BluegrassReport.org

Denial Sets In For Republicans

I can't help but notice that some of our Republican friends are posting comments this morning that last night's election told us nothing other than the voters dislike Governor Fletcher (R) and that Democrats didn't gain anything last night and that U.S. Senator McConnell (R) is just fine.

No doubt, there was a palpable feeling that Fletcher needed to be ousted, and that surely drove much of the voters' desire. Those are cute talking points, but they fail to address things like this:

1. Why has new voters registering as Republican plummeted since 2005, after reaching parity that year, especially its precipitous drop for five consecutive months heading into yesterday's election?
                     
2. Why are Senator McConnell's (R) favorables and re-elect numbers under that magical 50% mark in most independent polls?
                        
3. Why is Hillary Clinton (D) is outperforming Senator McConnell (R) in Kentucky in hypothetical general election match-up?

And that does even address President Bush's (R) rock-bottom job approval in Kentucky, the fact that Democrats are in full-control of two crucial congressional districts, that Fletcher lost the three Northern Kentucky counties by seven points -- when Republican leadership made clear in recent weeks that NKY would remain a Fletcher strong-hold.

It's understandable that Republicans are going to try to find the silver-lining in last night's results, but it's important to separate fact from fiction and we're already seeing them spin their little fables, hoping the media will report the same.

Kentucky has not magically transformed itself into a blue state, but voters sure seems a lot more willing to embrace Democrats of late, based on their actions at the voting booth, how they are registering to vote, and their attitudes that recent polling has made very clear.

Though, as a Democrat, I sure hope this state of denial lingers for a while...

Yes Kentucky, You Were Punk'd (Part 3)

Here's the third installment of the "What were we thinking?" election of Governor Fletcher (R) in 2003.

This time, I bring you a little diddy from the Republican Governors' Association which spent about $2 million on Fletcher's behalf in attack ads. This one tries to scare Kentucky voters into believing that Ben Chandler (D) would disgrace the state with unethical behavior, even worse than that of Governor Patton (D) since apparently he took "money from Patton's own defense lawyer" [he didn't]. Of course, that was Sheryl Snyder, now one of Fletcher's best buddies, and it was Fletcher who disgraced us with his unethical and illegal conduct.

Frankly, if you substitute "Fletcher" for "Chandler" in this ad, you could pretty much run it as is against Fletcher. So shameful.

Again, please distribute this video far and wide so that we can remind the voters how big of a fraud Fletcher turned out to be...

Republicans Help Raise Senator McConnell's Job Approval To 50%

The latest Survey USA poll just released showed Senator McConnell (R) with a 50% job approval and 43% disapproval.

That's a slight increase from last month's numbers which showed him at 48% approve, 44% disapprove, and McConnell can thank Republicans for the bump as his level of approval among that group rose from 67% in July to 72% this month. There was no effective movement among Democrats or Independents.

Meanwhile, Senator Bunning (R) is well below 50%. Only 41% of Kentuckians approve of his job performance versus 48% who disapprove.

For all the talk that Kentucky loves its Republicans, here's where each currently stands in the eyes of Kentucky voters:

President Bush (R) -- 38% approval
Governor Fletcher (R) -- 40% approval
Senator Bunning (R) -- 41% approval
Senator McConnell (R) -- 50% approval

After seeing these numbers, I was found some old Chandler polling data from the 6th Congressional District during the 2004 congressional special election and it's remarkable how quickly things have changed -- at least as far as Central Kentucky voters go.

Back then, voters had very favorable impressions of Bush (69%, 46% "very favorable"), Fletcher (68%, 41% "very favorable") and McConnell (55%), while 60% thought the country was on the right track versus just 32% who believed it was on the wrong track. And that was among 6th CD voters...

McConnell v. Chandler?

A number of readers have e-mailed me asking about the recent talk by U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (D) that he's not ruled-out a challenge next year to U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) and why I haven't posted about this?

Well...I haven't mentioned it because it ain't gonna happen.

I would love to see Ben challenge Mitch but, unfortunately, his sensible comment that he's not going to rule out a run isn't anything to hang our hats on. I wish there was some meat on that bone, but there's not.

Fletcher Needs 168,000 Democratic Votes This Fall...Assuming 90% Of GOP Voters Back Him

(I wanted to keep this post on-top for a little longer...)

One of things that we all have accepted as truth (especially the media) is that Governor Fletcher (R) managed to receive 125,000 Democratic votes in his 2003 gubernatorial victory.

Turns out that belief is very, very wrong.

