BluegrassReport.org

KY-2 race: Lewis surprises everyone by dropping out

Well, I don't think anybody saw THAT coming.

"That" was the surprise, last-minute withdrawal of Rep. Ron Lewis (R-Cecilia) from the Second District race.  Instead, claiming that Washington wasn't as fun since the Democrats took over last year, he pulled out and put his chief of staff, Daniel London, in his place.

Now McConnell's in a tizzy, and he's thrown his weight behind state Sen. Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green) who filed after somehow hearing that Lewis was going to get out.  I'm still wondering how he found out.

And, of course, let's not forget that the Democrats in the race are both from Daviess County.  While I'd rather have avoided a primary in this race, evidently Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire, who will face state Sen. David Boswell in that very primary, didn't care what I thought.

Bear in mind, though, that Boswell has much more name recognition in the district and has a good, sound record on which to run.  Haire, however, is almost totally unknown outside of Daviess County.  For those unfamiliar with him, it should be known that Haire was the driving force behind a relatively unpopular countywide smoking ban a couple of years ago, and he has also been dead set against even the discussion of consolidating the governments of Owensboro and Daviess County.  The latter stand comes at a time when many at the grass roots level want to at least explore the concept.

With his greater name recognition and connections in and out of the district, and the fact that Boswell has not taken any seriously unpopular stands on the issues through the years, I've gotta believe that David has a huge advantage here.

PoliticalBase.com

I'm sorry this post is so long overdue, but I want to formally introduce the new political project that I've made mention of some some time.

I'm really excited to announce that I've partnered with Shelby Bonnie, the co-founder of CNET -- one of the world's first online media companies -- and a Kentuckian -- on a site called Political Base.

I hope you'll add it to your rotation of political sites you regularly visit. Click here for the introductory post I wrote, as well as the very nice story The New York Times published about us, and the project, last week.

What you'll notice about the site is that it's a neat collision of politics and technology. On the front page you'll see the more familiar political news/blog content, but you'll notice that the site has a very extensive community and user-generated component with an ever-growing wiki function to allow users to populate pages on politicians, business leaders, governments, media, and pretty much whatever else users wish to create. The site also has a third feature -- tools. Aside from integrating all FEC data on individual contributions, we also have up-to-date polling, and an AP news feed that updates by the minute. (I intend to expand on both functions in the coming months as well as building out a more prominent state-based election pages).

I'm the managing editor of the site as well as the front page writer, and while much of what you'll see right now is related to the presidential race, I'm looking forward to delving deep into what's going on in the states (as I did with BGR), and that includes keeping tabs on what's happening in Kentucky.

In a lot of ways, Political Base will be a lot like BGR. I'll spend a good deal of my time providing some context to the daily happenings in the political world, offer my analysis based on my experience in the trenches, shine light on where the media isn't living-up to its promises, and placing a special emphasis on state-based politics, campaigns and an examination of local trends and issues likely to be harbingers of coming national change. And unlike BGR, I actually have a budget and small staff, including a young journalist to work on the original content I loved to do on BGR.

So, if you liked what I did with BGR, I'm hopeful you'll be just as pleased with the broader vision of Political Base. The one caveat is that I'm not inclined to jump into races in a direct and active way. While I won't be shy about criticism, I'm inclined to keep an arms-length distance between my work and any candidate. Though I never took money from any campaign during my time on BGR, I certainly was not reluctant to actively support and promote candidates over the past few years. My focus at Political Base will be more community and analysis, and less activism.

Meanwhile, BGR isn't going anywhere. I've been in discussion to have some new people take over the site on a day-to-day basis and have offered to contribute on a regular and consistent basis, especially on the things happening in Kentucky that have some national significance.

Finally, this site has meant so much to me and the incredible readership and community we developed really did play a significant role in the remarkable changes to Kentucky political system over the past few years. I hope you are all as proud of those accomplishments as I am. None of it could have happened without your contributions, debate, and support. I'm also proud that we had a robust Republican community, as well. While I know they didn't agree with me on many things, I hope that they appreciated the principled stands we took, as we tried to hold Democrats to those same standards, even though we were never shy about our partisan support.

