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Hawpe "obsessed with defeating strong Republicans," Northup says

Did you catch Anne Northup's letter in yesterday's Courier-Journal?

The ex-Congresswoman takes on David Hawpe and does her dead level best to whip him from pillar to post. At best, it's an example of sour grapes. At worst, well, it's just patently outrageous.

I don't know David Hawpe personally.  I occasionally disagree with his columns, but he's held a lot of powerful feet to the fire over the years.  It's not an easy job, but he does it well.

Here are some priceless nuggets of "wisdom" from the letter:

The truth is, David Hawpe is obsessed with defeating strong Republicans who have conservative values, especially ones with competitive races. After 10 years of being one of those people, I can attest that he is abusive and dishonest.

He talked about his desire to defeat me in his speeches to public service organizations, in editorial board meetings with candidates for other offices, in his solicitations of leaders in predominantly Democratic areas to do more for my opponents, in statement upon statement to the Forum Fellows that got reported back to me, and in his constant derogatory references to me in totally unrelated columns.

Holy smokes!

Yes, that last one is ONE SENTENCE.  And she blusters on and on like that for quite a while.  It would be funny if I didn't find it so sad.  Keep in mind that all of this comes from a woman who lost not one but two elections within a matter of months.  If she thinks this is going to spark some sort of political comeback, I think she's wrong.

-----

On a lighter note, I'd like to thank Mark for keeping BGR up and running and for inviting me to post.  I probably won't make everyone happy all of the time -- being a reformed Republican, I might occasionally slip back into old habits out of, well, habit -- but please bear with me.

Merry Christmas!

Northup Endorses Giuliani

Last year, Kentucky Congressmen Ron Lewis (R), Ed Whitfield (R) and Hal Rogers (R) endorsed Mitt Romney (R) for president.

Today, former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R) broke ranks with her former colleagues and endorsed Rudy Giuliani (R), as well as agreeing to serve as his Kentucky state chair:

For Immediate Release
Contact: Elliott Bundy
Friday, November 16, 2007

Anne Northup Endorses Rudy Giuliani for President
Former Congresswoman to Serve as Kentucky State Chair
New York City – The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee today announced that former Kentucky Congresswoman Anne Northup has endorsed Mayor Giuliani for President. Northup will serve as Rudy’s Kentucky State Chair.

“Rudy’s experience as a leader proves that he is the only candidate truly committed to fiscal conservative principles,” said Northup, who represented Kentucky’s 3rd Congressional District from 1997 until 2007. “As President, he will also keep America on the offense in the Terrorists’ War on Us, one of the greatest challenges we face. I am proud to support Rudy for President.”

“Anne is a welcomed addition to our team,” said Michael DuHaime, Giuliani’s National Campaign Manager. “We look forward to working with her to grow Rudy’s support in the state and continue spreading the word about his commitment to lowering taxes, slashing wasteful Washington spending and keeping American families safe.”

Let The GOP Circular Firing Squad Begin -- Sen. Bunning Says Northup Would Have Done Better In Today's Election

Governor Fletcher (R) hasn't even conceded yet and the widely-expected GOP fratricide is already underway. Here's what U.S. Senator Jim Bunning (R) told the Courier-Journal:

Bunning: Northup would have done better than Fletcher
James Carroll, The Courier-Journal

With Kentuckians giving their verdicts in the governor's race today, Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., still maintains that the Republicans would have done better with former Rep. Anne Northup at the top of the ticket.

Bunning endorsed Northup instead of Gov. Ernie Fletcher in the Kentucky GOP primary.

"I thought that Anne Northup would be a better candidate in the general election," Bunning told reporters today in a conference call, referring to the former Louisville congreswoman. "And that's the reason I was trying to salvage the Republican Party and our nominee for governor, because I thought Anne would make a much more difficult campaigner to defeat in the general election."

"Obviously, I was in the minority of the Republicans and Ernie prevailed during the primary," the senator said. "But I guarantee you that if Anne Northup had prevailed during the primary, we wouldn't be looking at polls we are looking at presently."

Spectacular.

(P.S. -- Bunning is 100% correct, for once.)

Fletcher Planning Scorched-Earth Effort Against The Kentucky Republican Establishment For Not Backing Him?

One of the most remarkable things of the past year is the sheer number of prominent Republican insiders who have willingly communicated their frustrations about Governor Fletcher (R) directly to me, allowing BGR to be their vehicle for getting out their viewpoint and dropping interesting insider information on what's going on behind the scenes.

Not surprisingly, that's only increased of late, and I assure you we're not talking about second-level know-nothing local people who are coming forward.

The mosaic that is coming into very clear focus is that:

1. Fletcher doesn't care about anyone on the ticket other than himself;
                      
2. He would be more than happy if Trey Grayson (R) lost his re-election as he never got over Trey's flirting with running against him this year, and;
                     
3. Fletcher appears to be tying sticks of dynamite to key Republican establishments and is prepared to detonate them when he loses, blaming them generally for failing to help him during the Merit scandal and specifically for encouraging and backing Anne Northup's (R) primary challenge, which effectively sealed his general election fate.

