BluegrassReport.org

Lt. Col. Andrew Horne Reporting For Duty

While I realize John Y Brown III posted about this already this morning, I wanted to jump in and say how glad I am that we have a formal top-tier candidate -- Lt. Col. Andrew Horne (D) -- to take on President Bush's waterboy and the leader of the party that got us in the unimaginable debacle of the Iraq War -- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R).

While there is still another month or so before the filing deadline, I believe this is Horne's primary race to lose. I don't say that with any contempt for the other possible candidates who are considering a run, like Attorney General Stumbo (D) or even businessman Greg Fischer (D) -- but I believe Lt. Col. Horne matches-up well with McConnell, particularly on the most important issue of the day -- the war. While McConnell can lecture us about his bird's eye view of the situation in Iraq and then puts soldiers in his campaign ads, Horne is a real soldier who actually led Marine combat forces during this very war. And with one race under his belt (the 2006 Third Congressional District congressional primary), he will no doubt be a stronger, smarter, savvier opponent, as is usually the case with talented candidates the second time around.

Most here know that I supported current U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) last year against Horne. I supported John because I knew he would become the very rockstar congressman he now is. But once the primary was over, there were few stronger advocates for him than Andrew Horne, who campaigned his heart out to help John win the general election. My opposition to Horne was nothing more than my passionate support of Yarmuth. It was only after that November election that I got a chance to know Andrew on a personal level. He's a rock-solid person, has a remarkable story to tell -- and has been doing so this past year on behalf of VoteVets.org -- and Kentucky would be well-served with Lt. Col. Horne reporting for duty in the United States Senate on its behalf.

So, I'm very happy Lt. Col. Horne has volunteered to serve us once again and I look forward to a spirited primary campaign and a general election ass-kicking of the highest order of the man who has offered us these incomprehensible bits of wisdom:

• “I’ve never met a finer man than our governor, Ernie Fletcher,” said McConnell. “I’m proud of Ernie Fletcher. I’m proud of Glenna Fletcher. And I’m proud of the image they present for our state.” (link)

• Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell of Kentucky called Bush "one of the great presidents in the history of the United States." (link)

• Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said the war in Iraq has been an "extremely successful undertaking." (link)

• Senator Mitch McConnell called Rumsfeld “a spectacular secretary of defense, one of the best in American history." (link)

Don't you think Kentucky deserves someone with better judgment to serve them in the U.S. Senate?

Me too.

http://andrewhorne.org/

Yarmuth to Hold Press Conference for High School Journalists

Admittedly, I'm very biased with this post since I'm such a big fan of U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D), but I think this is such a terrific idea (likely the product of his own media background):

Yarmuth to Hold Press Conference for High School Journalists
Media Welcome to Observe, Participation for Students Only

(Louisville, KY) On Tuesday, November 27, Congressman John Yarmuth (KY-3) will hold a press conference for high school journalists interested in interviewing him for their school publications.

More than 40 Jefferson County students are expected to attend, including reporters, photographers, and television and radio crew.

Students are encouraged to ask about any subject related to the Congressman, including but not limited to education, healthcare, Iraq, energy, the environment, and his experiences as Louisville’s Congressman.

Although the questioning will be limited to students, the professional media is welcome to attend.

WHAT:   Press Conference for Student Journalists
WHO:    Congressman John Yarmuth (KY-3)
More than 40 student journalists from Jefferson County schools
WHEN:   Tuesday, November 27th, 5:00 PM
WHERE:  Romano Mazzoli Federal Building
600 Martin Luther King, Jr. Place
On the front steps or Suite 216, depending on weather

I'm sure John isn't the first to reach-out to high school students in this fashion, but it's a neat idea and I hope more of our elected officials -- of all political stripes -- provide innovative ways for high school students to engage in the political process.

Anyway, just thought this was worth sharing.

Kentucky's Clear Blue Shift

One of the recent signs that have made more predict that U.S. Sen. McConnell (R) is in for a rougher re-election fight than expected is the fact that President Bush's (R) job approval numbers in Kentucky have plummeted to a disastrously low 35% approve and 65% disapprove.

Indeed, those numbers do suggest that the man who has proudly defended and advanced the Bush agenda ought to be very concerned. But a closer look at those numbers tell an even more problematic story for McConnell.

You see, while Bush is becoming less popular in Kentucky, he's also getting less popular in the other 49 states, so simply using Bush's plunging numbers in Kentucky only tell part of the story. But where things are much more instructive is to see where Bush has dropped more than elsewhere over the past few years.

