BluegrassReport.org

Fletcher Received Only 3 Contributions From Frankfort Residents In Final Weeks

Looks like former Governor Fletcher (R) didn't have many friends in the state's capital in the final weeks. He received a donation from just one person whose last name wasn't Fletcher, compared to the 114 who gave to Governor Beshear (D):

Just 3 Here Gave To Fletcher In Last Weeks Of Campaign
By Paul Glasser (State Journal)

Campaign finance records show local support for Ernie Fletcher dropped sharply during the final weeks in the gubernatorial campaign against Steve Beshear.

Fletcher only raised $1,400 from three individuals, including his brother Harold, between late October and Nov. 6. Candidates are only required to report contributions of more than $100 and individuals can only give $1,000 per candidate in each election cycle.

During the same period, Beshear raised about $43,000 from 116 Franklin County supporters, according to the records with the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance.

...The short list of contributors that supported Fletcher at the end of the campaign include: financial manager Rachel Fletcher, 2267 Cardwell Lane, $500; physical therapist A. Nitz, 132 Farmbrook Circle, $500; and architect Harold Fletcher, 2267 Cardwell Lane, $400.

The Carnage

Joe Gerth has an excellent column in today's Courier-Journal on the trail of carnage left by Governor Fletcher's (R) landslide defeat of last week, including these remarkable tidbits:

Gov. Ernie Fletcher won 28 counties in Tuesday's election -- all but six of which were in the "Old Fifth," a triangular area that ran from Monroe County up to Jessamine County and back to Harlan County.

There were 28 counties in the "Old Fifth," which was redrawn after Kentucky lost one congressional seat following the 1990 census.

Unlike in 2003, when Fletcher won dozens of Democratic counties across the state, on Tuesday he didn't carry one county where the GOP is in the minority.

And he lost in five counties where Republicans are the majority party.

Astonishingly, Fletcher lost Martin County, the home of Republican National Committee Chairman Mike Duncan, where 73 percent of voters are Republicans.

He also lost Leslie County, which is 86 percent Republican...lost in 75 percent Republican Owsley, 65 percent Republican Edmonson and 55 percent Republican Johnson counties.

Even Fletcher's own voters weren't interested in another four years of him...

A Keeper

How painful was it for The Paducah Sun editors to have to put together this front page?

A reader is mailing me a copy for the political scrapbook. It's a keeper, for sure.

So Much For The Impenetrable GOP Fortress That Is Northern Kentucky

In light of last night's amazing seven point victory by Gov.-elect Steve Beshear (D) in the three Northern Kentucky counties (Campbell, Kenton and Boone), I thought it would be a good time to remind everyone how certain some Republican leaders were that Beshear could not pierce their GOP fortress, even with a pariah at the top of the Republican ticket:

Pretty much, Northern Kentucky is Republican territory at this point," Kenton County Republican Chairman Greg Shipmate said.

...

[State Sen. Katie] Stine said even a Democratic elected official from Campbell County told the governor: "You won't have any problem with this county."

I'll be looking for even better comments in the next day or two. It sure does seem that the GOP's NKY bubble can be popped with the right Democratic candidates.

Watch out Damon Thayer (R) and Jack Westwood (R), we're coming after you next...

Denial Sets In For Republicans

I can't help but notice that some of our Republican friends are posting comments this morning that last night's election told us nothing other than the voters dislike Governor Fletcher (R) and that Democrats didn't gain anything last night and that U.S. Senator McConnell (R) is just fine.

No doubt, there was a palpable feeling that Fletcher needed to be ousted, and that surely drove much of the voters' desire. Those are cute talking points, but they fail to address things like this:

1. Why has new voters registering as Republican plummeted since 2005, after reaching parity that year, especially its precipitous drop for five consecutive months heading into yesterday's election?
                     
2. Why are Senator McConnell's (R) favorables and re-elect numbers under that magical 50% mark in most independent polls?
                        
3. Why is Hillary Clinton (D) is outperforming Senator McConnell (R) in Kentucky in hypothetical general election match-up?

