BluegrassReport.org

Kentucky's Clear Blue Shift

One of the recent signs that have made more predict that U.S. Sen. McConnell (R) is in for a rougher re-election fight than expected is the fact that President Bush's (R) job approval numbers in Kentucky have plummeted to a disastrously low 35% approve and 65% disapprove.

Indeed, those numbers do suggest that the man who has proudly defended and advanced the Bush agenda ought to be very concerned. But a closer look at those numbers tell an even more problematic story for McConnell.

You see, while Bush is becoming less popular in Kentucky, he's also getting less popular in the other 49 states, so simply using Bush's plunging numbers in Kentucky only tell part of the story. But where things are much more instructive is to see where Bush has dropped more than elsewhere over the past few years.

When you do that, you'll notice that in only one state (New Mexico) has Bush's job performance tumbled more than it has in Kentucky -- among those states which SurveyUSA has been testing monthly since May 2005 -- when you compare the differences in President Bush's net rating (approval minus disapproval):

State	Nov 2007	May 2005	Diff
New Mexico	-35 (32/67)	-4 (46/50)	-31
Kentucky	-27 (35/62)	+2 (49/47)	-29
California	-44 (26/70)	-15 (39/54)	-29
New York	-54 (22/76)	-25 (35/60)	-29
Minnesota	-30 (34/64)	-2 (47/49)	-28
Massachusetts	-54 (22/76)	-26 (35/61)	-28
Virginia	-32 (33/65)	-6 (44/50)	-26
Kansas	-21 (38/59)	+4 (49/45)	-25
Washington	-35 (31/66)	-10 (42/52)	-25
Oregon	-36 (31/67)	-13 (42/55)	-23
Alabama	-16 (41/57)	+6 (50/44)	-22
Wisconsin	-33 (32/65)	-12 (42/54)	-21
Missouri	-28 (35/63)	-10 (42/52)	-18
Iowa	-33 (32/65)	-17 (39/56)	-16
Ohio	-29 (34/63)	-20 (38/58)	-9
AVERAGE	-33.8	-9.9	-23.9

That - along with the plummeting of new Kentucky Republican voters over the past two years and this month's landslide defeat of Governor Fletcher (R) -- really paints a picture that a political realignment is happening here in a noticeable way and these dynamics couldn't be happening to McConnell at a worse time.

Does that lead me to believe that Kentucky is becoming a Democratic state again? No, I wouldn't go that far.

But I do believe these trends tell us that Kentucky is much more politically comparable to the Midwest swing states than it is to the South, which is how the state seemed to behave for much of the past decade, until around 2005 when we began to see a subtle but steady change in the political attitudes of Kentucky voters, leading to John Yarmuth's (D) defeat of Anne Northup (R) in the 3rd congressional district and this year's defeat of Fletcher and plunging approval numbers for McConnell.

This is why McConnell should be even more concerned and why the environment is right for a serious challenge of both U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis' (R) and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield's (R) congressional seat, as well as the take-back of the state Senate.

(Note: While SurveyUSA has conducted monthly Bush approval tracking in the states since May 2005, about a year ago it narrowed its month survey from all 50 states to 15 states, which is why the above chart only lists those states.)

KY2: It's (Almost) Official -- Boswell To Challenge Lewis

Music to my ears...looks like we have a top-tier challenger for one congressional seat as State Sen. David Boswell (D) appears ready to challenge the very unimpressive and beatable U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) for his 2nd Congressional District seat:

Democratic State Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro said he is planning a press conference "in the very, very near future" to officially announce his candidacy to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecilia.

"I do plan to run for the U.S. Congress in the 2nd District," Boswell said yesterday. "I think people, overall, are ready for change. They're ready for a new guard."

Boswell, who was agriculture commissioner from 1984 to 1988 and has been a senator since 1991, said the win by fellow Democrat Steve Beshear in Tuesday's governor's race gives him and other potential candidates for next year's election a huge boost.

Now we need to find candidates in the 1st, 4th, and why not take a shot in the 5th, even if it's an enormous longshot?

Aside from never knowing what can happen in a political election, why not aggressively challenge all seats instead of effectively conceding them? I'm sure we can find a young local lawyer in the district that would be willing to take the plunge and get some political hands-on experience.

The Silver Lining: There's Still Time To Drop-Out...

Third quarter congressional fundraising numbers are out, and despite former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R) hosting a big fundraiser for him last month, it seems that Erwin Roberts' (R) fundraising leaves a lot to be desired in his quixotic quest to knock-off U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) in one of the worst possible years for a Republican challenger to try to defeat a Democratic incumbent in a majority Democratic district.