Assuming that Fletcher received 90% of all Republican votes (382,865 turned-out) and 50% of independent voters (37,895 turned-out) in 2003, he would have received a staggering 232,797 Democratic votes (667,432 Democrats voted). (Note: Fletcher won by a 596,284 to 487,159 margin).

Of course, Fletcher didn't need that many Democrats to win since he defeated Ben Chandler (D) by a 55-45 margin. However, simply to garner 50% plus one, Fletcher still would have needed 180,570 Democratic votes.

So how many Democrats does Fletcher need to cross the aisle in November to defeat Steve Beshear (D)?

Well, since the 2003 election, the electorate has become more Republican (36.6% now versus 34.9% in 2003). So, assuming that Fletcher manages to receive 90% of the GOP vote and 50% of the independent voters (neither of which seem likely at this point whatsoever) -- and assuming turnout by party is the same as the 2003 general -- Fletcher will need an unimaginable 168,426 registered Democrats to vote for him this November to defeat Beshear by one vote.

So, let's dispense with the notion that Fletcher received 125,000 Democratic votes in 2003 and understand that he received nearly twice that many, and then realize that he'll now need more than 168,000 Democrats (more than 25% of all Dems) to cross the aisle to support him this year just to win by one vote (as will Trey Grayson (R), Stan Lee (R), Linda Greenwell (R), and Melinda Wheeler (R)).

Good luck with that.

Update (9:09 AM): And if you assume that Fletcher will get only 80% of GOP voters (still an ambitious level) in Jefferson County (Northup's base) and Fayette County (Beshear's base), that reduces Fletcher's votes by another 10,100, meaning he'd have to find them among Democrats elsewhere, raising the number of Dems required to crossover to more than 178,000.

Follow The Money

If you're interested in knowing how Kentucky's federal delegation gets its bread buttered, MAPLight.org has an update on the campaign finance breakdown for each of our state's members for the most recently completed cycle.

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $250,047
ATTORNEY $122,100
PHYSICIAN $91,801
FARMER $74,860
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $62,700
SELF-EMPLOYED $42,850
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $41,250
HUMANA INC $38,877
GRIFFIN INDUSTRIES $38,800
PEABODY ENERGY $35,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $390,848
Retired $242,047
Security brokers & investment companies $234,949
Pro-Israel $173,735
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $168,550
Lobbyists & public relations $147,295
Farmers, in general $121,160
Hospitals $121,100
Physicians $115,177
Coal mining $108,600

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $184,175
ATTORNEY $62,770
PHYSICIAN $58,750
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,100
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS $20,000
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $17,050
ASHLAND INC $16,250
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $15,000
FARMER $13,750
RJ REYNOLDS TOBACCO $13,500

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $191,984
Retired $188,875
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $164,199
Security brokers & investment companies $130,243
Other physician specialists $125,800
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $117,949
Lobbyists & public relations $94,516
Physicians $81,750
Pro-Israel $64,900
Life insurance $61,083

U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers (R-KY5)

[organizations]
ATTORNEY $18,000
ADDINGTON ENTERPRISES $17,800
RETIRED $17,450
BEECHFORK PROCESSING $16,000
CONSULTANT $13,850
FIRST NATIONAL BANK $12,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
GEO GROUP $10,000
GENERAL ELECTRIC $10,000
LOCKHEED MARTIN $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $40,700
Engineers - type unknown $28,900
Lobbyists & public relations $25,400
Business services $25,050
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $21,000
Defense areospace contractors $21,000
Civil servant/public employee $20,750
Mining $20,000
Vegetables, fruits & tree nuts $18,900
Retired $17,450

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY4)

[organizations]
RETIRED $191,705
SELF-EMPLOYED $22,882
ATTORNEY $18,900
EMERALD COAL $16,500
INVESTOR $15,050
AMERICAN BANKERS ASSN $15,000
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $14,100
CNG FINANCIAL $12,700
CINTAS CORP $11,600
DRS TECHNOLOGIES $11,200

[interests]
Retired $191,705
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $91,727
Attorneys & law firms $85,900
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $70,550
Credit agencies & finance companies $53,550
Lobbyists & public relations $52,603
Security brokers & investment companies $49,432
Residential construction $41,800
Coal mining $39,050
Mortgage bankers & brokers $37,550

U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R-KY2)

[organizations]
SELF-EMPLOYED $52,607
RETIRED $38,010
PHYSICIAN $24,060
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,350
ATTORNEY $14,800
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $14,499
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $10,250
AMERICAN PHYSICAL THERAPY ASSN $10,000
AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSN $10,000
PINKERTON TOBACCO $10,000

