BluegrassReport.org

Survey USA To Show Beshear Surge?

The good folks over at Ditch Mitch appear to have the early data from today's Survey USA poll, indicating that Steve Beshear (D) has greatly benefited from Jonathan Miller's (D) withdrawal and endorsement:

(previous results in parentheses):

• Beshear/Mongiardo -- 32% (23%)
• Lunsford/Stumbo -- 23% (29%)
• Henry/True -- 18% (18%)
• Richards/Brown -- 12% (9%)
• Galbraith/Wireman --6% (5%)
• Undecided -- 9% (7%)

Assuming these numbers are accurate, the other interesting storyline is that despite dumping million of dollars into this race, Bruce Lunsford (D) isn't getting any more traction this year than in 2003 when he peaked at about 25% and then dropped out.

Not only is Lunsford no sure thing for finishing second, but if Beshear continues to gather steam there's an outside chance he'll pierce 40%. Will Lunsford try to go back on his promise and launch attack ads against Beshear in the final week?

Update: Also according to the Ditch Mitch post, Governor Fletcher (R) has lost some ground but continues to lead Anne Northup (R) by ten points.

Update #2 (12:41 pm): Click here for the actual survey results.

Miller-Maze 3PM Press Conference Regarding Their Race For Governor

Jonathan Miller (D) and Irv Maze (D) have scheduled a 3:00 pm press conference this afternoon concerning their race for governor. Steve Beshear (D) is expected to join them.

UPDATE: AP:

"The purpose the press conference is so that Jonathan Miller and (running mate) Irv Maze can endorse Steve Beshear and Daniel Mongiardo's campaign," said Robert Kellar, spokesman for the Beshear campaign.

Miller campaign spokeswoman Carol Andrews confirmed that Miller and Maze would be at the press conference "to discuss who's the best nominee to beat Ernie Fletcher in the fall."

UPDATE #2 (2:05 PM): I'm disappointed in Jonathan's decision to step-aside but I understand it. Democrats would be wise to do everything they can to ensure that Jonathan remains intimately involved in Kentucky politics. While we've been close friends during my 4+ years in Kentucky, I've developed a deeper appreciation for his intelligence, tenacity and ability to understand the challenges facing the next generation. He's a rock-solid individual and I'm disappointed that the Democratic electorate didn't get a chance to better know the best candidate in this race. Fortunately, given that he only turns 40 in July, they'll have other opportunities down the road...hopefully.

However, I don't intend to follow Jonathan's lead in endorsing Beshear. I will remain neutral for the remainder of the primary with the goal of defeating Bruce Lunsford (D) and ensuring he's not the best that Democrats can offer for the fall. But I intend to be aggressive with all the candidates and highlight their record -- the good, the bad and the ugly. I won't be anyone's cheerleader.

Edwin Edwards (D) v. David Duke (R), Redux?

As I'm sure you know, the latest Survey USA poll was released yesterday.

I wanted to vomit.

Not because the numbers for candidates I am rooting for were not as good as other recent surveys I've seen (though certainly that's part of it). Mainly I wanted to vomit out of a profound sadness that Kentucky primary voters are inclined to nominate (runoff notwithstanding) the two biggest pariahs to face each other in the fall (Ernie Fletcher and Bruce Lunsford), setting up a fall campaign that would be tantamount to the 1991 Louisiana Governor's race between the crook, Edwin Edwards (D), and the racist, David Duke (R).

That year, Louisiana voters were faced with such an unimaginable choice between two evils that bumper stickers on cars contained slogans such as "Vote for the Crook. It's Important," and "Vote for the Lizard, not the Wizard." It's amazing to me that the two candidates solidly opposed by the thoughtful core of each political party could possibly be leading with three weeks to go, albeit with percentages of just 29% and 46%, hardly indicators of strong support.

Though, I can't fathom being faced with such a situation this fall because 1) there's no chance that I would consider a vote for Bruce Lunsford in the fall regardless of who the Republican nominate (my party loyalty stops with him), and 2) there's no chance that I could ever cast a vote for someone so incompetent and dishonest as Fletcher, a man who is effectively Judas in Jesus clothing.

(Note: While I feel almost that way about Steve Henry (D), at least I believe, based on his demonstrated history, that Henry is a Democrat. A dishonest, pathological, unethical, manipulative, cheating, thieving Democrat...but a Democrat. Hence, I would vote for Henry over Fletcher...at least. Lunsford isn't a Democrat, he's a political opportunist. His political contributions, his support of Fletcher and other Kentucky Republicans, his long-time friendship with McConnell, his clear anti-union practices over the years, give us every reason to doubt that man has any core political beliefs (just like Fletcher), yet alone Democratic ones.)

So, if Survey USA is accurate, this will likely be the first election in my lifetime where the best choice is to exercise my right not to cast a vote for governor. There are plenty of excellent candidates running down-ballot that I am eager to support, but I will certainly skip the first race if I must choose between two pariahs. There is no "lesser" between the two that I've yet to discern.

So, yes, I was disappointed with Survey USA. While I have some serious qualms with some of its findings (like an unbelievably low 7% undecided among Democrats), I'm saddened more than anything.