When you do that, you'll notice that in only one state (New Mexico) has Bush's job performance tumbled more than it has in Kentucky -- among those states which SurveyUSA has been testing monthly since May 2005 -- when you compare the differences in President Bush's net rating (approval minus disapproval):

State	Nov 2007	May 2005	Diff
New Mexico	-35 (32/67)	-4 (46/50)	-31
Kentucky	-27 (35/62)	+2 (49/47)	-29
California	-44 (26/70)	-15 (39/54)	-29
New York	-54 (22/76)	-25 (35/60)	-29
Minnesota	-30 (34/64)	-2 (47/49)	-28
Massachusetts	-54 (22/76)	-26 (35/61)	-28
Virginia	-32 (33/65)	-6 (44/50)	-26
Kansas	-21 (38/59)	+4 (49/45)	-25
Washington	-35 (31/66)	-10 (42/52)	-25
Oregon	-36 (31/67)	-13 (42/55)	-23
Alabama	-16 (41/57)	+6 (50/44)	-22
Wisconsin	-33 (32/65)	-12 (42/54)	-21
Missouri	-28 (35/63)	-10 (42/52)	-18
Iowa	-33 (32/65)	-17 (39/56)	-16
Ohio	-29 (34/63)	-20 (38/58)	-9
AVERAGE	-33.8	-9.9	-23.9

That - along with the plummeting of new Kentucky Republican voters over the past two years and this month's landslide defeat of Governor Fletcher (R) -- really paints a picture that a political realignment is happening here in a noticeable way and these dynamics couldn't be happening to McConnell at a worse time.

Does that lead me to believe that Kentucky is becoming a Democratic state again? No, I wouldn't go that far.

But I do believe these trends tell us that Kentucky is much more politically comparable to the Midwest swing states than it is to the South, which is how the state seemed to behave for much of the past decade, until around 2005 when we began to see a subtle but steady change in the political attitudes of Kentucky voters, leading to John Yarmuth's (D) defeat of Anne Northup (R) in the 3rd congressional district and this year's defeat of Fletcher and plunging approval numbers for McConnell.

This is why McConnell should be even more concerned and why the environment is right for a serious challenge of both U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis' (R) and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield's (R) congressional seat, as well as the take-back of the state Senate.

(Note: While SurveyUSA has conducted monthly Bush approval tracking in the states since May 2005, about a year ago it narrowed its month survey from all 50 states to 15 states, which is why the above chart only lists those states.)

The Rothenberg Political Report Says Yarmuth's Seat "Not In Play"

Good news for U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D), as the The Rothenberg Political Report -- one of top national political analyst -- says his seat is "not in play". That should seriously affect any challenger's ability to attract much national money:

Of the 30 seats taken over by Democrats a year ago, 12 seats appear not to be in play in 2008 — those now held by Reps. Michael Arcuri (New York’s 24th district), Bruce Braley (Iowa’s 1st), Joe Courtney (Connecticut’s 2nd), Joe Donnelly (Indiana’s 2nd), Paul Hodes (New Hampshire’s 2nd), Ron Klein (Florida’s 22nd), Dave Loebsack (Iowa’s 2nd), Patrick Murphy (Pennsylvania’s 8th), Ed Perlmutter (Colorado’s 7th), Joe Sestak (Pennsylvania’s 7th), Heath Shuler (North Carolina’s 11th) and John Yarmuth (Kentucky’s 3rd).

Lessons Not Learned

John Cheves penned an excellent story in this weekend's Herald-Leader on how Governor Fletcher's (R) attempts to play the "gay card" backfired on him and references, among other things, the Fletcher folks' obsession with San Francisco references.

You'll recall how in the final days how lieutenant governor candidate Robbie Rudolph (R) called the Beshear-Mongiardo "San Francisco treats" and then they sent robo-calls taped by homophobic entertainer Pat Boone warning that under Beshear Kentucky would "become another San Francisco."

Well, despite the failure of their San Francisco obsession to win their side votes, it seems that other Republicans in Kentucky haven't learned any lesson from their losing candidate's strategy. Case-in-point: conservative blogger Jefferson Poole has taken to referring to U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) as:

Representative John Yarmuth (D - KY / San Francisco)

These guys just don't learn their lessons quickly, do they? Though, I suppose Democrats should root that they keep going down this clearly idiotic path...

Denial Sets In For Republicans

I can't help but notice that some of our Republican friends are posting comments this morning that last night's election told us nothing other than the voters dislike Governor Fletcher (R) and that Democrats didn't gain anything last night and that U.S. Senator McConnell (R) is just fine.

No doubt, there was a palpable feeling that Fletcher needed to be ousted, and that surely drove much of the voters' desire. Those are cute talking points, but they fail to address things like this:

1. Why has new voters registering as Republican plummeted since 2005, after reaching parity that year, especially its precipitous drop for five consecutive months heading into yesterday's election?
                     
2. Why are Senator McConnell's (R) favorables and re-elect numbers under that magical 50% mark in most independent polls?
                        
3. Why is Hillary Clinton (D) is outperforming Senator McConnell (R) in Kentucky in hypothetical general election match-up?

