BluegrassReport.org

Kentucky's Clear Blue Shift

One of the recent signs that have made more predict that U.S. Sen. McConnell (R) is in for a rougher re-election fight than expected is the fact that President Bush's (R) job approval numbers in Kentucky have plummeted to a disastrously low 35% approve and 65% disapprove.

Indeed, those numbers do suggest that the man who has proudly defended and advanced the Bush agenda ought to be very concerned. But a closer look at those numbers tell an even more problematic story for McConnell.

You see, while Bush is becoming less popular in Kentucky, he's also getting less popular in the other 49 states, so simply using Bush's plunging numbers in Kentucky only tell part of the story. But where things are much more instructive is to see where Bush has dropped more than elsewhere over the past few years.

When you do that, you'll notice that in only one state (New Mexico) has Bush's job performance tumbled more than it has in Kentucky -- among those states which SurveyUSA has been testing monthly since May 2005 -- when you compare the differences in President Bush's net rating (approval minus disapproval):

State	Nov 2007	May 2005	Diff
New Mexico	-35 (32/67)	-4 (46/50)	-31
Kentucky	-27 (35/62)	+2 (49/47)	-29
California	-44 (26/70)	-15 (39/54)	-29
New York	-54 (22/76)	-25 (35/60)	-29
Minnesota	-30 (34/64)	-2 (47/49)	-28
Massachusetts	-54 (22/76)	-26 (35/61)	-28
Virginia	-32 (33/65)	-6 (44/50)	-26
Kansas	-21 (38/59)	+4 (49/45)	-25
Washington	-35 (31/66)	-10 (42/52)	-25
Oregon	-36 (31/67)	-13 (42/55)	-23
Alabama	-16 (41/57)	+6 (50/44)	-22
Wisconsin	-33 (32/65)	-12 (42/54)	-21
Missouri	-28 (35/63)	-10 (42/52)	-18
Iowa	-33 (32/65)	-17 (39/56)	-16
Ohio	-29 (34/63)	-20 (38/58)	-9
AVERAGE	-33.8	-9.9	-23.9

That - along with the plummeting of new Kentucky Republican voters over the past two years and this month's landslide defeat of Governor Fletcher (R) -- really paints a picture that a political realignment is happening here in a noticeable way and these dynamics couldn't be happening to McConnell at a worse time.

Does that lead me to believe that Kentucky is becoming a Democratic state again? No, I wouldn't go that far.

But I do believe these trends tell us that Kentucky is much more politically comparable to the Midwest swing states than it is to the South, which is how the state seemed to behave for much of the past decade, until around 2005 when we began to see a subtle but steady change in the political attitudes of Kentucky voters, leading to John Yarmuth's (D) defeat of Anne Northup (R) in the 3rd congressional district and this year's defeat of Fletcher and plunging approval numbers for McConnell.

This is why McConnell should be even more concerned and why the environment is right for a serious challenge of both U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis' (R) and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield's (R) congressional seat, as well as the take-back of the state Senate.

(Note: While SurveyUSA has conducted monthly Bush approval tracking in the states since May 2005, about a year ago it narrowed its month survey from all 50 states to 15 states, which is why the above chart only lists those states.)

The Shameless Hypocrisy Of The GOP On Casinos...Isn't It Time For The Kentucky Media To Take A Critical Look?

Okay, let's get down to business and start peeling the rotten onion that Governor Fletcher (R) is trying to pass-off as his campaign platform.

This is pretty pathetic. As I said in my earlier post, an incumbent governor nearly four years into his failed term doesn't get to campaign on platitudes and his latest vision rooted firmly into yet another painful flip-flop. No, an incumbent governor has to run on his record. Fletcher would rather run from it and instead is trying to deceive the public on issues where he had a rather sudden (and shameless) metamorphosis just a few months ago: domestic partner benefits and gambling.

Let's leave the domestic partner flip-flop for another time. Instead, let's talk about gaming for a minute, and hope that the media in Kentucky consider asking Fletcher & Crooks to explain the disturbingly hypocritical facts behind their latest dishonest propaganda.

One of the latest babbling talking points coming from Fletcher, his Mini-Me (Robbie Rudolph) and the man hoping to be the state's first theocratic attorney general (Stan Lee) is that somehow Democrats are in the pockets of gaming industry. According to Fletcher:

Fletcher claimed Beshear, a Lexington attorney and former lieutenant governor, "would buy his way to get casinos in the state."

