BluegrassReport.org

Herald-Leader/WTVQ Polling Was Most Accurate From Top-To-Bottom On Election Day

I thought it was worth comparing how the three local organizations did as far as their polling of Tuesday's ticket. The Herald-Leader/WTVQ, Courier-Journal (Bluegrass Poll) and The Lane Report conducted polling of the ticket (though the C-J only tested three of the six races).

Below is a chart of how each organization did when you allocate undecideds versus the final result. The difference is listed in parentheses:

Race	Final Result	H-L/WTVQ	C-J (Bluegrass Poll)	Lane Report
Governor	Beshear +17	Beshear +16 (1)	Beshear +26 (9)	Beshear +17 (0)
Sec't of State	Grayson +14	Grayson +7 (7)	Grayson +5 (9)	Tied (14)
Attorney General	Conway +21	Conway +21 (0)	Conway +26 (5)	Conway +19 (2)
Auditor	Luallen +18	Luallen +25 (7)	---	Luallen +27 (9)
Treasurer	Hollenbach +15	Hollenbach +17 (2)	---	Hollenbach +26 (11)
Ag. Commissioner	Farmer +28	Farmer +21 (7)	---	Farmer +22 (6)
	AVERAGE	(4.0)	(7.7)	(7.0)

Looks like despite my criticism of their poll's sample the H-L/WTVQ poll was, by far, the most accurate of the group, as they were off an average of just four points in each race. Next best was The Lane Report, followed by the C-J's Bluegrass Poll.

Good job Herald-Leader and WTVQ.

BGR Readers Rock!

You guys were quite impressive with your over/under predictions in the various counties, with the majority going 14-5 with their picks. Even more impressive is that (with the exception of the Northern Kentucky counties), the over/under line was very, very close to actual results, meaning it was a much tougher call for the majority of readers to pick the correct result.

Below are the results. The only counties missed (shaded in red) were the ones that were very close to the actual over/under line, giving you little room for error. Nicely done.

County (Over/Under)	% Predicting OVER	% Predicting UNDER	Fletcher 2003	Fletcher 2007
Franklin (30%)	32%	68%	47%	26.6%
Jefferson (35%)	22%	78%	49%	34.5%
Fayette (40%)	33%	67%	54%	41.0%
Boone (65%)	21%	79%	72%	50.8%
Kenton (60%)	20%	80%	65%	45.1%
Campbell (60%)	16%	84%	63%	44.4%
Warren (50%)	21%	79%	61%	44.9%
Oldham (55%)	28%	72%	68%	51.5%
Daviess (45%)	16%	84%	52%	35.6%
McCracken (47%)	20%	80%	59%	43.4%
Pulaski (62%)	32%	68%	73%	62.3%
Pike (30%)	41%	59%	43%	28.7%
Floyd (20%)	46%	54%	34%	19.4%
Boyd (40%)	31%	69%	42%	34.0%
Shelby (45%)	25%	75%	60%	44.9%
Madison (45%)	12%	88%	59%	47.3%
Hopkins (45%)	19%	81%	57%	36.2%
Christian (45%)	25%	75%	55%	48.2%
Hardin (45%)	25%	75%	60%	48.2%

As far as the over/under on the specific races, you were a little less accurate, but the over/under line was very close to final result in all but Grayson's and Farmer's contests:

Candidate [Office]	Over/Under Line	% Predicting OVER	% Predicting UNDER	Final Result
Fletcher (R) [Gov]	42%	23%	77%	41.3%
Lee (R) [AG]	42%	11%	89%	39.5%
Greenwell (R) [Auditor]	40%	16%	84%	40.8%
Grayson (R) [SOS]	52%	47%	53%	57.1%
Wheeler (R) [Treasurer]	41%	21%	79%	42.5%
Farmer (R) [Ag Comm]	55%	78%	22%	64.0%

Finally, in the question asking which of the following candidates would get the smallest percentage of the vote, you came close:

Linda Greenwell (R) -- 35%
Stan Lee (R) -- 28%
Melinda Wheeler (R) -- 20%
Ernie Fletcher (R) -- 17%

Election Track: DOWNBALLOT RACES

I'll be using this post all night for the downballot races, so feel free to use this as an open thread as well. Just scroll down for updates.