And that does even address President Bush's (R) rock-bottom job approval in Kentucky, the fact that Democrats are in full-control of two crucial congressional districts, that Fletcher lost the three Northern Kentucky counties by seven points -- when Republican leadership made clear in recent weeks that NKY would remain a Fletcher strong-hold.

It's understandable that Republicans are going to try to find the silver-lining in last night's results, but it's important to separate fact from fiction and we're already seeing them spin their little fables, hoping the media will report the same.

Kentucky has not magically transformed itself into a blue state, but voters sure seems a lot more willing to embrace Democrats of late, based on their actions at the voting booth, how they are registering to vote, and their attitudes that recent polling has made very clear.

Though, as a Democrat, I sure hope this state of denial lingers for a while...

KY3: Erwin Roberts' (R) Fool's Errand

Not to dive too far into the 2008 cycle yet -- because I am so enjoying 2007 -- but I can't figure out for the life of me why former Fletcher Personnel Secretary -- and named unindicted co-conspirator -- Erwin Roberts (R) is seriously undertaking a race against U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) in the 3rd Congressional District. It amazes me that Roberts, who seems like a smart guy, thinks he has any shot at unseating Yarmuth next year.

Let's review the hurdles he must overcome to have any hopes of successfully climbing this Mt. Everest of a political race:

1. Unindicted Co-conspirator/5th Amendment. The fact that Roberts, as Personnel Secretary, was named an "unindicted co-conspirator" for his involvement in Governor Fletcher's (R) Merit System scandal -- and invoked the 5th Amendment before the grand jury -- seems an immediate disqualifier to me. How does a congressional candidate, running to join an institution so riddled with corruption of late (especially in his own party), get the voters to overlook these items?
          
2. Resignation Letter. When Roberts left the Fletcher Administration in May 2006, he tendered an especially glowing resignation letter to Fletcher which stated things like "It has been an honor to be part of bringing positive change to Kentucky under your leadership" and "it has always been clear to me that you care first and foremost about the great people of the commonwealth." Seriously. (Click here for the actual letter)
         
3. 3rd CD Demographics. Aside from the fact that Democrats maintain a 58-33 edge over Republicans in voter registration in the congressional district, the district preferred Al Gore (D) and John Kerry (D) while President Bush (R) won the state by 20 points. The fact that Anne Northup (R) won and held this seat appears much more than exception than the rule and she certainly benefited from a national Republican wave, aside from her tenacious campaign style and fundraising prowess.
                  
4. Democratic Governor. Assuming the lack of divine intervention in the next 42 days, Roberts will be running against a Democratic incumbent just as Steve Beshear (D) is elected governor by an expected landslide margin, not to mention expected huge victories by Auditor Crit Luallen (D), and Louisvillians Jack Conway (D) as attorney general and Todd Hollenbach (D) as treasurer. Those are pretty good re-inforcements for a incumbent to turn to for support.
             
5. National Tide. 2008 is shaping-up as another very bad year for Republicans. Aside from the presidency -- which is trending hard towards the Democrats in polling -- pundits like conservative columnist Robert Novak see an additional 5 to 8 seat loss in the U.S. Senate and doesn't rule-out that Democrats could pick a 9th seat and acquire a 60-seat filibuster-proof margin. Others believe that Republicans could lose another 20-30 House seats as well. And that's not even touching whether Senator McConnell (R) will find himself in a real race, ginning-up Louisville turnout and all the Democrats who would eagerly cast a vote against him. If 2004 was the high-tide to be running as a Republican, 2008 might be the low-tide.
            
6. Money, Money, Money. It's hard to overlook the financial issues in trying to unseat an incumbent, particularly when you don't have a stiff wind at your sails. In his first quarter, Roberts raised just $43,292 and has a cash balance of $25,749. Those are not the sort of fundraising numbers that create confidence in national parties, as $100k raised is regarded as the minimum threshold for challengers in their first quarter of fundraising. Meanwhile, Yarmuth has already raised $600,000 this year and has a cash balance of $455,979. And let's not forget that Yarmuth has the ability to write a check into his own account if ever necessary.
                   
7. Fletcher. Putting aside the unindicted co-conspirator thing, being associated with Fletcher is radioactive in Louisville. As we saw from last week's Bluegrass Poll, in just the 3rd Congressional District Fletcher trails by a staggering 68-17 margin, his favorable rating is just 11% while unfavorable is 67%, and just 7.6% believe he has cleaned-up the mess in Frankfort. Not good to be running on your accomplishments as Fletcher's personnel chief among such voters.
               
8. Seniority. And aside from all the things above, Roberts would have to convince Democratic voters to oust a Democratic incumbent who is a member of the Democratic-majority Congress while another Democrat likely sits in the Oval Office and replace him with a freshman Republican.