So, while this isn't a good bye -- because I intend to stay active on BGR now that the new project is off the ground -- I do hope you'll spend some time at Political Base.

Best, Mark

Greg Fischer Announces for U.S. Senate

 
Greg Fischer, a Kentucky businessman and entrepreneur, is throwing his hat into the Democratic primary today to unseat Senator Mitch McConnell. Like Andrew Horne, Greg Fischer is announcing his campaign via the Internet on his campaign Web page at gregfischer.com.

Mr Fischer is smart to reach out to the netroots community by launching his candidacy in this way. He's also assembling a top-tier campaign team composed of  media strategist John Lapp, the former DCCC wunderkind with Kentucky roots, and pollster Fred Yang, who did the polling for the Behsear-Mongiardo campaign.

Kentucky Democrats are lucky to have a candidate of Greg's stature and promise to join this race. Let's congratulate Greg and may the best candidate win. Good luck!

Below is the official campaign release:

FISCHER ANNOUNCES FOR U.S. SENATE

                  Kentucky Entrepreneur and Businessman
                Greg Fischer Launches Campaign for Change

       "It's time for real change in Washington - and to get it,
            we need to change the people we send there."

Louisville, Kentucky - Democrat Greg Fischer announced his candidacy for
U.S. Senate today, challenging Senator Mitch McConnell.  A web
announcement video, text, and brief biography of Greg Fischer are
enclosed.

www.gregfischer.com

New Poll Shows McConnell's Vulnerability Waning?

Politico has the story of a new poll out, conducted by Voter/Consumer Research in which McConnell's approval rating appears to be back in the favorable range at a comfortable 61% rating.

That alone should be disappointing enough, but the poll also shows that the man who has been considered by many in the Kentucky blogosphere to be the best candidate to knock Mitch off might not be the voters' favorite:

Almost two-thirds of the electorate were unaware or had no impression of Lunsford; significantly fewer voters knew of Fischer and Horne. Fischer was widely recognized, but most voters seemed to have no opinion of him.

Is this bad news for the Horne campaign?  Who knows.  But it's bad news for McConnell if he has to start a year before his re-election running ads, completely unopposed and with no Democratic nominee picked to take him on.  As I mentioned in my previous post, it will take a united Democratic party to knock off the Grim Reaper.  Now let's get down to the business of knocking those approval ratings back down to where they belong, below 50% by exposing the real Mitch McConnell.

The DSCC Hits Mitch Hard

Just out on the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's website is a new edition of the Mitch McConnell year in review including such titanic mistakes as his vote in opposition of a war funding bill that would have resulted in a change in course in Iraq, his calling Governor Fletcher "the best governor for Louisville in my lifetime" shortly before that hand-picked McConnell Machine Governor lost by 18 points in one of the biggest, nastiest landslides our commonwealth has ever witnessed, and his holding a multi-million dollar fundraiser with Mr. 29% approval-rating, George "Dubya" Bush.

Let's face it.  This clown has got to go.  It may not be easy, but with a strong candidate and a united front among Democrats, he can be defeated.  God only knows our Commonwealth and country deserve for him to be.

I'm Back...

Folks, I'm so sorry for my continued absences of late. On Monday, I'll have a formal announcement about the new national project I'll be working on (and have been for the past month) and am so very excited to share it with all of you.

In the meantime, I wanted to offer-up my quick analysis of last night's wild New Hampshire primary and would love to hear your thoughts and analysis as well.

As someone who's been in politics for a while, last night's victory by Hillary Clinton (D) in the New Hampshire Primary was simply astounding. Sure, pollsters will miss the mark from time to time, but nothing like this, though I suspect the polling was actually accurate because polls are simply a snapshot in time and things can change very quickly in campaigns. Apparently, in New Hampshire, they changed in about 48 hours.

So, what did happen? Who really knows. My suspicion is that a combination of things occurred.

First, I think the over-the-top and pretty vicious piling-on that the media did to Clinton in the past few days evoked a backlash, particularly among women. Despite a withering assault, Clinton stay focused and didn't wilt, which is not a bad trait for someone wanting to be president. Also, her well-publicized emotional moment surely didn't hurt her (again, particularly among women) as it helped to humanize a candidate who often comes across as emotionless on the campaign trail (recall the big bump after Al kissed Tipper at the 2000 Democratic convention).