Along those lines, I'm told by one top Republican insider that Robbie Rudolph (R), Fletcher's running mate, and Chief of Staff Stan Cave are actively meeting and encouraging Larry Forgy (R) to run in next year's Senate race as an independent. They either know they'd have no chance in a primary challenge, or they simply want to defeat Senator McConnell (R) as revenge for what he's done to Fletcher since the Merit scandal began in May 2005.

And it's hard not to conclude that Fletcher's disgraced, foul-mouthed former mouthpiece, Brett Hall, is ready to assist an independent Forgy bid, given his numerous slams of McConnell and Kentucky Republican Party leadership (before the current B Team came along in June), and his well-known close relationship with Loony Larry.

All this brings me back to Ted Jackson's comment about Fletcher early this year, which seems more true today than ever:

"Ernie Fletcher is the David Koresh of Kentucky Republican politics ... He's boarded the windows and locked the doors and said, 'Take it from us, we'll burn it to the ground.'"

It sure does appear that Fletcher is ready to help bring-down any Republican that failed to help him cover-up his law-breaking and save his political career, and burn down what remains of the Republican Party of Kentucky.

As a Democrat, I couldn't be happier for such fratricide, but even I have a tiny bit of sympathy (just a little) for the talented Kentucky Republicans who worked so hard up to 2003 to create a robust political machine and elect their first governor in 32 years, only to watch one moron, and his incompetent posse, tear down in a few years what took a few decades to fully build. The national climate only added to the disaster, just as the collapsed levees destroyed what the hurricane winds didn't.

Of course, it won't take Kentucky Republicans that long to rebuild, but they'll have to do so without the Governor's Mansion, without their prized 3rd Congressional District seat, with an enormous expansion of the Democratic majority in the state House, with a realistic possibility of losing their state Senate majority, with the possibility that their rising star (Trey Grayson) could lose his seat, with a public that has soured on countless Republican issues, and now with the possibility that Fletcher and his fanatical cronies may try to destroy McConnell's re-election hopes, if he didn't have enough to worry about already.

It's safe to say these are dog days for Kentucky Republicans. The political pendulum sure does wing back and forth, doesn't it?

UPDATE (11:13 AM): No sooner than posting the above did I receive an e-mail from another Republican insider on a related issue concerning this post from yesterday:

Mark,

I don't know if it was your post regarding Northup yesterday that sparked it or, as one of your posters said, the campaign was already in the works . . . but last night I received a phone call from a Republican higher up the party food chain than I.

The caller, knowing I am not a Fletcher fan, was wanting to talk about where we as a party go after his defeat.  Specifically, he was tossing out a few names as potential state party chairs.  He mentioned three names:  Anne Northup, Steve Pence and Jeff Hoover.

As I told him, I think that Pence might be too controversial.  I know many people that were not strong Fletcher people that still didn't like him because they felt he abandoned his duties as Lt. Governor.  I disagree with that but, oh well.  The concept of either Northup or Hoover as party chair was pretty interesting though.

The most interesting part of the call is the fact that the caller's loyalties do not lie with Northup, Hoover or Pence, but with another interested elected official.

Just thought you would be interested in knowing that this rumor may have some legs.

Was Northup Prophetic?

Recall this February comment by former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R):

"The current governor has no chance of winning re-election," Northup said. "There's more to lose ... for people who will be down the ticket, like Trey Grayson."

I raise it because I'm told the latest internal polling received in the past 24 hours has Grayson leading Bruce Hendrickson (D) within the margin of error with about one-third still undecided, and this was after he was on television for a week. Since the last poll, Grayson has gained just one point. Clearly, there appears to be just one competitive race with just 12 days to go.

Republicans may rue the day they ignored Northup's warning.

Republican Source: Governor Fletcher (R) Threw In The Towel This Week

In a discussion last night with a prominent Republican insider, I was told that Governor Fletcher's (R) decision to switch gears with his media (again), and offer a straight positive on his so-called "accomplishments," was an early concession of this race, and an acknowledgment that nothing he's done since the May primary has been able to appreciably close the massive double-digit lead that Steve Beshear (D) has enjoyed.

Fletcher is now on television with just one ad while Beshear is able to triple-track his media, when you factor-in the devastating ads that Bluegrass Freedom Fund have been running against Fletcher on ethics. You can't close a double-digit gap by going positive when your opponents are hitting you over the head.

The source noted that none of the attacks on Beshear -- expanded-gaming, Ten Commandments, guns, gays, Kentucky Central and immigration -- have caused the needle to move in any significant way as to alter the dynamics of the race, and Fletcher has never been able to get the bulk of the Northup primary supporters back on board. While Senator McConnell (R) has gone through the motions and stood with Fletcher on several occasions, this is believed to be more about solidifying Republican support for his own re-election than out of any affection or desire to help Fletcher.

I was also reminded that Fletcher's chronic re-election problems were compounded by two more recent events -- the Republican Governors Association's decision to leave the state after spending several weeks on television hammering Beshear, and the clear drying-up of Fletcher's fundraising prospects. It was noted that Fletcher would have reported barely $500,000 in the bank if not for the $600,000 transfer of cash from the Kentucky Republican Party to his campaign on very last day of the reporting period. Apparently, Fletcher's own wealthy running mate, Robbie Rudolph (R), hasn't even made a $1,000 contribution to their campaign, despite personally contributing to other Republican statewide candidates.