And nothing I wrote above even touches Roberts' politics, another potential problem for the Republican in the strongly Democratic district at a time when Democrats dominate the issue battery in the minds of Americans.

So why in the world would Erwin Roberts believe he could overcome any of these hurdles, yet alone all of them?

Seems like a fool's errand to me.

Follow The Money

If you're interested in knowing how Kentucky's federal delegation gets its bread buttered, MAPLight.org has an update on the campaign finance breakdown for each of our state's members for the most recently completed cycle.

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $250,047
ATTORNEY $122,100
PHYSICIAN $91,801
FARMER $74,860
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $62,700
SELF-EMPLOYED $42,850
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $41,250
HUMANA INC $38,877
GRIFFIN INDUSTRIES $38,800
PEABODY ENERGY $35,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $390,848
Retired $242,047
Security brokers & investment companies $234,949
Pro-Israel $173,735
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $168,550
Lobbyists & public relations $147,295
Farmers, in general $121,160
Hospitals $121,100
Physicians $115,177
Coal mining $108,600

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $184,175
ATTORNEY $62,770
PHYSICIAN $58,750
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,100
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS $20,000
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $17,050
ASHLAND INC $16,250
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $15,000
FARMER $13,750
RJ REYNOLDS TOBACCO $13,500

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $191,984
Retired $188,875
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $164,199
Security brokers & investment companies $130,243
Other physician specialists $125,800
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $117,949
Lobbyists & public relations $94,516
Physicians $81,750
Pro-Israel $64,900
Life insurance $61,083

U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers (R-KY5)

[organizations]
ATTORNEY $18,000
ADDINGTON ENTERPRISES $17,800
RETIRED $17,450
BEECHFORK PROCESSING $16,000
CONSULTANT $13,850
FIRST NATIONAL BANK $12,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
GEO GROUP $10,000
GENERAL ELECTRIC $10,000
LOCKHEED MARTIN $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $40,700
Engineers - type unknown $28,900
Lobbyists & public relations $25,400
Business services $25,050
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $21,000
Defense areospace contractors $21,000
Civil servant/public employee $20,750
Mining $20,000
Vegetables, fruits & tree nuts $18,900
Retired $17,450

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY4)

[organizations]
RETIRED $191,705
SELF-EMPLOYED $22,882
ATTORNEY $18,900
EMERALD COAL $16,500
INVESTOR $15,050
AMERICAN BANKERS ASSN $15,000
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $14,100
CNG FINANCIAL $12,700
CINTAS CORP $11,600
DRS TECHNOLOGIES $11,200

[interests]
Retired $191,705
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $91,727
Attorneys & law firms $85,900
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $70,550
Credit agencies & finance companies $53,550
Lobbyists & public relations $52,603
Security brokers & investment companies $49,432
Residential construction $41,800
Coal mining $39,050
Mortgage bankers & brokers $37,550

U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R-KY2)

[organizations]
SELF-EMPLOYED $52,607
RETIRED $38,010
PHYSICIAN $24,060
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,350
ATTORNEY $14,800
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $14,499
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $10,250
AMERICAN PHYSICAL THERAPY ASSN $10,000
AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSN $10,000
PINKERTON TOBACCO $10,000

[interests]
General commerce $57,707
Tobacco & tobacco products $46,850
Physicians $41,060
Retired $38,010
Hospitals $36,600
Other physician specialists $33,450
Attorneys & law firms $31,150
Wine & distilled spirits manufacturing $28,077
Lobbyists & public relations $27,494
Accident & health insurance $21,500

U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield (R-KY1)

[organizations]
RETIRED $33,350
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $21,250
PHYSICIAN $21,200
AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP $12,250
NATIONAL CABLE & TELECOMMUNICATIONS ASSN $11,000
AT&T INC $10,000
UNION PACIFIC CORP $10,000
PFIZER INC $10,000
WINE & SPIRITS WHOLESALERS OF AMERICA $10,000
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,000

[interests]
Other physician specialists $76,785
Pharmaceutical manufacturing $38,752
Telephone utilities $35,000
Retired $33,350
Physicians $33,200
Attorneys & law firms $32,100
Railroads $25,600
Tobacco & tobacco products $23,500
Pharmaceutical wholesale $21,250
Liquor wholesalers $20,500

U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (R-KY6)

[organizations]
RETIRED $37,600
ATTORNEY $19,300
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,500
INTL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS $10,000
NATIONAL ASSN OF REALTORS $10,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
NATIONAL AUTO DEALERS ASSN $10,000
IRONWORKERS UNION $10,000
TEAMSTERS UNION $10,000
FARM CREDIT COUNCIL $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $69,924
Construction unions $49,000
Retired $37,600
Manufacturing unions $30,000
Air transport unions $18,700
Farmers, in general $18,550
Express delivery services $15,499
Restaurants & drinking establishments $15,450
Liquor wholesalers $15,000
Banks & lending institutions $14,900

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY3)
No data yet

Not To Be Picky...But There Was That "Unindicted Co-Conspirator" Thingee...(And Invoking The 5th Amendment)

Funny, but whoever pitched CQ Politics on this puff piece about former Personnel Secretary Erwin Roberts (R) taking his first step to challenge U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) next year conveniently left out the part about Roberts being the Personnel Secretary during the Fletcher Administration's hiring scandal and him being named an unindicted co-conspirator during that investigation.

