BluegrassReport.org

Guess Who's Back?

Well, it took a lot longer than I expected or desired, but after a hiatus to figure out how to best keep BluegrassReport.org alive, I am pleased to announce that we will again be live, for good, come Monday morning.

After toying with a number of ideas of how to return BGR to the mix, while maintaining its style and quality, I think we've finally figured it out. Starting Monday, BGR will be managed and run on a day-to-day basis by someone familiar with -- and plugged into -- Kentucky politics and who will become the primary voice on the site, develop a relationship with all of you, and find his own style and voice. Though, you'll have to come back on Monday to find out who this is.

And to the chagrin of many, I'm back too, at least as a regular contributor on top of my work over at Political Base, as I discussed in a previous post this year. While I'm not up-to-date on the minutiae of what is happening in Frankfort or in the crucial local races, I do intend to weigh-in and comment on the federal races going on in the Commonwealth, as well as provide some insight on the national scene. And I'll be as bombastic as ever.

So, I'm very sorry it's taken six months to get BGR back on track. It has taken some time to get Political Base off the ground and doing well and then collaborate with folks in Kentucky to ensure BGR's survival. It's going to be a lot of fun to get back into the groove, and it sure seems like a lot has happened on the federal front since I last wrote.

In particular, I'm looking forward to:

• Figuring out how many more African-Americans that Rep. Geoff Davis (R) has called "boy" lately;
• Watching former Rep. Anne Northup (R) lose her third election in two years (even if I did help her win that second one...against that incompetent former governor);
• Discovering whether Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) has yet to live in a house in Kentucky that he owns;
• Learning more about how Rep. Ron Lewis (R) blatantly lied to the media about his re-election plans after I busted him for putting his house on the market last year, as David Boswell (D) takes back that House seat and puts it back in the blue column;
• Investigating how many more family members Rep. Hal Rogers (R) managed to get on the payroll of national security companies he helped get government contracts;
• Helping Bruce Lunsford (D) land Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) in the same unemployment line with Northup. (By the way, be sure to check out my '10 Questions With Bruce Lunsford' that I published last month).

So...it's going to be fun. I hope you'll add BGR back to your regular rotation, beginning Monday. We have lots of good stuff planned.

Miss you all, Mark

Time To Step-Up And Help KDP!

For those of us that railed for years about needing a true revitalization of the Kentucky Democratic Party -- we got it! The party is now led by some of our young superstars in Chair Jennifer Moore and Vice-Chair Nathan Smith.

But now we need to do what we can to help the new party thrive and provide them the resources it needs to even more effectively compete with the McConnell machine as we try to take back the U.S. Senate seat held by the man who continues to carry water for the disastrous Bush Administration, not to mention taking back the state Senate, and aggressively pursuing the competitive congressional races that present themselves.

We got what wished for. Jennifer and Nathan agreed to serve and have been unanimously elected. Now we need to help make it the success we know it can be, and we have a chance to do so on Monday night -- Inauguration Eve -- with the new KDP's first fundraising event called Put the Blue Back in the Bluegrass State (see ad on top right margin) to celebrate the inauguration of our new Democratic Governor, Steve Beshear.

Aside from great entertainment, come spend some time with soon-to-be Governor Beshear and Lt. Governor Mongiardo, Auditor Crit Luallen, Attorney General Jack Conway, Treasurer Todd Hollenbach, the House and Senate leadership, and our awesome former governors.

We all fought hard to help successfully put the party back on track, but that was only half of the battle. Now we need to support it and help it become what we imagine it can be. Tickets are only $100, so I really urge you to come to the event, or make a contribution even if you can't.

Quote Of The Day

U.S. Senator Bunning (R) restates the obvious:

"Brett Hall is a liar," Bunning said in a conference call with Kentucky political reporters.

Indeed, Hall is arguably pathological with his lies.

Aside from being an abysmal predictor of the political landscape, Hall -- Fletcher's former spokesman -- has no problem putting out complete falsehoods. He made-up poll numbers (that no one reported) to argue that Governor Fletcher (R) had tied Steve Beshear (D) with two weeks before Election Day (and then he lost by 18 as the real polls predicted), and he admitted he lied to the media earlier this year about how he obtained internal official records in an effort to smear Auditor Crit Luallen (D).

Besides, how bad do you have to be to be fired by Fletcher for inappropriate behavior? Seriously.

SurveyUSA -- McConnell With Lowest Approval Rating Ever

Not good news for U.S. Senator McConnell (R).

