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New Poll Shows McConnell's Vulnerability Waning?

Politico has the story of a new poll out, conducted by Voter/Consumer Research in which McConnell's approval rating appears to be back in the favorable range at a comfortable 61% rating.

That alone should be disappointing enough, but the poll also shows that the man who has been considered by many in the Kentucky blogosphere to be the best candidate to knock Mitch off might not be the voters' favorite:

Almost two-thirds of the electorate were unaware or had no impression of Lunsford; significantly fewer voters knew of Fischer and Horne. Fischer was widely recognized, but most voters seemed to have no opinion of him.

Is this bad news for the Horne campaign?  Who knows.  But it's bad news for McConnell if he has to start a year before his re-election running ads, completely unopposed and with no Democratic nominee picked to take him on.  As I mentioned in my previous post, it will take a united Democratic party to knock off the Grim Reaper.  Now let's get down to the business of knocking those approval ratings back down to where they belong, below 50% by exposing the real Mitch McConnell.

Lt. Col. Andrew Horne Reporting For Duty

While I realize John Y Brown III posted about this already this morning, I wanted to jump in and say how glad I am that we have a formal top-tier candidate -- Lt. Col. Andrew Horne (D) -- to take on President Bush's waterboy and the leader of the party that got us in the unimaginable debacle of the Iraq War -- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R).

While there is still another month or so before the filing deadline, I believe this is Horne's primary race to lose. I don't say that with any contempt for the other possible candidates who are considering a run, like Attorney General Stumbo (D) or even businessman Greg Fischer (D) -- but I believe Lt. Col. Horne matches-up well with McConnell, particularly on the most important issue of the day -- the war. While McConnell can lecture us about his bird's eye view of the situation in Iraq and then puts soldiers in his campaign ads, Horne is a real soldier who actually led Marine combat forces during this very war. And with one race under his belt (the 2006 Third Congressional District congressional primary), he will no doubt be a stronger, smarter, savvier opponent, as is usually the case with talented candidates the second time around.

Most here know that I supported current U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) last year against Horne. I supported John because I knew he would become the very rockstar congressman he now is. But once the primary was over, there were few stronger advocates for him than Andrew Horne, who campaigned his heart out to help John win the general election. My opposition to Horne was nothing more than my passionate support of Yarmuth. It was only after that November election that I got a chance to know Andrew on a personal level. He's a rock-solid person, has a remarkable story to tell -- and has been doing so this past year on behalf of VoteVets.org -- and Kentucky would be well-served with Lt. Col. Horne reporting for duty in the United States Senate on its behalf.

So, I'm very happy Lt. Col. Horne has volunteered to serve us once again and I look forward to a spirited primary campaign and a general election ass-kicking of the highest order of the man who has offered us these incomprehensible bits of wisdom:

• “I’ve never met a finer man than our governor, Ernie Fletcher,” said McConnell. “I’m proud of Ernie Fletcher. I’m proud of Glenna Fletcher. And I’m proud of the image they present for our state.” (link)

• Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell of Kentucky called Bush "one of the great presidents in the history of the United States." (link)

• Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said the war in Iraq has been an "extremely successful undertaking." (link)

• Senator Mitch McConnell called Rumsfeld “a spectacular secretary of defense, one of the best in American history." (link)

Don't you think Kentucky deserves someone with better judgment to serve them in the U.S. Senate?

Me too.

http://andrewhorne.org/

National Dems Lobbying Mongiardo To Challenge McConnell

A rock-solid source tell me that national Democrats are making a strong push to get Lt. Gov.-elect Daniel Mongiardo (D) to consider challenging U.S. Sen. McConnell (R) for his seat next year in light of Auditor Crit Luallen's (D) announcement today that she will not run. Recall that Mongiardo nearly defeated U.S. Sen. Bunning (R) in 2004, losing by 1.4 percent in a year that was clearly the high-water mark for Republicans in a very long time.

I have no reason to believe that Mongiardo is considering it, but I know the recruiting effort is underway.

Keep a close eye...

P.S. - In case you didn't hear about it, allow me to inform you of McConnell's latest insanity in his continued rationalization and cheerleading for the worst political/military mistake in American history -- the Iraq War -- an endeavor that he has called "an extremely successful undertaking":

"Nobody is happy about losing lives but remember these are not draftees, these are full-time professional soldiers."

According to this incredible logic, we shouldn't shed a tear either for those NYPD or NYFD fatalities as a result of 9/11. I mean, they were full-time professionals so they should have known something like that could happen, especially in New York City.

It's amazing how the chickenhawks like McConnell expect others to die for their blunders and then belittle them like this.

UPDATE (5:17 PM): A must read.

Crit's Out, Fischer's In?

In follow-up to this morning's post about Auditor Crit Luallen's (D) decision not to challenge U.S. Sen. McConnell (R), there are signs already this afternoon that Louisville businessman Greg Fischer (D) is seriously considering a run. Sources close to Fischer tell me that he's lining up the support to run and will make a formal announcement of his decision "very soon."