And that does even address President Bush's (R) rock-bottom job approval in Kentucky, the fact that Democrats are in full-control of two crucial congressional districts, that Fletcher lost the three Northern Kentucky counties by seven points -- when Republican leadership made clear in recent weeks that NKY would remain a Fletcher strong-hold.

It's understandable that Republicans are going to try to find the silver-lining in last night's results, but it's important to separate fact from fiction and we're already seeing them spin their little fables, hoping the media will report the same.

Kentucky has not magically transformed itself into a blue state, but voters sure seems a lot more willing to embrace Democrats of late, based on their actions at the voting booth, how they are registering to vote, and their attitudes that recent polling has made very clear.

Though, as a Democrat, I sure hope this state of denial lingers for a while...

BGR Readers Rock!

You guys were quite impressive with your over/under predictions in the various counties, with the majority going 14-5 with their picks. Even more impressive is that (with the exception of the Northern Kentucky counties), the over/under line was very, very close to actual results, meaning it was a much tougher call for the majority of readers to pick the correct result.

Below are the results. The only counties missed (shaded in red) were the ones that were very close to the actual over/under line, giving you little room for error. Nicely done.

County (Over/Under)	% Predicting OVER	% Predicting UNDER	Fletcher 2003	Fletcher 2007
Franklin (30%)	32%	68%	47%	26.6%
Jefferson (35%)	22%	78%	49%	34.5%
Fayette (40%)	33%	67%	54%	41.0%
Boone (65%)	21%	79%	72%	50.8%
Kenton (60%)	20%	80%	65%	45.1%
Campbell (60%)	16%	84%	63%	44.4%
Warren (50%)	21%	79%	61%	44.9%
Oldham (55%)	28%	72%	68%	51.5%
Daviess (45%)	16%	84%	52%	35.6%
McCracken (47%)	20%	80%	59%	43.4%
Pulaski (62%)	32%	68%	73%	62.3%
Pike (30%)	41%	59%	43%	28.7%
Floyd (20%)	46%	54%	34%	19.4%
Boyd (40%)	31%	69%	42%	34.0%
Shelby (45%)	25%	75%	60%	44.9%
Madison (45%)	12%	88%	59%	47.3%
Hopkins (45%)	19%	81%	57%	36.2%
Christian (45%)	25%	75%	55%	48.2%
Hardin (45%)	25%	75%	60%	48.2%

As far as the over/under on the specific races, you were a little less accurate, but the over/under line was very close to final result in all but Grayson's and Farmer's contests:

Candidate [Office]	Over/Under Line	% Predicting OVER	% Predicting UNDER	Final Result
Fletcher (R) [Gov]	42%	23%	77%	41.3%
Lee (R) [AG]	42%	11%	89%	39.5%
Greenwell (R) [Auditor]	40%	16%	84%	40.8%
Grayson (R) [SOS]	52%	47%	53%	57.1%
Wheeler (R) [Treasurer]	41%	21%	79%	42.5%
Farmer (R) [Ag Comm]	55%	78%	22%	64.0%

Finally, in the question asking which of the following candidates would get the smallest percentage of the vote, you came close:

Linda Greenwell (R) -- 35%
Stan Lee (R) -- 28%
Melinda Wheeler (R) -- 20%
Ernie Fletcher (R) -- 17%

The Biggest Story of The Night -- Northern Kentucky

The one thing that really stands out for me this evening is Gov.-elect Beshear's (R) romping in Northern Kentucky:

• Campbell County -- Beshear 55.6%, Fletcher 44.4% (Beshear +11.2%)
• Kenton County -- Beshear 54.9%, Fletcher 45.1% (Beshear +9.8%)
• Boone County -- Fletcher 50.8%, Beshear 49.2% (Fletcher +1.6%)

When taken as a whole, Beshear defeated Fletcher in the three Northern counties by a 38,578 to 33,480 vote margin or a whopping 53.5% to 46.5% spread. He only lost Boone County by 300 votes. Incredible. Especially considering that Fletcher won these counties in 2003 by 26, 30 and 44 points, respectively.

