BluegrassReport.org

Herald-Leader/WTVQ Polling Was Most Accurate From Top-To-Bottom On Election Day

I thought it was worth comparing how the three local organizations did as far as their polling of Tuesday's ticket. The Herald-Leader/WTVQ, Courier-Journal (Bluegrass Poll) and The Lane Report conducted polling of the ticket (though the C-J only tested three of the six races).

Below is a chart of how each organization did when you allocate undecideds versus the final result. The difference is listed in parentheses:

Race	Final Result	H-L/WTVQ	C-J (Bluegrass Poll)	Lane Report
Governor	Beshear +17	Beshear +16 (1)	Beshear +26 (9)	Beshear +17 (0)
Sec't of State	Grayson +14	Grayson +7 (7)	Grayson +5 (9)	Tied (14)
Attorney General	Conway +21	Conway +21 (0)	Conway +26 (5)	Conway +19 (2)
Auditor	Luallen +18	Luallen +25 (7)	---	Luallen +27 (9)
Treasurer	Hollenbach +15	Hollenbach +17 (2)	---	Hollenbach +26 (11)
Ag. Commissioner	Farmer +28	Farmer +21 (7)	---	Farmer +22 (6)
	AVERAGE	(4.0)	(7.7)	(7.0)

Looks like despite my criticism of their poll's sample the H-L/WTVQ poll was, by far, the most accurate of the group, as they were off an average of just four points in each race. Next best was The Lane Report, followed by the C-J's Bluegrass Poll.

Good job Herald-Leader and WTVQ.

BGR Readers Rock!

You guys were quite impressive with your over/under predictions in the various counties, with the majority going 14-5 with their picks. Even more impressive is that (with the exception of the Northern Kentucky counties), the over/under line was very, very close to actual results, meaning it was a much tougher call for the majority of readers to pick the correct result.

Below are the results. The only counties missed (shaded in red) were the ones that were very close to the actual over/under line, giving you little room for error. Nicely done.

County (Over/Under)	% Predicting OVER	% Predicting UNDER	Fletcher 2003	Fletcher 2007
Franklin (30%)	32%	68%	47%	26.6%
Jefferson (35%)	22%	78%	49%	34.5%
Fayette (40%)	33%	67%	54%	41.0%
Boone (65%)	21%	79%	72%	50.8%
Kenton (60%)	20%	80%	65%	45.1%
Campbell (60%)	16%	84%	63%	44.4%
Warren (50%)	21%	79%	61%	44.9%
Oldham (55%)	28%	72%	68%	51.5%
Daviess (45%)	16%	84%	52%	35.6%
McCracken (47%)	20%	80%	59%	43.4%
Pulaski (62%)	32%	68%	73%	62.3%
Pike (30%)	41%	59%	43%	28.7%
Floyd (20%)	46%	54%	34%	19.4%
Boyd (40%)	31%	69%	42%	34.0%
Shelby (45%)	25%	75%	60%	44.9%
Madison (45%)	12%	88%	59%	47.3%
Hopkins (45%)	19%	81%	57%	36.2%
Christian (45%)	25%	75%	55%	48.2%
Hardin (45%)	25%	75%	60%	48.2%

As far as the over/under on the specific races, you were a little less accurate, but the over/under line was very close to final result in all but Grayson's and Farmer's contests:

Candidate [Office]	Over/Under Line	% Predicting OVER	% Predicting UNDER	Final Result
Fletcher (R) [Gov]	42%	23%	77%	41.3%
Lee (R) [AG]	42%	11%	89%	39.5%
Greenwell (R) [Auditor]	40%	16%	84%	40.8%
Grayson (R) [SOS]	52%	47%	53%	57.1%
Wheeler (R) [Treasurer]	41%	21%	79%	42.5%
Farmer (R) [Ag Comm]	55%	78%	22%	64.0%

Finally, in the question asking which of the following candidates would get the smallest percentage of the vote, you came close:

Linda Greenwell (R) -- 35%
Stan Lee (R) -- 28%
Melinda Wheeler (R) -- 20%
Ernie Fletcher (R) -- 17%

Election Track: DOWNBALLOT RACES

I'll be using this post all night for the downballot races, so feel free to use this as an open thread as well. Just scroll down for updates.

