BluegrassReport.org

KY-2 race: Lewis surprises everyone by dropping out

Well, I don't think anybody saw THAT coming.

"That" was the surprise, last-minute withdrawal of Rep. Ron Lewis (R-Cecilia) from the Second District race.  Instead, claiming that Washington wasn't as fun since the Democrats took over last year, he pulled out and put his chief of staff, Daniel London, in his place.

Now McConnell's in a tizzy, and he's thrown his weight behind state Sen. Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green) who filed after somehow hearing that Lewis was going to get out.  I'm still wondering how he found out.

And, of course, let's not forget that the Democrats in the race are both from Daviess County.  While I'd rather have avoided a primary in this race, evidently Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire, who will face state Sen. David Boswell in that very primary, didn't care what I thought.

Bear in mind, though, that Boswell has much more name recognition in the district and has a good, sound record on which to run.  Haire, however, is almost totally unknown outside of Daviess County.  For those unfamiliar with him, it should be known that Haire was the driving force behind a relatively unpopular countywide smoking ban a couple of years ago, and he has also been dead set against even the discussion of consolidating the governments of Owensboro and Daviess County.  The latter stand comes at a time when many at the grass roots level want to at least explore the concept.

With his greater name recognition and connections in and out of the district, and the fact that Boswell has not taken any seriously unpopular stands on the issues through the years, I've gotta believe that David has a huge advantage here.

PoliticalBase.com

I'm sorry this post is so long overdue, but I want to formally introduce the new political project that I've made mention of some some time.

I'm really excited to announce that I've partnered with Shelby Bonnie, the co-founder of CNET -- one of the world's first online media companies -- and a Kentuckian -- on a site called Political Base.

I hope you'll add it to your rotation of political sites you regularly visit. Click here for the introductory post I wrote, as well as the very nice story The New York Times published about us, and the project, last week.

What you'll notice about the site is that it's a neat collision of politics and technology. On the front page you'll see the more familiar political news/blog content, but you'll notice that the site has a very extensive community and user-generated component with an ever-growing wiki function to allow users to populate pages on politicians, business leaders, governments, media, and pretty much whatever else users wish to create. The site also has a third feature -- tools. Aside from integrating all FEC data on individual contributions, we also have up-to-date polling, and an AP news feed that updates by the minute. (I intend to expand on both functions in the coming months as well as building out a more prominent state-based election pages).

I'm the managing editor of the site as well as the front page writer, and while much of what you'll see right now is related to the presidential race, I'm looking forward to delving deep into what's going on in the states (as I did with BGR), and that includes keeping tabs on what's happening in Kentucky.

In a lot of ways, Political Base will be a lot like BGR. I'll spend a good deal of my time providing some context to the daily happenings in the political world, offer my analysis based on my experience in the trenches, shine light on where the media isn't living-up to its promises, and placing a special emphasis on state-based politics, campaigns and an examination of local trends and issues likely to be harbingers of coming national change. And unlike BGR, I actually have a budget and small staff, including a young journalist to work on the original content I loved to do on BGR.

So, if you liked what I did with BGR, I'm hopeful you'll be just as pleased with the broader vision of Political Base. The one caveat is that I'm not inclined to jump into races in a direct and active way. While I won't be shy about criticism, I'm inclined to keep an arms-length distance between my work and any candidate. Though I never took money from any campaign during my time on BGR, I certainly was not reluctant to actively support and promote candidates over the past few years. My focus at Political Base will be more community and analysis, and less activism.

Meanwhile, BGR isn't going anywhere. I've been in discussion to have some new people take over the site on a day-to-day basis and have offered to contribute on a regular and consistent basis, especially on the things happening in Kentucky that have some national significance.

Finally, this site has meant so much to me and the incredible readership and community we developed really did play a significant role in the remarkable changes to Kentucky political system over the past few years. I hope you are all as proud of those accomplishments as I am. None of it could have happened without your contributions, debate, and support. I'm also proud that we had a robust Republican community, as well. While I know they didn't agree with me on many things, I hope that they appreciated the principled stands we took, as we tried to hold Democrats to those same standards, even though we were never shy about our partisan support.