Aside from the remarkable performance by a Democrat in Northern Kentucky, it's even more breathtaking when one considers how much Governor Fletcher (R) apparently did for those counties over the past four years.

Finally, this should give State Sen. Damon Thayer (R) and State Sen. Jack Westwood (R) a great deal of pause as their seats, in those counties, are up next year.

To me, that's the story of the night. Amazing.

P.S. -- The second biggest story of the night is Secretary of State Trey Grayson's (R) very impressive 14-point victory. That's an amazing feat given the environment that Fletcher left for him. While I wanted a Democrat to win that seat, it's hard to be upset that Trey was re-elected. I've never been shy about my affection for Trey -- despite that little R after his name -- but he's one of the good guys in politics but I'm certain he'll be our opponent for one of the big offices in the very near future.

Until then, congrats Trey. You earned it and deserved it.

Election Track: GOVERNOR'S RACE

Please feel free to use this as an open thread this evening on the governor's race. I'll be updating this post all night as returns come in. Just scroll down for fresh updates.

5:45 PM -- Polls in the Eastern Time Zone close in 15 minutes. From first- and second-hand reports of early absentee ballot counts and anecdotal evidence of turnout around the state, things seem on track for a very big night for Steve Beshear (D) to deliver the career-ending landslide defeat of Governor Ernie Fletcher (R).

6:10 PM -- Beshear +14 in early absentees from a handful of counties.

6:33 PM -- Pol Watchers is reporting:

Gov. Ernie Fletcher said he's trying to keep on an “even keel” because he expects early results may show him trailing in urban areas, such as Louisville or even his home of Lexington.

You think? Something tells me that will be the least of his worries shortly...

6:34 PM -- Here we go...8% reporting, it's Beshear +28, 64-36. 

6:36 PM -- With 46% of Jefferson County reporting, Beshear leading by a staggering 28,000 votes, 64.5% to 35.5%.

6:44 PM -- 11.4% reporting, Beshear 65, Fletcher 35 (+30).

6:48 PM -- A perspective:

• Beshear +20 in Shelby County -- Fletcher +20 in 2003
• Beshear +7 in Campbell County -- Fletcher +26 in 2003

6:55 PM -- In Jefferson County with 56% reporting:

• Beshear 66-34
• Conway 71-29
• Luallen 65-35
• Hollenbach 65-35
• Grayson 54-46 (this bodes well for Trey)
• Farmer 60-40

7:05 PM -- 20% reporting -- Beshear 64.2, Fletcher 35.8.

7:15 PM -- Pol Watchers is reporting that U.S. Senator McConnell (R) doesn't plan to be in Kentucky this evening and is instead sending a staffer.

Mark Hebert:

It appears Kentucky GOP leaders have thrown in the towel on Ernie Fletcher's reelection chances and are now worried about the down ballot races of Trey Grayson and Richie Farmer.

Watch this story and stay with it until the end when WHAS 11's Joe Arnold talks to former deputy White House political director Scott Jennings. Jennings essentially says the race is over for governor.

7:20 PM -- 25% reporting: Beshear +25, Conway +30, Luallen +26, Hollenbach +25, Farmer +24, Grayson +10. Nothing interesting about this election.

7:25 PM -- Forgy is on KET right now, blaming Republicans for Fletcher's situation, complaining that $5 million was spent in the primary against the governor. Called the party "fractured" and that Fletcher couldn't get back the element that Mitch McConnell and Steve Pence took out. Says it's up to the "Louisville faction" to "create the unity" and putting party back together. When asked if Forgy is going to challenge McConnell he refused to say but said he was "very angry" and so were others at the GOP Election Night event.

Run Larry, Run!

7:30 PM -- Incredible. Pat Crowley just reported that Fletcher has LOST the absentee ballots in Boone County, a county which he won by a staggering 44 points in 2003!

7:50 PM -- 45 percent in -- Beshear leads 60-40.

8:00 PM -- Here's what it looks like at the Democratic Party Victory Party:

8:02 PM -- The Herald-Leader's John Cheves has this:

U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Versailles, just trotted through the press room with an ear-to-ear grin, saying hello to everyone, slapping backs and wishing folks a great evening.