Ultimately, I'm told, Fletcher's decision to go positive is an effort to avert a humiliating 20-point loss, but there is fear it may be too late to even keep that from happening. Fletcher will continue to campaign aggressively in the free media and hope for a miracle, but he (and Glenna) have finally come to terms that they aren't going to win and believe, ironically, the voters long-ago decided to vote for change and have never shown any inkling of giving him a second-look, just as they did in 2003 when they elected Fletcher out of a strong desire for change.

(By the way, that noise you hear is Anne Northup saying "I told you so.")

One last thing: when I asked whether Fletcher's positive media was an effort to at least prevent Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) from losing, I was told that Fletcher couldn't care less about Grayson's re-election hopes and that played no role whatsoever. Apparently, Fletcher has no love for either Grayson or Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer (R) -- ironically the only Republicans getting any real support from the voters beyond their hard core base.

Republicans Continue To Shun Fletcher

It's pretty remarkable how a growing number of prominent Republicans are shunning Governor Fletcher's (R) re-election campaign by either defecting to Steve Beshear (D) or simply refuse to contribute to Fletcher.

Courier-Journal:

Ex-GOP State Lawmakers Say They'll Vote For Beshear
Lile, Casebier cite negative campaign
By Joseph Gerth, The Courier-Journal

Saying they are tired of the "phony issues" that Gov. Ernie Fletcher has raised during his re-election campaign, two longtime Republican officeholders from Louisville endorsed Democrat Steve Beshear yesterday.

The two are former state Sen. Lindy Casebier, who quit last week as Fletcher's executive director of the Office of Arts & Cultural Heritage, and former state Rep. Bill Lile, who retired earlier this year as co-director of the Jefferson County Board of Elections.

[...]

"I was outraged when the governor signed an agreement admitting his role in the merit system scandal and then proceeded to go out and describe everything as a political witch hunt," Lile said. "But this campaign has been the clincher. … Campaigns should be positive -- accomplishments, if any, should be emphasized. Phony issues should not be used to tear down your opponent.

"As a retired public school teacher, I would have to give the Fletcher administration an 'F' in this category."

AP via Pat Crowley:

Fletcher's (campaign finance) report showed that some key GOP leaders, including state GOP Chairman Steve Robertson, hadn't contributed money to his general election campaign. None of Kentucky's four Republican congressmen - Hal Rogers, Ed Whitfield, Ron Lewis and Geoff Davis - were listed as donors on Fletcher's report, nor state Senate President David Williams.

And let's not forget the shunning Fletcher is getting from Lt. Governor Pence (R) and Anne Northup (R).

This is only going to continue as we get closer to Election Day.

UPDATE (10:54 AM): Even more damning for Fletcher:

Fletcher has received donations from less than 10 percent of backers of his chief GOP opponent from the spring, a Herald-Leader analysis shows.

Bluegrass Freedom Uses Anne Northup (R) In New Ad On Governor Fletcher's (R) Ethics

Bluegrass Freedom Fund has just released a new spot, this time using Anne Northup's (R) own words about Governor Fletcher's (R) ethics.

Thank you, Anne, for speaking the truth this year.

This Is Too Good To Be True

Just when you think Governor Fletcher (R) can't make any worse tactical mistakes in this campaign, you find out that you're wrong. These guys are going to re-write the manual on how not to run a re-election campaign.

According to the press release his hemorrhaging campaign put out this afternoon, it seems that Fletcher now wants to make this race about ethics. Seriously. I kid you not. Our corrupt governor -- the man with no ethics -- now wants this race to be decided on which candidate is more ethical. Good Lord.

It's simply amazing what being down 18 points with 54 days to go will do to a campaign's ability to make sensible strategic decisions. Ironically, Fletcher now resembles the gambler at the racetrack who's down $5,000 heading into the last race and tries to win it back by betting on the long-shot. In politics, like horse racing, those bets are long-shots for a reason.

Now might be time simply to trot out what Fletcher's fellow Republicans -- like Steve Pence, Anne Northup, Ted Jackson, Jack Richardson, and John David Dyche -- have said about him and ethics and competence-related issues.

I think this is my favorite:

"Ernie Fletcher is the David Koresh of Kentucky Republican politics," Jackson said. "He's boarded the windows and locked the doors and said, 'Take it from us, we'll burn it to the ground.'"

But this one is really good too:

“The joke in the Republican Party is that if you gave him a choice of A, B or C, with C being the worst choice, he’d choose C every time,” Richardson said.

And this one too:

"But the facts are what they are. The fact is the pardons happened. The fact is he did take the Fifth (Amendment before a grand jury). The fact is he was indicted. The fact is he does have a legal defense fund. The fact is he said we were going to get to the unvarnished truth, but we didn't."

I like this one a lot too:

"Getting by is not good enough if the Governor really wants a second term. Fletcher must convince the people that he is not corrupt, has proposals that will improve their lives, and is savvy and powerful enough to get them passed. Yet his team is now reduced to raw rookies and demoralized survivors and will soon face simultaneous combat on two fronts -- court and legislature."

No, wait...this is easily the best of all. Do yourself a favor and spend the 2 minutes, 43 seconds needed to listen to this excellent summation of the catastrophe of the Fletcher Administration.

