BluegrassReport.org

New Poll Shows McConnell's Vulnerability Waning?

Politico has the story of a new poll out, conducted by Voter/Consumer Research in which McConnell's approval rating appears to be back in the favorable range at a comfortable 61% rating.

That alone should be disappointing enough, but the poll also shows that the man who has been considered by many in the Kentucky blogosphere to be the best candidate to knock Mitch off might not be the voters' favorite:

Almost two-thirds of the electorate were unaware or had no impression of Lunsford; significantly fewer voters knew of Fischer and Horne. Fischer was widely recognized, but most voters seemed to have no opinion of him.

Is this bad news for the Horne campaign?  Who knows.  But it's bad news for McConnell if he has to start a year before his re-election running ads, completely unopposed and with no Democratic nominee picked to take him on.  As I mentioned in my previous post, it will take a united Democratic party to knock off the Grim Reaper.  Now let's get down to the business of knocking those approval ratings back down to where they belong, below 50% by exposing the real Mitch McConnell.

McConnell takes credit for "success" in Congress

The hubris of Mitch McConnell knows no bounds.  Now he and his GOP buddies are taking credit for "success" this year in Congress.  The C-J's Jim Carroll has the message from our senior Senator, who claims to have "actually enjoyed working with the distinguished Majority Leader (Harry Reid, D-Nev.) all year.

Whatever.

Carroll mentions that Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) rightly criticized Mitch for a year of "obstructionism."  I couldn't have said it better myself.

Lt. Col. Andrew Horne Reporting For Duty

While I realize John Y Brown III posted about this already this morning, I wanted to jump in and say how glad I am that we have a formal top-tier candidate -- Lt. Col. Andrew Horne (D) -- to take on President Bush's waterboy and the leader of the party that got us in the unimaginable debacle of the Iraq War -- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R).

While there is still another month or so before the filing deadline, I believe this is Horne's primary race to lose. I don't say that with any contempt for the other possible candidates who are considering a run, like Attorney General Stumbo (D) or even businessman Greg Fischer (D) -- but I believe Lt. Col. Horne matches-up well with McConnell, particularly on the most important issue of the day -- the war. While McConnell can lecture us about his bird's eye view of the situation in Iraq and then puts soldiers in his campaign ads, Horne is a real soldier who actually led Marine combat forces during this very war. And with one race under his belt (the 2006 Third Congressional District congressional primary), he will no doubt be a stronger, smarter, savvier opponent, as is usually the case with talented candidates the second time around.

Most here know that I supported current U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) last year against Horne. I supported John because I knew he would become the very rockstar congressman he now is. But once the primary was over, there were few stronger advocates for him than Andrew Horne, who campaigned his heart out to help John win the general election. My opposition to Horne was nothing more than my passionate support of Yarmuth. It was only after that November election that I got a chance to know Andrew on a personal level. He's a rock-solid person, has a remarkable story to tell -- and has been doing so this past year on behalf of VoteVets.org -- and Kentucky would be well-served with Lt. Col. Horne reporting for duty in the United States Senate on its behalf.

So, I'm very happy Lt. Col. Horne has volunteered to serve us once again and I look forward to a spirited primary campaign and a general election ass-kicking of the highest order of the man who has offered us these incomprehensible bits of wisdom:

• “I’ve never met a finer man than our governor, Ernie Fletcher,” said McConnell. “I’m proud of Ernie Fletcher. I’m proud of Glenna Fletcher. And I’m proud of the image they present for our state.” (link)

• Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell of Kentucky called Bush "one of the great presidents in the history of the United States." (link)

• Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said the war in Iraq has been an "extremely successful undertaking." (link)

• Senator Mitch McConnell called Rumsfeld “a spectacular secretary of defense, one of the best in American history." (link)

Don't you think Kentucky deserves someone with better judgment to serve them in the U.S. Senate?

Me too.

http://andrewhorne.org/

SurveyUSA -- McConnell With Lowest Approval Rating Ever

Not good news for U.S. Senator McConnell (R).

Turns out that the latest SurveyUSA numbers are in and his job approval rating is at its lowest level ever in the polls 31 months of tracking, and for the first time his disapproval is higher than his approval.

U.S. Sen. McConnell (R) Job Approval (10/12-14 results)
Approve 44 (49)
Disapprove 47 (45)

Says SurveyUSA:

For First Time, Kentucky’s McConnell Has Negative Approval Rating

In 31 months of SurveyUSA tracking, United States Senator from Kentucky Mitch McConnell has had job approval ratings ranging from a low of 48% to a high of 56%. His Net Job Approval, determined by subtracting disapproval from approval, ranged from Plus 4 last month to Plus 24 in June of 2005.

