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Fletcher Only Gubernatorial Candidate to Attend Tomorrow's GOP "Unity Rally"

u·ni·ty [yoo-ni-tee]

1. the state of being one; oneness. 
2. a whole or totality as combining all its parts into one. 
3. the state or fact of being united or combined into one, as of the parts of a whole; unification. 

Seems a little odd that the Republican Party of Kentucky's unity rally set for Saturday won't include two of the three gubernatorial candidates. Apparently, there won't be much unity.

From Pol Watchers:

The two Republicans defeated by Gov. Ernie Fletcher in the GOP primary for governor will not stand beside him during a unity rally scheduled for 6 p.m. Saturday at party headquarters in Frankfort.

Instead of attending, former congresswoman Anne Northup will send a "positive letter," said Ted Jackson, a senior advisor to her campaign.

"For us to be there might be a bit of a distraction," Jackson said. "This is their day."

Jackson said Northup will not play a role in Fletcher's campaign. "She's not going to take an active role in politics for the foreseeable future," he said.

Instead of attending the rally, Jackson said he will be "going fishing" on Saturday. Northup's running mate, state Rep. Jeff Hoover of Russell Springs, has also sent a letter in support of Fletcher.

Blue Grass Poll

The Courier-Journal has just released its numbers from its Blue Grass Poll taken May 10 through May 15. It shows the gubernatorial primary races as follows:

Beshear 27%
Lunsford 21%
Henry 13%
Richards 7%
Galbraith 4%
Hensley 1%

Fletcher 41%
Northup 26%
Harper 10%

My quick thoughts: 1) The poll began a week ago, which means it would not have taken full account of strong surges of late by Beshear and Northup; 2) Fletcher has to be terrified that he's only at 41% just a week from the election as the INCUMBENT, knowing that late undecideds rarely break for an incumbent, not to mention what would happen to him in a runoff; 3) how many of Harper voters will cast a vote for the guy who can't win instead of Northup who has a shot?

Harper: Northup Pulls Ahead (Bartleman, Paducah Sun)

From Bill Bartleman's story in this morning's Paducah Sun:

Harper: Northup Pulls Ahead
By Bill Bartleman, The Paducah Sun

Paducah businessman Billy Harper said the race for the Republican nomination for governor is changing, and that his internal polls show that former congresswoman Anne Northup is slightly ahead of Gov. Ernie Fletcher after being down by nearly 20 points.

Harper said that some Republican leaders have suggested that he drop out of the race and support Northup to keep Fletcher from getting the nomination because they don’t think he can win in November.

But Harper said he won’t drop out. “The polls also show that I’m moving up and within striking distance,” he said in an interview Friday. “I’m in it to stay. People are just starting to get focused on the election. I plan to peak on election day ... and it is logical to think I’ll benefit because both of my opponents are going negative.”

[...]

“You don’t go negative if you have a big lead,” Harper said.

...Harper said it is difficult to run against an incumbent governor who benefits from the resources of his public office. However, he said voters are getting tired of seeing Fletcher traveling around the state handing out cardboard checks for state-funded projects.

“I think people see right through that,” Harper said.

Source: Billy Harper (R) Releases Internal Polling To Media Showing Anne Northup (R) Now Leading Governor Fletcher (R)

A source has told me that Republican gubernatorial candidate Billy Harper (R) has confirmed that his latest internal polling shows Anne Northup (R) now leading Governor Fletcher (R) and this will be reported by the print media tomorrow.

This is awful news for Fletcher, considering the source is not the Northup camp but another gubernatorial candidate who is acting against his own interest by acknowledging this late Northup surge. 

This also makes me wonder (just my speculation), whether Harper is waiting for until next week to make a final determination as to whether or not to drop-out and support Northup. Why else confirm internals like this?

Stay tuned. It's going to be a wild 11 days...

Update (7:15 pm): I'm told by a reporter that Harper didn't disclose the actual poll numbers, but did confirm that Northup is leading the pack in his most recent internal poll.

Northup On Fletcher's Heels With 11 Days To Go

Lots of chatter among some Republican insiders that Anne Northup (R) has dramatically closed the gap against Governor Fletcher (R) in past week or so in the latest polling. Seems that the rise in the polls for Fletcher over the past few months were not only short-lived, but was the result of very soft support. Now that Northup has come out with strong and effective ads which remind Republican primary voters what they will have to overcome this fall by the Democratic nominee, it seems many are taking a second look at Northup.

The looming question for me is whether Billy Harper (R) remains in this race if his late polling fails to show any significant movement while Northup and Fletcher go after each other (which was his only path to victory)? I suspect he won't stay in and will endorse Northup, putting her over-the-top on May 22. But that's just my own speculation. I've not heard anything indicating that is likely to happen.

Both Larry Dale Keeling and Ronnie Ellis note the clear dynamic change in Republican primary in their latest offerings.

Keeling:

The Northup and Fletcher campaigns are slinging ads and press releases at each other like one is a Hatfield and the other is a McCoy.

