BluegrassReport.org

Guess Who's Back?

Well, it took a lot longer than I expected or desired, but after a hiatus to figure out how to best keep BluegrassReport.org alive, I am pleased to announce that we will again be live, for good, come Monday morning.

After toying with a number of ideas of how to return BGR to the mix, while maintaining its style and quality, I think we've finally figured it out. Starting Monday, BGR will be managed and run on a day-to-day basis by someone familiar with -- and plugged into -- Kentucky politics and who will become the primary voice on the site, develop a relationship with all of you, and find his own style and voice. Though, you'll have to come back on Monday to find out who this is.

And to the chagrin of many, I'm back too, at least as a regular contributor on top of my work over at Political Base, as I discussed in a previous post this year. While I'm not up-to-date on the minutiae of what is happening in Frankfort or in the crucial local races, I do intend to weigh-in and comment on the federal races going on in the Commonwealth, as well as provide some insight on the national scene. And I'll be as bombastic as ever.

So, I'm very sorry it's taken six months to get BGR back on track. It has taken some time to get Political Base off the ground and doing well and then collaborate with folks in Kentucky to ensure BGR's survival. It's going to be a lot of fun to get back into the groove, and it sure seems like a lot has happened on the federal front since I last wrote.

In particular, I'm looking forward to:

• Figuring out how many more African-Americans that Rep. Geoff Davis (R) has called "boy" lately;
• Watching former Rep. Anne Northup (R) lose her third election in two years (even if I did help her win that second one...against that incompetent former governor);
• Discovering whether Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) has yet to live in a house in Kentucky that he owns;
• Learning more about how Rep. Ron Lewis (R) blatantly lied to the media about his re-election plans after I busted him for putting his house on the market last year, as David Boswell (D) takes back that House seat and puts it back in the blue column;
• Investigating how many more family members Rep. Hal Rogers (R) managed to get on the payroll of national security companies he helped get government contracts;
• Helping Bruce Lunsford (D) land Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) in the same unemployment line with Northup. (By the way, be sure to check out my '10 Questions With Bruce Lunsford' that I published last month).

So...it's going to be fun. I hope you'll add BGR back to your regular rotation, beginning Monday. We have lots of good stuff planned.

Miss you all, Mark

Kentucky's Clear Blue Shift

One of the recent signs that have made more predict that U.S. Sen. McConnell (R) is in for a rougher re-election fight than expected is the fact that President Bush's (R) job approval numbers in Kentucky have plummeted to a disastrously low 35% approve and 65% disapprove.

Indeed, those numbers do suggest that the man who has proudly defended and advanced the Bush agenda ought to be very concerned. But a closer look at those numbers tell an even more problematic story for McConnell.

You see, while Bush is becoming less popular in Kentucky, he's also getting less popular in the other 49 states, so simply using Bush's plunging numbers in Kentucky only tell part of the story. But where things are much more instructive is to see where Bush has dropped more than elsewhere over the past few years.

When you do that, you'll notice that in only one state (New Mexico) has Bush's job performance tumbled more than it has in Kentucky -- among those states which SurveyUSA has been testing monthly since May 2005 -- when you compare the differences in President Bush's net rating (approval minus disapproval):

State	Nov 2007	May 2005	Diff
New Mexico	-35 (32/67)	-4 (46/50)	-31
Kentucky	-27 (35/62)	+2 (49/47)	-29
California	-44 (26/70)	-15 (39/54)	-29
New York	-54 (22/76)	-25 (35/60)	-29
Minnesota	-30 (34/64)	-2 (47/49)	-28
Massachusetts	-54 (22/76)	-26 (35/61)	-28
Virginia	-32 (33/65)	-6 (44/50)	-26
Kansas	-21 (38/59)	+4 (49/45)	-25
Washington	-35 (31/66)	-10 (42/52)	-25
Oregon	-36 (31/67)	-13 (42/55)	-23
Alabama	-16 (41/57)	+6 (50/44)	-22
Wisconsin	-33 (32/65)	-12 (42/54)	-21
Missouri	-28 (35/63)	-10 (42/52)	-18
Iowa	-33 (32/65)	-17 (39/56)	-16
Ohio	-29 (34/63)	-20 (38/58)	-9
AVERAGE	-33.8	-9.9	-23.9

That - along with the plummeting of new Kentucky Republican voters over the past two years and this month's landslide defeat of Governor Fletcher (R) -- really paints a picture that a political realignment is happening here in a noticeable way and these dynamics couldn't be happening to McConnell at a worse time.

Does that lead me to believe that Kentucky is becoming a Democratic state again? No, I wouldn't go that far.