As far as candidates go, they should always trust their own pollsters. You don't spend tens of thousands of dollars to do your own research and then throw it away when an independent poll contradicts it. If that was the case, John Yarmuth (D) would have closed-down his shop after the Bluegrass Poll showed him trailing Anne Northup (R) by six points with barely a week to go. Independent polls are very useful in that they help you see trends. They are powerful when they confirm what your poll tells you. But when they vastly depart from your own poll, you don't change course. You keep fighting. You stick to your campaign plan. And then you hope that your next poll doesn't mimic the independent poll. But there are still three weeks to go and we've not even reached Derby yet.

But if Survey USA is to believed, we ought to brush-up on our Edwards v. Duke history and see how Louisianans dealt with it. Ultimately, Edwards won that election but, not unexpectedly, was later convicted on 17 federal criminal counts including racketeering and extortion and is in federal prison until 2011. Meanwhile, David Duke, who also found himself in legal hot water, has most recently been seen in Tehran at a conference held by Iranian President Ahmadinejad questioning the Holocaust, where he told the delegation that gas chambers were not used to kill six million Jews. Louisiana voters were right on the money about these two characters.

God save the Commonwealth...

Steve Henry (D) Loans His Campaign $1 Million

Updates on fundraising figures from Democratic gubernatorial candidates (these are unofficial numbers):

• Steve Henry (D) has reported that he loaned his campaign $1 million on top of the $478,000 he raised from contributors. He's already spent about $1 million on his media buy leaving $500,000 on hand;
        
• Jody Richards (D) reported raising $515,000 and has $332,000 on hand and has not bought media yet;
               
• Bruce Lunsford (D) loaned his campaign $3.5 million on top of $722,000 from his many Republican interests and has already spent about $4 million;
                          
• Jonathan Miller (D) reported $1.01 million raised and has $187,000 on hand after making additional media buys;
                 
• Steve Beshear (D) reported $1.13 million raised and a cash balance of $553,000, but according I'm told $564,000 has just been spent/reserved for the final four weeks of television which took place after the reporting period.

I'll offer an analysis a little later (the only real surprise was Henry's million dollar personal contribution), but it is noteworthy how much more money was raised by Democratic candidates than Republican candidates (not including loans) since January 1 -- approximately $3.5 million compared to about $2.5 million. With an incumbent Republican governor, you wouldn't expect such a disparity.

Republican Lieutenant Governor Debate And The "What If Something Happened" Question

Did anyone watch the Republican lieutenant governor candidates debate on KET last night? I watched the first 30 minutes and it couldn't have been clearer to me that Jeff Hoover (R) is the only one of the three that I would have any faith in being one heartbeat away. While I don't agree often with Hoover on political philosophy, the man knows the issues, has experience and clearly understands state government. He demonstrated that last night.

There was a question that reporter Ronnie Ellis asked Dick Wilson (R) (Billy Harper's (R) running mate), that really made me pause and think for a moment. Apparently, Billy Harper has vowed not to give-up drag racing even if becomes governor and Ellis asked Wilson how he could convince voters that should something happen to a Governor Harper, that he would be capable of taking over the reigns and stepping in as governor since Wilson doesn't have a lick of experience.

Wilson's answer was worthless. He argued that drag racing was safe and I don't recall an answer to Ellis' question. But that made me think about the lieutenant governor role, especially given the recent serious accident of New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, or the sudden death of a sitting governor like Indiana's Frank O'Bannon, or the sudden resignation of New Jersey Governor Jim McGreevy. Who could step in as lieutenant governor and competently take over? Who would you trust, not only to be governor, but who could handle a Hurricane Katrina-like disaster?

On the Republican side, Hoover is the only one I'd have any confidence in. Wilson seems like a nice man who should not be on a major ticket for high office. And Robbie Rudolph is one of the scariest, smarmiest politicians around. He exudes sleaze, dishonesty and pettiness. Everything we've read about him shows his obsession with retaliating against political enemies and not about doing the people's business. He honestly frightens me as possible elected official and someone I would have little confidence in properly, ethically, handling state government.

Thankfully, four of the five major Democratic lieutenant governor candidates are as rock-solid as Hoover as far as having the confidence of stepping in and running the show in an emergency. Regardless of which candidate you support, I think we'd all agree that Irv Maze, Greg Stumbo, Daniel Mongiardo, and John Y. Brown, III are all capable of assuming the office on a moment's notice.

But does anyone feel that way about Renee True? 

Sadly, I think there have too many recent instances where the number two is forced into action and must make crucial decisions immediately. While the gubernatorial candidates will be assessed by the voters, is anyone thinking about whether the LG could handle the job if disaster strikes?

Which lieutenant governor would you trust to deal with a repeat of the The Great Flood of 1937 when 60% of Louisville was under water and without power for weeks? And what if, God-forbid, terrorists managed to sneak a dirty bomb into the Kentucky Derby or among the 800,000 that attend Thunder over Louisville?

Serious, I think we need to think carefully about such scenarios when electing our slates...