The congressman bolted into a V.I.P. crowd faster than I could follow, but he's clearly enjoying Election Night 2007 more than he did Election Night 2003. That's when Ernie Fletcher clobbered him by a 10-point margin and became the first Republican governor in a generation.

Four years later, Chandler has Fletcher's old seat in the U.S. House representing Central Kentucky; he's in the majority party in Congress; and he belongs to the powerful House Appropriations Committee, which decides federal spending. By contrast, the evening's election returns suggest Fletcher soon could be looking for work.

"I think we've brought the Democrats back home tonight," said Democratic State Auditor Crit Luallen, who is cruising to re-election tonight over Republican Linda Greenwell.

8:18 PM -- 63% reporting and Beshear leads 61% to 39%.

Noteworthy, despite the efforts of the Paducah Sun, Beshear has won McCracken County by 20 points. Beshear leads in Warren County by 12 (Fletcher won by 22 in 2003), and has won Shelby County by 10 (Fletcher won by 20 in 2003), and remarkably Beshear leads in Campbell County by 14 points with 74% reporting, a county Fletcher won by 26 in 2003. Incredible.

8:25 PM -- The Courier-Journal has called the race for Steve Beshear (D)!

8:36 PM -- Good Lord, Fletcher defeated Beshear in Boone County by less than 2 points. Yes, you heard that right. The county which Fletcher won by 44 points in 2003 was effectively a dead-heat four years later. And given that Beshear won Campbell County by 12 points (Kenton hasn't reported yet), this might be the biggest story of Election Night. This will rock the conventional wisdom that Republicans own Northern Kentucky. Amazing.

8:47 PM -- 84% reporting, Beshear still dominating race, leading by 19 points -- 59.5 to 40.5%.

8:55 PM -- I've just learned that Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) has just spoken to Gov.-elect Steve Beshear (D) a few moments ago to offer his congratulations...(on a personal note, several times a week Gov. Schweitzer wanted updated polling numbers on the Kentucky race and was as excited about Election Night as anyone)

9:00 PM -- Governor Fletcher has just conceded and, frankly, I don't recognize this humbled man. He's doing a good job being gracious. I did not expect that given the very nasty race he ran but we should be pleased.

Now's he offering a laundry-list of his accomplishments -- things he didn't emphasize during the campaign -- but is again being untruthful about job growth during his term (100,000 new jobs weren't created -- only 60,000). Some things never change.

Now he's gone from humble to preachy. Stop while you're ahead, guv.

9:18 PM: Front page of the Courier-Journal's website:

9:30 PM -- DitchMitch has an excellent county-by-county color-coded chart of the governor's race. Check it out.

9:45 PM -- Gov.-elect Beshear just gave his victory speech. How sweet it is. What a remarkable shift of a political environment in just the past few years. Wow. Democrats should feel good about what we just accomplished and now we can start focusing on helping Beshear get his administration off the ground, take out U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R), take back the Kentucky State Senate, and add a few congressional seats to the Democratic side of the aisle.

FINAL RESULT: Beshear (D) 59%, Fletcher (R) 41%

The Story Of The 2007 Election

If one think stands out for me during this election cycle, it was the realization that the more Governor Fletcher (R) tried to trot out the tired old fear tactics on social issues, the more Steve Beshear's (D) lead grew.

While Fletcher never got with 15 points of Beshear in any of the independent polls, a quick glance of the poll track will show that when Fletcher confined his attacks on Beshear to his newly-found opposition to expanded gaming, the lead was in the 16-19 range. But when Fletcher decided to go "all in" and shamelessly pander on the social issues, that lead grew to 20-24 points.

Think for a moment of all the issues that Fletcher tried to base his re-election fantasy on:

• expanded-gaming
• Kentucky Central
• immigration
• guns
• abortion
• gay marriage/domestic partner benefits
• Ten Commandments

None of it worked, except maybe to galvanize Democrats and ensure they voted on Election Day and did not take the outcome for granted. 