All of which leads me to believe there is a poll (or two) out there showing Northup closing the gap significantly or even taking the lead since the latest SurveyUSA numbers came out 10 days ago. That's the most logical explanation for the vehemence of the response from a Fletcher campaign that heretofore shrugged its collective shoulders at Northup's negative comments and criticisms.

Ellis:

Candidates with 20-point leads cruising to election – as the Fletcher campaign claims it is – don’t often go negative against their opponents – as the Fletcher campaign has done.

Northup Responds To Fletcher's Desperate Attack

I can't help but believe that Governor Fletcher's (R) own tracking is showing this race to be moving in the wrong direction for him in the final two weeks. Why else would he go on the attack and so foolishly hit Anne Northup (R) on congressional franking privileges when his past is so littered with complaints about the same thing, not to mention that he exceeded her in spending? Tells me there a great deal of concern over at Fletcher-Rudolph.

From Northup-Hoover campaign manager Michael Clingaman:

The Fletcher campaign’s statement is clear evidence that their campaign is desperate and spiraling out of control. It is becoming clearer every day why this Governor is so disliked by his own party. Thankfully Anne Northup and Jeff Hoover are offering a chance for the Republican Party to have a fresh start. We hope that instead of slinging mud that Ernie Fletcher’s campaign will directly address their abuse of taxpayer money.

Is Billy Harper (R) really prepared to play spoiler? Seems like it...

Gloves Off In Debate For Governor (Gerth, Courier-Journal)

Joe Gerth has an excellent story about last night's Republican gubernatorial debate in the Courier-Journal. With two weeks to go, I sense a significant momentum shift in the race in Anne Northup's (R) direction and she appears to be hitting her stride of late.

Will it be enough to force a runoff? Will Harper stay around until the end, or will he follow Jonathan Miller's (D) lead and throw his support behind Northup to prevent the politically crippled Governor Fletcher (R) from becoming his party's nominee?

With just two weeks remaining before the May 22 primary, Northup, a former U.S. representative, broadened her attack on Fletcher, branching from the merit-hiring scandal into criticisms of the legal defense fund and Fletcher's use of state resources to campaign.

Northup even used a question about incorporating into school curricula the idea of "intelligent design," the theory that some complex biological structures and other aspects of nature show evidence of a creator, to launch an attack on Fletcher.

She argued he should have been working more to advance math and science rather than an issue such as intelligent design, which plays to Fletcher's conservative Christian political base.

[...]

Fletcher said he chose to keep secret the fundraising for his legal defense fund, which he is using to pay off lawyer bills from his indictment, because he didn't want to release the names of donors while Attorney General Greg Stumbo, whom he has accused of a political witch hunt, remains in office.

...But Northup hammered him, saying that "everything should be disclosed" and that Republicans deserve a candidate who won't be the focus of Democratic attacks on ethics throughout the election.

Even Harper, a Paducah businessman who has tried throughout the race to stick to his message of lower taxes and educational initiatives, was mildly critical.

"I think it's important that any fundraising that's used directly or indirectly for a candidate be under public scrutiny," he said. "Whatever you call a fund, whatever it's developed for, we need to be totally open with the public so they can see where the money is coming from."

[...]

Fletcher often took state aircraft to remote parts of the state to attend official events that were followed by a campaign fundraiser or speech. Last week, he agreed to repay the state more than $19,000 to offset the cost.

"Both of us have been in Congress," Northup said. "Both of us know there is a bright line between official costs and campaign costs and this administration, until they were caught, did not offer to pay it back. And that's a perfect example of not having a personal ethical standard."

Millionaires Not Worth A Dime As Gubernatorial Prospects (Brock, Advocate-Messenger)

Herb Brock has an excellent political column in the latest Danville Advocate-Messenger about the two guys trying to buy this election with their own money and the one trying to do the same thing with taxpayer money:

Off The Record: Millionaires Not Worth A Dime As Gubernatorial Prospects
By Herb Brock, Danville Advocate-Messenger

If you plan to vote later this month in the Democratic or Republican gubernatorial primary, and your sole sources of information have been TV and radio commercials, you probably have concluded that there are only two candidates - Democrat Bruce Lunsford and Republican Billy Harper.

Other candidates have run ads - such as Democrats Steve Beshear and Jonathan Miller and Republicans Anne Northrup and His Incumbency, Ernie Fletcher - but Lunsford and Harper have dominated the air waves. And it will be a sad thing if their commercial domination translates into electoral domination.

In my view, these two millionaires are not worth a dime as gubernatorial prospects.

[...]

While Lunsford and Harper are spending obscene amounts of their personal fortunes on their campaigns, the real obscenity of this election is the amount of tax money that His Incumbency is spending on his. While Lunsford and Harper are blowing their money, Fletcher is spending yours.

The governor has been going around the state - including several stops in this area - handing out state checks for a variety of projects. The governor can argue that these projects were approved by various state and federal bodies and that they were in the pipeline, but isn't funny how the pipeline suddenly started flowing so fast just before the primary.

