BluegrassReport.org

Did God Lie?

Just ran across this gem from the beginning of last year about the conversation that Rev. Pat Robertson -- who recently endorsed Rudy Giuliani's (R) presidential bid -- had with God:

Robertson said, “Bush is going to strengthen in 2006. The fall elections will be inconclusive, but the outcome of the war and the success of the economy will leave Republicans in charge…. And Alito is gonna get confirmed. I believe another liberal judge is going to retire, step down from the Court; we’ll have another opening there. The war in Iraq is going to come to a successful conclusion, and we’ll begin withdrawing troops before the end of the year.”

With the exception of Alito's 58-42 confirmation a few weeks after Robertson's conversation with the Almighty (which most legal observers fully expected), it appears that God lied to Robertson on all other counts.

Is there really any doubt that Robertson is nothing more than a Charlatan?

Kentucky's Clear Blue Shift

One of the recent signs that have made more predict that U.S. Sen. McConnell (R) is in for a rougher re-election fight than expected is the fact that President Bush's (R) job approval numbers in Kentucky have plummeted to a disastrously low 35% approve and 65% disapprove.

Indeed, those numbers do suggest that the man who has proudly defended and advanced the Bush agenda ought to be very concerned. But a closer look at those numbers tell an even more problematic story for McConnell.

You see, while Bush is becoming less popular in Kentucky, he's also getting less popular in the other 49 states, so simply using Bush's plunging numbers in Kentucky only tell part of the story. But where things are much more instructive is to see where Bush has dropped more than elsewhere over the past few years.

When you do that, you'll notice that in only one state (New Mexico) has Bush's job performance tumbled more than it has in Kentucky -- among those states which SurveyUSA has been testing monthly since May 2005 -- when you compare the differences in President Bush's net rating (approval minus disapproval):

State	Nov 2007	May 2005	Diff
New Mexico	-35 (32/67)	-4 (46/50)	-31
Kentucky	-27 (35/62)	+2 (49/47)	-29
California	-44 (26/70)	-15 (39/54)	-29
New York	-54 (22/76)	-25 (35/60)	-29
Minnesota	-30 (34/64)	-2 (47/49)	-28
Massachusetts	-54 (22/76)	-26 (35/61)	-28
Virginia	-32 (33/65)	-6 (44/50)	-26
Kansas	-21 (38/59)	+4 (49/45)	-25
Washington	-35 (31/66)	-10 (42/52)	-25
Oregon	-36 (31/67)	-13 (42/55)	-23
Alabama	-16 (41/57)	+6 (50/44)	-22
Wisconsin	-33 (32/65)	-12 (42/54)	-21
Missouri	-28 (35/63)	-10 (42/52)	-18
Iowa	-33 (32/65)	-17 (39/56)	-16
Ohio	-29 (34/63)	-20 (38/58)	-9
AVERAGE	-33.8	-9.9	-23.9

That - along with the plummeting of new Kentucky Republican voters over the past two years and this month's landslide defeat of Governor Fletcher (R) -- really paints a picture that a political realignment is happening here in a noticeable way and these dynamics couldn't be happening to McConnell at a worse time.

Does that lead me to believe that Kentucky is becoming a Democratic state again? No, I wouldn't go that far.

But I do believe these trends tell us that Kentucky is much more politically comparable to the Midwest swing states than it is to the South, which is how the state seemed to behave for much of the past decade, until around 2005 when we began to see a subtle but steady change in the political attitudes of Kentucky voters, leading to John Yarmuth's (D) defeat of Anne Northup (R) in the 3rd congressional district and this year's defeat of Fletcher and plunging approval numbers for McConnell.

This is why McConnell should be even more concerned and why the environment is right for a serious challenge of both U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis' (R) and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield's (R) congressional seat, as well as the take-back of the state Senate.

(Note: While SurveyUSA has conducted monthly Bush approval tracking in the states since May 2005, about a year ago it narrowed its month survey from all 50 states to 15 states, which is why the above chart only lists those states.)

Another Conservative Program Rejected -- This Time At The Hands Of Conservative Voters

When we look back at this era of politics, one of the narratives I'm certain we'll be discussing is how so many of the core ideas and beliefs of the conservative ideologues of our time were either rejected, proved to be wrong-headed, or simply disastrous experiments.

