BluegrassReport.org

The GOP Factions (Kos)

I think Kos does an excellent job identifying the four main factions of the modern-day Republican Party:

Corporate Cons

These are Wall Street Republicans, hungry for big federal contracts, less business regulation, increased immigration, happy foreign trading partners, and the protection of the established corporate elite.

Government spending: Pro
Aggressive foreign policy: Against
Immigration: Pro
Traditional values: Irrelevant
Notables: Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Wall Street Journal editorial board

Paleocons

This are the old-school anti-communist, anti-immigrant, John Birch Society types. They loathe foreign entanglements, government spending, affirmative action, and multiculturalism.

Government spending: Against
Aggressive foreign policy: Against
Immigration: Against
Traditional values: Pro
Notables: Ron Paul, Robert Novak, Reagan Democrats

Theocons

This is the Christian Coalition/Moral Majority crowd, desperate for the wedding of state and religion, desperate to prevent the wedding of same sex couples. Unafraid to spend tax dollars on "faith-based" initiatives, while seeing immigrants as a replenishing source of new converts and religious foot soldiers.

Government spending: Pro
Aggressive foreign policy: Against
Immigration: Pro
Traditional values: Pro
Notables: Mike Huckabee, Pat Robertson, James Dobson

Neocons

These are the pointy headed "intellectuals" holed up at think tanks like the Project for a New American Century, moving their little armies around a Risk gameboard. Paranoid of the boogeyman under the bed, they feel secure only when dropping bombs on brown people overseas and are obsessed with keeping others as scared as they themselves feel.

Government spending: Pro
Aggressive foreign policy: Pro
Immigration: Against
Traditional values: Irrelevant
Notables: John McCain, Dick Cheney, Joe Lieberman, the Washington Post editorial board

The Blowhard That Is Damon Thayer (R)

State Sen. Damon Thayer (R) is truly a first-rate blowhard who never lets the facts get in his way when it comes to his painful pontificating on all things political.

Case-in-point: Thayer's latest whining about the lack of reporting by 527 entities like Bluegrass Freedom Fund, which greatly contributed to Governor Fletcher's (R) lopsided ouster last month:

"We need to look at where the money is coming from so the laws governing the 527 accounts mirror those of our political parties as well as individual candidates," said Sen. Damon Thayer, R-Georgetown.

Thayer, who represents southern Kenton County including Independence and Taylor Mill, chairs the Senate State Government Committee, the panel that oversees election finance law.

Thayer said this week he will file legislation that will force 527s to more frequently disclose their contributors and expenditures.

"They need to report just like political parties, just like candidates do during normal election cycles," Thayer said, meaning the 527 groups would have to file campaign finance reports in the months and weeks leading up to an election.

So Thayer says he wants 527s to have to disclose like political parties do?

Well, that's pretty funny since the state's political parties haven't been required to disclose any campaign finance information since June 2007 on either a state or federal level -- and won't have to until next year. Seriously. Either Thayer is clueless or he's completely misleading the public into thinking that political parties file any reports "in the months and weeks leading up to an election" as he bloviates.

A quick check of the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance will show that the Republican Party of Kentucky has not reported any finance data since its June 21, 2007 report, the only reporting for an entire year:

And it's no better on the federal side, as the RPK's last FEC report covered the first six months of 2007, and it was their only reporting period of the year:

So, what in the world is Thayer talking about? The political parties (including the Kentucky Democratic Party) haven't disclosed anything since one month after the primary election. How about changing that law too?

How fun will it be to oust someone as dishonest (or clueless) as Thayer next year?

It would also be nice if the media called Thayer on his bullshit as well. They didn't.

A Brand New Day

Based on Gov.-elect Beshear's (D) early decisions and comments, I think it's safe to say he gets it. The public wants a government that is focused on getting things done and not just taking care of political cronies and they want to keep politics out of the state's Merit System:

Beshear Promises to Toe the Line on Hirings
By Greg Stotelmyer, WTVQ-36

Kentucky's incoming governor says he will respect and follow the merit system. "The spot light will be on us and it should be on us because this is an area that has experienced some abuse," Governor elect Steve Beshear said. Beshear says "politics and the merit system simply do not mix."

[...]

Also today, Beshear announced a web site to accept applications from those who want non-merit jobs. People in those positions help the administration set and implement policy. Beshear says he will not check the party affiliation of applicants or whether they gave to his campaign.