ATTORNEY GENERAL (Jack Conway-D v. Stan Lee-R)

Conway +12 in early absentees
-9% reporting, Conway +35
-12% reporting, Conway +37
--32% reporting, Conway +28
--45% reporting, Conway +25
(8:51 PM) U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) is now introducing Jack Conway at the Democratic Victory Party, to accept his victory!
FINAL RESULT: Conway (D) 60.5%, Lee (R) 39.5%

AUDITOR (Crit Luallen-D vs. Linda Greenwell-R)

Luallen +14 in early absentees
-9% reporting, Luallen +27
-12% reporting, Luallen +29
--32% reporting, Luallen +25
--45% reporting, Luallen +23
(8:29 PM) CRIT IS NOW MAKING HER VICTORY SPEECH.
FINAL RESULT: Luallen (D) 59.2%, Greenwell (R) 40.8%

SECRETARY OF STATE (Bruce Hendrickson-D vs. Trey Grayson-R)

-Grayson +1 in early absentees
-1% reporting, Hendrickson +1
-9% reporting, Grayson +10
-12% reporting, Grayson +8
--32% reporting, Grayson +9
--45% reporting, Grayson +13 (nice work, Trey)
(9:51 PM) Trey just gave his victory speech. Congrats to Trey. While I wanted to see Dems win this seat, it's hard to be too upset about Trey winning. He's one of the good guys. I just wish he had a D after his name!
FINAL RESULT: Grayson (R) 57.1%, Hendrickson (D) 42.9%

STATE TREASURER (Todd Hollenbach-D vs. Melinda Wheeler-R)

-Hollenbach +5 in early absentees
-9% reporting, Hollenbach +26
-12% reporting, Hollenbach +28
--32% reporting, Hollenbach +21
--45% reporting, Hollenbach +19
HOLLENBACH IS MAKING HIS VICTORY SPEECH RIGHT NOW.
FINAL RESULT: Hollenbach (D) 57.5%, Wheeler (R) 42.5%

AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER (David L. Williams-D vs. Richie Farmer-R)

-Farmer +30 in early absentees
-9% reporting, Farmer +24
-12% reporting, Farmer +21
--32% reporting, Farmer +25
--45% reporting, Farmer +27
(8:33 PM) FARMER IS GIVING HIS VICTORY SPEECH AT A VERY ECHO-Y REPUBLICAN PARTY ELECTION NIGHT EVENT.
FINAL RESULT: Farmer (R) 64.0%, Williams (D) 36.0% 

Projections: Governor's Race (Beshear 61, Fletcher 39) **REVISITED**

This post was originally published on October 17, so I thought I'd trot it out for your thoughts and analysis on this Election Day, particularly as far as how things are looking in your own county.

Finally, this is your last chance to offer your final predictions for tonight's election.

Here are my final numbers:

• Governor: Beshear (D) 61 -- Fletcher (R) 39
• Attorney General: Conway (D) 62 -- Lee (R) 38         
• Auditor: Luallen (D) 63 -- Greenwell (R) 37
• Treasurer: Hollenbach (D) 58 -- Wheeler (R) 42
• Secretary of State: no prediction -- too close to call
• Agriculture Commissioner: Farmer (R) 56 -- Williams (D) 42

.....................................................................................................

With 20 days until Election Day, and with the dynamics having largely played out in the governor's race, I think it's time to start making some projections on how things are likely to end-up on November 6th. (Note: for those of you who like getting into the weeds with data and numbers, you'll love this. The rest of you will probably glaze-over.)

I spent the past weeks looking at historical election data from some selected statewide races over the past decade to better understand the voters in the various counties. In particular, I pulled out statewide data from President Bush's (R) big margin in 2004, President Clinton's (D) narrow victory in 1996, Governor Fletcher's (R) 10-point win in 2003, and Jonathan Miller's (D) 12-point victory in 2003.

I picked these four races because they showed a broad range of the voters' behavior in each county over a period of a decade. For example, I picked Miller because he was the one Democrat that won handily in 2003, a year when the Republican wind blew very strongly. Miller's numbers provide a soft outer limit of how much support a Democrat could get in the various counties in such an election. Conversely, Bush's 2004 victory should provide an outer limit on the other side of the divide. Granted, counties have changed a great deal over a decade, so this is not science, but simply a rough sketch of counties have behaved in recent statewide elections.