Secondly, since independent voters -- who strongly preferred Barack Obama (D) over Clinton -- are such a large component of each party's primary turnout, I have to wonder how many independents saw the same thing we did -- that Obama was pulling away in the polls while Mitt Romney (R) was making-up ground against John McCain (R) -- and a chunk of them decided very late to vote in the race they felt was more competitive, and backed McCain instead.

Thirdly, Obama's candidacy has always been a risky one to some degree in that they have placed a premium on getting younger voters, and first-time voters, to participate at a level we've not seen in a generation. Did those voters manage to turnout in Iowa because the race was so close (per the polls), it was the first election, and because they believed they were part of history, but those same voters didn't turnout in New Hampshire at the same level because they didn't feel the same sense of urgency?

Who knows? Certainly, a 10 to 15 point turnaround in 48 hours wasn't the result of any one thing. But it was a remarkable evening and has surely boosted Clinton in a way that no straight-up three point victory could have accomplished.

As a Democrat who has not hitched his wagon to any candidate (I actually like all four of the major candidates), I think allowing the process to go beyond two small states -- that are not representative of America in most measurements -- is a very good thing. Democrats deserve a lengthier opportunity to scrutinize the candidates before they head-off to the Super Bowl. There's a lot to like about Obama, but I want to see him tested. Recall he had no real Republican opponent when he cruised to the US Senate as whackjob Alan Keyes flew to Illinois to step into the void and challenge him, and got waxed.

So, I'm glad we'll get to see how Obama responds to the jolt he received when everyone was ready to coronate him yesterday afternoon. Meanwhile, we all watched Clinton get off the mat and claw her way to victory. I've never loved her but her performance over the past few days has certainly earned my respect.

"What a way to start an administration ..."

You just know that thought has to be going through Governor Beshear's mind as he looks for places to trim Kentucky's budget.

We could debate long and loudly about the reasons for our Commonwealth's budget woes.  But the fact remains that throughout the campaign, Ernest Fletcher and his goons painted the rosiest of pictures, all in an effort to win re-election.

Now, however, our new Governor has to pick up the shattered pieces of that picture (Medicaid, school funding, and so on) and figure out how to make them fit back together in a smaller frame.

All I can say is that no stone need be left unturned when it comes to resolving this crisis.  It's going to be painful for some of our fellow Kentuckians; that much is certain.  This is the time for "thinking outside the box," and here's what I'd do right away if I were in our Governor's shoes:

1. Push casino gaming, and push it hard.  I know this is already in the works.  Personally, I'm not a gambler, but the fact is that casinos have proven to be a major financial shot in the arm elsewhere, and we're missing the boat (no pun intended) by letting our neighboring states pass us by with their casinos.
2. Propose an increase in the cigarette tax.  I'm a smoker, and an increase in the cigarette tax would adversely affect my wallet, but I think the Governor is wrong to dismiss an increase out of hand, particularly at this time.
3. Increase the gasoline tax.  I know, I know, it's another unpopular idea with gas at $3+ a gallon, but we've got to do something if we want to continue to improve and maintain our highway system, and, to a great extent, there's not enough money now to do either.
4. Speaking of our highway system, we have far too many miles of roads in Kentucky that are maintained by the state (I'd appreciate it if someone could provide a number; I've been unable to nail it down).  Other states have a statutory limit on the number of miles of road that are state-maintained.  This should be looked at closely.

I can hear some of you now, and you're probably wondering why I would propose some of these things.  We've got to get real, folks.  If we want to move Kentucky forward, if we want to solve the budget problem, we have to accept the reality that doing things the way they've been done in the past doesn't always work anymore.

It is going to take a concerted effort, on the part of the Administration and the General Assembly, and to a great extent those of us whom they serve and ultimately answer to, to fix this problem.  We must all come together.  Governor Beshear wants ideas, so let's put some out there, right here, right now. 

The Iowans have spoken

I must admit that I was somewhat surprised by the results of last night's Iowa Caucuses.  If you haven't heard, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won.