Fletcher Scandal Haunts Campaign (Alford, AP)

If you listen closely you can faintly hear former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R) telling Republicans "I told you so"...

Fletcher Scandal Haunts Campaign
By Roger Alford, Associated Press

FRANKFORT - A political scandal that plagued Gov. Ernie Fletcher for the past two years continues to haunt him in his bid for re-election.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Steve Beshear blasted Fletcher on Wednesday, charging that the first Republican governor in more than 30 years broke his promise to "clean up the mess" in Frankfort.

"Ernie Fletcher promised to clean up Frankfort and put an end to waste, fraud and abuse," Beshear said in one of his harshest campaign speeches yet, delivered in the Capitol. "Yet from almost day one, the governor and his administration have been plagued by allegations of scandal and corruption."

Fletcher countered during an appearance later in Louisville that he has been the target of a "political witch hunt." Fletcher said Beshear is raising the issue because he couldn't attack him on matters that are most important to Kentuckians.

Timing Is Everything, Isn't It?

You're gonna love this.

If you visit Governor Fletcher's (R) official website and go to the "Multimedia" page, you'll come across a section called "Official Events."  That's the section where Fletcher lists video, sound and pictures to his many travels across the state. The Official Events section is listed over two pages and goes back to February 2006.

If you start with Page 2, you'll notice Fletcher made a total of three check presentations: one on May 25, 2006, again on July 10, 2006, and another on November 22, 2006.

There's not another check presentation until March 9, 2007.

But beginning with the March 9 check presentation, the check presentation events exploded. Here are the "check presentations" listed on Fletcher's website thereafter:

March 9
March 22
March 28
March 29
March 31
April 10
April 12
April 12
April 12
April 17
April 17
April 20
April 24
April 25
April 28
April 28
May 3
May 18
May 27
May 27
May 27
Jun 29
Jul 19
Jul 19

So, what caused Fletcher to do only three check presentations in a year and then scramble -- beginning March 9th -- to 17 of them in the next two months in a non-budget year?

Well, coincidentally, on March 6 (3 days before the first of this string of presentations), Survey USA released the results of its first poll in Republican gubernatorial primary. It showed Fletcher's re-election hopes in dire trouble: Fletcher 33%, Northup 31%, Harper 13%.

Hmmm. Probably just a coincidence, right? I mean, Fletcher wouldn't turn to the taxpayers to effectively fund his primary campaign that was in a dead heat at the time, would he?

No, that would be unethical and borderline illegal...

But here's a collage for your enjoyment...

The Shameless Hypocrisy Of The GOP On Casinos...Isn't It Time For The Kentucky Media To Take A Critical Look?

Okay, let's get down to business and start peeling the rotten onion that Governor Fletcher (R) is trying to pass-off as his campaign platform.

This is pretty pathetic. As I said in my earlier post, an incumbent governor nearly four years into his failed term doesn't get to campaign on platitudes and his latest vision rooted firmly into yet another painful flip-flop. No, an incumbent governor has to run on his record. Fletcher would rather run from it and instead is trying to deceive the public on issues where he had a rather sudden (and shameless) metamorphosis just a few months ago: domestic partner benefits and gambling.

Let's leave the domestic partner flip-flop for another time. Instead, let's talk about gaming for a minute, and hope that the media in Kentucky consider asking Fletcher & Crooks to explain the disturbingly hypocritical facts behind their latest dishonest propaganda.

One of the latest babbling talking points coming from Fletcher, his Mini-Me (Robbie Rudolph) and the man hoping to be the state's first theocratic attorney general (Stan Lee) is that somehow Democrats are in the pockets of gaming industry. According to Fletcher:

Fletcher claimed Beshear, a Lexington attorney and former lieutenant governor, "would buy his way to get casinos in the state."

Asked after his speech what he meant by that, Fletcher said, "He will bring in a bunch of casino money.

"He has said he has to get it passed ... He will have the resources from Vegas to get it done."

Then lunatic Lee blasted Jack Conway (D) for taking a contribution from Harrah's in 2002:

Even though Harrah's Entertainment Inc, a Las Vegas, Nevada based corporation that owns Caesars Indiana, gave $1,000 to Jack Conway's 2002 Congressional campaign, I am now calling on him to do the right thing, and stand with me in opposition to Steve Beshear and his misguided plan to make Kentucky the next Nevada."

Tisk, tisk. So much for the 9th commandment about bearing false witness.

First, let's take a look at who else Harrah's has contributed money to in the past few years:

HARRAH'S ENTERTAINMENT IMPACTS PUBLIC POLICY

• Republican Party of Kentucky -- $2,500 (2006)
• Kentucky Republican State Senate Caucus -- $2,500 (2006)
• Rogers for Congress -- $1,000 (2006)
• Bluegrass Committee (McConnell) -- $1,000 (2004)
• Fletcher/Pence Inaugural Committee -- $5,000 (2004)
• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $5,000 (2004)
• Bunning for Senate -- $2,000 (2004)
• Whitfield for Congress -- $1,000 (2000)
• Northup for Congress -- $1,000 (2000)
• Whitfield for Congress -- $5,000 (1998)
• Northup for Congress -- $7,500 (1998)
• Bunning for Senate -- $7,000 (1998)

Got that? Harrah's may have given Conway $1,000 in 2002, but they gave Kentucky Republicans -- including Fletcher's own inaugural committee -- more than $40,000, much of it a lot more recently than 2002. (Note -- the Harrah's link above only lists federal contributions. Click here and here for the state contributions to RPK, Fletcher, and the KYGOP Senate Caucus).

Also, maybe someone should ask the RPK about its June 2005 expenditures for a trip Las Vegas (when they stayed at Wynn Las Vegas Resort), right at the same time the RPK and the Republican Senate Caucus scored $5,000 from Harrah's. Isn't that worth asking, seeing that Fletcher and Lee think casino contributions are so important. Who went to Vegas at RPK expense?

And that's just Harrah's. See below for the rest of the big gaming PACs (and I deliberately left-off Churchill Downs, to be generous to the GOP). The gaming PACs just love those Kentucky Republicans...

Also, aside from the tens of thousands in casino cash that Fletcher, Pence, RPK, David Williams Senate Caucus, McConnell, Bunning, Northup, and Whitfield have taken over the years...let's not forget the lobbyists for the interests that want casinos in Kentucky and who are paid to lobby the legislative and executive branches of Kentucky government:

CHURCHILL DOWNS: Among its lobbyists are John McCarthy (former Republican Party chairman), Jeff Speaks (former top Hal Rogers staffer),  Amy Wickliffe (former Chief of Staff to First Lady Glenna Fletcher), and Jason Bentley (former director of Fletcher Energy Policy office);

TURFWAY PARK:  Its sole paid lobbyist is Ellen Williams (former Republican party chair and former director of Fletcher's GOLD office);

ELLIS PARK: Its sole paid lobbyist is Kelley Abell (former executive director of the Republican Party).

In each case, the primary mission of these race track lobbyists was expanded gaming. In fact, check out this old post about a fundraising that U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz) hosted last year for the Republican State Senate Caucus and all of their names show up on the host committee. How perfect.

Of course, none of this includes the massive amounts of money that Fletcher and his Republican hypocrites have taken from Kentucky's top casino backers such as Jerry Carroll, Bob Elliston, Bill Yung, Bill Butler. Apparently, they don't count.

And beyond the aggressive efforts of current Lt. Governor Steve Pence (R), who traveled the Commonwealth (before he dropped off the ticket) evangelizing how important casinos were to Kentucky, was this little morsel that is the cherry on top of this sundae. It comes from a September 1999 story in the Las Vegas Review-Journal about all the fundraising invites that the American Gaming Association (see their KY GOP contributions below) had received from members of Congress that week:

Las Vegas Review-Journal (NV)
September 27, 1999   
Edition: FINAL EDITION

Pols reach out and put touch on gaming association
Author: Dave Berns

It was an average wave of solicitation cards and faxes that were received at American Gaming Association headquarters this past week in Washington, D.C.

Everyone from Rep. Steve Largent, R-Okla., an outspoken conservative who is close with gambling opponent James Dobson, to House Majority Whip Tom DeLay, R-Texas, who has ties to Venetian boss Sheldon Adelson, sought political donations from the casino industry's national lobbying arm. There were 25 invites in all.

For example:

-Donors giving $ 500 to $ 2,000 apiece were invited to an afternoon of 'tennis and camaraderie' with Largent, a rising star on the Republican right.

'Proceeds benefit Leadership for America's Future PAC (LEADPAC), a leadership PAC chaired by Congressman Steve Largent,' read a single-page invite. 'Contributions can be federal hard, nonfederal soft or individual.'

-Rep. Floyd Spence, R-S.C., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, invited potential $ 500 donors to his annual South Carolina barbecue at the Capitol Hill Club.

If you're unable to attend just check the box reading, 'I'm sorry. I will be unable to attend but am enclosing my check in the amount of $ '

-Rep. Ernie Fletcher, R-Kent., sent invites for a $ 1,000-a-person golfing fund raiser at the Peninsula Golf Resort in Lancaster, Ky.

Prizes were to be presented for a hole-in-one contest, the longest drive, coming closest to the pin.

No mention was made as to whether any specialized legislation would be a part of the prize package.

According to his federal campaign reports, it seems that Congressman Fletcher never did get any of the gaming money he sought with his fundraising invitation. But bless his little heart for trying.

We can disagree with whether casinos are good or not for the state. That's a legitimate debate. But we don't need a lecture about casino contributions from such a pack of shameless hypocritical Republicans who plainly see that their days in office are numbered. There is so much more to the gaming hypocrisy (including interesting tidbits about the casino preferences of high-rolling blow-hards like Senate President David Williams (R)), but I'll save those for another time.

Meanwhile, enjoy the list of all the Kentucky Republicans who have happily bathed in casino contributions over the years...

