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Wednesday, January 09, 2008

I'm Back...

Folks, I'm so sorry for my continued absences of late. On Monday, I'll have a formal announcement about the new national project I'll be working on (and have been for the past month) and am so very excited to share it with all of you.

In the meantime, I wanted to offer-up my quick analysis of last night's wild New Hampshire primary and would love to hear your thoughts and analysis as well.

As someone who's been in politics for a while, last night's victory by Hillary Clinton (D) in the New Hampshire Primary was simply astounding. Sure, pollsters will miss the mark from time to time, but nothing like this, though I suspect the polling was actually accurate because polls are simply a snapshot in time and things can change very quickly in campaigns. Apparently, in New Hampshire, they changed in about 48 hours.

So, what did happen? Who really knows. My suspicion is that a combination of things occurred.

First, I think the over-the-top and pretty vicious piling-on that the media did to Clinton in the past few days evoked a backlash, particularly among women. Despite a withering assault, Clinton stay focused and didn't wilt, which is not a bad trait for someone wanting to be president. Also, her well-publicized emotional moment surely didn't hurt her (again, particularly among women) as it helped to humanize a candidate who often comes across as emotionless on the campaign trail (recall the big bump after Al kissed Tipper at the 2000 Democratic convention).

Secondly, since independent voters -- who strongly preferred Barack Obama (D) over Clinton -- are such a large component of each party's primary turnout, I have to wonder how many independents saw the same thing we did -- that Obama was pulling away in the polls while Mitt Romney (R) was making-up ground against John McCain (R) -- and a chunk of them decided very late to vote in the race they felt was more competitive, and backed McCain instead.

Thirdly, Obama's candidacy has always been a risky one to some degree in that they have placed a premium on getting younger voters, and first-time voters, to participate at a level we've not seen in a generation. Did those voters manage to turnout in Iowa because the race was so close (per the polls), it was the first election, and because they believed they were part of history, but those same voters didn't turnout in New Hampshire at the same level because they didn't feel the same sense of urgency?

Who knows? Certainly, a 10 to 15 point turnaround in 48 hours wasn't the result of any one thing. But it was a remarkable evening and has surely boosted Clinton in a way that no straight-up three point victory could have accomplished.

As a Democrat who has not hitched his wagon to any candidate (I actually like all four of the major candidates), I think allowing the process to go beyond two small states -- that are not representative of America in most measurements -- is a very good thing. Democrats deserve a lengthier opportunity to scrutinize the candidates before they head-off to the Super Bowl. There's a lot to like about Obama, but I want to see him tested. Recall he had no real Republican opponent when he cruised to the US Senate as whackjob Alan Keyes flew to Illinois to step into the void and challenge him, and got waxed.

So, I'm glad we'll get to see how Obama responds to the jolt he received when everyone was ready to coronate him yesterday afternoon. Meanwhile, we all watched Clinton get off the mat and claw her way to victory. I've never loved her but her performance over the past few days has certainly earned my respect.

Friday, January 04, 2008

The Iowans have spoken

I must admit that I was somewhat surprised by the results of last night's Iowa Caucuses.  If you haven't heard, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won.

But the bigger surprise was the fact that Sen. Clinton and Mitt Romney and their millions of dollars and manpower couldn't deliver victory for themselves in the Hawkeye State.  It would definitely seem that Iowans are looking to Sen. Obama as the agent of change for the Democrats.  Ditto Gov. Huckabee, to a lesser extent, for the Republicans.  I say "to a lesser extent" because it was obvious where all of the energy was during the celebratory speeches last night.  The atmosphere around Obama was electric.  Huckabee played to a somewhat quieter, smaller audience.

The media makes much of both men's abilities to speak plainly to the people.  That's what we've been looking for all these years, and finally there are at least a couple of candidates who will do it.  I'm no soothsayer, but I do think that the folks in Iowa might be on to something by selecting the two candidates who seem to be able to tell it like it is.  Of course, we'll have a better picture in the weeks ahead as more than half the country goes to the polls.

It's just a shame we here in Kentucky won't get our chance to weigh in until the process is well and truly over with.

Your thoughts?

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Edwards files in Kentucky

For what it is worth, Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards has formally filed his papers in Secretary Grayson's office, making him the first candidate of either Party to do so.  His papers were filed yesterday.

JN

PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
John 410 Market St., Ste. 400 Democrat http://www.johnedwards.com
- - - - - - Chapel Hill, NC 12/18/2007
- - - Edwards North Carolina No
- - - - - -

27516

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Will This Be The Year That Conventional Wisdom Doesn't Apply To The Presidential Race?

[Note: While I try to keep my writing on BGR focused on Kentucky politics, I wanted to begin posting some items of broader national interest, given that I'll be doing so for a soon-to-be-announced national project in the coming weeks.]

When it comes to the presidential primary races, Conventional Wisdom holds:

  1. Only three tickets "will be punched" for each party coming out of the January 3rd Iowa Caucus, meaning any candidate who fails to finish among the top three is toast;
                
  2. The nominations will be wrapped-up by "Super Tuesday" on February 5th when states that hold 55% of each party's delegates will have had elections;
             
  3. Rudy Giuliani's (R) decision to shift resources from Iowa and New Hampshire (where he's in third place in recent polls) to Florida (and other big states) is of questionable strategy.

This year, Convention Wisdom may prove to be wrong on all accounts. Here's why.