The one thing Fletcher never talked about was his record. Of course, he too realized that he had little to run on, despite blaming everyone else for his problems. If he had, Fletcher might have kept his loss closer to 10 points than 20 points.

Ultimately, what we learned about Ernie Fletcher was that he was the luckiest man in Kentucky in 2003 when he ran during a Democratic scandal in the state, at a time of national uncertainty, with a then popular president (at least in Kentucky), and he had the McConnell machine determined to elect its first Republican governor in 32 years. But he also suffered from a chronic affliction that can only be described as an enormous political blind-spot.

Once elected, Fletcher proved himself to be a minor leaguer trying to compete in the major leagues and couldn't. He pushed the McConnell crowd out of the inner circle (he was too smart for them), he began to believe his own press releases, and he surrounded himself with political lightweights like Daniel Groves, Stan Cave, Robbie Rudolph and Brett Hall whose collective chief virtue was that their arrogance was eclipsed only by their incompetence. Oh, and he took political advice from Larry Forgy.

And for his death knell, Fletcher failed to realize the lessons of 2006 when the public no longer looked to the Republican Party as the guarantors of moral and ethical behavior and that their "values" no longer were viewed as superior to Democrats'. Nationally, voters now trust Democrats more than Republicans on every single issue tested and the attempts by some remaining behind-the-times Republicans to demagogue on social issues just doesn't work any longer. Apparently, Fletcher didn't the get the memo from his crack team of advisers.

To sum it up, this isn't 2003 any longer. The voters are much smarter than the politicians give them credit for being and this election didn't require very much deep analysis on their part. The fact that Ernie Fletcher spent millions of dollars trying to spin a fable didn't mean the voters were going to buy it. They heard the attacks but they rang hollow this time. The voters realized over the past few years that Fletcher was a hypocritical phony who lost his privilege to lead the people that trusted him to do so in 2003. They also rejected the shameless pandering of candidates like Stan Lee, Linda Greenwell, and Melinda Wheeler.

After Kentucky Democrats had largely lost their way with the public four years ago -- thanks to many factors including Paul Patton, 9/11, the temporary rise of the religious right, and their own arrogance -- the voters went in a different direction. But Democrats re-adjusted, learned from their mistakes, new Democratic leaders emerged and the political climate changed at just the right time.

This time, the voters are ready to reward the party that put forth the better candidates, ran on the better agenda, and for which they now trust more than the other guys on the most important issues of the day.

That's the story of 2007 and why Ernie Fletcher is about to join the unemployment line. This is going to be a very fun evening...

Boo Hoo, Ernie

We can thank Bill Bartleman from The Paducah Sun for including this tidbit in his story:

Beshear, a Democrat, appeared upbeat and confident but challenged about 100 supporters at Backwoods BBQ not to take the race for granted and to continue working until the polls close today at 6 p.m.

...Fletcher, meanwhile, met with about a dozen supporters at Barkley Regional Airport and urged them to ignore the polls.

"100 supporters" versus "a dozen supporters" for their separate appearances in Paducah yesterday. That speaks volumes, doesn't it?

But Governor Fletcher (R) never forgets to remind us how his problems are someone else's fault -- never his own:

Fletcher implied that the media polls may be slated to help Beshear.

“The Louisville Courier-Journal has been against me since I ran for governor four years ago and would like nothing more than to see liberal Steve Beshear elected,” Fletcher said.

Pat Crowley noted the same thing about the two candidates' Northern Kentucky appearances last night -- "well over 100" for Beshear, few for Fletcher.

Good riddance...

Projections: Governor's Race (Beshear 61, Fletcher 39) **REVISITED**

This post was originally published on October 17, so I thought I'd trot it out for your thoughts and analysis on this Election Day, particularly as far as how things are looking in your own county.

Finally, this is your last chance to offer your final predictions for tonight's election.