But Fletcher isn't the first incumbent for public office to use government projects and funds as political tools that, in effect, are an attempt to buy an election. It's just that his doing it is yet another example of how he has violated his 2003 campaign promise to do away with "business as usual" in Frankfort. Under Fletcher, business has been more usual than ever before.

Edwin Edwards (D) v. David Duke (R), Redux?

As I'm sure you know, the latest Survey USA poll was released yesterday.

I wanted to vomit.

Not because the numbers for candidates I am rooting for were not as good as other recent surveys I've seen (though certainly that's part of it). Mainly I wanted to vomit out of a profound sadness that Kentucky primary voters are inclined to nominate (runoff notwithstanding) the two biggest pariahs to face each other in the fall (Ernie Fletcher and Bruce Lunsford), setting up a fall campaign that would be tantamount to the 1991 Louisiana Governor's race between the crook, Edwin Edwards (D), and the racist, David Duke (R).

That year, Louisiana voters were faced with such an unimaginable choice between two evils that bumper stickers on cars contained slogans such as "Vote for the Crook. It's Important," and "Vote for the Lizard, not the Wizard." It's amazing to me that the two candidates solidly opposed by the thoughtful core of each political party could possibly be leading with three weeks to go, albeit with percentages of just 29% and 46%, hardly indicators of strong support.

Though, I can't fathom being faced with such a situation this fall because 1) there's no chance that I would consider a vote for Bruce Lunsford in the fall regardless of who the Republican nominate (my party loyalty stops with him), and 2) there's no chance that I could ever cast a vote for someone so incompetent and dishonest as Fletcher, a man who is effectively Judas in Jesus clothing.

(Note: While I feel almost that way about Steve Henry (D), at least I believe, based on his demonstrated history, that Henry is a Democrat. A dishonest, pathological, unethical, manipulative, cheating, thieving Democrat...but a Democrat. Hence, I would vote for Henry over Fletcher...at least. Lunsford isn't a Democrat, he's a political opportunist. His political contributions, his support of Fletcher and other Kentucky Republicans, his long-time friendship with McConnell, his clear anti-union practices over the years, give us every reason to doubt that man has any core political beliefs (just like Fletcher), yet alone Democratic ones.)

So, if Survey USA is accurate, this will likely be the first election in my lifetime where the best choice is to exercise my right not to cast a vote for governor. There are plenty of excellent candidates running down-ballot that I am eager to support, but I will certainly skip the first race if I must choose between two pariahs. There is no "lesser" between the two that I've yet to discern.

So, yes, I was disappointed with Survey USA. While I have some serious qualms with some of its findings (like an unbelievably low 7% undecided among Democrats), I'm saddened more than anything.

As far as candidates go, they should always trust their own pollsters. You don't spend tens of thousands of dollars to do your own research and then throw it away when an independent poll contradicts it. If that was the case, John Yarmuth (D) would have closed-down his shop after the Bluegrass Poll showed him trailing Anne Northup (R) by six points with barely a week to go. Independent polls are very useful in that they help you see trends. They are powerful when they confirm what your poll tells you. But when they vastly depart from your own poll, you don't change course. You keep fighting. You stick to your campaign plan. And then you hope that your next poll doesn't mimic the independent poll. But there are still three weeks to go and we've not even reached Derby yet.

But if Survey USA is to believed, we ought to brush-up on our Edwards v. Duke history and see how Louisianans dealt with it. Ultimately, Edwards won that election but, not unexpectedly, was later convicted on 17 federal criminal counts including racketeering and extortion and is in federal prison until 2011. Meanwhile, David Duke, who also found himself in legal hot water, has most recently been seen in Tehran at a conference held by Iranian President Ahmadinejad questioning the Holocaust, where he told the delegation that gas chambers were not used to kill six million Jews. Louisiana voters were right on the money about these two characters.

God save the Commonwealth...

Billy Harper (R) Reports Spending $4.6 Million In Race For Governor

Question: When you spend $4.6 million on a gubernatorial bid, you're still a month away from the primary, you're still polling in the teens, and are in distant third-place in a three-way race, shouldn't you start concluding that the voters just aren't drawn to your product?

It's the question that Billy Harper (R) is facing now.

If he truly thinks that Governor Fletcher (R) is not who Republicans should nominate for the fall, you would think that a good businessman like him would see only one remaining option, rather than continue to pour his hard-earned millions down a rat hole.

From AP:

Businessman and race car driver Billy Harper has spent more on the Republican gubernatorial primary race than the two candidates he's running against combined.

In a financial statement filed late Tuesday with the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance, Harper reported spending nearly $4.6 million since entering the primary race last year.