[interests]
General commerce $57,707
Tobacco & tobacco products $46,850
Physicians $41,060
Retired $38,010
Hospitals $36,600
Other physician specialists $33,450
Attorneys & law firms $31,150
Wine & distilled spirits manufacturing $28,077
Lobbyists & public relations $27,494
Accident & health insurance $21,500

U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield (R-KY1)

[organizations]
RETIRED $33,350
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $21,250
PHYSICIAN $21,200
AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP $12,250
NATIONAL CABLE & TELECOMMUNICATIONS ASSN $11,000
AT&T INC $10,000
UNION PACIFIC CORP $10,000
PFIZER INC $10,000
WINE & SPIRITS WHOLESALERS OF AMERICA $10,000
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,000

[interests]
Other physician specialists $76,785
Pharmaceutical manufacturing $38,752
Telephone utilities $35,000
Retired $33,350
Physicians $33,200
Attorneys & law firms $32,100
Railroads $25,600
Tobacco & tobacco products $23,500
Pharmaceutical wholesale $21,250
Liquor wholesalers $20,500

U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (R-KY6)

[organizations]
RETIRED $37,600
ATTORNEY $19,300
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,500
INTL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS $10,000
NATIONAL ASSN OF REALTORS $10,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
NATIONAL AUTO DEALERS ASSN $10,000
IRONWORKERS UNION $10,000
TEAMSTERS UNION $10,000
FARM CREDIT COUNCIL $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $69,924
Construction unions $49,000
Retired $37,600
Manufacturing unions $30,000
Air transport unions $18,700
Farmers, in general $18,550
Express delivery services $15,499
Restaurants & drinking establishments $15,450
Liquor wholesalers $15,000
Banks & lending institutions $14,900

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY3)
No data yet

Role Reversal

One of the things that leaped at me this morning after looking at the gubernatorial results is just how far behind Governor Fletcher (R) starts the general election from 2003 when he was a candidate in a four-way primary.

In 2003, then U.S. Rep. Ernie Fletcher (R) emerged with 57.3% of the Republican vote, defeating his nearest opponent (Rebecca Jackson) by 30 points. Last night, INCUMBENT Governor Fletcher was only able to garner 50.1% in a smaller field, defeating Anne Northup by 14 points.

Meanwhile, in 2003 then Attorney General Ben Chandler (D) emerged from a bruising Democratic primary, defeating Speaker of the House Jody Richards (D) by barely three points. Last night, former Lt. Governor Steve Beshear (D) bested five other opponents, defeating his closest rival (Bruce Lunsford) by 20 points.

The worm has turned in a pretty clear way.

2003: Fletcher On Pardons

It's amazing what you find when you rummage through old files. I just stumbled upon the special 20-page insert that the Paducah Sun published during the 2003 Fancy Farm weekend. In it were dozens of questions that both Ernie Fletcher (R) and Ben Chandler (D) answered including these gems on how each would handle gubernatorial pardons:

It's just remarkable that in 2003 Fletcher argued, "What we need is better discretion...The problem is not with the pardon power, but its uses in recent years."

Where's Ben? Where's Jerry?

Six months ago, all Democratic eyes were fixed on whether the state's two most popular Democrats -- U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (D) and Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson (D) -- would run for governor this year. They both demurred, and disappointed many.

Since then, seven Democrats did join the race, and polls show that its two most baggage-laden, ethically-challenged candidates -- Bruce Lunsford (D) and Steve Henry (D) -- have been leading the pack the entire way.

However, we've not heard a peep from either Chandler or Abramson about this race.

While it's understandable why they would opt not to take sides, it's not acceptable that they've gone into hiding while noticing that the Democratic electorate seems foolishly ready to nominate either Lunsford or Henry and doom our chances in the fall, particularly if Republican manage to get their collective act together and throw Governor Fletcher (R) overboard.

The narrative of this primary season has given us three very unexpected heroes in an effort to deny either Lunsford or Henry the nomination:

• Organized labor has come out in full force (with very few exceptions) to actively campaign against Lunsford;
              
• Former Henry campaign manager Leslie Holland has endured Henry's personal attacks and smears by going public with his law-breaking ways and even filed a complaint against him;
           
• Now Jonathan Miller (D) has dropped-out of the race and supported Steve Beshear (D) in hopes of specifically preventing either Lunsford or Henry from advancing to the general election.

So, where are Chandler and Abramson? When are they going to demonstrate some leadership and match the efforts of organized labor, Holland and Miller? Or are they determined to remain in their safe, comfortable cocoon, to hell with the Democratic Party which looks to them for leadership? Chandler's silence is particularly disappointing given what Lunsford did to him in 2003 with the millions of dollars in bogus attack ads and then the betrayal of endorsing Fletcher in the fall after previously promising to support the Democratic nominee.