Here are my final numbers:

• Governor: Beshear (D) 61 -- Fletcher (R) 39
• Attorney General: Conway (D) 62 -- Lee (R) 38         
• Auditor: Luallen (D) 63 -- Greenwell (R) 37
• Treasurer: Hollenbach (D) 58 -- Wheeler (R) 42
• Secretary of State: no prediction -- too close to call
• Agriculture Commissioner: Farmer (R) 56 -- Williams (D) 42

.....................................................................................................

With 20 days until Election Day, and with the dynamics having largely played out in the governor's race, I think it's time to start making some projections on how things are likely to end-up on November 6th. (Note: for those of you who like getting into the weeds with data and numbers, you'll love this. The rest of you will probably glaze-over.)

I spent the past weeks looking at historical election data from some selected statewide races over the past decade to better understand the voters in the various counties. In particular, I pulled out statewide data from President Bush's (R) big margin in 2004, President Clinton's (D) narrow victory in 1996, Governor Fletcher's (R) 10-point win in 2003, and Jonathan Miller's (D) 12-point victory in 2003.

I picked these four races because they showed a broad range of the voters' behavior in each county over a period of a decade. For example, I picked Miller because he was the one Democrat that won handily in 2003, a year when the Republican wind blew very strongly. Miller's numbers provide a soft outer limit of how much support a Democrat could get in the various counties in such an election. Conversely, Bush's 2004 victory should provide an outer limit on the other side of the divide. Granted, counties have changed a great deal over a decade, so this is not science, but simply a rough sketch of counties have behaved in recent statewide elections.

As far as selecting counties, it turns out that if you look at the block of voters from the state's 20 largest counties -- but remove Laurel (#14) for Shelby (#28) -- not only do they account for almost exactly half of the registered voters but, as a group, they remarkably mimic both the statewide voter registration breakdown as well as the ultimate statewide results in these elections. Regardless of whether you're looking at the 1996 presidential, 2004 presidential, or 2003 gubernatorial elections, those 20 counties have been right on target.

So, let's take a look at those 20 counties. The number next to the county names is the current voter registration breakdown between just Democrats and Republicans. I omitted independent voters to get a cleaner gauge of how the counties are registered, versus how they've behaved on Election Day.

Finally, I've offered my projections on how I think the gubernatorial race will play-out in each county. While I think Beshear will outperform Miller's 2003 performance (when he won by 12) across the state, I think he will blow-out Fletcher in the Louisville media market given the Northup primary support and the polling which shows Fletcher trailing by vast margins in the region.

Using the single assumption that turnout in each of these counties will be exactly the same as the 2003 general election (by party), these projections would have Steve Beshear (D) defeating Governor Fletcher (R) by a 60.9% to 39.1% margin on Election Day, a margin that should mimic the statewide numbers if correct.

So, that's my on-the-record projections. How about yours? How do you think the various counties will vote next month? What's your projection of the final outcome?

While this is not offered as a scientific analysis of the race, I think looking at the history of some different elections provide us with enough information to make some assumptions.

Have fun.

County (%R/%D)	Bush v. Kerry (2004)	Dole v. Clinton (1996)	Fletcher v. Chandler (2003)	Koenig v. Miller (2003)	Fletcher v. Beshear (2007)
Boone (58/42)	72/28	64/36	72/28	70/30	63/37
Boyd (35/65)	53/47	42/58	42/58	38/62	37/63
Bullitt (38/62)	68/32	53/47	59/41	49/51	45/55
Campbell (49/51)	64/36	58/42	63/37	60/40	57/43
Christian (32/68)	67/33	55/45	55/45	48/52	45/55
Daviess (32/68)	62/38	51/49	52/48	43/57	41/59
Fayette (41/59)	53/47	50/50	54/46	38/62	37/63
Floyd (9/91)	37/63	25/75	34/66	19/81	16/84
Franklin (19/81)	51/49	39/61	47/53	28/72	26/74
Hardin (41/59)	68/32	53/47	60/40	49/51	44/56
Hopkins (24/76)	66/34	47/53	57/43	44/56	42/58
Jefferson (36/64)	49/51	44/56	49/51	39/61	29/71
Kenton (50/50)	66/34	60/40	65/35	63/37	58/42
McCracken (29/71)	62/38	45/55	59/41	49/51	44/56
Madison (41/59)	62/38	53/47	59/41	41/59	42/58
Oldham (58/42)	70/30	63/37	68/32	58/42	54/46
Pike (22/78)	47/53	34/66	43/57	31/69	26/74
Pulaski (71/29)	77/23	69/31	73/27	63/37	59/41
Shelby (38/62)	67/33	53/47	60/40	45/55	44/56
Warren (39/61)	64/36	58/42	61/39	50/50	48/52
Counties Total (39/61)	58/42	49/51	55/45	44/56	39.1/60.9
Statewide (39/61)	60/40	49.5/50.5	55/45	43/57	?