But I do believe these trends tell us that Kentucky is much more politically comparable to the Midwest swing states than it is to the South, which is how the state seemed to behave for much of the past decade, until around 2005 when we began to see a subtle but steady change in the political attitudes of Kentucky voters, leading to John Yarmuth's (D) defeat of Anne Northup (R) in the 3rd congressional district and this year's defeat of Fletcher and plunging approval numbers for McConnell.

This is why McConnell should be even more concerned and why the environment is right for a serious challenge of both U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis' (R) and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield's (R) congressional seat, as well as the take-back of the state Senate.

(Note: While SurveyUSA has conducted monthly Bush approval tracking in the states since May 2005, about a year ago it narrowed its month survey from all 50 states to 15 states, which is why the above chart only lists those states.)

The Rothenberg Political Report Says Yarmuth's Seat "Not In Play"

Good news for U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D), as the The Rothenberg Political Report -- one of top national political analyst -- says his seat is "not in play". That should seriously affect any challenger's ability to attract much national money:

Of the 30 seats taken over by Democrats a year ago, 12 seats appear not to be in play in 2008 — those now held by Reps. Michael Arcuri (New York’s 24th district), Bruce Braley (Iowa’s 1st), Joe Courtney (Connecticut’s 2nd), Joe Donnelly (Indiana’s 2nd), Paul Hodes (New Hampshire’s 2nd), Ron Klein (Florida’s 22nd), Dave Loebsack (Iowa’s 2nd), Patrick Murphy (Pennsylvania’s 8th), Ed Perlmutter (Colorado’s 7th), Joe Sestak (Pennsylvania’s 7th), Heath Shuler (North Carolina’s 11th) and John Yarmuth (Kentucky’s 3rd).

The Silver Lining: There's Still Time To Drop-Out...

Third quarter congressional fundraising numbers are out, and despite former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R) hosting a big fundraiser for him last month, it seems that Erwin Roberts' (R) fundraising leaves a lot to be desired in his quixotic quest to knock-off U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) in one of the worst possible years for a Republican challenger to try to defeat a Democratic incumbent in a majority Democratic district.

	Raised QTR	Raised Year	Cash-on-Hand
Yarmuth (D)	$129,887	$730,288	$536,050
Roberts (R)	$67,923	$111,215	$63,900

Making things worse for Roberts is how the NRCC is broke:

"At the end of August, the National Republican Congressional Committee reported only $1.6 million cash on hand, with $4 million in debt. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, by comparison, had banked over $22 million, with only $3 million in debt."

Translation: The DCCC has $19 million while the NRCC is in the red, meaning the NRCC will be lucky to help vulnerable incumbents at most -- yet alone underfunded challengers in Democratic districts -- and even they acknowledge more loses of House seats are on the way for Republicans in 2008.

And if that wasn't bad enough...the unindicted co-conspirator (aka Roberts) has these additional eight hurdles that make his quest more like climbing Mt. Everest without supplemental oxygen on his first mountain climb ever. But there's plenty of time for Roberts to reconsidering the enormity of the challenge before him and get out before getting spanked.

Oh yeah, here's how the congressional delegation did:

	Raised QTR	Spent QTR	Raised Year	Spent Year	Cash-on-Hand
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$125,928	$27,609	$350,232	$150,992	$932,193
Lewis (R-KY2)	$107,915	$41,593	$376,293	$156,030	$312,993
Yarmuth (D-KY3)	$129,887	$54,330	$730,288	$252,132	$536,050
Davis (R-KY4)	$199,377	$97,772	$827,877	$438,678	$530,907
Rogers (R-KY5)	$78,090	$28,352	$148,849	$128,041	$1,007,224
Chandler (D-KY6)	$144,570	$22,609	$450,170	$71,572	$934,520

Seems that Lewis is tempting fate again with his very tepid fundraising. You'd think he'd learn by now. I suspect he'll have much more on his hands in 2008 than he did in 2006, and raising $100k per quarter with only $300k in the bank seems mighty, mighty foolish...

P.S. -- Just got my Article 1 button in the mail, along with a copy of the U.S. Constitution. Thanks much to the awesome Yarmuth staff. They rock.

KY3: Erwin Roberts (R) Evoking Sept 11th For His Long-Shot Candidacy?

Given the enormous mountain unindicted co-conspirator Erwin Roberts (R) will have to climb to defeat U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D), it seems that Roberts is adopting the Rudy Giuliani (R) campaign strategy -- evoke September 11th early and often.

From the Courier-Journal:

Erwin Roberts, who is hoping to unseat John Yarmuth as 3rd District congressman in next year's election, might be looking to the Republican-performing 4th District for help.