Republican Lieutenant Governor Debate And The "What If Something Happened" Question

Did anyone watch the Republican lieutenant governor candidates debate on KET last night? I watched the first 30 minutes and it couldn't have been clearer to me that Jeff Hoover (R) is the only one of the three that I would have any faith in being one heartbeat away. While I don't agree often with Hoover on political philosophy, the man knows the issues, has experience and clearly understands state government. He demonstrated that last night.

There was a question that reporter Ronnie Ellis asked Dick Wilson (R) (Billy Harper's (R) running mate), that really made me pause and think for a moment. Apparently, Billy Harper has vowed not to give-up drag racing even if becomes governor and Ellis asked Wilson how he could convince voters that should something happen to a Governor Harper, that he would be capable of taking over the reigns and stepping in as governor since Wilson doesn't have a lick of experience.

Wilson's answer was worthless. He argued that drag racing was safe and I don't recall an answer to Ellis' question. But that made me think about the lieutenant governor role, especially given the recent serious accident of New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, or the sudden death of a sitting governor like Indiana's Frank O'Bannon, or the sudden resignation of New Jersey Governor Jim McGreevy. Who could step in as lieutenant governor and competently take over? Who would you trust, not only to be governor, but who could handle a Hurricane Katrina-like disaster?

On the Republican side, Hoover is the only one I'd have any confidence in. Wilson seems like a nice man who should not be on a major ticket for high office. And Robbie Rudolph is one of the scariest, smarmiest politicians around. He exudes sleaze, dishonesty and pettiness. Everything we've read about him shows his obsession with retaliating against political enemies and not about doing the people's business. He honestly frightens me as possible elected official and someone I would have little confidence in properly, ethically, handling state government.

Thankfully, four of the five major Democratic lieutenant governor candidates are as rock-solid as Hoover as far as having the confidence of stepping in and running the show in an emergency. Regardless of which candidate you support, I think we'd all agree that Irv Maze, Greg Stumbo, Daniel Mongiardo, and John Y. Brown, III are all capable of assuming the office on a moment's notice.

But does anyone feel that way about Renee True? 

Sadly, I think there have too many recent instances where the number two is forced into action and must make crucial decisions immediately. While the gubernatorial candidates will be assessed by the voters, is anyone thinking about whether the LG could handle the job if disaster strikes?

Which lieutenant governor would you trust to deal with a repeat of the The Great Flood of 1937 when 60% of Louisville was under water and without power for weeks? And what if, God-forbid, terrorists managed to sneak a dirty bomb into the Kentucky Derby or among the 800,000 that attend Thunder over Louisville?

Serious, I think we need to think carefully about such scenarios when electing our slates...

Chatter

With all the usual caveats, I wanted to pass along a couple of e-mails that readers sent over the weekend. I can't vouch for the accuracy of either, but I offer them for discussion and any context/background you can provide:

Mark,

Here is a tip for you to follow up on if you can.  Two of the administrators of Fletcher's Facebook entry (Re-elect Ernie Fletcher '07) are non-merit employees working in his communications office -- Dan Bayens and Grant Friedman.  I have noticed several entries that have been posted by these two between the hours of 8:00 am and 4:30 pm Mondays-Fridays.  If posted from their state computers, or even from the Governor's Office on different computers, that is definitely a violation of Executive Branch ethics rules.

                     

Mark - I'm a native Kentuckian living in DC and a huge fan of your site. You keep me plugged into the political scene there.

I saw your post about Mitch this morning and wanted to pass along some confidential info from a good friend who works for an "interest group" that plays both sides of the political fence. They completed some polling in KY a few days ago which showed McConnell potentially vulnerable in 2008, and may explain his torrid fundraising pace. He said Mitch's hard re-elect was just 37% but they did not test specific opponents. But as you wrote, can Dems offer a real opponent? I doubt it.

Mainly the poll tested the governor's race. It showed your boy Miller with a bump but the numbers were not out of whack with the recent polling you've blogged about. They had it Henry 21%, Lunsford 18%, Beshear 16%, Richards/Miller 12%. Not sure about Gatewood or undecideds. 

On the R side, showed Harper stronger than other polls: Fletcher 38%, Northup 32%, Harper 20%. Said Fletcher loses to both Northup and Harper in a runoff so he must crack 40% in May. Is Harper in the race for good? He could be a real spoiler.

Survey USA

Mark Hebert reports that Survey USA will be releasing the second round of numbers in the governor's race this afternoon. Presumably, the poll was taken over the weekend. While there's no reason to believe we'll see any significant movements in the numbers, I am looking forward to the numbers on three candidates: Governor Fletcher (R), Bruce Lunsford (D), and Steve Henry (D).

Both Fletcher and Lunsford have gone on the air with significant buys, so one would expect to see upward movement from both of them since their ads were positive, they weren't competing with any other opponents on the air, and each purchased hefty media buys. The lack of strong movement for either of these two should signal concerns.

Also, Henry has been the subject of a number of tough stories in the Louisville and Lexington media markets concerning his campaign finance controversy, so I'll be looking for any erosion in his support in those areas in particular.

Overall, I don't expect much change in the numbers or the status of the horserace, but there will be a few items that should prove instructive with seven weeks to go.

Recall that the previous Survey USA taken March 3-5 showed:

Democrats
Henry 26%
Beshear 15%
Richards 13%
Miller 8%
Lunsford 7%
Galbraith 6%
Hensley 2%

Republicans
Fletcher 33%
Northup 31%
Harper 13%

Billy Harper's (R) Campaign Manager Leaves

Well, this is not a good sign just eight weeks from an election.

From Mark Hebert:

Republican gubernatorial candidate Billy Harper has lost his campaign manager.

Stan Pulliam has gone back to his home in Oregon, accordiing to Harper's spokesman...Edelen says Pulliam resigned and was not asked to leave. He says it was a personal decision...The Paducah businessman has failed, so far, to break 15% in the polls.

Republican Gubernatorial Primary

Ronnie Ellis has this succinct look at Republican gubernatorial primary:

On the Republican side, candidates sound like broken records. Gov. Ernie Fletcher quotes questionable job growth numbers and says he changed the culture in Frankfort (despite three indictments and a blanket pardon). He takes credit for legislation on which he had little or no influence. Anne Northup says Ernie can’t win but she can and finally offers positions on education and health care Friday. Billy Harper rails against the alternative minimum calculation, says education is good, and says Northup and Fletcher are just politicians while he’s a businessman.

A Suggestion For Billy Harper (R)?

Maybe I'm misreading John David Dyche's column in today's Courier-Journal, but it sure seemed like a gentle and respectful nudge for Billy Harper (R) to consider dropping out of the gubernatorial primary and supporting former U.S. Rep Anne Northup (R) in the best interest of the Republican Party and the Commonwealth of Kentucky.

He originally entered the race so Republicans would have an alternative to a supposedly unelectable Fletcher, but now Northup fills that role with much more support from prominent Republicans. So, given the daunting odds against him, why is this bland but good man still burning through his personal fortune in a quest most fair-minded observers deem curious, if not quixotic?

[...]

Harper hopes Republicans will turn to him if Fletcher and Northup embark on strategies of mutually desired destruction. He promises a purely positive campaign with no negative attack ads like many monied longshots use to drag down their opponents. Why not?

Because he's nice. Real nice. You know where nice guys finish, and it is unlikely this one can capture the minimum primary vote required to force a runoff election between his rivals.

Frankly, Harper might be better off withdrawing now and filing his intention to run in the fall as an independent candidate (I think there's an April deadline to declare an intention to run, even though the filing date is much later). That way, if Fletcher were to miraculously survive his own May primary, and Democrats were dumb-enough to nominate Lunsford or Henry, Harper might be a viable-enough alternative to win a three-way general election, given such circumstances, when one considers he's able to self-finance...

(While it's not clear, and I've never checked with the Secretary of State's office, the law says that one must join a political party by December 31 of the previous year, but I suspect a person can leave a party to be independent at any time. But I'm not sure.)

UPDATE (9:56 pm): Two quick things. First, I spoke with Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) this evening who settled the issue. He says that a candidate must be registered as an Independent by December 31 in order to run as one the following year.

While I doubt it, I wonder whether any semi-prominent members of either party quietly switched to Independent on or before December 31 as an insurance policy should any unelectable general election candidates, like Fletcher or Lunsford, were to become their party's nominee. You never know.

Secondly, Billy Harper's (R) campaign just e-mailed me a rebuttal to John David's column today that they've submitted to the Courier-Journal. Here it is in full:

Billy Harper: nice guys can finish first
By Billy Harper, Republican candidate for governor

This paper recently published a column by John David Dyche that was childishly critical of me personally, and I write today to address each of the points he raised.

First, he claims that I only entered the Republican gubernatorial primary as an alternative to the current governor, and now that GOP voters have three choices my candidacy is no longer viable. That’s just wrong. Dyche mistakenly dismisses the powerful alternative my campaign represents to Kentuckians who recognize that the leadership vacuum in Frankfort has paralyzed our state government institutions.

What’s more, my campaign is not merely an alternative to any one individual but rather a true choice for voters who have grown weary of this state’s political establishment. I’m a businessman, not a politician. I believe we need new and innovative ideas in state government, not more of the same.

Dyche goes on to assail my personal appearance and public speaking ability, a trivial reaction that avoids the real issue here. As an aspiring author, Mr. Dyche should know better than to judge a book by its cover. Yet that’s exactly what he’s done – reject my ideas based on how I talk and what I look like, a poor precedent for selecting candidates for public office.

If we used Dyche’s standards, Franklin D. Roosevelt, for example, might never have been elected Governor of New York or President of the United States because he was confined to a wheelchair and forced to use crutches. That’s pure nonsense.

The people of Kentucky need to ask themselves an important question. Do they want more of the negativity and mean-spiritedness used by politicians to get elected, or do they want a positive approach to discussing the issues and solving the problems our state now faces?