(One final note: As I did with the voter registration breakdown for the various counties, I removed Ross Perot's 8.7% of the vote in 1996 and only showed the percentage among those voting for either Clinton or Dole in 1996 to again allow for an easier read of the partisan movement in the counties for each election.)

Happy Get-Rid-Of-Fletcher Day!

In less than 12 hours, voters will end Governor Fletcher's (R) political career with a devastating landslide loss. How sweet it will be. After four years of incompetence, dishonesty and corruption it will be a breath of fresh air to welcome an experienced and ethical team to take-over the reigns of state government.

On this Election Day, here are how a few conservatives see things evolving:

The conservative publication, National Review:

"Gov. Ernie Fletcher’s (R.) career is expected to end today at the hands of former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear (D.)."

Log Cabin Republicans:

"It's a foregone conclusion that Gov. Fletcher is going to lose decidedly tomorrow, and these anti-gay campaign tactics are not going to save his campaign," said Jimmy Lasalvia, president of the Kentucky chapter of the Log Cabin Republicans, a group that favors gay rights. "It's just pathetic," he said of the attacks on Beshear.

Meanwhile, some Republicans continue to refuse to accept any responsibility for Fletcher's corruption and keep blaming everyone but themselves:

Louisville businessman Bill Stone is one of the governor's most vocal supporters. He says if Fletcher had stuck with talking about his accomplishments, he'd be winning, blaming a potential Fletcher defeat on the state's two largest newspapers.

“This would be a Courier-Journal/Herald-Leader defeat,” he says.

It's never their fault, is it?

Funny thing is that not a single newspaper endorsed these crooks. Not one.

NKY Abandons Fletcher On Election Eve

Pat Crowley's latest tells you everything you need to know about the race when Governor Fletcher (R) is pretty much abandoned on Election Eve in his base -- Northern Kentucky.

I covered visits to NKY today by both gubernatorial candidates. There was no comparison. Before I get accused of bias, remember, I attended both, and the Dems by far had the most energy, people and excitement. Steve Beshear supporters, well over 100 of them, packed the KY Speedway General Offices. There party leaders, members of organized labor, elected officials, campaign volunteers and lots of others.

Gov. Fletcher only attracted one elected official, one appointed official and one party leader. A group of home schoolers did turn out...

But with all the GOP statehouse and county officials in NKY, none came out for his election eve visit.

Curious whether "a group of home schoolers" is simply U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis' (R) six children (who are home schooled)...I think that's a joke, but maybe not, considering just how big of a pariah Fletcher has become to Republicans of late.

Ted Jackson's "End Times" Prophecy Coming True?

The best thing that Governor Fletcher (R) and his dummy, Robbie Rudolph (R), could do in these final days to ensure a strong Democratic turnout tomorrow is to get into the mud and try to scare voters about things that have nothing to do with being governor.

Of course, the voters stopped listening to such Gods, guns and gays apocalypse since the 2004 presidential race, but Fletcher and Crooks don't appear deterred:

"We're taking the message to the voters to show really a stark contrast between our governor and our opponent," said Rudolph, adding Beshear favors abortion rights, gay rights and keeping the 10 Commandments out of public schools and public buildings.

Moreover, I'm seeing some anecdotal evidence that this very tactic may create some blowback that may really hurt Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R). Here's just one of several similar e-mails from readers that I've received this morning:

Have had two people tell me this a.m. that they received Pat Boone calls over the weekend and all it did was convince them to vote the straight D ticket instead of splitting their ballot.  The last minute effort to help the top of the ticket may hurt the bottom.