His campaign recently sent out an e-mail that said Roberts, the former state Homeland Security chief, had gone to Oldham County and spoken on Sept. 11 to the La Grange Rotary Club.

When the notebook saw him recently and asked if La Grange had been annexed into the 3rd District, he smiled and said, "No, anytime someone asked me to speak on Sept. 11 … I try to do it."

Also, you can make this item #9 on the massive hurdles before Roberts:

"At the end of August, the National Republican Congressional Committee reported only $1.6 million cash on hand, with $4 million in debt. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, by comparison, had banked over $22 million, with only $3 million in debt."

KY3: Erwin Roberts' (R) Fool's Errand

Not to dive too far into the 2008 cycle yet -- because I am so enjoying 2007 -- but I can't figure out for the life of me why former Fletcher Personnel Secretary -- and named unindicted co-conspirator -- Erwin Roberts (R) is seriously undertaking a race against U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) in the 3rd Congressional District. It amazes me that Roberts, who seems like a smart guy, thinks he has any shot at unseating Yarmuth next year.

Let's review the hurdles he must overcome to have any hopes of successfully climbing this Mt. Everest of a political race:

1. Unindicted Co-conspirator/5th Amendment. The fact that Roberts, as Personnel Secretary, was named an "unindicted co-conspirator" for his involvement in Governor Fletcher's (R) Merit System scandal -- and invoked the 5th Amendment before the grand jury -- seems an immediate disqualifier to me. How does a congressional candidate, running to join an institution so riddled with corruption of late (especially in his own party), get the voters to overlook these items?
          
2. Resignation Letter. When Roberts left the Fletcher Administration in May 2006, he tendered an especially glowing resignation letter to Fletcher which stated things like "It has been an honor to be part of bringing positive change to Kentucky under your leadership" and "it has always been clear to me that you care first and foremost about the great people of the commonwealth." Seriously. (Click here for the actual letter)
         
3. 3rd CD Demographics. Aside from the fact that Democrats maintain a 58-33 edge over Republicans in voter registration in the congressional district, the district preferred Al Gore (D) and John Kerry (D) while President Bush (R) won the state by 20 points. The fact that Anne Northup (R) won and held this seat appears much more than exception than the rule and she certainly benefited from a national Republican wave, aside from her tenacious campaign style and fundraising prowess.
                  
4. Democratic Governor. Assuming the lack of divine intervention in the next 42 days, Roberts will be running against a Democratic incumbent just as Steve Beshear (D) is elected governor by an expected landslide margin, not to mention expected huge victories by Auditor Crit Luallen (D), and Louisvillians Jack Conway (D) as attorney general and Todd Hollenbach (D) as treasurer. Those are pretty good re-inforcements for a incumbent to turn to for support.
             
5. National Tide. 2008 is shaping-up as another very bad year for Republicans. Aside from the presidency -- which is trending hard towards the Democrats in polling -- pundits like conservative columnist Robert Novak see an additional 5 to 8 seat loss in the U.S. Senate and doesn't rule-out that Democrats could pick a 9th seat and acquire a 60-seat filibuster-proof margin. Others believe that Republicans could lose another 20-30 House seats as well. And that's not even touching whether Senator McConnell (R) will find himself in a real race, ginning-up Louisville turnout and all the Democrats who would eagerly cast a vote against him. If 2004 was the high-tide to be running as a Republican, 2008 might be the low-tide.
            
6. Money, Money, Money. It's hard to overlook the financial issues in trying to unseat an incumbent, particularly when you don't have a stiff wind at your sails. In his first quarter, Roberts raised just $43,292 and has a cash balance of $25,749. Those are not the sort of fundraising numbers that create confidence in national parties, as $100k raised is regarded as the minimum threshold for challengers in their first quarter of fundraising. Meanwhile, Yarmuth has already raised $600,000 this year and has a cash balance of $455,979. And let's not forget that Yarmuth has the ability to write a check into his own account if ever necessary.
                   
7. Fletcher. Putting aside the unindicted co-conspirator thing, being associated with Fletcher is radioactive in Louisville. As we saw from last week's Bluegrass Poll, in just the 3rd Congressional District Fletcher trails by a staggering 68-17 margin, his favorable rating is just 11% while unfavorable is 67%, and just 7.6% believe he has cleaned-up the mess in Frankfort. Not good to be running on your accomplishments as Fletcher's personnel chief among such voters.
               
8. Seniority. And aside from all the things above, Roberts would have to convince Democratic voters to oust a Democratic incumbent who is a member of the Democratic-majority Congress while another Democrat likely sits in the Oval Office and replace him with a freshman Republican.