The Big Mo' Grabs Miller-Maze -- New Poll Shows Them Tied For 2nd Place

This morning, the Miller-Maze campaign released polling conducted by The Mellman Group of likely Democratic primary voters over four days ending yesterday, and it shows them moving into a second-place tie (click here for poll memo):

Henry 22%
Miller 15%
Lunsford 15%
Beshear 12%
Richards 8%
Galbraith 2%
Hensley 1%
Undecided 26%

The poll also showed that Miller has the lowest unfavorable rating of the group and best fav/unfav ratio, with 39% giving him favorable marks versus just 12% viewing him unfavorably, a ratio of 3.25 (39/12):

Miller (39% favorable -- 12% unfavorable, ratio 3.25)
Henry (53% favorable -- 18% unfavorable, ratio 2.94)
Beshear (44% favorable -- 18% unfavorable, ratio 2.44)
Richards (39% favorable -- 20% unfavorable, ratio 1.95)
Lunsford (41% favorable -- 21% unfavorable, ratio 1.95)

This poll seems to confirm a steady swelling of support for Miller-Maze over the past few weeks. At the time that Miller-Maze went up with its first television ad, they stood at 8% in the Survey USA poll. A little more than a week ago, there were unconfirmed reports that they had climbed to 12%, moving into a tie with Richards. Now it shows they have climbed further to 15%, leap-frogging both Richards and Beshear.

Also, the campaign confirmed that it will report more than $1 million in contributions in its first official campaign finance report to be filed with the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance (KREF) this week. The news of this polling should provide a significant boost to its already strong fundraising performance to date.

While this poll shows that this race is still very fluid and lots can happen with 29 days to go, it's unmistakable that Miller-Maze is the one team right now with significant momentum and there's nothing more important in the final weeks than having wind pushing your sails.

Finally, the horse race numbers were actually the combined numbers from two split samples, as half of the respondents were asked to select among slates and the other half were just asked by gubernatorial candidate. There was not much difference between the two but Miller, Beshear and Richards benefited slightly when their running mates were mentioned:

(with running mate mentioned)
Henry-True 22%
Miller-Maze 15%
Lunsford-Stumbo 15%
Beshear-Mongiardo 13%
Richards-Brown 9%
Galbraith-Wireman 1%
Hensley-Robbins 1%
Undecided 24%

(without running mate mentioned)
Henry 22%
Lunsford 15%
Miller 14%
Beshear 11%
Richards 8%
Galbraith 3%
Hensley 0%
Undecided 27%

Three weeks ago, I assessed the race as objectively as I could, despite my well-known preference for Miller-Maze. Here's what I wrote then about Miller:

Jonathan Miller (D): Jonathan has managed to raise an impressive amount of money despite his low name ID and his consistent 8% standing in the polls and today he launches his media campaign which will now require clear movement in the polls within 2-3 weeks. If he doesn't climb a half-dozen points in the next three weeks and leapfrog at least one opponent (probably Richards), he may never. But polling clearly demonstrates that he's very well-liked among voters who know him and now he's going to have to deliver in communicating his message to Democratic voters. Given that the airwaves are not cluttered right now, I suspect he'll have little trouble achieving an initial bump. The challenge for Miller will be to capitalize on an initial bump into continued strong fundraising and then make a second jump into the runoff. To me, that's the difference between Miller and Beshear. Beshear needs to make one jump. Miller needs two. But Miller is on the air in Week 7 and he's done everything required to be in a position to accomplish that goal. Only short-sighted people would write him off today.

I think Miller has made the first of two needed jumps. Another good piece of news from this poll for Miller is that he's still the least-known of the five major candidates, thus providing them with the best growth potential in the final month. The key will be to translate these encouraging results with an even stronger infusion of fundraising to become better known and garner one of the two spots in the June runoff.

My feeling is that this is a four-way race (Henry, Lunsford, Beshear and Miller), with Richards on the outside looking in, and unless he reports having raised $600k or $700k, I think he's toast because he won't be able to communicate his message sufficiently to leapfrog candidates who are on tv.

This should be an exciting finish...

UPDATE (11:42 AM): The attached poll memo mentions one additional significant item: among the 27% of the respondents who knew all five major candidates, the results were:

Henry 24%
Miller 20%
Lunsford 16%
Beshear 15%
Richards 9%

The key for Miller is fundraising, fundraising, fundraising to ramp-yup his media buy to reach more voters...

Even MORE Lunsford Lunacy

From a story about tonight's debate:

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jonathan Miller accused Lunsford of calling labor leaders "stooges," and of calling U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler of Lexington, the state's only Democratic congressman, "deceitful." Lunsford didn't immediately respond to Miller's criticisms, but a campaign spokesman did.

Lunsford has never called Chandler deceitful, campaign spokesman Adam Bozzi said. And Bozzi said he has no idea where Miller came up with the "stooges" characterization.

Seriously? Are these guys for real?

Exhibit A -- Courier-Journal profile on Lunsford published three days ago:

He said he made a principled stand against negative advertising when he dropped out of the race after Democratic foe Ben Chandler aired the now infamous attack ad in which Louisville's Jeri Stevens said her mother died because she was abused at a "Lunsford nursing home."