It's time for Chandler and Abramson to show some leadership.

It's time they make clear that Democrats must win back the Governor's Mansion in the fall and cannot afford to nominate either Lunsford or Henry. To do so would jeopardize our hopes of winning and would ensure that the Kentucky Democratic Party will be run by the same lackluster, egocentric, and unprincipled bunch of good ol' boys led by Jerry Lundergan.

It's time to step-up, Ben and Jerry. Many of us have sacrificed. When will you? There's only two weeks until the May 22 primary. Don't let us down, again.

Update: Meanwhile, the Courier-Journal offered two editorials this morning on the race -- one praised Miller and his decision to endorse Beshear, the other blasted Henry for deceiving voters that he still practices medicine at U of L. This is the very type of leadership we need from Ben and Jerry in the remaining days.

$3 Million? Give Me A Break

Joe Gerth has an item about the Richards-Brown campaign in today's Courier-Journal:

A couple of weeks ago Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rep. Jody Richards and his chief fundraiser, Larry Townsend, parted company after Townsend donated $1,000 to one of Richards' foes, Bruce Lunsford.

But that was only after Richards had expressed dissatisfaction with Townsend for not coming through with what he had promised.

Townsend had told Richards he would bring in $3 million for his campaign, according to campaign spokeswoman Jennifer Brislin.

He raised substantially less.

While I am sympathetic to Richards' campaign because of Townsend's turncoat behavior, I think it's beyond preposterous that they really believed that Townsend could deliver $3 million.

Jody is a good and decent man but he really lacks a clue when it comes to running state political campaigns. In 2003, he was barely able to raise $750,000 (he added another $70,000 or so in personal contributions) because he couldn't get his arms around fundraising, yet Richards somehow convinced himself that a non-candidate is going to come in and raise $3 million in a seven-way Democratic primary? Consider that Ben Chandler (D) raised $3.08 million in the 2003 primary under the most optimal of circumstances.

Jody has every right to be upset about Townsend's betrayal, but complaining he failed to raise $3 million is lunacy. That noise you hear is a lot of political insiders laughing at Richards for believing such a thing and is a apt microcosm of Richards' problem as a candidate. He's not tethered to the ground when it comes to reasonable expectations.

KY Senate 2008: McConnell 45%, Chandler 44%

DSCC Chair Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) had this to say about some polling done in Kentucky concerning Senator McConnell's (R) 2008 re-election (courtesy of Ditch Mitch):

In a hypothetical heads up race between McConnell and the Democratic candidate Congressman Ben Chandler, the result was a stunning 45% to 44%. In a second question tying the Republican to support for George Bush and the war in Iraq, the race turned into a Democratic 55% to McConnell 42% shocker.

Do I think Chandler is giving any thought to challenging McConnell? No. But this result should certainly get Democrats working to find a candidate to support ASAP. McConnell is clearly vulnerable. But they better act soon, they're already $4.4 million behind...

Fundraising

Last week, we learned that Senator McConnell (R) has raised nearly $6 million for his 2008 re-election.

So, I thought I'd take a look at our other federal officials.

Senator Bunning (R) raised $45,445 during the 1st quarter of 2007, leaving him with a cash balance of $113,607. So far, he's raised $256,527 toward his 2010 re-election.

Here's how the state's U.S. House members are doing:

Member	Q1 2007 Raised	Q1 2007 Spent	Cash-On-Hand
Davis (R-KY4)	$317,479	$144,531	$239,720
Yarmuth (D-KY3)	$303,892	$37,249	$292,695
Chandler (D-KY6)	$140,221	$21,686	$708,648
Lewis (R-KY2)	$110,040	$14,530	$153,072
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$56,950	$52,840	$692,987
Rogers (R-KY5)	$16,000	$46,923	$988,196

Both Davis and Yarmuth are aggressively raising funds for their 2008 re-election, though Davis' campaign finance reports shows he spent about $90,000 in various "Direct Mail Expenses."  I'm a little surprised by Lewis' paltry showing given that he should expect another serious challenge next year.