But the bigger surprise was the fact that Sen. Clinton and Mitt Romney and their millions of dollars and manpower couldn't deliver victory for themselves in the Hawkeye State.  It would definitely seem that Iowans are looking to Sen. Obama as the agent of change for the Democrats.  Ditto Gov. Huckabee, to a lesser extent, for the Republicans.  I say "to a lesser extent" because it was obvious where all of the energy was during the celebratory speeches last night.  The atmosphere around Obama was electric.  Huckabee played to a somewhat quieter, smaller audience.

The media makes much of both men's abilities to speak plainly to the people.  That's what we've been looking for all these years, and finally there are at least a couple of candidates who will do it.  I'm no soothsayer, but I do think that the folks in Iowa might be on to something by selecting the two candidates who seem to be able to tell it like it is.  Of course, we'll have a better picture in the weeks ahead as more than half the country goes to the polls.

It's just a shame we here in Kentucky won't get our chance to weigh in until the process is well and truly over with.

Your thoughts?

Shocking -- More Fletcher Fraud Discovered

I think we should get used to this, as we unpeel the Fletcher onion and understand the facts, not the fictions that the Fletcher-Rudolph campaign tried to spin this year as they trailed by 20 points in the polls:

Today:

"Most notably and despite claims last summer that the Medicaid budget was balanced, the truth is otherwise," Beshear said. "We are facing a current year shortfall of $389 million." About a third of that comes from general funds.

June 2007:

Medicaid Is Back In Black, Official Says

The state Medicaid program that was bleeding cash several years ago is now in the black, largely thanks to broad reforms that are beginning to take hold, Health and Family Services Secretary Mark Birdwhistell said today.

After updating a legislative committee on the progress the Medicaid program has made, Birdwhistell told reporters from the Herald-Leader and the Louisville Courier-Journal that the state will make its budget when the 2007 fiscal year ends on Saturday without having to push back some of its costs to the next budget cycle.

“We’re going to pay all the bills,” he said. “I feel very good about where we are.”

What's even more noteworthy about this dishonesty was that Fletcher named his own Chief of Staff, Stan Cave, acting budget director in September and apparently Cave's loyalty to his boss, and desperation to keep his job, trumped providing the public with honest and accurate data about the state's finances.

Crooks.

What Happened To That $700 Million Surplus Fletcher Told Us We Had Earlier This Year?

In case you weren't sure how big of a charlatan former Governor Fletcher (R) and his merry band of crooks really were:

Fletcher during the April 2007 KET Debate:

“Look at what I started off with a projected $1 billion shortfall at least by some accounting, $700 million at least by others. It was said there’d be a $1 billion shortfall, we’ve had over $700 million surplus now.”

And this e-mail from the Fletcher campaign during the Republican gubernatorial primary:

Dear Friend,
You may have recently received an e-mail from Anne Northup attacking Governor Fletcher yet again. It is unfortunate that her entire campaign is based on repeating arguments championed by the Democrats and attempting to use them for her personal ambitions.

As the first Republican Governor in 32 years, Governor Fletcher has begun to turn state government around. After inheriting a $1 billion deficit, we now have an over $700 million surplus.

Today:

Gov. Steve Beshear said today that the state is facing a $434 million budget shortfall this fiscal year and what he called a “budgetary crisis” over the next two years.

Rep. Geoff Davis (R) -- First-Rate Hypocrite

It's so sad that someone in the public trust would so deceive the voters into the type of congressman he would become if elected. What a fraud.

U.S. Rep Geoff Davis (R), December 2007:

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis ranked among the biggest congressional spenders of tax money to send mailings to constituents last year, which coincided with a tough re-election campaign for the Republican.

Davis, who represents the 4th District in northern Kentucky, sent out 716,803 pieces of mass mailings in 2006. His use of the congressional franking privilege carried an overall cost of $165,316 to taxpayers.

In the 435-member House, Davis was outspent on total mailing costs by four congressmen, all fellow Republicans.

Candidate Geoff Davis (R), August 2002:

At a press conference today, Boone County businessman and Republican candidate for Congress Geoff Davis issued a strongly worded challenge to Congressman Ken Lucas. Lucas has come under fire recently for using the Congressional privilege of taxpayer-funded mail, or franking, to send what amounts to full-color campaign literature.