If Fletcher and Rudolph had a little higher political IQ, I'd wonder whether they intended for such an outcome given that the worst-kept secret in Kentucky is that they hope to bring down both Grayson and Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer (R) along with them, completing Ted Jackson's End Times prophecy of earlier this year when he argued:

"Ernie Fletcher is the David Koresh of Kentucky Republican politics...He's boarded the windows and locked the doors and said, 'Take it from us, we'll burn it to the ground.'"

But then we know that both Fletcher and Rudolph have an elementary school level political IQ (which is probably why they routinely cite a recent elementary school mock election as evidence that the adult-based polls are wrong), so it's hard to imagine they could concoct such a scheme in the first place. Ultimately, this is probably all they could come up with in the final days.

However, once GOP lunatic Marcus Carey began publicly trying to help Fletcher a few months ago, it did dawn on me that The Four Horsemen of Fletcher's Apocalypse had revealed themselves publicly: Larry Forgy, Brett Hall, Brian Goettl, and finally Marcus Carey.

Food for thought...

Final SurveyUSA Poll: Beshear 59, Fletcher 39

SurveyUSA has just released its final poll of the governor's race and they have Steve Beshear (D) routing our incumbent Governor Fletcher (R) by an amazing 59 percent to 39 percent margin.

The think about the survey's breakdown that is remarkable is that Beshear is getting twice as much support from Republicans (27%) than Fletcher is getting from Democrats (14%). As we've often discussed here, since Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 3:2 margin in Kentucky, those numbers must be reversed for a Republican to win statewide office.

One final note, the most consistent thing about all of the 17+ independent polls done in this race is that Fletcher remained in the 30s the whole time, with the two exceptions where polls had him getting 40 percent, but never more than that. It seems that 60 percent of Kentucky never gave this incompetent and corrupt governor a second look.

Make That 13-0

With today's endorsement of Steve Beshear (D) by the University of Kentucky's Kentucky Kernel (another paper that had endorsed Governor Fletcher (R) in 2003), the total tally for newspaper endorsements is Beshear 13, Fletcher 0.

Newspapers Endorsing Steve Beshear (D)

The Courier-Journal (Louisville)
Lexington Herald-Leader
The Enquirer (Cincinnati)
The Kentucky Post (Northern Kentucky)
The News-Enterprise (Hardin County)
The Daily Independent (Ashland)
The Gleaner (Henderson)
The Advocate-Messenger (Danville)
The Winchester Sun
The Kentucky Standard (Bardstown)
LEO (Louisville)
City Beat (Cincinnati)
The Kentucky Kernel (UK, Lexington)

Newspapers Endorsing Governor Fletcher (R)

None.

An incumbent governor can't get a single newspaper endorsement.

Priceless.

The Raving Lunatic And Hateful Bigot That Is Pat Boone

Who knew Pat Boone was such a raving lunatic, as well as Bush-loving, anti-free speech, anti-science bigot himself? Here's his annotated Wikipedia entry:

In 2006, Boone penned an article for WorldNetDaily in which he argued that Democrats and others who are against the Iraq War cannot, under any circumstances, be considered patriotic.[7] He was interviewed by Neil Cavuto on Fox News, where he expressed his outrage against the opponents of George W. Bush (namely the Dixie Chicks) that their criticisms of the President showed they did not "respect their elders".[8] Another article defended Mel Gibson after the actor was recorded making an anti-Semitic rant.[9] In early 2007, Boone wrote two articles claiming that the theory of evolution is an "absurd," "nonsensical" "bankrupt false religion." [10][11] He later wrote an editorial where he made up a fake fairy tale where a young Prince Charming was seduced by a dwarf, got AIDS, and then overdosed. [12][13]

You can contact his agency -- Music City Artists -- at their Nashville office (615-383-4791) and let them know what you think of their client's efforts to spread his hatred and bigotry in the Kentucky governor's race.

(In case you don't know what I'm referring to, click here).