First -- money. Unlike previous years when candidates actually agreed to strict spending limits in exchange for partial federal funding of their campaigns, this cycle's candidates have raised never-before-seen sums of money. Usually, poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire were guarantees that fundraising resources would dry-up quicker than a sponge in a desert, making it all but impossible to mount effective campaigns in subsequent states. But as of the last reporting date (October 31), the top five candidates (Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Giuliani and Romney) had raised a staggering total of $270 million, insuring that regardless of the outcomes in Iowa and New Hampshire, most will still have ample cash reserves in the bank to continue their campaigns.

Second -- allocation of delegates. While it is true that states holding 55% of the overall convention delegates will have held their primary or caucus by February 5th (and each party's presidential nominee must receive a majority of the delegates in order to win their nomination), there are two complicating factors at play which reduce the impact of Super Tuesday and the early states.

All Democratic primaries -- and most Republican primaries -- allocate delegates proportional to each candidate's performance in the state. Democrats abolished the winner-take-all states after its riotous 1968 convention. Hence, if the current polling in early states hold-up, and Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards continue to be separated by 15-20 points from top to bottom, the outlook after the February 5th primaries will likely show a leader -- maybe even a clear leader -- but likely not one with a majority of the delegates.

Even more complicating is the fact that more than 20% of each state's delegates aren't awarded by way of an election, but are instead considered "superdelegates" which are typically allocated to elected officials and party leaders to cast as they wish at the convention. Hence, a five point lead by one candidate can be negated if another candidate is able to accumulate the lion's share of the "establishment" superdelegates -- not an unlikely scenario if Obama has a slight lead over Clinton.

Finally -- Republican "winner-take-all" states. While winner-take-all primaries have been abolished by Democrats, Republicans continue to allow 20 states to allocate their delegates in that fashion. Significantly, 13 of those 20 states take place on or before February 5th, including the big states of California, New York, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, and New Jersey. Those 13 states alone account for about 60% of the Republican delegates awarded through February 5th -- and Rudy Giuliani maintains significant leads in nearly all of the winner-take-all states, especially the six big states listed above.

Unlike the Democratic Party system, if Giuliani can maintain his lead in the big winner-take-all primary states, it is likely he would emerge with a strong majority of delegates on February 5th, even though it looks like he will do very poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire (neither of which are winner-take-all states) -- and that's not taking into account the superdelegates which account for 25% of the GOP overall delegate count, a group which Giuliani is expected to do well. And let's not forget that Giuliani's fundraising has been the second strongest among his party's candidates (Romney continues to lead his pack) and he'll have ample funds to continue his campaigning well past Iowa and New Hampshire, regardless of outcome.

Of course, an especially strong Iowa or New Hampshire by a lesser-known candidate -- like Mike Huckabee -- will no doubt boost his numbers across the board and might very well threaten Giuliani's current double-digit lead in places like Florida and allow another quickly rising candidate with momentum to steal some of these winner-take-all states. But right now, the big states love Giuliani and that's where his campaign is allocating the lion's share of its resources.

So, we should all be careful in simply accepting the Convention Wisdom for this year's presidential primary season. The massive amount of money being raised this year will insure that several candidates will have the funds to overcome a few early disappointing performances and live for another day.

(An excellent resource for the minutiae of the presidential primary process can be found at The Green Papers.)

Thursday, December 06, 2007

Giuliani's Problem With The Truth -- Live From Kentucky

Last week, The New York Times splashed its front-page with a story that highlighted Rudy Giuliani's (R) repeated exaggerations of his mayoral record during his current presidential campaign.

Here's an excerpt:

Discussing his crime-fighting success as mayor, Mr. Giuliani told a television interviewer that New York was “the only city in America that has reduced crime every single year since 1994.” In New Hampshire this week, he told a public forum that when he became mayor in 1994, New York “had been averaging like 1,800, 1,900 murders for almost 30 years.” When a recent Republican debate turned to the question of fiscal responsibility, he boasted that “under me, spending went down by 7 percent.”

All of these statements are incomplete, exaggerated or just plain wrong. And while, to be sure, all candidates use misleading statistics from time to time, Mr. Giuliani has made statistics a central part of his candidacy as he campaigns on his record.

I raise this because Jefferson Poole has just posted an excellent account of Giuliani's private fundraiser yesterday in Louisville which appears to further highlight Giuliani's very problem with the truth. Jefferson cites how the fundraiser's host threw out a few statistics of Giuliani's accomplishments as he introduced him (bullet-points which most likely were provided in advance by the Giuliani camp, which in my experience is standard practice for these sorts of events):

He also commended Giuliani for bringing the murders down in New York City so drastically, from about 3,000 a year to more like 500, a figure which could be matched by St. Louis, MO.

In that simple sentence, there are three gross misstatements (and I'm going to assume that Jefferson accurately reported what was said).

First, as Times alludes to in its story above, Giuliani seems to be grossly inflating the number of actual murders in New York City during his tenure. Despite the claim of the rate going "from about 3,000 a year to more like 500," in reality it dropped from 1,946 to 661 -- still an impressive drop -- and has continued to drop during Mayor Michael Bloomberg's (I) current tenure:

  • 1990: 2,245
  • 1991: 2,154
  • 1992: 1,995
  • 1993: 1,946
  • 1994: 1,561 (Giuliani sworn-in on January 1st)
  • 1995: 1,177
  • 1996: 983
  • 1997: 770
  • 1998: 633
  • 1999: 671
  • 2000: 673
  • 2001: 661
  • 2002: 588 (Bloomberg sworn-in on January 1st)
  • 2003: 597
  • 2004: 570
  • 2005: 539
  • 2006: 596

(Side note: While there's no doubt that murders fell considerably during Giuliani's tenure, it's also worth noting that the drop in NYC's murders largely paralleled a national drop. For example, murders fell nationally by 37 percent during the 1994 to 1999 timeframe (from 24,530 to 15,522), suggesting that the Clinton administration policies and a strong economy also played an important role in the decline that New York experienced.)