	Raised QTR	Raised Year	Cash-on-Hand
Yarmuth (D)	$129,887	$730,288	$536,050
Roberts (R)	$67,923	$111,215	$63,900

Making things worse for Roberts is how the NRCC is broke:

"At the end of August, the National Republican Congressional Committee reported only $1.6 million cash on hand, with $4 million in debt. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, by comparison, had banked over $22 million, with only $3 million in debt."

Translation: The DCCC has $19 million while the NRCC is in the red, meaning the NRCC will be lucky to help vulnerable incumbents at most -- yet alone underfunded challengers in Democratic districts -- and even they acknowledge more loses of House seats are on the way for Republicans in 2008.

And if that wasn't bad enough...the unindicted co-conspirator (aka Roberts) has these additional eight hurdles that make his quest more like climbing Mt. Everest without supplemental oxygen on his first mountain climb ever. But there's plenty of time for Roberts to reconsidering the enormity of the challenge before him and get out before getting spanked.

Oh yeah, here's how the congressional delegation did:

	Raised QTR	Spent QTR	Raised Year	Spent Year	Cash-on-Hand
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$125,928	$27,609	$350,232	$150,992	$932,193
Lewis (R-KY2)	$107,915	$41,593	$376,293	$156,030	$312,993
Yarmuth (D-KY3)	$129,887	$54,330	$730,288	$252,132	$536,050
Davis (R-KY4)	$199,377	$97,772	$827,877	$438,678	$530,907
Rogers (R-KY5)	$78,090	$28,352	$148,849	$128,041	$1,007,224
Chandler (D-KY6)	$144,570	$22,609	$450,170	$71,572	$934,520

Seems that Lewis is tempting fate again with his very tepid fundraising. You'd think he'd learn by now. I suspect he'll have much more on his hands in 2008 than he did in 2006, and raising $100k per quarter with only $300k in the bank seems mighty, mighty foolish...

P.S. -- Just got my Article 1 button in the mail, along with a copy of the U.S. Constitution. Thanks much to the awesome Yarmuth staff. They rock.

Follow The Money

If you're interested in knowing how Kentucky's federal delegation gets its bread buttered, MAPLight.org has an update on the campaign finance breakdown for each of our state's members for the most recently completed cycle.

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $250,047
ATTORNEY $122,100
PHYSICIAN $91,801
FARMER $74,860
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $62,700
SELF-EMPLOYED $42,850
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $41,250
HUMANA INC $38,877
GRIFFIN INDUSTRIES $38,800
PEABODY ENERGY $35,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $390,848
Retired $242,047
Security brokers & investment companies $234,949
Pro-Israel $173,735
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $168,550
Lobbyists & public relations $147,295
Farmers, in general $121,160
Hospitals $121,100
Physicians $115,177
Coal mining $108,600

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $184,175
ATTORNEY $62,770
PHYSICIAN $58,750
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,100
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS $20,000
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $17,050
ASHLAND INC $16,250
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $15,000
FARMER $13,750
RJ REYNOLDS TOBACCO $13,500

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $191,984
Retired $188,875
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $164,199
Security brokers & investment companies $130,243
Other physician specialists $125,800
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $117,949
Lobbyists & public relations $94,516
Physicians $81,750
Pro-Israel $64,900
Life insurance $61,083

U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers (R-KY5)

[organizations]
ATTORNEY $18,000
ADDINGTON ENTERPRISES $17,800
RETIRED $17,450
BEECHFORK PROCESSING $16,000
CONSULTANT $13,850
FIRST NATIONAL BANK $12,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
GEO GROUP $10,000
GENERAL ELECTRIC $10,000
LOCKHEED MARTIN $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $40,700
Engineers - type unknown $28,900
Lobbyists & public relations $25,400
Business services $25,050
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $21,000
Defense areospace contractors $21,000
Civil servant/public employee $20,750
Mining $20,000
Vegetables, fruits & tree nuts $18,900
Retired $17,450

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY4)

[organizations]
RETIRED $191,705
SELF-EMPLOYED $22,882
ATTORNEY $18,900
EMERALD COAL $16,500
INVESTOR $15,050
AMERICAN BANKERS ASSN $15,000
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $14,100
CNG FINANCIAL $12,700
CINTAS CORP $11,600
DRS TECHNOLOGIES $11,200

[interests]
Retired $191,705
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $91,727
Attorneys & law firms $85,900
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $70,550
Credit agencies & finance companies $53,550
Lobbyists & public relations $52,603
Security brokers & investment companies $49,432
Residential construction $41,800
Coal mining $39,050
Mortgage bankers & brokers $37,550

U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R-KY2)

[organizations]
SELF-EMPLOYED $52,607
RETIRED $38,010
PHYSICIAN $24,060
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,350
ATTORNEY $14,800
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $14,499
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $10,250
AMERICAN PHYSICAL THERAPY ASSN $10,000
AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSN $10,000
PINKERTON TOBACCO $10,000