As far as selecting counties, it turns out that if you look at the block of voters from the state's 20 largest counties -- but remove Laurel (#14) for Shelby (#28) -- not only do they account for almost exactly half of the registered voters but, as a group, they remarkably mimic both the statewide voter registration breakdown as well as the ultimate statewide results in these elections. Regardless of whether you're looking at the 1996 presidential, 2004 presidential, or 2003 gubernatorial elections, those 20 counties have been right on target.

So, let's take a look at those 20 counties. The number next to the county names is the current voter registration breakdown between just Democrats and Republicans. I omitted independent voters to get a cleaner gauge of how the counties are registered, versus how they've behaved on Election Day.

Finally, I've offered my projections on how I think the gubernatorial race will play-out in each county. While I think Beshear will outperform Miller's 2003 performance (when he won by 12) across the state, I think he will blow-out Fletcher in the Louisville media market given the Northup primary support and the polling which shows Fletcher trailing by vast margins in the region.

Using the single assumption that turnout in each of these counties will be exactly the same as the 2003 general election (by party), these projections would have Steve Beshear (D) defeating Governor Fletcher (R) by a 60.9% to 39.1% margin on Election Day, a margin that should mimic the statewide numbers if correct.

So, that's my on-the-record projections. How about yours? How do you think the various counties will vote next month? What's your projection of the final outcome?

While this is not offered as a scientific analysis of the race, I think looking at the history of some different elections provide us with enough information to make some assumptions.

Have fun.

County (%R/%D)	Bush v. Kerry (2004)	Dole v. Clinton (1996)	Fletcher v. Chandler (2003)	Koenig v. Miller (2003)	Fletcher v. Beshear (2007)
Boone (58/42)	72/28	64/36	72/28	70/30	63/37
Boyd (35/65)	53/47	42/58	42/58	38/62	37/63
Bullitt (38/62)	68/32	53/47	59/41	49/51	45/55
Campbell (49/51)	64/36	58/42	63/37	60/40	57/43
Christian (32/68)	67/33	55/45	55/45	48/52	45/55
Daviess (32/68)	62/38	51/49	52/48	43/57	41/59
Fayette (41/59)	53/47	50/50	54/46	38/62	37/63
Floyd (9/91)	37/63	25/75	34/66	19/81	16/84
Franklin (19/81)	51/49	39/61	47/53	28/72	26/74
Hardin (41/59)	68/32	53/47	60/40	49/51	44/56
Hopkins (24/76)	66/34	47/53	57/43	44/56	42/58
Jefferson (36/64)	49/51	44/56	49/51	39/61	29/71
Kenton (50/50)	66/34	60/40	65/35	63/37	58/42
McCracken (29/71)	62/38	45/55	59/41	49/51	44/56
Madison (41/59)	62/38	53/47	59/41	41/59	42/58
Oldham (58/42)	70/30	63/37	68/32	58/42	54/46
Pike (22/78)	47/53	34/66	43/57	31/69	26/74
Pulaski (71/29)	77/23	69/31	73/27	63/37	59/41
Shelby (38/62)	67/33	53/47	60/40	45/55	44/56
Warren (39/61)	64/36	58/42	61/39	50/50	48/52
Counties Total (39/61)	58/42	49/51	55/45	44/56	39.1/60.9
Statewide (39/61)	60/40	49.5/50.5	55/45	43/57	?

(One final note: As I did with the voter registration breakdown for the various counties, I removed Ross Perot's 8.7% of the vote in 1996 and only showed the percentage among those voting for either Clinton or Dole in 1996 to again allow for an easier read of the partisan movement in the counties for each election.)

Trey Grayson Update

Two quick things concerning Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) as we head into the final weekend:

First, I thought Mark Hebert's post about the intensity of GOTV efforts in Louisville is noteworthy since there's only one competitive race on the ballot next week -- the one for Secretary of State:

I've never seen an effort like I'm seeing this year to turn out democratic voters, particularly african-american voters in Jefferson County.

The dems know a big turnout in Louisville could result in a sweep of the statewide offices...

This is a real problem for Grayson because the Kentucky Republican Party has been so feeble during this cycle their efforts won't allow him to balance this Democratic GOTV push elsewhere in the state...because they have no comparable GOTV effort themselves (another reminder that this isn't 2003).