Finally, while St. Louis was named the second-most dangerous city in America for 2006, its total number of murders last year was 131, not anywhere close to the 500 that was suggested at the Giuliani event. Seems that Giuliani suffers from the same problem with the truth that Anne Northup (R) warned us had afflicted Governor Fletcher (R).

Given Giuliani's solid record on crime while mayor, you'd think he'd stick to the facts and not constantly embellish them.

Friday, November 16, 2007

Northup Endorses Giuliani

Last year, Kentucky Congressmen Ron Lewis (R), Ed Whitfield (R) and Hal Rogers (R) endorsed Mitt Romney (R) for president.

Today, former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R) broke ranks with her former colleagues and endorsed Rudy Giuliani (R), as well as agreeing to serve as his Kentucky state chair:

For Immediate Release
Contact: Elliott Bundy
Friday, November 16, 2007

Anne Northup Endorses Rudy Giuliani for President
Former Congresswoman to Serve as Kentucky State Chair

New York City – The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee today announced that former Kentucky Congresswoman Anne Northup has endorsed Mayor Giuliani for President. Northup will serve as Rudy’s Kentucky State Chair.

“Rudy’s experience as a leader proves that he is the only candidate truly committed to fiscal conservative principles,” said Northup, who represented Kentucky’s 3rd Congressional District from 1997 until 2007. “As President, he will also keep America on the offense in the Terrorists’ War on Us, one of the greatest challenges we face. I am proud to support Rudy for President.”

“Anne is a welcomed addition to our team,” said Michael DuHaime, Giuliani’s National Campaign Manager. “We look forward to working with her to grow Rudy’s support in the state and continue spreading the word about his commitment to lowering taxes, slashing wasteful Washington spending and keeping American families safe.”

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

THIS Is The Guy They Hope Will Be The Republicans' Messiah?

If this is what Republicans are offering as their savior, well, it may be a very long election for their party next year...again:

During a campaign stop in Iowa today, Fred Thompson unambiguously stood by the premise of the Iraq War — and went so far as to say Saddam Hussein "clearly" had weapons of mass destruction and a nuclear program that posed a threat.

"Saddam Hussein, today, had we not gone in, would be sitting on this power keg and be in control of the whole thing," Thompson said. "He would have been the new dictator of that entire region in my estimation. He is — was — a dangerous irrational man who, by this time, would have been well on his way to having the nuclear capability himself."

[...]

"We can't forget the fact that although at a particular point in time we never found any WMD down there, he clearly had had WMD," he said. "He clearly had had the beginnings of a nuclear program, and in my estimation his intent never did change."

Meanwhile, the whack-jobs for the religious right are threatening a third-party candidate if Rudy Giuliani (R) is the Republican presidential nominee.

Friday, September 28, 2007

Find Your Candidate

A couple readers have forwarded me this interesting link to a short test that will tell you which presidential candidate is most aligned with your views and opinions. Turns out I'm closest to John Edwards, though I'm still very undecided about which candidate to support. It's definitely worth checking out.

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Thoughts About Trey Grayson

I've been candid on this site about my mixed feeling towards Secretary of State Trey Grayson's (R) re-election hopes. While I genuinely like and respect Trey and think he's done a good job in his position, I have been concerned about advancing the political career of the man who I believe may very well be Steve Beshear's (D) 2011 opponent or the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010 if Senator Bunning (R) chooses not to seek another term.

I gave this a lot of thought over the past few weeks and finally found some clarity last night, so I wanted to share that for whatever it's worth.

First of all, I find the recent attacks on Trey by some Democrats to be very disappointing. There's plenty of legitimate criticism of Trey's handing of his job, but attempts to paint him as corrupt for having taken $150 from a Fletcher-indictee or having taken advantage of a man on his death bed is offensive to me. Those are the smears that we've come to expect from Governor Fletcher (R) and his crew, not from our side. Aside from them being untrue (in my opinion), I think -- more importantly -- they're counter-productive. Those attacks don't speak to any failures in his job, they don't highlight some hypocrisy in his public positions, nor are they evidence of criminality. In my opinion, they're not germane to the race and simply an attempt to smear a candidate in hopes of defeating him.

Not only is Trey undeserving of such smears, they're also unnecessary. This contest is a real race and internal polling completed last week -- that I've learned about first-hand -- shows Trey's lead to be at the margin of error and he's polling well-under 40%. Trey can be defeated legitimately, without resorting to such gutter tactics.

But this begs the question whether Trey deserves to be defeated, and this is what I've spent a lot of time thinking about since it's the only competitive race on the ballot. I'm convinced that Democrats do need to make a 110% effort to defeat Trey, and for reasons concerning his job, not the secondary issues like whether he'll defeat us down the road.

For me, the most difficult time of my political career were those 37 days spent in Florida during the 2000 presidential recount as one of Vice President Gore's campaign staffers, being one of the original 50 or so staffers that were flown from Nashville to Florida on the campaign plane in the early morning hours the day after the election. For the next five weeks, I split my time between Fort Myers and Miami. I'm not going to rehash the criticisms that I have of the recount itself. The history is what it is and there's no point in arguing it.