Asked after his speech what he meant by that, Fletcher said, "He will bring in a bunch of casino money.

"He has said he has to get it passed ... He will have the resources from Vegas to get it done."

Then lunatic Lee blasted Jack Conway (D) for taking a contribution from Harrah's in 2002:

Even though Harrah's Entertainment Inc, a Las Vegas, Nevada based corporation that owns Caesars Indiana, gave $1,000 to Jack Conway's 2002 Congressional campaign, I am now calling on him to do the right thing, and stand with me in opposition to Steve Beshear and his misguided plan to make Kentucky the next Nevada."

Tisk, tisk. So much for the 9th commandment about bearing false witness.

First, let's take a look at who else Harrah's has contributed money to in the past few years:

HARRAH'S ENTERTAINMENT IMPACTS PUBLIC POLICY

• Republican Party of Kentucky -- $2,500 (2006)
• Kentucky Republican State Senate Caucus -- $2,500 (2006)
• Rogers for Congress -- $1,000 (2006)
• Bluegrass Committee (McConnell) -- $1,000 (2004)
• Fletcher/Pence Inaugural Committee -- $5,000 (2004)
• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $5,000 (2004)
• Bunning for Senate -- $2,000 (2004)
• Whitfield for Congress -- $1,000 (2000)
• Northup for Congress -- $1,000 (2000)
• Whitfield for Congress -- $5,000 (1998)
• Northup for Congress -- $7,500 (1998)
• Bunning for Senate -- $7,000 (1998)

Got that? Harrah's may have given Conway $1,000 in 2002, but they gave Kentucky Republicans -- including Fletcher's own inaugural committee -- more than $40,000, much of it a lot more recently than 2002. (Note -- the Harrah's link above only lists federal contributions. Click here and here for the state contributions to RPK, Fletcher, and the KYGOP Senate Caucus).

Also, maybe someone should ask the RPK about its June 2005 expenditures for a trip Las Vegas (when they stayed at Wynn Las Vegas Resort), right at the same time the RPK and the Republican Senate Caucus scored $5,000 from Harrah's. Isn't that worth asking, seeing that Fletcher and Lee think casino contributions are so important. Who went to Vegas at RPK expense?

And that's just Harrah's. See below for the rest of the big gaming PACs (and I deliberately left-off Churchill Downs, to be generous to the GOP). The gaming PACs just love those Kentucky Republicans...

Also, aside from the tens of thousands in casino cash that Fletcher, Pence, RPK, David Williams Senate Caucus, McConnell, Bunning, Northup, and Whitfield have taken over the years...let's not forget the lobbyists for the interests that want casinos in Kentucky and who are paid to lobby the legislative and executive branches of Kentucky government:

CHURCHILL DOWNS: Among its lobbyists are John McCarthy (former Republican Party chairman), Jeff Speaks (former top Hal Rogers staffer),  Amy Wickliffe (former Chief of Staff to First Lady Glenna Fletcher), and Jason Bentley (former director of Fletcher Energy Policy office);

TURFWAY PARK:  Its sole paid lobbyist is Ellen Williams (former Republican party chair and former director of Fletcher's GOLD office);

ELLIS PARK: Its sole paid lobbyist is Kelley Abell (former executive director of the Republican Party).

In each case, the primary mission of these race track lobbyists was expanded gaming. In fact, check out this old post about a fundraising that U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz) hosted last year for the Republican State Senate Caucus and all of their names show up on the host committee. How perfect.

Of course, none of this includes the massive amounts of money that Fletcher and his Republican hypocrites have taken from Kentucky's top casino backers such as Jerry Carroll, Bob Elliston, Bill Yung, Bill Butler. Apparently, they don't count.

And beyond the aggressive efforts of current Lt. Governor Steve Pence (R), who traveled the Commonwealth (before he dropped off the ticket) evangelizing how important casinos were to Kentucky, was this little morsel that is the cherry on top of this sundae. It comes from a September 1999 story in the Las Vegas Review-Journal about all the fundraising invites that the American Gaming Association (see their KY GOP contributions below) had received from members of Congress that week:

Las Vegas Review-Journal (NV)
September 27, 1999   
Edition: FINAL EDITION

Pols reach out and put touch on gaming association
Author: Dave Berns

It was an average wave of solicitation cards and faxes that were received at American Gaming Association headquarters this past week in Washington, D.C.

