BluegrassReport.org

Fletcher Becomes Patton

Recall Governor Fletcher's (R) anger in 2003 when -- in the weeks before leaving office -- then Governor Patton (D) appointed new members to the Kentucky Racing Commission. So furious was Fletcher that he immediately disbanded the commission upon taking office and replaced it with the Kentucky Racing Authority with new members which he appointed.

Listen to how they whined:

Republicans and their incoming governor, Ernie Fletcher, are crying foul. Although Patton has the authority to pack seats with anyone he chooses until Dec. 9, that-doesn't mean he should, they said. Fletcher is urging recent Patton appointees to decline to serve.

"Any additional appointments will be disappointing as Kentuckians overwhelmingly gave us a mandate to bring-real change to state government, and that includes boards and commissions," said Daniel Groves, Fletcher's chief of staff.

[...]

Yesterday, several Senate leaders came out fighting and accused the lame-duck governor of unseemly arrogance.

"I actually admired Paul Patton and even considered him a friend until last week, when he decided to push for keno and make all these appointments, all at the last minute," said Sen. Charlie Borders, R-Russell, the Republican caucus chair.

"It's like he's somehow more important than the commonwealth," Borders said. "It's like his ego is more important than allowing the next administration to start finding its voice."

So, aside from helping to force the scary Jon Draud (R) down the throats of Kentuckians as the new state school commissioner, we now see Fletcher's cronies quickly trying to hand out the final racing license before he leaves office -- knowing that such a license probably means a gaming license if expanded gaming is enacted:

The Kentucky Horse Racing Authority could decide before the end of the year whether to grant the state's last racetrack license to Sprint Racing Partners' proposed quarter-horse facility near London.

Authority Executive Director Lisa Underwood said one of its committees is scheduling a hearing for Dec. 10, but she doesn't know whether the application will be on the agenda for the Dec. 17 authority meeting.

...The timing of granting a license also could play a role in whether the track would be eligible for a casino, assuming the legislature places a constitutional amendment allowing gaming on the ballot and voters approve it. Bills to govern the awarding of casinos have limited some of them to tracks licensed by a certain date.

Apparently, it's okay if Fletcher does the very thing he criticized Patton for doing. A shameless hypocrite until the end.

I guess Governor Beshear (D) could always disband the Racing Authority if he so chose -- exactly like Fletcher did -- but that's just my two cents.

Some Republicans Saw It Coming (Ronnie Ellis)

Ronnie Ellis has an interesting political column today on the Republican post-election reaction:

Early on Tuesday, I got an earful from a distraught Republican. She couldn’t believe Republicans found themselves in the position they faced in this election, only four years after the Kentucky GOP stood atop the political mountain and looked into what appeared to be a very bright future. But Fletcher and company blew their chance.

“How hard should it have been to govern without arrogance, without retribution, and with honesty?” she asked. “Ernie Fletcher and those around him never understood 2003 wasn’t about them. It was about change and that people were tired of being embarrassed by their elected officials.

“All they wanted was someone to be proud of and to know they would do what they promised. Instead, we got secret doors, cuff-link kids, arrogance, planes with no transponders, teachers marching on the capitol and moral superiority.”

I'll never understand how everyone realized this, except Fletcher. How can anyone be so clueless as to lose their political compass so quickly after being swept into office on the singular platform of cleaning-up the mess in Frankfort.

Was it simply arrogance + incompetence?

BGR Readers Rock!

You guys were quite impressive with your over/under predictions in the various counties, with the majority going 14-5 with their picks. Even more impressive is that (with the exception of the Northern Kentucky counties), the over/under line was very, very close to actual results, meaning it was a much tougher call for the majority of readers to pick the correct result.

Below are the results. The only counties missed (shaded in red) were the ones that were very close to the actual over/under line, giving you little room for error. Nicely done.

County (Over/Under)	% Predicting OVER	% Predicting UNDER	Fletcher 2003	Fletcher 2007
Franklin (30%)	32%	68%	47%	26.6%
Jefferson (35%)	22%	78%	49%	34.5%
Fayette (40%)	33%	67%	54%	41.0%
Boone (65%)	21%	79%	72%	50.8%
Kenton (60%)	20%	80%	65%	45.1%
Campbell (60%)	16%	84%	63%	44.4%
Warren (50%)	21%	79%	61%	44.9%
Oldham (55%)	28%	72%	68%	51.5%
Daviess (45%)	16%	84%	52%	35.6%
McCracken (47%)	20%	80%	59%	43.4%
Pulaski (62%)	32%	68%	73%	62.3%
Pike (30%)	41%	59%	43%	28.7%
Floyd (20%)	46%	54%	34%	19.4%
Boyd (40%)	31%	69%	42%	34.0%
Shelby (45%)	25%	75%	60%	44.9%
Madison (45%)	12%	88%	59%	47.3%
Hopkins (45%)	19%	81%	57%	36.2%
Christian (45%)	25%	75%	55%	48.2%
Hardin (45%)	25%	75%	60%	48.2%