The reason that I raise Florida is the acknowledgment of the awesome power each state's top elections official holds when it comes to handling the outcomes of those razor-thin contested elections. In Florida, as we all know well, Katherine Harris (R) held that post, and during those 37 days there were numerous occasions when she was forced to make crucial decisions during the recount where the law was not particularly clear or where it provided her with some amount of discretion as to how to handle issues, or the time frames involved. Naturally, in each case, her choice was the one that most benefited the Bush team. If she was a Democrat, those calls would have gone the other way. I understand that. But there's no doubt in my mind that Katherine Harris -- by far -- had the most influence over the recount, and properly so.

This brings me back to Trey.

In the mid 1990s, Trey made a decision to leave the Democratic Party and join the Republicans. It was a real loss (and failure) for Democrats and a coup for Senator McConnell (R) and the rest of Kentucky Republicans. Trey took advantage of the shifting political winds and made the most of that move, and today he's a Secretary of State seeking re-election and it's hard not to believe he'll have a long political career ahead of him. Trey is also a McConnell protege, which is a good thing to be if you're a Kentucky Republican.

But this made me think about the fact that next year is not only presidential year, but it's one which is shaping-up to be a bruising re-election for McConnell, and one where Kentucky Democrats are likely to take a very serious run at the state Senate as well as a couple of Republican-held congressional seats. Keep in mind that not only was President Bush elected by that 500+ vote margin in Florida in 2000, but control of the U.S. Senate last year fell to Democrats thanks to Jon Tester's (D) 3,000 vote margin in Montana and Jim Webb's (D) 7,000 vote margin in Virginia (out of 2.3 million votes cast). That could very well happen again next year.

And that gets me to the meat of this question.

Who do I want as the state's top election official during next year's races? If McConnell's re-election (or even the presidential race) comes down to a few thousand votes, who do I want making the calls on election challenges or provisional ballots or when to certify a race or how to manage a recount at the top of the ticket? Is there any doubt that Trey -- like Katherine Harris -- will provide the Republican Party with an advantage at every possible turn within his legitimate power as Secretary of State? I have no doubt.

Keep in mind that Kentucky has already seen one example of how this during Trey's tenure: the attempt to seat Indiana resident Dana Seum Stephenson (R) as a Kentucky state senator -- until the Supreme Court ruled her ineligible. Thankfully, Democrats now hold that seat. But imagine if that was over McConnell's seat or, though unlikely, if the presidency hung in the balance. How would Democrats feel about that scenario?

And on another substantive note -- while I have no quarrels with Trey's job as Secretary of State -- and believe he executed his duties faithfully (Seum Stephenson notwithstanding) and has done a good job, I have to ask why has there been little or no progress on things like paper trails for electronic voting machines, early voting, easier registration requirements, or campaign finance reform, among other issues? These are relevant issues I raised a year ago (see here and here) about Trey's performance after four years in office. Why hasn't more been done?

Finally, there's the issue of Trey's opponent, Bruce Hendrickson (D).

I don't know Hendrickson and don't believe I've ever met him. I also didn't vote for him in the May primary. But a number of people whose opinions I trust and respect tell me Hendrickson is a thoughtful and competent person, a teacher, a former local official, and someone who would do an honest and ethical job as the state's top elections official. For me, that's all I need to know.

This has been a tough issue for me because I do have a great of respect for Trey, and while I am a committed Democrat, I don't believe all Republicans are evil. I think we (Democrats) do ourselves an injustice to shriek at every Republican all the time, not to mention lose a great deal of credibility when we do. Some Republicans are bad people, like Governor Fletcher. Others like Trey and House Minority Leader Jeff Hoover (R) are solid public servants and it's hard not to like and respect them. But it is impossible to separate Trey's political affiliation, or his close relationship with McConnell, from his job as the state's top elections official. You can't simply remove a thread from that quilt and ignore it. Trey made a decision to be a Republican and that has consequences today when things aren't so rosy for the GOP.

We head into the crucial 2008 elections as a country badly divided on many things and we've seen too many razor-close elections that have determined which party controls Congress, who sits in the Oval Office, and hence who gets to make those lifetime Supreme Court appointments. There is too much at stake for Democrats to give Trey a pass this year. Just remember Katherine Harris. Elections have consequences.

This is why I believe it is important for Democrats to do everything they can to help Bruce Hendrickson defeat Trey Grayson in November.

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Hillary Clinton Leads All Republicans Challengers In Kentucky

For the the demonizing that Kentucky Republicans like to do when it comes to U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), seems that the state's voters aren't so scared.

Here's the results from a Survey USA poll taken last week of Kentucky voters (7/16 results in parentheses):

Clinton 49% (44)
Giuliani 44% (47)

Clinton 51% (49)
Thompson 44% (45)

Clinton 53% (51)
Romney 41% (42)

Got that? Not only does Clinton lead all three major Republican opponents in Kentucky, but she has a seven point lead over Tennessean Fred Thompson (R), a southerner from a border state.

(Hat tip: Ditch Mitch)

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Election Survey Results

Sorry for the delay in publishing the results of last week's election survey. With so much going on in the news over the past few days, I didn't want these results to get buried in all the posts.

First of all, you can see (and filter) the actual results yourself by clicking here.

588 readers took the survey and the results are very interesting, particularly when you view the preferences of the 111 respondents (19%) who voted for Governor Fletcher (R) in the 2003 election or the 72 registered Republicans (12%).