Lunsford said it was a "deceitful personal attack"

Exhibit B -- Pol Watchers story on February 22, 2007:

But Stumbo denied ever threatening them and called both men “liars and stooges.”

“They’re just pathetic liars,” Stumbo said.

Apparently, Lunsford's staff likes to emulate him when it comes to truth-telling...

18 Louisville Leaders Back Miller (Steitzer, Courier-Journal)

While the Beshear-Mongiardo camp rollout an old governor looking for political relevance (and casinos) and who in the 11th hour last year didn't have the stomach for another run himself, the Miller-Maze campaign announce the endorsement of 18 prominent Louisville leaders to their team:

18 Louisville Leaders Back Miller
By Stephenie Steitzer, The Courier-Journal

FRANKFORT, Ky. — Eighteen Louisville leaders, including Jefferson County Commonwealth’s Attorney David Stengel and two former members of Congress, endorsed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jonathan Miller this afternoon.

...In addition to Stengel, the endorsements came from Frank Burke Jr., a former congressman and mayor of Louisville; Mike Ward, a former congressman and state representative; Christina Lee Brown, a civic leader; Owsley Brown II, a business leader; Rick Blackwell, president of the Louisville Metro Council; Dan Johnson, Bob Henderson, Madonna Flood, George Unseld, Jim King, Mary Woolridge and Vicky Aubrey Welch, all members of the Metro Council; David Karem, a former state senator and current head of the Waterfront Development Corp.; J. Bruce Miller and Mike Conliffe, former Jefferson County attorneys; Bob Hughes, former state representative and World War II veteran; and Joe Greene, a former Jefferson County sheriff.

The contrast speaks volumes.

Chatter

With all the usual caveats, I wanted to pass along a couple of e-mails that readers sent over the weekend. I can't vouch for the accuracy of either, but I offer them for discussion and any context/background you can provide:

Mark,

Here is a tip for you to follow up on if you can.  Two of the administrators of Fletcher's Facebook entry (Re-elect Ernie Fletcher '07) are non-merit employees working in his communications office -- Dan Bayens and Grant Friedman.  I have noticed several entries that have been posted by these two between the hours of 8:00 am and 4:30 pm Mondays-Fridays.  If posted from their state computers, or even from the Governor's Office on different computers, that is definitely a violation of Executive Branch ethics rules.

                     

Mark - I'm a native Kentuckian living in DC and a huge fan of your site. You keep me plugged into the political scene there.

I saw your post about Mitch this morning and wanted to pass along some confidential info from a good friend who works for an "interest group" that plays both sides of the political fence. They completed some polling in KY a few days ago which showed McConnell potentially vulnerable in 2008, and may explain his torrid fundraising pace. He said Mitch's hard re-elect was just 37% but they did not test specific opponents. But as you wrote, can Dems offer a real opponent? I doubt it.

Mainly the poll tested the governor's race. It showed your boy Miller with a bump but the numbers were not out of whack with the recent polling you've blogged about. They had it Henry 21%, Lunsford 18%, Beshear 16%, Richards/Miller 12%. Not sure about Gatewood or undecideds. 

On the R side, showed Harper stronger than other polls: Fletcher 38%, Northup 32%, Harper 20%. Said Fletcher loses to both Northup and Harper in a runoff so he must crack 40% in May. Is Harper in the race for good? He could be a real spoiler.

Miller-Maze Release 3rd Ad

Miller-Maze is up with their third ad. Another strong one, in my opinion.

Lunsford Poised To Attack Beshear?

One of the loudest rumors out there is that allies of Bruce Lunsford (D) intend to launch a 527 effort against Steve Beshear (D) in the coming weeks. There's no way to know for sure whether it's true but Ronnie Ellis' story of the past hour sure hints at what might lie ahead. We'll found out soon enough whether there's any fire accompanying the smoke:

Bruce Lunsford wants to crack down on the high fees and interest rates charged by payday lenders – and if the millionaire businessman from Louisville is elected governor, he says, he will.

...Lunsford issued a position paper Wednesday and conducted a teleconference with reporters on his four-point plan “to protect homeowners and consumers and crack down on deceptive predatory lending practices.”

...One of Lunsford’s opponents, Beshear, lobbied on behalf of the payday loan industry during one legislative session in 1998, working for the Kentucky Deferred Deposit Association which represents payday lenders. But Lunsford deflected reporters’ questions wondering if his interest in the issue might be tied to Beshear or if internal Lunsford polling indicated Beshear might be a primary threat.

...Pressed about Beshear, he responded: “He’s got to answer about what he does and I’ve got to answer for what I do.”

First of all, I find it amusing that a predator like Lunsford wants to crack down on fellow predators.

Nevertheless, I think an attack on Beshear's lobbying efforts on behalf of the payday loan industry could be very problematic for him. Remember how quickly U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R) scrambled last fall when he was found to be carrying their water? If an attack on Beshear with serious money is real, it could cause some serious damage to him among Democratic primary voters.

Also, given how Lunsford's good buddy, Larry Townsend, unimaginably torpedoed Speaker Jody Richards' (D) campaign with his recent treasonous act, after committing himself to be Richards' finance chairman, and now this, one has to wonder whether Lunsford is instructing his allies to go after his opponents.