Turns out that the latest SurveyUSA numbers are in and his job approval rating is at its lowest level ever in the polls 31 months of tracking, and for the first time his disapproval is higher than his approval.

U.S. Sen. McConnell (R) Job Approval (10/12-14 results)
Approve 44 (49)
Disapprove 47 (45)

Says SurveyUSA:

For First Time, Kentucky’s McConnell Has Negative Approval Rating

In 31 months of SurveyUSA tracking, United States Senator from Kentucky Mitch McConnell has had job approval ratings ranging from a low of 48% to a high of 56%. His Net Job Approval, determined by subtracting disapproval from approval, ranged from Plus 4 last month to Plus 24 in June of 2005.

This month, for the first time, McConnell has a negative Net Job Approval — Minus 3. His approval rating is at 44%, the lowest since tracking began in May of 2005, and his disapproval is at an all-time high of47%.

Says Mark Hebert:

McConnell's job approval rating is lowest in his hometown of Louisville and 15 surrounding counties where just 40% of those polled think McConnell is doing a good job.

The Now NATIONAL Embarrassment Of State Rep. Jim Gooch (D)

Kentuckians for the Commonwealth highlights how the shameful ignorance of State Rep. Jim Gooch (D) to chair a Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee hearing to dispute the growing consensus on global warming -- and only invite global warming deniers to testify -- has quickly made its way to the national stage.

Turns out he was invited as a guest on Good Morning America on Sunday to discuss this latest travesty of Kentucky political leadership:

By the way, despite this shameful display, the Herald-Leader notes that:

But, despite the grumbling of some rank-and-file lawmakers, Democrats said, they don't plan to remove Rep. Jim Gooch, D-Providence, as chairman of the House Natural Resources and Environment Committee, where he has defended the coal industry and stopped environmental reforms for years.

Why the hell not?

To allow this man to continue to have a bully-pulpit and mock science and obstruct efforts to pass mine safety legislation in order to protect his coal company interests is an offense to every Kentuckian, and is a microcosm of what is wrong with our political system. Democrats should be demanding that Speaker Richards (D) remove Gooch from this post, and not settle for anything less.

Hypothetically, imagine if Gooch was chair of the education committee and held a hearing to promote a view that black students were genetically inferior to whites (and refused to allow an opposing view to testify at the hearing). Would we allow him to continue as chair? Of course not.

Imagine if he chaired a health-related committee and held a hearing on a hypothetical view that HIV does not cause AIDS (like a few loons still believe). Would we let him keep his powerful post? Hell no.

So, why is his current mockery of committee work being tolerated? This is a complete farce, another example of the joke of the Kentucky General Assembly, and yet another national chuckle at Kentucky's expense. Simply amazing.  Can we please find a primary challenger in Gooch's district?

Meanwhile, The New York Times recently published a story on the joining of forces by both Republican and Democratic governors across the country to create regional pacts on climate change. The story focused on the efforts of California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (R), and Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D).

Kentucky's Clear Blue Shift

One of the recent signs that have made more predict that U.S. Sen. McConnell (R) is in for a rougher re-election fight than expected is the fact that President Bush's (R) job approval numbers in Kentucky have plummeted to a disastrously low 35% approve and 65% disapprove.

Indeed, those numbers do suggest that the man who has proudly defended and advanced the Bush agenda ought to be very concerned. But a closer look at those numbers tell an even more problematic story for McConnell.

You see, while Bush is becoming less popular in Kentucky, he's also getting less popular in the other 49 states, so simply using Bush's plunging numbers in Kentucky only tell part of the story. But where things are much more instructive is to see where Bush has dropped more than elsewhere over the past few years.

When you do that, you'll notice that in only one state (New Mexico) has Bush's job performance tumbled more than it has in Kentucky -- among those states which SurveyUSA has been testing monthly since May 2005 -- when you compare the differences in President Bush's net rating (approval minus disapproval):

State	Nov 2007	May 2005	Diff
New Mexico	-35 (32/67)	-4 (46/50)	-31
Kentucky	-27 (35/62)	+2 (49/47)	-29
California	-44 (26/70)	-15 (39/54)	-29
New York	-54 (22/76)	-25 (35/60)	-29
Minnesota	-30 (34/64)	-2 (47/49)	-28
Massachusetts	-54 (22/76)	-26 (35/61)	-28
Virginia	-32 (33/65)	-6 (44/50)	-26
Kansas	-21 (38/59)	+4 (49/45)	-25
Washington	-35 (31/66)	-10 (42/52)	-25
Oregon	-36 (31/67)	-13 (42/55)	-23
Alabama	-16 (41/57)	+6 (50/44)	-22
Wisconsin	-33 (32/65)	-12 (42/54)	-21
Missouri	-28 (35/63)	-10 (42/52)	-18
Iowa	-33 (32/65)	-17 (39/56)	-16
Ohio	-29 (34/63)	-20 (38/58)	-9
AVERAGE	-33.8	-9.9	-23.9

That - along with the plummeting of new Kentucky Republican voters over the past two years and this month's landslide defeat of Governor Fletcher (R) -- really paints a picture that a political realignment is happening here in a noticeable way and these dynamics couldn't be happening to McConnell at a worse time.