Everyone from Rep. Steve Largent, R-Okla., an outspoken conservative who is close with gambling opponent James Dobson, to House Majority Whip Tom DeLay, R-Texas, who has ties to Venetian boss Sheldon Adelson, sought political donations from the casino industry's national lobbying arm. There were 25 invites in all.

For example:

-Donors giving $ 500 to $ 2,000 apiece were invited to an afternoon of 'tennis and camaraderie' with Largent, a rising star on the Republican right.

'Proceeds benefit Leadership for America's Future PAC (LEADPAC), a leadership PAC chaired by Congressman Steve Largent,' read a single-page invite. 'Contributions can be federal hard, nonfederal soft or individual.'

-Rep. Floyd Spence, R-S.C., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, invited potential $ 500 donors to his annual South Carolina barbecue at the Capitol Hill Club.

If you're unable to attend just check the box reading, 'I'm sorry. I will be unable to attend but am enclosing my check in the amount of $ '

-Rep. Ernie Fletcher, R-Kent., sent invites for a $ 1,000-a-person golfing fund raiser at the Peninsula Golf Resort in Lancaster, Ky.

Prizes were to be presented for a hole-in-one contest, the longest drive, coming closest to the pin.

No mention was made as to whether any specialized legislation would be a part of the prize package.

According to his federal campaign reports, it seems that Congressman Fletcher never did get any of the gaming money he sought with his fundraising invitation. But bless his little heart for trying.

We can disagree with whether casinos are good or not for the state. That's a legitimate debate. But we don't need a lecture about casino contributions from such a pack of shameless hypocritical Republicans who plainly see that their days in office are numbered. There is so much more to the gaming hypocrisy (including interesting tidbits about the casino preferences of high-rolling blow-hards like Senate President David Williams (R)), but I'll save those for another time.

Meanwhile, enjoy the list of all the Kentucky Republicans who have happily bathed in casino contributions over the years...

AMERICAN GAMING ASSOC

• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $2,500 (2006)
• Bunning for Senate -- $1,000 (2004)
• Bluegrass Committee (McConnell) -- $1,000 (indiv contrib, VP Sales) (2004)
• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $1,000 (2004)

BOYD GAMING

• Bunning for Senate -- $1,000 (2004)
• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $1,000 (2004)

CAESAR'S ENTERTAINMENT

• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $5,000 (2004)
• Northup for Congress -- $2,000 (2004)

HARRAH'S ENTERTAINMENT IMPACTS PUBLIC POLICY

• Republican Party of Kentucky -- $2,500 (2006)
• Kentucky Republican State Senate Caucus -- $2,500 (2006)
• Rogers for Congress -- $1,000 (2006)
• Bluegrass Committee (McConnell) -- $1,000 (2004)
• Fletcher/Pence Inaugural Committee -- $5,000 (2004)
• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $5,000 (2004)
• Bunning for Senate -- $2,000 (2004)
• Whitfield for Congress -- $1,000 (2000)
• Northup for Congress -- $1,000 (2000)
• Whitfield for Congress -- $5,000 (1998)
• Northup for Congress -- $7,500 (1998)
• Bunning for Senate -- $7,000 (1998)

MANDALAY RESORT GROUP

• Bunning for Senate -- $2,000 (2006)
• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $500 (2004)

MGM MIRAGE

• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $2,500 (2006)
• Northup for Congress -- $2,500 (2006)
• Bluegrass Committee (McConnell) -- $3,500 (2004)
• Whitfield for Congress -- $1,000 (2004)
• Northup for Congress -- $5,000 (2004)
• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $5,000 (2004)
• Bunning for Senate -- $3,000 (2004)

STATION CASINOS

• Bluegrass Committee (McConnell) -- $1,000 (2004)
• Bunning for Senate -- $1,000 (2004)
• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $2,500 (2004)

TROPICANO RESORT & CASINO

• Bluegrass Committee (McConnell) -- $2,000 (2004)
• Bunning for Senate -- $1,000 (2004)

P.S. -- It's good to be back...

Family Affair, Kentucky-Style

Today, the watchdog group CREW (Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington) released its "first-ever analysis of the misuse of power by the chairmen and ranking members of all House of Representative committees and subcommittees, as well as top leadership positions, to financially benefit their family members. The new report names 96 members from 33 states: 44 Democrats and 53 Republicans."