Finally, while I've previously laid-out my thoughts as to why I think it's important for Democrats to defeat Grayson next week, I have been admitted a little restrained in going after him. But Joe Sonka over at Blue Grass Roots published a very revealing item on Wednesday that really made me pause for a moment and ask whether Trey is really the moderate he's portrayed:

The final speaker was Secretary of state Trey Grayson .... In his speech, Grayson articulated reasons as to why John Kerry is not a fit candidate for president. Crowd members were reminded of a recent comment in which Kerry said that “W” stood for “wrong.” Grayson retorted, “Let’s think of all the things ‘F’ stands for.”

“Not only is Kerry a flip-flop, but he’s a failure where Kentucky values are concerned.” The secretary went on to describe how Kerry’s votes and statements have been in favor of gun control, abortion and gay marriage -- three ideological stands that run contrary to the beliefs of most Kentuckians.

“Kerry has authored little successful legislation in his career, and he has failed to articulate his vision for Iraq, for the War on Terror and for America,” said Grayson, echoing the sentiment of most conservative ideologues across the United States.

In response, Sonka offers this very relevant question:

So which one is it Trey? Are you a "moderate" Republican who rejects the extremeism of Stan Lee and Co., or are you another God, Guns, and Gays Republican?

Or does it just depend on what direction the wind is blowing that day?

He raises a very good point.

Grayson Keeping Distance From Fletcher During Joint Appearances?

A reader just e-mailed this interesting tidbit on how Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) is trying to keep his distance from Governor Fletcher (R) while appearing with him at campaign events.

Anyone else noticing this?

Mark:

Just got back from a rally on the Fletcher bus tour.  Trey is going to all the rallies that Fletcher has today but he is not on the bus with him.  He is riding in a trail car with J. Todd Inman who is driving Trey around.  Stan Lee and the Governor are on the bus together but not Trey.  How pompous can Trey be to show up at the rallies but not get on the bus with him between stops.  This is surely costing him voters in WKY as many Republicans are grumbling about it.  This is not good for him given how close the election is.  He lost a few Republican voters when people noticed this. 

In Trey's defense, I'm pretty sure this isn't about him being "pompous" as much as simply not wanting to be seen in the same photo or television shot with Fletcher during the last few days.

Fletcher is going to lose by 20 while Trey has a real race...

Bluegrass Poll: Secretary of State Race Within Margin Of Error, Grayson 40, Hendrickson 36

Yesterday, the Courier-Journal released its Bluegrass Poll numbers for the Secretary of State's race and it confirms what we've learned -- incumbent Trey Grayson (R) has a slim lead over Bruce Hendrickson (D) and having trouble cracking 40 percent, with just 4 days to go. The poll showed 40 percent backing Grayson and 36 percent supporting Hendrickson.

Here is the latest poll track of this race -- three independent polls and one internal poll done on the Democratic side.

Pollster	Date	Tested	Grayson (R)	Hendrickson (D)	Spread
Bluegrass Poll	Oct 26-29	710 LV	40%	36%	Grayson +4%
Dem. Internal	Oct 26-28	---	36%	35%	Grayson +1%
H-L/WTVQ	Oct 22-24	600 LV	45%	39%	Grayson +6%
Lane Report	Sep 13-18	617 LV	37%	37%	---

The Herald-Leader/WTVQ poll is the only I've seen during the entire general election that had Grayson above 40%, but I've discussed at length the concern over the huge undersampling of Democrats in that poll. Note that the H-L poll showed Steve Beshear (D) leading by 15 while SurveyUSA and the Bluegrass Poll had him up 24 and 23 points, respectively, during the same time frame.

This race remains a toss-up.

Where Do Things Stand?

With six days to go until the November 6th election, care to update any of your predictions?

I think there has been some slight movement in the races. After glazing-over from too much polling data and talking with insiders on both sides of the political fence, here's my gut political sense of where things stand if today was Election Day:

• Governor -- This race keeps trending sharply towards Steve Beshear (D) and I suspect even I have underestimated the anti-Fletcher/anti-Republican tide out there. While I previously predicted a 61-39 result, I'd say Beshear is now in the 61-63 percent range, and likely breaking the all-time record margin of votes set by Wallace Wilkinson (D) in 1987. Nevertheless, I'll still stand by Beshear +22 for now.
                 
