BluegrassReport.org

Kentucky's Clear Blue Shift

One of the recent signs that have made more predict that U.S. Sen. McConnell (R) is in for a rougher re-election fight than expected is the fact that President Bush's (R) job approval numbers in Kentucky have plummeted to a disastrously low 35% approve and 65% disapprove.

Indeed, those numbers do suggest that the man who has proudly defended and advanced the Bush agenda ought to be very concerned. But a closer look at those numbers tell an even more problematic story for McConnell.

You see, while Bush is becoming less popular in Kentucky, he's also getting less popular in the other 49 states, so simply using Bush's plunging numbers in Kentucky only tell part of the story. But where things are much more instructive is to see where Bush has dropped more than elsewhere over the past few years.

When you do that, you'll notice that in only one state (New Mexico) has Bush's job performance tumbled more than it has in Kentucky -- among those states which SurveyUSA has been testing monthly since May 2005 -- when you compare the differences in President Bush's net rating (approval minus disapproval):

State	Nov 2007	May 2005	Diff
New Mexico	-35 (32/67)	-4 (46/50)	-31
Kentucky	-27 (35/62)	+2 (49/47)	-29
California	-44 (26/70)	-15 (39/54)	-29
New York	-54 (22/76)	-25 (35/60)	-29
Minnesota	-30 (34/64)	-2 (47/49)	-28
Massachusetts	-54 (22/76)	-26 (35/61)	-28
Virginia	-32 (33/65)	-6 (44/50)	-26
Kansas	-21 (38/59)	+4 (49/45)	-25
Washington	-35 (31/66)	-10 (42/52)	-25
Oregon	-36 (31/67)	-13 (42/55)	-23
Alabama	-16 (41/57)	+6 (50/44)	-22
Wisconsin	-33 (32/65)	-12 (42/54)	-21
Missouri	-28 (35/63)	-10 (42/52)	-18
Iowa	-33 (32/65)	-17 (39/56)	-16
Ohio	-29 (34/63)	-20 (38/58)	-9
AVERAGE	-33.8	-9.9	-23.9

That - along with the plummeting of new Kentucky Republican voters over the past two years and this month's landslide defeat of Governor Fletcher (R) -- really paints a picture that a political realignment is happening here in a noticeable way and these dynamics couldn't be happening to McConnell at a worse time.

Does that lead me to believe that Kentucky is becoming a Democratic state again? No, I wouldn't go that far.

But I do believe these trends tell us that Kentucky is much more politically comparable to the Midwest swing states than it is to the South, which is how the state seemed to behave for much of the past decade, until around 2005 when we began to see a subtle but steady change in the political attitudes of Kentucky voters, leading to John Yarmuth's (D) defeat of Anne Northup (R) in the 3rd congressional district and this year's defeat of Fletcher and plunging approval numbers for McConnell.

This is why McConnell should be even more concerned and why the environment is right for a serious challenge of both U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis' (R) and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield's (R) congressional seat, as well as the take-back of the state Senate.

(Note: While SurveyUSA has conducted monthly Bush approval tracking in the states since May 2005, about a year ago it narrowed its month survey from all 50 states to 15 states, which is why the above chart only lists those states.)

KY-2: Dirty Tricks Already Underway, But From Republicans Or Democrats?

With six months until the primary election and a year until the general election, the scummy and dishonest smear efforts are already underway in the 2nd Congressional District race where State Sen. David Boswell (D) and probably Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire (D) hope to defeat U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R).

While we know that Republicans have no problem force-feeding slime to the voters (recall the pathetic robo-calls in the final days of their recent landslide gubernatorial defeat), it's hard to believe they'd start doing so against one candidate in what shapes-up to be a competitive primary election.

While I'm not accusing Haire's camp, I will say if you forced me to place a five dollar wager on this being either the Republicans or Haire supporters, I wouldn't pick the Republicans. I hope I'm wrong. I tilt that way because of all the talk that Haire is furious that Boswell got in the race as he did and Republicans simply would not benefit from one primary candidate quickly falling behind in a competitive race. The GOP would most certainly want a tight, hard-fought, bloody and expensive contest until the bitter end, and a Boswell-Haire match-up pretty much ensures that.

(Note: I have zero preference in the outcome of the Democratic primary, as I simply want to defeat Lewis).