Among those are our own U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers (R) and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield (R).

From its report on Rogers:

HAROLD ROGERS (R-KY): Ranking member of the Subcommittee on Homeland Security of the House Committee on Appropriations.

Rep. Harold Rogers’ campaign committee, Hal Rogers for Congress, has paid a family member and has paid fees to a company that employs his wife. Additionally, Rep. Rogers appears to have used his influence to steer federal contracts to a company that employs his son.

Cynthia Doyle Rogers (wife):
• In his 2005 personal financial disclosure statement, Rep. Rogers reported that his wife, Cynthia Doyle Rogers, is employed by The Levatino Group. In the 2006 election cycle, Rep. Rogers’ campaign committee paid The Levatino Group $16,892 for fundraising.

Tracy Rogers (daughter-in-law):
• In the 2006 election cycle, Rep. Rogers’ campaign committee paid his daughter-in-law, Tracy Rogers, $24,000 for database management.
• In the 2004 election cycle, the campaign committee paid Ms. Rogers $24,000 for contract labor.
• In the 2002 election cycle, the campaign committee paid Ms. Rogers $24,000 for contract labor.

John Rogers (son):
• In 2002, Rep. Rogers intervened in a proposed plan to create new transportation worker identification cards by inserting language into appropriations bills that pushed the government to use the existing card type and to produce the cards in Corbin, Kentucky. In 2003, Rep. Rogers again intervened adding language that required a $4 million test of both card types; the test later showed the new cards were superior. The test was conducted by a Virginia based company, which shared its business with three companies in Corbin including Senture, a call center services company. In 2004, Senture won a contract to set up a call center for testing the identification cards. John Rogers was hired by Senture about the same time the contract was advertised, but before it was awarded.
• In 2004, Rep. Rogers arranged a $4 million Homeland Security contract for Senture to field calls from truckers.
• In 2004, Rep. Rogers steered a $2.9 million no-bid contract to a tourism group that then awarded a $1.2 million sub-contract to Senture.

From its report on Whitfield:

EDWARD WHITFIELD (R-KY): Ranking member of the Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce.

Rep. Whitfield’s campaign committee, Whitfield for Congress, has paid his daughter.

Kate Wilson (daughter):
• In the 2002 election cycle, the campaign committee paid his daughter, Kate Wilson, $500 in consulting fees.

Noteworthy is that this report doesn't look into the millions of dollars that flowed out of Rogers' leadership PAC (HALPAC) which contained considerable more money to his family members than did his congressional campaign account -- particularly to the fundraising firm (The Levantino Group) which employs his wife.

Also, since the report only looks at leadership-level members, so it omitted the $50,000 per year that U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) has been paying his wife from his campaign account.

And there's the never fully-explored situation of the $69,000 in mostly generic "travel reimbursements" that U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R) had paid himself over the past five years, which happens be 11 times greater than the average of all other Kentucky congressmen during the same time frame. Of course, unlike the Rogers, Whitfield, Lewis payments, those by Davis might be illegal...

Follow The Money

If you're interested in knowing how Kentucky's federal delegation gets its bread buttered, MAPLight.org has an update on the campaign finance breakdown for each of our state's members for the most recently completed cycle.

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $250,047
ATTORNEY $122,100
PHYSICIAN $91,801
FARMER $74,860
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $62,700
SELF-EMPLOYED $42,850
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $41,250
HUMANA INC $38,877
GRIFFIN INDUSTRIES $38,800
PEABODY ENERGY $35,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $390,848
Retired $242,047
Security brokers & investment companies $234,949
Pro-Israel $173,735
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $168,550
Lobbyists & public relations $147,295
Farmers, in general $121,160
Hospitals $121,100
Physicians $115,177
Coal mining $108,600

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $184,175
ATTORNEY $62,770
PHYSICIAN $58,750
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,100
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS $20,000
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $17,050
ASHLAND INC $16,250
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $15,000
FARMER $13,750
RJ REYNOLDS TOBACCO $13,500

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $191,984
Retired $188,875
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $164,199
Security brokers & investment companies $130,243
Other physician specialists $125,800
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $117,949
Lobbyists & public relations $94,516
Physicians $81,750
Pro-Israel $64,900
Life insurance $61,083

