Attorney General nominee Jack Conway (D) has just launched two television spots that are running across the state. The first one, Seeds, is playing heavily in Western Kentucky. The second one, Tough Ideas, is running in Louisville, Lexington and the eastern part of the state.
Seeds:
Tough Ideas:
Another excellent radio spot from the Jefferson County Teachers Association (JCTA) which is running heavily throughout western Kentucky reminding voters that Jack Conway (D) will take on the bad guys when he's elected attorney general.
JCTA has done a great job with their upbeat and memorable ads during this cycle, and such a stark contrast to the awful crap that the Republicans continue to ram down the voters' throats.
As we know, the Bluegrass Poll confirmed that Jack Conway (D) appears headed for a landslide victory in 42 days to be Kentucky's next attorney general over the frighteningly fanatical State Rep. Stan Lee (R).
But let's take a look at just a couple of the more telling cross-tabs of the poll.
First, Lee continues to offer the excuse for his deficit that Conway is simply better known than he is:
Lee said that given his low name recognition at the start of the campaign, he was encouraged by his numbers and felt he could overcome the deficit.
"We knew we'd have a real race on our hands when I got into it," he said, noting that Conway spent a lot of money and gained name recognition in a high-profile race against Republican Anne Northup five years ago in the third congressional district.
"It's just a question of getting my name out there," said Lee.
The problem with Lee's excuse is that Lee is actually much better known than Conway in both the 5th and 6th congressional districts, and in both districts Lee trails Conway. In the 5th CD, Conway leads by a 45-27 margin, and in the 6th CD -- Lee's home district -- Conway leads 43-35. So much for that excuse.
Finally, it's noteworthy that even among evangelical or born-again Christians, Conway leads by an impressive 45-30 margin, which is in-line with the poll's overall lead for Conway of 48-27. Seems that even Lee's "base" isn't buying his brand of intolerance and fanaticism.
Very nice.
Click here for the cross-tabs if you'd like to peruse them yourself.
The consistency in the polling for the general election has been pretty remarkable across the board.
This afternoon we learn that the Courier-Journal's Bluegrass Poll has Jack Conway (D) blasting the Republican's lunatic fringe nominee for attorney general -- State Rep. Stan Lee (R) -- by a 48 percent to 27 percent margin.
Here's the updated track of all independent polling done in that race:
| Poll | Date | Tested | Conway-D | Lee-R | Spread |
| Average | --- | --- | 39.7% | 23.3% | Conway +16.4 |
| Bluegrass Poll | 9/13-18 | 667 LV | 48% | 27% | Conway +21 |
| H-L/WTVQ | 9/10-13 | 600 LV | 43% | 26% | Conway +17 |
| Lane Report | 7/25-8/2 | 600 LV | 28% | 17% | Conway +11 |
You gotta like that trend if you're Conway.
What's equally amazing is that when you allocate the undecideds in these three polls, Conway leads 64-36 (Bluegrass), 62-38 (H-L/WTVQ), and 62-38 (Lane Report).
Can you say landslide?
After talking with dozens of people over the past month about the state of the races in this year's statewide elections, I wanted to offer my perspective and the conclusions I've drawn about where things stand and where they're likely headed with the election just 48 days away. I'd also love your thoughts on them, particularly where they differ from mine, so please post comments:
GOVERNOR
Simply, I think it's clear we're on the verge of a landslide ouster of incumbent Governor Fletcher (R) by former Lt. Governor Steve Beshear (D). The polling has been amazingly consistent in showing Fletcher trailing by 17-19 points and that margin is only likely increase as undecideds largely fall behind Beshear and the expected piling-on effect that these sort of blow-outs usually create.
It's clear that Fletcher's anti-gaming theme has garnered no traction whatsoever and Fletcher continues to have serious trouble galvanizing his Republican base (he's only getting about 70% of GOP voters, instead of the 90% he received in 2003) -- nevermind any hopes for garnering the required 25% of Democrats and 50% of independents he'll need to have a shot at winning in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 3:2 margin.
Finally, there continues to be considerable talk on both sides of the political aisle that Fletcher is still seriously struggling to raise money. It seems clear that Fletcher went on television a lot sooner that he could afford and that he's going to be very limited in how much he'll be able to buy in the final weeks, a problem compounded by the belief that the RGA's media campaign on Fletcher's behalf isn't going to last but a few more weeks (they too are aware of polling and aren't going to dump endless money down a rat hole), leaving Fletcher on his own.