Does that lead me to believe that Kentucky is becoming a Democratic state again? No, I wouldn't go that far.

But I do believe these trends tell us that Kentucky is much more politically comparable to the Midwest swing states than it is to the South, which is how the state seemed to behave for much of the past decade, until around 2005 when we began to see a subtle but steady change in the political attitudes of Kentucky voters, leading to John Yarmuth's (D) defeat of Anne Northup (R) in the 3rd congressional district and this year's defeat of Fletcher and plunging approval numbers for McConnell.

This is why McConnell should be even more concerned and why the environment is right for a serious challenge of both U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis' (R) and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield's (R) congressional seat, as well as the take-back of the state Senate.

(Note: While SurveyUSA has conducted monthly Bush approval tracking in the states since May 2005, about a year ago it narrowed its month survey from all 50 states to 15 states, which is why the above chart only lists those states.)

More On McConnell's Vulnerability

Congressional Quarterly has an interesting story this morning on the efforts to oust U.S. Senator McConnell (R) next year. Even in Kentucky, voters are fed-up with McConnell being a shameless and dishonest apologist for the disastrous Bush agenda, that on top of his recent "gift" to the state of the disastrous Fletcher administration.

Here's an excerpt:

Dems Test Odds on Top GOP Sen. McConnell in ‘08 Kentucky Horse Race
By Jessica Benton Cooney, CQ Staff

The Democrats’ plans to stage a serious challenge to Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell , the current Senate minority leader, are still in their formative stages. Some national Democratic strategists are high on state Auditor Crit Luallen — she was easily re-elected in the state’s Nov. 5 election — and state Attorney General Greg Stumbo is another possible contender. Neither, however, has committed to the Senate race.

Democrats are, nonetheless, emboldened by Democrat Steve Beshear’s trouncing of ethics controversy-plagued Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher — a McConnell ally — in the state’s off-year election. And they are sounding increasingly confident that they can at least seriously test McConnell’s hold on his Senate seat, which until not long ago appeared an iron grip. CQ Politics currently rates the race as Republican Favored, but is closely watching developments.

Moreover, it appears that McConnell’s rise to the top of the Senate Republican ranks last January is hardly an unalloyed blessing as he prepares for his 2008 campaign. While McConnell will run on the prestige and legislative clout that his position as minority leader provides, the post also has made him a much more visible target for attacks from Democratic politicians and from Web-based activists allied with the Democratic Party.

Democrats portray McConnell as the leading congressional standard-bearer for the policies of President George W. Bush , whose approval ratings in Kentucky — as in most of the nation — have tanked since he swept to victory in 2004 with 60 percent of the vote in the Southern border state. A Survey USA poll taken Nov. 9-11 showed 35 percent of Kentucky respondents approved of the job Bush is doing as president, to 62 percent who disapproved, figures driven heavily by the sharp decline in public support for the prolonged U.S. military intervention in Iraq.

McConnell is accused by his critics of using filibuster threats and other parliamentary maneuvers to obstruct the will of the majorities Democrats won in both the Senate and the House in the 2006 midterm elections.

...Apart from deep policy differences, there are Democrats who are anxious for their party to go after McConnell just to give the Republicans a taste of their own medicine. The Republicans’ successful effort in 2004 to oust Democrat Tom Daschle, who then served as minority leader, from his Senate seat in South Dakota broke a longstanding (albeit unspoken) tradition by the parties of laying off each other’s top congressional leaders in the name of legislative comity. Democrats still fume over efforts by the Bush White House, led by adviser Karl Rove, to encourage the strong candidacy of Republican former Rep. John Thune, and the South Dakota visit by Tennessee Republican Sen. Bill First, then the majority leader, to campaign against Daschle.

The decline of the bipartisan “hands off” approach to legislative leaders is just one of the events that underscores how times have changed since McConnell last ran for re-election in 2002.