This month, for the first time, McConnell has a negative Net Job Approval — Minus 3. His approval rating is at 44%, the lowest since tracking began in May of 2005, and his disapproval is at an all-time high of47%.

Says Mark Hebert:

McConnell's job approval rating is lowest in his hometown of Louisville and 15 surrounding counties where just 40% of those polled think McConnell is doing a good job.

Kentucky's Clear Blue Shift

One of the recent signs that have made more predict that U.S. Sen. McConnell (R) is in for a rougher re-election fight than expected is the fact that President Bush's (R) job approval numbers in Kentucky have plummeted to a disastrously low 35% approve and 65% disapprove.

Indeed, those numbers do suggest that the man who has proudly defended and advanced the Bush agenda ought to be very concerned. But a closer look at those numbers tell an even more problematic story for McConnell.

You see, while Bush is becoming less popular in Kentucky, he's also getting less popular in the other 49 states, so simply using Bush's plunging numbers in Kentucky only tell part of the story. But where things are much more instructive is to see where Bush has dropped more than elsewhere over the past few years.

When you do that, you'll notice that in only one state (New Mexico) has Bush's job performance tumbled more than it has in Kentucky -- among those states which SurveyUSA has been testing monthly since May 2005 -- when you compare the differences in President Bush's net rating (approval minus disapproval):

State	Nov 2007	May 2005	Diff
New Mexico	-35 (32/67)	-4 (46/50)	-31
Kentucky	-27 (35/62)	+2 (49/47)	-29
California	-44 (26/70)	-15 (39/54)	-29
New York	-54 (22/76)	-25 (35/60)	-29
Minnesota	-30 (34/64)	-2 (47/49)	-28
Massachusetts	-54 (22/76)	-26 (35/61)	-28
Virginia	-32 (33/65)	-6 (44/50)	-26
Kansas	-21 (38/59)	+4 (49/45)	-25
Washington	-35 (31/66)	-10 (42/52)	-25
Oregon	-36 (31/67)	-13 (42/55)	-23
Alabama	-16 (41/57)	+6 (50/44)	-22
Wisconsin	-33 (32/65)	-12 (42/54)	-21
Missouri	-28 (35/63)	-10 (42/52)	-18
Iowa	-33 (32/65)	-17 (39/56)	-16
Ohio	-29 (34/63)	-20 (38/58)	-9
AVERAGE	-33.8	-9.9	-23.9

That - along with the plummeting of new Kentucky Republican voters over the past two years and this month's landslide defeat of Governor Fletcher (R) -- really paints a picture that a political realignment is happening here in a noticeable way and these dynamics couldn't be happening to McConnell at a worse time.

Does that lead me to believe that Kentucky is becoming a Democratic state again? No, I wouldn't go that far.

But I do believe these trends tell us that Kentucky is much more politically comparable to the Midwest swing states than it is to the South, which is how the state seemed to behave for much of the past decade, until around 2005 when we began to see a subtle but steady change in the political attitudes of Kentucky voters, leading to John Yarmuth's (D) defeat of Anne Northup (R) in the 3rd congressional district and this year's defeat of Fletcher and plunging approval numbers for McConnell.

This is why McConnell should be even more concerned and why the environment is right for a serious challenge of both U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis' (R) and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield's (R) congressional seat, as well as the take-back of the state Senate.

(Note: While SurveyUSA has conducted monthly Bush approval tracking in the states since May 2005, about a year ago it narrowed its month survey from all 50 states to 15 states, which is why the above chart only lists those states.)

More On McConnell's Vulnerability

Congressional Quarterly has an interesting story this morning on the efforts to oust U.S. Senator McConnell (R) next year. Even in Kentucky, voters are fed-up with McConnell being a shameless and dishonest apologist for the disastrous Bush agenda, that on top of his recent "gift" to the state of the disastrous Fletcher administration.

Here's an excerpt:

Dems Test Odds on Top GOP Sen. McConnell in ‘08 Kentucky Horse Race
By Jessica Benton Cooney, CQ Staff

The Democrats’ plans to stage a serious challenge to Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell , the current Senate minority leader, are still in their formative stages. Some national Democratic strategists are high on state Auditor Crit Luallen — she was easily re-elected in the state’s Nov. 5 election — and state Attorney General Greg Stumbo is another possible contender. Neither, however, has committed to the Senate race.