In contrast, Beshear has only run a modest media campaign so far and appears ready to do what he did in the primary: unleash a very large buy in the final weeks to close-out the race. The possibility that Beshear is able to run two or even three times Fletcher's media buy in the last two weeks is very real. Also, unlike Fletcher, Beshear has been able to run positive, issues-based ads, in contrast to Fletcher's single-issue attacks. The likelihood that Beshear is able to close-out this race running a positive campaign is only going to widen the already large margins.
The only remaining questions for me are 1) does Fletcher's running mate, Robbie Rudolph (R), opt to write a personal check of $500,000 in hopes of averting a disastrous 20-point loss (and try to kepe the margin closer to 10-15); 2) how many more Republicans publicly separate themselves from Fletcher in the final month (for instance, does Senate President David Williams make one of his patented off-handed remark about a looming landslide?), and 3) does Fletcher come to the realization that a devastating loss is coming and he decides to close-out on a positive note in order to save whatever is left of his reputation in hopes of staying viable for future public roles he may be interested in undertaking down the road (though, I can't fathom he'd take another shot at political office)? I suspect the answers are "no" to items 1 and 3, and "yes" to item 2.
PREDICTION: While miracles occasionally happen in politics, it's going to take serious divine intervention to keep this race within single-digits. More likely, it seems that Beshear is headed for a landslide that will threaten former Gov. Wallace Wilkinson's (D) 331,490 vote margin in 1987, and he's poised to crack 60% of the vote on November 6th. I predict a final margin of 62-38.
ATTORNEY GENERAL
For the second straight cycle, Republicans foolishly nominated their worst-possible general election candidate in the fanatical State Rep. Stan Lee (R), a man who many Republicans are publicly stating is "too extreme" to be the state's highest-ranking law enforcement officer. Instead of nominating an experienced prosecutor like Commonwealth Attorney Tim Coleman (R), the Republican base opted for the unelectable lunatic fringe.
However, given the poisonous environment that Governor Fletcher (R) has left for Republicans this year, I don't think any Republican nominee could defeat Jack Conway (D) -- the budding superstar of the Democratic Party -- this fall.
This race has trended Conway's way from the beginning as he has dominated all facets of this election, from from name ID, fundraising, and support. The independent polling shows Conway with a growing double-digit lead, with both polls showing Conway winning 62-38, when undecideds are allocated.
PREDICTION: Conway will win big, garnering between 58 and 62 percent of the vote.
AUDITOR
This race isn't worthy of more than a few sentences. Even Republicans who dislike Auditor Crit Luallen (D) have told me there is no good option for them, as they will either vote for Luallen or just skip that race on their ballot altogether. One Republican argued that the job of Auditor is a serious one and not a place for inexperienced and unqualified candidates like Linda Greenwell (R), equating Greenwell as Auditor as tantamount to Jack Wood being elected attorney general (Wood was the GOP's 2003 nominee for AG).
PREDICTION: A landslide with Luallen garnering 59 to 64 percent of the vote.
TREASURER
This another race that has never been in question from the start, thanks largely to the disaster of Governor Fletcher (R) who is top-of-the-ticket. Independent polling showed Todd Hollenbach (D) with a 20-point lead over Melinda Wheeler (R), which is confirmed by internal polling.
Republicans that I've talk with about this race believe that Hollenbach will win big. One common theme I've heard is laughter over Wheeler's insistence that she's only running for the office so that she can try to eliminate it. Aside from the fact that no one believes Wheeler's position -- since she was scheming for a long time about running for statewide office -- they also ask why would anyone vote for a candidate that doesn't want the job in the first place?
Moreover, Wheeler has been unable to raise much money (a fact that Republicans have publicly acknowledged), and don't forget that her campaign manager is Brett Hall -- the man who disastrously advised Fletcher through a series of incomprehensible decisions during the first year of the Merit System scandal.
PREDICTION: Another landslide. Hollenbach will garner 60 percent of the vote, plus or minus a point or two.
COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE
The only solace for Republicans will be the re-election of Commissioner of Agriculture -- and UK basketball great -- Richie Farmer (R). Farmer won't win this race by a huge margin, since he'll have to contend with significant numbers of straight-ticket voting by Democrats, but no one expects anything but Richie's re-election.