"I don't plan on asking for any kind of blanket resignations of the non-merit people at all," Beshear said of how he will handle the political appointees from the Fletcher administration. "They'll be evaluated on a case by case basis."

So far, so good.

Kentucky's Clear Blue Shift

One of the recent signs that have made more predict that U.S. Sen. McConnell (R) is in for a rougher re-election fight than expected is the fact that President Bush's (R) job approval numbers in Kentucky have plummeted to a disastrously low 35% approve and 65% disapprove.

Indeed, those numbers do suggest that the man who has proudly defended and advanced the Bush agenda ought to be very concerned. But a closer look at those numbers tell an even more problematic story for McConnell.

You see, while Bush is becoming less popular in Kentucky, he's also getting less popular in the other 49 states, so simply using Bush's plunging numbers in Kentucky only tell part of the story. But where things are much more instructive is to see where Bush has dropped more than elsewhere over the past few years.

When you do that, you'll notice that in only one state (New Mexico) has Bush's job performance tumbled more than it has in Kentucky -- among those states which SurveyUSA has been testing monthly since May 2005 -- when you compare the differences in President Bush's net rating (approval minus disapproval):

State	Nov 2007	May 2005	Diff
New Mexico	-35 (32/67)	-4 (46/50)	-31
Kentucky	-27 (35/62)	+2 (49/47)	-29
California	-44 (26/70)	-15 (39/54)	-29
New York	-54 (22/76)	-25 (35/60)	-29
Minnesota	-30 (34/64)	-2 (47/49)	-28
Massachusetts	-54 (22/76)	-26 (35/61)	-28
Virginia	-32 (33/65)	-6 (44/50)	-26
Kansas	-21 (38/59)	+4 (49/45)	-25
Washington	-35 (31/66)	-10 (42/52)	-25
Oregon	-36 (31/67)	-13 (42/55)	-23
Alabama	-16 (41/57)	+6 (50/44)	-22
Wisconsin	-33 (32/65)	-12 (42/54)	-21
Missouri	-28 (35/63)	-10 (42/52)	-18
Iowa	-33 (32/65)	-17 (39/56)	-16
Ohio	-29 (34/63)	-20 (38/58)	-9
AVERAGE	-33.8	-9.9	-23.9

That - along with the plummeting of new Kentucky Republican voters over the past two years and this month's landslide defeat of Governor Fletcher (R) -- really paints a picture that a political realignment is happening here in a noticeable way and these dynamics couldn't be happening to McConnell at a worse time.

Does that lead me to believe that Kentucky is becoming a Democratic state again? No, I wouldn't go that far.

But I do believe these trends tell us that Kentucky is much more politically comparable to the Midwest swing states than it is to the South, which is how the state seemed to behave for much of the past decade, until around 2005 when we began to see a subtle but steady change in the political attitudes of Kentucky voters, leading to John Yarmuth's (D) defeat of Anne Northup (R) in the 3rd congressional district and this year's defeat of Fletcher and plunging approval numbers for McConnell.

This is why McConnell should be even more concerned and why the environment is right for a serious challenge of both U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis' (R) and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield's (R) congressional seat, as well as the take-back of the state Senate.

(Note: While SurveyUSA has conducted monthly Bush approval tracking in the states since May 2005, about a year ago it narrowed its month survey from all 50 states to 15 states, which is why the above chart only lists those states.)

Fletcher Sychophants Urge Non-Merit Workers To "Occupy" New Administration's First Days "Getting Rid Of You"

While Governor Fletcher (R) has publicly pledged the fully support to the incoming Beshear-Mongiardo Administration, some of his sycophants have jumped into their rats holes and are imploring non-merit workers to force the incoming administration to "occupy" their first days having to "getting rid" of them.

Class acts:

To non-merit employees:
Do not resign, even if requested, unless you get an absolutely unbeatable job offer elsewhere. This goes for Cabinet secretaries all the way down to non-merit clerical secretaries. Make Beshear fire you on Dec. 11 after he takes office. That way, you can draw unemployment for awhile and not give him the satisfaction of starting with a clean slate. Make him occupy his first hours and days with the details of getting rid of you. In NASCAR parlance, it's time for you to make your car very wide.

These are the same anonymous whack-jobs who implored fellow Republicans to refuse to support the only two Republicans who actually won on Election Day -- Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) and Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer (R).

Looks like Loony Larry Forgy (R) will have some friends if he decides to challenge U.S. Sen. McConnell (R) next year...