And nothing I wrote above even touches Roberts' politics, another potential problem for the Republican in the strongly Democratic district at a time when Democrats dominate the issue battery in the minds of Americans.

So why in the world would Erwin Roberts believe he could overcome any of these hurdles, yet alone all of them?

Seems like a fool's errand to me.

Follow The Money

If you're interested in knowing how Kentucky's federal delegation gets its bread buttered, MAPLight.org has an update on the campaign finance breakdown for each of our state's members for the most recently completed cycle.

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $250,047
ATTORNEY $122,100
PHYSICIAN $91,801
FARMER $74,860
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $62,700
SELF-EMPLOYED $42,850
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $41,250
HUMANA INC $38,877
GRIFFIN INDUSTRIES $38,800
PEABODY ENERGY $35,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $390,848
Retired $242,047
Security brokers & investment companies $234,949
Pro-Israel $173,735
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $168,550
Lobbyists & public relations $147,295
Farmers, in general $121,160
Hospitals $121,100
Physicians $115,177
Coal mining $108,600

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $184,175
ATTORNEY $62,770
PHYSICIAN $58,750
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,100
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS $20,000
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $17,050
ASHLAND INC $16,250
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $15,000
FARMER $13,750
RJ REYNOLDS TOBACCO $13,500

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $191,984
Retired $188,875
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $164,199
Security brokers & investment companies $130,243
Other physician specialists $125,800
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $117,949
Lobbyists & public relations $94,516
Physicians $81,750
Pro-Israel $64,900
Life insurance $61,083

U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers (R-KY5)

[organizations]
ATTORNEY $18,000
ADDINGTON ENTERPRISES $17,800
RETIRED $17,450
BEECHFORK PROCESSING $16,000
CONSULTANT $13,850
FIRST NATIONAL BANK $12,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
GEO GROUP $10,000
GENERAL ELECTRIC $10,000
LOCKHEED MARTIN $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $40,700
Engineers - type unknown $28,900
Lobbyists & public relations $25,400
Business services $25,050
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $21,000
Defense areospace contractors $21,000
Civil servant/public employee $20,750
Mining $20,000
Vegetables, fruits & tree nuts $18,900
Retired $17,450

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY4)

[organizations]
RETIRED $191,705
SELF-EMPLOYED $22,882
ATTORNEY $18,900
EMERALD COAL $16,500
INVESTOR $15,050
AMERICAN BANKERS ASSN $15,000
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $14,100
CNG FINANCIAL $12,700
CINTAS CORP $11,600
DRS TECHNOLOGIES $11,200

[interests]
Retired $191,705
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $91,727
Attorneys & law firms $85,900
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $70,550
Credit agencies & finance companies $53,550
Lobbyists & public relations $52,603
Security brokers & investment companies $49,432
Residential construction $41,800
Coal mining $39,050
Mortgage bankers & brokers $37,550

U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R-KY2)

[organizations]
SELF-EMPLOYED $52,607
RETIRED $38,010
PHYSICIAN $24,060
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,350
ATTORNEY $14,800
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $14,499
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $10,250
AMERICAN PHYSICAL THERAPY ASSN $10,000
AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSN $10,000
PINKERTON TOBACCO $10,000

[interests]
General commerce $57,707
Tobacco & tobacco products $46,850
Physicians $41,060
Retired $38,010
Hospitals $36,600
Other physician specialists $33,450
Attorneys & law firms $31,150
Wine & distilled spirits manufacturing $28,077
Lobbyists & public relations $27,494
Accident & health insurance $21,500

U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield (R-KY1)

[organizations]
RETIRED $33,350
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $21,250
PHYSICIAN $21,200
AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP $12,250
NATIONAL CABLE & TELECOMMUNICATIONS ASSN $11,000
AT&T INC $10,000
UNION PACIFIC CORP $10,000
PFIZER INC $10,000
WINE & SPIRITS WHOLESALERS OF AMERICA $10,000
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,000

[interests]
Other physician specialists $76,785
Pharmaceutical manufacturing $38,752
Telephone utilities $35,000
Retired $33,350
Physicians $33,200
Attorneys & law firms $32,100
Railroads $25,600
Tobacco & tobacco products $23,500
Pharmaceutical wholesale $21,250
Liquor wholesalers $20,500

U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (R-KY6)