As far as the over/under on the specific races, you were a little less accurate, but the over/under line was very close to final result in all but Grayson's and Farmer's contests:

Candidate [Office]	Over/Under Line	% Predicting OVER	% Predicting UNDER	Final Result
Fletcher (R) [Gov]	42%	23%	77%	41.3%
Lee (R) [AG]	42%	11%	89%	39.5%
Greenwell (R) [Auditor]	40%	16%	84%	40.8%
Grayson (R) [SOS]	52%	47%	53%	57.1%
Wheeler (R) [Treasurer]	41%	21%	79%	42.5%
Farmer (R) [Ag Comm]	55%	78%	22%	64.0%

Finally, in the question asking which of the following candidates would get the smallest percentage of the vote, you came close:

Linda Greenwell (R) -- 35%
Stan Lee (R) -- 28%
Melinda Wheeler (R) -- 20%
Ernie Fletcher (R) -- 17%

The Story Of The 2007 Election

If one think stands out for me during this election cycle, it was the realization that the more Governor Fletcher (R) tried to trot out the tired old fear tactics on social issues, the more Steve Beshear's (D) lead grew.

While Fletcher never got with 15 points of Beshear in any of the independent polls, a quick glance of the poll track will show that when Fletcher confined his attacks on Beshear to his newly-found opposition to expanded gaming, the lead was in the 16-19 range. But when Fletcher decided to go "all in" and shamelessly pander on the social issues, that lead grew to 20-24 points.

Think for a moment of all the issues that Fletcher tried to base his re-election fantasy on:

• expanded-gaming
• Kentucky Central
• immigration
• guns
• abortion
• gay marriage/domestic partner benefits
• Ten Commandments

None of it worked, except maybe to galvanize Democrats and ensure they voted on Election Day and did not take the outcome for granted. 

The one thing Fletcher never talked about was his record. Of course, he too realized that he had little to run on, despite blaming everyone else for his problems. If he had, Fletcher might have kept his loss closer to 10 points than 20 points.

Ultimately, what we learned about Ernie Fletcher was that he was the luckiest man in Kentucky in 2003 when he ran during a Democratic scandal in the state, at a time of national uncertainty, with a then popular president (at least in Kentucky), and he had the McConnell machine determined to elect its first Republican governor in 32 years. But he also suffered from a chronic affliction that can only be described as an enormous political blind-spot.

Once elected, Fletcher proved himself to be a minor leaguer trying to compete in the major leagues and couldn't. He pushed the McConnell crowd out of the inner circle (he was too smart for them), he began to believe his own press releases, and he surrounded himself with political lightweights like Daniel Groves, Stan Cave, Robbie Rudolph and Brett Hall whose collective chief virtue was that their arrogance was eclipsed only by their incompetence. Oh, and he took political advice from Larry Forgy.

And for his death knell, Fletcher failed to realize the lessons of 2006 when the public no longer looked to the Republican Party as the guarantors of moral and ethical behavior and that their "values" no longer were viewed as superior to Democrats'. Nationally, voters now trust Democrats more than Republicans on every single issue tested and the attempts by some remaining behind-the-times Republicans to demagogue on social issues just doesn't work any longer. Apparently, Fletcher didn't the get the memo from his crack team of advisers.

To sum it up, this isn't 2003 any longer. The voters are much smarter than the politicians give them credit for being and this election didn't require very much deep analysis on their part. The fact that Ernie Fletcher spent millions of dollars trying to spin a fable didn't mean the voters were going to buy it. They heard the attacks but they rang hollow this time. The voters realized over the past few years that Fletcher was a hypocritical phony who lost his privilege to lead the people that trusted him to do so in 2003. They also rejected the shameless pandering of candidates like Stan Lee, Linda Greenwell, and Melinda Wheeler.

After Kentucky Democrats had largely lost their way with the public four years ago -- thanks to many factors including Paul Patton, 9/11, the temporary rise of the religious right, and their own arrogance -- the voters went in a different direction. But Democrats re-adjusted, learned from their mistakes, new Democratic leaders emerged and the political climate changed at just the right time.

This time, the voters are ready to reward the party that put forth the better candidates, ran on the better agenda, and for which they now trust more than the other guys on the most important issues of the day.

That's the story of 2007 and why Ernie Fletcher is about to join the unemployment line. This is going to be a very fun evening...

Not So Fast

As we get ready for a victory tonight that may well double the margin Governor Fletcher (R) received in 2003, here's a look back at a few of the comments made by Republicans four years ago this evening:

"We will take this mandate tonight and move this state forward," Fletcher told his victory celebration at a Lexington hotel.