Beshear Taps Jennifer Moore To Be KDP Chair, Nathan Smith As Vice-Chair

This morning, Gov.-elect Beshear (D) has recommended that Jennifer Moore be elected Chair of the Kentucky Democratic Party and that Northern Kentuckian Nathan Smith be elected Vice-Chair:

Governor-elect Steve Beshear today announced his intention to recommend the election of Jennifer Moore, age 33, as Chair of the Kentucky Democratic Party and Nathan Smith, age 36, as Vice-Chair.  Moore, who has served since June as the Party's Vice Chair, would replace Jonathan Miller, who is resigning as Chair to assume his duties as Secretary of the Finance and Administration Cabinet in the Beshear Administration.

Governor-elect Beshear will make his recommendation at the next meeting of the Kentucky Democratic Party's State Central Executive Committee which will be scheduled for Saturday, December 1, 2007. Pursuant to the Party's bylaws, Moore will serve as Acting Chair of the party until the State Central Executive Committee votes.

Obviously, I'm thrilled with the move as I've been a broken record over the past few years in highlighting the political rock-star that is Jennifer Moore -- as many of you have.

Also, I really love the move of recommending Nathan Smith to be Vice-Chair. Northern Kentucky Democrats have shown a great deal of muscle and organization of late in a political environment that is not in their favor. Despite the shifting landscape, NKY Dems have been very aggressive in targeting their efforts (recall the unexpectedly narrow losses in the state House last year by Randy Blankenship and Linda Klembara), and arguably the biggest story on Election Night this year was Beshear's double-digit margins in Kenton and Campbell Counties and losing the staunchly conservative Boone County by a stunning 300 votes, and Nathan has played a very large role in those successes.

As Vice Chair, Smith will be crucial in helping to recruit candidates to challenge both State Sen. Damon Thayer (R) and State Sen. Jack Westwood (R) next year, which is crucial to taking back the state Senate, the second biggest target out there next year for Kentucky Democrats after defeating U.S. Senator McConnell (R).

A great move.

Cillizza, WaPo: McConnell Now Among 10 Most Vulnerable Seats

It's official: U.S. Senator McConnell's (R) growing re-election concerns has finally landed him on a Top 10 most vulnerable list.

He debuts as #10 on Chris Cillizza's latest rankings on The Fix, his Washington Post political column:

10. Kentucky: OK, we admit we're intrigued by the prospect of a serious race in the Bluegrass State. While we believe Democrats are trying to read too much into how Ernie Fletcher's loss in the governor's race last week impacts Sen. Mitch McConnell's (R) reelection chances, there is clear evidence that the Senate minority leader could be in for a real race next fall. McConnell's decision to hit the television airwaves this month with ads touting his leadership role and what it means for the state is a tacit recognition on the part of his campaign that this race could be real. Much depends on the identity of the Democratic nominee. State Auditor Crit Luallen is the first choice of national Democrats, and a recent poll put her well within striking distance of McConnell. If Luallen decides against the race, Democrats will have to turn to a second-tier of candidates, including including state Attorney General Greg Stumbo, 2006 congressional candidate Andrew Horne and wealthy businessman Greg Fischer. Regardless of who Democrats nominate, McConnell will be ready. He is as tough a campaigner as they come, and this race will likely be expensive and bloody. (Previous ranking: N/A)

Also, recall what conservative columnist John David Dyche had to say last week:

A year ago, Kentucky Democrats had few thoughts of defeating Mitch McConnell next year. But times have changed.

“But is it possible that with the right combination of candidate and circumstances he could be beaten?” says Louisville attorney John David Dyche. “Sure he could.”

The Rothenberg Political Report Says Yarmuth's Seat "Not In Play"

Good news for U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D), as the The Rothenberg Political Report -- one of top national political analyst -- says his seat is "not in play". That should seriously affect any challenger's ability to attract much national money:

Of the 30 seats taken over by Democrats a year ago, 12 seats appear not to be in play in 2008 — those now held by Reps. Michael Arcuri (New York’s 24th district), Bruce Braley (Iowa’s 1st), Joe Courtney (Connecticut’s 2nd), Joe Donnelly (Indiana’s 2nd), Paul Hodes (New Hampshire’s 2nd), Ron Klein (Florida’s 22nd), Dave Loebsack (Iowa’s 2nd), Patrick Murphy (Pennsylvania’s 8th), Ed Perlmutter (Colorado’s 7th), Joe Sestak (Pennsylvania’s 7th), Heath Shuler (North Carolina’s 11th) and John Yarmuth (Kentucky’s 3rd).

Run Larry, Run!

As a Democrat, I love this. But Larry Forgy (R) is the biggest whack-job I've ever seen in politics.