[organizations]
RETIRED $37,600
ATTORNEY $19,300
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,500
INTL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS $10,000
NATIONAL ASSN OF REALTORS $10,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
NATIONAL AUTO DEALERS ASSN $10,000
IRONWORKERS UNION $10,000
TEAMSTERS UNION $10,000
FARM CREDIT COUNCIL $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $69,924
Construction unions $49,000
Retired $37,600
Manufacturing unions $30,000
Air transport unions $18,700
Farmers, in general $18,550
Express delivery services $15,499
Restaurants & drinking establishments $15,450
Liquor wholesalers $15,000
Banks & lending institutions $14,900

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY3)
No data yet

Not To Be Picky...But There Was That "Unindicted Co-Conspirator" Thingee...(And Invoking The 5th Amendment)

Funny, but whoever pitched CQ Politics on this puff piece about former Personnel Secretary Erwin Roberts (R) taking his first step to challenge U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) next year conveniently left out the part about Roberts being the Personnel Secretary during the Fletcher Administration's hiring scandal and him being named an unindicted co-conspirator during that investigation.

Kinda odd that between being the mention of his 2004 stint as state homeland security director and his 2006 departure from the administration was nary a word of all the stuff that happened in 2005 and 2006 culminating in his unindicted co-conspirator status. In fact, the story mentions the scandal in the context of Governor Fletcher (R) but nothing about Roberts' own intimate involvement whatsoever.

Someone might want to let the CQ's writer, Greg Giroux, know that he either got spun badly or didn't do his homework before writing this puff piece. Either way, it's pretty sloppy and I'm certain Yarmuth is smiling at the idea that Roberts might be his opponent.

Yarmuth’s Job Security Gets Test From Kentucky’s Ex-Homeland Security Chief
By Greg Giroux, CQ Politics

Political campaigning rarely takes time off in Kentucky, which holds its elections for governor in odd-numbered years. And most of the attention in Kentucky politics currently is focused on the battle between incumbent Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher and Democrat Steve Beshear, a former lieutenant governor, that was set up by their victories in the May 22 primary.

Yet even as Fletcher and Beshear gear up for their general election campaigns, some candidates are preparing for next year’s congressional elections in Kentucky. One of the latest of these is Republican lawyer Erwin Roberts, who is vying to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. John A. Yarmuth in the Louisville-centered 3rd District.

Last Wednesday — a day after the gubernatorial primary — Roberts filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to formally organize his campaign against Yarmuth, who last year ousted five-term Republican Rep. Anne M. Northup. Northup sought a comeback by challenging Fletcher in the recent GOP primary for governor, but was defeated.

Roberts is a former federal prosecutor with a background in homeland security. He joined Fletcher’s administration in March 2004 as Kentucky’s first homeland security director, and later served as Fletcher’s Secretary of the Personnel Cabinet. He left in June 2006 and is now counsel to the Louisville law firm of Frost Brown Todd.

Earlier this year, Roberts endorsed Northup for governor over Fletcher, who has poor approval ratings in part because of a merit-hiring scandal.

The Kentucky 3rd District contest also is notable in that Roberts, who is African-American, is seeking a seat in a chamber that presently has no black Republicans. Ken Spain, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), praised Roberts as “an incredibly talented individual.”

“We’re extremely excited about his candidacy,” Spain said of Roberts, who recently attended the NRCC’s candidate training school in Washington...

Update (5:42 pm): Tom Loftus reminded me in his post one other item about Roberts that I omitted, namely that he was one of those Fletcher Administration officials that invoked his 5th Amendment rights during the hiring investigation and refused to testify before the grand jury about corruption at the highest level.

So, the congressional wannabee was not only an unindicted co-conspirator, but he also refused to testify about political corruption by invoking his right against self-incrimination. Maybe those career highlights were sufficient for a candidate between 1994 and 2006, but something tells me Louisville voters are looking for a little more than just a resume.

Former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R) said it best a few months ago:

She said Fletcher's decision to take the Fifth Amendment, rather than testify before the grand jury investigating his administration's personnel practices in August 2005, sent the wrong message to Kentuckians.

"I ask you to compare that to the current president, when there was the Scooter Libby trial, whose top people went down there and testified, testified, testified," she said. "Kentuckians have said in every way they can, that (taking the Fifth Amendment) is not acceptable."

Indeed.

State Treasurer's Race

The one campaign that I've heard nothing about during this election season is the Democratic primary for State Treasurer. We've heard plenty from the four-way race on Republican side (which includes three state representatives), but little from the two major Democratic candidates: former State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) and Todd Hollenbach, IV (D).

While it seemed that Weaver had the natural advantage heading into the primary, given his years in the legislature and congressional race against U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R), I'm not so sure that Weaver is the clear favorite any longer.