From yesterday's Owensboro Messenger-Inquirer:

Bumper Stickers Target Boswell
Anonymous stickers question candidacy
By Owen Covington, Messenger-Inquirer

When state Sen. David Boswell wanted to test the waters this summer for a possible run for Congress, he distributed 1,000 bumper stickers with "Boswell '08" around Kentucky's 2nd District.

...But in recent weeks, "Boswell '08" bumper stickers of a different breed have been appearing in Daviess County.

Yellow and black stickers containing eight different messages questioning Boswell's possible candidacy have been sent by mail to local elected officials, business leaders and the Messenger-Inquirer.

The bumper stickers have arrived in a plain white envelope with no return address and no indication from where or by whom they have been sent.

The mock campaign stickers peg Boswell as a frequent candidate for different offices despite the fact Boswell has not run for any other office since joining the state Senate in 1991.

Boswell did consider a run first for governor and then lieutenant governor earlier this year. During his nearly 30 years in public service, he has served in the state House of Representatives and as state agricultural commissioner, and made a failed attempt to become lieutenant governor in 1987.

Boswell said he has not seen the bumper stickers but has heard about them and has decided that someone must be trying to scare him away from running for Congress next year.

"That is an underhanded campaign tactic," Boswell said. "Apparently someone's afraid of what I'm looking at doing here."

...Daviess Judge-Executive Reid Haire, a Democrat who is also considering a congressional run next year, said he is not behind the stickers and approached Boswell after he received one of the bumper stickers in the mail.

Just my two cents...

UPDATE (9:47 AM): One other thing, in Wednesday's story in Roll Call (subscription-only) on Lewis dispelling rumors here on BGR that he wasn't running for re-election contained this interesting comment from Haire:

“We’re probably going to go to Frankfort to sit down with Gov.-elect Steve Beshear’s people as well as officials in the state Democratic Party and begin ironing out and looking at the positives and negatives and challenges that each of us would face in the coming months with regards to raising money and waging a successful campaign,” Haire said. “Hopefully ... one of us will decide that it probably is not in his best interest to run for that office and throw his support to the other.”

This doesn't prove anything but does seem noteworthy. While I have no preference who wins the primary, I have little patience for such cowardly and anonymous tactics and sure hope idiot Republicans were behind them and not another Democrat.

KY-2: Is U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) About To Step-Down From His House Seat And Not Seek Re-Election?

UPDATE (1:50 PM): One prominent Republican in the district who I trust a great deal says Lewis is running and will be filing papers next week. The sale of the homes were just a coincidence. So, I suspect we can put this one to rest.

While political rumors are a dime a dozen, there is some reason to wonder whether there's something to this one.

Apparently, there is a lot of chatter that U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) is planning to step down from his seat and not run for re-election this year, and instead plans to move to Florida. This rumor is based on two sources from Lewis' area. Somewhat corroborative is the fact that Lewis' home in Cecilia, KY is for sale, as is his late father's home also in Cecilia. Furthermore, the talk is that Senator McConnell (R) wants Hardin County Judge-Executive Harry Berry (R) (Anne Northup's (R) campaign treasurer during her gubernatorial bid) to run for Lewis' seat.

A couple of things.

First, I have confirmed that Lewis' home in Cecilia is indeed for sale for $689,000. Hornback Realty Company in Elizabethtown is the listing agent. Here's the listing (by the way, click here to see that it matches-up with Lewis' address):

(click image for larger version of the listing)

Also, it seems that a sale is pending (click here) on Lewis' father's house (apparently he passed away last year). Is this a sign that Lewis is liquidating his Kentucky assets?

Also, while Lewis has never been much of a fundraiser, he's only been raising an average of just $125,000 in each of the past three quarters, even though he should have every reason to believe he's going to have a legitimate challenge again this cycle. Through the third-quarter, Lewis has just $312,000 of cash-on-hand.

While none of this proves the rumor that Lewis isn't running for re-election, it is nonetheless noteworthy and gives the rumor some credence.

P.S. -- On a related note, Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire (D) is also talking about challenging for Lewis' seat (the story is in today's Owensboro Messenger-Inquirer, which is subscription-only). Yesterday, we discussed how State Sen. David Boswell (D) announced that he plans to run.

P.P.S. -- Regardless of whether Lewis retires or not, keep in mind that Gov.-elect Beshear (D) won 18 of the 21 counties this congressional district spans, losing only Grayson (51-48), Taylor (53-47) and Green (57-43). No doubt it's a very conservative district, but the voters are indeed open-minded to good Democrats.