Kinda odd that between being the mention of his 2004 stint as state homeland security director and his 2006 departure from the administration was nary a word of all the stuff that happened in 2005 and 2006 culminating in his unindicted co-conspirator status. In fact, the story mentions the scandal in the context of Governor Fletcher (R) but nothing about Roberts' own intimate involvement whatsoever.

Someone might want to let the CQ's writer, Greg Giroux, know that he either got spun badly or didn't do his homework before writing this puff piece. Either way, it's pretty sloppy and I'm certain Yarmuth is smiling at the idea that Roberts might be his opponent.

Yarmuth’s Job Security Gets Test From Kentucky’s Ex-Homeland Security Chief
By Greg Giroux, CQ Politics

Political campaigning rarely takes time off in Kentucky, which holds its elections for governor in odd-numbered years. And most of the attention in Kentucky politics currently is focused on the battle between incumbent Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher and Democrat Steve Beshear, a former lieutenant governor, that was set up by their victories in the May 22 primary.

Yet even as Fletcher and Beshear gear up for their general election campaigns, some candidates are preparing for next year’s congressional elections in Kentucky. One of the latest of these is Republican lawyer Erwin Roberts, who is vying to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. John A. Yarmuth in the Louisville-centered 3rd District.

Last Wednesday — a day after the gubernatorial primary — Roberts filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to formally organize his campaign against Yarmuth, who last year ousted five-term Republican Rep. Anne M. Northup. Northup sought a comeback by challenging Fletcher in the recent GOP primary for governor, but was defeated.

Roberts is a former federal prosecutor with a background in homeland security. He joined Fletcher’s administration in March 2004 as Kentucky’s first homeland security director, and later served as Fletcher’s Secretary of the Personnel Cabinet. He left in June 2006 and is now counsel to the Louisville law firm of Frost Brown Todd.

Earlier this year, Roberts endorsed Northup for governor over Fletcher, who has poor approval ratings in part because of a merit-hiring scandal.

The Kentucky 3rd District contest also is notable in that Roberts, who is African-American, is seeking a seat in a chamber that presently has no black Republicans. Ken Spain, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), praised Roberts as “an incredibly talented individual.”

“We’re extremely excited about his candidacy,” Spain said of Roberts, who recently attended the NRCC’s candidate training school in Washington...

Update (5:42 pm): Tom Loftus reminded me in his post one other item about Roberts that I omitted, namely that he was one of those Fletcher Administration officials that invoked his 5th Amendment rights during the hiring investigation and refused to testify before the grand jury about corruption at the highest level.

So, the congressional wannabee was not only an unindicted co-conspirator, but he also refused to testify about political corruption by invoking his right against self-incrimination. Maybe those career highlights were sufficient for a candidate between 1994 and 2006, but something tells me Louisville voters are looking for a little more than just a resume.

Former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R) said it best a few months ago:

She said Fletcher's decision to take the Fifth Amendment, rather than testify before the grand jury investigating his administration's personnel practices in August 2005, sent the wrong message to Kentuckians.

"I ask you to compare that to the current president, when there was the Scooter Libby trial, whose top people went down there and testified, testified, testified," she said. "Kentuckians have said in every way they can, that (taking the Fifth Amendment) is not acceptable."

Indeed.

Edwin Edwards (D) v. David Duke (R), Redux?

As I'm sure you know, the latest Survey USA poll was released yesterday.

I wanted to vomit.

Not because the numbers for candidates I am rooting for were not as good as other recent surveys I've seen (though certainly that's part of it). Mainly I wanted to vomit out of a profound sadness that Kentucky primary voters are inclined to nominate (runoff notwithstanding) the two biggest pariahs to face each other in the fall (Ernie Fletcher and Bruce Lunsford), setting up a fall campaign that would be tantamount to the 1991 Louisiana Governor's race between the crook, Edwin Edwards (D), and the racist, David Duke (R).

That year, Louisiana voters were faced with such an unimaginable choice between two evils that bumper stickers on cars contained slogans such as "Vote for the Crook. It's Important," and "Vote for the Lizard, not the Wizard." It's amazing to me that the two candidates solidly opposed by the thoughtful core of each political party could possibly be leading with three weeks to go, albeit with percentages of just 29% and 46%, hardly indicators of strong support.

