After talking with dozens of people over the past month about the state of the races in this year's statewide elections, I wanted to offer my perspective and the conclusions I've drawn about where things stand and where they're likely headed with the election just 48 days away. I'd also love your thoughts on them, particularly where they differ from mine, so please post comments:
GOVERNOR
Simply, I think it's clear we're on the verge of a landslide ouster of incumbent Governor Fletcher (R) by former Lt. Governor Steve Beshear (D). The polling has been amazingly consistent in showing Fletcher trailing by 17-19 points and that margin is only likely increase as undecideds largely fall behind Beshear and the expected piling-on effect that these sort of blow-outs usually create.
It's clear that Fletcher's anti-gaming theme has garnered no traction whatsoever and Fletcher continues to have serious trouble galvanizing his Republican base (he's only getting about 70% of GOP voters, instead of the 90% he received in 2003) -- nevermind any hopes for garnering the required 25% of Democrats and 50% of independents he'll need to have a shot at winning in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 3:2 margin.
Finally, there continues to be considerable talk on both sides of the political aisle that Fletcher is still seriously struggling to raise money. It seems clear that Fletcher went on television a lot sooner that he could afford and that he's going to be very limited in how much he'll be able to buy in the final weeks, a problem compounded by the belief that the RGA's media campaign on Fletcher's behalf isn't going to last but a few more weeks (they too are aware of polling and aren't going to dump endless money down a rat hole), leaving Fletcher on his own.
In contrast, Beshear has only run a modest media campaign so far and appears ready to do what he did in the primary: unleash a very large buy in the final weeks to close-out the race. The possibility that Beshear is able to run two or even three times Fletcher's media buy in the last two weeks is very real. Also, unlike Fletcher, Beshear has been able to run positive, issues-based ads, in contrast to Fletcher's single-issue attacks. The likelihood that Beshear is able to close-out this race running a positive campaign is only going to widen the already large margins.
The only remaining questions for me are 1) does Fletcher's running mate, Robbie Rudolph (R), opt to write a personal check of $500,000 in hopes of averting a disastrous 20-point loss (and try to kepe the margin closer to 10-15); 2) how many more Republicans publicly separate themselves from Fletcher in the final month (for instance, does Senate President David Williams make one of his patented off-handed remark about a looming landslide?), and 3) does Fletcher come to the realization that a devastating loss is coming and he decides to close-out on a positive note in order to save whatever is left of his reputation in hopes of staying viable for future public roles he may be interested in undertaking down the road (though, I can't fathom he'd take another shot at political office)? I suspect the answers are "no" to items 1 and 3, and "yes" to item 2.
PREDICTION: While miracles occasionally happen in politics, it's going to take serious divine intervention to keep this race within single-digits. More likely, it seems that Beshear is headed for a landslide that will threaten former Gov. Wallace Wilkinson's (D) 331,490 vote margin in 1987, and he's poised to crack 60% of the vote on November 6th. I predict a final margin of 62-38.
ATTORNEY GENERAL
For the second straight cycle, Republicans foolishly nominated their worst-possible general election candidate in the fanatical State Rep. Stan Lee (R), a man who many Republicans are publicly stating is "too extreme" to be the state's highest-ranking law enforcement officer. Instead of nominating an experienced prosecutor like Commonwealth Attorney Tim Coleman (R), the Republican base opted for the unelectable lunatic fringe.
However, given the poisonous environment that Governor Fletcher (R) has left for Republicans this year, I don't think any Republican nominee could defeat Jack Conway (D) -- the budding superstar of the Democratic Party -- this fall.
This race has trended Conway's way from the beginning as he has dominated all facets of this election, from from name ID, fundraising, and support. The independent polling shows Conway with a growing double-digit lead, with both polls showing Conway winning 62-38, when undecideds are allocated.
PREDICTION: Conway will win big, garnering between 58 and 62 percent of the vote.
AUDITOR
This race isn't worthy of more than a few sentences. Even Republicans who dislike Auditor Crit Luallen (D) have told me there is no good option for them, as they will either vote for Luallen or just skip that race on their ballot altogether. One Republican argued that the job of Auditor is a serious one and not a place for inexperienced and unqualified candidates like Linda Greenwell (R), equating Greenwell as Auditor as tantamount to Jack Wood being elected attorney general (Wood was the GOP's 2003 nominee for AG).
PREDICTION: A landslide with Luallen garnering 59 to 64 percent of the vote.
TREASURER
This another race that has never been in question from the start, thanks largely to the disaster of Governor Fletcher (R) who is top-of-the-ticket. Independent polling showed Todd Hollenbach (D) with a 20-point lead over Melinda Wheeler (R), which is confirmed by internal polling.
Republicans that I've talk with about this race believe that Hollenbach will win big. One common theme I've heard is laughter over Wheeler's insistence that she's only running for the office so that she can try to eliminate it. Aside from the fact that no one believes Wheeler's position -- since she was scheming for a long time about running for statewide office -- they also ask why would anyone vote for a candidate that doesn't want the job in the first place?
Moreover, Wheeler has been unable to raise much money (a fact that Republicans have publicly acknowledged), and don't forget that her campaign manager is Brett Hall -- the man who disastrously advised Fletcher through a series of incomprehensible decisions during the first year of the Merit System scandal.
PREDICTION: Another landslide. Hollenbach will garner 60 percent of the vote, plus or minus a point or two.
COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE
The only solace for Republicans will be the re-election of Commissioner of Agriculture -- and UK basketball great -- Richie Farmer (R). Farmer won't win this race by a huge margin, since he'll have to contend with significant numbers of straight-ticket voting by Democrats, but no one expects anything but Richie's re-election.
The biggest question about Farmer is whether he is seriously considering a party-switch after the November election. It's no secret that Governor Fletcher and his minions have treated Farmer poorly over the past four years and there's lots of chatter that he's open to leaving the Republican ranks. No one believes that Farmer is a Republican for any deeply-held philosophical reasons, and leaving the party would not be a earth-shattering decision for him. Assuming November is the expected Democratic rout, I think there will be a concerted effort by top Democrats to reach-out to Farmer. Will he do it? I suspect only Richie knows.
PREDICTION: Farmer wins re-election easily, but garners only 53 to 57 percent of the vote.
SECRETARY OF STATE
Trey Grayson's (R) quest for re-election is the only competitive race on the November ballot, and the single biggest factor in determining whether Trey gets another four years is how badly Governor Fletcher loses.
The sentiment for a long time was that as long as Fletcher didn't lose by more than 10 points, Trey was going to be fine. Well, it now looks like Fletcher may lose by twice that amount and Republicans I've talked with are very, very concerned about whether Trey can survive the tsunami heading his way. I agree.
I had believed for a long time that Trey would have any problems with re-election. About a month ago, after watching Fletcher's numbers plummet and learning about internal numbers, I became convince that Trey was vulnerable.
Now, I truly believe this race is in the "Toss-Up" category, but still leaning towards Trey, but the trend-line is not good for him with seven weeks to go. Honestly, given the dynamics, I'd rather be Bruce Hendrickson (D) right now than Trey Grayson. I think the environment is noticeably deteriorating for him, and every Fletcher mis-step slices another chunk of support away from Trey.
Ultimately -- as mentioned in the Governor section about -- if Fletcher finds himself in final weeks getting outspent on television by Beshear by a margin of two or three, then Trey has serious problems and he will be dealing with three simultaneous dynamics working against him: 1) a very energized Democratic base who will turnout in fairly large numbers (like they did in the 2006 midterm elections) to clean house in Frankfort; 2) a demoralized Republican base which will find it hard to go vote in such a depressing election for them; and, 3) the significant number of energized Democrats that vote straight-party ticket.
There's no doubt that Trey has many things going for him -- he's young, smart, competent, has done a good job over the past four years, and is not the sort of Republican that alienates most Democrats. But this is a bad year to be running as a Republican. If things deteriorate for Fletcher in the final weeks, I would not be surprised if Trey took evasive actions and explicitly distances himself from Fletcher in the final weeks in the paid and earned media.
PREDICTION: I give Trey a slight edge today, but the trend line is not good for him and there's still seven weeks for his re-election hopes to further deteriorate. I'd predict a 53-47 victory for Trey today, but those number could easily reverse themselves before November 6th. I don't know what will happen.
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