ATTORNEY GENERAL (Jack Conway-D v. Stan Lee-R)

Conway +12 in early absentees
-9% reporting, Conway +35
-12% reporting, Conway +37
--32% reporting, Conway +28
--45% reporting, Conway +25
(8:51 PM) U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) is now introducing Jack Conway at the Democratic Victory Party, to accept his victory!
FINAL RESULT: Conway (D) 60.5%, Lee (R) 39.5%

AUDITOR (Crit Luallen-D vs. Linda Greenwell-R)

Luallen +14 in early absentees
-9% reporting, Luallen +27
-12% reporting, Luallen +29
--32% reporting, Luallen +25
--45% reporting, Luallen +23
(8:29 PM) CRIT IS NOW MAKING HER VICTORY SPEECH.
FINAL RESULT: Luallen (D) 59.2%, Greenwell (R) 40.8%

SECRETARY OF STATE (Bruce Hendrickson-D vs. Trey Grayson-R)

-Grayson +1 in early absentees
-1% reporting, Hendrickson +1
-9% reporting, Grayson +10
-12% reporting, Grayson +8
--32% reporting, Grayson +9
--45% reporting, Grayson +13 (nice work, Trey)
(9:51 PM) Trey just gave his victory speech. Congrats to Trey. While I wanted to see Dems win this seat, it's hard to be too upset about Trey winning. He's one of the good guys. I just wish he had a D after his name!
FINAL RESULT: Grayson (R) 57.1%, Hendrickson (D) 42.9%

STATE TREASURER (Todd Hollenbach-D vs. Melinda Wheeler-R)

-Hollenbach +5 in early absentees
-9% reporting, Hollenbach +26
-12% reporting, Hollenbach +28
--32% reporting, Hollenbach +21
--45% reporting, Hollenbach +19
HOLLENBACH IS MAKING HIS VICTORY SPEECH RIGHT NOW.
FINAL RESULT: Hollenbach (D) 57.5%, Wheeler (R) 42.5%

AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER (David L. Williams-D vs. Richie Farmer-R)

-Farmer +30 in early absentees
-9% reporting, Farmer +24
-12% reporting, Farmer +21
--32% reporting, Farmer +25
--45% reporting, Farmer +27
(8:33 PM) FARMER IS GIVING HIS VICTORY SPEECH AT A VERY ECHO-Y REPUBLICAN PARTY ELECTION NIGHT EVENT.
FINAL RESULT: Farmer (R) 64.0%, Williams (D) 36.0% 

Projections: Governor's Race (Beshear 61, Fletcher 39) **REVISITED**

This post was originally published on October 17, so I thought I'd trot it out for your thoughts and analysis on this Election Day, particularly as far as how things are looking in your own county.

Finally, this is your last chance to offer your final predictions for tonight's election.

Here are my final numbers:

• Governor: Beshear (D) 61 -- Fletcher (R) 39
• Attorney General: Conway (D) 62 -- Lee (R) 38         
• Auditor: Luallen (D) 63 -- Greenwell (R) 37
• Treasurer: Hollenbach (D) 58 -- Wheeler (R) 42
• Secretary of State: no prediction -- too close to call
• Agriculture Commissioner: Farmer (R) 56 -- Williams (D) 42

.....................................................................................................

With 20 days until Election Day, and with the dynamics having largely played out in the governor's race, I think it's time to start making some projections on how things are likely to end-up on November 6th. (Note: for those of you who like getting into the weeds with data and numbers, you'll love this. The rest of you will probably glaze-over.)

I spent the past weeks looking at historical election data from some selected statewide races over the past decade to better understand the voters in the various counties. In particular, I pulled out statewide data from President Bush's (R) big margin in 2004, President Clinton's (D) narrow victory in 1996, Governor Fletcher's (R) 10-point win in 2003, and Jonathan Miller's (D) 12-point victory in 2003.

I picked these four races because they showed a broad range of the voters' behavior in each county over a period of a decade. For example, I picked Miller because he was the one Democrat that won handily in 2003, a year when the Republican wind blew very strongly. Miller's numbers provide a soft outer limit of how much support a Democrat could get in the various counties in such an election. Conversely, Bush's 2004 victory should provide an outer limit on the other side of the divide. Granted, counties have changed a great deal over a decade, so this is not science, but simply a rough sketch of counties have behaved in recent statewide elections.