Though, I can't fathom being faced with such a situation this fall because 1) there's no chance that I would consider a vote for Bruce Lunsford in the fall regardless of who the Republican nominate (my party loyalty stops with him), and 2) there's no chance that I could ever cast a vote for someone so incompetent and dishonest as Fletcher, a man who is effectively Judas in Jesus clothing.

(Note: While I feel almost that way about Steve Henry (D), at least I believe, based on his demonstrated history, that Henry is a Democrat. A dishonest, pathological, unethical, manipulative, cheating, thieving Democrat...but a Democrat. Hence, I would vote for Henry over Fletcher...at least. Lunsford isn't a Democrat, he's a political opportunist. His political contributions, his support of Fletcher and other Kentucky Republicans, his long-time friendship with McConnell, his clear anti-union practices over the years, give us every reason to doubt that man has any core political beliefs (just like Fletcher), yet alone Democratic ones.)

So, if Survey USA is accurate, this will likely be the first election in my lifetime where the best choice is to exercise my right not to cast a vote for governor. There are plenty of excellent candidates running down-ballot that I am eager to support, but I will certainly skip the first race if I must choose between two pariahs. There is no "lesser" between the two that I've yet to discern.

So, yes, I was disappointed with Survey USA. While I have some serious qualms with some of its findings (like an unbelievably low 7% undecided among Democrats), I'm saddened more than anything.

As far as candidates go, they should always trust their own pollsters. You don't spend tens of thousands of dollars to do your own research and then throw it away when an independent poll contradicts it. If that was the case, John Yarmuth (D) would have closed-down his shop after the Bluegrass Poll showed him trailing Anne Northup (R) by six points with barely a week to go. Independent polls are very useful in that they help you see trends. They are powerful when they confirm what your poll tells you. But when they vastly depart from your own poll, you don't change course. You keep fighting. You stick to your campaign plan. And then you hope that your next poll doesn't mimic the independent poll. But there are still three weeks to go and we've not even reached Derby yet.

But if Survey USA is to believed, we ought to brush-up on our Edwards v. Duke history and see how Louisianans dealt with it. Ultimately, Edwards won that election but, not unexpectedly, was later convicted on 17 federal criminal counts including racketeering and extortion and is in federal prison until 2011. Meanwhile, David Duke, who also found himself in legal hot water, has most recently been seen in Tehran at a conference held by Iranian President Ahmadinejad questioning the Holocaust, where he told the delegation that gas chambers were not used to kill six million Jews. Louisiana voters were right on the money about these two characters.

God save the Commonwealth...

Fundraising

Last week, we learned that Senator McConnell (R) has raised nearly $6 million for his 2008 re-election.

So, I thought I'd take a look at our other federal officials.

Senator Bunning (R) raised $45,445 during the 1st quarter of 2007, leaving him with a cash balance of $113,607. So far, he's raised $256,527 toward his 2010 re-election.

Here's how the state's U.S. House members are doing:

Member	Q1 2007 Raised	Q1 2007 Spent	Cash-On-Hand
Davis (R-KY4)	$317,479	$144,531	$239,720
Yarmuth (D-KY3)	$303,892	$37,249	$292,695
Chandler (D-KY6)	$140,221	$21,686	$708,648
Lewis (R-KY2)	$110,040	$14,530	$153,072
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$56,950	$52,840	$692,987
Rogers (R-KY5)	$16,000	$46,923	$988,196

Both Davis and Yarmuth are aggressively raising funds for their 2008 re-election, though Davis' campaign finance reports shows he spent about $90,000 in various "Direct Mail Expenses."  I'm a little surprised by Lewis' paltry showing given that he should expect another serious challenge next year.

By the way for comparison, here's where things stood two years ago after the 1st quarter of 2005 filing:

Member	Q1 2005 Raised	Q1 2005 Spent	Cash-On-Hand
Northup (R-KY3)	$385,506	$37,375	$390,321
Davis (R-KY4)	$274,067	$102,895	$283,809
Chandler(D-KY6)	$123,888	$55,160	$240,021
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$96,396	$40,696	$751,123
Lewis (R-KY2)	$16,468	$29,109	$314,770
Rogers (R-KY5)	$11,000	$55,490	$896,489

Yarmuth Blasts McCain

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) calls out Senator John McCain (R-Ariz) on his ludicrous statements of late asserting that there are neighborhoods in Baghdad where Americans can safely walk the streets:

“I think that was as self-destructive a statement as you can make politically, because it’s so patently absurd on its face,” Yarmuth said. “He loses all credibility to talk about the subject now.”

Indeed.

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) Not On Karl Rove's Top 20 Target List For 2008

TPMmuckraker has the skinny on a presentation that Karl Rove's deputy (Kentucky's own Scott Jennings) gave to personnel of the General Services Administration (GSA) staff earlier this year and was produced in conjunction with congressional testimony today by its top official. The presentation reveals a number of particularly relevant Kentucky-specific items.