So, while this isn't a good bye -- because I intend to stay active on BGR now that the new project is off the ground -- I do hope you'll spend some time at Political Base.

Best, Mark

New Poll Shows McConnell's Vulnerability Waning?

Politico has the story of a new poll out, conducted by Voter/Consumer Research in which McConnell's approval rating appears to be back in the favorable range at a comfortable 61% rating.

That alone should be disappointing enough, but the poll also shows that the man who has been considered by many in the Kentucky blogosphere to be the best candidate to knock Mitch off might not be the voters' favorite:

Almost two-thirds of the electorate were unaware or had no impression of Lunsford; significantly fewer voters knew of Fischer and Horne. Fischer was widely recognized, but most voters seemed to have no opinion of him.

Is this bad news for the Horne campaign?  Who knows.  But it's bad news for McConnell if he has to start a year before his re-election running ads, completely unopposed and with no Democratic nominee picked to take him on.  As I mentioned in my previous post, it will take a united Democratic party to knock off the Grim Reaper.  Now let's get down to the business of knocking those approval ratings back down to where they belong, below 50% by exposing the real Mitch McConnell.

The DSCC Hits Mitch Hard

Just out on the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's website is a new edition of the Mitch McConnell year in review including such titanic mistakes as his vote in opposition of a war funding bill that would have resulted in a change in course in Iraq, his calling Governor Fletcher "the best governor for Louisville in my lifetime" shortly before that hand-picked McConnell Machine Governor lost by 18 points in one of the biggest, nastiest landslides our commonwealth has ever witnessed, and his holding a multi-million dollar fundraiser with Mr. 29% approval-rating, George "Dubya" Bush.

Let's face it.  This clown has got to go.  It may not be easy, but with a strong candidate and a united front among Democrats, he can be defeated.  God only knows our Commonwealth and country deserve for him to be.

I'm Back...

Folks, I'm so sorry for my continued absences of late. On Monday, I'll have a formal announcement about the new national project I'll be working on (and have been for the past month) and am so very excited to share it with all of you.

In the meantime, I wanted to offer-up my quick analysis of last night's wild New Hampshire primary and would love to hear your thoughts and analysis as well.

As someone who's been in politics for a while, last night's victory by Hillary Clinton (D) in the New Hampshire Primary was simply astounding. Sure, pollsters will miss the mark from time to time, but nothing like this, though I suspect the polling was actually accurate because polls are simply a snapshot in time and things can change very quickly in campaigns. Apparently, in New Hampshire, they changed in about 48 hours.

So, what did happen? Who really knows. My suspicion is that a combination of things occurred.

First, I think the over-the-top and pretty vicious piling-on that the media did to Clinton in the past few days evoked a backlash, particularly among women. Despite a withering assault, Clinton stay focused and didn't wilt, which is not a bad trait for someone wanting to be president. Also, her well-publicized emotional moment surely didn't hurt her (again, particularly among women) as it helped to humanize a candidate who often comes across as emotionless on the campaign trail (recall the big bump after Al kissed Tipper at the 2000 Democratic convention).

Secondly, since independent voters -- who strongly preferred Barack Obama (D) over Clinton -- are such a large component of each party's primary turnout, I have to wonder how many independents saw the same thing we did -- that Obama was pulling away in the polls while Mitt Romney (R) was making-up ground against John McCain (R) -- and a chunk of them decided very late to vote in the race they felt was more competitive, and backed McCain instead.

Thirdly, Obama's candidacy has always been a risky one to some degree in that they have placed a premium on getting younger voters, and first-time voters, to participate at a level we've not seen in a generation. Did those voters manage to turnout in Iowa because the race was so close (per the polls), it was the first election, and because they believed they were part of history, but those same voters didn't turnout in New Hampshire at the same level because they didn't feel the same sense of urgency?

Who knows? Certainly, a 10 to 15 point turnaround in 48 hours wasn't the result of any one thing. But it was a remarkable evening and has surely boosted Clinton in a way that no straight-up three point victory could have accomplished.