As far as selecting counties, it turns out that if you look at the block of voters from the state's 20 largest counties -- but remove Laurel (#14) for Shelby (#28) -- not only do they account for almost exactly half of the registered voters but, as a group, they remarkably mimic both the statewide voter registration breakdown as well as the ultimate statewide results in these elections. Regardless of whether you're looking at the 1996 presidential, 2004 presidential, or 2003 gubernatorial elections, those 20 counties have been right on target.

So, let's take a look at those 20 counties. The number next to the county names is the current voter registration breakdown between just Democrats and Republicans. I omitted independent voters to get a cleaner gauge of how the counties are registered, versus how they've behaved on Election Day.

Finally, I've offered my projections on how I think the gubernatorial race will play-out in each county. While I think Beshear will outperform Miller's 2003 performance (when he won by 12) across the state, I think he will blow-out Fletcher in the Louisville media market given the Northup primary support and the polling which shows Fletcher trailing by vast margins in the region.

Using the single assumption that turnout in each of these counties will be exactly the same as the 2003 general election (by party), these projections would have Steve Beshear (D) defeating Governor Fletcher (R) by a 60.9% to 39.1% margin on Election Day, a margin that should mimic the statewide numbers if correct.

So, that's my on-the-record projections. How about yours? How do you think the various counties will vote next month? What's your projection of the final outcome?

While this is not offered as a scientific analysis of the race, I think looking at the history of some different elections provide us with enough information to make some assumptions.

Have fun.

County (%R/%D)	Bush v. Kerry (2004)	Dole v. Clinton (1996)	Fletcher v. Chandler (2003)	Koenig v. Miller (2003)	Fletcher v. Beshear (2007)
Boone (58/42)	72/28	64/36	72/28	70/30	63/37
Boyd (35/65)	53/47	42/58	42/58	38/62	37/63
Bullitt (38/62)	68/32	53/47	59/41	49/51	45/55
Campbell (49/51)	64/36	58/42	63/37	60/40	57/43
Christian (32/68)	67/33	55/45	55/45	48/52	45/55
Daviess (32/68)	62/38	51/49	52/48	43/57	41/59
Fayette (41/59)	53/47	50/50	54/46	38/62	37/63
Floyd (9/91)	37/63	25/75	34/66	19/81	16/84
Franklin (19/81)	51/49	39/61	47/53	28/72	26/74
Hardin (41/59)	68/32	53/47	60/40	49/51	44/56
Hopkins (24/76)	66/34	47/53	57/43	44/56	42/58
Jefferson (36/64)	49/51	44/56	49/51	39/61	29/71
Kenton (50/50)	66/34	60/40	65/35	63/37	58/42
McCracken (29/71)	62/38	45/55	59/41	49/51	44/56
Madison (41/59)	62/38	53/47	59/41	41/59	42/58
Oldham (58/42)	70/30	63/37	68/32	58/42	54/46
Pike (22/78)	47/53	34/66	43/57	31/69	26/74
Pulaski (71/29)	77/23	69/31	73/27	63/37	59/41
Shelby (38/62)	67/33	53/47	60/40	45/55	44/56
Warren (39/61)	64/36	58/42	61/39	50/50	48/52
Counties Total (39/61)	58/42	49/51	55/45	44/56	39.1/60.9
Statewide (39/61)	60/40	49.5/50.5	55/45	43/57	?

(One final note: As I did with the voter registration breakdown for the various counties, I removed Ross Perot's 8.7% of the vote in 1996 and only showed the percentage among those voting for either Clinton or Dole in 1996 to again allow for an easier read of the partisan movement in the counties for each election.)

And They Wonder Why They Can't Get Elected Statewide

Joe Gerth had this tidbit in the Courier-Journal's political blog:

At a campaign rally at the Kentucky Horse Park tonight in Lexington, Fletcher running mate Robbie Rudolph may have implied the Democratic ticket was gay when he asked the crowd, "Do you want a couple of San Francisco treats or do you want to reelect Gov. Ernie Fletcher?"

Attorney General candidate Stan Lee referred to Beshear and Mongiardo as "San Francisco treats" as well.

What's amazing to me is that Rudolph is such a political Neanderthal that he thinks such childish and bigoted comments are going to move any of those crucially needed Democrats and Independents to their side. But then Rudolph is about to be 0 for 2 since 2003 in trying to get the voters to elect him their lieutenant governor.

Meanwhile, we've long realized that Stan Lee is a political moron, so it's no big surprise that he thinks such a tactic is the preferred route towards getting elected. Like Rudolph, Lee will also remain winless in statewide elections.