First, one page of Rove's power point was entitled "2008 House Targets: Top 20" and not included on that list was U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D). That's right, John is not considered by Rove as one of their Top 20 targets in 2008. All three of the Indiana seats that Democrats flipped last year are listed, but not Yarmuth.

Here's that page (click image for larger version):

However, U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) is named on another Rove chart entitled "2008 House GOP Defense" under the column "Secondary Defense". No other Kentucky House seats are mentioned in the presentation.

Additionally, in discussing where the ground game worked and didn't work in 2006 House races, it reveals interesting information concerning KY3 (Northup) and KY4 (Davis).

Apparently, the final polls taken in the 2006 races showed that Anne Northup (R) had a 13-point lead over John Yarmuth (D) (50% to 37%), but lost that race by two points. Meanwhile, Geoff Davis (R) was leading Ken Lucas (D) by just 1-point (44% to 43%) but won his race by seven points.

By the way, the underlying testimony regarding Jennings' efforts with GSA officials is pretty sketchy as well as I suspect we haven't heard the last of it. Seems that Mr. Jennings is finding himself in the national news a little more than he'd like. Recall this recent development.

Here's what TPMmuckraker wrote:

After the presentation, Doan reportedly asked other employees how the agency could help "our candidates." The GSA, remember, is the government's procurement agency, in charge of almost $60 billion each year. All of this seems like a clear violation of the Hatch Act, which prohibits using federal resources to aid political parties.

Click here for Rove's entire 13-page presentation.

Think Progress has great coverage as well.

Yarmuth Questions CIA's Valerie Plame Wilson

Valerie Plame Wilson is testifying this morning before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform concerning the 2003 leak of her covert CIA status. First to question her was none other than U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D).

The testimony is ongoing on C-SPAN right now if you're in front of the television.

The Washington Post has a story this morning on her testimony.

UPDATE: Fascinating testimony so far. Under oath, Plame Wilson testified that:

• she was always a covert CIA agent;
• she had secretly traveled abroad in the years surrounding the leak;
• she had nothing to do with sending or recommending or suggesting her husband be sent to Niger investigate bogus claims that Saddam Hussein tried to buy yellow cake uranium from Niger.

This testimony is blowing-away the pathetic narrative that the Republicans have tried to proffer over the years that she wasn't covert or was the one who sent her husband to Niger. It's so infuriating to watch this...

UPDATE #2 (1:59 PM): Yarmuth's office just released audio excerpts from the hearing. Click here to listen.

2007 Congressional Power Rankings

Congress.org just released its 2007 Congressional Power Rankings and Rep. Ben Chandler's (D) move to a majority member of the Appropriations Committee has landed him at the top spot among Kentucky's six House members, even leaping ahead of Rep. Hal Rogers (R):

UPDATE: Just found the previous years' rankings in their respect chambers:

2007 ranking (2006 ranking) (2005 ranking)

McConnell 5 (4)(7)
Bunning 64 (69) (63)

Chandler -- 143 (381) (413)
Rogers -- 194 (14) (20)
Whitfield -- 281 (252) (190)
Yarmuth -- 316 (no previous ranking)
Lewis -- 332 (202) (235)
Davis -- 397 (100) (168)

House Passes Employee Free Choice Act

This afternoon, the U.S. House passed one of the more significant pieces of labor law reform in 70 years when it approved by a 241 to 185 vote the Employee Free Choice Act. And like most pieces of popular legislation to help working-class Americans that has passed the House since January, only Rep. Ben Chandler (D) and Rep. John Yarmuth (D) supported the measure among the Kentucky delegation.

AP:

The legislation, also called the card check bill, would certify a union as soon as a majority of workers at a plant signed cards authorizing it. Currently, employers can require elections, overseen by the National Labor Relations Board, on whether a union should be recognized.

The labor rights group American Rights at Work said that, in the run-up to such elections, 80 percent of employers hire union-busting consultants and 90 percent force employees to attend one-on-one anti-union meetings with their supervisors.

The legislation would toughen penalties against employers who violate worker rights during organizing drives and set up a binding arbitration process to prevent companies from thwarting a new union by bargaining in bad faith on an initial contract.

"In many places, when you exercise your right to organize, you get fired, you get intimidated, you get harassed, you get followed home," said Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., chairman of the House Education and Labor Committee.

The AFL-CIO said:

Congress today has recognized that collective bargaining is critical in this democracy as it is in every other democracy around the world. Passage today of the Employee Free Choice Act by the House of Representative is a first step towards restoring the core of the preamble of the National Labor Relations Act passed 70 years ago that commits our government to promote collective bargaining in the workplace, not an endless legal battle with management declaring war on their own employees.