When you consider the predicament that Steve Henry (D) is in with his problems, it's not too bad to be Jonathan Miller (D) right now, who continues to demonstrate strong fundraising, some grassroots excitement, and has just launched his second television ad -- which happens to be two more than any of his opponents, except for Lunsford, the multi-millionaire pariah trying to buy this election...

Miller-Maze Launches 2nd Ad

Here's the latest ad from Miller-Maze that is being rotated into the mix in the next day. I think it's damn good. Excellent message and very well done:

Miller, Northup Oppose Alternative Minimum Tax (Steitzer/Sheldon, Courier-Journal)

Both sides of the political divide realize how Governor Fletcher's (R) alternative minimum tax have hurt Kentucky's business climate.

Miller, Northup Oppose Alternative Minimum Tax
Both say they favor its repeal
By Stephenie Steitzer and Sheldon S. Shafer, The Courier-Journal

Two candidates for governor -- a Democrat and a Republican -- said yesterday that they would work to eliminate a controversial tax on business if elected.

State Treasurer Jonathan Miller, a Democrat, and former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup, a Republican, said at separate press conferences that they favor repealing the alternative minimum tax.
   
The tax, which is applied to businesses regardless of whether they make a profit, was part of Gov. Ernie Fletcher's 2005 tax modernization plan.

"To add an alternative minimum calculation on top of a business at its most vulnerable stage is absolutely counterproductive," Northup said in Lexington.

[...]

Miller -- with his running mate, Jefferson County Attorney Irv Maze, by his side in Louisville -- said the state too often has provided incentives in the form of tax abatements, often over 10-year periods, to manufacturers that end up closing or moving to foreign countries.

"We will change that old-school way and target funds to businesses in sectors where growth is really needed," including energy and technology, Miller said.

He said the loss of manufacturing jobs in Western Kentucky especially has been staggering in the past 10 to 15 years.

Miller's plan also includes proposals to pair up community colleges and businesses for workforce training, increase investment in the state's infrastructure, boost university-based research, expand tourism promotion and support family farms.

Calling All Aspiring Film-Makers!

I think this is a cool idea. The Miller-Maze campaign is hosting a contest for people to submit their own 30-second and 60-second ads for their campaign, following the popular viral "A Little More Action" ad that a supporter created and posted on You Tube a few weeks ago:

MILLER-MAZE WANTS YOUR INPUT ON COMMERCIALS
CAMPAIGN LAUNCHES CONTEST

LEXINGTON - The Miller-Maze campaign today launched a contest for the best 30-second and 60-second homemade commercial in support of Jonathan Miller and Irv Maze.

"Since a volunteer created video featuring Elvis Presley and his 'Little Less Conversation' hit, other pieces have shown up on You Tube. We thought we would ask people to unleash their creativity to lend to our cyber-campaign through this contest," said Carol Andrews Communications Director. "Since Jonathan Miller and Irv Maze are both proven problem solvers who believe in less talk and more action, we would like to see what people can come up with around that theme."

Watch the "Action" video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLwyXFOAAuk.

The Miller-Maze campaign encourages anyone to create their own supportive video and to be as inventive as possible. Videos should be issue-driven and no longer than one minute in length.  Appropriate videos will be posted on the Miller-Maze website so everyone can see the originality supporting real change for Kentucky’s future. 

The Miller-Maze team believes technology can be a campaign’s greatest friend so supporters are encouraged to do their part to promote fresh, contemporary campaign tactics and send in their videos.

For questions, comments or submitting videos please email Lauren Price, lauren@miller-maze.com.

Miller-Maze Calls For Repeal Of AMC In Economic Roll-Out

Today, the Miller-Maze campaign rolled-out another detailed policy proposal at a morning press conference, this one focusing on the economy.

Of note, the plan calls for a complete repeal of the Alternative Minimum Calculation:

"The AMC tax sends precisely the wrong message to our small and middle sized businesses and will be repealed under the Miller-Maze Administration. Individual income taxes for businesses must be altered to spur small business growth and encourage venture capital enterprise," Miller said. "Tax dollars in our large cities can be better used to increase infrastructure, while in rural areas tax incentives, specialized loans and breaks will foster small business growth."

Also addressed in the plan:

Local economic development:

"Regional Bluegrass Coalitions should be established and coordinated with representatives of the Economic Development Cabinet, area development districts, local businesses and hospitals, and community colleges. These cooperatives will allow businesses to express their needs, not only to state officials but directly to the community colleges that educate their workforces," he said. "Community colleges will benefit from increased private sector partnerships, more qualified staff, government assistance in the form of tax incentives, and better student funding from private and government sources."

Addressing health care costs for small business:

Reining in healthcare costs so that companies of all sizes can provide coverage to employees and their families is critical. Miller reiterated his goal to provide universal healthcare for Kentuckians in his first term.

"Irv Maze and I will lead the way for a healthy Kentucky by allowing small businesses to enter purchasing alliances, by expanding Medicaid and KCHIP coverage, and by entering multi-state compacts for prescription drug purchasing and other services," Miller said. "And we'll protect the middle class so that those who are covered can afford the coverage and services they need. By eliminating the emergency room as the healthcare provider of choice and ensuring we are all healthier, costs will be contained and help Kentucky be more business friendly."