Thank the good Lord for that.

Where Do Things Stand?

With six days to go until the November 6th election, care to update any of your predictions?

I think there has been some slight movement in the races. After glazing-over from too much polling data and talking with insiders on both sides of the political fence, here's my gut political sense of where things stand if today was Election Day:

• Governor -- This race keeps trending sharply towards Steve Beshear (D) and I suspect even I have underestimated the anti-Fletcher/anti-Republican tide out there. While I previously predicted a 61-39 result, I'd say Beshear is now in the 61-63 percent range, and likely breaking the all-time record margin of votes set by Wallace Wilkinson (D) in 1987. Nevertheless, I'll still stand by Beshear +22 for now.
                 
• Attorney General -- This race began with a fat lead by Jack Conway (D) and it's been slowly growing ever since. The question for me is whether Stan Lee (R) will outperform Fletcher. I say he won't. Conway +23.
              
• Auditor -- While I thought that Fletcher, Lee and Linda Greenwell (R) would see about the same outcome, I now think that incumbent Auditor Crit Luallen (D) has sharply pulled-away in the past month or so and this will be the biggest blowout. Luallen +28.
              
• Treasurer -- This is the only race where the Republican seems to have made-up very modest ground from early polls that had Todd Hollenbach (D) ahead by 20+. Mainly, I think it's a case of solidifying her own party's base, but little else. It's an insignificant and meaningless move, but it should ensure that Melinda Wheeler (R) isn't in the same category as Fletcher, Lee and Greenwell. Hollenbach +16.
              
• Agriculture Commissioner -- This race was never in doubt and incumbent Richie Farmer (R) will win handily, but enough straight-ticket voting Democrats will suppress his final margin. Farmer +14.
           
• Secretary of State -- I'm not trying to be cute or dramatic, but I don't have a clue how this turns out. It's that close. Trey is under 40% and his lead is within the margin of error in the internal polls, and dwindling. That usually means the incumbent won't win, but you certainly can't conclude that about Trey Grayson (R) and this race.
             
  This will come down to turnout dynamics and I suspect the final spread will be anywhere from Grayson +3 to Hendrickson +5. If Fletcher loses by a margin closer to 25 than 20, it's easily to imagine that wave would carry Bruce Hendrickson (D) to victory of up to 4 or 5 points, but if Fletcher keeps it away from the record-breaking territory, and straight-ticket voting isn't as pronounced as some believe, Trey could win by 2 or 3. I have no flipping idea.

Al Cross remarked a while back that not since 1915 has a Republican won statewide office when a Democrat was elected governor. While Farmer is inoculated, history might repeat itself with Grayson.

Your predictions?

Latest Internal Polling: Grayson 36, Hendrickson 35

I just learned last evening that the latest Democratic internal polling now shows Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) with an insignificant 36 percent to 35 percent lead over Bruce Hendrickson (D) with just seven days to go. (Funny what happens when you get a properly weighted poll, unlike what we got last week.)

While I'm not prepared to predict Grayson is going to lose, there is nothing good about polling which has shown him unable to reach 40 percent and falling, despite a few weeks of statewide television. This is the sole competitive race on the ballot and the dynamics sure seem to be favoring Hendrickson's in these final days, especially as Governor Fletcher (R) seems more and more likely to lose by about 20 points.

Hard to imagine what is going to motivate Republican voters to turnout on Election Day simply to try to save Trey. It's not hard to realize why Democrats are energized and likely to turnout in good numbers to oust the current incompetent and corrupt regime.

It sucks to be Trey right now.

Democratic Momentum

Jim Pence over at Hillbilly Report produced this excellent compilation of last night's big rally at the Metro Democratic Club in Louisville that is worth watching if you have 10 minutes to spare.

Nice work, Jim.

Was Northup Prophetic?

Recall this February comment by former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R):

"The current governor has no chance of winning re-election," Northup said. "There's more to lose ... for people who will be down the ticket, like Trey Grayson."

I raise it because I'm told the latest internal polling received in the past 24 hours has Grayson leading Bruce Hendrickson (D) within the margin of error with about one-third still undecided, and this was after he was on television for a week. Since the last poll, Grayson has gained just one point. Clearly, there appears to be just one competitive race with just 12 days to go.

Republicans may rue the day they ignored Northup's warning.