Democrats are, nonetheless, emboldened by Democrat Steve Beshear’s trouncing of ethics controversy-plagued Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher — a McConnell ally — in the state’s off-year election. And they are sounding increasingly confident that they can at least seriously test McConnell’s hold on his Senate seat, which until not long ago appeared an iron grip. CQ Politics currently rates the race as Republican Favored, but is closely watching developments.

Moreover, it appears that McConnell’s rise to the top of the Senate Republican ranks last January is hardly an unalloyed blessing as he prepares for his 2008 campaign. While McConnell will run on the prestige and legislative clout that his position as minority leader provides, the post also has made him a much more visible target for attacks from Democratic politicians and from Web-based activists allied with the Democratic Party.

Democrats portray McConnell as the leading congressional standard-bearer for the policies of President George W. Bush , whose approval ratings in Kentucky — as in most of the nation — have tanked since he swept to victory in 2004 with 60 percent of the vote in the Southern border state. A Survey USA poll taken Nov. 9-11 showed 35 percent of Kentucky respondents approved of the job Bush is doing as president, to 62 percent who disapproved, figures driven heavily by the sharp decline in public support for the prolonged U.S. military intervention in Iraq.

McConnell is accused by his critics of using filibuster threats and other parliamentary maneuvers to obstruct the will of the majorities Democrats won in both the Senate and the House in the 2006 midterm elections.

...Apart from deep policy differences, there are Democrats who are anxious for their party to go after McConnell just to give the Republicans a taste of their own medicine. The Republicans’ successful effort in 2004 to oust Democrat Tom Daschle, who then served as minority leader, from his Senate seat in South Dakota broke a longstanding (albeit unspoken) tradition by the parties of laying off each other’s top congressional leaders in the name of legislative comity. Democrats still fume over efforts by the Bush White House, led by adviser Karl Rove, to encourage the strong candidacy of Republican former Rep. John Thune, and the South Dakota visit by Tennessee Republican Sen. Bill First, then the majority leader, to campaign against Daschle.

The decline of the bipartisan “hands off” approach to legislative leaders is just one of the events that underscores how times have changed since McConnell last ran for re-election in 2002.

Beshear Taps Jennifer Moore To Be KDP Chair, Nathan Smith As Vice-Chair

This morning, Gov.-elect Beshear (D) has recommended that Jennifer Moore be elected Chair of the Kentucky Democratic Party and that Northern Kentuckian Nathan Smith be elected Vice-Chair:

Governor-elect Steve Beshear today announced his intention to recommend the election of Jennifer Moore, age 33, as Chair of the Kentucky Democratic Party and Nathan Smith, age 36, as Vice-Chair.  Moore, who has served since June as the Party's Vice Chair, would replace Jonathan Miller, who is resigning as Chair to assume his duties as Secretary of the Finance and Administration Cabinet in the Beshear Administration.

Governor-elect Beshear will make his recommendation at the next meeting of the Kentucky Democratic Party's State Central Executive Committee which will be scheduled for Saturday, December 1, 2007. Pursuant to the Party's bylaws, Moore will serve as Acting Chair of the party until the State Central Executive Committee votes.

Obviously, I'm thrilled with the move as I've been a broken record over the past few years in highlighting the political rock-star that is Jennifer Moore -- as many of you have.

Also, I really love the move of recommending Nathan Smith to be Vice-Chair. Northern Kentucky Democrats have shown a great deal of muscle and organization of late in a political environment that is not in their favor. Despite the shifting landscape, NKY Dems have been very aggressive in targeting their efforts (recall the unexpectedly narrow losses in the state House last year by Randy Blankenship and Linda Klembara), and arguably the biggest story on Election Night this year was Beshear's double-digit margins in Kenton and Campbell Counties and losing the staunchly conservative Boone County by a stunning 300 votes, and Nathan has played a very large role in those successes.

As Vice Chair, Smith will be crucial in helping to recruit candidates to challenge both State Sen. Damon Thayer (R) and State Sen. Jack Westwood (R) next year, which is crucial to taking back the state Senate, the second biggest target out there next year for Kentucky Democrats after defeating U.S. Senator McConnell (R).

A great move.

Cillizza, WaPo: McConnell Now Among 10 Most Vulnerable Seats

It's official: U.S. Senator McConnell's (R) growing re-election concerns has finally landed him on a Top 10 most vulnerable list.