As a Democrat who has not hitched his wagon to any candidate (I actually like all four of the major candidates), I think allowing the process to go beyond two small states -- that are not representative of America in most measurements -- is a very good thing. Democrats deserve a lengthier opportunity to scrutinize the candidates before they head-off to the Super Bowl. There's a lot to like about Obama, but I want to see him tested. Recall he had no real Republican opponent when he cruised to the US Senate as whackjob Alan Keyes flew to Illinois to step into the void and challenge him, and got waxed.

So, I'm glad we'll get to see how Obama responds to the jolt he received when everyone was ready to coronate him yesterday afternoon. Meanwhile, we all watched Clinton get off the mat and claw her way to victory. I've never loved her but her performance over the past few days has certainly earned my respect.

"What a way to start an administration ..."

You just know that thought has to be going through Governor Beshear's mind as he looks for places to trim Kentucky's budget.

We could debate long and loudly about the reasons for our Commonwealth's budget woes.  But the fact remains that throughout the campaign, Ernest Fletcher and his goons painted the rosiest of pictures, all in an effort to win re-election.

Now, however, our new Governor has to pick up the shattered pieces of that picture (Medicaid, school funding, and so on) and figure out how to make them fit back together in a smaller frame.

All I can say is that no stone need be left unturned when it comes to resolving this crisis.  It's going to be painful for some of our fellow Kentuckians; that much is certain.  This is the time for "thinking outside the box," and here's what I'd do right away if I were in our Governor's shoes:

1. Push casino gaming, and push it hard.  I know this is already in the works.  Personally, I'm not a gambler, but the fact is that casinos have proven to be a major financial shot in the arm elsewhere, and we're missing the boat (no pun intended) by letting our neighboring states pass us by with their casinos.
2. Propose an increase in the cigarette tax.  I'm a smoker, and an increase in the cigarette tax would adversely affect my wallet, but I think the Governor is wrong to dismiss an increase out of hand, particularly at this time.
3. Increase the gasoline tax.  I know, I know, it's another unpopular idea with gas at $3+ a gallon, but we've got to do something if we want to continue to improve and maintain our highway system, and, to a great extent, there's not enough money now to do either.
4. Speaking of our highway system, we have far too many miles of roads in Kentucky that are maintained by the state (I'd appreciate it if someone could provide a number; I've been unable to nail it down).  Other states have a statutory limit on the number of miles of road that are state-maintained.  This should be looked at closely.

I can hear some of you now, and you're probably wondering why I would propose some of these things.  We've got to get real, folks.  If we want to move Kentucky forward, if we want to solve the budget problem, we have to accept the reality that doing things the way they've been done in the past doesn't always work anymore.

It is going to take a concerted effort, on the part of the Administration and the General Assembly, and to a great extent those of us whom they serve and ultimately answer to, to fix this problem.  We must all come together.  Governor Beshear wants ideas, so let's put some out there, right here, right now. 

The Iowans have spoken

I must admit that I was somewhat surprised by the results of last night's Iowa Caucuses.  If you haven't heard, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won.

But the bigger surprise was the fact that Sen. Clinton and Mitt Romney and their millions of dollars and manpower couldn't deliver victory for themselves in the Hawkeye State.  It would definitely seem that Iowans are looking to Sen. Obama as the agent of change for the Democrats.  Ditto Gov. Huckabee, to a lesser extent, for the Republicans.  I say "to a lesser extent" because it was obvious where all of the energy was during the celebratory speeches last night.  The atmosphere around Obama was electric.  Huckabee played to a somewhat quieter, smaller audience.

The media makes much of both men's abilities to speak plainly to the people.  That's what we've been looking for all these years, and finally there are at least a couple of candidates who will do it.  I'm no soothsayer, but I do think that the folks in Iowa might be on to something by selecting the two candidates who seem to be able to tell it like it is.  Of course, we'll have a better picture in the weeks ahead as more than half the country goes to the polls.

It's just a shame we here in Kentucky won't get our chance to weigh in until the process is well and truly over with.

Your thoughts?