Part 2 -- Fletcher & Crooks -- Like Pigs At The Trough Until The Bitter End

I've gotten some interesting e-mails over the weekend about Friday's post concerning the unapproved election eve black-topping quickly done in Clark County, without even a contract or bidding.

Seems that Clark County wasn't the only place in Kentucky that saw unplanned, unapproved black-topping in the 48 hours before the election.

From a Jessamine County reader:

Mark,

They did the same in Jessamine County the last weekend as well. On Friday before the election, Judge Cassity received a call from the Allen Company telling him they were holding a letter signed by the Secretary to pave some $500,000 in roads. Cassity told them he did not have any contract and that they would be at their own risk. They paved roads on Saturday, Sunday and Monday before Tuesday’s election.

I suspect that when December 11th comes around, there will not even be dust in the cupboard for the Beshear administration and will have a difficult time even keeping the lights on.

And this from a Democratic county judge-executive from a Northern Kentucky county:

It seems as though Gov. Fletcher had funds left over from last year’s discretionary bond fund. Please note last year’s fund. I had learned there was about $7 million unspent and I officially ask for some additional funds. Of course I did not receive these funds, heck I never received a confirmation from the Transportation Cabinet that I had ask for the assistance. This was all apart of Sec. Nighbert’s program of treating everyone fairly, no matter whether you were a D or R. So I feel very safe to say that is where the money came from so quickly. If someone checks they still might find some of this borrowed money still unspent. My county only got $350,000 out of $75 million in bonded funds, but that was clearly due to my support of Beshear and Chandler, 4 years ago.

Crooks to the very end.

Here Comes The Incessant Whining

This State-Journal story might be the single greatest compilation of whining Fletcher sycophants that I've ever read.

Take a deep breath before you read Teresa Barton, John Roach and an ensemble cast of Disciples point the finger at the "liberal media" and blame Fletcher's unspecified "enemies" for his downfall. It's that same recurring theme -- it's never their fault...

Oh yeah, and read this one for a little more Larry Forgy bluster.

Another Conservative Program Rejected -- This Time At The Hands Of Conservative Voters

When we look back at this era of politics, one of the narratives I'm certain we'll be discussing is how so many of the core ideas and beliefs of the conservative ideologues of our time were either rejected, proved to be wrong-headed, or simply disastrous experiments.

Be it their desire for pre-emptive war, denial of the effects of global warming, refusal to embrace universal health care, attempts to legislate morality, efforts to rollback regulations on corporate America, attempts to destroy organized labor, etc, we're seeing how wrong they are on so many critical issues.

Case-in-point: yesterday in Utah -- arguably the most conservative state in the country -- voters overwhelmingly repealed the nation's first universal school voucher law that the Utah legislature had enacted last year:

After a multimillion-dollar political campaign that pitted teachers’ unions nationally against school choice advocates, Utah voters yesterday repealed the nation’s first universal voucher law by an overwhelming margin.

With nearly 97 percent of the votes counted, state election results showed that 62 percent of voters rejected the voucher law narrowly enacted earlier this year, in what was Utah’s first “citizens’ veto” referendum in 30 years.

The level of opposition was much greater in the voting public than in the GOP-controlled legislature, which approved the voucher law by a single vote. Had the law been allowed to take effect, it would have provided all public school students with vouchers ranging from $500 to $3,000 a year, depending on family income.

To opponents of vouchers, the rejection was even more impressive coming from voters in a conservative, Republican state. “Taxpayers, no matter their politics, see vouchers as poor public policy,” Anne L. Bryant, the executive director of the Alexandria, Va.-based National School Boards Association, said in a statement.

America is finally coming to its senses and rejecting the disastrous policies enacted and pushed by the Bush Administration and 12 years of Republican Congress. We saw the first sign of it with the 2006 elections and 2008 isn't shaping-up to be any better for them either.

Is this the return of common sense government that provides for the greatest good and not their narrow interests? I'm crossing my fingers.

The Graying Elephant (And The Spry Donkey)

It's remarkable how four years can completely change a political environment.

Following Governor Fletcher's (R) historic 2003 victory, the general narrative was that Republicans represented young, energetic leadership while Democrats were the old, entrenched dinosaurs who hadn't spent time cultivating its young stars and developing a deep bench ready to run for office.