He debuts as #10 on Chris Cillizza's latest rankings on The Fix, his Washington Post political column:

10. Kentucky: OK, we admit we're intrigued by the prospect of a serious race in the Bluegrass State. While we believe Democrats are trying to read too much into how Ernie Fletcher's loss in the governor's race last week impacts Sen. Mitch McConnell's (R) reelection chances, there is clear evidence that the Senate minority leader could be in for a real race next fall. McConnell's decision to hit the television airwaves this month with ads touting his leadership role and what it means for the state is a tacit recognition on the part of his campaign that this race could be real. Much depends on the identity of the Democratic nominee. State Auditor Crit Luallen is the first choice of national Democrats, and a recent poll put her well within striking distance of McConnell. If Luallen decides against the race, Democrats will have to turn to a second-tier of candidates, including including state Attorney General Greg Stumbo, 2006 congressional candidate Andrew Horne and wealthy businessman Greg Fischer. Regardless of who Democrats nominate, McConnell will be ready. He is as tough a campaigner as they come, and this race will likely be expensive and bloody. (Previous ranking: N/A)

Also, recall what conservative columnist John David Dyche had to say last week:

A year ago, Kentucky Democrats had few thoughts of defeating Mitch McConnell next year. But times have changed.

“But is it possible that with the right combination of candidate and circumstances he could be beaten?” says Louisville attorney John David Dyche. “Sure he could.”

Fletcher Sychophants Urge Non-Merit Workers To "Occupy" New Administration's First Days "Getting Rid Of You"

While Governor Fletcher (R) has publicly pledged the fully support to the incoming Beshear-Mongiardo Administration, some of his sycophants have jumped into their rats holes and are imploring non-merit workers to force the incoming administration to "occupy" their first days having to "getting rid" of them.

Class acts:

To non-merit employees:
Do not resign, even if requested, unless you get an absolutely unbeatable job offer elsewhere. This goes for Cabinet secretaries all the way down to non-merit clerical secretaries. Make Beshear fire you on Dec. 11 after he takes office. That way, you can draw unemployment for awhile and not give him the satisfaction of starting with a clean slate. Make him occupy his first hours and days with the details of getting rid of you. In NASCAR parlance, it's time for you to make your car very wide.

These are the same anonymous whack-jobs who implored fellow Republicans to refuse to support the only two Republicans who actually won on Election Day -- Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) and Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer (R).

Looks like Loony Larry Forgy (R) will have some friends if he decides to challenge U.S. Sen. McConnell (R) next year...

Run Larry, Run!

As a Democrat, I love this. But Larry Forgy (R) is the biggest whack-job I've ever seen in politics.

From today's The Hill:

Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Forgy has made no secret of his anger over what he sees as McConnell’s role in dividing the state party by throwing Fletcher under the bus at the onset of his administration’s scandals and backing former Rep. Anne Northup in the GOP primary last spring. He believes this led to Fletcher’s defeat this week.

McConnell officially stayed neutral in the primary, and Fletcher’s campaign team was grateful to McConnell for what it said were his exhaustive efforts on Fletcher’s behalf, according to Piper.

But Forgy is furious, and he told The Hill Thursday he is not ruling out an independent bid to unseat McConnell, though he insists he doesn’t want to be a spoiler.

Forgy, who was the party’s nominee for governor in 1995, said he is “pretty sore” at McConnell and the state party for what he sees as their betrayal of Fletcher.

“The only difference between that and cannibals is that cannibals normally don’t eat their friends,” Forgy said.

While I previously mocked Forgy as one of the Four Horsemen of Fletcher's Apocalypse (along with Brett Hall, Brian Goetll, and Marcus Carey), there's still time for Larry and friends to pull a two-fer and bring down McConnell as well, all within 12 months.

Run Larry, Run!

(Hat tip: Pol Watchers)

Two Days After Election, DSCC Launches Ad Against McConnell Citing His Praise Of Fletcher

Ouch. This one is going to hurt, courtesy of the DSCC. (Click here for their press release).

No doubt, U.S. Senator McConnell (R) will start tapping his campaign war chest right away to try to stop the bleeding:

By the way, McConnell has a much bigger problem than Fletcher as he moves forward and that is he'll have to defend and promote the Bush Administration all the way through 2008, while Bush doesn't seem to give a rat's ass about how his 2008 agenda will affect the political environment since he doesn't have to help a vice president running for the top spot.

How in the world will McConnell straight face the voters as Bush continues to build towards war in Iran or continues to veto important programs like SCHIP that more than 80% of Americans support -- while McConnell shepards through such idiocy in the Senate?

That will be his Achilles' Heel. Mark my words.

McConnell is not running in a static environment where all he must do is rehabilitate an image based on the past. He'll continue to be under fire for unpopular policies from a president whose job approval rating is down to an unimaginable 24% in at least one poll.