Bunning Thinks Grayson, Farmer Face Tough Races For Re-Election (Ellis, CNHI)

Lord knows that I don't often agree with U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning's (R) political assessment, but I think he's right on target with this one:

Bunning Thinks Grayson, Farmer Face Tough Races For Re-Election
Ronnie Ellis, CNHI News Service

Jim Bunning thinks Republican incumbent Secretary of State Trey Grayson has a tough battle for re-election with Gov. Ernie Fletcher at the top of the ticket and trailing badly in the polls – and incumbent Republican Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer might have problems, too.

...Bunning said he expects a lot of Democrats to vote straight tickets in this year’s election and that could hurt Grayson. He called Grayson a “dear friend” and said he would campaign for him at any time but that he hasn’t yet been asked. But he faces a tough race, Bunning said.

...“In fact, I think Richie Farmer has a tough race and I would’ve never thought that possible,” Bunning said.

Stan Lee (R) -- An Attorney General For Some

When I saw this quote by the Republicans' frighteningly fanatical nominee for attorney general -- Stan Lee (R) -- it made me wonder whether Lee has even a clue about what an attorney general does or the responsibilities of that office? Seems like Lee would be better off leading the loons at the Kentucky Family Foundation:

"If you want an attorney general who has a documented record of protecting the unborn, to protect traditional marriage, to protect military families … then I ask for your vote," Lee said.

Fortunately, few Kentuckians seem to have any appetite for the theocracy and false morality that Lee would like to bring to the office of the state's top law enforcement officer. 

And, once again, Kentucky Republicans demonstrate that they would rather nominate their most unelectable candidate for attorney general than put forth a candidate that 1) could adequately do the job and 2) the voters would find acceptable. Thankfully, Lee is headed for a 20-point loss.

I guess I shouldn't complain too much. Democrats should be thrilled that the best the Republicans have to offer this year for the state's top four jobs are Ernie Fletcher, Robbie Rudolph, Stan Lee, and Linda Greenwell.

What an utter catastrophe for them.

(P.S. -- In the immortal words of Green Day, do you think Lee ever gives himself the creeps?)

UPDATE (9:08 AM): kentondem1 makes an excellent point about Lee's rank hypocrisy:

Mark, there should be an asterisk after "protecting the unborn". We all know about the 'except when representing an Insurance Company' clause. In fairness to Stan Lee, you should have noted this "exception". :)

Nothing More Needs To Be Said...

In an AP profile on the Republicans' frighteningly fanatical nominee for attorney general -- Stan Lee (R) -- the equally scary State Rep. Joe Fischer (R) offered one sentence that says all we need to know about what life would be like with Lee as the state's top law-enforcement officer:

Fischer said Lee would be an outstanding attorney general.

"If he believes that the state law is constitutional, he will defend it without hesitation, whether he liked the law or not," Fischer said.

"If he believes"? Hmmm. I didn't realize that the attorney general was given that sort of discretion when it came to doing his job.

Frankly, nothing more needs to be said. That said more about Lee than anything I could ever offer.

AG Nominee Stan Lee's (R) Other Agenda

Sometimes during a heated debate a candidate blurts out a statement that really reveals who they are and the priorities they would bring to office if elected. One such episode occurred in this week's attorney general debate on KET between Jack Conway (D) and Stan Lee (R).

While we're all too familiar with Lee's scary brand of fanaticism, we saw another frightening side of Lee during the debate when he made clear that Kentucky consumers would take a back seat if he's elected attorney general:

"I understand that business needs to have a free rein in society. They need to be able to function without being over-regulated."

How frightening is that statement?

The Courier-Journal took Lee to task over this comment a few days ago in a very strong editorial:

A Poor Role Model

...Mr. Lee clearly thinks it's the big boys in the corporate boardrooms who need a friend in Frankfort. He said, "I understand that business needs to have a free rein in society. They need to be able to function without being over-regulated."

Mr. Lee is no "free rein" chicken, fearful of opposing the corporate interests. He really believes it's they, not the rest of us, who are threatened, by Big Government intrusion.

He apparently sees eye to eye with President Bush, and especially Vice President Dick Cheney, in their effort to undercut longstanding safety, quality and environmental regulation -- an approach that has thrilled their corporate contributors and buddies while jeopardizing American workers and consumers. Even a federal bench packed with conservative appointees has acted to stop some of the corporate coddling.