U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers (R-KY5)

[organizations]
ATTORNEY $18,000
ADDINGTON ENTERPRISES $17,800
RETIRED $17,450
BEECHFORK PROCESSING $16,000
CONSULTANT $13,850
FIRST NATIONAL BANK $12,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
GEO GROUP $10,000
GENERAL ELECTRIC $10,000
LOCKHEED MARTIN $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $40,700
Engineers - type unknown $28,900
Lobbyists & public relations $25,400
Business services $25,050
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $21,000
Defense areospace contractors $21,000
Civil servant/public employee $20,750
Mining $20,000
Vegetables, fruits & tree nuts $18,900
Retired $17,450

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY4)

[organizations]
RETIRED $191,705
SELF-EMPLOYED $22,882
ATTORNEY $18,900
EMERALD COAL $16,500
INVESTOR $15,050
AMERICAN BANKERS ASSN $15,000
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $14,100
CNG FINANCIAL $12,700
CINTAS CORP $11,600
DRS TECHNOLOGIES $11,200

[interests]
Retired $191,705
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $91,727
Attorneys & law firms $85,900
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $70,550
Credit agencies & finance companies $53,550
Lobbyists & public relations $52,603
Security brokers & investment companies $49,432
Residential construction $41,800
Coal mining $39,050
Mortgage bankers & brokers $37,550

U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R-KY2)

[organizations]
SELF-EMPLOYED $52,607
RETIRED $38,010
PHYSICIAN $24,060
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,350
ATTORNEY $14,800
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $14,499
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $10,250
AMERICAN PHYSICAL THERAPY ASSN $10,000
AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSN $10,000
PINKERTON TOBACCO $10,000

[interests]
General commerce $57,707
Tobacco & tobacco products $46,850
Physicians $41,060
Retired $38,010
Hospitals $36,600
Other physician specialists $33,450
Attorneys & law firms $31,150
Wine & distilled spirits manufacturing $28,077
Lobbyists & public relations $27,494
Accident & health insurance $21,500

U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield (R-KY1)

[organizations]
RETIRED $33,350
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $21,250
PHYSICIAN $21,200
AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP $12,250
NATIONAL CABLE & TELECOMMUNICATIONS ASSN $11,000
AT&T INC $10,000
UNION PACIFIC CORP $10,000
PFIZER INC $10,000
WINE & SPIRITS WHOLESALERS OF AMERICA $10,000
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,000

[interests]
Other physician specialists $76,785
Pharmaceutical manufacturing $38,752
Telephone utilities $35,000
Retired $33,350
Physicians $33,200
Attorneys & law firms $32,100
Railroads $25,600
Tobacco & tobacco products $23,500
Pharmaceutical wholesale $21,250
Liquor wholesalers $20,500

U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (R-KY6)

[organizations]
RETIRED $37,600
ATTORNEY $19,300
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,500
INTL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS $10,000
NATIONAL ASSN OF REALTORS $10,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
NATIONAL AUTO DEALERS ASSN $10,000
IRONWORKERS UNION $10,000
TEAMSTERS UNION $10,000
FARM CREDIT COUNCIL $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $69,924
Construction unions $49,000
Retired $37,600
Manufacturing unions $30,000
Air transport unions $18,700
Farmers, in general $18,550
Express delivery services $15,499
Restaurants & drinking establishments $15,450
Liquor wholesalers $15,000
Banks & lending institutions $14,900

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY3)
No data yet

TerrierGate

Photos have now surfaced concerning our earlier discussion thanks to the Scottish Terrier and Dog News website.

Pretty funny.

(Okay, I admit the dogs are pretty cute.)

Is This Part Of Their Official Job Duties?

The Hill has this snippet about the apparently added job responsibilities for U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield's (R) congressional staffers:

It was a dog-day afternoon last Wednesday as reporters, photographers and security types cooled their heels outside a Department of Defense briefing in a Rayburn hallway.

First an aide walked by with a Jack Russell terrier on a leash, apparently bringing the pooch back from a little, um, relief outside. “Whose dog?” a reporter asked. “Congressman Whitfield.” That would be Rep. Ed Whitfield’s (R-Ky.) dog, Nigel.

Five minutes later, another aide came in with Bosley, a little black Scottie. Again, “Congressman Whitfield.”

There's your taxpayer money in action...