KY2: It's (Almost) Official -- Boswell To Challenge Lewis

Music to my ears...looks like we have a top-tier challenger for one congressional seat as State Sen. David Boswell (D) appears ready to challenge the very unimpressive and beatable U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) for his 2nd Congressional District seat:

Democratic State Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro said he is planning a press conference "in the very, very near future" to officially announce his candidacy to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecilia.

"I do plan to run for the U.S. Congress in the 2nd District," Boswell said yesterday. "I think people, overall, are ready for change. They're ready for a new guard."

Boswell, who was agriculture commissioner from 1984 to 1988 and has been a senator since 1991, said the win by fellow Democrat Steve Beshear in Tuesday's governor's race gives him and other potential candidates for next year's election a huge boost.

Now we need to find candidates in the 1st, 4th, and why not take a shot in the 5th, even if it's an enormous longshot?

Aside from never knowing what can happen in a political election, why not aggressively challenge all seats instead of effectively conceding them? I'm sure we can find a young local lawyer in the district that would be willing to take the plunge and get some political hands-on experience.

The Silver Lining: There's Still Time To Drop-Out...

Third quarter congressional fundraising numbers are out, and despite former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R) hosting a big fundraiser for him last month, it seems that Erwin Roberts' (R) fundraising leaves a lot to be desired in his quixotic quest to knock-off U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) in one of the worst possible years for a Republican challenger to try to defeat a Democratic incumbent in a majority Democratic district.

	Raised QTR	Raised Year	Cash-on-Hand
Yarmuth (D)	$129,887	$730,288	$536,050
Roberts (R)	$67,923	$111,215	$63,900

Making things worse for Roberts is how the NRCC is broke:

"At the end of August, the National Republican Congressional Committee reported only $1.6 million cash on hand, with $4 million in debt. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, by comparison, had banked over $22 million, with only $3 million in debt."

Translation: The DCCC has $19 million while the NRCC is in the red, meaning the NRCC will be lucky to help vulnerable incumbents at most -- yet alone underfunded challengers in Democratic districts -- and even they acknowledge more loses of House seats are on the way for Republicans in 2008.

And if that wasn't bad enough...the unindicted co-conspirator (aka Roberts) has these additional eight hurdles that make his quest more like climbing Mt. Everest without supplemental oxygen on his first mountain climb ever. But there's plenty of time for Roberts to reconsidering the enormity of the challenge before him and get out before getting spanked.

Oh yeah, here's how the congressional delegation did:

	Raised QTR	Spent QTR	Raised Year	Spent Year	Cash-on-Hand
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$125,928	$27,609	$350,232	$150,992	$932,193
Lewis (R-KY2)	$107,915	$41,593	$376,293	$156,030	$312,993
Yarmuth (D-KY3)	$129,887	$54,330	$730,288	$252,132	$536,050
Davis (R-KY4)	$199,377	$97,772	$827,877	$438,678	$530,907
Rogers (R-KY5)	$78,090	$28,352	$148,849	$128,041	$1,007,224
Chandler (D-KY6)	$144,570	$22,609	$450,170	$71,572	$934,520

Seems that Lewis is tempting fate again with his very tepid fundraising. You'd think he'd learn by now. I suspect he'll have much more on his hands in 2008 than he did in 2006, and raising $100k per quarter with only $300k in the bank seems mighty, mighty foolish...

P.S. -- Just got my Article 1 button in the mail, along with a copy of the U.S. Constitution. Thanks much to the awesome Yarmuth staff. They rock.

Follow The Money

If you're interested in knowing how Kentucky's federal delegation gets its bread buttered, MAPLight.org has an update on the campaign finance breakdown for each of our state's members for the most recently completed cycle.

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $250,047
ATTORNEY $122,100
PHYSICIAN $91,801
FARMER $74,860
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $62,700
SELF-EMPLOYED $42,850
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $41,250
HUMANA INC $38,877
GRIFFIN INDUSTRIES $38,800
PEABODY ENERGY $35,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $390,848
Retired $242,047
Security brokers & investment companies $234,949
Pro-Israel $173,735
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $168,550
Lobbyists & public relations $147,295
Farmers, in general $121,160
Hospitals $121,100
Physicians $115,177
Coal mining $108,600

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $184,175
ATTORNEY $62,770
PHYSICIAN $58,750
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,100
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS $20,000
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $17,050
ASHLAND INC $16,250
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $15,000
FARMER $13,750
RJ REYNOLDS TOBACCO $13,500