Following the November 2003 election, that narrative was very true. Back then, Democrats occupied just one congressional seat which was held by then 70-year-old Ken Lucas (D). Meanwhile, then 31-year-old Trey Grayson (R) and 34-year-old Richie Farmer (R) had been elected to statewide office, while 50-year-old Ernie Fletcher (R) was about to sworn-in as governor. The state political parties also mimicked this same age disparity.

Things couldn't be more different with the outcome of this year's election.

Now, the average age of the Republican federal delegation is 63 -- the same age as Steve Beshear (D) -- who is the oldest among Democratic leaders. In fact, only Geoff Davis (R) is under 60 (he's 49). While Republicans were able to retain the 35-year-old Grayson and 38-year-old Farmer, their deep, young bench ready to run for office sure isn't what it used to be.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is more flush with young talent than in memory.

Attorney General-elect Jack Conway (D) is just 38, Lt. Governor-elect Dan Mongiardo (D) and State Treasurer-elect Todd Hollenbach (D) are both 47. U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (D) just turned 48, Auditor Crit Luallen (D) is only 55, and U.S. Rep John Yarmuth (D) is an amazingly youthful 60.

And that's just the current team of Democratic elected officials.

Outgoing State Treasurer (and current KDP Chairman) Jonathan Miller (D), who's poised to play a prominent role in the Beshear administration, just turned 40. State Party Vice-Chair (and probably its next chair) Jennifer Moore is just 33. KDP Chief of Staff Jeremy Horton is 41 (previously Jeremy led the group Change for Kentucky), KDP political director Vince Gabbert is 31, general counsel Kerry Morgan is 38, and treasurer David Tandy is 35.

Given the state of things not long ago for the party, a very impressive and talented crop of young Democrats are now prominently in office, and an equally impressive group has just stepped onto the stage and are themselves poised to run for statewide, federal and local office in the coming cycle or two.

While the face of Kentucky Republican Party continues to gray, Democrats have to be more excited than ever with the deep bench that been assembled.

UPDATE (6:06 PM): A reader reminded me of another young Dem that should be in this group -- Lt. Colonel Andrew Horne, 44. Thanks for catching that. He is most deserving as well.

Denial Sets In For Republicans

I can't help but notice that some of our Republican friends are posting comments this morning that last night's election told us nothing other than the voters dislike Governor Fletcher (R) and that Democrats didn't gain anything last night and that U.S. Senator McConnell (R) is just fine.

No doubt, there was a palpable feeling that Fletcher needed to be ousted, and that surely drove much of the voters' desire. Those are cute talking points, but they fail to address things like this:

1. Why has new voters registering as Republican plummeted since 2005, after reaching parity that year, especially its precipitous drop for five consecutive months heading into yesterday's election?
                     
2. Why are Senator McConnell's (R) favorables and re-elect numbers under that magical 50% mark in most independent polls?
                        
3. Why is Hillary Clinton (D) is outperforming Senator McConnell (R) in Kentucky in hypothetical general election match-up?

And that does even address President Bush's (R) rock-bottom job approval in Kentucky, the fact that Democrats are in full-control of two crucial congressional districts, that Fletcher lost the three Northern Kentucky counties by seven points -- when Republican leadership made clear in recent weeks that NKY would remain a Fletcher strong-hold.

It's understandable that Republicans are going to try to find the silver-lining in last night's results, but it's important to separate fact from fiction and we're already seeing them spin their little fables, hoping the media will report the same.

Kentucky has not magically transformed itself into a blue state, but voters sure seems a lot more willing to embrace Democrats of late, based on their actions at the voting booth, how they are registering to vote, and their attitudes that recent polling has made very clear.

Though, as a Democrat, I sure hope this state of denial lingers for a while...

After A Decade As County Clerk, Bobbie Holsclaw Still Can't Properly Spell "Democratic Party"

A reader writes:

Mark, I just looked at the ballot on the Jefferson County Clerk's website.  Listed are the "Republican party" candidates and the "Democrat party" candidates.  Shouldn't that read "Democratic party"?

Sure enough, see for yourself.

Either Bobbie Holsclaw is simply another petty little Republican who enjoys playing her childish games with official documents, or she hasn't learned how to properly spell the names of one of the two political parties after nearly a decade as county clerk. You decide which is more troubling.

It's a shame that Jefferson County even has a Republican County Clerk...

If you'd like to call Ms. Holsclaw's office about this, the number is (502) 574-5700. (But let's wait until tomorrow to make those calls to her so we don't jam the lines on Election Day).