AMERICAN GAMING ASSOC

• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $2,500 (2006)
• Bunning for Senate -- $1,000 (2004)
• Bluegrass Committee (McConnell) -- $1,000 (indiv contrib, VP Sales) (2004)
• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $1,000 (2004)

BOYD GAMING

• Bunning for Senate -- $1,000 (2004)
• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $1,000 (2004)

CAESAR'S ENTERTAINMENT

• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $5,000 (2004)
• Northup for Congress -- $2,000 (2004)

HARRAH'S ENTERTAINMENT IMPACTS PUBLIC POLICY

• Republican Party of Kentucky -- $2,500 (2006)
• Kentucky Republican State Senate Caucus -- $2,500 (2006)
• Rogers for Congress -- $1,000 (2006)
• Bluegrass Committee (McConnell) -- $1,000 (2004)
• Fletcher/Pence Inaugural Committee -- $5,000 (2004)
• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $5,000 (2004)
• Bunning for Senate -- $2,000 (2004)
• Whitfield for Congress -- $1,000 (2000)
• Northup for Congress -- $1,000 (2000)
• Whitfield for Congress -- $5,000 (1998)
• Northup for Congress -- $7,500 (1998)
• Bunning for Senate -- $7,000 (1998)

MANDALAY RESORT GROUP

• Bunning for Senate -- $2,000 (2006)
• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $500 (2004)

MGM MIRAGE

• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $2,500 (2006)
• Northup for Congress -- $2,500 (2006)
• Bluegrass Committee (McConnell) -- $3,500 (2004)
• Whitfield for Congress -- $1,000 (2004)
• Northup for Congress -- $5,000 (2004)
• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $5,000 (2004)
• Bunning for Senate -- $3,000 (2004)

STATION CASINOS

• Bluegrass Committee (McConnell) -- $1,000 (2004)
• Bunning for Senate -- $1,000 (2004)
• HALPAC (H. Rogers) -- $2,500 (2004)

TROPICANO RESORT & CASINO

• Bluegrass Committee (McConnell) -- $2,000 (2004)
• Bunning for Senate -- $1,000 (2004)

P.S. -- It's good to be back...

Republicans For Beshear

Joe Gerth has an interesting nugget in his Monday Courier-Journal column on the apparent creation of a Republicans for Beshear organization, something we've discussed here on several occasions:

A mysterious group (or person) calling itself republicans4beshear showed up a couple of weeks ago on local political blogs, soliciting Republicans to join its ranks.

But other than a quick introductory note -- asking "those GOPers interested, please contact republicans4beshear@yahoo.com" -- the group has remained low-key, if not inactive.

[...]

So the Notebook sent a message to the group, asking who was behind it.

"All in due time," was the response.

Again, as discussed last week, the critical problem for Governor Fletcher (R) is that he cannot afford any bleed-off of GOP support this support and have any hope of winning re-election. Since registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than a 3-to-2 margin, any loss of Republican support -- especially an organized efforts likely led by former supporters of Anne Northup (R) -- seem catastrophic.

Recall that even if Fletcher manages to get 90% of all GOP votes cast, and 50% of all independent and third-party voters, he will still need a staggering 168,000 Democrats to cross the political divide to vote for him (25% of all Dems). And if his GOP support drops to 80% in Jefferson County (Northup's base) and Fayette County (Beshear's base), that number quickly grows to an unimaginable 178,000.

So, for any Republicans interesting in being part of the effort to defeat Governor Fletcher (R) and elect former Lt. Governor Steve Beshear (D), just drop an e-mail to republicans4beshear@yahoo.com.

Edwin Edwards (D) v. David Duke (R), Redux?

As I'm sure you know, the latest Survey USA poll was released yesterday.

I wanted to vomit.

Not because the numbers for candidates I am rooting for were not as good as other recent surveys I've seen (though certainly that's part of it). Mainly I wanted to vomit out of a profound sadness that Kentucky primary voters are inclined to nominate (runoff notwithstanding) the two biggest pariahs to face each other in the fall (Ernie Fletcher and Bruce Lunsford), setting up a fall campaign that would be tantamount to the 1991 Louisiana Governor's race between the crook, Edwin Edwards (D), and the racist, David Duke (R).

That year, Louisiana voters were faced with such an unimaginable choice between two evils that bumper stickers on cars contained slogans such as "Vote for the Crook. It's Important," and "Vote for the Lizard, not the Wizard." It's amazing to me that the two candidates solidly opposed by the thoughtful core of each political party could possibly be leading with three weeks to go, albeit with percentages of just 29% and 46%, hardly indicators of strong support.

Though, I can't fathom being faced with such a situation this fall because 1) there's no chance that I would consider a vote for Bruce Lunsford in the fall regardless of who the Republican nominate (my party loyalty stops with him), and 2) there's no chance that I could ever cast a vote for someone so incompetent and dishonest as Fletcher, a man who is effectively Judas in Jesus clothing.

(Note: While I feel almost that way about Steve Henry (D), at least I believe, based on his demonstrated history, that Henry is a Democrat. A dishonest, pathological, unethical, manipulative, cheating, thieving Democrat...but a Democrat. Hence, I would vote for Henry over Fletcher...at least. Lunsford isn't a Democrat, he's a political opportunist. His political contributions, his support of Fletcher and other Kentucky Republicans, his long-time friendship with McConnell, his clear anti-union practices over the years, give us every reason to doubt that man has any core political beliefs (just like Fletcher), yet alone Democratic ones.)

So, if Survey USA is accurate, this will likely be the first election in my lifetime where the best choice is to exercise my right not to cast a vote for governor. There are plenty of excellent candidates running down-ballot that I am eager to support, but I will certainly skip the first race if I must choose between two pariahs. There is no "lesser" between the two that I've yet to discern.