Kentucky Mitch has become Washington Mitch, and based on Bush's own dismal job numbers in Kentucky, McConnell is a very vulnerable man right now, even in his Old Kentucky Home (despite the fact he was born in Alabama). Just remember that Hillary Clinton (D) is currently out-performing McConnell --in Kentucky -- in hypothetical general election match-ups for 2008, and his own job ratings are consistently under 50%.

Not good news for McConnell. Expect him to hit the panic button right away and go on television ASAP.

Ellen Williams Unplugged

I got a verbatim transcript of former Kentucky GOP Chair Ellen Williams' KET Election Night interview that I referenced yesterday:

Bill Goodman:  What do you expect as far as opposition to Sen. McConnell?

Ellen Williams:  You know, I really don't --  uh -- it's hard to say.  Sen. McConnell will stand on his own record -- uh -- he'll run on what's he's done for Kentucky and what he's done for this country.  And if anyone wants to run against him, you know, I wish 'em luck.  I wouldn't wanna run against him.  He's a formidable opponent, he's always well funded, uh, he's always strategically superior and, uh, you know, I think Larry Forgy has been talking about possibly running tonight, and I would say to Larry, ya know, let's stop.  I know you're mad, you've never won a race but, ya know, let's don't run against him -- and leave it go, just leave it go!

The reader who sent this to me noted that Williams' only outrageous remark was earlier in the interview when she said McConnell did everything he could to help get Fletcher re-elected, though KET analyst John McGarvey quickly noted that McConnell mostly had treated Fletcher like he was radioactive.

Ellen Williams Tells Larry Forgy To "Stop"

Though often an adversary, I've always been a big fan of former Kentucky GOP Chair Ellen Williams, and if you watched her live interview during KET's Election Night coverage you'd know why.

When asked about the chatter that Larry Forgy (R) is considering a challenge to U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell (R) next year, she remarked:

"I would say to Larry, stop... you've never won a race... let it go... Mitch McConnell has won race after race."

I love Ellen.

(Note: This quote is what conservative blogger, Cyberhillbilly, posted on his site, but I'd love to find her complete verbatim remarks because I remember them even more "candid" than the excerpt above when I watched them live.)

McConnell Lunacy So Early In The Morning?

In today's Kentucky Enquirer:

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, the titular head of the Kentucky GOP, said Fletcher "ran a hard-fought campaign that showed a deep commitment to the Commonwealth and to the principles that propelled him into office four years ago.

"He lost the race, but won our respect," McConnell said in a statement.

Senator, please tell us what you believe was respectful of the race Fletcher ran.

Was it the gay-bashing robo calls or the equally disturbing one by Pat Boone? Or was it the hypocritical positions he took on expanded-gaming? Or maybe it was the dishonest attacks he launched against both Steve Beshear (D) and Anne Northup (R) -- who you left to twist in the wind after encouraging her to run in the primary in the first place? Or maybe it was Fletcher's attempt to drop any pretense of running for re-election on issues and instead trotted out the tired old smears of gays, guns, Ten Commandments, immigration, abortion, or his dishonest attacks on Kentucky Central? Or was it the "San Francisco treat" comments while you stood nearby? Or was it the shaking-down of state contractors and state employees for campaign contributions?

Please tell us, Senator. What part of Fletcher's re-election campaign caused him to win your respect, as you now state?

U.S. Senator Crit Luallen (D)?

(Note: I fear this post from late last night got buried too quickly, so I wanted to put it back on top for a while longer...)

Not to jump ahead so quickly, but I wanted to report what a reader just e-mailed me:

Mark:

I was at a Democratic Senate Campaign Committee fundraiser tonight at Senator Kennedy's home in Washington.  Senator Schumer spoke about next year's senate races to the 100 or so people attending. He talked most specifically about Kentucky and said that Crit Luallen - he mentioned her by name and the fact that she is now the state auditor - will soon be entering the race against McConnell (I think he said she has "pretty much decided to enter the race" or words to that effect).  He noted the DSCC polling showed her trailing McConnell by only three points (46 to 43 - close to the recent public polling). Anything more certain being reported in Kentucky at the moment?  Schumer made it sound like it was essentially a done deal, and he added that the DSCC was going to significantly back her.

We'll talk more about this race in the coming days, but nothing would delight me more (and make me want to keep BGR running through 2008) than Crit taking on Big Bad Mitch. That would be a race for the ages. I hope she does it!

Denial Sets In For Republicans

I can't help but notice that some of our Republican friends are posting comments this morning that last night's election told us nothing other than the voters dislike Governor Fletcher (R) and that Democrats didn't gain anything last night and that U.S. Senator McConnell (R) is just fine.