Well, This Might Explain Who's Paying The Hack

For the past month or so, I've been getting a visitor to BGR several times a day from Rahway, New Jersey who oddly enters via a Republican Party of Kentucky server. Hmmm, that's kind of unusual, isn't it? Sure is.

I recall a certain disgraced and obscene former Fletcher hack, and his son, who are still very active in the current election cycle and are from New Jersey (I think the son still lives there). I guess that tells us how desperate the RPK is these days.

Also, anyone want to bet whether RPK is paying this same hack to execute the illegal robo-calling (and here) that is taking place right now, as there are few people in politics more shady and dishonest than him, nor as dumb and desperate as RPK Chairman Steve Robertson. Chances are these morons left a clue which will allow these calls to be traced-back.

Here's an image of "259th visit" of this particular IP address to BGR which took place earlier today:

(click image for larger version)

Ted Jackson's "End Times" Prophecy Coming True?

The best thing that Governor Fletcher (R) and his dummy, Robbie Rudolph (R), could do in these final days to ensure a strong Democratic turnout tomorrow is to get into the mud and try to scare voters about things that have nothing to do with being governor.

Of course, the voters stopped listening to such Gods, guns and gays apocalypse since the 2004 presidential race, but Fletcher and Crooks don't appear deterred:

"We're taking the message to the voters to show really a stark contrast between our governor and our opponent," said Rudolph, adding Beshear favors abortion rights, gay rights and keeping the 10 Commandments out of public schools and public buildings.

Moreover, I'm seeing some anecdotal evidence that this very tactic may create some blowback that may really hurt Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R). Here's just one of several similar e-mails from readers that I've received this morning:

Have had two people tell me this a.m. that they received Pat Boone calls over the weekend and all it did was convince them to vote the straight D ticket instead of splitting their ballot.  The last minute effort to help the top of the ticket may hurt the bottom.

If Fletcher and Rudolph had a little higher political IQ, I'd wonder whether they intended for such an outcome given that the worst-kept secret in Kentucky is that they hope to bring down both Grayson and Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer (R) along with them, completing Ted Jackson's End Times prophecy of earlier this year when he argued:

"Ernie Fletcher is the David Koresh of Kentucky Republican politics...He's boarded the windows and locked the doors and said, 'Take it from us, we'll burn it to the ground.'"

But then we know that both Fletcher and Rudolph have an elementary school level political IQ (which is probably why they routinely cite a recent elementary school mock election as evidence that the adult-based polls are wrong), so it's hard to imagine they could concoct such a scheme in the first place. Ultimately, this is probably all they could come up with in the final days.

However, once GOP lunatic Marcus Carey began publicly trying to help Fletcher a few months ago, it did dawn on me that The Four Horsemen of Fletcher's Apocalypse had revealed themselves publicly: Larry Forgy, Brett Hall, Brian Goettl, and finally Marcus Carey.

Food for thought...

Simply Shameful

Governor Fletcher (R) continues to sinking to lower and lower depths in his frantic desperation to save his political career. According to the Courier-Journal's Joe Gerth, Fletcher is now using the state Office of Homeland Security as a political hammer to try to scare voters on illegal immigration.

Oh, another robo-call I got recently came from Alecia Webb-Edgington, head of Kentucky's Homeland Security office. She talks about the need to vote for Ernie Fletcher because of his position on illegal immigration.

In the call she uses many of the same lines Fletcher has used when talking about the issue, including that Fletcher won't make Kentucky a "safe-haven" for illegal immigrants.

Pretty sickening. It will be wonderful to get rid of both Fletcher and Webb-Edgington. Shame on her for agreeing to allow what should be a non-political office and position to be used in this manner. It's one thing to have the partisan hacks deliver such a fraudulent message, but coming from the state's Homeland Security director is beyond the pale.

Clearly, Webb-Edgington doesn't have the sensibility to hold such a job.

P.S. -- This is so disturbing that I'm going to be sure the national folks are aware of it.

Trey Grayson Update

Two quick things concerning Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) as we head into the final weekend:

First, I thought Mark Hebert's post about the intensity of GOTV efforts in Louisville is noteworthy since there's only one competitive race on the ballot next week -- the one for Secretary of State:

I've never seen an effort like I'm seeing this year to turn out democratic voters, particularly african-american voters in Jefferson County.

The dems know a big turnout in Louisville could result in a sweep of the statewide offices...