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $191,984
Retired $188,875
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $164,199
Security brokers & investment companies $130,243
Other physician specialists $125,800
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $117,949
Lobbyists & public relations $94,516
Physicians $81,750
Pro-Israel $64,900
Life insurance $61,083

U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers (R-KY5)

[organizations]
ATTORNEY $18,000
ADDINGTON ENTERPRISES $17,800
RETIRED $17,450
BEECHFORK PROCESSING $16,000
CONSULTANT $13,850
FIRST NATIONAL BANK $12,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
GEO GROUP $10,000
GENERAL ELECTRIC $10,000
LOCKHEED MARTIN $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $40,700
Engineers - type unknown $28,900
Lobbyists & public relations $25,400
Business services $25,050
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $21,000
Defense areospace contractors $21,000
Civil servant/public employee $20,750
Mining $20,000
Vegetables, fruits & tree nuts $18,900
Retired $17,450

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY4)

[organizations]
RETIRED $191,705
SELF-EMPLOYED $22,882
ATTORNEY $18,900
EMERALD COAL $16,500
INVESTOR $15,050
AMERICAN BANKERS ASSN $15,000
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $14,100
CNG FINANCIAL $12,700
CINTAS CORP $11,600
DRS TECHNOLOGIES $11,200

[interests]
Retired $191,705
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $91,727
Attorneys & law firms $85,900
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $70,550
Credit agencies & finance companies $53,550
Lobbyists & public relations $52,603
Security brokers & investment companies $49,432
Residential construction $41,800
Coal mining $39,050
Mortgage bankers & brokers $37,550

U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R-KY2)

[organizations]
SELF-EMPLOYED $52,607
RETIRED $38,010
PHYSICIAN $24,060
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,350
ATTORNEY $14,800
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $14,499
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $10,250
AMERICAN PHYSICAL THERAPY ASSN $10,000
AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSN $10,000
PINKERTON TOBACCO $10,000

[interests]
General commerce $57,707
Tobacco & tobacco products $46,850
Physicians $41,060
Retired $38,010
Hospitals $36,600
Other physician specialists $33,450
Attorneys & law firms $31,150
Wine & distilled spirits manufacturing $28,077
Lobbyists & public relations $27,494
Accident & health insurance $21,500

U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield (R-KY1)

[organizations]
RETIRED $33,350
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $21,250
PHYSICIAN $21,200
AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP $12,250
NATIONAL CABLE & TELECOMMUNICATIONS ASSN $11,000
AT&T INC $10,000
UNION PACIFIC CORP $10,000
PFIZER INC $10,000
WINE & SPIRITS WHOLESALERS OF AMERICA $10,000
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,000

[interests]
Other physician specialists $76,785
Pharmaceutical manufacturing $38,752
Telephone utilities $35,000
Retired $33,350
Physicians $33,200
Attorneys & law firms $32,100
Railroads $25,600
Tobacco & tobacco products $23,500
Pharmaceutical wholesale $21,250
Liquor wholesalers $20,500

U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (R-KY6)

[organizations]
RETIRED $37,600
ATTORNEY $19,300
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,500
INTL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS $10,000
NATIONAL ASSN OF REALTORS $10,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
NATIONAL AUTO DEALERS ASSN $10,000
IRONWORKERS UNION $10,000
TEAMSTERS UNION $10,000
FARM CREDIT COUNCIL $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $69,924
Construction unions $49,000
Retired $37,600
Manufacturing unions $30,000
Air transport unions $18,700
Farmers, in general $18,550
Express delivery services $15,499
Restaurants & drinking establishments $15,450
Liquor wholesalers $15,000
Banks & lending institutions $14,900

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY3)
No data yet

State Treasurer's Race

The one campaign that I've heard nothing about during this election season is the Democratic primary for State Treasurer. We've heard plenty from the four-way race on Republican side (which includes three state representatives), but little from the two major Democratic candidates: former State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) and Todd Hollenbach, IV (D).

While it seemed that Weaver had the natural advantage heading into the primary, given his years in the legislature and congressional race against U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R), I'm not so sure that Weaver is the clear favorite any longer.

One thing about Weaver that really concerns me is his seeming inability to adequately fundraise. That was his clear Achilles' Heel during last year's congressional bid when he raised less than $900,000 for a bid that received national attention (Lewis spent $2 million). In contrast, both John Yarmuth (D) and Ken Lucas (D) raised $1.5 million each for their campaigns (Yarmuth added another $700,000 in personal loans). Even Tony Miller (D) raised $1.2 million in 2004 when Anne Northup (R) defeated him by more than 20 points.

So, how is Weaver doing in fundraising so far?

According to his just filed campaign finance report, Weaver has raised only $10,491 to date, compared $37,899 for Hollenbach. On the Republican side, two of the four candidates have reported so far. Lonnie Napier (R) raised $89,310 and Melinda Wheeler (R) raised $53,920. (See Pol Watchers for the breakdown.)

Weaver's residual name ID alone may win him the nomination. But given his continued struggle to raise adequate money, would Democrats be making a mistake electing him as the nominee to face Republicans in the fall who, apparently, aren't having those same problems?

It concerns me.

Fundraising

Last week, we learned that Senator McConnell (R) has raised nearly $6 million for his 2008 re-election.

So, I thought I'd take a look at our other federal officials.

Senator Bunning (R) raised $45,445 during the 1st quarter of 2007, leaving him with a cash balance of $113,607. So far, he's raised $256,527 toward his 2010 re-election.

Here's how the state's U.S. House members are doing:

Member	Q1 2007 Raised	Q1 2007 Spent	Cash-On-Hand
Davis (R-KY4)	$317,479	$144,531	$239,720
Yarmuth (D-KY3)	$303,892	$37,249	$292,695
Chandler (D-KY6)	$140,221	$21,686	$708,648
Lewis (R-KY2)	$110,040	$14,530	$153,072
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$56,950	$52,840	$692,987
Rogers (R-KY5)	$16,000	$46,923	$988,196

Both Davis and Yarmuth are aggressively raising funds for their 2008 re-election, though Davis' campaign finance reports shows he spent about $90,000 in various "Direct Mail Expenses."  I'm a little surprised by Lewis' paltry showing given that he should expect another serious challenge next year.

By the way for comparison, here's where things stood two years ago after the 1st quarter of 2005 filing:

Member	Q1 2005 Raised	Q1 2005 Spent	Cash-On-Hand
Northup (R-KY3)	$385,506	$37,375	$390,321
Davis (R-KY4)	$274,067	$102,895	$283,809
Chandler(D-KY6)	$123,888	$55,160	$240,021
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$96,396	$40,696	$751,123
Lewis (R-KY2)	$16,468	$29,109	$314,770
Rogers (R-KY5)	$11,000	$55,490	$896,489

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) Not On Karl Rove's Top 20 Target List For 2008

TPMmuckraker has the skinny on a presentation that Karl Rove's deputy (Kentucky's own Scott Jennings) gave to personnel of the General Services Administration (GSA) staff earlier this year and was produced in conjunction with congressional testimony today by its top official. The presentation reveals a number of particularly relevant Kentucky-specific items.

First, one page of Rove's power point was entitled "2008 House Targets: Top 20" and not included on that list was U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D). That's right, John is not considered by Rove as one of their Top 20 targets in 2008. All three of the Indiana seats that Democrats flipped last year are listed, but not Yarmuth.

Here's that page (click image for larger version):

However, U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) is named on another Rove chart entitled "2008 House GOP Defense" under the column "Secondary Defense". No other Kentucky House seats are mentioned in the presentation.

Additionally, in discussing where the ground game worked and didn't work in 2006 House races, it reveals interesting information concerning KY3 (Northup) and KY4 (Davis).

Apparently, the final polls taken in the 2006 races showed that Anne Northup (R) had a 13-point lead over John Yarmuth (D) (50% to 37%), but lost that race by two points. Meanwhile, Geoff Davis (R) was leading Ken Lucas (D) by just 1-point (44% to 43%) but won his race by seven points.

By the way, the underlying testimony regarding Jennings' efforts with GSA officials is pretty sketchy as well as I suspect we haven't heard the last of it. Seems that Mr. Jennings is finding himself in the national news a little more than he'd like. Recall this recent development.

Here's what TPMmuckraker wrote:

After the presentation, Doan reportedly asked other employees how the agency could help "our candidates." The GSA, remember, is the government's procurement agency, in charge of almost $60 billion each year. All of this seems like a clear violation of the Hatch Act, which prohibits using federal resources to aid political parties.

Click here for Rove's entire 13-page presentation.

Think Progress has great coverage as well.

House Easily Passes First Piece Of 100-Hour Program -- Anti-Terror Legislation

The House has easily passed, by a 299-128 margin, legislation to implement the 9/11 Commission Recommendations. It was the first vote on the Democratic majority's 100-hour program.

While both U.S. Reps. Ben Chandler (D) and John Yarmuth (D) voted for the resolution, the other four (Republican) members of the Kentucky House delegation voted against it.

It's shameful how truly out-of-touch Hal Rogers, Geoff Davis, Ed Whitfield and Ron Lewis are with their rank partisanship and their votes against implementing the bi-partisan 9/11 Commission. Absurd.

By the way, I'm certain these Bluegrass wingnuts will be happily supporting the Bush Administration's call for an additional 21,500 troops to go into Iraq (17,500 for Baghdad and 4,000 for Anbar Province).

A Revealing Look

The Courier-Journal submitted written questions to our congressional delegation on the Iraq Study Group report, asking them where they stand on a couple of issues.

What is noteworthy is how Senator Bunning (R) and Rep. Geoff Davis (R) show themselves to be disturbingly out of sync with the rest of the Kentucky delegation over the question: "Should the United States engage in negotiations with Iran and Syria to find ways to stop sectarian violence in Iraq, and why or why not?"

U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield, R-Ky.
"Yes, any new diplomatic offensive cannot be successful unless it includes the active participation of all countries that have a critical stake in preventing Iraq from falling into chaos. For different reasons those countries would be Iran and Syria, as well as Turkey, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan."

U.S. Rep. Harold “Hal” Rogers, R-Ky.
"The people of Iraq — as well as its neighbors in the Middle East — have an interest in a peaceful, stable Iraq. Diplomatic and political approaches can assist in bringing about a united and stable Iraq."

U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Ky.
"Considering the instability and dangerous circumstances that our troops are facing every day in Iraq, I see no reason why the United States should not explore every option for finding potential solutions to this ongoing war.

"If we can persuade countries neighboring Iraq to be helpful in our efforts rather than harmful, then that would certainly be to our advantage."

U.S. Rep.-elect John Yarmuth, D-Ky.
"They (Iran and Syria) are critical figures in backing a lot of the insurgency and therefore there’s no reason we wouldn’t want to try to engage them to see if they can help stop it."

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky.
"I do not support engaging in negotiations with rogue nations such as Iran and Syria that are known sponsors of terrorist groups in Iraq, Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza.

"I do not believe that we should give terrorists a seat at the negotiating table. Such a shift in our nation’s foreign policy could have grave consequences for our national security."

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis, R-Ky.
"It is important to the stability of the Middle East to increase the diplomatic dialogue between all of Iraq’s neighbors. The United States will not negotiate with Iran and Syria regarding Iraq’s future — that is for the Iraqis to determine."

(Note that neither Senator McConnell nor Congressman Lewis responded directly to the questions.)

KY2

I will use this post for updates on KY2 (Lewis v Weaver), so please use this as the main thread for discussion.

PREDICTION RESULTS

216 of you took part in today's survey of predicting who will win tonight's races:

3rd Congressional District

Yarmuth (D) -- 77.7%
Northup (R) -- 22.3%

4th Congressional District

Lucas (D) -- 67.1%
Davis (R) -- 32.9%

2nd Congressional District

Weaver (D) -- 38.6%
Lewis (R) -- 61.4%

1st Congressional District

Barlow (D) -- 22.4%
Whitfield (R) -- 77.6%

5th Congressional District

Stepp (D) -- 8.6%
Rogers (R) -- 91.4%

Louisville Mayor

Abramson (D) -- 97.5%
Downard (R) -- 1.0%
Springston (I) -- 1.5%

Lexington Mayor

Newberry -- 72.2%
Isaac -- 27.8%

Supreme Court -- District 1

Cunningham -- 62.4%
Johnson -- 37.6%

Supreme Court -- District 4

Shake -- 57.4%
McAnulty -- 42.6%

Supreme Court -- District 5

Noble -- 73.6%
Roach -- 26.4%

Supreme Court -- District 6

Schroder -- 75.3%
Carey -- 24.7%

2nd Senate District

Hubbard (D) -- 54.5%
Leeper (I) -- 40.9%
Archer (R) -- 4.5%

12th Senate District

Keller (D) -- 50.5%
Forgy Kerr (R) -- 49.5%

Will Democrats Take Control of U.S. House?

Yes -- 93.8%
No -- 6.2%

Will Democrats Take Control of U.S. Senate?

Yes -- 33%
No -- 67%

Will Ben Chandler Run for Governor In 2007?

Yes -- 15.2%
No -- 84.8%

KY CONGRESSIONAL RACES

Here are links to the Secretary of State's website on the state's six congressional races:

1st Congressional District -- Whitfield (R) v. Barlow (D)
2nd Congressional District -- Lewis (R) v. Weaver (D)
3rd Congressional District -- Northup (R) v. Yarmuth (D)
4th Congressional District -- Davis (R) v. Lucas (D)
5th Congressional District -- Rogers (R) v. Stepp (D)
6th Congressional District -- Chandler (D) v. Ard (L)

KY2: More Scum GOP Tactics

Such shameful bullshit tactics. From the Weaver for Congress campaign this afternoon:

Several voters in Kentucky's Second Congressional District were awoken at 2am this morning by automated calls and if they hung up, they were called back as many as seven times. Those who have received calls reported that it initially appears as if the Democratic House candidate is behind the call. It isn't until the call's conclusion that the party responsible for the call, the National Republican Congressional Campaign, is disclosed.

Be sure to spread this around to your friends and family and encourage them to do the same.

The Washington Monthly -- Update #1

Here's my first update on The Washington Monthly's SHOWDOWN '06 website:

LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY, 12:22 p.m.

Hard to imagine that the Ohio River Valley of Kentucky and Indiana is the early bellwether this evening, but it’s true. So let’s just stick that turkey thermometer right into the Ohio River as we close the oven door for the early 6:00 pm closing of the polls here. Six Republican-held seats (KY2, KY3, KY4, IN2, IN8, and IN9) are in imminent peril, four of them alone in the Louisville media market.

Kentucky has become the most improbable epicenter of activity this evening. The state, which has sharply trended Republican over the past decade, contains a Republican governor, and two Republican senators. Five of the six congressional seats are held by the GOP (Ben Chandler is the state’s lone Democrat), and we have a Republican-controlled state Senate. Bush carried the state with 60% of the vote in 2004.

(click here to keep reading)

Predictions

I'll put together a final comprehensive survey later today to test your final predictions about tomorrow's elections. In the meantime, what do you think will happen tomorrow night?

No doubt that races are tightening and so many are still so competitive that it's hard to know which way some will lean. I am confident tomorrow will be a very good night for Democrats across the country and here in Kentucky.

So, let me offer my predictions and encourage you to offer your own:            

• (KY3) John Yarmuth (D) will defeat Rep. Anne Northup (R) by a 52-47 margin.
     
• (KY4) Former Rep. Ken Lucas (D) will defeat Rep. Geoff Davis (R) 49-47.
                 
• (KY2) While I hope I am wrong, I think Rep. Ron Lewis (R) will hold off State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) by a margin around 53-47.
                       
• (KY1) Former Rep. Tom Barlow (D) will receive a surprisingly strong 45% of the vote against Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) despite spending no money.
                    
• (State House) In Frankfort, House Democrats will pick-up 7 Republican-held seats in the House and hold on to all Democratic-held seats, increasing its majority from 56-44 to 63-37.
               
• (State Senate) Senate Democrats will pick-up one seat, but I'm not certain which one.
                 
• (Supreme Court) Ann O'Malley Shake, Mary Noble, Wil Schroder, Bill Cunningham and John Minton (running unopposed) will be elected to the Kentucky Supreme Court.
                          
• (U.S. House) Nationally, Democrats will retake the House of Representatives by picking-up 33 Republican-held seats and will not lose one of its own.
              
• (U.S. Senate) In the Senate, Democrats will win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana, Virginia and Missouri and New Jersey, giving them a 51-49 majority. Tennessee and Arizona will be much closer than expected but Republicans will hold on. (I concur with Larry Sabato's analysis here)
                 
• (UPSET) My pick for biggest upset of the night in Kentucky is Amy Shir (D) knocking-off Republican House Caucus Chairman Bob DeWeese (R) for the 48th House District seat, as she's able to ride the wave of support from a strong Democratic female vote that propels John Yarmuth to Congress -- on top of the exceptionally strong campaign she ran on her own.