By the way for comparison, here's where things stood two years ago after the 1st quarter of 2005 filing:

Member	Q1 2005 Raised	Q1 2005 Spent	Cash-On-Hand
Northup (R-KY3)	$385,506	$37,375	$390,321
Davis (R-KY4)	$274,067	$102,895	$283,809
Chandler(D-KY6)	$123,888	$55,160	$240,021
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$96,396	$40,696	$751,123
Lewis (R-KY2)	$16,468	$29,109	$314,770
Rogers (R-KY5)	$11,000	$55,490	$896,489

2007 Congressional Power Rankings

Congress.org just released its 2007 Congressional Power Rankings and Rep. Ben Chandler's (D) move to a majority member of the Appropriations Committee has landed him at the top spot among Kentucky's six House members, even leaping ahead of Rep. Hal Rogers (R):

UPDATE: Just found the previous years' rankings in their respect chambers:

2007 ranking (2006 ranking) (2005 ranking)

McConnell 5 (4)(7)
Bunning 64 (69) (63)

Chandler -- 143 (381) (413)
Rogers -- 194 (14) (20)
Whitfield -- 281 (252) (190)
Yarmuth -- 316 (no previous ranking)
Lewis -- 332 (202) (235)
Davis -- 397 (100) (168)

Veterans and U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (D)

In light of the recent revelations about the deplorable conditions at Walter Reed Army Hospital and at countless VA hospitals across the country, I wanted to give credit to U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (D), who during his 2004 congressional special election made veterans' health care his top issue, and an issue that remains dear to him and his staff. Ben was ahead of the curve in fully understanding how health care for our veterans had become another social issue with plenty of mandates, most of them unfunded or underfunded, and one which we had a moral obligation to fulfill.

During that race, Ben often warned that if we weren't living up to our VA obligations in early 2004, how could we possibly care for the wounded troops returning from Iraq and Afghanistan over the long-term? At that time, American troops had suffered only 10% of the total wounded so far in the war.

With the front-page stories, congressional hearings and blue ribbon commission now underway, I was thinking about how Ben's concerns have sadly played out.

2006 Congressional Vote Ratings

National Journal just released the 2006 liberal-conservative vote ratings of each member of the U.S. House and Senate.

In Kentucky (2005 rating in italics):

Sen. McConnell (R): 84.3% conservative/15.7% liberal (84.8-15.2)
Sen. Bunning (R): 91.8% conservative/8.2% liberal (89.2-10.8)

Rep. Lewis (R): 87.3% conservative/12.7% liberal (91.2-8.8)
Rep. Whitfield (R): 80.2% conservative/19.8% liberal (73.0-27.0)
Rep. Rogers (R): 79.2% conservative/20.8% liberal (81.8-18.2)
Rep. Davis (R): 76.7% conservative/23/3% liberal (80.7-19.3)
Rep. Northup (R): 72.2% conservative/27.8% liberal (74.7-25.3)
Rep. Chandler (D): 40.7% conservative/59.3% liberal (42.3-57.7)

Noteworthy is that Bunning re-defines wing-nut ranking as the second most conservative Senator, trailing only Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) who scored a 92.5%. In contrast, Orrin Natch (R-UT) scored a 73%, and both Sam Brownback (R-KS) and Rick Santorum (R-PA) a 70.3%. McConnell was the 12th most conservative of his chamber.

On the House side, Chandler was more conservative than 178 members of his caucus and more liberal than just 23 of them. Notably, Chandler was more conservative than Jack Murtha (D-PA)(40%), Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN)(33.7%), and now Ohio Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH)(30.2%).

Finally, Whitfield turned hard wing-nut in 2006, going from 73% conservative in 2005 to 80%.

House Passes Employee Free Choice Act

This afternoon, the U.S. House passed one of the more significant pieces of labor law reform in 70 years when it approved by a 241 to 185 vote the Employee Free Choice Act. And like most pieces of popular legislation to help working-class Americans that has passed the House since January, only Rep. Ben Chandler (D) and Rep. John Yarmuth (D) supported the measure among the Kentucky delegation.

AP:

The legislation, also called the card check bill, would certify a union as soon as a majority of workers at a plant signed cards authorizing it. Currently, employers can require elections, overseen by the National Labor Relations Board, on whether a union should be recognized.

The labor rights group American Rights at Work said that, in the run-up to such elections, 80 percent of employers hire union-busting consultants and 90 percent force employees to attend one-on-one anti-union meetings with their supervisors.

The legislation would toughen penalties against employers who violate worker rights during organizing drives and set up a binding arbitration process to prevent companies from thwarting a new union by bargaining in bad faith on an initial contract.

"In many places, when you exercise your right to organize, you get fired, you get intimidated, you get harassed, you get followed home," said Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., chairman of the House Education and Labor Committee.

The AFL-CIO said:

Congress today has recognized that collective bargaining is critical in this democracy as it is in every other democracy around the world. Passage today of the Employee Free Choice Act by the House of Representative is a first step towards restoring the core of the preamble of the National Labor Relations Act passed 70 years ago that commits our government to promote collective bargaining in the workplace, not an endless legal battle with management declaring war on their own employees.