• Attorney General -- This race began with a fat lead by Jack Conway (D) and it's been slowly growing ever since. The question for me is whether Stan Lee (R) will outperform Fletcher. I say he won't. Conway +23.
              
• Auditor -- While I thought that Fletcher, Lee and Linda Greenwell (R) would see about the same outcome, I now think that incumbent Auditor Crit Luallen (D) has sharply pulled-away in the past month or so and this will be the biggest blowout. Luallen +28.
              
• Treasurer -- This is the only race where the Republican seems to have made-up very modest ground from early polls that had Todd Hollenbach (D) ahead by 20+. Mainly, I think it's a case of solidifying her own party's base, but little else. It's an insignificant and meaningless move, but it should ensure that Melinda Wheeler (R) isn't in the same category as Fletcher, Lee and Greenwell. Hollenbach +16.
              
• Agriculture Commissioner -- This race was never in doubt and incumbent Richie Farmer (R) will win handily, but enough straight-ticket voting Democrats will suppress his final margin. Farmer +14.
           
• Secretary of State -- I'm not trying to be cute or dramatic, but I don't have a clue how this turns out. It's that close. Trey is under 40% and his lead is within the margin of error in the internal polls, and dwindling. That usually means the incumbent won't win, but you certainly can't conclude that about Trey Grayson (R) and this race.
             
  This will come down to turnout dynamics and I suspect the final spread will be anywhere from Grayson +3 to Hendrickson +5. If Fletcher loses by a margin closer to 25 than 20, it's easily to imagine that wave would carry Bruce Hendrickson (D) to victory of up to 4 or 5 points, but if Fletcher keeps it away from the record-breaking territory, and straight-ticket voting isn't as pronounced as some believe, Trey could win by 2 or 3. I have no flipping idea.

Al Cross remarked a while back that not since 1915 has a Republican won statewide office when a Democrat was elected governor. While Farmer is inoculated, history might repeat itself with Grayson.

Your predictions?

Grayson Leads By 6 In Herald-Leader/WTVQ Poll, 45-39

Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) is leading Bruce Hendrickson (D) by a narrow 45% to 39% margin with just 11 days to go in the Herald-Leader/WTVQ poll released this evening. This poll is generally in-line with polling I've seen, but is a little on the high side.

But as I warned yesterday, please be very mindful that this particular poll's methodology is very strongly skewed Republican as it vastly under-sampled Democrats. The sample in this poll was 44% Dem, 39% GOP and 17% Other, even though the average of the last three statewide elections have been 60% Dem, 36% GOP and just 4% Other.

That's an enormous difference and if properly weighted would reverse these numbers into Hendrickson's favor.

Ultimately, I continue to believe the winner of this race will receive no more than about 52% of the vote and I don't have a clue who that will be. Though I do believe that Grayson has a very, very slim lead today but I think the race is a total toss-up, especially considering that Governor Fletcher (R) is headed for a 20-point loss, and he's top-of-the-ticket.

UPDATE (7:40 PM): To give you another reason why this poll is probably freaking-out Grayson, note that the breakdown shows Trey getting support from 15% of Dems, 81% of GOPers, and 42% of Independents. That's a serious problem for him. As I've illustrated time and again, a Kentucky Republican must have support from 25% Dem, 90% GOP and 50% Independents to win in a statewide election (or a combination of weighting to that effect -- remembering that there are a lot more Ds than Rs, so it's very hard to make-up for coming up short with Ds). There's no way around it.

And while I don't doubt Trey may very well hit the mark with GOPers and indies, he's got a mountain to climb to get an additional 10% of Dems since only 18% are undecided. What that boils down to is tough math for him. Though he's only getting 15% support from Dems right now, he will needs to get 56% of undecided Dems (10 of 18) to reach 25% on Election Day.

Could he get there? Of course he can.

But don't get too impressed with this poll showing Trey up 6. This might be the softest lead Trey will ever have in this race.

Democratic Momentum

Jim Pence over at Hillbilly Report produced this excellent compilation of last night's big rally at the Metro Democratic Club in Louisville that is worth watching if you have 10 minutes to spare.

Nice work, Jim.

Fletcher Planning Scorched-Earth Effort Against The Kentucky Republican Establishment For Not Backing Him?