Be On The Lookout

Josh Marshall is reporting this evening a very sleazy tactic that the NRCC is employing in some competitive House races arounf the country -- so be on the lookout for them here in KY2, KY3 and KY4 and e-mail me ASAP if you receive one of them:

What we're seeing is an apparent coordinated effort from the NRCC -- the House GOP committee -- to place calls that appear to be from the local Democratic candidate and then automatically call the same number back as many as seven or eight times each time the caller hang-ups. If the caller listens to the whole message it goes on to bash the Democratic candidate. But if the caller hangs up prematurely, the computer calls right back. Hang-ups are the achilles heal of robo-calls. So this seems to be an attempt to cover for that weakness by making those who hang up think the Democratic candidate is basically harassing them with phone calls. The GOP wins either way.

KY3, KY4, KY2 and IN9

James Carroll takes a good look at the four hotly contested Republican-held House seats in the Louisville market in today's Courier-Journal.

The whole piece is worth a read, but Senator McConnell (R) again shows us all he thinks matters about politics:

Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said he does not think any GOP House members in Kentucky will be looking for new jobs Wednesday morning.

"I think you can stipulate that the atmosphere is not great this year for Republicans -- what you don't know in advance of the election is whether there is a (Democratic) wave or not," McConnell said.

"These three races down here have raised enough money and have defined the incumbents well enough to the point I believe they can resist the atmosphere," he said.

It's sad that politics so often comes down to who has enough money to "define" themselves and opponents, not about a vision or issues. I don't disagree with McConnell. I just lament it.

However, this does appear to be one election cycle when money is making a lot less of a difference considering that incumbents in KY2, KY3 and KY4 have spent about three times the money as their challengers but trail in the polls with just two days to go.

KY2 Poll: Weaver Leads Lewis 46-43 In DCCC/KDP Poll!

A poll commissioned by the DCCC and the Kentucky Democratic Party on October 26-29 shows that, for the very first time, State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) now leads Rep. Ron Lewis (R) by a 46% to 43% margin for the 2nd Congressional District seat.

Click here for a copy of the polling memo.

You'll recall BluegrassReport.org mentioning the chatter of such results yesterday, but now there is confirmation. Pol Watchers also has news of the poll.

This means that Democratic challengers in KY2, KY3 and KY4 are now leading with just six days to go...

The Finish Line (LEO)

I take an expanded (full page) look at next week's elections in this week's LEO column. Here's an excerpt:

Bluegrass Politics: The Finish Line
By Mark Nickolas (LEO)

With less than a week to go in this election season, we’re coming up on the final mile of an unusually grueling marathon. Next week, voters will decide whether to change course from one-party Republican rule and return to the prospect of a more evenly divided federal government.

The election couldn’t come at worse time for Republicans, who continue hemorrhaging from political wounds received from the war in Iraq, corruption scandals and the Mark Foley situation.

As a result, President Bush’s job approval rating hovers under 40 percent, a dangerously low historical level for a second-term president, and a majority of voters appear to be looking to Democrats for new leadership.

Even Fox News had to deliver the bad news to its conservative devotees when it released its own polling numbers last week, showing that the country now trusts Democrats more than Republicans on issues such as the economy (45 percent to 39), Iraq (45-36), taxes (42-40), immigration (39-36), ethics in government (38-29) and even moral values (37-34). The only category where Republicans are better viewed is on their ability to handle the threat of terrorism (43 percent to 35), a category where they had led by as many as 30 points just a few years ago.

Let’s recap what’s at stake this year:

[...]

Dynamics in Kentucky
Kentucky finds itself in the national spotlight, with three especially competitive congressional races. Three incumbent Republicans — Anne Northup, Geoff Davis and Ron Lewis — have been locked in epic battles throughout the year.

Buoying the optimism of Democratic challengers in those races are new independent polling numbers released on Monday. They show Democratic challenger John Yarmuth taking a 52 percent to 46 percent lead over Northup in Louisville’s 3rd District battle, which is noteworthy after polls showed the race deadlocked for the past month.

Meanwhile, in the 4th District, former U.S. Rep. Ken Lucas (D) had pulled to a 50-46 lead over incumbent Davis, after the race see-sawed all year from a big early lead for Lucas, followed by a closing of the gap by Davis. Further, Lucas’ latest internal polling showed him up eight points earlier this week.

In the case of both Yarmuth and Lucas, the polling indicates that previously undecided voters are beginning to cast their lot, and not unexpectedly, are disproportionately siding with Democratic challengers, allowing each candidate to pierce that all-important 50-percent mark in the polls.

The dynamics in the 2nd District are also changing rapidly, as recently com