This is a real problem for Grayson because the Kentucky Republican Party has been so feeble during this cycle their efforts won't allow him to balance this Democratic GOTV push elsewhere in the state...because they have no comparable GOTV effort themselves (another reminder that this isn't 2003).

Finally, while I've previously laid-out my thoughts as to why I think it's important for Democrats to defeat Grayson next week, I have been admitted a little restrained in going after him. But Joe Sonka over at Blue Grass Roots published a very revealing item on Wednesday that really made me pause for a moment and ask whether Trey is really the moderate he's portrayed:

The final speaker was Secretary of state Trey Grayson .... In his speech, Grayson articulated reasons as to why John Kerry is not a fit candidate for president. Crowd members were reminded of a recent comment in which Kerry said that “W” stood for “wrong.” Grayson retorted, “Let’s think of all the things ‘F’ stands for.”

“Not only is Kerry a flip-flop, but he’s a failure where Kentucky values are concerned.” The secretary went on to describe how Kerry’s votes and statements have been in favor of gun control, abortion and gay marriage -- three ideological stands that run contrary to the beliefs of most Kentuckians.

“Kerry has authored little successful legislation in his career, and he has failed to articulate his vision for Iraq, for the War on Terror and for America,” said Grayson, echoing the sentiment of most conservative ideologues across the United States.

In response, Sonka offers this very relevant question:

So which one is it Trey? Are you a "moderate" Republican who rejects the extremeism of Stan Lee and Co., or are you another God, Guns, and Gays Republican?

Or does it just depend on what direction the wind is blowing that day?

He raises a very good point.

And The Next Kentucky Republican Party Chair Is....?

Rumors abound that former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R) is being lobbied to consider the position of Kentucky Republican Party chair effective November 10, 2007 which is when the RPK state central committee will again meet following what is widely expected to be one of their worst election cycles in a very long time.

While I believe such a move would be a very strong one for Republicans, allowing them to try to paint the past four years as an aberration and an awful mistake, and allowing the McConnell wing of the party to re-assume full control in anticipation of a competitive 2008 cycle, I'm told by one prominent insider that RPK is much more likely to elect Cathy Bailey, a McConnell loyalist and prominent fundraiser.

The thinking is that there are still too many raw feelings among Republicans following its brutal gubernatorial primary when Northup challenged the politically sickly Governor Fletcher (R), who was nonetheless, and unimaginably, renominated by Republicans in May (which will likely go down as one of the dumbest moves by Republicans in ages). The one issue with Bailey is that she currently serves as ambassador to Latvia and would not be able to start until early 2008.

Meanwhile, my Republican source says we should probably look for one more statewide run from Northup, most likely the 2010 Senate race when U.S. Senator Jim Bunning (R) vacates his seat, or so I'm told.

(Yes, I too thought Bunning said he was running for re-election.)

Fletcher Planning Scorched-Earth Effort Against The Kentucky Republican Establishment For Not Backing Him?

One of the most remarkable things of the past year is the sheer number of prominent Republican insiders who have willingly communicated their frustrations about Governor Fletcher (R) directly to me, allowing BGR to be their vehicle for getting out their viewpoint and dropping interesting insider information on what's going on behind the scenes.

Not surprisingly, that's only increased of late, and I assure you we're not talking about second-level know-nothing local people who are coming forward.

The mosaic that is coming into very clear focus is that:

1. Fletcher doesn't care about anyone on the ticket other than himself;
                      
2. He would be more than happy if Trey Grayson (R) lost his re-election as he never got over Trey's flirting with running against him this year, and;
                     
3. Fletcher appears to be tying sticks of dynamite to key Republican establishments and is prepared to detonate them when he loses, blaming them generally for failing to help him during the Merit scandal and specifically for encouraging and backing Anne Northup's (R) primary challenge, which effectively sealed his general election fate.

Along those lines, I'm told by one top Republican insider that Robbie Rudolph (R), Fletcher's running mate, and Chief of Staff Stan Cave are actively meeting and encouraging Larry Forgy (R) to run in next year's Senate race as an independent. They either know they'd have no chance in a primary challenge, or they simply want to defeat Senator McConnell (R) as revenge for what he's done to Fletcher since the Merit scandal began in May 2005.

And it's hard not to conclude that Fletcher's disgraced, foul-mouthed former mouthpiece, Brett Hall, is ready to assist an independent Forgy bid, given his numerous slams of McConnell and Kentucky Republican Party leadership (before the current B Team came along in June), and his well-known close relationship with Loony Larry.