[interests]
General commerce $57,707
Tobacco & tobacco products $46,850
Physicians $41,060
Retired $38,010
Hospitals $36,600
Other physician specialists $33,450
Attorneys & law firms $31,150
Wine & distilled spirits manufacturing $28,077
Lobbyists & public relations $27,494
Accident & health insurance $21,500

U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield (R-KY1)

[organizations]
RETIRED $33,350
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $21,250
PHYSICIAN $21,200
AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP $12,250
NATIONAL CABLE & TELECOMMUNICATIONS ASSN $11,000
AT&T INC $10,000
UNION PACIFIC CORP $10,000
PFIZER INC $10,000
WINE & SPIRITS WHOLESALERS OF AMERICA $10,000
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,000

[interests]
Other physician specialists $76,785
Pharmaceutical manufacturing $38,752
Telephone utilities $35,000
Retired $33,350
Physicians $33,200
Attorneys & law firms $32,100
Railroads $25,600
Tobacco & tobacco products $23,500
Pharmaceutical wholesale $21,250
Liquor wholesalers $20,500

U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (R-KY6)

[organizations]
RETIRED $37,600
ATTORNEY $19,300
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,500
INTL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS $10,000
NATIONAL ASSN OF REALTORS $10,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
NATIONAL AUTO DEALERS ASSN $10,000
IRONWORKERS UNION $10,000
TEAMSTERS UNION $10,000
FARM CREDIT COUNCIL $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $69,924
Construction unions $49,000
Retired $37,600
Manufacturing unions $30,000
Air transport unions $18,700
Farmers, in general $18,550
Express delivery services $15,499
Restaurants & drinking establishments $15,450
Liquor wholesalers $15,000
Banks & lending institutions $14,900

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY3)
No data yet

Fundraising

Last week, we learned that Senator McConnell (R) has raised nearly $6 million for his 2008 re-election.

So, I thought I'd take a look at our other federal officials.

Senator Bunning (R) raised $45,445 during the 1st quarter of 2007, leaving him with a cash balance of $113,607. So far, he's raised $256,527 toward his 2010 re-election.

Here's how the state's U.S. House members are doing:

Member	Q1 2007 Raised	Q1 2007 Spent	Cash-On-Hand
Davis (R-KY4)	$317,479	$144,531	$239,720
Yarmuth (D-KY3)	$303,892	$37,249	$292,695
Chandler (D-KY6)	$140,221	$21,686	$708,648
Lewis (R-KY2)	$110,040	$14,530	$153,072
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$56,950	$52,840	$692,987
Rogers (R-KY5)	$16,000	$46,923	$988,196

Both Davis and Yarmuth are aggressively raising funds for their 2008 re-election, though Davis' campaign finance reports shows he spent about $90,000 in various "Direct Mail Expenses."  I'm a little surprised by Lewis' paltry showing given that he should expect another serious challenge next year.

By the way for comparison, here's where things stood two years ago after the 1st quarter of 2005 filing:

Member	Q1 2005 Raised	Q1 2005 Spent	Cash-On-Hand
Northup (R-KY3)	$385,506	$37,375	$390,321
Davis (R-KY4)	$274,067	$102,895	$283,809
Chandler(D-KY6)	$123,888	$55,160	$240,021
Whitfield (R-KY1)	$96,396	$40,696	$751,123
Lewis (R-KY2)	$16,468	$29,109	$314,770
Rogers (R-KY5)	$11,000	$55,490	$896,489

House Easily Passes First Piece Of 100-Hour Program -- Anti-Terror Legislation

The House has easily passed, by a 299-128 margin, legislation to implement the 9/11 Commission Recommendations. It was the first vote on the Democratic majority's 100-hour program.

While both U.S. Reps. Ben Chandler (D) and John Yarmuth (D) voted for the resolution, the other four (Republican) members of the Kentucky House delegation voted against it.

It's shameful how truly out-of-touch Hal Rogers, Geoff Davis, Ed Whitfield and Ron Lewis are with their rank partisanship and their votes against implementing the bi-partisan 9/11 Commission. Absurd.

By the way, I'm certain these Bluegrass wingnuts will be happily supporting the Bush Administration's call for an additional 21,500 troops to go into Iraq (17,500 for Baghdad and 4,000 for Anbar Province).

A Revealing Look

The Courier-Journal submitted written questions to our congressional delegation on the Iraq Study Group report, asking them where they stand on a couple of issues.

What is noteworthy is how Senator Bunning (R) and Rep. Geoff Davis (R) show themselves to be disturbingly out of sync with the rest of the Kentucky delegation over the question: "Should the United States engage in negotiations with Iran and Syria to find ways to stop sectarian violence in Iraq, and why or why not?"