House Passes Resolution Expressing Disapproval For Iraq Escalation

By a 246-182 vote, the U.S. House this afternoon rebuked President Bush (R) over his Iraq escalation with 17 Republican members crossing party lines to support the resolution while 2 Democrats voted no.

Again showing themselves completely out-of-touch with Kentucky voters, all four Republican congressmen voted against the resolution while Reps. Ben Chandler (D) and John Yarmuth (D) backed the resolution.

The actual text of the resolution read:

Disapproving of the decision of the President announced on January 10, 2007, to deploy more than 20,000 additional United States combat troops to Iraq.

Resolved by the House of Representatives (the Senate concurring), That--

(1) Congress and the American people will continue to support and protect the members of the United States Armed Forces who are serving or who have served bravely and honorably in Iraq; and

(2) Congress disapproves of the decision of President George W. Bush announced on January 10, 2007, to deploy more than 20,000 additional United States combat troops to Iraq.

John Yarmuth (D) and "The Way Down South"

Bob Moser just published a very interesting assessment of whether Democrats can reclaim the South in the latest edition of The Nation.

In it, Moser highlights how U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) became the lone Southern congressional candidate the national Democrats didn't want to support (because his strategy and positions didn't fit their mold of the type of Democrat that could win in the South) but who went on to win his race.

The whole piece is a terrific read, but here's the portion concerning John's victory:

But Dean's approach--both in his campaign and with his new "fifty-state strategy" for the DNC--was hardly a hit with white national party leaders, who complained bitterly about the expense of hiring Democratic organizers, in the words of ex-Clinton adviser Paul Begala, to "wander around Utah and Mississippi and pick their nose." In the 2006 midterms, national Democratic campaign committees shunned the fifty-state approach and backed only a handful of Democrats in the South. The chosen Southerners fit the "Republican Lite" mold to a T: social conservatives who emphasized "fiscal responsibility" and steered clear of calling for troop withdrawals in Iraq. The ideal Southern campaign, agreed Begala and his ilk, was Harold Ford Jr.'s lavishly financed Senate bid in Tennessee. Aiming to "out-Republican" his opponent, Ford spent the campaign bashing "illegals," waving the flag, ridiculing the very notion of gay marriage and calling up a quote from the Bible to address every issue.

Ford's loss was widely chalked up to race-baiting attack ads run by the Republican National Committee. But his defeat--like those of all but one of the Democrats' chosen candidates in the South last year--can also be viewed as a lesson in the limitations of Clintonian compromise. So can the results from the border South state of Kentucky, where self-described "liberal" John Yarmuth--whose pleas for national funds fell on deaf ears--pulled off a startling upset in the state's 3rd Congressional District by running a campaign that was the antithesis of Ford's. "The mistake Democrats have made here over the years is that they never provided a sharp contrast," says Yarmuth, who bested five-term Republican incumbent Anne Northup. "I said from day one, 'Anne and I are 180 degrees apart. If she believes something, I don't.' I was that clear. I wanted the voters to have a real choice and see where they'd go." They went with the frank-talking, antiwar, labor-loving candidate his own party considered too "liberal" to win. Meanwhile, the two party-funded challengers in Kentucky, both staunch social conservatives aiming to join the Blue Dog Coalition in Congress, got their clocks cleaned. "There's a Beltway mentality that succumbs too much to conventional punditry," says Yarmuth. "The voters are way ahead of the Democrats and way ahead of Washington."

Say what you will about John's politics, but his refusal to smooth-over differences with Northup so as to not alienate some more conservative Democrats was an exceptionally smart, and ballsy, move. John offered the voters a very clear contrast and didn't try to sugar-coat his positions or embrace some aspects of the war in Iraq out of some fear that he would be perceived as anti-military.

Contrast that to the campaign of former U.S. Rep. Ken Lucas (D) who said the war was a mistake but refused to offer any meaningful difference on how to proceed with his opponent U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R). Lucas lost to Davis by eight points.

While I admit it's not fair to compare the voters of Yarmuth's swing district to those in Lucas' conservative district, I do think Lucas hurt himself by not offering a clear contrast on the war. I can't help but conclude that the 5% that the libertarian candidate (Brian Houillion) got in the 4th Congressional District was largely the result of the anti-war voters feeling like they had no real option. In contrast, the two third-party candidates in the 3rd Congressional District received a total of 1.2%, less than one-fourth of Houillion's support, in race where voters had a clear anti-war option among the major party candidates.

Anyway, I encourage you to read the whole piece.

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) Joins With 18 Freshmen Democrats To Oppose Iraq Surge In Letter To President Bush

Yesterday, U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) released the contents of a letter that he and 18 other freshmen House Democrats sent to President Bush opposing the escalation in Iraq. (The Courier-Journal has a story as well).

Click jump-link below for the text of the letter: