BluegrassReport.org

Fletcher Pouts?

Mark Hebert has this interesting item on how Governor Fletcher (R) isn't interested in following the leads of governors before him and doing interviews about his time in office before leaving it:

I did hear some disturbing talk at KET last night that I hope isn't true. Governor Fletcher was invited to the Al Smith affair and didn't attend. I don't know the reason for that. But I also heard that the governor had turned down KET's request for an end-of-the-administration interview with Bill Goodman. If that's true, I hope Fletcher will lick his wounds and reconsider. The purpose of the end-of-the-term interview is to preserve a governor's place in history and get their perspective on their four or eight years in office. There's usually not much news value except when governors who have no future political aspirations open up a little and tell about some of the funny and gut wrenching moments during their terms. Every governor has done the "post game interview" with members of the Frankfort press corps. I hope Fletcher can look to the future and realize he'll regret it if he doesn't do the same.

I suspect Fletcher still blames the media for his loss and isn't willing to sit-down with them any longer.

Either that or he's not interested in explaining what happened to the fat and happy state economy he boasted about just a few weeks ago.

Fletcher's Campaign Admits They Lied About Anti-Gaming Issue

Not that we didn't already know that Governor Fletcher (R) was lying through teeth during the campaign, but it's good to see they acknowledge it.

Here what Fletcher said in the final week of the general election on his flip-flop on the gaming issue:

Bishop, who campaigned with Fletcher in his successful 2003 governor's race and who later accepted a position as mansion director, said the governor couldn't ignore the gambling issue.

"Fletcher believes in his heart that this would not be good for Kentucky," Bishop said, "and he felt it was his responsibility as governor to take a stand."

Fletcher said Bishop is right.

"This is not about strategy," Fletcher said. "I don't think people understand that."

And here's what his campaign told the Herald-Leader in a story that came yesterday as they looked back on the election:

The campaign's first internal poll taken in early June tested possible negative messages about Democratic challenger Steve Beshear -- he favored casinos, once lobbied for the payday loan industry and worked on the liquidation of Kentucky Central Life Insurance Co. The poll respondents were then read a list of Fletcher's accomplishments and were asked to pick between the two candidates.

Even after laying out the best-case scenario for Fletcher, "we still couldn't get over 44 percent," said Marty Ryall, Fletcher's campaign manager.

[...]

What the Fletcher campaign did next was a bit unorthodox and more than a little controversial, especially among some of the governor's staunchest allies. The strategy was to change the subject, specifically to the issue of casinos upon which Beshear proudly built his Democratic primary platform.

"If we could make it a referendum on casinos instead of a referendum on the governor, we might have a chance," Ryall said. "We knew it was a long shot."

...After the campaign's June poll results came back, Fletcher's key advisers agreed on one of their weekly Wednesday conference calls that opposing casinos was the best option because the numbers showed that socially conservative voters might respond to such a message.

Convincing Fletcher, however, was the first task.

"We acknowledged that it was unconventional; it was kind of a Hail Mary," said Bill Kenyon, political director for Fletcher's media consulting firm Strategic Perception, Inc., in a phone interview from his Texas home. "Like most political figures given their preference, he would have rather talked about his achievements. That just wasn't going to put us over the goal line."

Fletcher said last month that he and first lady Glenna Fletcher looked at all the data -- poll numbers and statistics about the effect casinos have on communities --and signed off on the approach.

By late June, Fletcher had altered his public stance on the issue from staying neutral to declaring, "No casinos."

Contrary to Fletcher's assertion more than a week ago that "this is not about strategy" it seems it was all about strategy. Unfortunately, yesterday's Herald-Leader story doesn't point out how brazenly dishonest Fletcher was on this issue.

Lessons Not Learned

John Cheves penned an excellent story in this weekend's Herald-Leader on how Governor Fletcher's (R) attempts to play the "gay card" backfired on him and references, among other things, the Fletcher folks' obsession with San Francisco references.

You'll recall how in the final days how lieutenant governor candidate Robbie Rudolph (R) called the Beshear-Mongiardo "San Francisco treats" and then they sent robo-calls taped by homophobic entertainer Pat Boone warning that under Beshear Kentucky would "become another San Francisco."

Well, despite the failure of their San Francisco obsession to win their side votes, it seems that other Republicans in Kentucky haven't learned any lesson from their losing candidate's strategy. Case-in-point: conservative blogger Jefferson Poole has taken to referring to U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) as:

Representative John Yarmuth (D - KY / San Francisco)

These guys just don't learn their lessons quickly, do they? Though, I suppose Democrats should root that they keep going down this clearly idiotic path...

A Victim Of His Own Political Lunacy (Keeling, Herald-Leader)

Larry Dale Keeling has a terrific column in today's Herald-Leader on Governor Fletcher's (R) downfall. I think he's absolutely spot-on and I really encourage you to read the entire piece.

Here's how Keeling sums it up:

All he accomplished with the variety of tactics he employed over the course of the 18-month investigation was to make himself look desperate to keep the truth hidden. And such desperation creates the perception of guilt.

Simply put, the course of actions Fletcher and his advisers came up with in response to the investigation bordered on political lunacy. Through his own ineptitude and that of his staff, he took what should have been a two-week story and turned it into his personal political obituary.

Amen.

This is a textbook tale of what happens when you give Dumb (Fletcher) and Dumber (his advisers) a little bit of political power.

A Keeper

How painful was it for The Paducah Sun editors to have to put together this front page?

A reader is mailing me a copy for the political scrapbook. It's a keeper, for sure.

Boo Hoo, Ernie

We can thank Bill Bartleman from The Paducah Sun for including this tidbit in his story:

Beshear, a Democrat, appeared upbeat and confident but challenged about 100 supporters at Backwoods BBQ not to take the race for granted and to continue working until the polls close today at 6 p.m.

...Fletcher, meanwhile, met with about a dozen supporters at Barkley Regional Airport and urged them to ignore the polls.

"100 supporters" versus "a dozen supporters" for their separate appearances in Paducah yesterday. That speaks volumes, doesn't it?

But Governor Fletcher (R) never forgets to remind us how his problems are someone else's fault -- never his own:

Fletcher implied that the media polls may be slated to help Beshear.

“The Louisville Courier-Journal has been against me since I ran for governor four years ago and would like nothing more than to see liberal Steve Beshear elected,” Fletcher said.

Pat Crowley noted the same thing about the two candidates' Northern Kentucky appearances last night -- "well over 100" for Beshear, few for Fletcher.

Good riddance...

Make That 13-0

With today's endorsement of Steve Beshear (D) by the University of Kentucky's Kentucky Kernel (another paper that had endorsed Governor Fletcher (R) in 2003), the total tally for newspaper endorsements is Beshear 13, Fletcher 0.

Newspapers Endorsing Steve Beshear (D)

The Courier-Journal (Louisville)
Lexington Herald-Leader
The Enquirer (Cincinnati)
The Kentucky Post (Northern Kentucky)
The News-Enterprise (Hardin County)
The Daily Independent (Ashland)
The Gleaner (Henderson)
The Advocate-Messenger (Danville)
The Winchester Sun
The Kentucky Standard (Bardstown)
LEO (Louisville)
City Beat (Cincinnati)
The Kentucky Kernel (UK, Lexington)

Newspapers Endorsing Governor Fletcher (R)

None.

An incumbent governor can't get a single newspaper endorsement.

Priceless.

I Hope You Took The "Under"

A month ago, I set the over/under line for the number of newspaper endorsements that Governor Fletcher (R) would receive at 1-1/2. At the time, I took the under. Most of those leaving comments thought that was crazy and surely Fletcher -- the incumbent -- would get two or more endorsements.

He got none.

Not one.

Not the Paducah Sun.

Not the Hopkinsville New Era.

Not the Bowling Green Daily News.

Not the Danville Advocate-Messenger.

Not the Owensboro Messenger-Inquirer.

Not the Kentucky Enquirer.

None.

Fletcher likes to offer his phony talking point that his problem with the media is simply with the Courier-Journal and Herald-Leader, yet not one of those who endorsed him in 2003 (nearly all of the above) did so again in 2007.

Not even whack-jobs at the Paducah Sun had the guts to try to fashion an editorial suggesting that our incompetent and corrupt governor deserved another four years.

Amazing.

In Final Days, Not Much Hope Remains For Fletcher (Al Cross)

It's so hard to believe -- given how historic Governor Fletcher's (R) 2003 victory was -- that Al Cross' final column in the Sunday before the 2007 election would be titled:

In final days, not much hope remains for Fletcher

I don't think I've ever been more excited about seeing someone get thrown out of office like the voters appear poised to do with Fletcher. His behavior during this general election has been an eye-opener for many, as he's every bit the out-of-touch, arrogant, hateful, hypocritical, dishonest, holier-than-thou nut that his political beginnings suggested (click here for a quick refresher).

Next up: U.S. Senator McConnell (R), Senate President David Williams (R), and the three Republican state Senate seats needed to take back the majority in 2008. How much fun will it be to maintain a constant focus on these guys for the next year? And how long overdue...

Quote Of The Day

The Courier-Journal's Bob Hill deserves quote-of-the-day honors:

But speaking of losing, it's now fairly obvious that Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher's anti-casino crusade has been about as effective a campaign strategy as was his administration.

More Endorsements

Yesterday, the Associated Press' Joe Biesk penned a story concerning the failure by Governor Fletcher (R) to garner a single endorsement from any of the state's newspapers so far in this election, a topic that we've discussed for some time:

Newspapers Endorse Beshear In Race Against Incumbent Fletcher
By JOE BIESK, Associated Press

FRANKFORT, Ky. -- Kentucky's major newspapers lined up behind Democrat Steve Beshear this fall as an alternative to Gov. Ernie Fletcher, whose term has been hindered by a patronage scandal.

Beshear, a Democrat and former lieutenant governor, picked up endorsements from at least eight newspapers across the state. Fletcher, a Republican, has yet to score an editorial board endorsement.

"Gov. Ernie Fletcher was elected in 2003 on a pledge to 'clean up the mess in Frankfort.' Instead, he created a bigger mess," The Winchester Sun said.

Fletcher spokesman Jason Keller said "liberal editorial boards" did not have the same values as the governor. Keller noted that Fletcher had received endorsements, however, from other organizations such as the Kentucky Right to Life, the National Rifle Association and the Family Foundation.

"These are the organizations that best represent Kentucky's values and recognize the governor's record of accomplishment over the past four years," Keller said.

[...]

Two western Kentucky newspapers, the Messenger-Inquirer in Owensboro and The Paducah Sun, did not make endorsements in this year's governor's race.

Also, we can add The Gleaner (Henderson) and the Winchester Sun to the list of Beshear endorsements.

The tally is now Beshear 11, Fletcher 0.

When was the last time an incumbent was so uniformly rejected across-the-board by the state's newspapers which come from both sides of the political aisle (unlike Fletcher's dishonest comment in the story above)?

Race	Dem Candidate	GOP Candidate
Governor	Kentucky Enquirer Kentucky Post LEO City Beat Courier-Journal Herald-Leader Danville Advocate-Messenger News-Enterprise Daily Independent The Gleaner Winchester Sun	---
Attorney General	Courier-Journal Kentucky Post Herald-Leader LEO Daily Independent Kentucky Enquirer	---
Auditor	Courier-Journal Kentucky Post Kentucky Standard Daily Independent Kentucky Enquirer Herald-Leader	---
Secretary of State	---	Courier-Journal Kentucky Post LEO Herald-Leader Kentucky Standard News-Enterprise Ledger Independent Winchester Sun Kentucky Enquirer
Treasurer	Courier-Journal Kentucky Standard	Winchester Sun
Ag Commissioner	---	LEO Kentucky Standard News-Enterprise Winchester Sun

I'm certain I've missed some endorsements, so please leave a comment with a link or e-mail me at mark@bluegrassreport.org. The latest updates are in green.

(Note: I just revised the tally from 12-0 to 11-0, as I mistakenly counted The Gleaner twice. Sorry).

"The Sound Of Hell Freezing Over In Danville"

Since I've been traveling much of this week, I haven't had a chance to fully update the candidate endorsement chart (I'm working on that right now) but wanted to shine a little light on one endorsement that was published this weekend.

While I fully stand by my original remark that I don't believe newspaper endorsements mean much, please allow me one qualification to that statement: they matter when a newspaper so clearly deviates from its usual editorial philosophical leanings that they endorse the candidate on the other side. One example took place in 2004 when the Courier-Journal endorsed Anne Northup (R) over Tony Miller (D) for the 3rd Congressional District seat. Another took place this weekend:

Editorial Endorsement: Beshear Is The Paper's Choice For Governor
Danville Advocate-Messenger Editorial

Today, this newspaper steps a little outside of what some perceive is its comfort zone. We endorse the Democratic Party's candidate for governor.

Steve Beshear is the best choice in this election.

We do not approach this decision lightly. Until the Republican primary earlier this year, when we endorsed Anne Northup, we professed steadfast and consistent support for Ernie Fletcher in both his elections to Congress and to the office of governor. But this is one of those times when leadership, or the lack thereof, trumps philosophy.

The best measure of a leader is how he deals with crisis, real or political, and Gov. Fletcher has demonstrated less leadership than stubbornness in the greatest political crisis of his career. His response to the merit hiring scandal - which he correctly describes as a "witch hunt" but which also was a test of political acumen - and his subsequent abandonment of his party's long-term interests by staying in this race, have diminished any claims he can make of overall success.

[...]

In his zeal to overcome, Fletcher has found himself stooping to desperate tactics - calling an ill-advised special session to advance his reelection bid; flip-flopping on the casino issue, then misrepresenting Beshear's position on that issue; digging up dirt about the Kentucky Central case and pouring water on it to make mud; questioning his opponent's religious convictions.

Fletcher has attempted to frame this race around the casino proposal, an issue not yet on the ballot and one which the voters would be able to reject as easily as they can reject Fletcher.

That said, Beshear has appropriately and in fairness pointed to Fletcher's indictment and his premature use of the pardon for staff members as reasons enough not to reelect him. He has appropriately described this race as one about leadership.

And Beshear has proven his ability to lead. He served this state admirably as state representative (1974-79), attorney general (1980-84) and as lieutenant governor under Martha Layne Collins (1983-87). As attorney general he attacked the issue of food stamp fraud and enabled consumers seeking justice. As lieutenant governor, he formed the Kentucky Tomorrow Commission, a group that sought to get ahead of our problems.

Beshear bravely took up a controversial issue in this campaign from the start. He stood his ground, and in a fractured field of primary candidates - which everyone thought would produce a runoff election - Beshear managed to bring his party together and win convincingly.

Under the circumstances, we believe Beshear is in the best position to provide the leadership needed to advance the causes in Kentucky that are repeated in election after election.

When and if the Republican Party heals its wounds, maybe we can return to a debate of political philosophy.

But for now, we need a different leader. Steve Beshear is at the ready.

A reader e-mailed me this endorsement over the weekend along with only these eight simple words, "the sound of hell freezing over in Danville."

Indeed.

McConnell Spins Herald-Leader, Says All Is Well

There's a rule of thumb in politics that when an incumbent is polling under 50% for re-election against hypothetical candidates, it should raise red flags that there are serious problems.

Yesterday, the Herald-Leader/WTVQ reported devastating hypothetical general election match-ups for U.S. Senator McConnell (R). It showed him failing to crack 46% in any head-to-heads (among much lesser-known opponents), and was ahead of Auditor Crit Luallen (D) and U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (D) -- by a mere five points (45-40 and 46-41, respectively).

Disappointingly, the Herald-Leader allowed McConnell to spin these results as good news and even offered themselves up to publish McConnell's own self-reported internal polling which shows him to be a beloved figure -- contrary to the independent polls which clearly shows more than half of Kentucky is not approving of his job.

Recently, McConnell told the media that part of his re-election strategy will be to tie his Democratic opponent to what he presumes will be presidential nominee Hillary Clinton (D). But that raises an issue that the media might considering asking him (God-forbid we ask them to do too much) -- simply, according to last week's statewide polling about the 2008 presidential race, Hillary Clinton (D) leads Rudy Giuliani (R) by a 47 percent to 45 percent margin in Kentucky.

So here's the question for the good senator -- why is Hillary Clinton out-performing you in your own state?

In fact, Clinton leads Romney by a 50-41 margin and Huckabee by a 49-39 margin, again, in Kentucky. The only candidates that beat her, in Kentucky, are Thompson (47-45) and McCain (49-45). So, Clinton fails to fall below 45% in any general election match-up in Kentucky just like McConnell.

Hmmm. While McConnell might be able to adeptly spin the Herald-Leader, these numbers are a very, very bad sign for him, as Hillary Clinton is out-performing our senior senator in his own state...

How Bad Is It?

So, just how bad are Governor Fletcher's (R) re-election prospects?

"He should spend the last two weeks packing and saying his goodbyes," said Richard Fording, associate professor of political science at the University of Kentucky. "That would be the best use of his time."

[...]

"Not only do they not like the job he's done, they don't like him. When that happens, you're done," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000.

What does the Fletcher campaign say about this?

"Gov. Fletcher is campaigning hard and we believe we'll see this race tighten as we move into November," said spokesman Jason Keller.

..."I think we've got the mo (campaign jargon for momentum)" said Keller, Fletcher's spokesman, noting that crowds at stops on Fletcher's "Victory 2007" tour have been larger than those in 2003.

Good luck with that...

Here Comes The Bandwagon, And It's Gonna Get Crowded...

Pat Crowley nailed it in his Sunday column:

The signs for a Fletcher defeat are everywhere. His fund-raising, even in a GOP stalwart like Kenton County, is down. He trails Beshear among church-goers and 4th District voters. He probably doesn't have the money to run all the ads he needs.

And in a sure sign of political apocalypse, here come the band-wagon jumpers. A couple of GOP lobbyists called me on the sly this week, moaning about getting ready for a changing of the guard in Frankfort.

Former Fletcher backers like developer Jerry Carroll - using horse-racing metaphors to introduce Beshear at a Friday night Turfway Park rally - and John Stephenson - belting out "My Old Kentucky Home" to Democratic campaign volunteers as they rolled into Covington Friday - are lining up to get board with the winner.

Sounds like a smart move.

This is precisely the dynamic (see here and here too) that will cause the final margin to grow to more than 20 points on November 6th.

Courier-Journal: McConnell "Deliberately Untruthful"

Seems that Senator McConnell (R) shares one major similarity with Governor Fletcher (R): both have real problems with the truth.

Today's Courier-Journal editorial whacks McConnell for his office's attempt to smear a 12-year-old boy who came forward (along with his family) to publicly support the recent SCHIP legislation that Congress overwhelmingly passed -- and then shamefully lie about it:

McConnell Versus Truth
Courier-Journal Editorial

...Sen. McConnell was deliberately untruthful the next day, when he told WHAS-TV's Mark Hebert, "There was no involvement whatsoever." The senator will object to any suggestion of lying, but what else is it when you knowingly misrepresent facts?

It's clear what Mitch McConnell knew and when he knew it. It's clear he deceived the public when he answered Mr. Hebert as he did about the e-mail sent by his press agent.

Mr. McConnell is so used to Washington-style gamesmanship and inside-the-beltway rules that he has forgotten what constituents back in Kentucky want: the simple truth.

The Herald-Leader also took McConnell task in its editorial on the subject.

One final note: I get a good deal of e-mail asking why I'm not spending more time exposing some of McConnell's shameful episodes and comments of late. Simply, I'm trying to keep my focus and energy on the November 6th election. There will be plenty of time to spotlight the abject failures of McConnell's leadership after that, but I try to keep the focus on the election before us. Besides, BlueGrassRoots and Ditch Mitch are doing more than an adequate job covering McConnell's idiocies.

Crowley: Fletcher's Fundraising Plummets In NKY's Kenton County

This might be the single most revealing story about the state of the gubernatorial race -- just how poorly Governor Fletcher's (R) fundraising has been in Northern Kentucky's Kenton County compared to 2003, long considered a Fletcher stronghold:

Fletcher's Fundraising Falls
Down $77,000 in Kenton from '03
By Patrick Crowley, Kentucky Enquirer

...According to the campaign finance report that Fletcher filed last week with the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance, he raised $108,075 in Kenton County between the May primary and the first week of October.

Records show that during the same period four years ago, Fletcher raised $185,530.

[...]

Koenig also acknowledged that polling in the governor's race - which has consistently shown Fletcher with double-digit deficits - likely suppressed fundraising.

Four years ago, Fletcher raised $127,975 in the heavily GOP suburbs on and near Dixie Highway, including Fort Mitchell, Crescent Springs, Crestview Hills, Villa Hills, Lakeside Park and Edgewood.

This year, that figure dropped to $71,475.

Edgewood lawyer Mark Guilfoyle, a Democrat advising Beshear's campaign, attributed the drop to two major factors.

Kenton Countians were angered at Fletcher's "shabby" treatment of Dick Murgatroyd, the former Kenton Judge-executive and a beloved figure in the GOP, Guilfoyle said.

Murgatroyd was one of the state officials charged with misdemeanor crimes in the investigation into the Fletcher administration's hiring practices. Fletcher pardoned Murgatroyd, then fired him.

Guilfoyle also speculated that Fletcher lost financial support after U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning, a GOP icon in Northern Kentucky, backed Fletcher's opponent, former Louisville Congresswoman Anne Northup, in the primary.

[...]

Beshear trailed Fletcher in overall Kenton County fundraising by about $10,000. The Democrat raised $98,275, his campaign finance report shows.

Danville Advocate-Messenger's Brock Takes Fletcher to Woodshed

Herb Brock doesn't mince words in his Danville Advocate-Messenger political column when it comes to the phony double-talk and flip-flopping coming from the desperate mouth of the great one-termer, Governor Fletcher (R):

These commercials would be even more effective if we believed our Republican governor is sincere. But that's a difficult conclusion to reach. The reason for the believability problem is the fact that, until just a few months ago when the campaign season started and it was clear his Democratic opponent, Steve Beshear, was going to make casino gambling a big item in his platform, Fletcher said he favored putting the matter on the ballot and letting voters decide if they wanted to legalize casinos.

While Fletcher didn't state whether he would vote for or against casinos if the issue were on the ballot, he certainly never made any statements that would come close to the moral outrage and indignation that mark his current anti-casino campaign.

There's quite a bit of separation from his kind laid-back, laissez-faire original position of letting Kentuckians make the decision whether there is casino gambling to his new hell-fire and brimstone position that has him playing an angry, Ten Commandments-toting Moses atop a mountain and casting verbal stones down on his fellow Jews as they engaged in depravity and debauchery while he was trying to lead them to the promised land.

Is this the same Moses who can't wait to get face time on the first Saturday in May on a national network at the end of the Kentucky Derby so he can promote horse-racing which, oh, by the way, generates millions of dollars in bets on Derby Day alone? Maybe that tablet he's carrying around is a stone version of the Racing Form.

The governor's transition from a mouse to a Moses on the subject of casino gambling clearly is a political conversion - a deathbed conversion given what polls indicate are slim chances his slick advertising campaign will pay off - notwithstanding the fact that Fletcher is an ordained Baptist minister.

Can I get an "amen"?

Fletcher Failed To Tar Beshear (Crowley, Kentucky Enquirer)

The best political story/column of the weekend, by far, was Pat Crowley's. It's a must-read, but here are a few excerpts:

Fletcher Failed To Tar Beshear
Pat Crowley, Kentucky Enquirer

The scandal-plagued governor is looking for a scandal.

Republican Ernie Fletcher, the GOP infrastructure and legions of his supporters have spent the past week trying to get smoke out of the smokeless gun that turned out to be the Kentucky Central Insurance scandal.

What was billed by party operatives as "Kentucky's Enron" was anything but.

...But when all was said and done, there was nothing there.

Even the Lexington Herald-Leader, which broke many of the stories and led the coverage, editorialized that Fletcher's claim that Beshear brought the company down was ludicrous.

"Politicians are given a good bit of latitude to exaggerate in their advertising," the paper opined. "But Fletcher's insistence that Beshear did in Kentucky Central speaks ill of the governor's grasp on reality."

[...]

Fletcher continues to be dogged by his scandal, the hiring investigation where cronies were given jobs over more qualified applicants.

Did the Dems do the same darn thing during their days in charge? Yep.

But Fletcher's dilemma came from pardons, indictments and his own decision to take the Fifth and cut a deal with prosecutors. He should have fired those involved, pardoned no one, vigorously admitted mistakes and just as forcefully showed how he cleaned house.

[...]

Fletcher made much of his own bed with how he handled the hiring scandal. He tried to lay the same rap on Beshear, but it's just not sticking.

Fletcher's Fundraising Problems

Joe Gerth takes a look under the gubernatorial fundraising numbers and shows us the depth of Governor Fletcher's (R) money woes with just 22 days to go:

If you don't count the $600,000 that the Republican Party of Kentucky gave Fletcher on Oct. 5 -- what appears to be an effort to boost his cash on hand above $1 million -- Fletcher reached his high-water mark for individual fundraising in August when he raised $871,625.

Beshear, on the other hand, raised more money than Fletcher in every month since the May 23 primary. And Beshear's most productive fundraising month was September, when he brought in $1.6 million -- nearly twice what Fletcher raised in his best month.

October looks as if it could be even better for the Democratic side. Although only the first week of October is included in the report, Beshear reported raising $1.2 million.

Again, when was the last time you can remember a Democratic challenger so thoroughly trouncing a Republican incumbent in fundraising for an office of this magnitude? I can't think of one instance...

Washington Post On KY Governor's Race: "Looks Like It's Over," Calls Fletcher "Dead Man Walking"

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has just put out his updated analysis of the five most vulnerable gubernatorial incumbents for the 2007 and 2008 cycle. Kentucky remains #1:

1. Kentucky: It's never over until it's over but this one sure looks like it's over. Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) spent his first term beset by ethical questions and, despite a brief revival to win a contested Republican primary, looks like a dead man walking at the moment. A mid-September poll conducted for the Louisville Courier Journal showed former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear (D) 20 points ahead of Fletcher; our conversations with insiders on both sides suggest that number is about right. Fletcher has tried a number of attacks on Beshear -- alleging that Beshear "supports" casino gambling, that he engaged in unethical practices in relation to the collapse of Kentucky Central Life Co. -- but they simply haven't caught on. Voters made up their minds about Fletcher a while ago and Beshear is in the right place at the right time. (Previous ranking: 1)

Another Example Of The Media's "False Balance" Problem

One of the things about the traditional/mainstream media that I am most critical of is the repeated attempts to create "balance" in their stories where none really exists. It's an attempt to bend-over backwards to demonstrate their supposed objectivity. Unfortunately, this too often creates an equally problematic "false balance" in their reporting.

While this is not an egregious example of false balance, the following AP story nonetheless falls into the category:

Vote 2007: Doctors Back Fletcher; Lawyers Back Beshear
Associated Press

Doctors and lawyers are backing their former colleagues - Gov. Ernie Fletcher, the physician, and Steve Beshear, the attorney - in this year's governor's race, according to campaign finance records filed with the state.

Okay, got the gist of the story?  Doctors are falling into the Fletcher camp, while lawyers are falling into the Beshear camp.

Now let's scroll to paragraph five of the story:

Of those totals, Beshear collected more than $705,000 from 1,154 attorneys and almost $60,000 from 132 doctors who contributed to his campaign. Fletcher, meanwhile, landed more than $121,000 from 179 physicians and just more than $130,000 from 190 lawyers.

Notice that Beshear leads in donations among lawyers by an enormous 1,154 to 190 margin, but Fletcher leads among doctors by a pretty slim 179 to 132 margin. Again, there's a great deal of false balance at work in this media analysis. The much more accurate lede would be "Lawyers line up behind Beshear, Doctors split."

In fact, nowhere in the story does it mention that Beshear's running mate is Dr. Daniel Mongiardo, hence a powerful reason why doctors would be split among the two camps. A noteworthy omission.

Again, there have much more problematic examples of false balance during this race, but I wanted to point out one clear example that I noticed in today's stories.

C-J's Stephenie Steitzer Debunks Silly Media Sideshow On Campaign Finance Numbers

Much credit to Stephenie Steitzer over at the Courier-Journal for succinctly debunking the most recent media sideshow over Governor Fletcher's (R) hollow complaints about Steve Beshear's (D) fundraising numbers (see last night's post):

Gov. Ernie Fletcher's campaign has blasted Beshear in an Associated Press story for including $378,891 worth of "goods and services" from the Democratic Party executive committee in touting having raised $5.3 million in this election cycle. If you subtract the $400,000, Beshear actually raised $4.9 million.

The difference is a big deal, according to the Fletcher campaign, because it shows Beshear out raised Fletcher by $1.5 million as opposed to the $2 million the Beshear campaign touted on Tuesday.

However, the story goes on.

What you need to know is this: the campaign totals of $4.9 million (Beshear) and $3.4 million (Fletcher) both include cash from the executive committees but not in-kind donations.

Why is that important?

Because the Fletcher campaign took in $607,775 in cash from RPK executive committee versus Beshear taking $5,700 in cash from the Democratic Party executive committee.

So, at the end of the day, if you get rid of both cash and in-kind contributions from the executive committees, Beshear raised roughly $4.9 million and Fletcher raised $2.8 million. That's a difference of $2 million, which is where we started!!!!

Precisely. You can thank Ms. Steitzer at ssteitzer@courier-journal.com.

Fletcher's Unraveling

With 27 days to go, we're seeing the final unraveling of Governor Fletcher (R), as he is no doubt headed towards an emphatic landslide loss, and the events of just the past few days have illustrated how bad things have gotten for him.

Today's SurveyUSA poll shows the race unchanged, despite his constant smear attacks on Steve Beshear (D). Fletcher's fundraising was barely half that of Beshear's when you subtract the state party money doled out to the campaigns. The RGA hasn't been seen in two weeks while Bluegrass Freedom is dropping bunker-busting bombs on Fletcher, not to mention the additional independent efforts of organized labor (Working Families for Kentucky and the JCTA). Republicans continue to defect to the Beshear camp, while Democrats are energized and united. And as we head into the final weeks, the Beshear camp has 50% more available cash than Fletcher and that is only likely to grow since late money will flow heavily to the presumed winner (Beshear) and Fletcher's remaining fundraising will quickly dry-up as those doing business with the state aren't going to fear denying him funds, causing them to even more desperately shakedown vendors, appointees and non-merit workers. That dog won't hunt much longer.

Finally, it seems that a "tired and beat" Fletcher appeared at today's Kentucky League of Cities conference. I received the following e-mail from an attendee who observed Fletcher's remarks:

I am attending the KLC Annual Convention in Covington this week. Fletcher just addressed the convention in our opening session.

No real news in his remarks, but just the same old stuff. He hit the casino gambling issue hard, but of course he forgot to tell us that he supported letting voters decide until he started getting drilled in the polls.

He looked tired and beat. He spoke too long, taking time away from keynote speaker Bart Peterson, Mayor of Indianapolis. Fletcher stumbled several times in his remarks and tried to frame the gambling issue as him taking the moral high road to save our Commonwealth from Steve and his casino buddies (he forgot to mention that they were his buddies last time). He said that he has always been against casino gambling, but he and Glenna never thought it would come to Kentucky until recently. What a load of crap.

And then Pat Crowley just published this related tid bit:

I covered a speech Gov. Ernie Fletcher gave at the Kentucky League of Cities convention in Cov and he didn't he mention Ky Central Insurance after he and his party, the RPK, have talked almost non-stop about it for the last week. The entire episode seems like a case of shooting and missing at the target.

The end is near. But it seems that the good minister plans to leave a scorched earth rather than accepting his fate. That's too bad.