U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield, R-Ky.
"Yes, any new diplomatic offensive cannot be successful unless it includes the active participation of all countries that have a critical stake in preventing Iraq from falling into chaos. For different reasons those countries would be Iran and Syria, as well as Turkey, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan."

U.S. Rep. Harold “Hal” Rogers, R-Ky.
"The people of Iraq — as well as its neighbors in the Middle East — have an interest in a peaceful, stable Iraq. Diplomatic and political approaches can assist in bringing about a united and stable Iraq."

U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Ky.
"Considering the instability and dangerous circumstances that our troops are facing every day in Iraq, I see no reason why the United States should not explore every option for finding potential solutions to this ongoing war.

"If we can persuade countries neighboring Iraq to be helpful in our efforts rather than harmful, then that would certainly be to our advantage."

U.S. Rep.-elect John Yarmuth, D-Ky.
"They (Iran and Syria) are critical figures in backing a lot of the insurgency and therefore there’s no reason we wouldn’t want to try to engage them to see if they can help stop it."

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky.
"I do not support engaging in negotiations with rogue nations such as Iran and Syria that are known sponsors of terrorist groups in Iraq, Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza.

"I do not believe that we should give terrorists a seat at the negotiating table. Such a shift in our nation’s foreign policy could have grave consequences for our national security."

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis, R-Ky.
"It is important to the stability of the Middle East to increase the diplomatic dialogue between all of Iraq’s neighbors. The United States will not negotiate with Iran and Syria regarding Iraq’s future — that is for the Iraqis to determine."

(Note that neither Senator McConnell nor Congressman Lewis responded directly to the questions.)

PREDICTION RESULTS

216 of you took part in today's survey of predicting who will win tonight's races:

3rd Congressional District

Yarmuth (D) -- 77.7%
Northup (R) -- 22.3%

4th Congressional District

Lucas (D) -- 67.1%
Davis (R) -- 32.9%

2nd Congressional District

Weaver (D) -- 38.6%
Lewis (R) -- 61.4%

1st Congressional District

Barlow (D) -- 22.4%
Whitfield (R) -- 77.6%

5th Congressional District

Stepp (D) -- 8.6%
Rogers (R) -- 91.4%

Louisville Mayor

Abramson (D) -- 97.5%
Downard (R) -- 1.0%
Springston (I) -- 1.5%

Lexington Mayor

Newberry -- 72.2%
Isaac -- 27.8%

Supreme Court -- District 1

Cunningham -- 62.4%
Johnson -- 37.6%

Supreme Court -- District 4

Shake -- 57.4%
McAnulty -- 42.6%

Supreme Court -- District 5

Noble -- 73.6%
Roach -- 26.4%

Supreme Court -- District 6

Schroder -- 75.3%
Carey -- 24.7%

2nd Senate District

Hubbard (D) -- 54.5%
Leeper (I) -- 40.9%
Archer (R) -- 4.5%

12th Senate District

Keller (D) -- 50.5%
Forgy Kerr (R) -- 49.5%

Will Democrats Take Control of U.S. House?

Yes -- 93.8%
No -- 6.2%

Will Democrats Take Control of U.S. Senate?

Yes -- 33%
No -- 67%

Will Ben Chandler Run for Governor In 2007?

Yes -- 15.2%
No -- 84.8%

KY CONGRESSIONAL RACES

Here are links to the Secretary of State's website on the state's six congressional races:

1st Congressional District -- Whitfield (R) v. Barlow (D)
2nd Congressional District -- Lewis (R) v. Weaver (D)
3rd Congressional District -- Northup (R) v. Yarmuth (D)
4th Congressional District -- Davis (R) v. Lucas (D)
5th Congressional District -- Rogers (R) v. Stepp (D)
6th Congressional District -- Chandler (D) v. Ard (L)

Predictions

I'll put together a final comprehensive survey later today to test your final predictions about tomorrow's elections. In the meantime, what do you think will happen tomorrow night?

No doubt that races are tightening and so many are still so competitive that it's hard to know which way some will lean. I am confident tomorrow will be a very good night for Democrats across the country and here in Kentucky.

So, let me offer my predictions and encourage you to offer your own:            

• (KY3) John Yarmuth (D) will defeat Rep. Anne Northup (R) by a 52-47 margin.
     
• (KY4) Former Rep. Ken Lucas (D) will defeat Rep. Geoff Davis (R) 49-47.
                 
• (KY2) While I hope I am wrong, I think Rep. Ron Lewis (R) will hold off State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) by a margin around 53-47.
                       
• (KY1) Former Rep. Tom Barlow (D) will receive a surprisingly strong 45% of the vote against Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) despite spending no money.
                    