Obviously, readers of BGR are overwhelmingly in the Democratic column, so the 90% to 7% margin for Steve Beshear (D) over Fletcher isn't surprisingly or particularly useful. Instead it's instructive how candidates or preferences rank relative to each other.

A couple of observations from the results.

Among Republican respondents only, Fletcher remains popular (70% fav/30% unfav). However, while this group overwhelming backed Fletcher in 2003 (83% to 13%) and President Bush in 2004 (88% to 11%), they give Beshear a 53% to 36% lead over Fletcher for the fall.

Here's how this group sees the fall races:

Republican Respondents
(GOV) Beshear (D) 53%, Fletcher (R) 36%
(AG) Lee (R) 42%, Conway (D) 40%
(AUD) Luallen (D) 43%, Greenwell (R) 42%
(SOS) Grayson (R) 88%, Hendrickson (D) 4%
(TREAS) Wheeler (R) 38%, Hollenbach (D) 31%
(AG) Farmer (R) 71%, Williams (D) 14%

The fact that there is real weakness for Fletcher, Lee, Greenwell and Wheeler among this group does not bode well for them in the fall. If less than half of educated, informed Republicans on BGR are not backing these candidates, it's hard to imagine how they hope to get enough cross-over Democrats to have a shot a statewide victory.

Demographically, 71% of Republican respondents identified themselves as either strongly right of center (22%), or somewhat right of center (49%), while 24% placed themselves in the middle. The group was 83% male and 57% were 39 years of age or younger, only 21% were 50 or over (Democratic respondents were the reverse with 31% under 40, and 46% over 50).

Among Democratic respondents, Fletcher is pretty much the anti-Christ, though 10% said they voted for him 2003 while 12% said they voted for Bush in 2004. While it's not surprising that Beshear dominates Fletcher among this group, again, you clearly see which Democratic candidates are showing real weakness:

Democratic Respondents
(GOV) Beshear (D) 96%, Fletcher (R) 3%
(AG) Conway (D) 95%, Lee (R) 2%
(AUD) Luallen (D) 94%, Greenwell (R) 3%
(SOS) Hendrickson (D) 54%, Grayson (R) 28%
(TREAS) Hollenbach (D) 88%, Wheeler 3%
(AG) Williams (D) 36%, Farmer 31% (R)

Given how rapidly partisan this group is, the fact that both Grayson and Farmer are getting more than a quarter of this group does not bode well for their opponents. Though, as the race progresses, will Trey be able to keep this group (and Democrats generally) from viewing him in a more partisan way? If they do, I suspect it will erode his Democratic support significantly. That would seem to be the best tactic for Hendrickson. He needs to make Trey a Republican and tie him to Fletcher at every turn. If he can do that, and Fletcher gets drubbed by Beshear (as the polls suggest), Trey could be vulnerable. But if Trey is able to remain quasi-independent, it's hard to see an upset.

Also noteworthy about this group, only 38% said that U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (D) should challenge Senator McConnell (R) next year (62% said no). Meanwhile, Andrew Horne (D) bests the group of possible McConnell opponents:

2008 Senate Challenger Preference (Democratic respondents only)
Andrew Horne -- 37%
Greg Stumbo -- 33%
Charlie Owen -- 19%
Bruce Lunsford -- 11%

Demographically, the Democratic respondents were strongly male (71%), 46% were 50 and older, 31% were 39 and under. Philosophically, 19% said they were strongly left of center, 41% somewhat left, and 32% in the middle.

Finally, here's each group's presidential preference:

Presidential Preference (Republican respondents)
F. Thompson -- 46%
Giuliani -- 17%
Romney -- 15%
McCain -- 10%
Huckabee -- 6%
Paul -- 4%
Hunter -- 1%
Undecided -- 1%
Brownback/Tancredo -- 0%

Presidential Preference (Democratic respondents)
Edwards -- 34%
Clinton -- 23%
Obama -- 18%
Richardson -- 9%
Undecided -- 9%
Biden -- 5%
Kucinich -- 1%
Dodd -- 1%
Gravel -- 0%

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Democratic Presidential Candidates Outraising Republicans By Nearly 4-to-1 Margin Among Kentucky Donors

I ran across 2008 presidential fundraising figures broken-down by state and found it pretty remarkable that the Democratic candidates are outraising Republicans from Kentucky donors by nearly a four to one margin: $823,810 versus $212,145.

2008 PRESIDENTIAL FUNDRAISING FROM KY DONORS (through June 30, 2007)

Candidate Raised (KY Donors)
Barack Obama (D) $318,013
Hillary Clinton (D) $287,250
John Edwards (D) $143,750
Mitt Romney (R) $116,550
Joe Biden (D) $43,950
Rudy Giuliani (R) $42,895
John McCain (R) $35,400
Bill Richardson (D) $17,000
Chris Dodd (D) $11,747
Ron Paul (R) $7,600
Sam Brownback (R) $5,250
Mike Huckabee (R) $2,250
Tom Tancredo (R) $1,950
Dennis Kucinich (D) $1,000
Mike Gravel (D) $700
Ralph Nader (I) $600
Tom Vilsack (D) $400
Duncan Hunter (R) $250
TOTAL RAISED $1,036,555
TO DEMS $823,810
TO GOP $212,145

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Richardson For President

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (D) just released these two humorous ads for his presidential campaign. Not only are they entertaining, but I think it does a great job of laying out his impressive experience in a subtle, yet effective, way. Curious what you think.