From today's The Hill:

Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Forgy has made no secret of his anger over what he sees as McConnell’s role in dividing the state party by throwing Fletcher under the bus at the onset of his administration’s scandals and backing former Rep. Anne Northup in the GOP primary last spring. He believes this led to Fletcher’s defeat this week.

McConnell officially stayed neutral in the primary, and Fletcher’s campaign team was grateful to McConnell for what it said were his exhaustive efforts on Fletcher’s behalf, according to Piper.

But Forgy is furious, and he told The Hill Thursday he is not ruling out an independent bid to unseat McConnell, though he insists he doesn’t want to be a spoiler.

Forgy, who was the party’s nominee for governor in 1995, said he is “pretty sore” at McConnell and the state party for what he sees as their betrayal of Fletcher.

“The only difference between that and cannibals is that cannibals normally don’t eat their friends,” Forgy said.

While I previously mocked Forgy as one of the Four Horsemen of Fletcher's Apocalypse (along with Brett Hall, Brian Goetll, and Marcus Carey), there's still time for Larry and friends to pull a two-fer and bring down McConnell as well, all within 12 months.

Run Larry, Run!

(Hat tip: Pol Watchers)

KY-2: Is U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) About To Step-Down From His House Seat And Not Seek Re-Election?

UPDATE (1:50 PM): One prominent Republican in the district who I trust a great deal says Lewis is running and will be filing papers next week. The sale of the homes were just a coincidence. So, I suspect we can put this one to rest.

While political rumors are a dime a dozen, there is some reason to wonder whether there's something to this one.

Apparently, there is a lot of chatter that U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) is planning to step down from his seat and not run for re-election this year, and instead plans to move to Florida. This rumor is based on two sources from Lewis' area. Somewhat corroborative is the fact that Lewis' home in Cecilia, KY is for sale, as is his late father's home also in Cecilia. Furthermore, the talk is that Senator McConnell (R) wants Hardin County Judge-Executive Harry Berry (R) (Anne Northup's (R) campaign treasurer during her gubernatorial bid) to run for Lewis' seat.

A couple of things.

First, I have confirmed that Lewis' home in Cecilia is indeed for sale for $689,000. Hornback Realty Company in Elizabethtown is the listing agent. Here's the listing (by the way, click here to see that it matches-up with Lewis' address):

(click image for larger version of the listing)

Also, it seems that a sale is pending (click here) on Lewis' father's house (apparently he passed away last year). Is this a sign that Lewis is liquidating his Kentucky assets?

Also, while Lewis has never been much of a fundraiser, he's only been raising an average of just $125,000 in each of the past three quarters, even though he should have every reason to believe he's going to have a legitimate challenge again this cycle. Through the third-quarter, Lewis has just $312,000 of cash-on-hand.

While none of this proves the rumor that Lewis isn't running for re-election, it is nonetheless noteworthy and gives the rumor some credence.

P.S. -- On a related note, Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire (D) is also talking about challenging for Lewis' seat (the story is in today's Owensboro Messenger-Inquirer, which is subscription-only). Yesterday, we discussed how State Sen. David Boswell (D) announced that he plans to run.

P.P.S. -- Regardless of whether Lewis retires or not, keep in mind that Gov.-elect Beshear (D) won 18 of the 21 counties this congressional district spans, losing only Grayson (51-48), Taylor (53-47) and Green (57-43). No doubt it's a very conservative district, but the voters are indeed open-minded to good Democrats.

Two Days After Election, DSCC Launches Ad Against McConnell Citing His Praise Of Fletcher

Ouch. This one is going to hurt, courtesy of the DSCC. (Click here for their press release).

No doubt, U.S. Senator McConnell (R) will start tapping his campaign war chest right away to try to stop the bleeding:

By the way, McConnell has a much bigger problem than Fletcher as he moves forward and that is he'll have to defend and promote the Bush Administration all the way through 2008, while Bush doesn't seem to give a rat's ass about how his 2008 agenda will affect the political environment since he doesn't have to help a vice president running for the top spot.

How in the world will McConnell straight face the voters as Bush continues to build towards war in Iran or continues to veto important programs like SCHIP that more than 80% of Americans support -- while McConnell shepards through such idiocy in the Senate?

That will be his Achilles' Heel. Mark my words.

McConnell is not running in a static environment where all he must do is rehabilitate an image based on the past. He'll continue to be under fire for unpopular policies from a president whose job approval rating is down to an unimaginable 24% in at least one poll.