The biggest question about Farmer is whether he is seriously considering a party-switch after the November election. It's no secret that Governor Fletcher and his minions have treated Farmer poorly over the past four years and there's lots of chatter that he's open to leaving the Republican ranks. No one believes that Farmer is a Republican for any deeply-held philosophical reasons, and leaving the party would not be a earth-shattering decision for him. Assuming November is the expected Democratic rout, I think there will be a concerted effort by top Democrats to reach-out to Farmer. Will he do it? I suspect only Richie knows.
PREDICTION: Farmer wins re-election easily, but garners only 53 to 57 percent of the vote.
SECRETARY OF STATE
Trey Grayson's (R) quest for re-election is the only competitive race on the November ballot, and the single biggest factor in determining whether Trey gets another four years is how badly Governor Fletcher loses.
The sentiment for a long time was that as long as Fletcher didn't lose by more than 10 points, Trey was going to be fine. Well, it now looks like Fletcher may lose by twice that amount and Republicans I've talked with are very, very concerned about whether Trey can survive the tsunami heading his way. I agree.
I had believed for a long time that Trey would have any problems with re-election. About a month ago, after watching Fletcher's numbers plummet and learning about internal numbers, I became convince that Trey was vulnerable.
Now, I truly believe this race is in the "Toss-Up" category, but still leaning towards Trey, but the trend-line is not good for him with seven weeks to go. Honestly, given the dynamics, I'd rather be Bruce Hendrickson (D) right now than Trey Grayson. I think the environment is noticeably deteriorating for him, and every Fletcher mis-step slices another chunk of support away from Trey.
Ultimately -- as mentioned in the Governor section about -- if Fletcher finds himself in final weeks getting outspent on television by Beshear by a margin of two or three, then Trey has serious problems and he will be dealing with three simultaneous dynamics working against him: 1) a very energized Democratic base who will turnout in fairly large numbers (like they did in the 2006 midterm elections) to clean house in Frankfort; 2) a demoralized Republican base which will find it hard to go vote in such a depressing election for them; and, 3) the significant number of energized Democrats that vote straight-party ticket.
There's no doubt that Trey has many things going for him -- he's young, smart, competent, has done a good job over the past four years, and is not the sort of Republican that alienates most Democrats. But this is a bad year to be running as a Republican. If things deteriorate for Fletcher in the final weeks, I would not be surprised if Trey took evasive actions and explicitly distances himself from Fletcher in the final weeks in the paid and earned media.
PREDICTION: I give Trey a slight edge today, but the trend line is not good for him and there's still seven weeks for his re-election hopes to further deteriorate. I'd predict a 53-47 victory for Trey today, but those number could easily reverse themselves before November 6th. I don't know what will happen.
The poll completed last week by the Herald-Leader/WTVQ confirmed that Jack Conway (D) maintains a hefty lead 17-point lead over State Rep. Stan Lee (R) in the race for attorney general. This is the second poll taken during the general election which confirms Conway's dominance over Lee:
| Poll | Date | Tested | Conway-D | Lee-R | Spread |
| Average | --- | --- | 35.5% | 21.5% | Conway +14 |
| H-L/WTVQ | 9/10-13 | 600 LV | 43% | 26% | Conway +17 |
| Lane Report | 7/25-8/2 | 600 LV | 28% | 17% | Conway +11 |
Noteworthy about these two polls is when you allocate the undecideds by the respective margins, you get the exact same results: Conway 62%, Lee 38%.
That says as voters get to know both candidates, Conway's margin remains steady. The latest poll is in line with internal polling I'm aware of which shows Conway ahead by about 20. I think the final margin will be about 62-38.
Another great development for Democrats and another case when we can thank Republicans for nominating their worst possible candidate for the general election, for the second straight cycle.
P.S. -- It's also noteworthy that the voters who know Lee the best, like him the least:
Conway leads Lee in every part of the state, including Lee’s home congressional district, the 6th. Lee performs worse in the 6th District (22 percent) than he does statewide. Conway is performing better in the district, at 46 percent, than statewide.
Conway’s support is strongest in his home district, the 3rd. He has 54 percent support in the Louisville district.
UPDATE (10:23 AM): One last thing: yesterday, former State Rep. Steve Nunn (R) gave us his personal insight and experience with Lee, and why he plans to vote for Conway:
Asked why he isn't supporting his former Republican House colleague state Rep. Stan Lee for attorney general, Nunn responded, "Because I know Stan Lee," adding that Democrat Jack Conway is better suited for the job. Describing Lee as being close to an "extremist" on social issues, Nunn said, "Sometimes, Stan doesn't see the big picture."
What an excellent testimonial.
Remember the 527 that was set-up by various members of organized labor during the primary with the intentions of going after Bruce Lunsford (D) called Working Families for Kentucky? Well, they just re-emerged for the general election and are going up with a radio spot throughout western and south-central Kentucky beginning Monday.
The deliberately folksy spot takes aim at Governor Fletcher (R) and attorney general nominee Stan Lee (R) on "Christian values." The ad criticizes both for "implying they are God's chosen candidates" and then reminds voters that Christian values also includes things like soaring health care costs, affordable education, and good jobs -- issues that neither candidate seems much interested in talking about.
UFCW's Chris Sanders cut the spot and, aside from being a member of organized labor in Kentucky, Chris also holds a Master of Divinity from The Southern Baptist Theological Seminary in Louisville.
Click here to listen to the spot.
I understand that this is their opening salvo and we can expect a number of very targeted hits between now and the election.
UPDATE (2:19 PM): Pol Watchers has a story on the ad. Here's an excerpt:
Asked if the purpose of the ad is to discredit Fletcher and Lee, Sanders said, “I’m a Christian. I’ve become disillusioned how some candidates wrap themselves in religion and then not acting likewise.”
Okay, let's get down to business and start peeling the rotten onion that Governor Fletcher (R) is trying to pass-off as his campaign platform.
This is pretty pathetic. As I said in my earlier post, an incumbent governor nearly four years into his failed term doesn't get to campaign on platitudes and his latest vision rooted firmly into yet another painful flip-flop. No, an incumbent governor has to run on his record. Fletcher would rather run from it and instead is trying to deceive the public on issues where he had a rather sudden (and shameless) metamorphosis just a few months ago: domestic partner benefits and gambling.
Let's leave the domestic partner flip-flop for another time. Instead, let's talk about gaming for a minute, and hope that the media in Kentucky consider asking Fletcher & Crooks to explain the disturbingly hypocritical facts behind their latest dishonest propaganda.
One of the latest babbling talking points coming from Fletcher, his Mini-Me (Robbie Rudolph) and the man hoping to be the state's first theocratic attorney general (Stan Lee) is that somehow Democrats are in the pockets of gaming industry. According to Fletcher:
Fletcher claimed Beshear, a Lexington attorney and former lieutenant governor, "would buy his way to get casinos in the state."
Asked after his speech what he meant by that, Fletcher said, "He will bring in a bunch of casino money.
"He has said he has to get it passed ... He will have the resources from Vegas to get it done."
Then lunatic Lee blasted Jack Conway (D) for taking a contribution from Harrah's in 2002:
Even though Harrah's Entertainment Inc, a Las Vegas, Nevada based corporation that owns Caesars Indiana, gave $1,000 to Jack Conway's 2002 Congressional campaign, I am now calling on him to do the right thing, and stand with me in opposition to Steve Beshear and his misguided plan to make Kentucky the next Nevada."
Tisk, tisk. So much for the 9th commandment about bearing false witness.
First, let's take a look at who else Harrah's has contributed money to in the past few years:
HARRAH'S ENTERTAINMENT IMPACTS PUBLIC POLICY
- Republican Party of Kentucky -- $2,500 (2006)
- Kentucky Republican State Senate Caucus -- $2,500 (2006)
- Rogers for Congress -- $1,000 (2006)
- Bluegrass Committee (McConnell) -- $1,000 (2004)
- Fletcher/Pence Inaugural Committee -- $5,000 (2004)
- HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $5,000 (2004)
- Bunning for Senate -- $2,000 (2004)
- Whitfield for Congress -- $1,000 (2000)
- Northup for Congress -- $1,000 (2000)
- Whitfield for Congress -- $5,000 (1998)
- Northup for Congress -- $7,500 (1998)
- Bunning for Senate -- $7,000 (1998)
Got that? Harrah's may have given Conway $1,000 in 2002, but they gave Kentucky Republicans -- including Fletcher's own inaugural committee -- more than $40,000, much of it a lot more recently than 2002. (Note -- the Harrah's link above only lists federal contributions. Click here and here for the state contributions to RPK, Fletcher, and the KYGOP Senate Caucus).
Also, maybe someone should ask the RPK about its June 2005 expenditures for a trip Las Vegas (when they stayed at Wynn Las Vegas Resort), right at the same time the RPK and the Republican Senate Caucus scored $5,000 from Harrah's. Isn't that worth asking, seeing that Fletcher and Lee think casino contributions are so important. Who went to Vegas at RPK expense?
And that's just Harrah's. See below for the rest of the big gaming PACs (and I deliberately left-off Churchill Downs, to be generous to the GOP). The gaming PACs just love those Kentucky Republicans...
Also, aside from the tens of thousands in casino cash that Fletcher, Pence, RPK, David Williams Senate Caucus, McConnell, Bunning, Northup, and Whitfield have taken over the years...let's not forget the lobbyists for the interests that want casinos in Kentucky and who are paid to lobby the legislative and executive branches of Kentucky government:
CHURCHILL DOWNS: Among its lobbyists are John McCarthy (former Republican Party chairman), Jeff Speaks (former top Hal Rogers staffer), Amy Wickliffe (former Chief of Staff to First Lady Glenna Fletcher), and Jason Bentley (former director of Fletcher Energy Policy office);
TURFWAY PARK: Its sole paid lobbyist is Ellen Williams (former Republican party chair and former director of Fletcher's GOLD office);
ELLIS PARK: Its sole paid lobbyist is Kelley Abell (former executive director of the Republican Party).
In each case, the primary mission of these race track lobbyists was expanded gaming. In fact, check out this old post about a fundraising that U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz) hosted last year for the Republican State Senate Caucus and all of their names show up on the host committee. How perfect.
Of course, none of this includes the massive amounts of money that Fletcher and his Republican hypocrites have taken from Kentucky's top casino backers such as Jerry Carroll, Bob Elliston, Bill Yung, Bill Butler. Apparently, they don't count.
And beyond the aggressive efforts of current Lt. Governor Steve Pence (R), who traveled the Commonwealth (before he dropped off the ticket) evangelizing how important casinos were to Kentucky, was this little morsel that is the cherry on top of this sundae. It comes from a September 1999 story in the Las Vegas Review-Journal about all the fundraising invites that the American Gaming Association (see their KY GOP contributions below) had received from members of Congress that week:
Las Vegas Review-Journal (NV)
September 27, 1999
Edition: FINAL EDITION
Pols reach out and put touch on gaming association
Author: Dave Berns
It was an average wave of solicitation cards and faxes that were received at American Gaming Association headquarters this past week in Washington, D.C.
Everyone from Rep. Steve Largent, R-Okla., an outspoken conservative who is close with gambling opponent James Dobson, to House Majority Whip Tom DeLay, R-Texas, who has ties to Venetian boss Sheldon Adelson, sought political donations from the casino industry's national lobbying arm. There were 25 invites in all.
For example:
-Donors giving $ 500 to $ 2,000 apiece were invited to an afternoon of 'tennis and camaraderie' with Largent, a rising star on the Republican right.
'Proceeds benefit Leadership for America's Future PAC (LEADPAC), a leadership PAC chaired by Congressman Steve Largent,' read a single-page invite. 'Contributions can be federal hard, nonfederal soft or individual.'
-Rep. Floyd Spence, R-S.C., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, invited potential $ 500 donors to his annual South Carolina barbecue at the Capitol Hill Club.
If you're unable to attend just check the box reading, 'I'm sorry. I will be unable to attend but am enclosing my check in the amount of $ '
-Rep. Ernie Fletcher, R-Kent., sent invites for a $ 1,000-a-person golfing fund raiser at the Peninsula Golf Resort in Lancaster, Ky.
Prizes were to be presented for a hole-in-one contest, the longest drive, coming closest to the pin.
No mention was made as to whether any specialized legislation would be a part of the prize package.
According to his federal campaign reports, it seems that Congressman Fletcher never did get any of the gaming money he sought with his fundraising invitation. But bless his little heart for trying.