House Passes Resolution Expressing Disapproval For Iraq Escalation

By a 246-182 vote, the U.S. House this afternoon rebuked President Bush (R) over his Iraq escalation with 17 Republican members crossing party lines to support the resolution while 2 Democrats voted no.

Again showing themselves completely out-of-touch with Kentucky voters, all four Republican congressmen voted against the resolution while Reps. Ben Chandler (D) and John Yarmuth (D) backed the resolution.

The actual text of the resolution read:

Disapproving of the decision of the President announced on January 10, 2007, to deploy more than 20,000 additional United States combat troops to Iraq.

Resolved by the House of Representatives (the Senate concurring), That--

(1) Congress and the American people will continue to support and protect the members of the United States Armed Forces who are serving or who have served bravely and honorably in Iraq; and

(2) Congress disapproves of the decision of President George W. Bush announced on January 10, 2007, to deploy more than 20,000 additional United States combat troops to Iraq.

Democrat Owen Sharply Critical Of Sen. McConnell (Alessi, Herald-Leader)

Pardon me while I chuckle at the story below as we've seen this episode one time too many.

Charlie Owen pined to run for the Senate in 2004, but couldn't pull the trigger.

Then he wanted to run for governor in 2007, but was maddeningly incapable of opening-up the gift-wrapped package that Ben Chandler, Brereton Jones and Crit Luallen presented him and eventually failed to file his candidacy papers before yesterday's deadline.

Now he's threatening to take on Senate Minority Leader McConnell (R) in 2008.

How many times do we have to go on this ride? Please excuse me if I don't take it seriously.

Democrat Owen Sharply Critical Of Sen. McConnell
LOUISVILLE MILLIONAIRE DUCKS QUESTION OF 2008 RUN
By Ryan Alessi, Herald-Leader

While opting not to jump in the governor's race yesterday, Democrat Charlie Owen, a Louisville millionaire, instead began lobbing sharp criticism at Republican U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, who is up for re-election next year.

"We need serious people," Owen said. "We should replace our senior senator."

When asked if he will enter the 2008 race against McConnell, Owen said only that "if people in this state want to get serious, they better take note of some of this."

Specifically, Owen said McConnell willingly participated in piling up of a record national debt, while "doing nothing to fix a broken-down health care system" and failing to help the country keep up with growing economies of China and India.

In addition, Owen called McConnell "the staunchest, steadiest, strongest supporter of the president." He noted that a majority of Americans think Bush erred in the handling of the Iraq war.

[...]

"What we in Kentucky should do is say enough of the man who has been the strongest supporter of the president, and a supporter of this governor -- both of whom have put us on the wrong path," Owen said.

An Example Of Lunsford's Problems

Aside from showing himself to being a first-rate quitter and supporter of Republicans like Governor Fletcher, Anne Northup and the Republican Party of Kentucky, Bruce Lunsford (D) is going to have an impossible time trying to avoid an epidemic of rank hypocrisy at every turn.

Let me give you a small, but glaring, example of Lunsford's disingenuous double-talk.

During the 2003 race for governor, Lunsford attacked then Attorney General Ben Chandler (D) from accepting a campaign contribution from Ross Harris, who was under indictment for vote fraud:

In one new ad aired Tuesday, Lunsford's running mate, former federal prosecutor Barbara Edelman, lambastes Chandler for taking campaign contributions from people who were later indicted for vote fraud and for accepting contributions from people who are under investigation by the Attorney General's Office.

...Pikeville lawyer Ross Harris held a fund-raiser for Chandler in December, and was indicted on federal vote-fraud charges in March. Riddle said Chandler returned the money Harris donated after he learned of the indictment. Chandler also returned a $1,000 contribution made by Donnie Newsome, the Knott County judge-executive who was indicted on federal vote-buying charges May 1.

Chandler had received $1,000 from Harris in December 2002 and returned it in 2003.

Of course, now Lunsford has chosen Attorney General Greg Stumbo (D) as his running mate. Here's a view of Stumbo's campaign finance report during the same finance report in 2002:

So, in 2003, Lunsford called Chandler unfit to serve because he took (and returned) $1,000 from Ross Harris.

But in 2007, Lunsford has no problem selecting Greg Stumbo as his running mate, even though he took the same money, at the same time, from the same person he attacked Chandler for, while Stumbo was running for attorney general. (note: unlike Chandler, Stumbo didn't return the money)

And this example pales in comparison to dozens of others...