Expanding Infrastructure:

Kentucky has the cheapest energy costs in the nation but long-term solvency is jeopardized as our infrastructure ages. Miller said the third part of the plan calls for improvements on existing infrastructure to keep up with future demand while establishing Kentucky as the clean energy capital of the world. Miller and Maze offered their clean energy plan in early February.

"If we use our abundant natural resources - our agriculture, timber, water, sun and wind - with technological solutions for true clean coal technologies for zero emissions, we can provide even cheaper energy while protecting our environment. The technology is working or emerging right here in Kentucky," Miller said.

Finally, the campaign asserted: "If we attack this problem from all sides instead of throwing tax incentives down the drain, we will generate new jobs from our existing businesses and attract new jobs from the outside."

UPDATE (11:10 AM): Anne Northup (R) also called for the repeal of the AMC as part of her own economic plan this morning.

Survey USA

Mark Hebert reports that Survey USA will be releasing the second round of numbers in the governor's race this afternoon. Presumably, the poll was taken over the weekend. While there's no reason to believe we'll see any significant movements in the numbers, I am looking forward to the numbers on three candidates: Governor Fletcher (R), Bruce Lunsford (D), and Steve Henry (D).

Both Fletcher and Lunsford have gone on the air with significant buys, so one would expect to see upward movement from both of them since their ads were positive, they weren't competing with any other opponents on the air, and each purchased hefty media buys. The lack of strong movement for either of these two should signal concerns.

Also, Henry has been the subject of a number of tough stories in the Louisville and Lexington media markets concerning his campaign finance controversy, so I'll be looking for any erosion in his support in those areas in particular.

Overall, I don't expect much change in the numbers or the status of the horserace, but there will be a few items that should prove instructive with seven weeks to go.

Recall that the previous Survey USA taken March 3-5 showed:

Democrats
Henry 26%
Beshear 15%
Richards 13%
Miller 8%
Lunsford 7%
Galbraith 6%
Hensley 2%

Republicans
Fletcher 33%
Northup 31%
Harper 13%

Miller-Maze Is On The Air! Campaign Launches First Television Ad

Impressively, the Miller-Maze campaign has just released its first television ad that will be hitting the airwaves in the coming days, making them the only candidates other than the incumbent Republican governor, and the millionaire who is trying to buy this race, to launch its paid media campaign. This certainly redefines the dynamics of this race and confirms the continuing momentum of the slate of State Treasurer Jonathan Miller (D) and Jefferson County Attorney Irv Maze (D).

Admittedly, even I'm impressed that they're able to go up on the air so early. It's a very bullish sign and one that is sure to put enormous pressure on other Democratic candidates to go up themselves, even if they can't afford it, or run the serious risk of being left out of the mix as primary voters -- who continue to be largely undecided -- begin to assess the candidates and make-up the minds about which slate to support.

As a Miller-Maze supporter, this is a fantastic development. Click here for the ad and press release:

Note: I've been waiting more than two hours to post the You Tube video, but something is up with its system as it's still trying to process the video. Frustrating. The campaign is having the same problem, I'm told. Once it does, I'll post it here.

UPDATE (5:55 pm): Associated Press has a story:

Gubernatorial candidate Jonathan Miller released his first commercial Friday, a pitch to Democratic voters scheduled to begin airing statewide next week.

Miller, the state treasurer, does not speak in the 30-second spot in which a narrator tells voters to, "Say no to the same old talk and baggage."

"Not the same old talk, talk and more talk," a narrator says. "Kentucky needs a new generation of leadership built on performance and results, not more baggage and scandal."

UPDATE #2 (Sat, 8:45 AM): Here's the ad:

Hebert Follows-Up On Henry's August 2005 Statement

Mark Hebert noted my earlier finding on Steve Henry (D) and then offered this take:

Henry says it was a legal campaign committee set up to explore whether he should run for U.S. Senate. But as Nickolas (bluegrassreport.org) discovered, Henry's words in 2005 don't appear to match his actions and he may have some serious explaining to do to the Registry. If the Registry concludes that Henry willfully violated Kentucky's campaign finance laws, the likely result wouldn't be a civil penalty and slap on the wrist. It would likely be a referral to a prosecutor for potential criminal action.

Does anyone have any hope that the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance (KREF) will either act against -- or clear -- Henry before Election Day?  Because if they don't act until the summer, and Henry manages to fool the voters on May 22, you can kiss goodbye any hope of taking back the Governor's Mansion, regardless of who the Republicans nominate. If Henry had integrity and cared about the Democratic Party, he'd demand that this matter be expedited, heard and decided before the primary. Yeah, "if".

By the way, I can't count how many Democrats have e-mailed me to say that if either Henry or Bruce Lunsford were to win the nomination -- and if Anne Northup (R) won the GOP nomination -- they'd vote Republican for the first time. Conversely, a good number of Republican readers and friends have said that if Governor Fletcher (R) were to win the nomination -- and if Democrats were to nominate either Jonathan Miller, Jody Richards or Steve Beshear -- they'd cross party lines as well in November.

Makes we wonder whether there's the makings of a bi-partisan idea there.

While there's no way I'd consider voting for a Republican in the fall, I might be willing to pledge that I wouldn't vote for either Henry or Lunsford. Maybe I'd just write-in Ben Chandler.

In politics, actions have consequences, and the actions we've seen from Henry and Lunsford over the past few years, in my opinion, disqualify them both from consideration as the Democratic nominee for governor.

Thoughts?

Change For Kentucky Endorses Miller-Maze

This afternoon, Change for Kentucky endorsed the Jonathan Miller (D) for governor. It was the group's first ever statewide endorsement and a significant one for this very active and committed group of grassroots organizers and supporters in this wide-open primary with such a large block of undecided voters:

Change for Kentucky Supports
Jonathan Miller as Kentucky’s Next Governor

This past Saturday, March 24, a group of 30 Change for Kentucky county organizers, representing 10 CFK/DFA groups, met in Elizabethtown, Kentucky to determine what role our organization would play in the 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial primary.

We poured over candidate questionnaires, mined polling data collected in our CFK Primary Survey, and met individually with six of the seven candidates for the Democratic Primary (in person or via video).

Most importantly, throughout the day we talked--about the future of Kentucky; about the rising tide of pessimism and disappointment people feel about Kentucky politics; about our mission and our responsibility to help change Kentucky from the grassroots up.

At the end of the day, we came to this decision:  Jonathan Miller should be the next Governor of the Commonwealth of Kentucky, and Change for Kentucky will support him in his effort to win the Democratic primary in May.

What we’ve learned, seen and felt over the last month is that Jonathan Miller and his running mate Irv Maze share a remarkable idea of government:  solutions rather than politics, accountability without hedging, morality as the engine of good policy (not a stick with which to beat others).

Our organization was founded to support fiscally responsible and socially progressive candidates. With cradle to college ideas, expanding the Kentucky Children’s Health Insurance Program, ending no-bid contracts, reforming mountain top removal mining, Jonathan Miller respects and believes in those principles; he understands how inherent they are to making Kentucky strong from the inside.

Over the next 56 days, we’ll encourage you to join together to help elect Jonathan Miller. If you are already part of a county group, we’ll ask that you keep working together.  If you are out there alone, we’ll ask you to talk to your neighbors, maybe attend a letter writing party or a house meeting in your area.  If you are part of another progressive organization, we’ll ask that you look at the Miller-Maze platform, and see how their ideas match up with your beliefs and goals.  Together, we can make a difference in what promises to be a close election on May 22.

This is an exciting and new chapter for Change for Kentucky and our DFA affiliates.  It’s another landmark in our progress and growth.  We’ve come a long way so far, and we’ve made a name for ourselves as representatives of a new brand of Kentucky politics.

Change for Kentucky county organizers met this weekend, and we came away believing that Jonathan Miller is the best candidate for Kentucky Governor.  We believe that he will work hard every day, that he will take his job and his responsibility seriously, that he will advocate for our beliefs, and that he will make our vision of Change for Kentucky a destination--not just a saying.

Polls, Polls, Polls

I think polls in crowded primary races before anyone goes on the air to articulate their message are simply a measurement of name ID and are of marginal importance as a predictive tool, particularly when there are more voters in the undecided column than for the first-place candidate.

What we've been seeing in the Democratic presidential race confirms that with the recent ascension of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). As he has become better known, his numbers have followed. The latest USA Today/Gallup poll showed that former U.S. Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) has gone from 9% to 14% in just three weeks, following the widely-publicized disclosure last week that his wife, Elizabeth, has experienced a recurrence of her cancer.

Here in Kentucky, there have been three polls in the Democratic race for governor that have been released: two candidates' own internal polls (Steve Henry released his yesterday, Steve Beshear released his in February) and one independent Survey USA poll.

While all three polls tend to mirror name ID at this stage, I think there are a few minor trends worth noting.

First, I've noticed over the years that internal polls have a tendency to exaggerate that candidate's own support by about two points when compared to other polls taken around the same time. Not sure why that happens, and I don't believe it's an intentional thing, but my experience in managing campaigns tends to show that pattern -- particularly early in races when many candidates are not well-known. But, I've never met a pollster who ever suggested manipulating polling data. It just doesn't happen among the reputable ones. Nevertheless, I usually discount two points off internals as insurance. (Also note that Northup's internal had her tied with Fletcher but Survey USA showed her down two).

As such, let's examine the three polls that have been released:

Poll	Date	Henry	Beshear	Richards	Miller	Lunsford	Other	Undec
Henry (internal)	Mar/19-22	25%	14%	13%	8%	7%	5%	28%
Survey USA	Mar/3-5	26%	15%	13%	8%	7%	8%	24%
Beshear (internal)	Feb/20-22	21%	21%	16%	8%	8%	7%	19%

Let's assume all the data is accurate, except we subtract two points from the candidate in their specific internal poll and add it to the undecided column. Here's how the new table would look:

Poll	Date	Henry	Beshear	Richards	Miller	Lunsford	Other	Undec
Henry (internal)	Mar/19-22	23%	14%	13%	8%	7%	5%	30%
Survey USA	Mar/3-5	26%	15%	13%	8%	7%	8%	24%
Beshear (internal)	Feb/20-22	21%	19%	16%	8%	8%	7%	21%

Here's what I come away with:

• Henry has indeed taken a small hit over the past few weeks because of the negative stories about his campaign finance controversy. The fact that his poll tested 808 likely voters, rather than a typical 600, tells me they oversampled some population sets to get better reads on how they feel about him (by the way, increasing the sample from 600 to 800 only lowers your margin of error from 4% to 3.5%, but greatly increases the cost of the poll), probably because of the controversy. Hard to imagine much upside for Henry since his name ID is already high and there is so much chatter that his problems are far from being over. But if he can weather the numerous storms, he benefits from being best-known. But what happens when voters get to know his opponents as well as they know him?;
                 
• Beshear has taken a steady drop since getting in the race based on these three polls. No doubt he's still in good shape, assuming he's not underperforming in fundraising but his support is not moving in the right direction (even after taking two points off his early poll). I'd speculate that Mongiardo's unfavorable press, coupled with the decision to ride expanded gaming as his foundation issue has caused some erosion. Additionally, there is some anecdotal evidence that Beshear loses some support among voters who are familiar with both him and Miller. However, given Beshear's residual name ID, he's currently well-positioned for a final run;
                       
• Richards too has slid a bit as well and I'd suspect this is about his performance in the General Assembly, where he's received public criticism on some issues like mine safety, minimum wage, and the Boni Bill. Nevertheless, he's also in the thick of things, assuming he can raise enough money to communicate his message. Though, the chatter out there is that he's been underperforming in that category, which -- if true -- will likely be fatal for him;
                       
• Miller has managed to tread water during the past few months, largely because he suffers from the lowest name ID among the five major candidates. This could have been a real problem for him if he was a poor fundraiser or if his fundraising started to dry-up. Obviously, that didn't happen and Miller has done the things necessary for a very competitive stretch run, especially when you consider that seven points separate second through fifth place. Miller has done a good job of getting earned media on a number of policy proposals and continues to attract younger activists and progressives to join him. Given that polling demonstrates that those who know him like him, once he's on the air, you should see his numbers rise, quicking erasing the gap between him, Beshear and Richards;
                  
• Lunsford's numbers should send a troubling message to him. He's actually dropped a point despite the fact that he's been the only candidate on the air with slick, polished 60-second spots. If those ads were providing traction, you certainly would have seen movement in his numbers between the Survey USA and Henry poll. Instead, there's been zero movement, leading a number of us to believe that Lunsford isn't capable of advancing beyond 15% under the best of circumstances and most likely will finish fourth or fifth in the primary. Despite profligate spending, there's no sign that Lunsford has been able to shake the loud background noise that he's not a real Democrat among likely primary voters who are the most knowledgeable of the bunch, and organized labor isn't done with him;

I think this is a four-way race (Henry, Beshear, Richards and Miller) with each of the four with an upside capability of winning the May 22 primary outright (but not getting 40%), as well as a downside possibility that each fail to make the runoff. A friend commented to me yesterday that they expect the race to be so close that the third-place finisher might miss the runoff by a margin of less than one percent. I agree.

What do you think?

Miller-Maze Continue To Flex Strong Fundraising Muscle, Report Raising $818,498 To Date

In an especially bullish sign, the Miller-Maze campaign has just released its voluntary 60-day campaign finance disclosure showing that it has now raised a very strong $818,498 in a crowded Democratic gubernatorial primary field. To date, no other Democratic slate has been willing to be so transparent with its campaign finances. Though, one doesn't have search too far for the reason: no other Democratic slate has raised that much or they'd report it.

While I make no bones about my support of Miller-Maze, they are now well-positioned for a very strong run. The money continues to flow, and the fact that last month was their best month is an even better sign. Henry and Lunsford continue to step on their own landmines. I think we'll see a three-horse race in final month: Miller, Richards and Beshear.

Here's the campaign's press release:

‘A LITTLE LESS TALK, A LITTLE MORE ACTION’

FUNDRAISING STRENGTH, TRANSPARENCY, ACTING INSTEAD OF JUST TALKING -- ALL SET MILLER-MAZE APART FROM THE OTHERS
Campaign's Best Fundraising Month To Date

LEXINGTON – Jonathan Miller and Irv Maze today reported their campaign’s best fundraising month to date as contributors respond positively to their innovative approaches to fixing Kentucky’s old problems. The report came with their second voluntary disclosure since a January commitment to release campaign finance summaries 90 days and 60 days prior to the May 22 primary.

...The Miller-Maze raised $225,467 for the period February 23 through March 23 breaking the campaign’s record for a previous monthly total of $224,469. Of 691 total donors, 83% were in state. Almost $21,500 was in un-itemized contributions of under $100 while about $204,000 was itemized. There are no loans to the campaign reflected in that total. This brings the Miller-Maze total from December 15, 2006 to March 23, 2007 to $818,498...

Next month, all candidates will have to disclose...

UPDATE: Attached here is a spreadsheet of Miller-Maze donors for the month.