• (State House) In Frankfort, House Democrats will pick-up 7 Republican-held seats in the House and hold on to all Democratic-held seats, increasing its majority from 56-44 to 63-37.
               
• (State Senate) Senate Democrats will pick-up one seat, but I'm not certain which one.
                 
• (Supreme Court) Ann O'Malley Shake, Mary Noble, Wil Schroder, Bill Cunningham and John Minton (running unopposed) will be elected to the Kentucky Supreme Court.
                          
• (U.S. House) Nationally, Democrats will retake the House of Representatives by picking-up 33 Republican-held seats and will not lose one of its own.
              
• (U.S. Senate) In the Senate, Democrats will win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana, Virginia and Missouri and New Jersey, giving them a 51-49 majority. Tennessee and Arizona will be much closer than expected but Republicans will hold on. (I concur with Larry Sabato's analysis here)
                 
• (UPSET) My pick for biggest upset of the night in Kentucky is Amy Shir (D) knocking-off Republican House Caucus Chairman Bob DeWeese (R) for the 48th House District seat, as she's able to ride the wave of support from a strong Democratic female vote that propels John Yarmuth to Congress -- on top of the exceptionally strong campaign she ran on her own.

The Finish Line (LEO)

I take an expanded (full page) look at next week's elections in this week's LEO column. Here's an excerpt:

Bluegrass Politics: The Finish Line
By Mark Nickolas (LEO)

With less than a week to go in this election season, we’re coming up on the final mile of an unusually grueling marathon. Next week, voters will decide whether to change course from one-party Republican rule and return to the prospect of a more evenly divided federal government.

The election couldn’t come at worse time for Republicans, who continue hemorrhaging from political wounds received from the war in Iraq, corruption scandals and the Mark Foley situation.

As a result, President Bush’s job approval rating hovers under 40 percent, a dangerously low historical level for a second-term president, and a majority of voters appear to be looking to Democrats for new leadership.

Even Fox News had to deliver the bad news to its conservative devotees when it released its own polling numbers last week, showing that the country now trusts Democrats more than Republicans on issues such as the economy (45 percent to 39), Iraq (45-36), taxes (42-40), immigration (39-36), ethics in government (38-29) and even moral values (37-34). The only category where Republicans are better viewed is on their ability to handle the threat of terrorism (43 percent to 35), a category where they had led by as many as 30 points just a few years ago.

Let’s recap what’s at stake this year:

[...]

Dynamics in Kentucky
Kentucky finds itself in the national spotlight, with three especially competitive congressional races. Three incumbent Republicans — Anne Northup, Geoff Davis and Ron Lewis — have been locked in epic battles throughout the year.

Buoying the optimism of Democratic challengers in those races are new independent polling numbers released on Monday. They show Democratic challenger John Yarmuth taking a 52 percent to 46 percent lead over Northup in Louisville’s 3rd District battle, which is noteworthy after polls showed the race deadlocked for the past month.

Meanwhile, in the 4th District, former U.S. Rep. Ken Lucas (D) had pulled to a 50-46 lead over incumbent Davis, after the race see-sawed all year from a big early lead for Lucas, followed by a closing of the gap by Davis. Further, Lucas’ latest internal polling showed him up eight points earlier this week.

In the case of both Yarmuth and Lucas, the polling indicates that previously undecided voters are beginning to cast their lot, and not unexpectedly, are disproportionately siding with Democratic challengers, allowing each candidate to pierce that all-important 50-percent mark in the polls.

The dynamics in the 2nd District are also changing rapidly, as recently completed Democratic polling now shows State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) having entirely closed the gap against Lewis, the six-term incumbent.

In all three races, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is now on the air with ads supporting their candidates, ensuring a strong finish for each. Remarkably, these results have developed despite massive fundraising advantage the three incumbents have held throughout the year.

Even in Western Kentucky’s 1st Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) — who received 67 percent of the vote in 2004 — has spent more than $500,000 against an opponent (former U.S. Rep. Tom Barlow, a Democrat) who hasn’t raised enough money to be required to file campaign finance reports. That indicates the degree of concern and softness of the political environment that Republican incumbents face this year.

The only congressional member not facing major party opposition is the state’s lone Democrat, U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler. Noteworthy is that just four years ago it was the Democratic Party that failed to offer a challenge to then-U.S. Rep. Ernie Fletcher (R).

Beyond congressional races, the battleground inside Kentucky has been the state House, where Democrats have fielded more than a dozen excellent legislative candidates, and where all signs point to a four to eight seat pick-up, increasing their present 56-44 majority. After losing seven seats in 2004, Democrats are back, gunning hard for those freshman Republicans who defeated them two years ago.

While Democrats had earlier hoped to pick up the three seats needed in the state Senate to erase the Republicans’ slim majority, only two seats appear in serious contention, ensuring that Senate President David Williams (R) will remain in control of that chamber.