One of the most remarkable things of the past year is the sheer number of prominent Republican insiders who have willingly communicated their frustrations about Governor Fletcher (R) directly to me, allowing BGR to be their vehicle for getting out their viewpoint and dropping interesting insider information on what's going on behind the scenes.

Not surprisingly, that's only increased of late, and I assure you we're not talking about second-level know-nothing local people who are coming forward.

The mosaic that is coming into very clear focus is that:

1. Fletcher doesn't care about anyone on the ticket other than himself;
                      
2. He would be more than happy if Trey Grayson (R) lost his re-election as he never got over Trey's flirting with running against him this year, and;
                     
3. Fletcher appears to be tying sticks of dynamite to key Republican establishments and is prepared to detonate them when he loses, blaming them generally for failing to help him during the Merit scandal and specifically for encouraging and backing Anne Northup's (R) primary challenge, which effectively sealed his general election fate.

Along those lines, I'm told by one top Republican insider that Robbie Rudolph (R), Fletcher's running mate, and Chief of Staff Stan Cave are actively meeting and encouraging Larry Forgy (R) to run in next year's Senate race as an independent. They either know they'd have no chance in a primary challenge, or they simply want to defeat Senator McConnell (R) as revenge for what he's done to Fletcher since the Merit scandal began in May 2005.

And it's hard not to conclude that Fletcher's disgraced, foul-mouthed former mouthpiece, Brett Hall, is ready to assist an independent Forgy bid, given his numerous slams of McConnell and Kentucky Republican Party leadership (before the current B Team came along in June), and his well-known close relationship with Loony Larry.

All this brings me back to Ted Jackson's comment about Fletcher early this year, which seems more true today than ever:

"Ernie Fletcher is the David Koresh of Kentucky Republican politics ... He's boarded the windows and locked the doors and said, 'Take it from us, we'll burn it to the ground.'"

It sure does appear that Fletcher is ready to help bring-down any Republican that failed to help him cover-up his law-breaking and save his political career, and burn down what remains of the Republican Party of Kentucky.

As a Democrat, I couldn't be happier for such fratricide, but even I have a tiny bit of sympathy (just a little) for the talented Kentucky Republicans who worked so hard up to 2003 to create a robust political machine and elect their first governor in 32 years, only to watch one moron, and his incompetent posse, tear down in a few years what took a few decades to fully build. The national climate only added to the disaster, just as the collapsed levees destroyed what the hurricane winds didn't.

Of course, it won't take Kentucky Republicans that long to rebuild, but they'll have to do so without the Governor's Mansion, without their prized 3rd Congressional District seat, with an enormous expansion of the Democratic majority in the state House, with a realistic possibility of losing their state Senate majority, with the possibility that their rising star (Trey Grayson) could lose his seat, with a public that has soured on countless Republican issues, and now with the possibility that Fletcher and his fanatical cronies may try to destroy McConnell's re-election hopes, if he didn't have enough to worry about already.

It's safe to say these are dog days for Kentucky Republicans. The political pendulum sure does wing back and forth, doesn't it?

UPDATE (11:13 AM): No sooner than posting the above did I receive an e-mail from another Republican insider on a related issue concerning this post from yesterday:

Mark,

I don't know if it was your post regarding Northup yesterday that sparked it or, as one of your posters said, the campaign was already in the works . . . but last night I received a phone call from a Republican higher up the party food chain than I.

The caller, knowing I am not a Fletcher fan, was wanting to talk about where we as a party go after his defeat.  Specifically, he was tossing out a few names as potential state party chairs.  He mentioned three names:  Anne Northup, Steve Pence and Jeff Hoover.

As I told him, I think that Pence might be too controversial.  I know many people that were not strong Fletcher people that still didn't like him because they felt he abandoned his duties as Lt. Governor.  I disagree with that but, oh well.  The concept of either Northup or Hoover as party chair was pretty interesting though.

The most interesting part of the call is the fact that the caller's loyalties do not lie with Northup, Hoover or Pence, but with another interested elected official.

Just thought you would be interested in knowing that this rumor may have some legs.

Trey Grayson (R) Launches TV Ad (UPDATED)

Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) has gone on the air today with his first television ad. His bid for re-election is the only competitive race on the November ballot and polling has shown him in a neck-and-neck battle with Bruce Hendrickson (D) with Grayson well under 40%.

