BluegrassReport.org

Speaker Richards (D) Still Struggles With Political Reality

Ronnie Ellis' political column today is worth a read. While the story centers around the decision by Speaker of the House Jody Richards (D) to seek re-election to his House seat and another term as Speaker, what really stood out for me is that, after many decades in politics, Richards still struggles with the notion that people lie about whom they support.

While it's somewhat touching that Richards still hopes that people really mean what they say, it's also a little distressing that, after all this time in office at the highest levels of government, he hasn't come to grips with one of the most troubling aspects of modern day politics: people say what they think you want to hear, not how they really feel. In essence, they lie. It's sad. It sucks. But it's true.

Richards, D-Bowling Green, said he “is at peace” with the outcome of the Democratic primary for governor in which he placed fourth in his second try for the state’s top position – although he still seems befuddled with how it happened.

...Richards again expressed surprise at his fourth-place finish in the gubernatorial primary won by former Lt. Gov. and Attorney General Steve Beshear. He said he got calls from around the state from supporters and Democratic activists who told him that everyone they spoke to before the election supported Richards.

“It was strange,” Richards said of the contradiction between those comments and the final vote totals.

The Clear Message Sent By Franklin County Voters

The results from Franklin County last night, where our state capital is located, are quite noteworthy.

Even though he runs the show in the region, Governor Fletcher (R) was able to garner only 53% of the Franklin County Republican primary vote last night. In 2003, 75% of Republicans supported him.

Meanwhile, while former Lt. Governor Steve Beshear (D) received a very strong 51% of Franklin County (Steve Henry finished second with 15%), what is even more noteworthy is the rebuke given to the state's longest-serving Speaker of the House, Jody Richards (D). While nearly defeating Ben Chandler in the 2003 gubernatorial primary, Richards finished an unimaginable fifth in the voting with just 10% of the county's vote. Gatewood Galbraith (D) finished fourth with 11%.

Blue Grass Poll

The Courier-Journal has just released its numbers from its Blue Grass Poll taken May 10 through May 15. It shows the gubernatorial primary races as follows:

Beshear 27%
Lunsford 21%
Henry 13%
Richards 7%
Galbraith 4%
Hensley 1%

Fletcher 41%
Northup 26%
Harper 10%

My quick thoughts: 1) The poll began a week ago, which means it would not have taken full account of strong surges of late by Beshear and Northup; 2) Fletcher has to be terrified that he's only at 41% just a week from the election as the INCUMBENT, knowing that late undecideds rarely break for an incumbent, not to mention what would happen to him in a runoff; 3) how many of Harper voters will cast a vote for the guy who can't win instead of Northup who has a shot?

Survey USA To Show Beshear Surge?

The good folks over at Ditch Mitch appear to have the early data from today's Survey USA poll, indicating that Steve Beshear (D) has greatly benefited from Jonathan Miller's (D) withdrawal and endorsement:

(previous results in parentheses):

• Beshear/Mongiardo -- 32% (23%)
• Lunsford/Stumbo -- 23% (29%)
• Henry/True -- 18% (18%)
• Richards/Brown -- 12% (9%)
• Galbraith/Wireman --6% (5%)
• Undecided -- 9% (7%)

Assuming these numbers are accurate, the other interesting storyline is that despite dumping million of dollars into this race, Bruce Lunsford (D) isn't getting any more traction this year than in 2003 when he peaked at about 25% and then dropped out.

Not only is Lunsford no sure thing for finishing second, but if Beshear continues to gather steam there's an outside chance he'll pierce 40%. Will Lunsford try to go back on his promise and launch attack ads against Beshear in the final week?

Update: Also according to the Ditch Mitch post, Governor Fletcher (R) has lost some ground but continues to lead Anne Northup (R) by ten points.

Update #2 (12:41 pm): Click here for the actual survey results.

Democrats Focus Their Fire On Beshear (Gerth/Steitzer, Courier-Journal)

I missed last night's KET Democratic gubernatorial debate but, according to the Courier-Journal's story, it sounds like it was an eventful evening:

Democrats Focus Their Fire On Beshear
Gambling plan, loan ties assailed
By Joseph Gerth and Stephenie Steitzer, The Courier-Journal

LEXINGTON, Ky. — Democratic candidates for governor took aim yesterday at former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear, criticizing their fellow candidate's reliance on expanded gambling to pay for the state's needs and his role in working for high-interest lenders.

They said the biggest problem with gambling is that it would take several years before the state could benefit from it — and that's if the General Assembly passes legislation next year to allow casino gambling.

"It's just like Wallace Wilkinson," said former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry, invoking the name of Beshear's late political nemesis, who won election in 1987 pushing a state lottery.

"He's trying to perpetrate something that is not going to happen for at least three years."

House Speaker Jody Richards said Beshear didn't understand how difficult it would be to pass such a constitutional amendment as long as David Williams is president of the state Senate.

"Mr. Beshear doesn't seem to realize there is a General Assembly out there," Richards said. After listening to Henry, Richards and Bruce Lunsford take him to task, Beshear said, "I love how all these people plan for failure."

[...]

Richards and Henry also criticized Beshear for his work as a lawyer and lobbyist for the Kentucky Deferred Deposit Association in the late 1990s. The group represents payday lenders that charge high interest rates.