Recall last month's Washington Post ranking by Chris Cillizza -- which listed McConnell as among the 10 most vulnerable incumbents -- which listed Fischer among those to consider in a primary race without Crit:

If Luallen decides against the race, Democrats will have to turn to a second-tier of candidates, including including state Attorney General Greg Stumbo, 2006 congressional candidate Andrew Horne and wealthy businessman Greg Fischer.

If Fischer gets in, he's no doubt the least known among the three most-rumored Democratic candidates (along with Attorney General Greg Stumbo and Lt. Col. Andrew Horne) and the question will be whether he has the resources (or can raise them) to make himself known in the next six months. I don't get the sense that he's able to full self-finance, but could kick-start a run with his own money. In contrast, there's no doubt Stumbo can do so, and I also believe that Horne will have all the resources he'll need for a top-shelf primary campaign. But you can't rule-out Fischer.

Here's how Fischer's bio reads:

Greg is chairman and founder of Iceberg Ventures, an investment firm, and CEO of the Dant Clayton Corporation. Greg is a co-founder and former president of SerVend International, a global manufacturing company with 300 employees. Greg is a US patent holder and was selected as one of Inc. magazine’s 1990 Entrepreneurs of the Year. In 2000, Greg co-founded bCatalyst, a mergers and acquisition advisory firm. His current board duties include MedVenture Technology, the University of Louisville Board of Overseers, the Louisville Science Center (past chair), bCatalyst (chair) and Vogt Ice. Greg is married to Alexandra Gerassimides, a pediatric pathologist. They reside in the Louisville area with their four children. Greg’s father, George Fischer, served as secretary of the executive cabinet during Gov. John Y. Brown's administration. He was also chairman of the board at University of Louisville.

As I said earlier, my small wager is on Horne. But if this field grows to four, or even five, serious candidates (meaning candidates who will have the resources to mount a paid-media campaign), the more I believe the race will favor Stumbo who has near 100% name ID among primary voting Democrats, has a strong base of support in Eastern Kentucky, and will be flush with cash -- for the primary.

Crit's Out, Horne In?

Not surprisingly, Auditor Crit Luallen (D) has released the following statement announcing that she will not challenge U.S. Senator McConnell (R) next year:

"While I have been honored that so many respected state and national leaders have encouraged me to consider running for the United States Senate in 2008, I have no plans to enter the race.  I have just been reelected as State Auditor and look forward to continuing to serve the citizens of Kentucky in that capacity.  The polls show that Mitch McConnell is certainly vulnerable and Kentuckians are ready for a change.  I am confident that Democrats will field a strong candidate next year."

While there are several others who are likely to jump into the race now that Crit is out, I'd say Lt. Col. Andrew Horne (D) benefits the most from her withdrawal and likely to attract the lion's share of her core supporters.

Horne had made clear that he would have supported Crit's candidacy, but now I suspect he'll jump into the race and I think he's the strongest general election candidate among those being rumored, though getting past Attorney General Greg Stumbo (D) -- if Stumbo really runs (I can't tell if he's bluffing) -- will be no simple task since Stumbo is a statewide figure (albeit controversial) while Horne is not well-known outside the Louisville media market. Businessman Greg Fischer (D) is also looking at the race and I wouldn't be surprised if Bruce Lunsford (D) re-appears in mix (particularly if Stumbo doesn't run).

At this point, I'd put a modest wager on Lt. Col. Andrew Horne (D) being the Democratic nominee to face McConnell next fall, and while some will argue that he'll never raise enough money to be competitive against McConnell, they need only look at U.S. Sen. James Webb (D-VA) or U.S. Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), both of whom were not especially well-known figures in their state last year, won tough primary fights, and then defeated top tier, deep-pocket incumbents in red states despite starting the general election with little or no money.

Another SurveyUSA First -- Bunning More Popular Than McConnell In Kentucky

Turns out that U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell's (R) worst job approval rating in the 31 months of SurveyUSA tracking wasn't the only remarkable thing about yesterday's poll. Adding a cherry to this sundae -- and also for the first time in 31 months -- is the fact that U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning (R) is now more popular than McConnell in Kentucky:

Bunning -- 43% approve, 43% disapprove
McConnell -- 44% approve, 47% disapprove

McConnell's Problems

A quick look at the demographics in today's very bad SurveyUSA poll of U.S. Sen. McConnell's (R) sliding job performance rating shows that the problems facing him are two-fold.

First, look at the consistent slide that McConnell has been experiencing with Democrats this year:

Then notice how he's been losing support among Republicans in the past few months as well:

This is a nightmare problem for McConnell. Democrats are beginning to loathe him and Republicans don't love him like they should.

And keep in mind that McConnell still has a long way to fall with Kentucky Democrats who gave both President Bush (R) and Governor Fletcher (R) just an 18 percent approval in this same poll. Seems that McConnell is about midway down that hill, dropping 15 points among Dems since January (from 47 to 32). That suggests he may have as much as another 15 points to drop among Dems -- the majority party in Kentucky.

Very, very bad news for Mitch.