The big question now is whether Hendrickson can step-up his fundraising to get out his message and whether Democrats will make a serious push to try to take back this office.

Here is Trey's ad:

UPDATE (2:39 PM): Pat Crowley makes an interesting observation about Trey's ad:

Interesting, party affiliation not mentioned. It wasn't long ago that the Republicans bashed Dems for leaving that out of ads and off campaign mailers. Funny how times change.

Downballot Fundraising Numbers & Analysis

With the campaign finance deadline passed, we now have a chance to see how the other races are stacking up.

SECRETARY OF STATE

Incumbent Trey Grayson (R) reported raising a very impressive $343k for the general election, on top of the $450k or so he raised during the primary, leaving him with more than $300k in cash for the final month. Challenger Bruce Hendrickson (D) raised only $8,815 for the general election.

ANALYSIS: Trey is going to have the ability to communicate a statewide message in the final weeks while Hendrickson won't unless he quickly ramps-up his fundraising since the KDP can match what he raises. While Trey has a tremendous advantage on the money side, it's hard to over-emphasize how difficult the political environment is for Trey with polls showing the race effectively even.

But keep in mind that in 2003 -- when Republicans had a tremendous political wind blowing at their back -- Crit Luallen (D) defeated Linda Greenwell (R) by less than two points despite outraising her $442k to $44k in the general election. I'll still give a slight edge to Trey in November, but the race is very close, Governor Fletcher (R) continues to hurt Trey badly, and I believe Hendrickson will have minimal funds for the stretch run given the polling numbers. Hendrickson can win the race but he'll need to make much more of an effort than this to take advantage of the strong political winds since it's clear Trey has a motor boat and is not planning for favorable winds.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

As impressive as Trey Grayson's (R) $343k haul is, it pales in comparison to the $640k that Jack Conway (D) raised in the past five months, on top of the $400k or so he raised in the primary. He still has an impressive $455k cash balance. Meanwhile, State Rep. Stan Lee (R) has raised a respectable $184k during the general election but has only $35k in cash for the final month.

ANALYSIS: Given the huge disparity in the polls, the very strong anti-Republican tide, Lee's scary fanaticism, and the fact that groups like JCTA are running independent ads on Conway's behalf...these fundraising numbers are devastating. In fact, it's hard to find one measure of strength where Lee is even marginally competitive with Conway. This race has long been over.

AUDITOR

Incumbent Crit Luallen (D) raised $326k for the general election while her opponent, Linda Greenwell (R), has either raised nothing or has not filed her finance report yet (or the KREF has not posted it yet). Regardless, Crit has $95k in cash available for the final month and it's unlikely Greenwell has much, if any, money left.

ANALYSIS: Like Jack Conway (D), Crit has everything working in her favor and, unlike Conway, she's the incumbent. No one has ever considered this a race and Crit will win by an overwhelming margin.

STATE TREASURER

This is the only contest where the fundraising was relatively even -- with Todd Hollenbach (D) raising $50k for the general while Melinda Wheeler (R) raised $54k. Both have about $30k left int he bank for the stretch drive.

ANALYSIS: In 2003, Wheeler might have had a strong chance of winning this seat. But this isn't 2003 and Hollenbach's lead has consistently topped the ticket in the polling done. In a reverse of 2003, Hollenbach could win this seat even if Wheeler had a five-fold advantage in fundraising. Instead, they are even in money and given the environment and Governor Fletcher (R) being top of the Republican ticket, a Hollenbach landslide is widely expected.

COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE

Incumbent Richie Farmer (R) raised $126k during the general election, while David Williams (D) has raised barely 50 dollars. Farmer has $76k in cash left while apparently Williams spent his 50-spot.

ANALYSIS: Um, I think Richie will win.

As Predicted, Fletcher Lied

Remember a post last month about dueling fundraisers that Governor Fletcher (R) and Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) held at the same time in Northern Kentucky? At the time, Trey said he raised $141,000, but Fletcher stated he topped that by hauling in $150,000?

Then I stated, "Five bucks says Fletcher is again exaggerating and Grayson outraised him."

Well, Trey hasn't reported his numbers yet, but we know from Fletcher's report filed yesterday that he was every bit the liar I expected:

What a petty little man. He only raised $103,500, a whole lot less than $150,000. Is there anything our ordained-minister-turned-politician won't lie about?