On everything from food safety to workplace safety, the Bush administration has been corporate America's friend, and everyday Americans' steadfast enemy. As the Center for American Progress described it earlier this year, "On the day Bush was sworn in, then-chief of staff Andrew Card issued a memo that, in an unprecedented move, put a two-month freeze on final rules across the government that had not yet gone into effect." The Bush team then put industry insiders in charge. And it's been business first, ever since.

Now Stan Lee wants to bring that approach to Kentucky.

Jack Conway (D) On Air With Two Spots

Attorney General nominee Jack Conway (D) has just launched two television spots that are running across the state. The first one, Seeds, is playing heavily in Western Kentucky. The second one, Tough Ideas, is running in Louisville, Lexington and the eastern part of the state.

Seeds:

Tough Ideas:

Downballot Fundraising Numbers & Analysis

With the campaign finance deadline passed, we now have a chance to see how the other races are stacking up.

SECRETARY OF STATE

Incumbent Trey Grayson (R) reported raising a very impressive $343k for the general election, on top of the $450k or so he raised during the primary, leaving him with more than $300k in cash for the final month. Challenger Bruce Hendrickson (D) raised only $8,815 for the general election.

ANALYSIS: Trey is going to have the ability to communicate a statewide message in the final weeks while Hendrickson won't unless he quickly ramps-up his fundraising since the KDP can match what he raises. While Trey has a tremendous advantage on the money side, it's hard to over-emphasize how difficult the political environment is for Trey with polls showing the race effectively even.

But keep in mind that in 2003 -- when Republicans had a tremendous political wind blowing at their back -- Crit Luallen (D) defeated Linda Greenwell (R) by less than two points despite outraising her $442k to $44k in the general election. I'll still give a slight edge to Trey in November, but the race is very close, Governor Fletcher (R) continues to hurt Trey badly, and I believe Hendrickson will have minimal funds for the stretch run given the polling numbers. Hendrickson can win the race but he'll need to make much more of an effort than this to take advantage of the strong political winds since it's clear Trey has a motor boat and is not planning for favorable winds.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

As impressive as Trey Grayson's (R) $343k haul is, it pales in comparison to the $640k that Jack Conway (D) raised in the past five months, on top of the $400k or so he raised in the primary. He still has an impressive $455k cash balance. Meanwhile, State Rep. Stan Lee (R) has raised a respectable $184k during the general election but has only $35k in cash for the final month.

ANALYSIS: Given the huge disparity in the polls, the very strong anti-Republican tide, Lee's scary fanaticism, and the fact that groups like JCTA are running independent ads on Conway's behalf...these fundraising numbers are devastating. In fact, it's hard to find one measure of strength where Lee is even marginally competitive with Conway. This race has long been over.

AUDITOR

Incumbent Crit Luallen (D) raised $326k for the general election while her opponent, Linda Greenwell (R), has either raised nothing or has not filed her finance report yet (or the KREF has not posted it yet). Regardless, Crit has $95k in cash available for the final month and it's unlikely Greenwell has much, if any, money left.

ANALYSIS: Like Jack Conway (D), Crit has everything working in her favor and, unlike Conway, she's the incumbent. No one has ever considered this a race and Crit will win by an overwhelming margin.

STATE TREASURER

This is the only contest where the fundraising was relatively even -- with Todd Hollenbach (D) raising $50k for the general while Melinda Wheeler (R) raised $54k. Both have about $30k left int he bank for the stretch drive.

ANALYSIS: In 2003, Wheeler might have had a strong chance of winning this seat. But this isn't 2003 and Hollenbach's lead has consistently topped the ticket in the polling done. In a reverse of 2003, Hollenbach could win this seat even if Wheeler had a five-fold advantage in fundraising. Instead, they are even in money and given the environment and Governor Fletcher (R) being top of the Republican ticket, a Hollenbach landslide is widely expected.

COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE

Incumbent Richie Farmer (R) raised $126k during the general election, while David Williams (D) has raised barely 50 dollars. Farmer has $76k in cash left while apparently Williams spent his 50-spot.

ANALYSIS: Um, I think Richie will win.

The Rank Hypocrisy Of Stan Lee, The Republicans' Fanatical Nominee For Attorney General

Hypocrisy doesn't get much worse than this.