Chandler: U.S. Less Safe As War Rages (Herald-Leader)

Good story in the Herald-Leader on U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler's (D) skepticism of President Bush's (R) latest set of promises:

"The president continues to talk about protecting our country by securing Iraq, but now he wants to escalate the war in Iraq despite the overwhelming opposition of the American people and many of his own generals," said Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Versailles. "The president has promised a safer America, but his policies are creating a world more dangerous and an America less safe."

[...]

Meanwhile, Bush also outlined a proposal under which families with health insurance would pay no taxes on $15,000 of their income. Single Americans with insurance would pay no taxes on $7,500 of their income. Bush said a family of four making $60,000 a year would see an annual savings of $4,500.

But Chandler expressed doubt, saying the number of uninsured has risen under Bush's tenure to a record 46.5 million people.

"Bush's health-care proposal will do little to help uninsured Americans and will penalize workers lucky enough to have good health insurance policies," he said.

Bush also outlined plans to cut dependence on foreign oil by cutting gasoline consumption by 20 percent in 10 years. He also promised to boost ethanol production and other alternative sources.

But Chandler said Bush has made similar promises before.

"President Bush has promised this country in every State of the Union address that he would decrease our dependence on foreign oil, but six years later we are still at the whim of oil producing countries and face uncertain energy prices," Chandler said.

Kentucky Governor's Race -- The Only Competitive Race In 2007?

As many of you know, the only "national" races this year are the elections for governor in Mississippi, Louisiana and Kentucky.

In Mississippi, barring an unexpected development, it appears that Gov. Haley Barbour (R) will easily be re-elected to a second term.

But yesterday's announcement in Louisiana that U.S. Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) would challenge Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) seems to ensure that Kentucky will be the only competitive race of the three states -- assuming that Governor Fletcher (R) does not manage to win his party's nomination in May.

It was the Louisiana race that many have been watching closely since Governor Blanco has been one of the nation's more unpopular governors. Unlike Governor Fletcher, whose unpopularity was due to his general political ineptitude and legal troubles, Blanco saw her ratings tumble as a result of her handling of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

But what is interesting is how oddly parallel the Louisiana and Kentucky dynamics have developed over the past few years.

In 2003, both states' gubernatorial losers -- Ben Chandler (D) and Bobby Jindal (R) -- found themselves elected to Congress in 2004. By 2005, both governors saw their job approvals plummet and in both instances there was considerable pressure for Chandler and Jindal to seek rematches of their 2003 races, given that private polling showed both men with 25+ point leads over the incumbent governors that defeated them three years prior.

As we know, Chandler decided in December to remain in Congress.

But yesterday, Jindal decided to run and seek a rematch. Yesterday's AP story concerning the announcement confirmed Jindal's enormous lead:

Jindal garnered nearly 59 percent of the vote, compared to Blanco's 35 percent in the survey by Southern Media & Opinion Research. Jindal led in each region of the state in the telephone survey of 600 likely Louisiana voters, which was conducted Jan. 12 through Jan. 14 and a had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

I'm not sure if Blanco will find herself facing a primary fight given the obvious uphill battle she will now fight to keep her job, but barring the likely outcome that she remains the Democratic nominee for governor, it seems that Kentucky might be the only competitive race -- that is if Republicans manage to throw Captain Fletcher off their ship...

UPDATE (11:53 am): A reader just reminded me that Louisiana elections are held in a manner where all the partisans run together and the top two finishers -- regardless of party -- move to a run-off if no one gets more than 50%. So, if another top Democrat were to enter the race, Blanco could finish third, or Jindal might hit 50% on the first round.

House Easily Passes First Piece Of 100-Hour Program -- Anti-Terror Legislation

The House has easily passed, by a 299-128 margin, legislation to implement the 9/11 Commission Recommendations. It was the first vote on the Democratic majority's 100-hour program.

While both U.S. Reps. Ben Chandler (D) and John Yarmuth (D) voted for the resolution, the other four (Republican) members of the Kentucky House delegation voted against it.

It's shameful how truly out-of-touch Hal Rogers, Geoff Davis, Ed Whitfield and Ron Lewis are with their rank partisanship and their votes against implementing the bi-partisan 9/11 Commission. Absurd.

By the way, I'm certain these Bluegrass wingnuts will be happily supporting the Bush Administration's call for an additional 21,500 troops to go into Iraq (17,500 for Baghdad and 4,000 for Anbar Province).

On Bruce Lunsford: Setting The Record Straight

I noticed the Bruce Lunsford apologists were out last night posting comments asserting that it was not true that Jody Richards (D) had taken over second place in the 2003 Democratic gubernatorial primary at the time Lunsford dropped-out of the race four days before the May election.