...

Republican U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell: "Thirty-two years of drift, 32 years of incompetence, 32 years of corruption have come to an end tonight."

...

"Most of you have been foot-soldiers in this revolution that started back in 1994 that swept the congressional delegation, swept the state Senate and now we're another step to completing the job with electing a brilliant, outstanding, incredible man of extraordinary integrity in Ernie Fletcher," said McConnell.

...

Fletcher's supporters said his win was about Fletcher's abilities, and not just about the idea of change. Campbell County Republican Chairwoman Barb Haas said Fletcher, a doctor and former fighter pilot with an engineering degree, won on his own merits, not on the misgivings of Democrats.

"We will never have a more qualified governor," said Haas, one of many Northern Kentuckians who attended the Republican victory party in Lexington.

...

Kentucky's last Republican governor, Louie Nunn, said Fletcher's sincerity and life experience won the race for him.

"I cannot think in my lifetime of a governor with the qualifications that he will bring to the job, even me. I think he will be remarkable. And I hope I don't sound giddy tonight," Nunn said.

...

"Western Kentucky has been left out by the Frankfort establishment and they're tired of it," said Scott Jennings, senior political advisor for the Republican Party of Kentucky.

"It was a repudiation of the last 30 years, and I think they said we just aren't going to take it anymore."

If Fletcher claimed a 10-point victory as a "mandate" what does one call a 20-point victory?

I Hope You Took The "Under"

A month ago, I set the over/under line for the number of newspaper endorsements that Governor Fletcher (R) would receive at 1-1/2. At the time, I took the under. Most of those leaving comments thought that was crazy and surely Fletcher -- the incumbent -- would get two or more endorsements.

He got none.

Not one.

Not the Paducah Sun.

Not the Hopkinsville New Era.

Not the Bowling Green Daily News.

Not the Danville Advocate-Messenger.

Not the Owensboro Messenger-Inquirer.

Not the Kentucky Enquirer.

None.

Fletcher likes to offer his phony talking point that his problem with the media is simply with the Courier-Journal and Herald-Leader, yet not one of those who endorsed him in 2003 (nearly all of the above) did so again in 2007.

Not even whack-jobs at the Paducah Sun had the guts to try to fashion an editorial suggesting that our incompetent and corrupt governor deserved another four years.

Amazing.

"The Sound Of Hell Freezing Over In Danville"

Since I've been traveling much of this week, I haven't had a chance to fully update the candidate endorsement chart (I'm working on that right now) but wanted to shine a little light on one endorsement that was published this weekend.

While I fully stand by my original remark that I don't believe newspaper endorsements mean much, please allow me one qualification to that statement: they matter when a newspaper so clearly deviates from its usual editorial philosophical leanings that they endorse the candidate on the other side. One example took place in 2004 when the Courier-Journal endorsed Anne Northup (R) over Tony Miller (D) for the 3rd Congressional District seat. Another took place this weekend:

Editorial Endorsement: Beshear Is The Paper's Choice For Governor
Danville Advocate-Messenger Editorial

Today, this newspaper steps a little outside of what some perceive is its comfort zone. We endorse the Democratic Party's candidate for governor.

Steve Beshear is the best choice in this election.

We do not approach this decision lightly. Until the Republican primary earlier this year, when we endorsed Anne Northup, we professed steadfast and consistent support for Ernie Fletcher in both his elections to Congress and to the office of governor. But this is one of those times when leadership, or the lack thereof, trumps philosophy.

The best measure of a leader is how he deals with crisis, real or political, and Gov. Fletcher has demonstrated less leadership than stubbornness in the greatest political crisis of his career. His response to the merit hiring scandal - which he correctly describes as a "witch hunt" but which also was a test of political acumen - and his subsequent abandonment of his party's long-term interests by staying in this race, have diminished any claims he can make of overall success.

[...]

In his zeal to overcome, Fletcher has found himself stooping to desperate tactics - calling an ill-advised special session to advance his reelection bid; flip-flopping on the casino issue, then misrepresenting Beshear's position on that issue; digging up dirt about the Kentucky Central case and pouring water on it to make mud; questioning his opponent's religious convictions.

Fletcher has attempted to frame this race around the casino proposal, an issue not yet on the ballot and one which the voters would be able to reject as easily as they can reject Fletcher.

That said, Beshear has appropriately and in fairness pointed to Fletcher's indictment and his premature use of the pardon for staff members as reasons enough not to reelect him. He has appropriately described this race as one about leadership.

And Beshear has proven his ability to lead. He served this state admirably as state representative (1974-79), attorney general (1980-84) and as lieutenant governor under Martha Layne Collins (1983-87). As attorney general he attacked the issue of food stamp fraud and enabled consumers seeking justice. As lieutenant governor, he formed the Kentucky Tomorrow Commission, a group that sought to get ahead of our problems.

Beshear bravely took up a controversial issue in this campaign from the start. He stood his ground, and in a fractured field of primary candidates - which everyone thought would produce a runoff election - Beshear managed to bring his party together and win convincingly.

Under the circumstances, we believe Beshear is in the best position to provide the leadership needed to advance the causes in Kentucky that are repeated in election after election.

When and if the Republican Party heals its wounds, maybe we can return to a debate of political philosophy.

But for now, we need a different leader. Steve Beshear is at the ready.

A reader e-mailed me this endorsement over the weekend along with only these eight simple words, "the sound of hell freezing over in Danville."

Indeed.

Fletcher Planning Scorched-Earth Effort Against The Kentucky Republican Establishment For Not Backing Him?

One of the most remarkable things of the past year is the sheer number of prominent Republican insiders who have willingly communicated their frustrations about Governor Fletcher (R) directly to me, allowing BGR to be their vehicle for getting out their viewpoint and dropping interesting insider information on what's going on behind the scenes.

Not surprisingly, that's only increased of late, and I assure you we're not talking about second-level know-nothing local people who are coming forward.

The mosaic that is coming into very clear focus is that:

1. Fletcher doesn't care about anyone on the ticket other than himself;
                      
2. He would be more than happy if Trey Grayson (R) lost his re-election as he never got over Trey's flirting with running against him this year, and;
                     
3. Fletcher appears to be tying sticks of dynamite to key Republican establishments and is prepared to detonate them when he loses, blaming them generally for failing to help him during the Merit scandal and specifically for encouraging and backing Anne Northup's (R) primary challenge, which effectively sealed his general election fate.

Along those lines, I'm told by one top Republican insider that Robbie Rudolph (R), Fletcher's running mate, and Chief of Staff Stan Cave are actively meeting and encouraging Larry Forgy (R) to run in next year's Senate race as an independent. They either know they'd have no chance in a primary challenge, or they simply want to defeat Senator McConnell (R) as revenge for what he's done to Fletcher since the Merit scandal began in May 2005.

And it's hard not to conclude that Fletcher's disgraced, foul-mouthed former mouthpiece, Brett Hall, is ready to assist an independent Forgy bid, given his numerous slams of McConnell and Kentucky Republican Party leadership (before the current B Team came along in June), and his well-known close relationship with Loony Larry.

All this brings me back to Ted Jackson's comment about Fletcher early this year, which seems more true today than ever:

"Ernie Fletcher is the David Koresh of Kentucky Republican politics ... He's boarded the windows and locked the doors and said, 'Take it from us, we'll burn it to the ground.'"

It sure does appear that Fletcher is ready to help bring-down any Republican that failed to help him cover-up his law-breaking and save his political career, and burn down what remains of the Republican Party of Kentucky.

As a Democrat, I couldn't be happier for such fratricide, but even I have a tiny bit of sympathy (just a little) for the talented Kentucky Republicans who worked so hard up to 2003 to create a robust political machine and elect their first governor in 32 years, only to watch one moron, and his incompetent posse, tear down in a few years what took a few decades to fully build. The national climate only added to the disaster, just as the collapsed levees destroyed what the hurricane winds didn't.

Of course, it won't take Kentucky Republicans that long to rebuild, but they'll have to do so without the Governor's Mansion, without their prized 3rd Congressional District seat, with an enormous expansion of the Democratic majority in the state House, with a realistic possibility of losing their state Senate majority, with the possibility that their rising star (Trey Grayson) could lose his seat, with a public that has soured on countless Republican issues, and now with the possibility that Fletcher and his fanatical cronies may try to destroy McConnell's re-election hopes, if he didn't have enough to worry about already.

It's safe to say these are dog days for Kentucky Republicans. The political pendulum sure does wing back and forth, doesn't it?

UPDATE (11:13 AM): No sooner than posting the above did I receive an e-mail from another Republican insider on a related issue concerning this post from yesterday:

Mark,

I don't know if it was your post regarding Northup yesterday that sparked it or, as one of your posters said, the campaign was already in the works . . . but last night I received a phone call from a Republican higher up the party food chain than I.

The caller, knowing I am not a Fletcher fan, was wanting to talk about where we as a party go after his defeat.  Specifically, he was tossing out a few names as potential state party chairs.  He mentioned three names:  Anne Northup, Steve Pence and Jeff Hoover.

As I told him, I think that Pence might be too controversial.  I know many people that were not strong Fletcher people that still didn't like him because they felt he abandoned his duties as Lt. Governor.  I disagree with that but, oh well.  The concept of either Northup or Hoover as party chair was pretty interesting though.

The most interesting part of the call is the fact that the caller's loyalties do not lie with Northup, Hoover or Pence, but with another interested elected official.

Just thought you would be interested in knowing that this rumor may have some legs.

Not Your Typical Effort

As we ready ourselves for the Democratic tsunami that is about to hit Kentucky in just 13 days, I wanted to mention one very noteworthy contributor which helped Democrats take advantage of the fertile political environment in Kentucky: the efforts of Bluegrass Freedom Fund.

While there's nothing new about third-party groups getting engaged during elections and talking directly to the voters -- the Republican Governors Association (RGA) did so for Governor Fletcher (R) (at least for a few weeks before bailing when the polls didn't moving and a campaign finance complaint was filed against them for illegal coordination), what makes Bluegrass Freedom's efforts unique is that they didn't simply come into Kentucky, attack a candidate on television, and then leave.

While the issue advocacy groups and political candidates flooded the airwaves with TV commercials, no one seemed to be using the Internet to reach people and raise awareness. Bluegrass Freedom combined the sight, sound, and motion of television by running a highly-targeted streaming video online advertising campaign on the leading newspaper and television sites throughout the state. In addition, they also purchased advertisements on the leading progressive political blogs in the state (I'm sure you remember the one that ran here for two weeks). Its video ads alone saw 2 million impressions on the media sites, and were accessed thousands of times. And unlike the RGA's efforts, Bluegrass Freedom focused on, and promoted, a real issue -- ethics reform -- on top of what it did to Fletcher's candidacy itself.

From what we've seen, I have to believe this has been the largest online issue advocacy campaign in Kentucky history. 

Finally, this effort -- along with the independent efforts by Working Families for Kentucky and the Jefferson County Teachers' Association -- which has wholly benefited Steve Beshear (D) is really a reversal from the 2003 campaign when Fletcher had the lion's share of the independent groups pitching in to help him get elected. This time around, Fletcher has been left to his own devices -- other than the few weeks of television that the RGA gave him out of pity (or obligation) -- and it's been Beshear who's been buoyed by the independent and advocacy groups. And once you add the enormous fundraising disparity between the candidates, there's no doubt why the incumbent Fletcher trails by 20 points with 13 days to go.

(One final note: Contrary to some of the wild rumors, I've not taken -- nor will take -- any money from this group beyond the blog ad that they purchased on BGR at the usual rate. So please stop with that manufactured idiocy.)

Maybe The Most Dramatic Of All Of Governor Fletcher's (R) Failures

Not sure why the media hasn't taken the time to notice this, but I think it's the best example of the failure of Governor Fletcher's (R) four years in office.

Back in 2003, Fletcher was desperate to change the subject from the very sluggish national economy that President Bush (R) and the Republican Congress (when Fletcher was a member) gave us. During the general election, Fletcher put out a detailed "white paper" showing that the Kentucky's real economic problem was that its seven neighboring states were more successful at job growth than we were and he would change that (I still have the white paper if anyone needs a copy). We've talked at length about the failure of Fletcher to live-up to his campaign promise of more than 100,000 new jobs (he barely exceeded half that much).

But the most stunning example of Fletcher's failure has been when looking at unemployment in Kentucky.

In the past week or so, the U.S. Department of Labor released its most recent economic data and guess which state is now in the top five in unemployment?

STATES WITH THE HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Most Recent Data)

1. Michigan -- 7.5%
2. Mississippi -- 6.4%
3. Alaska -- 6.3%
4. Kentucky -- 6.1%

But it gets even more depressing.

Check out the change in unemployment by Kentucky and its seven border states since Fletcher was sworn-in as governor in December 2003:

State	Unemployment (Dec 2003)	Unemployment (Sep 2007)	Change	Unemployed (Dec 2003)	Unemployed (Sep 2007)	Change
Kentucky	5.9%	6.1%	+0.2%	117,103	125,629	+8,526
Illinois	6.6%	5.1%	-1.5%	419,892	345,996	-73,896
Virginia	3.9%	2.9%	-1.0%	148,881	116,878	-32,003
Tennessee	5.6%	4.7%	-0.9%	161,050	142,273	-18,777
Indiana	5.3%	4.5%	-0.8%	167,809	145,502	-22,307
West Virginia	5.6%	4.8%	-0.8%	44,362	39,068	-5,294
Ohio	6.1%	5.9%	-0.2%	358,696	354,824	-3,872
Missouri	5.5%	5.3%	-0.2%	163,324	162,118	-1,206

Got that?

Every single border state has seen decreases in unemployment during Fletcher's tenure while Kentucky saw an increase in its unemployment.

Is that not failure personified?

Hello, media?

UPDATE (4:16 PM): And further undermining another bullshit Fletcher talking point is the fact that Illinois, Indiana, West Virginia, Ohio, and Missouri are not union-busting right-to-work states and they seem to be doing just fine when it comes to job growth. This is simply a matter of incompetence in the Governor's Mansion, though the legislature needs to takes some blame here as well.

15 Days To Go And Another Fletcher Fiction?

This part of Deborah Yetter's story in today's Courier-Journal about last night's gubernatorial debate caught my eye:

They even argued over who hunts the most during a discussion of local gun control (both oppose it) during the one-hour debate at the WHAS television station.

Fletcher, a Republican seeking a second term, boasted that he recently shot his first turkey and mocked a campaign ad that portrays Beshear in hunting garb.

"It looked like it was a new endeavor you probably weren't very used to," Fletcher said.

The reason this was noteworthy is that I vaguely recall during the 2003 campaign that Fletcher had only acquired his hunting and fishing licenses in the year before the election. (I'm 80% sure of this). I suspect Beshear has been licensed a lot longer than that.

If anyone has access to those records, it might be interesting to find out when each candidate got their licenses. I suspect the answer might be very embarrassing for our desperate (and outgoing) governor.

Hundreds Of Fletcher's 2003 Donors Now Backing Beshear

The Herald-Leader has a story on how hundreds of Governor Fletcher's (R) 2003 donors are now backing Steve Beshear (D). Gotta wonder how many are non-merit workers hoping to keep their jobs...

More than 250 campaign donors who helped fund Ernie Fletcher's successful 2003 campaign have defected to write checks to the governor's Democratic opponent, Steve Beshear, according to a Herald-Leader analysis.

About 95 other contributors to Fletcher's 2003 campaign have given money to both Fletcher and Beshear during this fall's general election.

In all, Beshear has received roughly $300,000 from Fletcher's 2003 donors, including $80,000 from the 95 who are hedging their bets by writing checks to the governor and his Democratic challenger, according to the review of campaign finance reports.

Speaking of non-merit workers...back in 2003, Fletcher railed about the effort by past administrations to bury non-merit workers into merit jobs before an election (it's called "burrowing"). One has to wonder how much burrowing is now under way by the Fletcher crooks? Let's hope state employees are keeping track...

Crowley: Fletcher's Fundraising Plummets In NKY's Kenton County

This might be the single most revealing story about the state of the gubernatorial race -- just how poorly Governor Fletcher's (R) fundraising has been in Northern Kentucky's Kenton County compared to 2003, long considered a Fletcher stronghold:

Fletcher's Fundraising Falls
Down $77,000 in Kenton from '03
By Patrick Crowley, Kentucky Enquirer

...According to the campaign finance report that Fletcher filed last week with the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance, he raised $108,075 in Kenton County between the May primary and the first week of October.

Records show that during the same period four years ago, Fletcher raised $185,530.

[...]

Koenig also acknowledged that polling in the governor's race - which has consistently shown Fletcher with double-digit deficits - likely suppressed fundraising.

Four years ago, Fletcher raised $127,975 in the heavily GOP suburbs on and near Dixie Highway, including Fort Mitchell, Crescent Springs, Crestview Hills, Villa Hills, Lakeside Park and Edgewood.

This year, that figure dropped to $71,475.

Edgewood lawyer Mark Guilfoyle, a Democrat advising Beshear's campaign, attributed the drop to two major factors.

Kenton Countians were angered at Fletcher's "shabby" treatment of Dick Murgatroyd, the former Kenton Judge-executive and a beloved figure in the GOP, Guilfoyle said.

Murgatroyd was one of the state officials charged with misdemeanor crimes in the investigation into the Fletcher administration's hiring practices. Fletcher pardoned Murgatroyd, then fired him.

Guilfoyle also speculated that Fletcher lost financial support after U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning, a GOP icon in Northern Kentucky, backed Fletcher's opponent, former Louisville Congresswoman Anne Northup, in the primary.

[...]

Beshear trailed Fletcher in overall Kenton County fundraising by about $10,000. The Democrat raised $98,275, his campaign finance report shows.

Last Night's Debate & Fletcher's New-Found Fanaticism

There was one thing that really stood out for me while watching last night's gubernatorial debate on KET -- Steve Beshear (D) seemed to answer questions about what he would do as governor with great care and precision, knowing very well that he's going to be elected in less than three weeks, and that offering-up pie-in-the-sky campaign promises would not be smart.

In contrast, Governor Fletcher (R) came out with promises to everyone, while taking desperately petty shots at Beshear at every opportunity (I particularly loved Fletcher's idiocy about Beshear needing to get a criminal defense lawyer over the Kentucky Central non-story), especially his new-found favorites: God, guns, gays and gambling. It was abundantly clear that Fletcher knows the walls are closing in and he's saying whatever he thinks will help him get back in the game. It ain't working very well.

Along those lines, in October 2003, the Herald-Leader's John Cheves did a story that was a question-and-answer session with then gubernatorial candidate Ernie Fletcher (I alluded to this yesterday). Here's a portion that dealt with the hot button social issues of abortion, gays and gambling:

October 19, 2003   
Edition: Final
Section: Special
Page: D3

'WE'RE VERY PASSIONATE'
Q&A WITH ERNIE FLETCHER
REPUBLICAN THINKS HE CAN BRING NEEDED CHANGES
Author: John Cheves, Herald-Leader Staff Writer

...Q: Every session of the legislature brings another batch of abortion bills. People feel so passionately about abortion. Are we ever going to see an end to this debate?

A: I don't think anytime in the near future we're going to see an end to the debate. We can work to make sure we support women in difficult situations, to let them know that adoption and other alternatives are there. We can also support reducing unwanted pregnancy. But I don't think debate on this is unhealthy. I think there are passionate reasons why people are pro-life, and why people on the other side take a different view.

Q: We also see a lot of fights in the legislature about legally mandated equal rights for gays and lesbians. How do you feel about that, and why is it such an emotional flashpoint?

A: I think it does because, clearly, you look at the culture, not just here but across the world. There's always strong feelings about that issue. I do believe it's important to keep the standard of traditional marriage intact. But I also want to make sure that we don't discriminate against people based on that issue.

Q: A lot of people want a statewide vote on a constitutional amendment to allow slot machines at racetracks, or maybe even full-fledged casinos. Forget about being governor for a second. As a voter, how would you vote on that?

A: First, we'd have to see exactly what the referendum looked like. But at this time, I don't personally support it.

While Fletcher was clearly on the conservative side of the fence with his answers, he actually showed a great deal of reasonableness, and even understanding, about how the public is divided on these matters. He was very restrained in his answers.

Compare that to the rabid, foaming-at-the-mouth animal that he's become on these issues lately, and the fact that these certainly weren't issues Fletcher spent much time talking about during the first few years of his administration. Funny how that happened.

Pretty remarkable transformation, isn't it?

I guess that's the difference between Fletcher leading in the polls (2003) and trailing by 20 points (2007).

Payback's A Bitch (Or, What Comes Around Goes Around...)

I found this amusing nugget in a question and answer story that John Cheves of the Herald-Leader did with then candidate Ernie Fletcher (R) in October 2003 (and which I'll discuss in greater detail in a little bit):

[Cheves] Q: What's the worst trouble you got into as a kid?

[Fletcher] A: I don't know if this is self-incrimination. Should I answer this? I was quite a rowdy kid in school. In the first grade, I remember -- and this still sticks in my memory very vividly -- I remember somebody walking down the aisle, and me sticking my foot out and tripping them. Miss Irene took me before the whole class and paddled me. That left an impression. I haven't tripped anybody since.

It sure does seem like the Kentucky Republican establishment stuck out its collective foot and tripped Fletcher as he was grappling with indictments, pardons and the 5th Amendment, doesn't it? Or maybe Doug Doerting was the kid Fletcher tripped (remember, they were classmates at Lafayette High School) and after 50 years he got his payback, with interest?

Either way, there is much to love about Fletcher's 2003 answer...

The Hunter Bates Problem

More than two years, when the Merit scandal was in its infancy and Governor Fletcher (R) was beginning to trip-and-fall in dealing with the fallout from the initial stories, I posited a theory that Fletcher's loss of Hunter Bates (R) as his 2003 running mate was the "common thread" that ran through his missteps, poor advice, and bad timing that plagued his first year and a half in office.

Well, in the two plus years since, I feel even more strongly that the absence of Bates was one that Fletcher never recovered from. Instead of having an able captain to steer the ship, Fletcher thought that he, Groves, Cave, Glenna, and later Rudolph, were more than capable of crossing the ocean on their own. A fool's journey it was.

Here's a little of what I wrote back in July 2005:

Losing Hunter Bates did not cost Fletcher the election. They had the money and the simple message that things were bad and they needed to be changed and they were ones that would do it because they would bring in fresh faces not contaminated by previous administrations.

But losing Hunter Bates will likely cost Fletcher his office.

If you run on a message of reform you have to expect that all eyes will be on how your actions differ from the past. We all knew that. The press knew that. The Republicans knew that. Apparently, Ernie Fletcher and Steve Pence did not.

As a result, no one had a clue about how to mind the store. Steve Pence was too busy being lieutenant governor, Justice Secretary, Military Judge, and creator of his own secret police (with his own gun, and probably a badge as well).

In contrast, Hunter Bates would have been the lieutenant governor who would have known how to manage the process. I suspect the merit hirings based on political fealty would have still occurred, but I have no doubt that there would be no trail of Blackberry messages, e-mails, no spreadsheets of county contacts for merit job hirings, no over-the-top requests in writing to hire relatives and friends, no written hit list, no revolving door of press secretaries and communications directors, and no environment where the young staff would rather take immunity and testify than stand in the foxhole with the embattled governor.