Kentucky Mitch has become Washington Mitch, and based on Bush's own dismal job numbers in Kentucky, McConnell is a very vulnerable man right now, even in his Old Kentucky Home (despite the fact he was born in Alabama). Just remember that Hillary Clinton (D) is currently out-performing McConnell --in Kentucky -- in hypothetical general election match-ups for 2008, and his own job ratings are consistently under 50%.

Not good news for McConnell. Expect him to hit the panic button right away and go on television ASAP.

Ellen Williams Unplugged

I got a verbatim transcript of former Kentucky GOP Chair Ellen Williams' KET Election Night interview that I referenced yesterday:

Bill Goodman:  What do you expect as far as opposition to Sen. McConnell?

Ellen Williams:  You know, I really don't --  uh -- it's hard to say.  Sen. McConnell will stand on his own record -- uh -- he'll run on what's he's done for Kentucky and what he's done for this country.  And if anyone wants to run against him, you know, I wish 'em luck.  I wouldn't wanna run against him.  He's a formidable opponent, he's always well funded, uh, he's always strategically superior and, uh, you know, I think Larry Forgy has been talking about possibly running tonight, and I would say to Larry, ya know, let's stop.  I know you're mad, you've never won a race but, ya know, let's don't run against him -- and leave it go, just leave it go!

The reader who sent this to me noted that Williams' only outrageous remark was earlier in the interview when she said McConnell did everything he could to help get Fletcher re-elected, though KET analyst John McGarvey quickly noted that McConnell mostly had treated Fletcher like he was radioactive.

KY2: It's (Almost) Official -- Boswell To Challenge Lewis

Music to my ears...looks like we have a top-tier challenger for one congressional seat as State Sen. David Boswell (D) appears ready to challenge the very unimpressive and beatable U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) for his 2nd Congressional District seat:

Democratic State Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro said he is planning a press conference "in the very, very near future" to officially announce his candidacy to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecilia.

"I do plan to run for the U.S. Congress in the 2nd District," Boswell said yesterday. "I think people, overall, are ready for change. They're ready for a new guard."

Boswell, who was agriculture commissioner from 1984 to 1988 and has been a senator since 1991, said the win by fellow Democrat Steve Beshear in Tuesday's governor's race gives him and other potential candidates for next year's election a huge boost.

Now we need to find candidates in the 1st, 4th, and why not take a shot in the 5th, even if it's an enormous longshot?

Aside from never knowing what can happen in a political election, why not aggressively challenge all seats instead of effectively conceding them? I'm sure we can find a young local lawyer in the district that would be willing to take the plunge and get some political hands-on experience.

Another Conservative Program Rejected -- This Time At The Hands Of Conservative Voters

When we look back at this era of politics, one of the narratives I'm certain we'll be discussing is how so many of the core ideas and beliefs of the conservative ideologues of our time were either rejected, proved to be wrong-headed, or simply disastrous experiments.

Be it their desire for pre-emptive war, denial of the effects of global warming, refusal to embrace universal health care, attempts to legislate morality, efforts to rollback regulations on corporate America, attempts to destroy organized labor, etc, we're seeing how wrong they are on so many critical issues.

Case-in-point: yesterday in Utah -- arguably the most conservative state in the country -- voters overwhelmingly repealed the nation's first universal school voucher law that the Utah legislature had enacted last year:

After a multimillion-dollar political campaign that pitted teachers’ unions nationally against school choice advocates, Utah voters yesterday repealed the nation’s first universal voucher law by an overwhelming margin.

With nearly 97 percent of the votes counted, state election results showed that 62 percent of voters rejected the voucher law narrowly enacted earlier this year, in what was Utah’s first “citizens’ veto” referendum in 30 years.

The level of opposition was much greater in the voting public than in the GOP-controlled legislature, which approved the voucher law by a single vote. Had the law been allowed to take effect, it would have provided all public school students with vouchers ranging from $500 to $3,000 a year, depending on family income.

To opponents of vouchers, the rejection was even more impressive coming from voters in a conservative, Republican state. “Taxpayers, no matter their politics, see vouchers as poor public policy,” Anne L. Bryant, the executive director of the Alexandria, Va.-based National School Boards Association, said in a statement.

America is finally coming to its senses and rejecting the disastrous policies enacted and pushed by the Bush Administration and 12 years of Republican Congress. We saw the first sign of it with the 2006 elections and 2008 isn't shaping-up to be any better for them either.

Is this the return of common sense government that provides for the greatest good and not their narrow interests? I'm crossing my fingers.