No doubt, there was a palpable feeling that Fletcher needed to be ousted, and that surely drove much of the voters' desire. Those are cute talking points, but they fail to address things like this:

1. Why has new voters registering as Republican plummeted since 2005, after reaching parity that year, especially its precipitous drop for five consecutive months heading into yesterday's election?
                     
2. Why are Senator McConnell's (R) favorables and re-elect numbers under that magical 50% mark in most independent polls?
                        
3. Why is Hillary Clinton (D) is outperforming Senator McConnell (R) in Kentucky in hypothetical general election match-up?

And that does even address President Bush's (R) rock-bottom job approval in Kentucky, the fact that Democrats are in full-control of two crucial congressional districts, that Fletcher lost the three Northern Kentucky counties by seven points -- when Republican leadership made clear in recent weeks that NKY would remain a Fletcher strong-hold.

It's understandable that Republicans are going to try to find the silver-lining in last night's results, but it's important to separate fact from fiction and we're already seeing them spin their little fables, hoping the media will report the same.

Kentucky has not magically transformed itself into a blue state, but voters sure seems a lot more willing to embrace Democrats of late, based on their actions at the voting booth, how they are registering to vote, and their attitudes that recent polling has made very clear.

Though, as a Democrat, I sure hope this state of denial lingers for a while...

Not So Fast

As we get ready for a victory tonight that may well double the margin Governor Fletcher (R) received in 2003, here's a look back at a few of the comments made by Republicans four years ago this evening:

"We will take this mandate tonight and move this state forward," Fletcher told his victory celebration at a Lexington hotel.

...

Republican U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell: "Thirty-two years of drift, 32 years of incompetence, 32 years of corruption have come to an end tonight."

...

"Most of you have been foot-soldiers in this revolution that started back in 1994 that swept the congressional delegation, swept the state Senate and now we're another step to completing the job with electing a brilliant, outstanding, incredible man of extraordinary integrity in Ernie Fletcher," said McConnell.

...

Fletcher's supporters said his win was about Fletcher's abilities, and not just about the idea of change. Campbell County Republican Chairwoman Barb Haas said Fletcher, a doctor and former fighter pilot with an engineering degree, won on his own merits, not on the misgivings of Democrats.

"We will never have a more qualified governor," said Haas, one of many Northern Kentuckians who attended the Republican victory party in Lexington.

...

Kentucky's last Republican governor, Louie Nunn, said Fletcher's sincerity and life experience won the race for him.

"I cannot think in my lifetime of a governor with the qualifications that he will bring to the job, even me. I think he will be remarkable. And I hope I don't sound giddy tonight," Nunn said.

...

"Western Kentucky has been left out by the Frankfort establishment and they're tired of it," said Scott Jennings, senior political advisor for the Republican Party of Kentucky.

"It was a repudiation of the last 30 years, and I think they said we just aren't going to take it anymore."

If Fletcher claimed a 10-point victory as a "mandate" what does one call a 20-point victory?

In Final Days, Not Much Hope Remains For Fletcher (Al Cross)

It's so hard to believe -- given how historic Governor Fletcher's (R) 2003 victory was -- that Al Cross' final column in the Sunday before the 2007 election would be titled:

In final days, not much hope remains for Fletcher

I don't think I've ever been more excited about seeing someone get thrown out of office like the voters appear poised to do with Fletcher. His behavior during this general election has been an eye-opener for many, as he's every bit the out-of-touch, arrogant, hateful, hypocritical, dishonest, holier-than-thou nut that his political beginnings suggested (click here for a quick refresher).

Next up: U.S. Senator McConnell (R), Senate President David Williams (R), and the three Republican state Senate seats needed to take back the majority in 2008. How much fun will it be to maintain a constant focus on these guys for the next year? And how long overdue...

And The Next Kentucky Republican Party Chair Is....?

Rumors abound that former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R) is being lobbied to consider the position of Kentucky Republican Party chair effective November 10, 2007 which is when the RPK state central committee will again meet following what is widely expected to be one of their worst election cycles in a very long time.

While I believe such a move would be a very strong one for Republicans, allowing them to try to paint the past four years as an aberration and an awful mistake, and allowing the McConnell wing of the party to re-assume full control in anticipation of a competitive 2008 cycle, I'm told by one prominent insider that RPK is much more likely to elect Cathy Bailey, a McConnell loyalist and prominent fundraiser.