Fundraising

Last week, we learned that Senator McConnell (R) has raised nearly $6 million for his 2008 re-election.

So, I thought I'd take a look at our other federal officials.

Senator Bunning (R) raised $45,445 during the 1st quarter of 2007, leaving him with a cash balance of $113,607. So far, he's raised $256,527 toward his 2010 re-election.

Here's how the state's U.S. House members are doing:

Member	Q1 2007 Raised	Q1 2007 Spent	Cash-On-Hand
Davis (R-KY4)	$317,479	$144,531	$239,720
Yarmuth (D-KY3)	$303,892	$37,249	$292,695
Chandler (D-KY6)	$140,221	$21,686	$708,648
Lewis (R-KY2)	$110,040	$14,530	$153,072
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$56,950	$52,840	$692,987
Rogers (R-KY5)	$16,000	$46,923	$988,196

Both Davis and Yarmuth are aggressively raising funds for their 2008 re-election, though Davis' campaign finance reports shows he spent about $90,000 in various "Direct Mail Expenses."  I'm a little surprised by Lewis' paltry showing given that he should expect another serious challenge next year.

By the way for comparison, here's where things stood two years ago after the 1st quarter of 2005 filing:

Member	Q1 2005 Raised	Q1 2005 Spent	Cash-On-Hand
Northup (R-KY3)	$385,506	$37,375	$390,321
Davis (R-KY4)	$274,067	$102,895	$283,809
Chandler(D-KY6)	$123,888	$55,160	$240,021
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$96,396	$40,696	$751,123
Lewis (R-KY2)	$16,468	$29,109	$314,770
Rogers (R-KY5)	$11,000	$55,490	$896,489

Not Trend-Setters, That's For Sure

Need an example of how out-of-touch some of our Kentucky Republican congressmen really are?

Well, recall that nearly two months ago, Reps. Ron Lewis (R), Hal Rogers (R) and Ed Whitfield (R) publicly endorsed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R) for president. At the time, most of the polls showed Romney with about 10% in the polls, narrowly behind former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R) for third place.

Yesterday, the latest USA Today/Gallup poll came out and Romney has fallen to 3%, tied with Sen. Sam Brownback (R) for fifth place. The poll was taken March 23-25 of 429 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide (Mar 2-4 results):

Giuliani 31 (44)
McCain 22 (20)
F. Thompson 12 (--)
Gingrich 8 (9)
Brownback 3 (1)
Romney 3 (8)

Not exactly trend-setters, are they?

2007 Congressional Power Rankings

Congress.org just released its 2007 Congressional Power Rankings and Rep. Ben Chandler's (D) move to a majority member of the Appropriations Committee has landed him at the top spot among Kentucky's six House members, even leaping ahead of Rep. Hal Rogers (R):

UPDATE: Just found the previous years' rankings in their respect chambers:

2007 ranking (2006 ranking) (2005 ranking)

McConnell 5 (4)(7)
Bunning 64 (69) (63)

Chandler -- 143 (381) (413)
Rogers -- 194 (14) (20)
Whitfield -- 281 (252) (190)
Yarmuth -- 316 (no previous ranking)
Lewis -- 332 (202) (235)
Davis -- 397 (100) (168)

2006 Congressional Vote Ratings

National Journal just released the 2006 liberal-conservative vote ratings of each member of the U.S. House and Senate.

In Kentucky (2005 rating in italics):

Sen. McConnell (R): 84.3% conservative/15.7% liberal (84.8-15.2)
Sen. Bunning (R): 91.8% conservative/8.2% liberal (89.2-10.8)

Rep. Lewis (R): 87.3% conservative/12.7% liberal (91.2-8.8)
Rep. Whitfield (R): 80.2% conservative/19.8% liberal (73.0-27.0)
Rep. Rogers (R): 79.2% conservative/20.8% liberal (81.8-18.2)
Rep. Davis (R): 76.7% conservative/23/3% liberal (80.7-19.3)
Rep. Northup (R): 72.2% conservative/27.8% liberal (74.7-25.3)
Rep. Chandler (D): 40.7% conservative/59.3% liberal (42.3-57.7)

Noteworthy is that Bunning re-defines wing-nut ranking as the second most conservative Senator, trailing only Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) who scored a 92.5%. In contrast, Orrin Natch (R-UT) scored a 73%, and both Sam Brownback (R-KS) and Rick Santorum (R-PA) a 70.3%. McConnell was the 12th most conservative of his chamber.