Ellen Williams Tells Larry Forgy To "Stop"

Though often an adversary, I've always been a big fan of former Kentucky GOP Chair Ellen Williams, and if you watched her live interview during KET's Election Night coverage you'd know why.

When asked about the chatter that Larry Forgy (R) is considering a challenge to U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell (R) next year, she remarked:

"I would say to Larry, stop... you've never won a race... let it go... Mitch McConnell has won race after race."

I love Ellen.

(Note: This quote is what conservative blogger, Cyberhillbilly, posted on his site, but I'd love to find her complete verbatim remarks because I remember them even more "candid" than the excerpt above when I watched them live.)

U.S. Senator Crit Luallen (D)?

(Note: I fear this post from late last night got buried too quickly, so I wanted to put it back on top for a while longer...)

Not to jump ahead so quickly, but I wanted to report what a reader just e-mailed me:

Mark:

I was at a Democratic Senate Campaign Committee fundraiser tonight at Senator Kennedy's home in Washington.  Senator Schumer spoke about next year's senate races to the 100 or so people attending. He talked most specifically about Kentucky and said that Crit Luallen - he mentioned her by name and the fact that she is now the state auditor - will soon be entering the race against McConnell (I think he said she has "pretty much decided to enter the race" or words to that effect).  He noted the DSCC polling showed her trailing McConnell by only three points (46 to 43 - close to the recent public polling). Anything more certain being reported in Kentucky at the moment?  Schumer made it sound like it was essentially a done deal, and he added that the DSCC was going to significantly back her.

We'll talk more about this race in the coming days, but nothing would delight me more (and make me want to keep BGR running through 2008) than Crit taking on Big Bad Mitch. That would be a race for the ages. I hope she does it!

Denial Sets In For Republicans

I can't help but notice that some of our Republican friends are posting comments this morning that last night's election told us nothing other than the voters dislike Governor Fletcher (R) and that Democrats didn't gain anything last night and that U.S. Senator McConnell (R) is just fine.

No doubt, there was a palpable feeling that Fletcher needed to be ousted, and that surely drove much of the voters' desire. Those are cute talking points, but they fail to address things like this:

1. Why has new voters registering as Republican plummeted since 2005, after reaching parity that year, especially its precipitous drop for five consecutive months heading into yesterday's election?
                     
2. Why are Senator McConnell's (R) favorables and re-elect numbers under that magical 50% mark in most independent polls?
                        
3. Why is Hillary Clinton (D) is outperforming Senator McConnell (R) in Kentucky in hypothetical general election match-up?

And that does even address President Bush's (R) rock-bottom job approval in Kentucky, the fact that Democrats are in full-control of two crucial congressional districts, that Fletcher lost the three Northern Kentucky counties by seven points -- when Republican leadership made clear in recent weeks that NKY would remain a Fletcher strong-hold.

It's understandable that Republicans are going to try to find the silver-lining in last night's results, but it's important to separate fact from fiction and we're already seeing them spin their little fables, hoping the media will report the same.

Kentucky has not magically transformed itself into a blue state, but voters sure seems a lot more willing to embrace Democrats of late, based on their actions at the voting booth, how they are registering to vote, and their attitudes that recent polling has made very clear.

Though, as a Democrat, I sure hope this state of denial lingers for a while...

In Final Days, Not Much Hope Remains For Fletcher (Al Cross)

It's so hard to believe -- given how historic Governor Fletcher's (R) 2003 victory was -- that Al Cross' final column in the Sunday before the 2007 election would be titled:

In final days, not much hope remains for Fletcher

I don't think I've ever been more excited about seeing someone get thrown out of office like the voters appear poised to do with Fletcher. His behavior during this general election has been an eye-opener for many, as he's every bit the out-of-touch, arrogant, hateful, hypocritical, dishonest, holier-than-thou nut that his political beginnings suggested (click here for a quick refresher).

Next up: U.S. Senator McConnell (R), Senate President David Williams (R), and the three Republican state Senate seats needed to take back the majority in 2008. How much fun will it be to maintain a constant focus on these guys for the next year? And how long overdue...

McConnell Spins Herald-Leader, Says All Is Well

There's a rule of thumb in politics that when an incumbent is polling under 50% for re-election against hypothetical candidates, it should raise red flags that there are serious problems.

Yesterday, the Herald-Leader/WTVQ reported devastating hypothetical general election match-ups for U.S. Senator McConnell (R). It showed him failing to crack 46% in any head-to-heads (among much lesser-known opponents), and was ahead of Auditor Crit Luallen (D) and U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (D) -- by a mere five points (45-40 and 46-41, respectively).