Well, let me set the record straight and offer that if they can't be honest about things like this, they can't be trusted to do much else.

If you don't know, prior to managing Ben Chandler's general election race against Ernie Fletcher, I managed Richards' primary campaign which lost to Chandler 50% to 47%. One week before the primary, we received our final poll (we didn't have enough money to do any late tracking). It showed that, while the undecideds were large, Richards had pulled ahead of Lunsford by a statistically insignificant margin. Our poll had it Chandler 25%, Richards 16%, Lunsford 15%, undecideds 44%.

On Friday morning, just four days before the primary election, I received a phone call by Scott Anderson (Lunsford's campaign manager) and Ed Hart (one of Lunsford's top guys) advising me that Lunsford would drop-out of the race and endorse Richards later that afternoon and I was invited to come by their headquarters to discuss the planning of the event.

While there, Anderson shared their tracking polls results from earlier that week. I took notes and just found that notebook this morning. Anderson indicated that the "Jeri" ad that Chandler launched against Lunsford has killed them in polling. Not only did it knock-down their own numbers, but it showed Richards picking up all the undecideds in the process. It was a no win for them, Anderson indicated, because a bloodbath just shifted undecideds to us, not them. If they didn't respond, they would surely finish third.

Anderson showed me the results they received on Tuesday morning and Thursday morning (again, Lunsford dropped out on Friday). I believe he said that rather than do a 150 or 200 person daily rolling track, they did full surveys every other day to get a more accurate read.

On Tuesday morning, Lunsford's internal tracking poll showed the race Chandler 32%, Lunsford 23% and Richards 15%, with 30% undecided. But by Thursday, the situation changed dramatically and Lunsford's internals showed him falling into third place: Chandler 34%, Richards 22%, Lunsford 20%, and only 24% undecided-- numbers which essentially matched what our polling had showed.

So, when your read the Lunsford whiners peddle stories that say they would have finished second, know that they either didn't know what their own polling showed or they aren't being truthful. I was there. I saw the polling. I took notes. I still have those notes.

Compare the facts to how Dale Emmons refers to Lunsford's campaign on his own website:

This spring, he was a key player in the near upset campaign of Bruce Lunsford's $8 million long-shot campaign in Kentucky's Democratic Primary election.

"Near upset"? Come on. Under what definition could you use that term when you consider the guy barely broke 20%, fell to third-place, and then dropped out? That's silly talk. 

If Lunsford had trouble cracking 20% of the Democratic primary vote after spending $8 million then, imagine the reaction to him now, after he dropped out of the race, endorsed Fletcher, led one of Fletcher's transition efforts, and gave money to the Republican Party and Anne Northup as recently as this year.

Anyway, just wanted to provide you with some honesty because I know Lunsford won't.

Bruce Lunsford...Again

Let's jump ahead to the problems of another (expected) Democratic gubernatorial candidate: W. Bruce Lunsford.

Word is that Lunsford is likely to again bring a suitcase full of cash ($10 million is rumored) to try to buy this race -- as he tried, and failed miserably, in 2003.

But, I wanted to take this time to debunk a myth that the Lunsford whiners managed to get the media to echo for them since he quit in 2003.

They claimed that the ad that now U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (D) ran against Lunsford in the final weeks of the campaign was so over-the-top, so nasty, so beyond the realm of political campaign ads, that he had to leave the race. Their characterization of the ad was something akin in temperament and style to the race-baiting attack ad that Republicans ran against Senate candidate Harold Ford, Jr. (D) in Tennessee this year.

So, I finally managed to get a copy of that ad and just uploaded on to You Tube for you to decide whether the whining was legit, or whether it was simply, well, whining by a losing campaign who knew they would finish third in the primary (remember that I managed Jody Richards' campaign at the time -- who Lunsford endorsed -- and they showed me their polling):

Looking at this ad again, I laugh at their characterization. Certainly it was devastating, but not because it was over-the-top. It's devastating because it's a powerful story told in a way that clearly showed why Lunsford should be disqualified as a gubernatorial candidate. It was devastating...not cheap or over-the-top.

I look forward to reminiscing about this race a whole lot more if Bruce decides to come back to the Democratic Party side of the political arena (see here, here and here) and run for governor. It'll be a lot of fun...

Chandler Blasts FAA

James Carroll took note of how Rep. Ben Chandler (D) appears to be losing patience with the FAA over air traffic controller staffing in light of the Comair crash in Lexington earlier this year in yesterday's Courier-Journal: