BluegrassReport.org

Rep. Geoff Davis (R) -- First-Rate Hypocrite

It's so sad that someone in the public trust would so deceive the voters into the type of congressman he would become if elected. What a fraud.

U.S. Rep Geoff Davis (R), December 2007:

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis ranked among the biggest congressional spenders of tax money to send mailings to constituents last year, which coincided with a tough re-election campaign for the Republican.

Davis, who represents the 4th District in northern Kentucky, sent out 716,803 pieces of mass mailings in 2006. His use of the congressional franking privilege carried an overall cost of $165,316 to taxpayers.

In the 435-member House, Davis was outspent on total mailing costs by four congressmen, all fellow Republicans.

Candidate Geoff Davis (R), August 2002:

At a press conference today, Boone County businessman and Republican candidate for Congress Geoff Davis issued a strongly worded challenge to Congressman Ken Lucas. Lucas has come under fire recently for using the Congressional privilege of taxpayer-funded mail, or franking, to send what amounts to full-color campaign literature.

...At the conference, Mr. Davis showed the clear pattern of increased spending during election years. Mr. Lucas spent $80,828 on franked mail in 2000 on postage alone, then only $21,389 in 2001 according to figures available at the Congressional Office of Budget and Management.

"Ken Lucas has violated the trust of Kentucky's hard working families by this obvious abuse of tax payer dollars," said Geoff Davis, Republican candidate for Congress.  "As Congressman, I will not use the hard-earned money of taxpayers to fund my campaign. I believe that the 4th District's next Congressman should help working families, not abuse their trust. In a time when many families are struggling, this shows how out of touch Mr. Lucas is with the District," remarked Mr. Davis.

Shameless hypocritical fraud.

This isn't the first time Davis has flaunted this pledge. Click here and the media's reaction here.

UPDATE (5:59 PM): Pat Crowley asks:

The mailings coincided with his re-election campaign against Dem Ken Lucas. What say you, conservative voters? Is Davis keeping his constituents informed or abusing the privilege in an election year?

KY2: It's (Almost) Official -- Boswell To Challenge Lewis

Music to my ears...looks like we have a top-tier challenger for one congressional seat as State Sen. David Boswell (D) appears ready to challenge the very unimpressive and beatable U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) for his 2nd Congressional District seat:

Democratic State Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro said he is planning a press conference "in the very, very near future" to officially announce his candidacy to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecilia.

"I do plan to run for the U.S. Congress in the 2nd District," Boswell said yesterday. "I think people, overall, are ready for change. They're ready for a new guard."

Boswell, who was agriculture commissioner from 1984 to 1988 and has been a senator since 1991, said the win by fellow Democrat Steve Beshear in Tuesday's governor's race gives him and other potential candidates for next year's election a huge boost.

Now we need to find candidates in the 1st, 4th, and why not take a shot in the 5th, even if it's an enormous longshot?

Aside from never knowing what can happen in a political election, why not aggressively challenge all seats instead of effectively conceding them? I'm sure we can find a young local lawyer in the district that would be willing to take the plunge and get some political hands-on experience.

Is Heather French Henry Considering Challenging Rep. Geoff Davis (R)?

I'm hearing some chatter from both sides of the political aisle lately that former Miss America Heather French Henry, a Maysville native, is considering challenging U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R) in the 4th Congressional District next year. Anyone else hearing this?

While I was no fan of her husband's gubernatorial bid earlier this year, I could get very excited about a congressional bid by Heather. In fact, a little more than two years ago I even offered Heather as a terrific challenger for that seat:

Who would be a great Democratic candidate for Congress in the district spanning the Cincinnati, Ashland, Lexington and Louisville media markets? Well, it would have to be someone people know and like. Someone who could raise money. Someone who has a compelling story...

Well, Heather French Henry is from Maysville, Kentucky, smack-dab in the middle of that congressional district. She's a well-loved former Miss America, a media magnet who could raise a ton of cash across the state, is a former Republican herself, and who is extremely active in issues involving veterans and military families.

Add to this list the fact that Davis voted against providing health care to children by voting against the override of President Bush's (R) offensive veto of the wildly popular program.

Anyway, not to get ahead of myself since I'm only hearing unconfirmed chatter but it sure would be great to get the local girl to take on Davis. That fact that Republicans are hearing it makes me wonder whether there is something to it.

Let me know if you're hearing anything.

The Silver Lining: There's Still Time To Drop-Out...

Third quarter congressional fundraising numbers are out, and despite former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R) hosting a big fundraiser for him last month, it seems that Erwin Roberts' (R) fundraising leaves a lot to be desired in his quixotic quest to knock-off U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) in one of the worst possible years for a Republican challenger to try to defeat a Democratic incumbent in a majority Democratic district.

	Raised QTR	Raised Year	Cash-on-Hand
Yarmuth (D)	$129,887	$730,288	$536,050
Roberts (R)	$67,923	$111,215	$63,900

Making things worse for Roberts is how the NRCC is broke:

"At the end of August, the National Republican Congressional Committee reported only $1.6 million cash on hand, with $4 million in debt. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, by comparison, had banked over $22 million, with only $3 million in debt."

Translation: The DCCC has $19 million while the NRCC is in the red, meaning the NRCC will be lucky to help vulnerable incumbents at most -- yet alone underfunded challengers in Democratic districts -- and even they acknowledge more loses of House seats are on the way for Republicans in 2008.

And if that wasn't bad enough...the unindicted co-conspirator (aka Roberts) has these additional eight hurdles that make his quest more like climbing Mt. Everest without supplemental oxygen on his first mountain climb ever. But there's plenty of time for Roberts to reconsidering the enormity of the challenge before him and get out before getting spanked.

Oh yeah, here's how the congressional delegation did:

	Raised QTR	Spent QTR	Raised Year	Spent Year	Cash-on-Hand
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$125,928	$27,609	$350,232	$150,992	$932,193
Lewis (R-KY2)	$107,915	$41,593	$376,293	$156,030	$312,993
Yarmuth (D-KY3)	$129,887	$54,330	$730,288	$252,132	$536,050
Davis (R-KY4)	$199,377	$97,772	$827,877	$438,678	$530,907
Rogers (R-KY5)	$78,090	$28,352	$148,849	$128,041	$1,007,224
Chandler (D-KY6)	$144,570	$22,609	$450,170	$71,572	$934,520

Seems that Lewis is tempting fate again with his very tepid fundraising. You'd think he'd learn by now. I suspect he'll have much more on his hands in 2008 than he did in 2006, and raising $100k per quarter with only $300k in the bank seems mighty, mighty foolish...

P.S. -- Just got my Article 1 button in the mail, along with a copy of the U.S. Constitution. Thanks much to the awesome Yarmuth staff. They rock.

Cabinet Visits Here Probed (Crowley, Kentucky Enquirer)

The probe of the Bush Administration's efforts to use official government officials to help its most vulnerable Republican candidates (see link) has now expanded to Kentucky's 4th Congress District. What a shock.

Pat Crowley has the story:

Cabinet Visits Here Probed
By Patrick Crowley, Kentucky Enquirer

In the summer of last year, Northern Kentucky Congressman Geoff Davis was popular with White House officials.

Two top members of the Bush administration - Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez and drug czar John Walters - came to Kentucky for high-profile media events with Davis that were paid for by taxpayers.

But a congressional committee is now investigating whether the visits were more about politics and publicity than policy.

[...]

But Walters' visit to Kentucky is part of an investigation by the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. According to documents and statements on the committee's Web site, Chairman Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., is probing whether the White House violated federal laws by trying to politicize the visits.

Waxman has requested documents from, among others, Gutierrez, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and Sara Taylor, who at the time was White House Director of Political Affairs.

Waxman wrote to Taylor that documents the committee has "suggest that White House efforts to politicize the activities of federal agencies may be more widespread than previously known."

"Your memo shows that John Walters, the nation's drug czar, and his deputies traveled at your suggestion to 20 events with vulnerable Republican members of Congress in the months before the 2006 elections," Waxman wrote. "The trips were paid for by federal taxpayers and ... benefited the districts of the Republican members."

Waxman said documents also show that Karl Rove, President Bush's recently departed political and policy adviser, commended the Commerce Department for "going above and beyond the call of duty" in arranging "surrogate appearances by Cabinet members."

Follow The Money

If you're interested in knowing how Kentucky's federal delegation gets its bread buttered, MAPLight.org has an update on the campaign finance breakdown for each of our state's members for the most recently completed cycle.

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $250,047
ATTORNEY $122,100
PHYSICIAN $91,801
FARMER $74,860
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $62,700
SELF-EMPLOYED $42,850
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $41,250
HUMANA INC $38,877
GRIFFIN INDUSTRIES $38,800
PEABODY ENERGY $35,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $390,848
Retired $242,047
Security brokers & investment companies $234,949
Pro-Israel $173,735
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $168,550
Lobbyists & public relations $147,295
Farmers, in general $121,160
Hospitals $121,100
Physicians $115,177
Coal mining $108,600

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $184,175
ATTORNEY $62,770
PHYSICIAN $58,750
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,100
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS $20,000
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $17,050
ASHLAND INC $16,250
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $15,000
FARMER $13,750
RJ REYNOLDS TOBACCO $13,500

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $191,984
Retired $188,875
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $164,199
Security brokers & investment companies $130,243
Other physician specialists $125,800
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $117,949
Lobbyists & public relations $94,516
Physicians $81,750
Pro-Israel $64,900
Life insurance $61,083

U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers (R-KY5)

[organizations]
ATTORNEY $18,000
ADDINGTON ENTERPRISES $17,800
RETIRED $17,450
BEECHFORK PROCESSING $16,000
CONSULTANT $13,850
FIRST NATIONAL BANK $12,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
GEO GROUP $10,000
GENERAL ELECTRIC $10,000
LOCKHEED MARTIN $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $40,700
Engineers - type unknown $28,900
Lobbyists & public relations $25,400
Business services $25,050
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $21,000
Defense areospace contractors $21,000
Civil servant/public employee $20,750
Mining $20,000
Vegetables, fruits & tree nuts $18,900
Retired $17,450

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY4)

[organizations]
RETIRED $191,705
SELF-EMPLOYED $22,882
ATTORNEY $18,900
EMERALD COAL $16,500
INVESTOR $15,050
AMERICAN BANKERS ASSN $15,000
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $14,100
CNG FINANCIAL $12,700
CINTAS CORP $11,600
DRS TECHNOLOGIES $11,200

[interests]
Retired $191,705
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $91,727
Attorneys & law firms $85,900
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $70,550
Credit agencies & finance companies $53,550
Lobbyists & public relations $52,603
Security brokers & investment companies $49,432
Residential construction $41,800
Coal mining $39,050
Mortgage bankers & brokers $37,550

U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R-KY2)

[organizations]
SELF-EMPLOYED $52,607
RETIRED $38,010
PHYSICIAN $24,060
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,350
ATTORNEY $14,800
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $14,499
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $10,250
AMERICAN PHYSICAL THERAPY ASSN $10,000
AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSN $10,000
PINKERTON TOBACCO $10,000

[interests]
General commerce $57,707
Tobacco & tobacco products $46,850
Physicians $41,060
Retired $38,010
Hospitals $36,600
Other physician specialists $33,450
Attorneys & law firms $31,150
Wine & distilled spirits manufacturing $28,077
Lobbyists & public relations $27,494
Accident & health insurance $21,500

U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield (R-KY1)

[organizations]
RETIRED $33,350
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $21,250
PHYSICIAN $21,200
AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP $12,250
NATIONAL CABLE & TELECOMMUNICATIONS ASSN $11,000
AT&T INC $10,000
UNION PACIFIC CORP $10,000
PFIZER INC $10,000
WINE & SPIRITS WHOLESALERS OF AMERICA $10,000
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,000

[interests]
Other physician specialists $76,785
Pharmaceutical manufacturing $38,752
Telephone utilities $35,000
Retired $33,350
Physicians $33,200
Attorneys & law firms $32,100
Railroads $25,600
Tobacco & tobacco products $23,500
Pharmaceutical wholesale $21,250
Liquor wholesalers $20,500

U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (R-KY6)

[organizations]
RETIRED $37,600
ATTORNEY $19,300
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,500
INTL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS $10,000
NATIONAL ASSN OF REALTORS $10,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
NATIONAL AUTO DEALERS ASSN $10,000
IRONWORKERS UNION $10,000
TEAMSTERS UNION $10,000
FARM CREDIT COUNCIL $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $69,924
Construction unions $49,000
Retired $37,600
Manufacturing unions $30,000
Air transport unions $18,700
Farmers, in general $18,550
Express delivery services $15,499
Restaurants & drinking establishments $15,450
Liquor wholesalers $15,000
Banks & lending institutions $14,900

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY3)
No data yet

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R) Tops All 535 Members of Congess In Payday Industry Contributions

Here's another reason why Republicans are going to have an impossible time using gubernatorial nominee Steve Beshear's (D) lobbying for the payday lending industry in the 1990s against him: U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R) leads all members of the U.S. House and Senate in the last election cycle in taking contributions from the industry.

In a comprehensive report recently done by MAPLight.org, Davis is listed in first-place among 435 House members and 100 Senators when it came to money from payday lenders (see page 9). In return for that support, you'll recall Davis' secret effort last year to fight a cap on payday loans to military personnel, at least until journalist John Cheves exposed Davis' effort in a front-page Herald-Leader story. While we knew then that Davis had received a good deal of payday contributions, little did we realize that he was 1st of 535.

Congrats to Geoff Davis for being the payday loan industry's BFF (best friends forever).

State Treasurer's Race

The one campaign that I've heard nothing about during this election season is the Democratic primary for State Treasurer. We've heard plenty from the four-way race on Republican side (which includes three state representatives), but little from the two major Democratic candidates: former State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) and Todd Hollenbach, IV (D).

While it seemed that Weaver had the natural advantage heading into the primary, given his years in the legislature and congressional race against U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R), I'm not so sure that Weaver is the clear favorite any longer.

One thing about Weaver that really concerns me is his seeming inability to adequately fundraise. That was his clear Achilles' Heel during last year's congressional bid when he raised less than $900,000 for a bid that received national attention (Lewis spent $2 million). In contrast, both John Yarmuth (D) and Ken Lucas (D) raised $1.5 million each for their campaigns (Yarmuth added another $700,000 in personal loans). Even Tony Miller (D) raised $1.2 million in 2004 when Anne Northup (R) defeated him by more than 20 points.

So, how is Weaver doing in fundraising so far?

According to his just filed campaign finance report, Weaver has raised only $10,491 to date, compared $37,899 for Hollenbach. On the Republican side, two of the four candidates have reported so far. Lonnie Napier (R) raised $89,310 and Melinda Wheeler (R) raised $53,920. (See Pol Watchers for the breakdown.)

Weaver's residual name ID alone may win him the nomination. But given his continued struggle to raise adequate money, would Democrats be making a mistake electing him as the nominee to face Republicans in the fall who, apparently, aren't having those same problems?

It concerns me.

Fundraising

Last week, we learned that Senator McConnell (R) has raised nearly $6 million for his 2008 re-election.

So, I thought I'd take a look at our other federal officials.

Senator Bunning (R) raised $45,445 during the 1st quarter of 2007, leaving him with a cash balance of $113,607. So far, he's raised $256,527 toward his 2010 re-election.

Here's how the state's U.S. House members are doing:

Member	Q1 2007 Raised	Q1 2007 Spent	Cash-On-Hand
Davis (R-KY4)	$317,479	$144,531	$239,720
Yarmuth (D-KY3)	$303,892	$37,249	$292,695
Chandler (D-KY6)	$140,221	$21,686	$708,648
Lewis (R-KY2)	$110,040	$14,530	$153,072
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$56,950	$52,840	$692,987
Rogers (R-KY5)	$16,000	$46,923	$988,196

Both Davis and Yarmuth are aggressively raising funds for their 2008 re-election, though Davis' campaign finance reports shows he spent about $90,000 in various "Direct Mail Expenses."  I'm a little surprised by Lewis' paltry showing given that he should expect another serious challenge next year.

By the way for comparison, here's where things stood two years ago after the 1st quarter of 2005 filing:

Member	Q1 2005 Raised	Q1 2005 Spent	Cash-On-Hand
Northup (R-KY3)	$385,506	$37,375	$390,321
Davis (R-KY4)	$274,067	$102,895	$283,809
Chandler(D-KY6)	$123,888	$55,160	$240,021
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$96,396	$40,696	$751,123
Lewis (R-KY2)	$16,468	$29,109	$314,770
Rogers (R-KY5)	$11,000	$55,490	$896,489

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) Not On Karl Rove's Top 20 Target List For 2008

TPMmuckraker has the skinny on a presentation that Karl Rove's deputy (Kentucky's own Scott Jennings) gave to personnel of the General Services Administration (GSA) staff earlier this year and was produced in conjunction with congressional testimony today by its top official. The presentation reveals a number of particularly relevant Kentucky-specific items.

First, one page of Rove's power point was entitled "2008 House Targets: Top 20" and not included on that list was U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D). That's right, John is not considered by Rove as one of their Top 20 targets in 2008. All three of the Indiana seats that Democrats flipped last year are listed, but not Yarmuth.

Here's that page (click image for larger version):

However, U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) is named on another Rove chart entitled "2008 House GOP Defense" under the column "Secondary Defense". No other Kentucky House seats are mentioned in the presentation.

Additionally, in discussing where the ground game worked and didn't work in 2006 House races, it reveals interesting information concerning KY3 (Northup) and KY4 (Davis).

Apparently, the final polls taken in the 2006 races showed that Anne Northup (R) had a 13-point lead over John Yarmuth (D) (50% to 37%), but lost that race by two points. Meanwhile, Geoff Davis (R) was leading Ken Lucas (D) by just 1-point (44% to 43%) but won his race by seven points.

By the way, the underlying testimony regarding Jennings' efforts with GSA officials is pretty sketchy as well as I suspect we haven't heard the last of it. Seems that Mr. Jennings is finding himself in the national news a little more than he'd like. Recall this recent development.

Here's what TPMmuckraker wrote:

After the presentation, Doan reportedly asked other employees how the agency could help "our candidates." The GSA, remember, is the government's procurement agency, in charge of almost $60 billion each year. All of this seems like a clear violation of the Hatch Act, which prohibits using federal resources to aid political parties.

Click here for Rove's entire 13-page presentation.

Think Progress has great coverage as well.

Apparently, Rep. Geoff Davis (R) Knows Better Than Top American Military Leadership...

Apparently, U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R) is smarter than Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Peter Pace when it comes to knowing our troops.

Davis, today:

"This nonbinding resolution serves no purpose other than pacifying the Democrats' political base and lowering morale in our military."

Gates and Pace, last week:

War Foes Will Not Hurt Morale
By Stephen Dinan, The Washington Times
Published February 8, 2007

The Defense Department's top civilian and its top military officer, undercutting the White House and other senior Republicans yesterday, said Congress doesn't endanger troop morale by voting on nonbinding resolutions opposing President Bush's Iraq reinforcement plan.

"From the standpoint of the troops, I believe that they understand how our legislature works and that they understand that there's going to be this kind of debate," said Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Peter Pace, effectively taking out of play an argument that had been made by Mr. Bush's spokesman and other top Republicans, who had warned resolutions disagreeing with the troop increase plan would send bad signals.

Joining Gen. Pace in testifying to the House Armed Services Committee, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said the troops are "sophisticated enough to understand" that the debate is about a way to move forward in Iraq.

Good thing Davis knows better than top American military brass.

Seems that the Geoff Davis that Al Cross referred to as having "certified himself as a yahoo" in November 2005 -- following his intemperate comments on the House floor during debate on Iraq -- is back in full bloom.

Lucky us.

(Hat tip to reader Gregarious Red for catching Davis' comment.)

Does Rep. Geoff Davis (R) Believe That Humans And Dinosaurs Co-Existed?

Just when we think we've seen the most disturbing side of U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R) comes this story on his patronage of the museum that pays homage to that time when humans and dinosaurs co-existed:

Dinosaurs, Humans Coexist In Creationist Museum
Monday Jan 15 11:25 AEDT

PETERSBURG, Kentucky - Ken Ham's sprawling creation museum isn't even open yet, but an expansion is already underway in the state-of-the art lobby, where grunting dinosaurs and animatronic humans coexist in a Biblical paradise.

A crush of media attention and packed preview sessions have convinced Ham that nearly half a million people a year will come to Kentucky to see his Biblically correct version of history.

"I think we'll be surprised at how many people come," Ham said as he dodged dozens of designers working to finish exhibits in time for the May 28 opening.

The $34 million project, which also includes a planetarium, a special-effects theatre, nature trails and a small lake, is privately funded by people who believe the Bible's first book, Genesis, is literally true.

For them, a museum showing Christian schoolchildren and skeptics alike how the earth, animals, dinosaurs and humans were created in a six-day period about 6,000 years ago — not over millions of years, as evolutionary science says — is long overdue.

While foreign media and science critics have mostly come to snigger at exhibits explaining how baby dinosaurs fit on Noah's Ark and Cain married his sister to people the earth, museum spokesman and vice-president Mark Looy said the coverage has done nothing but drum up more interest.

"Mocking publicity is free publicity," Looy said. Besides, US media have been more respectful, mindful perhaps of a 2006 Gallup Poll showing almost half of Americans believe that humans did not evolve, but were created by God in their present form within the last 10,000 years.

Looy said supporters of the museum include evangelical Christians, Orthodox Jews and conservative Catholics, as well as the local Republican congressman, Geoff Davis, and his family, who have toured the site.

[...]

Ham, an Australian who moved to America 20 years ago, believes creationists could have presented a better case at the Scopes trail if they'd been better educated — but he's not among those pushing for creation to be taught in school.

Curious that this story showed up in an Australian newspaper (the museum's owner is from there) but no mention in Kentucky papers.

Scary. (Thanks to a reader for this fine catch)

House Easily Passes First Piece Of 100-Hour Program -- Anti-Terror Legislation

The House has easily passed, by a 299-128 margin, legislation to implement the 9/11 Commission Recommendations. It was the first vote on the Democratic majority's 100-hour program.

While both U.S. Reps. Ben Chandler (D) and John Yarmuth (D) voted for the resolution, the other four (Republican) members of the Kentucky House delegation voted against it.

It's shameful how truly out-of-touch Hal Rogers, Geoff Davis, Ed Whitfield and Ron Lewis are with their rank partisanship and their votes against implementing the bi-partisan 9/11 Commission. Absurd.

By the way, I'm certain these Bluegrass wingnuts will be happily supporting the Bush Administration's call for an additional 21,500 troops to go into Iraq (17,500 for Baghdad and 4,000 for Anbar Province).

A Revealing Look

The Courier-Journal submitted written questions to our congressional delegation on the Iraq Study Group report, asking them where they stand on a couple of issues.

What is noteworthy is how Senator Bunning (R) and Rep. Geoff Davis (R) show themselves to be disturbingly out of sync with the rest of the Kentucky delegation over the question: "Should the United States engage in negotiations with Iran and Syria to find ways to stop sectarian violence in Iraq, and why or why not?"

U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield, R-Ky.
"Yes, any new diplomatic offensive cannot be successful unless it includes the active participation of all countries that have a critical stake in preventing Iraq from falling into chaos. For different reasons those countries would be Iran and Syria, as well as Turkey, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan."

U.S. Rep. Harold “Hal” Rogers, R-Ky.
"The people of Iraq — as well as its neighbors in the Middle East — have an interest in a peaceful, stable Iraq. Diplomatic and political approaches can assist in bringing about a united and stable Iraq."

U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Ky.
"Considering the instability and dangerous circumstances that our troops are facing every day in Iraq, I see no reason why the United States should not explore every option for finding potential solutions to this ongoing war.

"If we can persuade countries neighboring Iraq to be helpful in our efforts rather than harmful, then that would certainly be to our advantage."

U.S. Rep.-elect John Yarmuth, D-Ky.
"They (Iran and Syria) are critical figures in backing a lot of the insurgency and therefore there’s no reason we wouldn’t want to try to engage them to see if they can help stop it."

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky.
"I do not support engaging in negotiations with rogue nations such as Iran and Syria that are known sponsors of terrorist groups in Iraq, Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza.

"I do not believe that we should give terrorists a seat at the negotiating table. Such a shift in our nation’s foreign policy could have grave consequences for our national security."

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis, R-Ky.
"It is important to the stability of the Middle East to increase the diplomatic dialogue between all of Iraq’s neighbors. The United States will not negotiate with Iran and Syria regarding Iraq’s future — that is for the Iraqis to determine."

(Note that neither Senator McConnell nor Congressman Lewis responded directly to the questions.)

2007 Governor's Race: Billy Harper (R)

Pat Crowley has a story in today's Kentucky Enquirer about Billy Harper's (R) long-shot bid to knock-off indicted Governor Fletcher (R) in next May's Republican gubernatorial primary.

Funny that both Democrats and Republicans are critical of his efforts already:

"I'm somebody who loves and appreciates the art of politics," former Kenton County Democratic Party official Nathan Smith said. "But this is crazy. You think he would wait until Jan. 3 or sometime after the holidays. People were sick of the ads from the election; they don't want to see more of them already."

Said Kenton County GOP Party Chairman Greg Shumate: "It's awful early. People aren't thinking about next year's governor's race. They are thinking about shopping, the holidays, stuff like that."

On an unrelated note, I wanted to give credit where credit is due. In April, I ridiculed Kentucky County GOP Chairman Greg Shumate for predicting that Rep. Geoff Davis (R) would defeat former Rep. Ken Lucas (D) by more than 10 points. While not quite winning by 10 (Davis won by 8), Shumate was effectively correct, at least a lot closer than I was. Ouch.

KY4

I will use this post for updates on KY4 (Davis v. Lucas), so please use this as the main thread for discussion.

(8:05 PM) (KY4): Just 7% reporting but Lucas up 48.2% to 46.4%

(10:21 PM) -- CNN just called the race for Davis.

PREDICTION RESULTS

216 of you took part in today's survey of predicting who will win tonight's races:

3rd Congressional District

Yarmuth (D) -- 77.7%
Northup (R) -- 22.3%

4th Congressional District

Lucas (D) -- 67.1%
Davis (R) -- 32.9%

2nd Congressional District

Weaver (D) -- 38.6%
Lewis (R) -- 61.4%

1st Congressional District

Barlow (D) -- 22.4%
Whitfield (R) -- 77.6%

5th Congressional District

Stepp (D) -- 8.6%
Rogers (R) -- 91.4%

Louisville Mayor

Abramson (D) -- 97.5%
Downard (R) -- 1.0%
Springston (I) -- 1.5%

Lexington Mayor

Newberry -- 72.2%
Isaac -- 27.8%

Supreme Court -- District 1

Cunningham -- 62.4%
Johnson -- 37.6%

Supreme Court -- District 4

Shake -- 57.4%
McAnulty -- 42.6%

Supreme Court -- District 5

Noble -- 73.6%
Roach -- 26.4%

Supreme Court -- District 6

Schroder -- 75.3%
Carey -- 24.7%

2nd Senate District

Hubbard (D) -- 54.5%
Leeper (I) -- 40.9%
Archer (R) -- 4.5%

12th Senate District

Keller (D) -- 50.5%
Forgy Kerr (R) -- 49.5%

Will Democrats Take Control of U.S. House?

Yes -- 93.8%
No -- 6.2%

Will Democrats Take Control of U.S. Senate?

Yes -- 33%
No -- 67%

Will Ben Chandler Run for Governor In 2007?

Yes -- 15.2%
No -- 84.8%

KY CONGRESSIONAL RACES

Here are links to the Secretary of State's website on the state's six congressional races:

1st Congressional District -- Whitfield (R) v. Barlow (D)
2nd Congressional District -- Lewis (R) v. Weaver (D)
3rd Congressional District -- Northup (R) v. Yarmuth (D)
4th Congressional District -- Davis (R) v. Lucas (D)
5th Congressional District -- Rogers (R) v. Stepp (D)
6th Congressional District -- Chandler (D) v. Ard (L)

The Washington Monthly -- Update #1

Here's my first update on The Washington Monthly's SHOWDOWN '06 website:

LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY, 12:22 p.m.

Hard to imagine that the Ohio River Valley of Kentucky and Indiana is the early bellwether this evening, but it’s true. So let’s just stick that turkey thermometer right into the Ohio River as we close the oven door for the early 6:00 pm closing of the polls here. Six Republican-held seats (KY2, KY3, KY4, IN2, IN8, and IN9) are in imminent peril, four of them alone in the Louisville media market.

Kentucky has become the most improbable epicenter of activity this evening. The state, which has sharply trended Republican over the past decade, contains a Republican governor, and two Republican senators. Five of the six congressional seats are held by the GOP (Ben Chandler is the state’s lone Democrat), and we have a Republican-controlled state Senate. Bush carried the state with 60% of the vote in 2004.

(click here to keep reading)

Predictions

I'll put together a final comprehensive survey later today to test your final predictions about tomorrow's elections. In the meantime, what do you think will happen tomorrow night?

No doubt that races are tightening and so many are still so competitive that it's hard to know which way some will lean. I am confident tomorrow will be a very good night for Democrats across the country and here in Kentucky.

So, let me offer my predictions and encourage you to offer your own:            

• (KY3) John Yarmuth (D) will defeat Rep. Anne Northup (R) by a 52-47 margin.
     
• (KY4) Former Rep. Ken Lucas (D) will defeat Rep. Geoff Davis (R) 49-47.
                 
• (KY2) While I hope I am wrong, I think Rep. Ron Lewis (R) will hold off State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) by a margin around 53-47.
                       
• (KY1) Former Rep. Tom Barlow (D) will receive a surprisingly strong 45% of the vote against Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) despite spending no money.
                    
• (State House) In Frankfort, House Democrats will pick-up 7 Republican-held seats in the House and hold on to all Democratic-held seats, increasing its majority from 56-44 to 63-37.
               
• (State Senate) Senate Democrats will pick-up one seat, but I'm not certain which one.
                 
• (Supreme Court) Ann O'Malley Shake, Mary Noble, Wil Schroder, Bill Cunningham and John Minton (running unopposed) will be elected to the Kentucky Supreme Court.
                          
• (U.S. House) Nationally, Democrats will retake the House of Representatives by picking-up 33 Republican-held seats and will not lose one of its own.
              
• (U.S. Senate) In the Senate, Democrats will win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana, Virginia and Missouri and New Jersey, giving them a 51-49 majority. Tennessee and Arizona will be much closer than expected but Republicans will hold on. (I concur with Larry Sabato's analysis here)
                 
• (UPSET) My pick for biggest upset of the night in Kentucky is Amy Shir (D) knocking-off Republican House Caucus Chairman Bob DeWeese (R) for the 48th House District seat, as she's able to ride the wave of support from a strong Democratic female vote that propels John Yarmuth to Congress -- on top of the exceptionally strong campaign she ran on her own.

Be On The Lookout

Josh Marshall is reporting this evening a very sleazy tactic that the NRCC is employing in some competitive House races arounf the country -- so be on the lookout for them here in KY2, KY3 and KY4 and e-mail me ASAP if you receive one of them:

What we're seeing is an apparent coordinated effort from the NRCC -- the House GOP committee -- to place calls that appear to be from the local Democratic candidate and then automatically call the same number back as many as seven or eight times each time the caller hang-ups. If the caller listens to the whole message it goes on to bash the Democratic candidate. But if the caller hangs up prematurely, the computer calls right back. Hang-ups are the achilles heal of robo-calls. So this seems to be an attempt to cover for that weakness by making those who hang up think the Democratic candidate is basically harassing them with phone calls. The GOP wins either way.

KY3, KY4, KY2 and IN9

James Carroll takes a good look at the four hotly contested Republican-held House seats in the Louisville market in today's Courier-Journal.

The whole piece is worth a read, but Senator McConnell (R) again shows us all he thinks matters about politics:

Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said he does not think any GOP House members in Kentucky will be looking for new jobs Wednesday morning.

"I think you can stipulate that the atmosphere is not great this year for Republicans -- what you don't know in advance of the election is whether there is a (Democratic) wave or not," McConnell said.

"These three races down here have raised enough money and have defined the incumbents well enough to the point I believe they can resist the atmosphere," he said.

It's sad that politics so often comes down to who has enough money to "define" themselves and opponents, not about a vision or issues. I don't disagree with McConnell. I just lament it.

However, this does appear to be one election cycle when money is making a lot less of a difference considering that incumbents in KY2, KY3 and KY4 have spent about three times the money as their challengers but trail in the polls with just two days to go.

Founding Swift Boat Liar Is Backing Pro-Geoff Davis (R) Ad

Why aren't I suprised that a wing-nut like Rep. Geoff Davis (R) is now one of a handful of beneficiaries of ads bought by Swift Boat founder Bob Perry?:

The Power of Bob Perry's 'Swift-Boating' Money
by Bill Berkowitz | Nov 3 2006 - 8:54am

Houston-based homebuilder and primary funder behind 'Swift Boat Veterans for Truth' pumps millions into congressional races

In New Mexico, according to Federal Election Commission records, Americans for Honesty on Issues has spent $165,000 in support of the campaign of Republican Rep. Heather Wilson, who is hoping to hold onto her seat against her Democratic challenger, Attorney General Patricia Madrid. In Iowa, the same group has purchased $159,572 in ads against Democrat Bruce Braley, who is running against Republican Mike Whalen. In Kentucky, Americans for Honesty is sponsoring ads targeting Democratic Party candidate Ken Lucas, who is running for a House seat against Republican Rep. Geoff Davis.

(click here to keep reading)