I don’t look like the candidates you’re used to seeing. I don’t sound like them either. I see this state in different ways. Moreover, I’m not focusing on the issues in this race just because it’s an election year or politically advantageous for my campaign. I’m addressing education, economic development and other important matters because it’s what I’ve done now for more than 20 years as a school board member, education activist and business owner.

Can I win? That answer is up to you, the Kentucky voter. I can guarantee you, however, that I will do my part as governor to set a new course. I’ve been traveling this state tirelessly over the past two months meeting Kentuckians and discussing their own views on how we get better together.

As a businessman, I’m independent of this state’s political establishment and won’t be beholden to any interests other than those of the Kentucky people. I will fight to improve our children’s education system and won’t take no for an answer. I will fight to cut the wasteful pork-barrel spending on political pet projects and won’t back down. And I will fight to repeal the punitive Alternative Minimum Tax and won’t stop until the job is finished.
                                                    
The choice in this year’s Republican primary is simple: two career politicians or a leader in business. In Kentucky, it’s time for a nice guy with proven ability and the right experience to finish first.

Survey USA: No Gubernatorial Candidate For Either Party Higher Than 33%

WHAS-11 TV has just received the first polling data from Survey USA for the governor's race and it shows two clear themes:

• No one comes close to the 40% threshold for the primary runoff -- including Governor Fletcher (R) who garners just 33% support in his primary;
                       
• The Democratic candidates' performance mimic their name ID if you compare to the Bluegrass Poll (I hate the poll but it's all we have as far as polling to compare these numbers to);

Republican primary
Fletcher 33%
Northup 31%
Harper 13%

Democratic primary (Bluegrass Poll name ID)
Henry 26% (59%)
Beshear 15% (58%)
Richards 13% (41%)
Miller 8% (27%)
Lunsford 7% (39%)
Galbraith 6% (44%)
Hensley 2% (12%)

The usual rule-of-thumb for concerns by an incumbent is when they're under 50% in a general election. Fletcher is at 33% in his own primary! Fletcher is in very bad shape.

On the Democratic side, name ID is clearly what is governing the polls at this stage, which is expected. That means the crucial issue for the candidates is going to be whether they can raise enough money to get their message heard. The less they're known, the more they'll need to raise.

My two cents: Assuming the runoff stays, the five major Democratic candidates all have a path at this point.

• Henry is the natural front-runner today because of his eight years as LG, but that comes with a big target on his back and, given the news of late, he probably wishes he wasn't in first place right now and have everyone gunning for him;
                       
• Beshear also comes with residual name ID and that gives him a real boost and an advantage. His fundraising will be crucial. His downside is that he comes to the race without sole ownership of a geographical region (he shares with Miller) or constituency, but clearly in the thick of things;
                     
• Richards should be clearly in second-place right now given his 2003 race and being in the news quite a bit during the poll as a result of the legislative session but he seems to under-performing and appears to be making some of the same mistakes of 2003: he waited until almost March to hire a campaign manager and there's plenty of talk that he's not pulling in much money so far which will be his Achilles' Heel again;
                     
• Miller's challenge is raising enough money to tell his story because, based on limited data, people who know him tend to like him. He has enormous upside and he continues to do a tremendous job in fundraising given his limited name ID since raising it is simply a function of resources, which so far he's pulling in;
               
• Clearly, Lunsford isn't going to have any problem telling his story but will it be enough to overcome the avalanche of animosity that lingers from 2003 and the seemingly perpetual news-cycle coverage of his current battles with organized labor, who remain very potent in a Democratic primary;
                  
• Gatewood is going to get his 5-8% share of the vote but with limited funds and a public that -- rightly or wrongly -- has a preconceived notion about him, he may prove to be a spoiler but hard to see how he ends-up in a runoff. Not sure who he hurts the most? Miller? Beshear?

I'd much rather be Northup, Miller or Beshear right now than Fletcher, Henry or Lunsford.

Lessons From Alaska (LEO)

My political column in this week's LEO reminds us of the lessons from the recent Republican gubernatorial primary in Alaska where the incumbent governor (Frank Murkowski) finished third.

History has a funny way of repeating itself...

Bluegrass Politics: Lessons From Alaska
By Mark Nickolas (LEO)

A year ago in Alaska, the unthinkable happened: unpopular first-term Gov. Frank Murkowski (R) finished third in a three-way Republican primary, ending his re-election hopes. Throughout the campaign, the main argument of Murkowski’s opponents was that he could not win a fall race against the Democratic nominee. (In fact, the Republican nominee, Sarah Palin, won the fall election.)

Here in Kentucky, the same arguments are being used against Gov. Fletcher by his primary Republican opponents, former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup and Paducah businessman Billy Harper.

Earlier this month, the Northup campaign released the findings of an internal poll that shows Fletcher and Northup tied with 39 percent of the primary vote. Harper is at 10 percent.

The results appeared devastating for Fletcher.

Not only was Northup, who had been in the race for all of a week when the poll was taken, one-third less-known by Republicans than Fletcher, but among respondents who were familiar with all three candidates, Northup led Fletcher by nine points.

And to emphasize the point that Fletcher could not defeat a Democratic nominee, the poll also showed that Northup strongly outperformed Fletcher by as many as 15 points against potential Democratic challengers in the fall.

For those closely tracking Fletcher’s political death spiral for the past few years, this was hardly a shock. Fletcher, Kentucky’s first Republican governor in 32 years, long ago lost the confidence of the state’s Republican congressional delegation following his inept handing of the Merit hiring investigation of his administration. Last year, Lt. Gov. Steve Pence (R) refused to run for re-election with him, and a large chunk of the GOP hierarchy has been hoping for a viable alternative ever since, believing he could not defeat even a second-tier Democratic challenger.

But it wasn’t until Northup lost her congressional seat to John Yarmuth (D) that Kentucky Republicans had a top-shelf challenger who might oust an incumbent governor in a primary.

(click here to continue reading column)

Most Analytical?

This is what Governor Fletcher (R) is left with? Arguing that he's the "most analytical"?

Lincoln Day Dinner Finds GOP Divided On The Race For Governor
By PAUL GLASSER, State Journal

The divisions today within Kentucky's Republican Party with a heated gubernatorial primary unfolding were apparent Thursday at the Franklin County Lincoln Day Dinner banquet.

...He also fended off claims from critics that he can't win in the general election with his running mate, former secretary of finance and administration Robbie Rudolph.

"Robbie and I are the most analytical candidates in this race and we wouldn't be here if we didn't think we had a darn good chance of winning," Fletcher said.

[...]

Former Congresswoman Anne Northup said the backlash against Republicans will continue unless they find new direction.

"If we get hit by this tidal wave, we will all be blown away," she said. "We have the opportunity to put it behind us."

[...]

Bob Gable, Frankfort resident and 1975 Republican gubernatorial nominee, disagreed and said Northup also gave a powerful speech. He supports Northup and said Fletcher has yet to deviate from his list of talking points.

"I hope he keeps doing it because it bores people," Gable said.

Northup certainly has experience with the "tidal wave" concern given what President Bush and the Iraq War did her chances for re-election last year. Fletcher-Rudolph will provide Republicans with a fatal rerun of that tragedy if they nominate him for the fall.

Billy Harper (R) And Other Non-Politicians?

I'd like to pose a question.

Gubernatorial candidate Billy Harper (R) has been fashioning the Republican primary race lately as being about two politicians (Fletcher and Northup) and a businessman (Harper). I understand why he wants the race cast that way and why he thinks it's a benefit.

But is it legit for someone who was the 2003 statewide finance chairman for a gubernatorial candidate (Fletcher), who has given tens of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions, who was elected to the McCracken County Board of Education and has served as chairman, and who has been a player in Republican Party politics, to then claim he's not a politician?

No one ever challenges candidates like Harper who try to make such "outsider" claims, so allow me.

For instance, if RNC Chairman Mike Duncan were to run for office, would he not be considered a "politician" -- even though he's not been elected to office (I believe) -- given that he is the consummate political insider? Or is it dependent upon winning an election? Is Charlie Owen (D) not a politician because he lost his three races or Bruce Lunsford (D) who quit in his only one but who worked in a political position in state government and donates heavily? Or Gatewood Galbraith (D) who has run for office about a dozen times? Conversely, does the fact that Steve Beshear (D) has been out of office for 20 years allow him to make the "outsider" claim today?

I think if you are an active player in the established electoral/political system, you are political insider regardless of whether your name is on the ballot and you're being disingenuous to claim others are politicians and you're not. Harper is not only an insider (being Fletcher's finance chair) but has run and held elective office on a local level.

Anyway, I have no problem with Harper making the claim and this is certainly no big deal. But I can't help but notice how the media seems ready to anoint pretty much any rich guy who runs for high office as an "outsider" or non-politician without ever assessing how legit it is.

To me, Billy Harper is, without a doubt, a politician with the exception that he was able to make millions while he served in local office and was a governor's finance chairman.

UPDATE (1:03 PM): Billy Harper's (R) campaign just responded to this post by e-mail and, with their permission, I wanted to share it with you:

Mark,

First, I would like to say that I have enjoyed reading your blog. Most of the time I do not agree with the viewpoints expressed but have found the content to be very informative.

I wanted to respond personally to your recent post about Billy Harper being a “politician”. I think you are way off base in your assessment. While Billy has been very civilly involved in his community that is a far cry from being just another “Career Politician.” Billy has volunteered his time as chairman of Mr. Fletcher’s finance committee in 2003 which was not a paid position. He also volunteers his time on the local school board which is also not a paid position, and it certainly does not financially pay to be a candidate for high office.

This is compared to members of congress that are paid six figures for their  involvement in politics in addition to legislators and the Governor who are all also paid to be politically involved. Billy’s participation in politics is also very different from Mike Duncan who is financially paid as a politician.