One thing about Weaver that really concerns me is his seeming inability to adequately fundraise. That was his clear Achilles' Heel during last year's congressional bid when he raised less than $900,000 for a bid that received national attention (Lewis spent $2 million). In contrast, both John Yarmuth (D) and Ken Lucas (D) raised $1.5 million each for their campaigns (Yarmuth added another $700,000 in personal loans). Even Tony Miller (D) raised $1.2 million in 2004 when Anne Northup (R) defeated him by more than 20 points.

So, how is Weaver doing in fundraising so far?

According to his just filed campaign finance report, Weaver has raised only $10,491 to date, compared $37,899 for Hollenbach. On the Republican side, two of the four candidates have reported so far. Lonnie Napier (R) raised $89,310 and Melinda Wheeler (R) raised $53,920. (See Pol Watchers for the breakdown.)

Weaver's residual name ID alone may win him the nomination. But given his continued struggle to raise adequate money, would Democrats be making a mistake electing him as the nominee to face Republicans in the fall who, apparently, aren't having those same problems?

It concerns me.

Fundraising

Last week, we learned that Senator McConnell (R) has raised nearly $6 million for his 2008 re-election.

So, I thought I'd take a look at our other federal officials.

Senator Bunning (R) raised $45,445 during the 1st quarter of 2007, leaving him with a cash balance of $113,607. So far, he's raised $256,527 toward his 2010 re-election.

Here's how the state's U.S. House members are doing:

Member	Q1 2007 Raised	Q1 2007 Spent	Cash-On-Hand
Davis (R-KY4)	$317,479	$144,531	$239,720
Yarmuth (D-KY3)	$303,892	$37,249	$292,695
Chandler (D-KY6)	$140,221	$21,686	$708,648
Lewis (R-KY2)	$110,040	$14,530	$153,072
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$56,950	$52,840	$692,987
Rogers (R-KY5)	$16,000	$46,923	$988,196

Both Davis and Yarmuth are aggressively raising funds for their 2008 re-election, though Davis' campaign finance reports shows he spent about $90,000 in various "Direct Mail Expenses."  I'm a little surprised by Lewis' paltry showing given that he should expect another serious challenge next year.

By the way for comparison, here's where things stood two years ago after the 1st quarter of 2005 filing:

Member	Q1 2005 Raised	Q1 2005 Spent	Cash-On-Hand
Northup (R-KY3)	$385,506	$37,375	$390,321
Davis (R-KY4)	$274,067	$102,895	$283,809
Chandler(D-KY6)	$123,888	$55,160	$240,021
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$96,396	$40,696	$751,123
Lewis (R-KY2)	$16,468	$29,109	$314,770
Rogers (R-KY5)	$11,000	$55,490	$896,489

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) Not On Karl Rove's Top 20 Target List For 2008

TPMmuckraker has the skinny on a presentation that Karl Rove's deputy (Kentucky's own Scott Jennings) gave to personnel of the General Services Administration (GSA) staff earlier this year and was produced in conjunction with congressional testimony today by its top official. The presentation reveals a number of particularly relevant Kentucky-specific items.

First, one page of Rove's power point was entitled "2008 House Targets: Top 20" and not included on that list was U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D). That's right, John is not considered by Rove as one of their Top 20 targets in 2008. All three of the Indiana seats that Democrats flipped last year are listed, but not Yarmuth.

Here's that page (click image for larger version):

However, U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) is named on another Rove chart entitled "2008 House GOP Defense" under the column "Secondary Defense". No other Kentucky House seats are mentioned in the presentation.

Additionally, in discussing where the ground game worked and didn't work in 2006 House races, it reveals interesting information concerning KY3 (Northup) and KY4 (Davis).

Apparently, the final polls taken in the 2006 races showed that Anne Northup (R) had a 13-point lead over John Yarmuth (D) (50% to 37%), but lost that race by two points. Meanwhile, Geoff Davis (R) was leading Ken Lucas (D) by just 1-point (44% to 43%) but won his race by seven points.

By the way, the underlying testimony regarding Jennings' efforts with GSA officials is pretty sketchy as well as I suspect we haven't heard the last of it. Seems that Mr. Jennings is finding himself in the national news a little more than he'd like. Recall this recent development.

Here's what TPMmuckraker wrote:

After the presentation, Doan reportedly asked other employees how the agency could help "our candidates." The GSA, remember, is the government's procurement agency, in charge of almost $60 billion each year. All of this seems like a clear violation of the Hatch Act, which prohibits using federal resources to aid political parties.

Click here for Rove's entire 13-page presentation.

Think Progress has great coverage as well.