...At the conference, Mr. Davis showed the clear pattern of increased spending during election years. Mr. Lucas spent $80,828 on franked mail in 2000 on postage alone, then only $21,389 in 2001 according to figures available at the Congressional Office of Budget and Management.

"Ken Lucas has violated the trust of Kentucky's hard working families by this obvious abuse of tax payer dollars," said Geoff Davis, Republican candidate for Congress.  "As Congressman, I will not use the hard-earned money of taxpayers to fund my campaign. I believe that the 4th District's next Congressman should help working families, not abuse their trust. In a time when many families are struggling, this shows how out of touch Mr. Lucas is with the District," remarked Mr. Davis.

Shameless hypocritical fraud.

This isn't the first time Davis has flaunted this pledge. Click here and the media's reaction here.

UPDATE (5:59 PM): Pat Crowley asks:

The mailings coincided with his re-election campaign against Dem Ken Lucas. What say you, conservative voters? Is Davis keeping his constituents informed or abusing the privilege in an election year?

Fletcher Named "Biggest Electoral Embarrassment of 2007" By Rothenberg Political Report

Another lump of coal for former Governor Fletcher (R), this courtesy of the widely-respected Rothenberg Political Report:

Biggest Electoral Embarrassment of 2007

Nominees:
• Ernie Fletcher (R-Ky.)
• Robin Weirauch (D-Ohio)
• Vladimir Putin (UR-Russia)
• Bart Peterson (D-Ind.)
• Jeannemarie Devolites Davis (R-Va.)

The winner: Peterson’s defeat for re- election as mayor of Indianapolis was the stunner of the year, but Fletcher’s was the most embarrassing. Fletcher.

A Belated Merry Christmas

Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas. I apologize for my sparse posts of late. New ones to follow...

Crall makes short list for Owensboro city manager, but he's not the only Republican refugee on the list

It looks like Brian Crall is going to find out if the late poet, Robert Frost, was right when he said, "Home is the place where, when you have to go there, they have to take you in."

According to WFIE-TV, Crall, who served as Gov. Fletcher's personnel secretary, has made the short list of candidates for the city manager position in Owensboro that will be vacated by Bob Whitmer in February.

The other candidates for the position are Matt McKillip, the outgoing mayor of Kokomo, Ind., and Bill Parrish, who is presently the city's street and sanitation superintendent.  Parrish has overseen the consolidation of the city's street and sanitation departments and is generally well-respected.

I got a chill when I saw McKillip's name on the list.

McKillip -- who, like Crall, is a Republican -- lost his bid for re-election in this year's primary, and is evidently looking to leave Kokomo far behind him after what could, at best, be considered a contentious term.  He's the mayor who was sued by a 16-year-old over access to a city-compiled list of e-mail addresses.  (He lost to the kid.)  He also ordered the removal of private property (specifically newspaper salesracks belonging to the Kokomo Tribune) from the city's streets, claiming "I had no idea they were yours."  Really?  Newspaper boxes?  Belong to a newspaper?  Surely not!

And now he wants to come to Kentucky and work his "magic" in our third largest city.

I'm hopeful that our city commission will perform the due diligence on McKillip (just Google him ... you'll see what I mean) and send him packing.  Even Crall would be a better choice than this guy, but if I were asked, I'd say Bill Parrish ought to get the nod.  He's done a fine job in his present position and deserves a shot.

Just my two cents.

UPDATE 12-20-07 5:15 PM: As Eddie noted in this entry's comments, Bill Parrish got the nod.  I can breathe again.  The best man got the job.

McConnell takes credit for "success" in Congress

The hubris of Mitch McConnell knows no bounds.  Now he and his GOP buddies are taking credit for "success" this year in Congress.  The C-J's Jim Carroll has the message from our senior Senator, who claims to have "actually enjoyed working with the distinguished Majority Leader (Harry Reid, D-Nev.) all year.

Whatever.

Carroll mentions that Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) rightly criticized Mitch for a year of "obstructionism."  I couldn't have said it better myself.

Hawpe "obsessed with defeating strong Republicans," Northup says

Did you catch Anne Northup's letter in yesterday's Courier-Journal?

