BluegrassReport.org

Blue Grass Poll

The Courier-Journal has just released its numbers from its Blue Grass Poll taken May 10 through May 15. It shows the gubernatorial primary races as follows:

Beshear 27%
Lunsford 21%
Henry 13%
Richards 7%
Galbraith 4%
Hensley 1%

Fletcher 41%
Northup 26%
Harper 10%

My quick thoughts: 1) The poll began a week ago, which means it would not have taken full account of strong surges of late by Beshear and Northup; 2) Fletcher has to be terrified that he's only at 41% just a week from the election as the INCUMBENT, knowing that late undecideds rarely break for an incumbent, not to mention what would happen to him in a runoff; 3) how many of Harper voters will cast a vote for the guy who can't win instead of Northup who has a shot?

Survey USA To Show Beshear Surge?

The good folks over at Ditch Mitch appear to have the early data from today's Survey USA poll, indicating that Steve Beshear (D) has greatly benefited from Jonathan Miller's (D) withdrawal and endorsement:

(previous results in parentheses):

• Beshear/Mongiardo -- 32% (23%)
• Lunsford/Stumbo -- 23% (29%)
• Henry/True -- 18% (18%)
• Richards/Brown -- 12% (9%)
• Galbraith/Wireman --6% (5%)
• Undecided -- 9% (7%)

Assuming these numbers are accurate, the other interesting storyline is that despite dumping million of dollars into this race, Bruce Lunsford (D) isn't getting any more traction this year than in 2003 when he peaked at about 25% and then dropped out.

Not only is Lunsford no sure thing for finishing second, but if Beshear continues to gather steam there's an outside chance he'll pierce 40%. Will Lunsford try to go back on his promise and launch attack ads against Beshear in the final week?

Update: Also according to the Ditch Mitch post, Governor Fletcher (R) has lost some ground but continues to lead Anne Northup (R) by ten points.

Update #2 (12:41 pm): Click here for the actual survey results.

Democrats Focus Their Fire On Beshear (Gerth/Steitzer, Courier-Journal)

I missed last night's KET Democratic gubernatorial debate but, according to the Courier-Journal's story, it sounds like it was an eventful evening:

Democrats Focus Their Fire On Beshear
Gambling plan, loan ties assailed
By Joseph Gerth and Stephenie Steitzer, The Courier-Journal

LEXINGTON, Ky. — Democratic candidates for governor took aim yesterday at former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear, criticizing their fellow candidate's reliance on expanded gambling to pay for the state's needs and his role in working for high-interest lenders.

They said the biggest problem with gambling is that it would take several years before the state could benefit from it — and that's if the General Assembly passes legislation next year to allow casino gambling.

"It's just like Wallace Wilkinson," said former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry, invoking the name of Beshear's late political nemesis, who won election in 1987 pushing a state lottery.

"He's trying to perpetrate something that is not going to happen for at least three years."

House Speaker Jody Richards said Beshear didn't understand how difficult it would be to pass such a constitutional amendment as long as David Williams is president of the state Senate.

"Mr. Beshear doesn't seem to realize there is a General Assembly out there," Richards said. After listening to Henry, Richards and Bruce Lunsford take him to task, Beshear said, "I love how all these people plan for failure."

[...]

Richards and Henry also criticized Beshear for his work as a lawyer and lobbyist for the Kentucky Deferred Deposit Association in the late 1990s. The group represents payday lenders that charge high interest rates.

Beshear contended that he actually helped the state pass restrictions on the industry, limiting interest rates and the number of times the businesses could "roll over," or reissue, the loans.

In fact, he fought against more strict rules.

"Mr. Beshear, I know you're a great lawyer, but I don't think that is going to sit with the voters. The bottom line is you represented the industry," Henry said, calling Beshear's explanation "a little far-fetched."

Richards then jumped in, criticizing a bill Beshear supported in 1998, saying it allows excessive interest and needs to be more restrictive.

"Mr. Speaker, as I remember, the House and Senate overwhelmingly passed it and you voted for it," Beshear shot back.

[...]

When a panelist asked the candidates about the practice of sitting governors using a state plane to attend campaign events, all said they would not do so if elected.

A panelist followed up by pointing out that Beshear was reported to have used a state plane more than 200 times while he was lieutenant governor under then-Gov. Martha Layne Collins.

Before the debate ended, the Lunsford campaign seized upon the issue, releasing a statement that showed reports of Beshear's use of the state plane, many of which occurred while he was running for governor when he was lieutenant governor.

Beshear said after the debate that he used the plane to appear in his official capacity at civic events, festivals and parades, not to attend fundraisers.

Asked whether those events blur the line between official and campaign use, Beshear said the General Assembly should develop a clear set of guidelines "so that it will be clear not only to the governor and the lieutenant governor, but also the people in the state as to exactly when you can use the state aircraft and when you should not."

I'm looking forward to the Survey USA results that will be released today. I've heard that the Blue Grass Poll is expected to be released tomorrow as well.

Survey USA

Mark Hebert reports that Survey USA will be releasing the second round of numbers in the governor's race this afternoon. Presumably, the poll was taken over the weekend. While there's no reason to believe we'll see any significant movements in the numbers, I am looking forward to the numbers on three candidates: Governor Fletcher (R), Bruce Lunsford (D), and Steve Henry (D).