Richardson is the second tier candidate I'm hoping can breakout in the next six months. I love his experience and could really get excited about him as the Democratic nominee.

Friday, April 27, 2007

Democratic Presidential Debate

Thoughts on last night's first full Democratic presidential debate?

I'm not in anyone's camp at this point and am enjoying the chance to assess each candidate. I thought they were all pretty impressive last night. While there's not an enormous range of differences among them (Kucinich and Gravel notwithstanding), each has their own nuance and emphasis. I'm pleased with the options and could more than happily embrace any of the top six candidates (Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Richardson, Biden, and Dodd), though some more than others.

I'm curious how you'd rank the eight candidates as your personal preference to be the nominee. List only those you could happily embrace as nominee.

Here's my current, and ever-changing, preference:

  1. Edwards
  2. Richardson
  3. Obama
  4. Clinton
    (a big drop-off for me after Clinton)
  5. Biden
  6. Dodd

P.S. - My caveat to the above is that I'd be for Al Gore in a heartbeat if he chose to jump in late. Otherwise, I'm enjoying my unattached status.

UPDATE (5:19 PM): Check-out this interesting analysis of last night's debate.

Monday, April 02, 2007

I Thought The Surge Was Working?

I guess all that propaganda about the surge really working was just, well, more Bush Administration propaganda:

Iraq Death Toll Jumps 15 Percent In March

BAGHDAD (AFP) - At least 2,078 people died in Iraq last month, 15 percent more than in February despite a massive security crackdown in Baghdad, the epicentre of violence, a security official said on Sunday.

On average, 67 people died across the country every day in March, compared to 64 in February.

[...]

In March, 165 Iraqi policemen were killed against 131 the previous month, while 44 Iraqi soldiers died compared to 29 in February, the official said.

In March, 277 Iraqi policemen and 51 soldiers were wounded against 147 and 47, respectively during February.

The official said the death toll among militants had fallen to 481 in March compared to 586 killed the previous month.

Also, you probably read all the ridicule that U.S. Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) received last week when he asserted that things had gotten so much better of late that there were now neighborhoods in Iraq where Americans could safely walk the streets.

Well, looks like Senator McCain put that to the test this weekend during his own trip to Iraq and spent an hour walking the streets. Turns out he was indeed safe, probably no little thanks to this addition to his delegation:

...McCain's "stroll" today through a Baghdad market was guarded by 100 American soldiers, three Blackhawk helicopters, and two Apache gunships.

In his Dukakis-in-a-tank moment, McCain himself wore a bulletproof vest on his stroll.

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Not Trend-Setters, That's For Sure

Need an example of how out-of-touch some of our Kentucky Republican congressmen really are?

Well, recall that nearly two months ago, Reps. Ron Lewis (R), Hal Rogers (R) and Ed Whitfield (R) publicly endorsed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R) for president. At the time, most of the polls showed Romney with about 10% in the polls, narrowly behind former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R) for third place.

Yesterday, the latest USA Today/Gallup poll came out and Romney has fallen to 3%, tied with Sen. Sam Brownback (R) for fifth place. The poll was taken March 23-25 of 429 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide (Mar 2-4 results):

Giuliani 31 (44)
McCain 22 (20)
F. Thompson 12 (--)
Gingrich 8 (9)
Brownback 3 (1)
Romney 3 (8)

Not exactly trend-setters, are they?

Thursday, March 22, 2007

Elizabeth Edwards Has Recurrence Of Cancer, But Say "Campaign Goes On Strongly"

Very sad news. At the John and Elizabeth Edwards press conference held moments ago, they disclosed that Ms. Edwards has just learned of a recurrence of cancer that was first detected following the 2004 presidential campaign. They've discovered that her previous breast cancer has recurred, this time in a rib bone. However, both said they were "incredibly optimistic" about being able to treat it, even though they know this cancer is not "curable."

However, they said the "campaign goes on strongly," something that Mrs. Edwards clearly urged and she's ready to campaign as well even while undergoing treatment, though she acknowledged that medicine will cause her to be tired from time to time. Doctors have told her that campaigning should not impair her treatment.

It was pretty moving and handled well and it certainly puts a very human and personal voice on his candidacy and I sure hope her health improves. I'm undecided about who to support next year but have always thought highly of the Edwards. This only reinforced that sentiment.

UPDATE (12:53 pm): First reaction from Newsweek's Howard Fineman (during the MSNBC conversation moments after the press conference) was that the press conference was "remarkable" because it showed the Edwardses had guts, humanity, intelligence and understanding. They were able to use the way they handle their family circumstances to demonstrate the type of president he would be and it did it in a way that did not appeal to pity and it certainly did not look political in any way. The sense was that while it was gutsy to do this, it was, as Fineman said "a 10 strike." Chris Matthews thought the event had a "religious undertone" in the way they discussed the cancer recurrence and their resolve to tackle the problem but keep working and moving forward. He also called it an "amazing moment in American political history."

Fineman also offered (paraphrasing) "the way you handle personal challenges says a lot about the way you'd handle things as a leader."

I totally agree. I came away much more impressed with them as a couple and him as a candidate under such serious circumstances.

John Edwards Cancels Campaign Event, To Hold Press Conference With Wife Elizabeth At Noon

This can't be good news. You might recall that Elizabeth Edwards was diagnosed with breast cancer shortly after the end of the 2004 presidential campaign. She gone through extensive treatment since then. Then this happened yesterday:

John Edwards "called a news conference for Thursday to discuss the future of his campaign, a day after he and his wife, Elizabeth, visited Mrs. Edwards’s doctor to assess her recovery from a bout of breast cancer.