So, yes, I was disappointed with Survey USA. While I have some serious qualms with some of its findings (like an unbelievably low 7% undecided among Democrats), I'm saddened more than anything.

As far as candidates go, they should always trust their own pollsters. You don't spend tens of thousands of dollars to do your own research and then throw it away when an independent poll contradicts it. If that was the case, John Yarmuth (D) would have closed-down his shop after the Bluegrass Poll showed him trailing Anne Northup (R) by six points with barely a week to go. Independent polls are very useful in that they help you see trends. They are powerful when they confirm what your poll tells you. But when they vastly depart from your own poll, you don't change course. You keep fighting. You stick to your campaign plan. And then you hope that your next poll doesn't mimic the independent poll. But there are still three weeks to go and we've not even reached Derby yet.

But if Survey USA is to believed, we ought to brush-up on our Edwards v. Duke history and see how Louisianans dealt with it. Ultimately, Edwards won that election but, not unexpectedly, was later convicted on 17 federal criminal counts including racketeering and extortion and is in federal prison until 2011. Meanwhile, David Duke, who also found himself in legal hot water, has most recently been seen in Tehran at a conference held by Iranian President Ahmadinejad questioning the Holocaust, where he told the delegation that gas chambers were not used to kill six million Jews. Louisiana voters were right on the money about these two characters.

God save the Commonwealth...

Lunsford And His Real Friends

Don't know whether this particular photo is the real deal (The Whistleblower published it today), but I'm certain there are many identical ones out there given the tens of thousands of dollars Bruce Lunsford (D) has donated (not to mention political support) that got each of them elected.

UPDATE (2:11 PM): LexLawyer questioned whether it's a genuine photo because Lunsford isn't that tall. Below is the Lunsford/Fletcher endorsement and love fest from 2003 and you'll see that they are the same height.

2006 Congressional Vote Ratings

National Journal just released the 2006 liberal-conservative vote ratings of each member of the U.S. House and Senate.

In Kentucky (2005 rating in italics):

Sen. McConnell (R): 84.3% conservative/15.7% liberal (84.8-15.2)
Sen. Bunning (R): 91.8% conservative/8.2% liberal (89.2-10.8)

Rep. Lewis (R): 87.3% conservative/12.7% liberal (91.2-8.8)
Rep. Whitfield (R): 80.2% conservative/19.8% liberal (73.0-27.0)
Rep. Rogers (R): 79.2% conservative/20.8% liberal (81.8-18.2)
Rep. Davis (R): 76.7% conservative/23/3% liberal (80.7-19.3)
Rep. Northup (R): 72.2% conservative/27.8% liberal (74.7-25.3)
Rep. Chandler (D): 40.7% conservative/59.3% liberal (42.3-57.7)

Noteworthy is that Bunning re-defines wing-nut ranking as the second most conservative Senator, trailing only Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) who scored a 92.5%. In contrast, Orrin Natch (R-UT) scored a 73%, and both Sam Brownback (R-KS) and Rick Santorum (R-PA) a 70.3%. McConnell was the 12th most conservative of his chamber.

On the House side, Chandler was more conservative than 178 members of his caucus and more liberal than just 23 of them. Notably, Chandler was more conservative than Jack Murtha (D-PA)(40%), Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN)(33.7%), and now Ohio Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH)(30.2%).

Finally, Whitfield turned hard wing-nut in 2006, going from 73% conservative in 2005 to 80%.

John Yarmuth (D) and "The Way Down South"

Bob Moser just published a very interesting assessment of whether Democrats can reclaim the South in the latest edition of The Nation.

In it, Moser highlights how U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) became the lone Southern congressional candidate the national Democrats didn't want to support (because his strategy and positions didn't fit their mold of the type of Democrat that could win in the South) but who went on to win his race.

The whole piece is a terrific read, but here's the portion concerning John's victory:

But Dean's approach--both in his campaign and with his new "fifty-state strategy" for the DNC--was hardly a hit with white national party leaders, who complained bitterly about the expense of hiring Democratic organizers, in the words of ex-Clinton adviser Paul Begala, to "wander around Utah and Mississippi and pick their nose." In the 2006 midterms, national Democratic campaign committees shunned the fifty-state approach and backed only a handful of Democrats in the South. The chosen Southerners fit the "Republican Lite" mold to a T: social conservatives who emphasized "fiscal responsibility" and steered clear of calling for troop withdrawals in Iraq. The ideal Southern campaign, agreed Begala and his ilk, was Harold Ford Jr.'s lavishly financed Senate bid in Tennessee. Aiming to "out-Republican" his opponent, Ford spent the campaign bashing "illegals," waving the flag, ridiculing the very notion of gay marriage and calling up a quote from the Bible to address every issue.