John Yarmuth (D) and "The Way Down South"

Bob Moser just published a very interesting assessment of whether Democrats can reclaim the South in the latest edition of The Nation.

In it, Moser highlights how U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) became the lone Southern congressional candidate the national Democrats didn't want to support (because his strategy and positions didn't fit their mold of the type of Democrat that could win in the South) but who went on to win his race.

The whole piece is a terrific read, but here's the portion concerning John's victory:

But Dean's approach--both in his campaign and with his new "fifty-state strategy" for the DNC--was hardly a hit with white national party leaders, who complained bitterly about the expense of hiring Democratic organizers, in the words of ex-Clinton adviser Paul Begala, to "wander around Utah and Mississippi and pick their nose." In the 2006 midterms, national Democratic campaign committees shunned the fifty-state approach and backed only a handful of Democrats in the South. The chosen Southerners fit the "Republican Lite" mold to a T: social conservatives who emphasized "fiscal responsibility" and steered clear of calling for troop withdrawals in Iraq. The ideal Southern campaign, agreed Begala and his ilk, was Harold Ford Jr.'s lavishly financed Senate bid in Tennessee. Aiming to "out-Republican" his opponent, Ford spent the campaign bashing "illegals," waving the flag, ridiculing the very notion of gay marriage and calling up a quote from the Bible to address every issue.

Ford's loss was widely chalked up to race-baiting attack ads run by the Republican National Committee. But his defeat--like those of all but one of the Democrats' chosen candidates in the South last year--can also be viewed as a lesson in the limitations of Clintonian compromise. So can the results from the border South state of Kentucky, where self-described "liberal" John Yarmuth--whose pleas for national funds fell on deaf ears--pulled off a startling upset in the state's 3rd Congressional District by running a campaign that was the antithesis of Ford's. "The mistake Democrats have made here over the years is that they never provided a sharp contrast," says Yarmuth, who bested five-term Republican incumbent Anne Northup. "I said from day one, 'Anne and I are 180 degrees apart. If she believes something, I don't.' I was that clear. I wanted the voters to have a real choice and see where they'd go." They went with the frank-talking, antiwar, labor-loving candidate his own party considered too "liberal" to win. Meanwhile, the two party-funded challengers in Kentucky, both staunch social conservatives aiming to join the Blue Dog Coalition in Congress, got their clocks cleaned. "There's a Beltway mentality that succumbs too much to conventional punditry," says Yarmuth. "The voters are way ahead of the Democrats and way ahead of Washington."

Say what you will about John's politics, but his refusal to smooth-over differences with Northup so as to not alienate some more conservative Democrats was an exceptionally smart, and ballsy, move. John offered the voters a very clear contrast and didn't try to sugar-coat his positions or embrace some aspects of the war in Iraq out of some fear that he would be perceived as anti-military.

Contrast that to the campaign of former U.S. Rep. Ken Lucas (D) who said the war was a mistake but refused to offer any meaningful difference on how to proceed with his opponent U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R). Lucas lost to Davis by eight points.

While I admit it's not fair to compare the voters of Yarmuth's swing district to those in Lucas' conservative district, I do think Lucas hurt himself by not offering a clear contrast on the war. I can't help but conclude that the 5% that the libertarian candidate (Brian Houillion) got in the 4th Congressional District was largely the result of the anti-war voters feeling like they had no real option. In contrast, the two third-party candidates in the 3rd Congressional District received a total of 1.2%, less than one-fourth of Houillion's support, in race where voters had a clear anti-war option among the major party candidates.

Anyway, I encourage you to read the whole piece.

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) Joins With 18 Freshmen Democrats To Oppose Iraq Surge In Letter To President Bush

Yesterday, U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) released the contents of a letter that he and 18 other freshmen House Democrats sent to President Bush opposing the escalation in Iraq. (The Courier-Journal has a story as well).

Click jump-link below for the text of the letter:

Lt. Col. Andrew Horne (D) Featured In National Television Ad By Vets To Stop The Escalation

If you haven't seen it, 3rd District congressional candidate and Marine Lt. Colonel Andrew Horne (D) is one of the veterans featured in a national television commercial by VoteVets.org called Stop the Escalation:

What It Means To Be A Bruce Lunsford Democrat

Amazing. This just popped up in the latest campaign finance report. I had missed it before.

Is this what Bruce Lunsford (D) meant when he said today that he's lived his life as a Democrat since his 2003 endorsement of Ernie Fletcher (R)?

This was a month before the 2006 election.

What a joke.