And when the probe broke, Bates would have had the experience and sense to know how to handle it -- publicly. He would always have had McConnell's ear and guidance, and Fletcher would have had no choice but listen and do as told. Apparently, no one "tells" Steve Pence how to do anything and Fletcher seems incapable or unwilling to do anything about it. Fletcher too has not heeded the advice of McConnell and Rogers. They are not the Republican power centers of Kentucky by chance.

I have no love for Mitch McConnell. I disagree with his political philosophy almost entirely. But having been in this field for a decade, I have tremendous respect for his abilities, tactics, and fearlessness. In fact, I don't think there's a higher compliment in politics than to be despised and respected at the same time.

But McConnell's kids would never have let this mess get so out of hand and out of control. If Ellen Williams were still Republican Party Chair, I have little doubt how quickly she'd have put the Democrats on the defensive from Day 1 and keep them there. Instead we will remember how Fletcher golfed several days a week in the middle of the indictments, how Steve Pence said “no one asked him” to investigate Doerting’s complaint before the Attorney General had to do so himself, and we’ll always remember how they would “clean up the mess” and bring people into government “who have rock solid values” and there would be no more “good-ol boy” style of government.

There is little doubt that Fletcher is a one-termer. His legitimacy for being in office has evaporated, he's allowed public opinion about him to solidify (new poll shows him not getting even a majority of Republican support), and has alienated himself and his administration from too many who are responsible for this man being in office. McConnell has too much on his plate right now with a sinking President, a popular distrust of congressional leadership, and making sure he's the next Senate majority leader.

Besides, from all accounts, McConnell and Rogers tried to help Fletcher and advise him on how to handle this mess. They didn't listen and I'm sure McConnell in his own understated way will let it be known that he tried but the good doctor didn't listen.

Arrogant and incompetent. Are there any other traits so toxic when mixed?

Since that July 2005 post, I think it's clear how badly Fletcher needed smart political advice. He never got it from those he trusted and he never listened to those who weren't one of his early disciples. Turned out that even Lt. Governor Pence (R) bolted after a year and, in hindsight, apparently argued against the path Fletcher eventually took.

It's impossible to point to one thing as the downfall for the massive failure of the Fletcher administration, but most of his problems grew out of bad political judgment and I can't believe for a moment that if Bates were his #2 during these four years that we would have seen such an alienation of McConnell and a large core of the Kentucky Republican establishment, the ever-changing themes and positions Fletcher took, and the utter failure of Fletcher to deal with the Merit scandal.

You don't replace Hunter Bates' political acumen with the unimpressive crew that still worship the man who will go down in Kentucky history as having gone from Republican savior to David Koresh in four short years.

Thoughts?

Ouch! Fletcher Badly Underperforms His 2003 Fundraising

According to the Courier-Journal's blog, Governor Fletcher (R) has reported raising just $3.46 million for the general election -- and that apparently includes $628,000 received from Republican Party of Kentucky -- and has just $1.24 million left in the bank for the final month.

As I posted yesterday, Fletcher raised $4.14 million during the same time frame in 2003 when he was just a challenger for an open seat, and had more than $2 million on-hand one month out. And don't forget about the currently AWOL RGA which was blasting away with $2 million in television as well.

Steve Beshear (D) hasn't reported yet (tomorrow is the deadline), but it will be instructive to learn whether he outraised the incumbent governor during the general election. There have been rumors that Beshear will report around $4 million, but those are just rumors and the campaign has been tight-lipped about it fundraising so I don't know what's fact or fiction right now.

How Much Will Fletcher Report?

The pre-32 day campaign finance report for the gubernatorial candidates was due last Friday but they have through Wednesday to get their filings in before they are delinquent. There has been endless talk that Governor Fletcher (R) continues to have substantial fundraising problems, so the big question is how much money will Kentucky's first Republican governor in 32 years report raising for his general election fundraising?

To give you a benchmark, when Fletcher was just a challenger in 2003 he reported raising $4.14 million for the general election in his pre-28 day report, as well as having more than $2 million in cash-on-hand. Will Fletcher top that threshold now as the incumbent?

Seems that he'll need every dime since there's still no sign of a return by the Republican Governors Association (RGA), which stopped running television ads on his behalf about 10 days ago and no one seems to know whether they've cut that money cord to Fletcher or if they plan to come back. Recall that the RGA spent about $2 million in independent ads in 2003 to boost Fletcher.

Will our incumbent governor even outraise his Democratic challenger?

It's incredible to even raise that possibility, isn't it? When is the last time you can recall a Democratic challenger outraise a Republican incumbent in a general election in such a high-level race? I'm sure there are examples, though none are coming to mind right now.

I guess we'll know in about 48 hours...