The campaign has not leaked any information about the presser and many are praying this doesn't spell bad news about Mrs. Edwards' health, first and foremost, and how that would affect Edwards' presidential campaign. Recall that Edwards' 16-year-old son Wade died in an accident in 1996.

When working on U.S. Senator Tim Johnson's (D-SD) 2002 re-elect, we knew that Tim's wife, Barb, was diagnosed with breast cancer during his 1996 run and they suspended the campaign for some period of time only to eventually resume at Barb's insistence.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Briscoe Finally Nails It

For all the grief I give the media for over-quoting Danny Briscoe on Democratic Party politics, he finally offered something that really hits the nail on the head.

Here's what he said about the Hillary Clinton presidential fundraiser that KDP Chairman Jerry Lundergan is hosting at his home next week:

Danny Briscoe, a Democratic consultant, said the event comes at a bad time for gubernatorial candidates in Kentucky — most of whom are scrambling to raise money for the May 22 primary.

Briscoe, who is not working for a gubernatorial candidate this year, said the timing is likely to help only one candidate — millionaire Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford, who is funding his own campaign.

Lundergan said he is not supporting a candidate in the primary, despite his friendship with Lunsford’s running mate, Attorney General Greg Stumbo.

“It’s a mistake on Jerry’s party,” Briscoe said. “He shouldn’t’ be raising money less than 50 days before the election, when the Democrats are all clearly struggling to raise money to win the primary.”

That too was my reaction as well.

Monday, February 26, 2007

Gore's Oscar Fuels Call for Late Run

Hopefully, this will get get louder and louder. I sure would love to see it:

Former Vice President Al Gore's triumph at the Oscars is already stoking activists’ pleas for him to make a dramatic late entry into the fractious presidential race, and some key strategists insist he could announce as late as September or October and still win the nomination.

“Honestly, this was the inaugural parade we all envisioned,” said Donna Brazile, his former campaign manager. “Gore's political stock is hot right now. I don’t know if I would cash in now with so many players still on stage. There’s no reason to force him to declare tomorrow. ”

[...]

“He could come in at the end of the day as a candidate who can truly unite his party as well as his country,” Brazile said. “He can help repair our country’s image abroad. He’s someone who can go toe-to-toe with world leaders and doesn’t need a crash course in diplomacy.” She remembers back in the ’80s when Gore was in Congress and used to often cite a quote from Gandhi, ““Be the change you want to see in the world.” Brazile said: “I believe he has become that quote.”

And we're going to see more of Gore in the coming months:

The former vice president will be in the spotlight again with three major events in the next five months:

--On March 21, he’ll star at global-warming hearings in both the House and Senate, testifying before a committee he once served on. He will be the sole witness before the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. On the House side, he will testify at a Joint Subcommittee Hearing on Climate Change, held by the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality, and the Science and Technology Subcommittee on Energy and Environment.

--A new book by Gore, "The Assault on Reason: How the Politics of Fear, Secrecy, and Blind Faith Subvert Wise Decision Making, Degrade Our Democracy, and Put Our Country and Our World in Peril," is due out in May.

--On July 7 (7.7.07), he will be among the luminaries heading a 24-hour “Save Our Selves” (SOS) concert marathon across all seven continents. The “Live Earth” concert will bring together more than 100 of the world’s top musical acts and is designed to reach more than 2 billion people through attendance and broadcasts.

And don't forget that Gore has been formally nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize (which is usually announced in October) and he has to be considered a strong contender. Imagine that:

"[Gore] has been nominated for the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize by Norwegian lawmakers who seek to recognize the former American vice president's wide-reaching efforts to alert the world to the dangers of global warming. "A prerequisite for winning the Nobel Peace Prize is making a difference, and Al Gore has made a difference," explains Boerge Brende, a conservative former minister of environment and then of trade who joined with Heidi Soerensen, a prominent leftist, to nominate Gore.

Sadly, the guy who lost the presidency has done a much better job of leading the free world than the guy who won. Be it climate change, his passionate defense of the Bill of Rights more than a year ago at Constitutional Hall, his opposition to the war in Iraq, and his speaking out against torture, Gore has led. He's not let polls and focus groups dictate what he said or when he said it. I hope the calls for him to run in 2008 get louder and that Gore heeds those pleas.

Saturday, February 03, 2007

Mitt Romney And "A Bunch of Queers"

Tonight, presidential candidate Mitt Romney (R) will keynote the Kentucky Republican Party's Lincoln Day dinner in Louisville where more than 1,500 are expected attend. In advance of the dinner, three Kentucky Republican congressmen have endorsed Romney's presidential bid: Ed Whitfield, Hal Rogers and Ron Lewis.

But it's funny how a politician's past comes back to bite them.

In 1994, Romney challenged U.S. Senator Edward Kennedy (D-MA), a champion of gay and lesbian causes. Then, Romney aggressively sought the endorsement of the Massachusetts Log Cabin Republicans, a gay/lesbian Republican grassroots organization. It's the same group that our homophobic State Senator Richard Roeding (R) called "a bunch of queers" last year.

Well, I just got my hands on Romney's letter to the group in 1994 seeking their endorsement and it's a doozy for a man fashioning himself as the conservative Republican candidate for president:

(click image for larger image)

Romneyletter Here are some highlights from Romney's letter:

"I am more convinced than ever before that as we seek to establish full equality for America's gay and lesbian citizens, I will provide more effective leadership than my opponent [Ted Kennedy]."