Both Fletcher and Lunsford have gone on the air with significant buys, so one would expect to see upward movement from both of them since their ads were positive, they weren't competing with any other opponents on the air, and each purchased hefty media buys. The lack of strong movement for either of these two should signal concerns.

Also, Henry has been the subject of a number of tough stories in the Louisville and Lexington media markets concerning his campaign finance controversy, so I'll be looking for any erosion in his support in those areas in particular.

Overall, I don't expect much change in the numbers or the status of the horserace, but there will be a few items that should prove instructive with seven weeks to go.

Recall that the previous Survey USA taken March 3-5 showed:

Democrats
Henry 26%
Beshear 15%
Richards 13%
Miller 8%
Lunsford 7%
Galbraith 6%
Hensley 2%

Republicans
Fletcher 33%
Northup 31%
Harper 13%

Survey USA: No Gubernatorial Candidate For Either Party Higher Than 33%

WHAS-11 TV has just received the first polling data from Survey USA for the governor's race and it shows two clear themes:

• No one comes close to the 40% threshold for the primary runoff -- including Governor Fletcher (R) who garners just 33% support in his primary;
                       
• The Democratic candidates' performance mimic their name ID if you compare to the Bluegrass Poll (I hate the poll but it's all we have as far as polling to compare these numbers to);

Republican primary
Fletcher 33%
Northup 31%
Harper 13%

Democratic primary (Bluegrass Poll name ID)
Henry 26% (59%)
Beshear 15% (58%)
Richards 13% (41%)
Miller 8% (27%)
Lunsford 7% (39%)
Galbraith 6% (44%)
Hensley 2% (12%)

The usual rule-of-thumb for concerns by an incumbent is when they're under 50% in a general election. Fletcher is at 33% in his own primary! Fletcher is in very bad shape.

On the Democratic side, name ID is clearly what is governing the polls at this stage, which is expected. That means the crucial issue for the candidates is going to be whether they can raise enough money to get their message heard. The less they're known, the more they'll need to raise.

My two cents: Assuming the runoff stays, the five major Democratic candidates all have a path at this point.

• Henry is the natural front-runner today because of his eight years as LG, but that comes with a big target on his back and, given the news of late, he probably wishes he wasn't in first place right now and have everyone gunning for him;
                       
• Beshear also comes with residual name ID and that gives him a real boost and an advantage. His fundraising will be crucial. His downside is that he comes to the race without sole ownership of a geographical region (he shares with Miller) or constituency, but clearly in the thick of things;
                     
• Richards should be clearly in second-place right now given his 2003 race and being in the news quite a bit during the poll as a result of the legislative session but he seems to under-performing and appears to be making some of the same mistakes of 2003: he waited until almost March to hire a campaign manager and there's plenty of talk that he's not pulling in much money so far which will be his Achilles' Heel again;
                     
• Miller's challenge is raising enough money to tell his story because, based on limited data, people who know him tend to like him. He has enormous upside and he continues to do a tremendous job in fundraising given his limited name ID since raising it is simply a function of resources, which so far he's pulling in;
               
• Clearly, Lunsford isn't going to have any problem telling his story but will it be enough to overcome the avalanche of animosity that lingers from 2003 and the seemingly perpetual news-cycle coverage of his current battles with organized labor, who remain very potent in a Democratic primary;
                  
• Gatewood is going to get his 5-8% share of the vote but with limited funds and a public that -- rightly or wrongly -- has a preconceived notion about him, he may prove to be a spoiler but hard to see how he ends-up in a runoff. Not sure who he hurts the most? Miller? Beshear?

I'd much rather be Northup, Miller or Beshear right now than Fletcher, Henry or Lunsford.

Miller Challenges Primary Opponents For More Campaign Finance Disclosure

Courier-Journal reports a good move by State Treasurer Jonathan Miller in a gubernatorial campaign likely to be focused on ethics and transparency:

State Treasurer Jonathan Miller challenged his Democratic opponents for governor Friday to tell voters early and often how much money they’ve raised and who is giving to them.

Miller, who is making transparency in government a key theme in his campaign, issued the challenge at the Kentucky Press Association’s winter meeting in Louisville, where six of the nine announced candidates for governor spoke.

Miller said he would release information about his campaign finances 60 days and 90 days before the election, even though he’s not required by state law to do so. He challenged his opponents to do the same.

Former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear said he didn’t know if he would take that challenge.

“I haven’t really even thought of it,” said Beshear, who ran an unsuccessful campaign for governor 20 years ago. “I don’t have any reason to do it or not to do it. That’s not what this campaign is all about.”

Former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry said he plans to release fund-raising information more often than required by law but added that he didn’t know if he would do it on Miller’s timetable.

...Lexington lawyer Gatewood Galbraith said he would release the information “any time you ask for it.”

Candidacies Galore

Lots going on with the Democratic gubernatorial candidates:

• Today, both former Lt. Governor Steve Henry (D) and Gatewood Galbraith (D) announced their candidacies for governor. Henry selected Fayette County PVA Renee True as his running mate. Gatewood choose Mark Wireman, a former Transportation Cabinet employee as his number two.
              
• Tomorrow morning, House Speaker Jody Richards (D) and former Secretary of State John Y. Brown III (D) are expected to announce their candidacy.

Also, today Senator Jim Bunning (R) made it clear he's running for re-election in 2010.