All this brings me back to Ted Jackson's comment about Fletcher early this year, which seems more true today than ever:

"Ernie Fletcher is the David Koresh of Kentucky Republican politics ... He's boarded the windows and locked the doors and said, 'Take it from us, we'll burn it to the ground.'"

It sure does appear that Fletcher is ready to help bring-down any Republican that failed to help him cover-up his law-breaking and save his political career, and burn down what remains of the Republican Party of Kentucky.

As a Democrat, I couldn't be happier for such fratricide, but even I have a tiny bit of sympathy (just a little) for the talented Kentucky Republicans who worked so hard up to 2003 to create a robust political machine and elect their first governor in 32 years, only to watch one moron, and his incompetent posse, tear down in a few years what took a few decades to fully build. The national climate only added to the disaster, just as the collapsed levees destroyed what the hurricane winds didn't.

Of course, it won't take Kentucky Republicans that long to rebuild, but they'll have to do so without the Governor's Mansion, without their prized 3rd Congressional District seat, with an enormous expansion of the Democratic majority in the state House, with a realistic possibility of losing their state Senate majority, with the possibility that their rising star (Trey Grayson) could lose his seat, with a public that has soured on countless Republican issues, and now with the possibility that Fletcher and his fanatical cronies may try to destroy McConnell's re-election hopes, if he didn't have enough to worry about already.

It's safe to say these are dog days for Kentucky Republicans. The political pendulum sure does wing back and forth, doesn't it?

UPDATE (11:13 AM): No sooner than posting the above did I receive an e-mail from another Republican insider on a related issue concerning this post from yesterday:

Mark,

I don't know if it was your post regarding Northup yesterday that sparked it or, as one of your posters said, the campaign was already in the works . . . but last night I received a phone call from a Republican higher up the party food chain than I.

The caller, knowing I am not a Fletcher fan, was wanting to talk about where we as a party go after his defeat.  Specifically, he was tossing out a few names as potential state party chairs.  He mentioned three names:  Anne Northup, Steve Pence and Jeff Hoover.

As I told him, I think that Pence might be too controversial.  I know many people that were not strong Fletcher people that still didn't like him because they felt he abandoned his duties as Lt. Governor.  I disagree with that but, oh well.  The concept of either Northup or Hoover as party chair was pretty interesting though.

The most interesting part of the call is the fact that the caller's loyalties do not lie with Northup, Hoover or Pence, but with another interested elected official.

Just thought you would be interested in knowing that this rumor may have some legs.

The Contrast Tells The Whole Story

Sometimes it's the small things that truly capture a moment.

Case in point -- check out the Events Calendar on both the Republican Party of Kentucky and Kentucky Democratic Party websites:

RPK:

KDP:

Aside from the sheer volume of events that Democrats are hosting or promoting, it's rather amusing that the Republicans don't even list Election Day on its calendar and instead jump directly to the GOP state central meeting when the current leadership of the RPK will be ousted and replaced with a new team.

This sure ain't 2003.

What Next For Kentucky Republicans?

A Republican reader asks:

Will Ernie Fletcher continue to be a force (albeit a terribly weakened one) in KY Republican politics after election day?  Where will the hardcore Fletcher supporters go?  Will they continue to cling to him like some deposed King or will they slither away and find new candidates to support and get patronage from?  Aside from Larry Forgy, who's not much of a threat, should McConnell be concerned about prominent Fletcher supporters next year?

I can't imagine Fletcher maintaining any public role with a real following after he's booted from office, but the reader raises a real interesting question. How will Kentucky Republicans regroup? Has McConnell become too damaged among a significant portion of his own party to re-gain control of it? Will they resemble Democrats of the past few years with different fiefdoms emerging? How quickly will Republicans clean house at the RPK? 

What do you think?

It's Hard To Imagine It Could Get Worse For Kentucky Republicans...But It Has

Okay, I'm even shocked by this one. I honestly, truly believed that things couldn't get worse for Kentucky Republicans. I was wrong, and I'm frankly a little shocked that the Kentucky media hasn't taken notice.

As you know, I've highlighted the dwindling numbers of new Kentucky voters who are registering as Republicans each of the past few months as Secretary of State Trey Grayson's (R) office releases their monthly data. As of last month's figures, new GOP registration had nearly reached an 11-year low. Despite reaching parity with Democrats in mid-2005, new Kentucky voters registering as Republican had fallen to just 36.1% in August 2007.