Thank You, John Yarmuth

Jim Pence over at Hillbilly Report does a fine job of capturing the gratitude of those living in Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District at this morning's rally in Louisville which commemorated the successful completion of the U.S. House of Representative's first 100 hours and the work of U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D):

I, too, say thanks to Congressman Yarmuth.

House Easily Passes First Piece Of 100-Hour Program -- Anti-Terror Legislation

The House has easily passed, by a 299-128 margin, legislation to implement the 9/11 Commission Recommendations. It was the first vote on the Democratic majority's 100-hour program.

While both U.S. Reps. Ben Chandler (D) and John Yarmuth (D) voted for the resolution, the other four (Republican) members of the Kentucky House delegation voted against it.

It's shameful how truly out-of-touch Hal Rogers, Geoff Davis, Ed Whitfield and Ron Lewis are with their rank partisanship and their votes against implementing the bi-partisan 9/11 Commission. Absurd.

By the way, I'm certain these Bluegrass wingnuts will be happily supporting the Bush Administration's call for an additional 21,500 troops to go into Iraq (17,500 for Baghdad and 4,000 for Anbar Province).

Shades of Blue (LEO)

My LEO column this week takes a look at how the political pendulum is beginning to swing back here in Kentucky and that Kentucky isn't looking nearly as red as it did two years ago...

Bluegrass Politics: Shades of Blue
By Mark Nickolas (LEO)

If November’s election of John Yarmuth (D) to the U.S. Congress wasn’t a clear enough sign that Kentucky’s political pendulum had finally begun swinging back to the Democratic column, then last week’s legislative leadership and committee elections in Frankfort should leave little doubt.

Last Tuesday, House Democrats shunned more conservative members and elected two moderates to leadership: Rep. Rob Wilkey (D-Scottsville) as whip and Rep. Charlie Hoffman (D-Georgetown) as caucus chairman. Days later, that newly reconstituted House leadership sent a clear signal that change was upon us when it elevated three women and one African American to the ranks of committee chairs, even naming one of its most liberal members, Rep. Kathy Stein (D-Lexington), to chair the powerful House Judiciary Committee.

It was impossible to miss how dramatically, and improbably, Kentucky’s political landscape has changed in just two years, considering how methodically the Republican Party amassed power for more than a decade.

To pinpoint the genesis of the 12-year Republican bull run, many observers cite the upset victory of political neophyte Ron Lewis (R) in a 1994 congressional special election after the death of U.S. Rep. William Natcher (D). Later that year, former State Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) joined Lewis in Congress by defeating U.S. Rep. Tom Barlow (D), and Republicans unseated three incumbent Democratic state senators. And by most accounts, 1994 was the first clear muscle-flexing of Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R) emerging political machine.

For the next 10 years, Kentucky Republicans methodically gained ground on Democrats and began dismantling their political fortresses: holding both U.S. Senate seats by 1998; taking the State Senate in 1999; and finally taking back the governor’s mansion in 2003, ending a 32-year drought. By the end of 2004, Kentucky was a barren wasteland for Democrats.

That year, incumbent U.S. Rep. Anne Northup defeated Democrat Tony Miller by 22 points in Louisville, while President Bush won Kentucky by 20 points. The Democrats’ majority in the State House shrunk to 57-43 following the loss of seven seats, and after the defection of another member to the GOP in 2005, Republicans had their most House seats since 1944.

It seemed little could stop the Republicanization of Kentucky, now certifiably a “red state.”

But if Kentucky Republicans flourished following the personal failings of President Bill Clinton (D) and Gov. Paul Patton (D), the party’s unraveling came about because of the public failings of President George W. Bush (R) and Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R).

(click here to keep reading column)

What A Surprise: More Kentucky Republican Whining

Seems that Kentucky Republicans still can't get over the fact that voters kicked former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R) out of office and continue to whine about it nationally, demonstrating that they are still in denial for the punishment they received for taking the country in the wrong direction.

Here's their latest whine in today's The Hill:

The chairman of the Jefferson County GOP, Jack Richardson IV, said Louisville continues to be a conservative city, and that Yarmuth’s election was less about the two candidates than a poisoned national environment.

Richardson said voters in the district are reeling from “a case of buyer’s remorse” despite the brevity of Yarmuth’s six-day-old tenure.

“Voters wanted to throw a tantrum to send a message,” Richardson said. “[But] it’s kind of like when you sober up the next day and you get a hangover and you say, ‘What in the world did I do?’”

Richardson said Yarmuth, a wealthy alternative-newspaper publisher, will be “just another rich kid on the block” in Washington who will come to find the congressional workload interferes with his golf game.

“Jack Richardson has about as much credibility as President Bush,” Yarmuth said. “I’ll have at least a year and a half to demonstrate my commitment