The thinking is that there are still too many raw feelings among Republicans following its brutal gubernatorial primary when Northup challenged the politically sickly Governor Fletcher (R), who was nonetheless, and unimaginably, renominated by Republicans in May (which will likely go down as one of the dumbest moves by Republicans in ages). The one issue with Bailey is that she currently serves as ambassador to Latvia and would not be able to start until early 2008.

Meanwhile, my Republican source says we should probably look for one more statewide run from Northup, most likely the 2010 Senate race when U.S. Senator Jim Bunning (R) vacates his seat, or so I'm told.

(Yes, I too thought Bunning said he was running for re-election.)

McConnell Spins Herald-Leader, Says All Is Well

There's a rule of thumb in politics that when an incumbent is polling under 50% for re-election against hypothetical candidates, it should raise red flags that there are serious problems.

Yesterday, the Herald-Leader/WTVQ reported devastating hypothetical general election match-ups for U.S. Senator McConnell (R). It showed him failing to crack 46% in any head-to-heads (among much lesser-known opponents), and was ahead of Auditor Crit Luallen (D) and U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (D) -- by a mere five points (45-40 and 46-41, respectively).

Disappointingly, the Herald-Leader allowed McConnell to spin these results as good news and even offered themselves up to publish McConnell's own self-reported internal polling which shows him to be a beloved figure -- contrary to the independent polls which clearly shows more than half of Kentucky is not approving of his job.

Recently, McConnell told the media that part of his re-election strategy will be to tie his Democratic opponent to what he presumes will be presidential nominee Hillary Clinton (D). But that raises an issue that the media might considering asking him (God-forbid we ask them to do too much) -- simply, according to last week's statewide polling about the 2008 presidential race, Hillary Clinton (D) leads Rudy Giuliani (R) by a 47 percent to 45 percent margin in Kentucky.

So here's the question for the good senator -- why is Hillary Clinton out-performing you in your own state?

In fact, Clinton leads Romney by a 50-41 margin and Huckabee by a 49-39 margin, again, in Kentucky. The only candidates that beat her, in Kentucky, are Thompson (47-45) and McCain (49-45). So, Clinton fails to fall below 45% in any general election match-up in Kentucky just like McConnell.

Hmmm. While McConnell might be able to adeptly spin the Herald-Leader, these numbers are a very, very bad sign for him, as Hillary Clinton is out-performing our senior senator in his own state...

Beshear: State Senate & McConnell Next Up

Steve Beshear (D) offered a peek at what to expect post-November in today's Ronnie Ellis story:

“I call Ernie Fletcher the great uniter,” Beshear told the crowd. “He’s united Democrats and Republicans and Independents. They ALL want to throw him out of Frankfort.”

He went on to say Democrats would take back the state Senate, now in Republican majority control and retire Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning in 2010 – “right after we take care of Mitch McConnell next year.”

Fletcher Planning Scorched-Earth Effort Against The Kentucky Republican Establishment For Not Backing Him?

One of the most remarkable things of the past year is the sheer number of prominent Republican insiders who have willingly communicated their frustrations about Governor Fletcher (R) directly to me, allowing BGR to be their vehicle for getting out their viewpoint and dropping interesting insider information on what's going on behind the scenes.

Not surprisingly, that's only increased of late, and I assure you we're not talking about second-level know-nothing local people who are coming forward.

The mosaic that is coming into very clear focus is that:

1. Fletcher doesn't care about anyone on the ticket other than himself;
                      
2. He would be more than happy if Trey Grayson (R) lost his re-election as he never got over Trey's flirting with running against him this year, and;
                     
3. Fletcher appears to be tying sticks of dynamite to key Republican establishments and is prepared to detonate them when he loses, blaming them generally for failing to help him during the Merit scandal and specifically for encouraging and backing Anne Northup's (R) primary challenge, which effectively sealed his general election fate.

Along those lines, I'm told by one top Republican insider that Robbie Rudolph (R), Fletcher's running mate, and Chief of Staff Stan Cave are actively meeting and encouraging Larry Forgy (R) to run in next year's Senate race as an independent. They either know they'd have no chance in a primary challenge, or they simply want to defeat Senator McConnell (R) as revenge for what he's done to Fletcher since the Merit scandal began in May 2005.

And it's hard not to conclude that Fletcher's disgraced, foul-mouthed former mouthpiece, Brett Hall, is ready to assist an independent Forgy bid, given his numerous slams of McConnell and Kentucky Republican Party leadership (before the current B Team came along in June), and his well-known close relationship with Loony Larry.

All this brings me back to Ted Jackson's comment about Fletcher early this year, which seems more true today than ever:

"Ernie Fletcher is the David Koresh of Kentucky Republican politics ... He's boarded the windows and locked the doors and said, 'Take it from us, we'll burn it to the ground.'"

It sure does appear that Fletcher is ready to help bring-down any Republican that failed to help him cover-up his law-breaking and save his political career, and burn down what remains of the Republican Party of Kentucky.

As a Democrat, I couldn't be happier for such fratricide, but even I have a tiny bit of sympathy (just a little) for the talented Kentucky Republicans who worked so hard up to 2003 to create a robust political machine and elect their first governor in 32 years, only to watch one moron, and his incompetent posse, tear down in a few years what took a few decades to fully build. The national climate only added to the disaster, just as the collapsed levees destroyed what the hurricane winds didn't.

Of course, it won't take Kentucky Republicans that long to rebuild, but they'll have to do so without the Governor's Mansion, without their prized 3rd Congressional District seat, with an enormous expansion of the Democratic majority in the state House, with a realistic possibility of losing their state Senate majority, with the possibility that their rising star (Trey Grayson) could lose his seat, with a public that has soured on countless Republican issues, and now with the possibility that Fletcher and his fanatical cronies may try to destroy McConnell's re-election hopes, if he didn't have enough to worry about already.

It's safe to say these are dog days for Kentucky Republicans. The political pendulum sure does wing back and forth, doesn't it?

UPDATE (11:13 AM): No sooner than posting the above did I receive an e-mail from another Republican insider on a related issue concerning this post from yesterday:

Mark,

I don't know if it was your post regarding Northup yesterday that sparked it or, as one of your posters said, the campaign was already in the works . . . but last night I received a phone call from a Republican higher up the party food chain than I.

The caller, knowing I am not a Fletcher fan, was wanting to talk about where we as a party go after his defeat.  Specifically, he was tossing out a few names as potential state party chairs.  He mentioned three names:  Anne Northup, Steve Pence and Jeff Hoover.

As I told him, I think that Pence might be too controversial.  I know many people that were not strong Fletcher people that still didn't like him because they felt he abandoned his duties as Lt. Governor.  I disagree with that but, oh well.  The concept of either Northup or Hoover as party chair was pretty interesting though.

The most interesting part of the call is the fact that the caller's loyalties do not lie with Northup, Hoover or Pence, but with another interested elected official.

Just thought you would be interested in knowing that this rumor may have some legs.

What Next For Kentucky Republicans?

A Republican reader asks:

Will Ernie Fletcher continue to be a force (albeit a terribly weakened one) in KY Republican politics after election day?  Where will the hardcore Fletcher supporters go?  Will they continue to cling to him like some deposed King or will they slither away and find new candidates to support and get patronage from?  Aside from Larry Forgy, who's not much of a threat, should McConnell be concerned about prominent Fletcher supporters next year?

I can't imagine Fletcher maintaining any public role with a real following after he's booted from office, but the reader raises a real interesting question. How will Kentucky Republicans regroup? Has McConnell become too damaged among a significant portion of his own party to re-gain control of it? Will they resemble Democrats of the past few years with different fiefdoms emerging? How quickly will Republicans clean house at the RPK? 

What do you think?

Courier-Journal: McConnell "Deliberately Untruthful"

Seems that Senator McConnell (R) shares one major similarity with Governor Fletcher (R): both have real problems with the truth.

Today's Courier-Journal editorial whacks McConnell for his office's attempt to smear a 12-year-old boy who came forward (along with his family) to publicly support the recent SCHIP legislation that Congress overwhelmingly passed -- and then shamefully lie about it:

McConnell Versus Truth
Courier-Journal Editorial

...Sen. McConnell was deliberately untruthful the next day, when he told WHAS-TV's Mark Hebert, "There was no involvement whatsoever." The senator will object to any suggestion of lying, but what else is it when you knowingly misrepresent facts?

It's clear what Mitch McConnell knew and when he knew it. It's clear he deceived the public when he answered Mr. Hebert as he did about the e-mail sent by his press agent.

Mr. McConnell is so used to Washington-style gamesmanship and inside-the-beltway rules that he has forgotten what constituents back in Kentucky want: the simple truth.

The Herald-Leader also took McConnell task in its editorial on the subject.

One final note: I get a good deal of e-mail asking why I'm not spending more time exposing some of McConnell's shameful episodes and comments of late. Simply, I'm trying to keep my focus and energy on the November 6th election. There will be plenty of time to spotlight the abject failures of McConnell's leadership after that, but I try to keep the focus on the election before us. Besides, BlueGrassRoots and Ditch Mitch are doing more than an adequate job covering McConnell's idiocies.