GOP Fears Fletcher An Anchor (Crowley, Kentucky Enquirer)

Crowley nails it:

GOP Fears Fletcher An Anchor
Environment bad for Grayson
By Patrick Crowley, Kentucky Enquirer

FORT MITCHELL - Trey Grayson thought at one time about taking Ernie Fletcher out; now, Northern Kentucky Republicans are concerned it might be the other way around.

Grayson, the secretary of state and local GOP boy wonder, is in a tough spot. He's running for re-election and hoping to continue making his bones for a run some day at Congress, the U.S. Senate or even the governor's mansion.

But with Gov. Ernie Fletcher and his double-digit deficit in the polls leading the Republican ticket, Grayson supporters - there are plenty here and across the state - are sweating.

Trey Grayson (R) Getting Nervous About Shrinking Lead, Launches Sharp Attack Against Bruce Hendrickson (D)

Today, Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) launched a very sharp, condescending attack against his opponent Bruce Hendrickson (D) and it should tell you everything you need to know about the current state of the race for Secretary of State.

Here are some excerpts from Grayson's attack:

“Bruce Hendrickson once again launched a desperate, baseless attack against Secretary of State Trey Grayson. This time he attacked Grayson's nationally acclaimed civic education initiative.

“I guess you have to be desperate when you can't even receive the endorsement of your own colleagues. He is the only teacher running for office this year, and he still did not receive the endorsement of Kentucky's teachers. Clearly, Kentucky's teachers know who is most qualified to restore civic education to our classrooms, and it is not Bruce Hendrickson.

“Kentucky does not need someone to educate students about civics that can’t even get the facts right in his own press release. Maybe Mr. Hendrickson should begin his civic education plan with a remedial course for himself because he obviously has not been taking notes on the initiatives Secretary Grayson has been leading since 2003.

[...]

“Mr. Hendrickson shows over and over that he can only launch baseless attacks against Secretary Grayson. He shows a pattern of being uninformed about the issues affecting this race. This was obvious to anyone who watched last week's KET debate. It is obvious to anyone who cares about civic education.

So, what did Hendrickson say to warrant such a visceral reaction?

Well, that's the most puzzling thing of all. Hendrickson didn't attack Grayson. He didn't even come close to doing so. All he did was roll-out a press release earlier this week stating that the current civics education outreach program that Grayson has implemented should be expanded to to include high school students. But that's it. See for yourself.

Here's Hendrickson's rollout in its entirety:

Hendrickson Promotes VOTEKY to Promote Civics Outreach

FRANKFORT – Bruce Hendrickson, Democratic Candidate for Secretary of State, today announced his plan to expand the current, inadequate civics education outreach, which has been implemented by his opponent.

The plan – Voter Awareness and Outreach Through Education of Kentucky's Youth (VOTEKY) – is designed to increase citizen participation in government, a vital part of the future success of the Commonwealth.

"The current program, implemented by my Republican opponent, excludes high school students. He thinks you're only entitled to his office's time if you're in college," said Hendrickson.  "As a professional educator I understand that many Kentuckians, by choice or circumstance, do not attend college.  My program will reach out to students while they're in high school to instill the importance of participation in the political process."

Hendrickson's VOTEKY plan for civics education will teach high school students the vital nature of engagement between citizens and government .

"Often, by the time someone attends college, apathy about the importance of the right to vote and participation in the political process has already set in," said Hendrickson.  "Civics education, as it exists now, has sent a clear message to a majority of students in Kentucky that their voice only becomes relevant when they reach a certain educational or social strata."

Part of the Hendrickson plan, will include the creation of statewide student delegates who will serve as ambassadors to state government.

These improvements will result in students having a better understanding and appreciation of government and government having a better understanding of the needs of future voters," Hendrickson said.

Other than the single reference in the third paragraph, Hendrickson's rollout didn't reference Grayson, nor was it negative in any respect other than saying that the program should be expanded. Certainly, there was no reason for the broadside that Grayson launched.

This is the best piece of evidence you can get that shows how concerned Grayson is about the state of the race, now that his lead has shrunk to four points in the latest poll I've seen which came out of the field a week ago.

Not a good sign from the Grayson camp...