The ex-Congresswoman takes on David Hawpe and does her dead level best to whip him from pillar to post. At best, it's an example of sour grapes. At worst, well, it's just patently outrageous.

I don't know David Hawpe personally.  I occasionally disagree with his columns, but he's held a lot of powerful feet to the fire over the years.  It's not an easy job, but he does it well.

Here are some priceless nuggets of "wisdom" from the letter:

The truth is, David Hawpe is obsessed with defeating strong Republicans who have conservative values, especially ones with competitive races. After 10 years of being one of those people, I can attest that he is abusive and dishonest.

He talked about his desire to defeat me in his speeches to public service organizations, in editorial board meetings with candidates for other offices, in his solicitations of leaders in predominantly Democratic areas to do more for my opponents, in statement upon statement to the Forum Fellows that got reported back to me, and in his constant derogatory references to me in totally unrelated columns.

Holy smokes!

Yes, that last one is ONE SENTENCE.  And she blusters on and on like that for quite a while.  It would be funny if I didn't find it so sad.  Keep in mind that all of this comes from a woman who lost not one but two elections within a matter of months.  If she thinks this is going to spark some sort of political comeback, I think she's wrong.

-----

On a lighter note, I'd like to thank Mark for keeping BGR up and running and for inviting me to post.  I probably won't make everyone happy all of the time -- being a reformed Republican, I might occasionally slip back into old habits out of, well, habit -- but please bear with me.

Merry Christmas!

Edwards files in Kentucky

For what it is worth, Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards has formally filed his papers in Secretary Grayson's office, making him the first candidate of either Party to do so.  His papers were filed yesterday.

JN

PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
	John	410 Market St., Ste. 400	Democrat	http://www.johnedwards.com
- - -	- - -	Chapel Hill, NC	12/18/2007
- - -	Edwards	North Carolina	No
- - -	- - -	27516

The GOP Factions (Kos)

I think Kos does an excellent job identifying the four main factions of the modern-day Republican Party:

Corporate Cons

These are Wall Street Republicans, hungry for big federal contracts, less business regulation, increased immigration, happy foreign trading partners, and the protection of the established corporate elite.

Government spending: Pro
Aggressive foreign policy: Against
Immigration: Pro
Traditional values: Irrelevant
Notables: Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Wall Street Journal editorial board

Paleocons

This are the old-school anti-communist, anti-immigrant, John Birch Society types. They loathe foreign entanglements, government spending, affirmative action, and multiculturalism.

Government spending: Against
Aggressive foreign policy: Against
Immigration: Against
Traditional values: Pro
Notables: Ron Paul, Robert Novak, Reagan Democrats

Theocons

This is the Christian Coalition/Moral Majority crowd, desperate for the wedding of state and religion, desperate to prevent the wedding of same sex couples. Unafraid to spend tax dollars on "faith-based" initiatives, while seeing immigrants as a replenishing source of new converts and religious foot soldiers.

Government spending: Pro
Aggressive foreign policy: Against
Immigration: Pro
Traditional values: Pro
Notables: Mike Huckabee, Pat Robertson, James Dobson

Neocons

These are the pointy headed "intellectuals" holed up at think tanks like the Project for a New American Century, moving their little armies around a Risk gameboard. Paranoid of the boogeyman under the bed, they feel secure only when dropping bombs on brown people overseas and are obsessed with keeping others as scared as they themselves feel.

Government spending: Pro
Aggressive foreign policy: Pro
Immigration: Against
Traditional values: Irrelevant
Notables: John McCain, Dick Cheney, Joe Lieberman, the Washington Post editorial board

Priorities

From a Republican reader:

I don't know if you've been following the the fellow who was charged  with murder in Lexington, got a medical furlough, then fled the state and was caught in Wisconsin. Wisconsin was ready to send him back, but couldn't because it hadn't received the formal request to return him to Kentucky. Guess who's job it was to send the Governor's Warrant for this murderer to be returned to custody? Guess who couldn't be bothered to actually send a piece of paper to Wisconsin?

Come on, guess.

He must have been too busy trying to find soft landings spots for his cronies on boards and commissions, some of which no longer exist, and just couldn't make time for such trifles...