Disappointingly, the Herald-Leader allowed McConnell to spin these results as good news and even offered themselves up to publish McConnell's own self-reported internal polling which shows him to be a beloved figure -- contrary to the independent polls which clearly shows more than half of Kentucky is not approving of his job.

Recently, McConnell told the media that part of his re-election strategy will be to tie his Democratic opponent to what he presumes will be presidential nominee Hillary Clinton (D). But that raises an issue that the media might considering asking him (God-forbid we ask them to do too much) -- simply, according to last week's statewide polling about the 2008 presidential race, Hillary Clinton (D) leads Rudy Giuliani (R) by a 47 percent to 45 percent margin in Kentucky.

So here's the question for the good senator -- why is Hillary Clinton out-performing you in your own state?

In fact, Clinton leads Romney by a 50-41 margin and Huckabee by a 49-39 margin, again, in Kentucky. The only candidates that beat her, in Kentucky, are Thompson (47-45) and McCain (49-45). So, Clinton fails to fall below 45% in any general election match-up in Kentucky just like McConnell.

Hmmm. While McConnell might be able to adeptly spin the Herald-Leader, these numbers are a very, very bad sign for him, as Hillary Clinton is out-performing our senior senator in his own state...

Beshear: State Senate & McConnell Next Up

Steve Beshear (D) offered a peek at what to expect post-November in today's Ronnie Ellis story:

“I call Ernie Fletcher the great uniter,” Beshear told the crowd. “He’s united Democrats and Republicans and Independents. They ALL want to throw him out of Frankfort.”

He went on to say Democrats would take back the state Senate, now in Republican majority control and retire Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning in 2010 – “right after we take care of Mitch McConnell next year.”

Fletcher Planning Scorched-Earth Effort Against The Kentucky Republican Establishment For Not Backing Him?

One of the most remarkable things of the past year is the sheer number of prominent Republican insiders who have willingly communicated their frustrations about Governor Fletcher (R) directly to me, allowing BGR to be their vehicle for getting out their viewpoint and dropping interesting insider information on what's going on behind the scenes.

Not surprisingly, that's only increased of late, and I assure you we're not talking about second-level know-nothing local people who are coming forward.

The mosaic that is coming into very clear focus is that:

1. Fletcher doesn't care about anyone on the ticket other than himself;
                      
2. He would be more than happy if Trey Grayson (R) lost his re-election as he never got over Trey's flirting with running against him this year, and;
                     
3. Fletcher appears to be tying sticks of dynamite to key Republican establishments and is prepared to detonate them when he loses, blaming them generally for failing to help him during the Merit scandal and specifically for encouraging and backing Anne Northup's (R) primary challenge, which effectively sealed his general election fate.

Along those lines, I'm told by one top Republican insider that Robbie Rudolph (R), Fletcher's running mate, and Chief of Staff Stan Cave are actively meeting and encouraging Larry Forgy (R) to run in next year's Senate race as an independent. They either know they'd have no chance in a primary challenge, or they simply want to defeat Senator McConnell (R) as revenge for what he's done to Fletcher since the Merit scandal began in May 2005.

And it's hard not to conclude that Fletcher's disgraced, foul-mouthed former mouthpiece, Brett Hall, is ready to assist an independent Forgy bid, given his numerous slams of McConnell and Kentucky Republican Party leadership (before the current B Team came along in June), and his well-known close relationship with Loony Larry.

All this brings me back to Ted Jackson's comment about Fletcher early this year, which seems more true today than ever:

"Ernie Fletcher is the David Koresh of Kentucky Republican politics ... He's boarded the windows and locked the doors and said, 'Take it from us, we'll burn it to the ground.'"

It sure does appear that Fletcher is ready to help bring-down any Republican that failed to help him cover-up his law-breaking and save his political career, and burn down what remains of the Republican Party of Kentucky.

As a Democrat, I couldn't be happier for such fratricide, but even I have a tiny bit of sympathy (just a little) for the talented Kentucky Republicans who worked so hard up to 2003 to create a robust political machine and elect their first governor in 32 years, only to watch one moron, and his incompetent posse, tear down in a few years what took a few decades to fully build. The national climate only added to the disaster, just as the collapsed levees destroyed what the hurricane winds didn't.

Of course, it won't take Kentucky Republicans that long to rebuild, but they'll have to do so without the Governor's Mansion, without their prized 3rd Congressional District seat, with an enormous expansion of the Democratic majority in the state House, with a realistic possibility of losing their state Senate majority, with the possibility that their rising star (Trey Grayson) could lose his seat, with a public that has sour