This race for governor on the Republican side is indeed between two politicians (individuals who have made a living by being politicians) and a businessman (who’s income has all been from the private sector and not paid for his political involvement). 

Thanks.

Stan Pulliam
Campaign Manager, Harper for Governor

Harper Flunks First Test (Courier-Journal Editorial)

This morning's Courier-Journal editorial whacks gubernatorial candidate Billy Harper (R) while crediting Jonathan Miller (D) on their positions concerning education policy:

Harper Flunks First Test
Courier-Journal Editorial

How gubernatorial candidate Billy Harper reconciles cheerleading for education, while pledging to veto any new state taxes, is hard to figure.

...Mr. Harper's answer? Reduce state revenue further by repealing the alternative minimum tax, cut government waste (sound familiar?) and give education part of the $400 million state "surplus" that any savvy businessman knows is fictional.

Mr. Harper is missing an opportunity. He touts his credentials as a fiscal conservative. Why not also as a magician?

Democratic hopeful Jonathan Miller got it right. Last week, he wowed college students in a Capitol rotunda rally for higher education, by leading the chant: "The time is now, the place is here, and the moment is ours."

GOP's Lincoln Day Dinner

Of all the coverage that I've read about last night's Republican Party Lincoln Day Dinner in Louisville, I thought that David Adams did the best job on his Kentucky Progress blog.

Adams live-blogged the event, and while he didn't write much, he did a very good job of offering succinct posts on each of the speakers. Instead of quoting individual supporters, which the mainstream press does ad nauseum, Adams gives you a snapshot of the dynamic of the actual crowd which is precisely the reaction I'm most interested in knowing.

Here are some excerpts:

On Fletcher:

...As he rose to address the Lincoln Day gathering of 1500 Republicans, he was greeted warmly by all and vigorously by some. The people at one table in the back started a chant of "Four more years" that was not picked up around the room. At various applause lines, those who stood and cheered seemed pretty sparse...

On Northup:

...Hardcore supporters of the Governor were conspicuous in not standing when she was introduced. There may be meaningful policy differences between the candidates, but on this first night of head-to-head speechmaking, it appears the campaign will be about other things. Among the three, Governor Fletcher spoke with the most energy. Northup's speech sounds much less like a campaign speech, but her theme is her background and her conservatism and principles. It seems like she is going out of her way not to throw red meat to what is clearly her crowd. No applause lines...

On Harper:

...His call to end the AMC/LLET received polite applause. His campaign is based on his being an outsider, but on a night of accomplished speakers Billy Harper stands out as an unpolished speaker. He has no traction with this crowd at all.

Nice work, David.

Also, one e-mail I received mentioned that "Northup's presence is amazing. Tons of lit, poll memo on every seat and a lot of Northup T's on people walking around the place."

Would love to hear from people who attended the event last night on their assessment of the dynamics.

Is GOP Ready To Knife Governor Fletcher (R) Once Again?

If there's one thing about Kentucky politics that has been predictable during the past year, it's been the perfectly executed knifing that Governor Fletcher (R) has received courtesy of his own party at the most inopportune times.

From the state executive committee's refusal to call for the resignation of its chairman, to its decision to seat a loyalist of Lt. Governor Pence (R) over Fletcher's choice of Larry Forgy, to Secretary of State Trey Grayson's (R) flirtation of a gubernatorial bid at Fancy Farm, it's always a perfectly timed and well-planned ambush.

I suspect we'll see more of the same tomorrow night in Louisville when 1,500 Kentucky Republicans gather for its Lincoln Day dinner.

From the Herald-Leader:

The three GOP candidates for governor will make their first major pitches to a record crowd of Kentucky Republicans at Saturday night's Lincoln Day dinner -- an event that could set the tone for each contender starting on the campaign trail to the May 22 primary election.

More than 1,500 Republicans, the most ever according to the Kentucky Republican Party, will attend the function at the Louisville International Convention Center. Many attendees are expected to prominently display their allegiance to one candidate or another with buttons and stickers.

"It will be tense" but no blood will be shed, said Larry Forgy, who faced Larry Hopkins at the 1991 Lincoln Day dinner during that year's GOP primary for governor.

[...]

Mitt Romney, the presidential candidate and former Massachusetts governor, will serve as keynote speaker.

Other prominent Kentucky GOP officials who will address the crowd, in addition to the gubernatorial candidates, include U.S. Sens. Mitch McConnell and Jim Bunning, U.S. Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers of Somerset, state Senate President David Williams and Republican National Committee Chairman Mike Duncan of Inez.

Anyone want to predict what will happen? Will Pence endorse Northup? Will Senator McConnell (R) offer more on the race? What will Senator Bunning (R) do? How about Senate President David Williams (R)?

I can't wait.

If there's anything breaking at the event, please feel free to e-mail me from your cell phone (mark -at- bluegrassreport.org) and I'd be happy to post it while the event is ongoing.