We all know how State Rep. Stan Lee (R) -- the Republicans' frighteningly fanatical nominee for attorney general -- is one of the biggest public backers of fetal homicide legislation in the legislature, which passed legislation a few years ago that allows the state to charge an individual with a separate crime for terminating a fetus during the commission of an act that injures or kills a pregnant woman. (In fact, this is one issue where I actually agree with Lee, since I view the abortion debate as being an issue of the woman's choice, not someone else's killing of her fetus).

But what's so shameful is how Lee can't seem to practice what he preaches.

I'm sure most of you remember the tragic accident in a Lexington parking garage in 2006 when a concrete panel fell on top of Stephanie Hufnagel, killing her and her eight-month old fetus, Sydney. Later that year, a lawsuit was filed by Hufnagel's spouse, Brian, for damages. Among them was a claim for damages involving the "loss of his minor unborn child."

Well, it turns out that Lee is the lawyer for the insurance company of one of the defendants, and is now fighting tooth-and-nail that Mr. Hufnagel should not be able to recover damages for the loss of the unborn fetus.

How convenient, isn't that?

So much for Lee's principled rhetoric. Apparently they're disposable principles when they conflict with his ability to earn more income representing insurance companies trying to deny appropriate compensation for injuries.

Shame, shame, shame.

Jack's Got Your Back

Another excellent radio spot from the Jefferson County Teachers Association (JCTA) which is running heavily throughout western Kentucky reminding voters that Jack Conway (D) will take on the bad guys when he's elected attorney general.

JCTA has done a great job with their upbeat and memorable ads during this cycle, and such a stark contrast to the awful crap that the Republicans continue to ram down the voters' throats.

Download ConwayRadio.mp3

The News Only Gets Worse For Fletcher

Another day, another acknowledgment of the disaster of the Fletcher Administration:

State officials say unemployment rates rose in 61 Kentucky counties between August 2006 and August 2007, dropped in 45 counties and remained the same in 14 others.

But that's what happens when Kentucky ranks 42nd in job growth during Fletcher's term.

An unmitigated disaster.

More On The Race For Attorney General

As we know, the Bluegrass Poll confirmed that Jack Conway (D) appears headed for a landslide victory in 42 days to be Kentucky's next attorney general over the frighteningly fanatical State Rep. Stan Lee (R).

But let's take a look at just a couple of the more telling cross-tabs of the poll.

First, Lee continues to offer the excuse for his deficit that Conway is simply better known than he is:

Lee said that given his low name recognition at the start of the campaign, he was encouraged by his numbers and felt he could overcome the deficit.

"We knew we'd have a real race on our hands when I got into it," he said, noting that Conway spent a lot of money and gained name recognition in a high-profile race against Republican Anne Northup five years ago in the third congressional district.

"It's just a question of getting my name out there," said Lee.

The problem with Lee's excuse is that Lee is actually much better known than Conway in both the 5th and 6th congressional districts, and in both districts Lee trails Conway. In the 5th CD, Conway leads by a 45-27 margin, and in the 6th CD -- Lee's home district -- Conway leads 43-35. So much for that excuse.

Finally, it's noteworthy that even among evangelical or born-again Christians, Conway leads by an impressive 45-30 margin, which is in-line with the poll's overall lead for Conway of 48-27. Seems that even Lee's "base" isn't buying his brand of intolerance and fanaticism.

Very nice.

Click here for the cross-tabs if you'd like to peruse them yourself.

Bluegrass Poll: Jack Conway (D) Leads Stan Lee (R) By 21 To Be Next Attorney General

The consistency in the polling for the general election has been pretty remarkable across the board.

This afternoon we learn that the Courier-Journal's Bluegrass Poll has Jack Conway (D) blasting the Republican's lunatic fringe nominee for attorney general -- State Rep. Stan Lee (R) -- by a 48 percent to 27 percent margin.

Here's the updated track of all independent polling done in that race:

Poll	Date	Tested	Conway-D	Lee-R	Spread
Average	---	---	39.7%	23.3%	Conway +16.4
Bluegrass Poll	9/13-18	667 LV	48%	27%	Conway +21
H-L/WTVQ	9/10-13	600 LV	43%	26%	Conway +17
Lane Report	7/25-8/2	600 LV	28%	17%	Conway +11

You gotta like that trend if you're Conway.

What's equally amazing is that when you allocate the undecideds in these three polls, Conway leads 64-36 (Bluegrass), 62-38 (H-L/WTVQ), and 62-38 (Lane Report).

Can you say landslide?