We can disagree with whether casinos are good or not for the state. That's a legitimate debate. But we don't need a lecture about casino contributions from such a pack of shameless hypocritical Republicans who plainly see that their days in office are numbered. There is so much more to the gaming hypocrisy (including interesting tidbits about the casino preferences of high-rolling blow-hards like Senate President David Williams (R)), but I'll save those for another time.
Meanwhile, enjoy the list of all the Kentucky Republicans who have happily bathed in casino contributions over the years...
HARRAH'S ENTERTAINMENT IMPACTS PUBLIC POLICY
P.S. -- It's good to be back...
Almost exactly three years ago, Governor Fletcher (R) had just departed for a long overseas trip to China and Japan just as a criminal investigation into official misconduct exploded.
Rather than learn from history, Fletcher and his merry band of incompetents (which still includes previously fired Communications Director Brett Hall) seem intent on repeating it and now it seems that someone on the inside is abusing their power to help settle scores with political enemies (why does this sound so familiar?) -- just as Fletcher leaves for a nine-day trip to China and Japan.
Also, it's amazing that a person whose background is communicating with the media would flat-out lie to them like this, especially on something so easily provable. What a true moron.
Note to media: There has been chatter in Republican circles for months that Hall has returned to the Fletcher camp in a formal way and is paid to work on his campaign (though most likely fully hidden from campaign finance disclosure as a subcontractor to Fletcher's media firm, or another consultant) and the time has long past to demand that Fletcher come clean on whether the man he had to fire a year ago for his over-the-top behavior has been welcomed back.
Blogger's Actions Bring Scrutiny
Phone records posted on Web
By Joseph Gerth, The Courier-Journal
Attorney General Greg Stumbo's office has launched a preliminary investigation into how political blogger Brett Hall obtained state phone records he used in an effort to embarrass two Democratic candidates for state offices.
Deputy Attorney General Pierce Whites said the office will decide whether to initiate a full-blown inquiry after the preliminary investigation is complete.
The records involve more than 19,000 written phone messages taken by a receptionist in Gov. Paul Patton's administration for Patton Cabinet Secretary Crit Luallen and others in her office. The Fletcher administration has classified similar records as exempt from open-records law.
[...]
Hall said last week that he had obtained the phone messages through an open-records request.
But The Courier-Journal requested a copy of Hall's open-records request and the state's response and was told yesterday in a letter from Fletcher's deputy general counsel that Hall had filed no such request.
Contacted yesterday, Hall said he had lied because he didn't want to reveal his source. "I just didn't tell you the truth," he said, saying that he got the records from "a secret source. Someone I knew provided it to me."
Jodi Whitaker, a spokeswoman for Fletcher, said, "We have no idea who Brett Hall's source is, or where this information came from."
Hall said he didn't take the records with him when he resigned as communications director last June after he used an obscenity in answering a reporter's question and said that Republican leaders were conspiring against Fletcher.
[...]
The administration also rejected a Courier-Journal request for written messages taken for Fletcher at his office and at the governor's mansion, saying the records aren't subject to open-records law.
[...]
Spokesmen for both Conway and Luallen called for an independent investigation into how Hall got the records and whether any laws were broken.
"This is outrageous. State workers, on state time, gathered and then illegally provided exempt privileged information to the fired former communications director for the governor, who is now using it for partisan purposes on Fletcher's behalf," said Jeff Derouen, a spokesman for Luallen. "State and federal laws may have been broken."
Update (2:30 pm): What's even more breathtaking in its audacity is that Hall/Fletcher are publicly releasing materials on their political enemies that the Fletcher administration itself refuses to release per Joe Gerth's own open records request.
What a bunch a shameless political hacks who spit on the public trust time and again with this constant abuse of power. It's also why early polls show Steve Beshear (D) eviscerating Fletcher. The public is tired of this crap.
A prominent Republican, who had supported Anne Northup (R) in the primary, offered his take on the fall election in an e-mail exchange this morning. Take close note of the last paragraph, as well. Is it possible that the man who couldn't win a seat on the RPK's executive committee could nevertheless become its chairman? If that happened (and I realize it's speculation at this point), could the RPK and KDP be going in a more different direction this fall?