Well, September's numbers are in and it got worse for Kentucky Republicans. A lot worse.

• Sep 2007 new voter registrations: Democratic 56.2%, Republican 30.7%
• Aug 2007 new voter registrations: Democratic 50.4%, Republican 36.1%
• Jul 2007 new voter registrations: Democratic 49.8%, Republican 36.8%
• Jun 2007 new voter registrations: Democratic 49.3%, Republican 38.5%

That is not a misprint. If these numbers continue, Kentucky Republicans will report the lowest percentage of new voters in all the time that the state has published monthly motor voter data (1995). Never has the disparity between Democrats and Republicans been larger than 17.6% in any year. Last month's disparity was a mind-boggling 25.5% and, for the first nine months of the year, the disparity stands at 14.2% (51.0 to 36.8), and growing, quickly.

It is simply shocking what Governor Fletcher (R), the Kentucky Republican Party, and the national environment has done to frighten new voters away from the Republican Party in what has been considered a "red state." It might be time to re-evaluate that moniker.

Maybe the media ought to pay a little attention to this remarkable development.

More RPK Desperation And Hypocrisy (UPDATED)

It's bottom-of-the-barrel time for the B Team over at the Kentucky Republican Party. After dumping $600,000 into the nearly empty campaign coffers of Governor Fletcher (R), they're now whining about a Beshear-Mongiardo expenditure to a group called Urban Projects, Inc., accusing Beshear of spending money with a group alleged to have been involved in past voter fraud. Or so they cry.

Of course, maybe the RPK can ask Senator McConnell (R) why the NRSC keeps taking thousands of dollars in donations from folks affiliated with that very group? Or are we not supposed to point out the RPK's rank hypocrisy?

And how many column inches will the Herald-Leader devote to this latest non-story spun by the desperate lightweights at the RPK?

UPDATE (1:00 PM): By the way, as reader notes, that the vote fraud allegations took place in 1994, meaning it even pre-dates the Kentucky Central non-story, if you can believe that. Of course, McConnell's senate committee has been more than happy to take money from the group's people.

UPDATE #2 (4:04 PM): Even better...While the RPK idiots assert "The Republican official said Urban Projects Inc. is company in Philadelphia, Pa., owned by Alexander Talmadge Jr." -- that also seems to be untrue. Click here for the Pennsylvania Department of State website. The entity is owned by Bernard Blair Talmadge.

Desperation is getting pretty bad for the Fletcher backers.

Republicans Continue To Shun Fletcher

It's pretty remarkable how a growing number of prominent Republicans are shunning Governor Fletcher's (R) re-election campaign by either defecting to Steve Beshear (D) or simply refuse to contribute to Fletcher.

Courier-Journal:

Ex-GOP State Lawmakers Say They'll Vote For Beshear
Lile, Casebier cite negative campaign
By Joseph Gerth, The Courier-Journal

Saying they are tired of the "phony issues" that Gov. Ernie Fletcher has raised during his re-election campaign, two longtime Republican officeholders from Louisville endorsed Democrat Steve Beshear yesterday.

The two are former state Sen. Lindy Casebier, who quit last week as Fletcher's executive director of the Office of Arts & Cultural Heritage, and former state Rep. Bill Lile, who retired earlier this year as co-director of the Jefferson County Board of Elections.

[...]

"I was outraged when the governor signed an agreement admitting his role in the merit system scandal and then proceeded to go out and describe everything as a political witch hunt," Lile said. "But this campaign has been the clincher. … Campaigns should be positive -- accomplishments, if any, should be emphasized. Phony issues should not be used to tear down your opponent.

"As a retired public school teacher, I would have to give the Fletcher administration an 'F' in this category."

AP via Pat Crowley:

Fletcher's (campaign finance) report showed that some key GOP leaders, including state GOP Chairman Steve Robertson, hadn't contributed money to his general election campaign. None of Kentucky's four Republican congressmen - Hal Rogers, Ed Whitfield, Ron Lewis and Geoff Davis - were listed as donors on Fletcher's report, nor state Senate President David Williams.

And let's not forget the shunning Fletcher is getting from Lt. Governor Pence (R) and Anne Northup (R).

This is only going to continue as we get closer to Election Day.

UPDATE (10:54 AM): Even more damning for Fletcher:

Fletcher has received donations from less than 10 percent of backers of his chief GOP opponent from the spring, a Herald-Leader analysis shows.