Beshear contended that he actually helped the state pass restrictions on the industry, limiting interest rates and the number of times the businesses could "roll over," or reissue, the loans.

In fact, he fought against more strict rules.

"Mr. Beshear, I know you're a great lawyer, but I don't think that is going to sit with the voters. The bottom line is you represented the industry," Henry said, calling Beshear's explanation "a little far-fetched."

Richards then jumped in, criticizing a bill Beshear supported in 1998, saying it allows excessive interest and needs to be more restrictive.

"Mr. Speaker, as I remember, the House and Senate overwhelmingly passed it and you voted for it," Beshear shot back.

[...]

When a panelist asked the candidates about the practice of sitting governors using a state plane to attend campaign events, all said they would not do so if elected.

A panelist followed up by pointing out that Beshear was reported to have used a state plane more than 200 times while he was lieutenant governor under then-Gov. Martha Layne Collins.

Before the debate ended, the Lunsford campaign seized upon the issue, releasing a statement that showed reports of Beshear's use of the state plane, many of which occurred while he was running for governor when he was lieutenant governor.

Beshear said after the debate that he used the plane to appear in his official capacity at civic events, festivals and parades, not to attend fundraisers.

Asked whether those events blur the line between official and campaign use, Beshear said the General Assembly should develop a clear set of guidelines "so that it will be clear not only to the governor and the lieutenant governor, but also the people in the state as to exactly when you can use the state aircraft and when you should not."

I'm looking forward to the Survey USA results that will be released today. I've heard that the Blue Grass Poll is expected to be released tomorrow as well.

Expanded-Gaming Idiocy

Lots of media stories this morning on how a number of Democratic gubernatorial candidates took Steve Beshear (D) to task at yesterday's AARP forum because of his one-size-fits-all answer response to how to fix what ills Kentucky: expanded-gaming.

I agree with the criticism, and even raised it in January.

As someone who is not particularly opposed to expanded-gaming, I continue to be troubled by Beshear's singular response of "expanded-gaming" to seemingly any question about issues or leadership, even though the best-case scenario for any such revenue wouldn't come until 2009. For many of us looking for real leadership after what we've dealt with over the past three years, this hardly satisfies our hunger. It's also the reason that I'm lukewarm on Beshear.

However, as disappointed as I am with the lack of breadth of Beshear's vision, I'm even more disappointed with the disingenuous and flip-flopping comments on expanded-gaming by both Jody Richards (D) and Bruce Lunsford (D).

During the 2003 campaign, Lunsford was just as aggressive on expanded-gaming as Beshear is now. Funny how he's changed his tune on this issue -- among so many others -- since his failed 2003 run. Back then, Lunsford lectured us as follows:

Owensboro Messenger-Inquirer (Apr 23, 2003):

If Bruce Lunsford is elected governor in November, he says he will push hard to get a constitutional amendment allowing six to eight land-based casinos in Kentucky on the ballot in 2004.

"We're almost being foolish to continue to allow $300 million a year (from Kentuckians) to go to out-of-state casinos in Indiana and Illinois," the Louisville millionaire businessman said Tuesday during a news conference at the Daviess County Courthouse.

Lunsford said six to eight sites for casinos should be selected by a state gaming board, appointed by the governor and approved by the state Senate. Money from gaming should be restricted to education and helping problem gamblers, he said.

[...]

"Children are leaving this state because of a lack of opportunity," Lunsford said. "This is uppermost in my mind. I want it on the ballot in November 2004 and hopefully we can see construction starting in 2005."

Herald-Leader (Apr 24, 2003):

Giving new political life to the notion of expanding gambling, Democratic candidate for governor Bruce Lunsford is touting casinos as a solution to Kentucky's budget problems.

Lunsford's endorsement of a constitutional amendment to allow for six to eight land-based casinos across Kentucky marks the first time a large-scale expansion of gambling has emerged as a statewide campaign issue in 16 years.

...Lunsford's gambit could air the issue of expanding gambling more fully than it has been previously by forcing his opponents in the Democratic primary to take fully defined positions on it.

...Lunsford called it "a cop-out" to be neutral on an amendment.

"I don't think it has any chance unless the governor plays an active role in pushing it," he said.

...Lunsford said casinos are necessary to increase revenue as well as stop money from flowing across state lines to Indiana casinos.

"We're basically shooting ourselves in the foot by not being able to have a piece of all that revenue," he said.

Kentucky Post (May 1, 2003):

Democrat Bruce Lunsford said gambling is already available in Kentucky through wagering at the horse tracks, off-track betting parlors and bingo games and the state should consider legalizing land-based casinos to bring in millions to fund education and other state needs.

"Let's get it off the table," said Lunsford, a wealthy Louisville businessman who grew up in Kenton County. "They've been discussing it for 10 years. Let's get it on the ballot."

Lunsford is proposing a constitutional amendment, which would have to be approved by voters, that would legalize a limited number of casinos in Kentucky. He said he would want it to require that a major portion of the revenues realized by casinos go to Kentucky's public education system.

On the other hand, Jody Richards (D) has been pathetic on this topic with ever-shifting positions over the years. Yesterday, he acknowledged changing his position and is now opposed to gaming. But Richards' flip-flop is only the latest in truly contradictory positions by him over the years:

AP (Apr 2, 2007):

Richards:

"I support giving the voters of the commonwealth a chance to voice their opinion on expanded gaming in Kentucky. I personally support expanded gaming at Kentucky racetracks and a limited number of other locations."

Herald-Leader (Jan 25, 2007):

Richards told reporters he and Brown favored Kentuckians voting on whether to approve expanded gaming, but wouldn't say whether he'd push for or against it.

Bowling Green Daily News (Dec 17, 2006):

[State Sen. David] Boswell said he isn't sure where some southcentral Kentucky lawmakers stand on the hot-button issue, but he said House Speaker Jody Richards, D-Bowling Green, has been ambiguous.

“He's kind of danced around the issue depending on where is,” Boswell said, citing some of Richards' speaking engagements. “He's never come right out and said he's for it or against it - not here, anyway.”

AP (Mar 21, 2006):

The House Rules Committee has five legislative days to decide what to do with the bill. As of Monday, there was no decision on the measure, which would ask voters to decide whether to amend the constitution to allow up to nine casinos in Kentucky.

Richards, asked Monday about the bill's fate, said, "It sort of depends on what the members want to do."

Asked why it had not been returned to a committee, he said, "Because there are five of us in (House Democratic) leadership." Richards, D-Bowling Green, did not elaborate.

Herald-Leader (Mar 9, 2006):

House Speaker Jody Richards, D-Bowling Green, said he hasn't polled the 100 members to see how a proposed amendment might fare. He acknowledged that Democratic leaders have discussed the issue but wouldn't say whether they've taken a position.

Glasgow Daily Times (Dec 11, 2005):

“Personally, I’m not in favor of expanded gaming.” Richards said, who also questions how unified supporters are. “Until they can get House members together, I’m just going to sort of work with the House members.”

Courier-Journal (Feb 28, 2003):

Richards said he had long opposed any move toward expansion of gambling, "but I am at the point where I believe that the right thing to do is pass a constitutional amendment in the legislature and let the people vote in that issue.''

I'm so incredibly underwhelmed with our remaining choices for Democratic nominee for governor. I can see why Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) projects less than 15% turnout...

The Answer To The Jerry Lundergan Question

A member of organized labor sent me the following concerning my earlier post about which Democratic gubernatorial candidates will replace KDP Chairman Jerry Lundergan should they win the primary, as the rules allow:

On March 29 and 30, 2007, at the Embassy Suites Hotel in Lexington, KY,  Steve Henry, Jody Richards, Jonathan Miller and Steve Beshear spoke to the UMWA 's Coal Miners Political Action Committee. In the presence of approximately 35 UMWA members each Candidate was ask the question if they would replace Jerry Lundergan as KDP Chair. Steve Beshear and Jonathan Miller responded without hesitation that they would replace Jerry Lundergan. Steve Henry defended Lundergan and indicated he would not remove Lundergan. Steve Henry then made the comment from the podium to give him a name that would be better. The Chair of the meeting responded,"Just throw a rock out in the crowd, anybody you hit would be better" this got quite a laugh out of the group and clearly Henry was displeased with the joke. Jody Richards bragged on Lundergan and tried to avoid answering the question but when pressed Richards refused to say he would remove Lundergan. There you have it.

Sadly, Jody is not giving undecided Democrats many reasons to support him.

The Question That Needs To Be Asked

One question that I would encourage a reporter to ask the remaining Democratic gubernatorial candidates is this:

Democratic Party rules allow its gubernatorial nominee to select the party chairman of his choosing. If you win the nomination, will you ask Jerry Lundergan to remain as chairman or will you bring in new leadership for the KDP for the general election?

While some supporters of Jonathan Miller (D) are trying to determine whether to back Steve Beshear (D) or Jody Richards (D), this question might be the deciding factor for many Democrats who are looking for good government and honest, ethical leadership running the Kentucky Democratic Party.

We all know that Bruce Lunsford (D) and Steve Henry (D) have embraced the extension of Lundergan's failed leadership if they win. We also know that Beshear is no fan of the current regime. But I've not seen where Richards has made clear his intention and how he answers this question may very well determine how much of Miller's support he can hope to receive.

For many, including myself, this question is as important as any issue a candidate is asked to give. It's time all Democratic candidates are put on-the-record to tell us whether the disastrous and embarrassing reign of Jerry Lundergan will come to an end if they are nominated.

Richards-Brown

I thought the Richards-Brown television ad they just released was very well-done. It reminded me of the 2003 spot that Richards and then running mate Tony Miller did that made a refreshing splash at the same time that Bruce Lunsford (D) was dropping millions on Ben Chandler's (D) head, forcing him to respond in kind and eventually causing Lunsford to pick-up his pail and shovel and whimper away. Murphy-Putnam Media is again doing Richards' ads.

Unfortunately for Jody, that same sort of dynamic to exploit doesn't exist in this wide-open field and one wonders how much of an impact it will have, other than mobilize his base and try to exploit Democrats uneasy with expanded gaming, even though they aren't opposed to it.

Nevertheless, I thought they did a good job.

Edwin Edwards (D) v. David Duke (R), Redux?

As I'm sure you know, the latest Survey USA poll was released yesterday.

I wanted to vomit.

Not because the numbers for candidates I am rooting for were not as good as other recent surveys I've seen (though certainly that's part of it). Mainly I wanted to vomit out of a profound sadness that Kentucky primary voters are inclined to nominate (runoff notwithstanding) the two biggest pariahs to face each other in the fall (Ernie Fletcher and Bruce Lunsford), setting up a fall campaign that would be tantamount to the 1991 Louisiana Governor's race between the crook, Edwin Edwards (D), and the racist, David Duke (R).

That year, Louisiana voters were faced with such an unimaginable choice between two evils that bumper stickers on cars contained slogans such as "Vote for the Crook. It's Important," and "Vote for the Lizard, not the Wizard." It's amazing to me that the two candidates solidly opposed by the thoughtful core of each political party could possibly be leading with three weeks to go, albeit with percentages of just 29% and 46%, hardly indicators of strong support.

Though, I can't fathom being faced with such a situation this fall because 1) there's no chance that I would consider a vote for Bruce Lunsford in the fall regardless of who the Republican nominate (my party loyalty stops with him), and 2) there's no chance that I could ever cast a vote for someone so incompetent and dishonest as Fletcher, a man who is effectively Judas in Jesus clothing.

(Note: While I feel almost that way about Steve Henry (D), at least I believe, based on his demonstrated history, that Henry is a Democrat. A dishonest, pathological, unethical, manipulative, cheating, thieving Democrat...but a Democrat. Hence, I would vote for Henry over Fletcher...at least. Lunsford isn't a Democrat, he's a political opportunist. His political contributions, his support of Fletcher and other Kentucky Republicans, his long-time friendship with McConnell, his clear anti-union practices over the years, give us every reason to doubt that man has any core political beliefs (just like Fletcher), yet alone Democratic ones.)

So, if Survey USA is accurate, this will likely be the first election in my lifetime where the best choice is to exercise my right not to cast a vote for governor. There are plenty of excellent candidates running down-ballot that I am eager to support, but I will certainly skip the first race if I must choose between two pariahs. There is no "lesser" between the two that I've yet to discern.

So, yes, I was disappointed with Survey USA. While I have some serious qualms with some of its findings (like an unbelievably low 7% undecided among Democrats), I'm saddened more than anything.

As far as candidates go, they should always trust their own pollsters. You don't spend tens of thousands of dollars to do your own research and then throw it away when an independent poll contradicts it. If that was the case, John Yarmuth (D) would have closed-down his shop after the Bluegrass Poll showed him trailing Anne Northup (R) by six points with barely a week to go. Independent polls are very useful in that they help you see trends. They are powerful when they confirm what your poll tells you. But when they vastly depart from your own poll, you don't change course. You keep fighting. You stick to your campaign plan. And then you hope that your next poll doesn't mimic the independent poll. But there are still three weeks to go and we've not even reached Derby yet.

But if Survey USA is to believed, we ought to brush-up on our Edwards v. Duke history and see how Louisianans dealt with it. Ultimately, Edwards won that election but, not unexpectedly, was later convicted on 17 federal criminal counts including racketeering and extortion and is in federal prison until 2011. Meanwhile, David Duke, who also found himself in legal hot water, has most recently been seen in Tehran at a conference held by Iranian President Ahmadinejad questioning the Holocaust, where he told the delegation that gas chambers were not used to kill six million Jews. Louisiana voters were right on the money about these two characters.

God save the Commonwealth...

$3 Million? Give Me A Break

Joe Gerth has an item about the Richards-Brown campaign in today's Courier-Journal:

A couple of weeks ago Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rep. Jody Richards and his chief fundraiser, Larry Townsend, parted company after Townsend donated $1,000 to one of Richards' foes, Bruce Lunsford.

But that was only after Richards had expressed dissatisfaction with Townsend for not coming through with what he had promised.

Townsend had told Richards he would bring in $3 million for his campaign, according to campaign spokeswoman Jennifer Brislin.

He raised substantially less.

While I am sympathetic to Richards' campaign because of Townsend's turncoat behavior, I think it's beyond preposterous that they really believed that Townsend could deliver $3 million.

Jody is a good and decent man but he really lacks a clue when it comes to running state political campaigns. In 2003, he was barely able to raise $750,000 (he added another $70,000 or so in personal contributions) because he couldn't get his arms around fundraising, yet Richards somehow convinced himself that a non-candidate is going to come in and raise $3 million in a seven-way Democratic primary? Consider that Ben Chandler (D) raised $3.08 million in the 2003 primary under the most optimal of circumstances.

Jody has every right to be upset about Townsend's betrayal, but complaining he failed to raise $3 million is lunacy. That noise you hear is a lot of political insiders laughing at Richards for believing such a thing and is a apt microcosm of Richards' problem as a candidate. He's not tethered to the ground when it comes to reasonable expectations.

Steve Henry (D) Loans His Campaign $1 Million

Updates on fundraising figures from Democratic gubernatorial candidates (these are unofficial numbers):

• Steve Henry (D) has reported that he loaned his campaign $1 million on top of the $478,000 he raised from contributors. He's already spent about $1 million on his media buy leaving $500,000 on hand;
        
• Jody Richards (D) reported raising $515,000 and has $332,000 on hand and has not bought media yet;
               
• Bruce Lunsford (D) loaned his campaign $3.5 million on top of $722,000 from his many Republican interests and has already spent about $4 million;
                          
• Jonathan Miller (D) reported $1.01 million raised and has $187,000 on hand after making additional media buys;
                 
• Steve Beshear (D) reported $1.13 million raised and a cash balance of $553,000, but according I'm told $564,000 has just been spent/reserved for the final four weeks of television which took place after the reporting period.

I'll offer an analysis a little later (the only real surprise was Henry's million dollar personal contribution), but it is noteworthy how much more money was raised by Democratic candidates than Republican candidates (not including loans) since January 1 -- approximately $3.5 million compared to about $2.5 million. With an incumbent Republican governor, you wouldn't expect such a disparity.

Republican Lieutenant Governor Debate And The "What If Something Happened" Question

Did anyone watch the Republican lieutenant governor candidates debate on KET last night? I watched the first 30 minutes and it couldn't have been clearer to me that Jeff Hoover (R) is the only one of the three that I would have any faith in being one heartbeat away. While I don't agree often with Hoover on political philosophy, the man knows the issues, has experience and clearly understands state government. He demonstrated that last night.

There was a question that reporter Ronnie Ellis asked Dick Wilson (R) (Billy Harper's (R) running mate), that really made me pause and think for a moment. Apparently, Billy Harper has vowed not to give-up drag racing even if becomes governor and Ellis asked Wilson how he could convince voters that should something happen to a Governor Harper, that he would be capable of taking over the reigns and stepping in as governor since Wilson doesn't have a lick of experience.

Wilson's answer was worthless. He argued that drag racing was safe and I don't recall an answer to Ellis' question. But that made me think about the lieutenant governor role, especially given the recent serious accident of New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, or the sudden death of a sitting governor like Indiana's Frank O'Bannon, or the sudden resignation of New Jersey Governor Jim McGreevy. Who could step in as lieutenant governor and competently take over? Who would you trust, not only to be governor, but who could handle a Hurricane Katrina-like disaster?

On the Republican side, Hoover is the only one I'd have any confidence in. Wilson seems like a nice man who should not be on a major ticket for high office. And Robbie Rudolph is one of the scariest, smarmiest politicians around. He exudes sleaze, dishonesty and pettiness. Everything we've read about him shows his obsession with retaliating against political enemies and not about doing the people's business. He honestly frightens me as possible elected official and someone I would have little confidence in properly, ethically, handling state government.

Thankfully, four of the five major Democratic lieutenant governor candidates are as rock-solid as Hoover as far as having the confidence of stepping in and running the show in an emergency. Regardless of which candidate you support, I think we'd all agree that Irv Maze, Greg Stumbo, Daniel Mongiardo, and John Y. Brown, III are all capable of assuming the office on a moment's notice.

But does anyone feel that way about Renee True? 

Sadly, I think there have too many recent instances where the number two is forced into action and must make crucial decisions immediately. While the gubernatorial candidates will be assessed by the voters, is anyone thinking about whether the LG could handle the job if disaster strikes?

Which lieutenant governor would you trust to deal with a repeat of the The Great Flood of 1937 when 60% of Louisville was under water and without power for weeks? And what if, God-forbid, terrorists managed to sneak a dirty bomb into the Kentucky Derby or among the 800,000 that attend Thunder over Louisville?

Serious, I think we need to think carefully about such scenarios when electing our slates...

The Big Mo' Grabs Miller-Maze -- New Poll Shows Them Tied For 2nd Place

This morning, the Miller-Maze campaign released polling conducted by The Mellman Group of likely Democratic primary voters over four days ending yesterday, and it shows them moving into a second-place tie (click here for poll memo):

Henry 22%
Miller 15%
Lunsford 15%
Beshear 12%
Richards 8%
Galbraith 2%
Hensley 1%
Undecided 26%

The poll also showed that Miller has the lowest unfavorable rating of the group and best fav/unfav ratio, with 39% giving him favorable marks versus just 12% viewing him unfavorably, a ratio of 3.25 (39/12):

Miller (39% favorable -- 12% unfavorable, ratio 3.25)
Henry (53% favorable -- 18% unfavorable, ratio 2.94)
Beshear (44% favorable -- 18% unfavorable, ratio 2.44)
Richards (39% favorable -- 20% unfavorable, ratio 1.95)
Lunsford (41% favorable -- 21% unfavorable, ratio 1.95)

This poll seems to confirm a steady swelling of support for Miller-Maze over the past few weeks. At the time that Miller-Maze went up with its first television ad, they stood at 8% in the Survey USA poll. A little more than a week ago, there were unconfirmed reports that they had climbed to 12%, moving into a tie with Richards. Now it shows they have climbed further to 15%, leap-frogging both Richards and Beshear.

Also, the campaign confirmed that it will report more than $1 million in contributions in its first official campaign finance report to be filed with the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance (KREF) this week. The news of this polling should provide a significant boost to its already strong fundraising performance to date.

While this poll shows that this race is still very fluid and lots can happen with 29 days to go, it's unmistakable that Miller-Maze is the one team right now with significant momentum and there's nothing more important in the final weeks than having wind pushing your sails.

Finally, the horse race numbers were actually the combined numbers from two split samples, as half of the respondents were asked to select among slates and the other half were just asked by gubernatorial candidate. There was not much difference between the two but Miller, Beshear and Richards benefited slightly when their running mates were mentioned:

(with running mate mentioned)
Henry-True 22%
Miller-Maze 15%
Lunsford-Stumbo 15%
Beshear-Mongiardo 13%
Richards-Brown 9%
Galbraith-Wireman 1%
Hensley-Robbins 1%
Undecided 24%

(without running mate mentioned)
Henry 22%
Lunsford 15%
Miller 14%
Beshear 11%
Richards 8%
Galbraith 3%
Hensley 0%
Undecided 27%

Three weeks ago, I assessed the race as objectively as I could, despite my well-known preference for Miller-Maze. Here's what I wrote then about Miller:

Jonathan Miller (D): Jonathan has managed to raise an impressive amount of money despite his low name ID and his consistent 8% standing in the polls and today he launches his media campaign which will now require clear movement in the polls within 2-3 weeks. If he doesn't climb a half-dozen points in the next three weeks and leapfrog at least one opponent (probably Richards), he may never. But polling clearly demonstrates that he's very well-liked among voters who know him and now he's going to have to deliver in communicating his message to Democratic voters. Given that the airwaves are not cluttered right now, I suspect he'll have little trouble achieving an initial bump. The challenge for Miller will be to capitalize on an initial bump into continued strong fundraising and then make a second jump into the runoff. To me, that's the difference between Miller and Beshear. Beshear needs to make one jump. Miller needs two. But Miller is on the air in Week 7 and he's done everything required to be in a position to accomplish that goal. Only short-sighted people would write him off today.

I think Miller has made the first of two needed jumps. Another good piece of news from this poll for Miller is that he's still the least-known of the five major candidates, thus providing them with the best growth potential in the final month. The key will be to translate these encouraging results with an even stronger infusion of fundraising to become better known and garner one of the two spots in the June runoff.

My feeling is that this is a four-way race (Henry, Lunsford, Beshear and Miller), with Richards on the outside looking in, and unless he reports having raised $600k or $700k, I think he's toast because he won't be able to communicate his message sufficiently to leapfrog candidates who are on tv.

This should be an exciting finish...

UPDATE (11:42 AM): The attached poll memo mentions one additional significant item: among the 27% of the respondents who knew all five major candidates, the results were:

Henry 24%
Miller 20%
Lunsford 16%
Beshear 15%
Richards 9%

The key for Miller is fundraising, fundraising, fundraising to ramp-yup his media buy to reach more voters...

Chatter

With all the usual caveats, I wanted to pass along a couple of e-mails that readers sent over the weekend. I can't vouch for the accuracy of either, but I offer them for discussion and any context/background you can provide:

Mark,

Here is a tip for you to follow up on if you can.  Two of the administrators of Fletcher's Facebook entry (Re-elect Ernie Fletcher '07) are non-merit employees working in his communications office -- Dan Bayens and Grant Friedman.  I have noticed several entries that have been posted by these two between the hours of 8:00 am and 4:30 pm Mondays-Fridays.  If posted from their state computers, or even from the Governor's Office on different computers, that is definitely a violation of Executive Branch ethics rules.

                     

Mark - I'm a native Kentuckian living in DC and a huge fan of your site. You keep me plugged into the political scene there.

I saw your post about Mitch this morning and wanted to pass along some confidential info from a good friend who works for an "interest group" that plays both sides of the political fence. They completed some polling in KY a few days ago which showed McConnell potentially vulnerable in 2008, and may explain his torrid fundraising pace. He said Mitch's hard re-elect was just 37% but they did not test specific opponents. But as you wrote, can Dems offer a real opponent? I doubt it.

Mainly the poll tested the governor's race. It showed your boy Miller with a bump but the numbers were not out of whack with the recent polling you've blogged about. They had it Henry 21%, Lunsford 18%, Beshear 16%, Richards/Miller 12%. Not sure about Gatewood or undecideds. 

On the R side, showed Harper stronger than other polls: Fletcher 38%, Northup 32%, Harper 20%. Said Fletcher loses to both Northup and Harper in a runoff so he must crack 40% in May. Is Harper in the race for good? He could be a real spoiler.

Lunsford Poised To Attack Beshear?

One of the loudest rumors out there is that allies of Bruce Lunsford (D) intend to launch a 527 effort against Steve Beshear (D) in the coming weeks. There's no way to know for sure whether it's true but Ronnie Ellis' story of the past hour sure hints at what might lie ahead. We'll found out soon enough whether there's any fire accompanying the smoke:

Bruce Lunsford wants to crack down on the high fees and interest rates charged by payday lenders – and if the millionaire businessman from Louisville is elected governor, he says, he will.

...Lunsford issued a position paper Wednesday and conducted a teleconference with reporters on his four-point plan “to protect homeowners and consumers and crack down on deceptive predatory lending practices.”

...One of Lunsford’s opponents, Beshear, lobbied on behalf of the payday loan industry during one legislative session in 1998, working for the Kentucky Deferred Deposit Association which represents payday lenders. But Lunsford deflected reporters’ questions wondering if his interest in the issue might be tied to Beshear or if internal Lunsford polling indicated Beshear might be a primary threat.

...Pressed about Beshear, he responded: “He’s got to answer about what he does and I’ve got to answer for what I do.”

First of all, I find it amusing that a predator like Lunsford wants to crack down on fellow predators.

Nevertheless, I think an attack on Beshear's lobbying efforts on behalf of the payday loan industry could be very problematic for him. Remember how quickly U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R) scrambled last fall when he was found to be carrying their water? If an attack on Beshear with serious money is real, it could cause some serious damage to him among Democratic primary voters.

Also, given how Lunsford's good buddy, Larry Townsend, unimaginably torpedoed Speaker Jody Richards' (D) campaign with his recent treasonous act, after committing himself to be Richards' finance chairman, and now this, one has to wonder whether Lunsford is instructing his allies to go after his opponents.

When you consider the predicament that Steve Henry (D) is in with his problems, it's not too bad to be Jonathan Miller (D) right now, who continues to demonstrate strong fundraising, some grassroots excitement, and has just launched his second television ad -- which happens to be two more than any of his opponents, except for Lunsford, the multi-millionaire pariah trying to buy this election...

Richards Shakes Up Campaign Staff -- Campaign manager, finance chairman asked to leave (Ellis, CNHI)

Ronnie Ellis has just posted this bit of significant campaign news:

Richards Shakes Up Campaign Staff
Campaign manager, finance chairman asked to leave
By Ronnie Ellis, CNHI News Service

Both the campaign manager and finance chairman for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jody Richards have left the House Speaker’s campaign.

Richards’ press spokesperson, Jennifer Brislin, said Monday afternoon that Richards’ campaign manager Travis Lowe was asked to depart last week. She said Richards wanted to change direction of his campaign, emphasizing more of a field operation.

Neither Lowe nor Richards returned messages left on cell phones seeking comment.

And Larry Townsend, Richards’ finance chairman, has also left the campaign after attending a fund raising event for one of Richards’ opponents, Bruce Lunsford, who served with Townsend in the administration of Gov. John Y. Brown, the father of Richards’ running mate John Y. Brown III.

Survey USA

Mark Hebert reports that Survey USA will be releasing the second round of numbers in the governor's race this afternoon. Presumably, the poll was taken over the weekend. While there's no reason to believe we'll see any significant movements in the numbers, I am looking forward to the numbers on three candidates: Governor Fletcher (R), Bruce Lunsford (D), and Steve Henry (D).

Both Fletcher and Lunsford have gone on the air with significant buys, so one would expect to see upward movement from both of them since their ads were positive, they weren't competing with any other opponents on the air, and each purchased hefty media buys. The lack of strong movement for either of these two should signal concerns.

Also, Henry has been the subject of a number of tough stories in the Louisville and Lexington media markets concerning his campaign finance controversy, so I'll be looking for any erosion in his support in those areas in particular.

Overall, I don't expect much change in the numbers or the status of the horserace, but there will be a few items that should prove instructive with seven weeks to go.

Recall that the previous Survey USA taken March 3-5 showed:

Democrats
Henry 26%
Beshear 15%
Richards 13%
Miller 8%
Lunsford 7%
Galbraith 6%
Hensley 2%

Republicans
Fletcher 33%
Northup 31%
Harper 13%

Hebert Follows-Up On Henry's August 2005 Statement

Mark Hebert noted my earlier finding on Steve Henry (D) and then offered this take:

Henry says it was a legal campaign committee set up to explore whether he should run for U.S. Senate. But as Nickolas (bluegrassreport.org) discovered, Henry's words in 2005 don't appear to match his actions and he may have some serious explaining to do to the Registry. If the Registry concludes that Henry willfully violated Kentucky's campaign finance laws, the likely result wouldn't be a civil penalty and slap on the wrist. It would likely be a referral to a prosecutor for potential criminal action.

Does anyone have any hope that the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance (KREF) will either act against -- or clear -- Henry before Election Day?  Because if they don't act until the summer, and Henry manages to fool the voters on May 22, you can kiss goodbye any hope of taking back the Governor's Mansion, regardless of who the Republicans nominate. If Henry had integrity and cared about the Democratic Party, he'd demand that this matter be expedited, heard and decided before the primary. Yeah, "if".

By the way, I can't count how many Democrats have e-mailed me to say that if either Henry or Bruce Lunsford were to win the nomination -- and if Anne Northup (R) won the GOP nomination -- they'd vote Republican for the first time. Conversely, a good number of Republican readers and friends have said that if Governor Fletcher (R) were to win the nomination -- and if Democrats were to nominate either Jonathan Miller, Jody Richards or Steve Beshear -- they'd cross party lines as well in November.

Makes we wonder whether there's the makings of a bi-partisan idea there.

While there's no way I'd consider voting for a Republican in the fall, I might be willing to pledge that I wouldn't vote for either Henry or Lunsford. Maybe I'd just write-in Ben Chandler.

In politics, actions have consequences, and the actions we've seen from Henry and Lunsford over the past few years, in my opinion, disqualify them both from consideration as the Democratic nominee for governor.

Thoughts?

Bruce Lunsford Making-Out With More Republicans As More Democratic Supporters Walk Away

Once again, Bruce Lunsford (D) believes that the road to the Democratic gubernatorial nomination runs through Republicans who can't vote for him on May 22. This time, Lunsford is caught making out with Republican John Schnatter.

Recall that on Monday night, Lunsford held a fundraiser at a prominent Northern Kentucky Republican couple's home.

While I don't have any problems with Democrats taking money from Republicans in the primary, it's impossible not to conclude that Lunsford doesn't have a Democratic base of support to pull from and must rely on Republicans to prop-up his candidacy. It also feeds into the widely-shared sentiment that Lunsford is simply not a Democrat, given his extensive history of tens of thousands of dollars in personal contributions to Republican candidates and organizations over the years, his endorsement of Fletcher-Pence in 2003, and now his reliance on Republicans to help his Democratic primary campaign.

Lunsford has clearly miscalculated when he entered this race, believing that teaming-up with Attorney General Greg Stumbo (D) would help rehabilitate his Democratic bona fides. It hasn't. And last week's endorsement by the Teamsters Local 89 of the Richards-Brown slate rather than Lunsford-Stumbo makes that miscalculation so clear.

I can't think of a stronger historical relationship between a labor union and a political leader than the one between Stumbo and the Teamsters. Not only has Greg been a rock-solid supporter of organized labor but he even hired Danny Ross as his labor liaison once elected attorney general. Ross, as you recall, was a target in a criminal investigation led by then Attorney General Ben Chandler (D) which focused on alleged campaign finance improprieties related to Patton’s 1995 gubernatorial race. The matter eventually concluded after Patton pardoned Ross and three others in 2003.

But that relationship -- and others within organized labor -- has not transferred to Lunsford-Stumbo as we saw with last Thursday's Teamsters' endorsement:

Teamsters 89 endorses Richards-Brown

Democratic candidates Jody Richards and John Y. Brown III will support Kentucky’s working families and lead the Commonwealth down the path of strong schools, economic prosperity, an improved health care system and smart energy policies, according to officials for Teamsters Local 89, in endorsing the team for governor and lieutenant governor.

Zuckerman made the announcement today at the Teamsters Hall in Louisville.

“Jody has always stood up for Kentucky families,” said Fred Zuckerman, Teamsters 89 president.  “Today we’re proud to stand beside him and return that support and loyalty.”

Zuckerman noted that Richards was a constant supporter for workers during last year’s assault on working families, when the governor attempted to repeal prevailing wage legislation and force Kentucky into becoming a right-to-work state.  And he pointed out that Richards sponsored legislation in this legislative session that would raise the state minimum wage; allow collective bargaining for public employees; and prohibit companies from paying men and woman unequal salaries when they perform comparable jobs.

While the Teamsters endorsed Richards in the 2003 Democratic primary (over Chandler and Lunsford), few expected they would walk away from Stumbo. Though, my labor friends would say it was Stumbo would walked away from them. They never changed.

But this is a dramatic example of the Lunsford-Stumbo miscalculation and, by all accounts, labor isn't done with these guys...

Polls, Polls, Polls

I think polls in crowded primary races before anyone goes on the air to articulate their message are simply a measurement of name ID and are of marginal importance as a predictive tool, particularly when there are more voters in the undecided column than for the first-place candidate.

What we've been seeing in the Democratic presidential race confirms that with the recent ascension of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). As he has become better known, his numbers have followed. The latest USA Today/Gallup poll showed that former U.S. Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) has gone from 9% to 14% in just three weeks, following the widely-publicized disclosure last week that his wife, Elizabeth, has experienced a recurrence of her cancer.

Here in Kentucky, there have been three polls in the Democratic race for governor that have been released: two candidates' own internal polls (Steve Henry released his yesterday, Steve Beshear released his in February) and one independent Survey USA poll.

While all three polls tend to mirror name ID at this stage, I think there are a few minor trends worth noting.

First, I've noticed over the years that internal polls have a tendency to exaggerate that candidate's own support by about two points when compared to other polls taken around the same time. Not sure why that happens, and I don't believe it's an intentional thing, but my experience in managing campaigns tends to show that pattern -- particularly early in races when many candidates are not well-known. But, I've never met a pollster who ever suggested manipulating polling data. It just doesn't happen among the reputable ones. Nevertheless, I usually discount two points off internals as insurance. (Also note that Northup's internal had her tied with Fletcher but Survey USA showed her down two).

As such, let's examine the three polls that have been released:

Poll	Date	Henry	Beshear	Richards	Miller	Lunsford	Other	Undec
Henry (internal)	Mar/19-22	25%	14%	13%	8%	7%	5%	28%
Survey USA	Mar/3-5	26%	15%	13%	8%	7%	8%	24%
Beshear (internal)	Feb/20-22	21%	21%	16%	8%	8%	7%	19%

Let's assume all the data is accurate, except we subtract two points from the candidate in their specific internal poll and add it to the undecided column. Here's how the new table would look:

Poll	Date	Henry	Beshear	Richards	Miller	Lunsford	Other	Undec
Henry (internal)	Mar/19-22	23%	14%	13%	8%