But the races that may have the most impact on the direction of the state might be the four hotly contested seats on the Kentucky Supreme Court, which will comprise a new majority on the seven-member court.

[...]

What’s next?
The outcome of next week’s elections will, no doubt, have major repercussions for both parties concerning the 2007 governor’s race. A takeover of the U.S. House will likely extinguish any hope Democrats had that Chandler would seek the governorship. Instead, all eyes will be on which candidate emerges from the top tier group, including former Gov. Brereton Jones, Auditor Crit Luallen and Abramson.

While a case can be made for each of the three to become the Democratic nominee, the most recent buzz has been focused on a comeback bid for Jones, with many believing he might team up with Louisville’s Jack Conway for a bid to return to Frankfort.

Among Republicans, should Northup lose her congressional seat, don’t be surprised if Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) sees that as an unexpected opportunity to oust Gov. Fletcher in next year’s primary. Northup has proven she can raise considerable money, she’s a tough campaigner, and she has the stature to knock off a sitting governor of her own party.

(click here to read entire column)

KY1: An Interesting Development

Last week, a reader pointed out to me a very interesting development regarding the 1st Congressional District race between Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) and former Rep. Tom Barlow (D).

While Barlow has raised so little money that he hasn't filed an FEC report, Whitfield's latest report shows that he's spent $510,248 during this election cycle in campaign expenditures (not including the additional $185,000 he's given to his political party committees).

That seems like a lot of money to spend against a challenger who isn't spending any. What sort of softening is Whitfield seeing in his internal polling to justify spending that kind of money?

In comparison, State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) has spent about the same amount of money ($599,456) in his race against Rep. Ron Lewis (R) in the 2nd Congressional District -- a competitive race.

KY1: Whitfield (R) Launches Negative TV Ad Against Barlow (D) -- What Does This Tell Us?

This is truly unbelievable.

Just received a call from a rock-solid Paducah source who tells me that Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) has just gone-up this evening with an attack ad against former Rep. Tom Barlow (D). The ad criticized Barlow for being a perennial candidate, or something to that effect.

Can you believe that? What in the world is Whitfield's polling telling him about the political environment that he would need to go negative?

As I wrote a year ago:

Since defeating Barlow in 1994 with 51% of the vote, Whitfield has increased his vote total in every subsequent election with 53.5% in 1996, 55.1% in 1998 (against Barlow in a re-match), 58.0% in 2000, 65.3% in 2002, and 67.4% in 2004.

GIven this history, I think Whitfield's decision three weeks out to attack Barlow should tell us a lot...Remember this post from May?

Congressional Fundraising

The 3rd quarter FEC reports have been filed by Kentucky's congressional candidates. Here's how things stand:

KY1

Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) -- During quarter raised $178,744, spent $42,756 and had $1,123,126 in the bank (as of Sep 30). For the entire 2006 cycle, Whitfield has raised $893,000.

Former Rep. Tom Barlow (D) -- Barlow has not filed any electronic reports with the FEC, so I don't have any reporting.

KY2

Rep. Ron Lewis (R) -- During quarter raised $363,490, spent $562,062 and had $827,093 in the bank (as of Sep 30). For the entire 2006 cycle, Lewis has raised $1.37 million.

State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) -- During quarter raised $222,620, spent $292,936 and had $270,922 in the bank (as of Sep 30). For the entire 2006 cycle, Weaver has raised $397,000. (NOTE: Unless I'm reading the report wrong, I think Weaver's FEC report is not properly aggregating the cycle-to-date numbers because $397k can't be correct.)

KY3

Rep. Anne Northup (R) -- During quarter raised $564,855, spent $902,660 and had $1,542,283 in the bank (as of Sep 30). For the entire 2006 cycle, Northup has raised $2.77 million.

John Yarmuth (D) -- During quarter raised $486,284, spent $557,969 and had $536,244 in the bank (as of Sep 30). For the entire 2006 cycle, Yarmuth has raised $1.53 million ($1.01 million in contributions and $523k in personal money).

KY4

Rep. Geoff Davis (R) -- During quarter raised $830,476, spent $752,904 and had $1,645,314 in the bank (as of Sep 30). For the entire 2006 cycle, Davis has raised $3.38 million.

Former Rep. Ken Lucas (D) -- During quarter raised $391,281, spent $627,581 and had $381,248 in the bank (as of Sep 30). For the entire 2006 cycle, Lucas has raised $1.13 million.

KY5

Rep. Hal Rogers (R) -- During quarter raised $129,774, spent $200,100 and had $1,137,223 in the bank (as of Sep 30). For the entire 2006 cycle, Rogers has raised $946,000.

Kenneth Stepp (D) -- Stepp has not filed any electronic reports with the FEC, so I don't have any reporting.