Oddly we may be looking at a repeat of 03 except for the other party. If Beshear is polling in the low to mid 60's with Fletcher getting no traction, I'm sure he'll start trying to help the down ticket candidates (Ag Commissioner not withstanding). Fletcher did this in 03 when he starting taking Grayson on the bus with them in the last month and I'm certain that's what put him over the top. The AG slot is pretty well sewed up, unless Conway gets a little cocky or arrogant (he loves humor and uses it effectively, but one mis quote could cost him 5 to 10 points), but putting Conway on the bus or campaign trail actually helps Beshear even further in Louisville and some of the other metro cities he will need to carry strongly. In the end, Fletcher will make this a race about gaming and I don't think he can win it on that alone.
The interesting dynamic is Forgy. While he's a loon, I know McConnell and some others don't want him to be the Governor's hatchet man in the coming months. Look for McConnell to start ramping up his campaign in mid to late summer (seriously, with people on the ground) in an effort to forge off any serious challenger. Also, look for him to have raised over 10 million by year end. (I already know of several events being held out of state and he wants to continue momentum into the fall).
And last but not least, how's this one for a real rumor? (I've only heard it once and it was speculation, but I won't put anything past Fletcher and his minions) what about Forgy being nominated as GOP Chairman just through November. It gives Fletcher and Forgy access to everything they want and allows Forgy to make contacts throughout the state and monitor the situation on the Gov's behalf all the while getting to criticize McConnell for not stepping up.
Democrats have to be tickled that Republican Party primary voters again nominated their most unelectable and polarizing candidate as the Attorney General candidate in the form of State Rep. Stan Lee (R) (recall this post about Lee's scary fanaticism).
Meanwhile, not only is there no third party candidate to pick-off Democratic votes (like Gatewood Galbraith did in 2003), but 2007 nominee Jack Conway (D) is no Greg Stumbo (D) when it comes to controversy and perception of political baggage. With Governor Fletcher (R) at the top of the Republican ticket, it's hard to imagine the fall election not being a strong thumping by Conway.
Here's what Conway said last night about the fall match-up:
"I am not going to get into a mustache growing contest with Stan Lee because his is quite impressive. But as I've said before, I have grown a sense of decency, respect and tolerance and that is something that Stan Lee has yet to grow."
Democrats have to feel good about keeping the attorney general's office in Democratic hands this year, as Jack Conway (D) bested all five of his opponents combined (from both parties) in fundraising:
Jack Conway (D) -- $239,441 raised
Robert Bullock (D) -- $33,881 raisedStan Lee (R) -- $106,476 raised
Tim Coleman (R) -- $94,185 raised
Philip Kimball (R) -- $1,440 raised
Jon Larson (R) -- $1,158 raised
The total of Jack's five opponents raised less ($237,140) than he did ($239,441). Considering that the Republican emerging from their primary will surely be broke on May 22, you've to like Jack's chances in the fall...
Attorney General candidate Jack Conway (D) continues his steady gathering of momentum in becoming the Democratic Party's nominee this fall.
Change to Win Kentucky today announced its unanimous support of Jack Conway for Attorney General in next month’s Democratic primary. Steve Neal, the organization’s Chairman, said “ Jack was the overwhelming choice for our coalition. His broad-based knowledge of the law and his former position as Deputy Secretary of Governor Patton’s Administration uniquely qualifies him as the Commonwealth’s next Attorney General. Character, integrity, compassion and intelligence are attributes you look for in an Attorney General. Jack has them all.”
I'm not aware of any polling done on Republican race between Stan Lee (R) and Tim Coleman (R), but I am hoping that Kentucky Republicans are foolish enough to nominate someone as unelectable as Lee as their nominee to be the state's top law-enforcement officer because the material on Lee is seemingly endless. I can't wait to watch (and help) Conway dismantle Lee before our eyes.
Attorney General candidate Jack Conway (D) received two significant endorsements today from the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) Local 227 and the Louisville Greater Central Labor Council.
The Louisville Greater Central Labor Council
United Food & Commercial Workers Local 227
back Jack Conway for Attorney General
(Friday, February 23, 2007) Jack Conway received the endorsement of the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 227 and the recommendation to the state AFL-CIO by the Louisville Greater Central Labor Council for his bid to become Kentucky ’s next Attorney General.
“I am honored to have the backing of these two great organizations that represent working men and women in Kentucky ,” said Jack Conway. “I am running for Attorney General to promote safety, ensure justice and to champion programs that make Kentucky a better place to live, work and raise a family.”
Gary Best, President of the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 227 stated, "The Executive Board and I are proud to endorse Jack Conway for Attorney General of Kentucky. Jack's unparalleled integrity and character makes him a natural choice for Attorney General. Kentuckians will be well served by his knowledge of the office and his passion and energy for public service. He will protect the public trust." The United Food and Commercial Workers represent more than 35,000 active and retired working families throughout the Commonwealth.
Ken Koch, vice chair of Louisville ’s Central Labor Council said, “Jack Conway has a strong record for fighting for Kentucky ’s working families. Jack is principled and passionate and will make Kentucky proud. We could not be more proud to recommend Jack Conway to the leadership of the state AFL-CIO.” The Greater Louisville Central Labor Council represents 52 affiliates and 17 AFL-CIO International Unions.
“It is poignant to receive the backing of these great organizations in a week in which one of my possible opponents voted against an increase in the minimum wage,” added Conway . “I fully support an increase in the minimum wage because it is time to move Kentucky forward.” The Kentucky House of Representatives passed House Bill 305, an increase in the minimum wage, by a vote of 89 to 10.
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There seems to be some serious concerns by the state's commonwealth attorneys about a provision that the Fletcher administration was able to get slipped into an amendment to Senate Bill 88 (Tighten Rules Against Drug Fraud) that effectively shifts who administers forfeitured drug money from the Attorney General's office to the Justice Cabinet. They believe this effort is Fletcher's payback for the commonwealth attorneys' refusal to assist him to getting Attorney General Stumbo (D) to stop the Merit hiring investigation. Recall this story from last year.
Expect a fight on this matter now that it has passed the Senate and has been sent to House. (Jack Conway should take notice, as well)
Here are a couple e-mails I've received over the past few days from a very credible legal source: :
Rumor is a going through Commonwealth Attorney circles that Senate Bill 88 has had language inserted in it for the purpose of punishing the Commonwealth Attorneys for not trying to get Stumbo to stop the merit system investigation. I'm going to take a look at the bill, in particular the changes to the forfeiture laws.
Under current law, when drug money is forfeited, it goes into a trust fund administered by the Prosecutor's Advisory Council which is part of the Attorney General's office. PAC is pretty easy going when the CAs call and request the forfeiture funds be set a certain way.
Under Senate Bill 88, the forfeiture fund would be administered by the Justice Cabinet, subject to directions from the Office of Financial Management. IIRC, both offices are more or less controlled by appointments by the Governor. The bill gives the Governor the power control what happens to drug forfeiture money. I'm a little surprised Stumbo went along with it.
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Been more talk of Senate Bill 88 today. The Commonwealth Attorneys are really getting worried over the shifting of control of the drug forfeiture money to the Justice Cabinet.
It's not just the money, it's more of a sliding slope worry. The last few years, maybe since Fletcher came into office, there's been talk of trying to get the Commonwealth Attorneys under the control of the Justice Cabinet. The CAs have resisted on two grounds-
1) they're Constitutional officers and thus feel they shouldn't be under the control of lackey of the Governor.
2)They don't want to be in the position where the Secretary of the Justice Cabinet might call them up to "Offer" suggestions on how to prosecute certain cases. For example "Why Mr Larson, John Smith, who is a long time friend and contributor to our beloved governor, had a son arrested for dealing cocaine. On by the way, we were talking about the budget the other day and how we plan on dividing it up among you Commonwealth Attorneys. Now how are we going to help poor little John Smith Jr."
Now that may be a little over the top, but look at how the Fletcher administration tried to subtly (well for them anyway) intimidate the Commonwealth Attorneys when the Merit System investigation started. Giving the Justice Cabinet any further control over the CAs just lays the groundwork for more political pressure from the powers that be.
We all know that State Rep. Stan Lee (R) is an intolerant bigot but who knew he was so incapable of offering a reason why he should be elected attorney general:
"I am going to win this race because I have been an attorney for twenty years, which is also the same amount of time it would take little Jack Conway to grow a moustache."
Assuming Lee can win his own primary, how much fun will it be to watch Jack blast this guy in the fall?
Is it possible that Kentucky Republicans are so short-sighted that they offer-up Jack Wood and Stan Lee as their nominees for attorney general in successive cycles? Could Democrats be that lucky?
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