"For some voters it might be enough for me to simply match my opponent's [Ted Kennedy] record in this area. But I believe we can and must do better. If we are to achieve the goals we share, we must make equality for gays and lesbians a mainstream concern. I can and will."

"We have discussed a number of important issues such as the Federal Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA), which I have agreed to co-sponsor."

[on the military's 'don't ask, don't tell' policy]: "I am also convinced that it is the first of a number of steps that will ultimately lead to gays and lesbians being able to serve openly and honestly in our nation's military. That goal will only be reached when preventing discrimination against gays and lesbians is a mainstream concern, which is a goal we share."

Interesting stuff, isn't it?

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Ohioans Support Clinton, Edwards For President

As we all know well, Ohio has perhaps become the most important national bellwether when it comes to presidential politics. President Clinton (D) carried it in 1992 and 1996 while President Bush (R) carried it in 2000 and 2004.

Well, Quinnipiac University just surveyed 1,305 Ohio voters (496 Dems, 455 Reps) from January 23-28 (MOE +/- 2.7) on the 2008 presidential election and tested five hypothetical general election match-ups, with Democrats winning four of them.

Their findings:

  • Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) defeated her top three Republican challengers: 46-42 over Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), 46-43 over former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R), and 52-31 over former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney (R);
                   
  • Former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) defeated McCain 44-41;
                 
  • McCain defeated Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) by a 41-38 margin.

(Hat tip, Daily Kos)

Thursday, January 25, 2007

Early Money On The 2008 Presidential Race

Just took a peek at TradeSports.com to see how the real money is flowing on 2008 presidential futures contracts. Not surprisingly, Senator Hillary Clinton (D) and Senator John McCain (R) are prohibitive favorites to win their party's nomination:

Democratic Nominee (last trade on each contract, price = 0 to 100)

  • Clinton (47.4)
  • Obama (19.5)
  • Edwards (15.1)
  • Gore (7.6)
  • Richardson (2.7)
  • Biden (2.7)
  • Vilsack (1.4)
  • Clark (1.0)
  • Dodd (1.0)

Republican Nominee (last trade on each contract, price = 0 to 100)

  • McCain (42.2)
  • Romney (16.7)
  • Giuliani (16.3)
  • Huckabee (6.0)
  • Gingrich (5.2)
  • Hagel (4.1)
  • Brownback (3.7)
  • Rice (2.3)
  • Cheney (1.0)
  • Hunter (0.3)

But as far as who will WIN the 2008 presidency:

  • Clinton (D) (23.9)
  • McCain (R) (19.4)
  • Obama (D) (12.0)
  • Giuliani (R) (10.4)
  • Edwards (D) (10.0)
  • Romney (R) (9.0)
  • Gore (D) (5.0)

As to which political party will win the presidency, Democratic will cost 55.4, Republicans only 43.1. Also, Democrats are widely believed to keep control of the Senate (73.0 to 29.5) and House (70.0 to 30.0) in 2008.

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

More On The Leak Of Rudy Giuliani's Presidential Campaign Plan

Remember a few weeks ago when a New York newspaper published excerpts of Rudy Giuliani's (R) 140-page presidential campaign plan? Well, you can now see the actual document.

Interesting stuff.

Hat tip: Political Wire.

Friday, January 19, 2007

Sizing Up The Democratic Presidential Front-Runners

Markos over at Daily Kos offers his assessment of the top four Democratic presidential candidates and I think he's right on the mark. Here's the first paragraph of his assessment but you'll have to head over there to read them in their entirety:

Bill Richardson

I'm eager for a serious Latino candidate. It's time my people rose to the top of the political heap. He's bilingual. I dig his resume. Rather than talk about Darfur, he got his ass over there and brokered a cease fire, and that's on top of high-profile diplomatic missions all over the world, including places like North Korea. His resume is the strongest of any of the candidates. He had a strong reign at the top of the Democratic Governor's Association last year...

John Edwards

The sharpest voice in the race, he also has the best developed philosophical narrative for his run (the Two Americas). He is also shaping up as the most aggressive voice this cycle, not just targeting Republicans (the "McCain Doctrine"), but also in targeting meek Democrats who act as if there's little they could do to put the brakes on Bush's escalation. He proved in 2004 that he could run a smart race. He's already won a statewide campaign in a tough red state. He's good looking...

Barack Obama

The best orator in the field, he can craft gorgeous speeches. There is palpable excitement that Obama can't just make history, but he can radically change it. And given how desperate Republicans have been to break the color barrier (witness efforts to draft Rice and Powell), it'd be nice for us to get there first. Obama has proven he can win crowded Democratic primaries. The media loves him (in the same way they love McCain -- bordering on the irrational). He's got powerful friends like Oprah (and yes, that matters)...

Hillary Clinton

By all measures she's been a great Senator. She's got a great "story", and has taken more shit from the Right than any other Democrat in existence (besting husband Bill by a longshot). She's a tough one. And really, while Republicans may talk about swiftboating her, is there anything left for them to hurl at her? Unlike what some naysayers say, she can absolutely win the general election. And it's well past time for this country to join the 20th century, much less the current one, and start feeling more comfortable electing women to the top offices...

My early inclination continues to trend towards John Edwards (Edwards-Obama or Edwards-Richardson sounds good to me), but I'm looking forward to seeing how Obama does once under the klieg lights and how Clinton comes across on the national stage once she gets in.