KY6

Rep. Ben Chandler (D) -- During quarter raised $207,198, spent $32,805 and had $611,542 in the bank (as of Sep 30). For the entire 2006 cycle, Chandler has raised $1.04 million.

Comment: In KY-2, Lewis has not raised much money considering his incumbent status but is fortunate that Weaver has not either. With only $270,922 in the bank and no firm commitment from the DCCC, Weaver will be hard pressed to maintain his paid message in the four media markets. Seems like he's very dependent on a Democratic tsunami.

In KY-3, Yarmuth is clearly in the game and has been willing to tap personal money to get out his message and done well with more than a $1 million in contributions beyond that. When will the DCCC decide to enter this race??? While they are no doubt gun-shy from past expenditures to knock-off Northup, the polling numbers are holding up, despite Northup's attacks. Also, keep in mind that while Northup has had tough opponents before, she's never had to run in a tough political environment. Certainly nothing like this one...

KY-4 continues to be a back-and-forth battle that will surely come down to Election Day. While Davis is killing Lucas in fundraising, unlike KY-2, the DCCC has committed nearly $3 million in independent expenditures for Lucas to level the playing field.

Whitfield, Barlow Debate To Be Broadcast On KET

At a time when both Rep. Ron Lewis (R) and Rep. Hal Rogers (R) refuse to debate their major party opponents (see Al Cross' column today), credit goes to Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) for not following that same path and debating his opponent, former Rep. Tom Barlow (D), tomorrow night on KET.

From today's Paducah Sun:

Whitfield, Barlow Debate To Be Broadcast On KET
U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield and 1st District challenger Tom Barlow will discuss issues for 30 minutes.
Paducah Sun

U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield and challenger Tom Barlow will square off in a live debate at 7 p.m. Monday on Kentucky Educational Television.

Whitfield, a Hopkinsville Republican, and Barlow, a Paducah Democrat, will discuss issues for 30 minutes.

After giving opening remarks they will answer questions from Paducah Sun political reporter Bill Bartleman and Joe Parrino, a reporter for the Kentucky New Era in Hopkinsville.

Whitfield has held the seat since 1994, when he defeated Barlow. Barlow held the seat for one term after defeating long-time U.S. Rep. Carroll Hubbard.

The Political Malpractice Of The Kentucky Democratic Party Continues

On Sunday and Monday, two potential presidential candidates will be visiting Kentucky to help out their respective political parties. The Republican Party of Kentucky brings in Senator John McCain (R-AZ) to raise money for the party, while Kentucky Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Lundergan brings in retired General Wesley Clark (D) to talk to Democrats at a rally and then helps Clark raise money for himself.

So, while the KDP is broke, the Republicans continue to pump money into its campaigns across the state (for instance, they've already paid for four direct mail attack pieces for Geoff Davis). Now, Republicans bring in McCain to further fill its campaign coffers, in contrast to Democrats who bring in General Clark to simply talk to the faithful.

We're seeing the continuation of political malpractice of the highest order over at KDP.

Wesley Clark To Rally Kentucky Democrats
By Elisabeth J. Beardsley
The Courier-Journal

FRANFKORT, Ky. — Former presidential contender Wesley Clark is scheduled to be in Kentucky on Sunday and Monday to rally Democrats and to campaign for local candidates, the state party said on Tuesday.

Clark, a four-star general and former NATO commander who ran for president in 2004, will greet Democrats Sunday at the party’s second annual “Family Day,” said party chairman Jerry Lundergan.

“Gen. Clark is coming basically to ignite our Democratic base,” Lundergan said.

[...]

On Sunday night, Clark is scheduled to hold a private fundraiser with Lundergan, to raise money for Clark’s PAC, which Lundergan said he uses to fund his travel and activities on behalf of other candidates.

Clark will hit the road on Monday for campaign stops throughout the 1st and 2nd congressional districts, where he will campaign with local candidates, Lundergan said.

In the remaining weeks of the 2006 campaign, please be sure not to give a dime to the Kentucky Democratic Party and instead be generous directly to the various candidates who deserve our support. The KDP has let us all down, big time.

Telling It Like It Is

Murray Ledger & Times columnist Constance Alexander minces no words in her refreshingly candid column about Fancy Farm:

Can't make it to Fancy Farm?

Don't feel bad if you can't make it to Fancy Farm this Saturday. Even the governor is not sure he can shoehorn the annual political picnic into his schedule. Likewise, Senators Mitch McConnell and Jim Bunning have sent their regrets. Since neither one is currently running for office, perhaps pressing the flesh of those who elected them is considered irrelevant when everything is going so well in Washington and the world.