On the House side, Chandler was more conservative than 178 members of his caucus and more liberal than just 23 of them. Notably, Chandler was more conservative than Jack Murtha (D-PA)(40%), Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN)(33.7%), and now Ohio Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH)(30.2%).

Finally, Whitfield turned hard wing-nut in 2006, going from 73% conservative in 2005 to 80%.

Republican Gubernatorial Support

Here's the current scorecard of where the top Kentucky Republican leaders stand as far as their support in the gubernatorial primary between Governor Fletcher (R) and former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R):

• Lt. Governor Pence (R):  Endorsed Northup.
• U.S. Senator Bunning (R): Endorsed Northup.
• U.S. Senator McConnell (R): Officially neural, but privately his allies are backing Northup. I'll list him as Lean Northup.
• U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers (R): So far neutral, but given long relationship with Hoover, would seem to lean towards Northup. Lean Northup given their relationship.
• U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R): Being actively courted by Northup. While not showing his cards, I would peg Davis as Lean Northup with likelihood of eventual formal endorsement. 
• U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield (R): No word, but I'd list him as Neutral to Lean Northup.
• U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R): There was chatter that Lewis was going to endorse Fletcher. He's the only federal member that might be foolish enough but nothing confirmed as yet, but I'll list him Lean Fletcher because of the chatter.
• Senate President David Williams (R): I'd put him in the McConnell camp. He probably won't publicly support Northup (certainly not before the end of the General Assembly since most of his caucus supports Fletcher), but he's considered a behind-the-scenes supporter. Lean Northup.
• House Minority Leader Jeff Hoover (R): Northup's running mate.

Not good news for Fletcher. Here's what he had to offer yesterday:

Fletcher said he still has the backing of a large number of supporters, including 24 county judge-executives, most Republicans in the state Senate and a number of Republican mayors.

Considering that Fletcher was the first Republican governor in 32 years, that's about as weak a group of endorsements for a sitting incumbent governor as one could imagine. It's laughable considering what Northup has already obtained in the month she's been in the race.

U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield's (R) Disturbing Comments Concerning Social Security

The Times Leader in Princeton (Caldwell County) published a story yesterday about the town hall meeting that U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) held last weekend.

In the story was this disturbing passage:

As the nation’s baby boomers become retirees and senior citizens, Social Security payouts will soon exceed the program’s revenues.

“We know that in about the year 2014 or 2015, there’s going to be more money going out than coming in,” he said. The government will have to make up the difference, he added, most likely by borrowing funds. 

Assuming this story is accurate, Whitfield's comments about the state of Social Security shows that he is either very ill-informed or utilizing political scare tactics.

First of all, on a smaller point, the Congressional Budget Office in its June 2006 update projects that not until 2019 will expenditures exceed revenues. The 2006 Social Security Trustees' report put that date at 2017. In either case, Whitfield needs to get better data on that threshold.

But what is particularly egregious is Whitfield's assertion that when expenditures exceed revenue (be it 2014, 2017 or 2019) the "government will have to make up the difference...by borrowing funds."

According to the most recent financial data available at the Social Security Administration's own website, the Social Security Trust Fund is sitting on assets of $1.994 trillion.

Yes, trillion.

Not until 2042 (SSA) or 2046 (CBO) would we have to borrow money to "make up the difference." I'm just hoping that the story erroneously reported Whitfield's remarks and that he's not this misinformed or would stoop to political scare tactics when discussing Social Security.

In case you need a primer on how the agency handles its revenue, expenditures and the Trust Fund:

What happens to the taxes that go into the trust funds? Tax income is deposited on a daily basis. That part not immediately needed to pay benefits or administrative expenses is invested by purchasing "special issue" securities. The cash exchanged for the securities goes into the general fund of the Treasury and is indistinguishable from other cash in the general fund.

If all the income is invested, how do benefits get paid each month? Money to cover expenditures (mainly benefit payments) from the trust funds comes from the redemption or sale of securities held by the trust funds. When "special-issue" securities are redeemed, interest is paid. In fact, the principal amount of special issues redeemed, plus the corresponding interest, is just enough to cover an expenditure.

What were the amounts of securities bought and sold during recent years? The amount bought in 2005 was $931.9 billion, while the amount sold was $759.4 billion.