Ford's loss was widely chalked up to race-baiting attack ads run by the Republican National Committee. But his defeat--like those of all but one of the Democrats' chosen candidates in the South last year--can also be viewed as a lesson in the limitations of Clintonian compromise. So can the results from the border South state of Kentucky, where self-described "liberal" John Yarmuth--whose pleas for national funds fell on deaf ears--pulled off a startling upset in the state's 3rd Congressional District by running a campaign that was the antithesis of Ford's. "The mistake Democrats have made here over the years is that they never provided a sharp contrast," says Yarmuth, who bested five-term Republican incumbent Anne Northup. "I said from day one, 'Anne and I are 180 degrees apart. If she believes something, I don't.' I was that clear. I wanted the voters to have a real choice and see where they'd go." They went with the frank-talking, antiwar, labor-loving candidate his own party considered too "liberal" to win. Meanwhile, the two party-funded challengers in Kentucky, both staunch social conservatives aiming to join the Blue Dog Coalition in Congress, got their clocks cleaned. "There's a Beltway mentality that succumbs too much to conventional punditry," says Yarmuth. "The voters are way ahead of the Democrats and way ahead of Washington."

Say what you will about John's politics, but his refusal to smooth-over differences with Northup so as to not alienate some more conservative Democrats was an exceptionally smart, and ballsy, move. John offered the voters a very clear contrast and didn't try to sugar-coat his positions or embrace some aspects of the war in Iraq out of some fear that he would be perceived as anti-military.

Contrast that to the campaign of former U.S. Rep. Ken Lucas (D) who said the war was a mistake but refused to offer any meaningful difference on how to proceed with his opponent U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R). Lucas lost to Davis by eight points.

While I admit it's not fair to compare the voters of Yarmuth's swing district to those in Lucas' conservative district, I do think Lucas hurt himself by not offering a clear contrast on the war. I can't help but conclude that the 5% that the libertarian candidate (Brian Houillion) got in the 4th Congressional District was largely the result of the anti-war voters feeling like they had no real option. In contrast, the two third-party candidates in the 3rd Congressional District received a total of 1.2%, less than one-fourth of Houillion's support, in race where voters had a clear anti-war option among the major party candidates.

Anyway, I encourage you to read the whole piece.

Is GOP Ready To Knife Governor Fletcher (R) Once Again?

If there's one thing about Kentucky politics that has been predictable during the past year, it's been the perfectly executed knifing that Governor Fletcher (R) has received courtesy of his own party at the most inopportune times.

From the state executive committee's refusal to call for the resignation of its chairman, to its decision to seat a loyalist of Lt. Governor Pence (R) over Fletcher's choice of Larry Forgy, to Secretary of State Trey Grayson's (R) flirtation of a gubernatorial bid at Fancy Farm, it's always a perfectly timed and well-planned ambush.

I suspect we'll see more of the same tomorrow night in Louisville when 1,500 Kentucky Republicans gather for its Lincoln Day dinner.

From the Herald-Leader:

The three GOP candidates for governor will make their first major pitches to a record crowd of Kentucky Republicans at Saturday night's Lincoln Day dinner -- an event that could set the tone for each contender starting on the campaign trail to the May 22 primary election.

More than 1,500 Republicans, the most ever according to the Kentucky Republican Party, will attend the function at the Louisville International Convention Center. Many attendees are expected to prominently display their allegiance to one candidate or another with buttons and stickers.

"It will be tense" but no blood will be shed, said Larry Forgy, who faced Larry Hopkins at the 1991 Lincoln Day dinner during that year's GOP primary for governor.

[...]

Mitt Romney, the presidential candidate and former Massachusetts governor, will serve as keynote speaker.

Other prominent Kentucky GOP officials who will address the crowd, in addition to the gubernatorial candidates, include U.S. Sens. Mitch McConnell and Jim Bunning, U.S. Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers of Somerset, state Senate President David Williams and Republican National Committee Chairman Mike Duncan of Inez.

Anyone want to predict what will happen? Will Pence endorse Northup? Will Senator McConnell (R) offer more on the race? What will Senator Bunning (R) do? How about Senate President David Williams (R)?

I can't wait.

If there's anything breaking at the event, please feel free to e-mail me from your cell phone (mark -at- bluegrassreport.org) and I'd be happy to post it while the event is ongoing.

What It Means To Be A Bruce Lunsford Democrat

Amazing. This just popped up in the latest campaign finance report. I had missed it before.

Is this what Bruce Lunsford (D) meant when he said today that he's lived his life as a Democrat since his 2003 endorsement of Ernie Fletcher (R)?

This was a month before the 2006 election.

What a joke.

Jonathan Miller Asks The Same Questions We're Asking About Bruce Lunsford

UPDATE (8:11 pm): Hillbilly Report has the video from Miller's press conference.

Today, State Treasurer Jonathan Miller (D) held a press conference in Frankfort to ask the questions that we're all asking about the apparent run for governor by 2003 quitter, Bruce Lunsford, the patron of Republicans like Governor Fletcher (R), former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R), and Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R), not to mention the Republican Party of Kentucky.

I should have video this evening, but here's the release that the Miller-Maze has put out, asking that Lunsford be asked these questions tomorrow when he's expected to announce his candidacy:

Statement of Jonathan Miller on Possible Candidacy of Lunsford

As I said, when I announced my campaign for Governor, this election is about one thing, plain and simple: do you want change, or more of the same? I’ve talked to people from all 120 Kentucky counties, and their answer is resoundingly clear: they want real change, and they want it now.

Unfortunately, the Democratic primary is looking like what Yogi Berra once described as “déjà vu all over again.” While the calendar reads 2007; it is beginning to look a lot like 2003. And it has a whole lot of people very conc