As always, we can count on Representative Ed Whitfield to brave the heat and the brickbats. Representative Whitfield and his opponent, Tom Barlow, will face off onstage during the proceedings. Whitfield has won against Barlow before without breaking a sweat, so he could probably stay home at his condo in Huntington Beach, California, instead of trekking to the grounds of a Catholic Church in western Kentucky for a ritual that some say is an anachronism.

2nd Quarter Federal Campaign Finance Reports

All federal candidates were required to file their quarterly FEC reports by yesterday. I dumped all the numbers into the graphic below. Click on the image for a larger and readable version.

You can look at all the reports in detail at www.fec.gov.

Personal Financial Disclosures

The Courier-Journal this morning ran summaries of the personal financial disclosures that each member of Congress is required to file annually.

Here are excerpts for a few of our delegation, along with some thoughts on each:

Rep. Geoff Davis, R-4th District

Earned income: $162,100.

Major assets: A jointly held consulting firm and savings accounts, together worth $67,004-$180,000.

Major sources of unearned income: None.

Major liabilities: Campaign loan, $100,001-$250,000.

COMMENT: I've always wondered why the media hasn't done some minimal digging on the campaign loan that Davis took out several years ago from the bank of a top contributor but still has not paid back. Given Davis' scant personal assets, how did he even qualify for such a loan? Word is that it was originally an unsecured loan and only recently was revised to make it secured. Raises a lot of concerns.

It also puts into context the very questionable $70,000 of campaign money that Davis personally reimbursed himself for vaguely worded "travel expenses" or "mileage" or "miscellaneous expenses" or "meals" over the past few years.

Rep. Hal Rogers, R-5th District

Earned income: $162,100

Major assets: $1 million-$5 million in Citizens Bancshares Inc. Rogers did not summarize various additional assets on his disclosure form, but instead submitted hundreds of pages of documents detailing all of his investments, income and transactions during 2005. Spokeswoman Leslie Cupp said the congressman submitted more information than was required.

Major sources of unearned income: $100,001-$1 million from Citizen Bancshares. Rogers submitted the hundreds of pages of documents mentioned above in place of summarizing other unearned income.

Major liabilities: None.

Gifts/travel: Travel, lodging and food for three trips to Hawaii, San Francisco and Dublin, Ireland, all paid for by the American Association of Airport Executives; travel, food and lodging for a trip to White Sulphur Springs, W.Va., paid by CSX, Inc.; and travel, food and lodging for a visit to Orlando, Fla., paid by the Association of American Railroads. The value of the trips was not stated.

COMMENT: That Rogers' buried the regulators in hundreds of pages of paper, rather than itemize certainly suggests a very close look at those documents are in order, particularly in light of the current FBI investigation into the finances of Rogers' senior brethren on the Appropriations Committee, Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-CA) and the recent Sunday New York Times story about Rogers' own dealings with homeland security appropriations.

Rep. Ed Whitfield, R-1st District

Earned income: $162,100 from the House; $16,000 retirement pay from CSX Corp.

Major assets: Three IRAs worth $450,003-$1 million; five investments worth $500,005-$1.25 million; numerous additional stocks and funds worth $235,011-$650,000; a condominium in Newport Beach, Calif., valued at $100,001-$250,000; commercial real estate in Huntington Beach, Calif., valued at $100,001-$250,000; a vacant lot at the Greenbriar Sporting Club in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va., valued at $100,001-$250,000; a lot in Madisonville, Ky., valued at $1,001-$15,000.

Major sources of unearned income: $15,001-$50,000 in rent from the Newport Beach condo, $5,001-$15,000 in rent from the Huntington Beach property; $15,009-$32,500 from investments.

Major liabilities: A mortgage of $100,001-$250,000 on the Greenbriar property.

COMMENT: Interesting that Whitfield owns a Newport Beach, California condo but in Kentucky only owns "a lot in Madisonville" worth between $1,000 and $15,000 and nothing more.

KY 1, 2 and 3

You may have noticed the new BlogAd in the middle-left margin by former Virginia Governor Mark Warner (D), a likely presidential candidate, entitled "Change the Map."

When you click on the link you'll see a pretty neat idea that they have, namely they're asking you which 2006 Democratic candidates they should support financially this fall. They're doing this through popular voting and the first round ends next week.

In Kentucky, Warner's group is already supporting former Rep. Ken Lucas (D), but you can nominate John Yarmuth (D-KY3), State Rep. Mike Weaver (D-KY2), or former Rep. Tom Barlow (D-KY1) with your vote.

If we use our collective strength to get one or more of these guys into the Top 10, they will receive a $5,000 contribution from Warner's PAC. I just signed-up and voted for Yarmuth. I encourage you to sign-up and vote for either Yarmuth, Weaver or Barlow.

Hopefully, each of the three campaigns will forward this around to their supporters to do the same.