Be it their desire for pre-emptive war, denial of the effects of global warming, refusal to embrace universal health care, attempts to legislate morality, efforts to rollback regulations on corporate America, attempts to destroy organized labor, etc, we're seeing how wrong they are on so many critical issues.

Case-in-point: yesterday in Utah -- arguably the most conservative state in the country -- voters overwhelmingly repealed the nation's first universal school voucher law that the Utah legislature had enacted last year:

After a multimillion-dollar political campaign that pitted teachers’ unions nationally against school choice advocates, Utah voters yesterday repealed the nation’s first universal voucher law by an overwhelming margin.

With nearly 97 percent of the votes counted, state election results showed that 62 percent of voters rejected the voucher law narrowly enacted earlier this year, in what was Utah’s first “citizens’ veto” referendum in 30 years.

The level of opposition was much greater in the voting public than in the GOP-controlled legislature, which approved the voucher law by a single vote. Had the law been allowed to take effect, it would have provided all public school students with vouchers ranging from $500 to $3,000 a year, depending on family income.

To opponents of vouchers, the rejection was even more impressive coming from voters in a conservative, Republican state. “Taxpayers, no matter their politics, see vouchers as poor public policy,” Anne L. Bryant, the executive director of the Alexandria, Va.-based National School Boards Association, said in a statement.

America is finally coming to its senses and rejecting the disastrous policies enacted and pushed by the Bush Administration and 12 years of Republican Congress. We saw the first sign of it with the 2006 elections and 2008 isn't shaping-up to be any better for them either.

Is this the return of common sense government that provides for the greatest good and not their narrow interests? I'm crossing my fingers.

Cabinet Visits Here Probed (Crowley, Kentucky Enquirer)

The probe of the Bush Administration's efforts to use official government officials to help its most vulnerable Republican candidates (see link) has now expanded to Kentucky's 4th Congress District. What a shock.

Pat Crowley has the story:

Cabinet Visits Here Probed
By Patrick Crowley, Kentucky Enquirer

In the summer of last year, Northern Kentucky Congressman Geoff Davis was popular with White House officials.

Two top members of the Bush administration - Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez and drug czar John Walters - came to Kentucky for high-profile media events with Davis that were paid for by taxpayers.

But a congressional committee is now investigating whether the visits were more about politics and publicity than policy.

[...]

But Walters' visit to Kentucky is part of an investigation by the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. According to documents and statements on the committee's Web site, Chairman Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., is probing whether the White House violated federal laws by trying to politicize the visits.

Waxman has requested documents from, among others, Gutierrez, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and Sara Taylor, who at the time was White House Director of Political Affairs.

Waxman wrote to Taylor that documents the committee has "suggest that White House efforts to politicize the activities of federal agencies may be more widespread than previously known."

"Your memo shows that John Walters, the nation's drug czar, and his deputies traveled at your suggestion to 20 events with vulnerable Republican members of Congress in the months before the 2006 elections," Waxman wrote. "The trips were paid for by federal taxpayers and ... benefited the districts of the Republican members."

Waxman said documents also show that Karl Rove, President Bush's recently departed political and policy adviser, commended the Commerce Department for "going above and beyond the call of duty" in arranging "surrogate appearances by Cabinet members."

Follow The Money

If you're interested in knowing how Kentucky's federal delegation gets its bread buttered, MAPLight.org has an update on the campaign finance breakdown for each of our state's members for the most recently completed cycle.

U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $250,047
ATTORNEY $122,100
PHYSICIAN $91,801
FARMER $74,860
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $62,700
SELF-EMPLOYED $42,850
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $41,250
HUMANA INC $38,877
GRIFFIN INDUSTRIES $38,800
PEABODY ENERGY $35,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $390,848
Retired $242,047
Security brokers & investment companies $234,949
Pro-Israel $173,735
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $168,550
Lobbyists & public relations $147,295
Farmers, in general $121,160
Hospitals $121,100
Physicians $115,177
Coal mining $108,600

U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning (R)

[organizations]
RETIRED $184,175
ATTORNEY $62,770
PHYSICIAN $58,750
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,100
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS $20,000
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $17,050
ASHLAND INC $16,250
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $15,000
FARMER $13,750
RJ REYNOLDS TOBACCO $13,500

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $191,984
Retired $188,875
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $164,199
Security brokers & investment companies $130,243
Other physician specialists $125,800
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $117,949
Lobbyists & public relations $94,516
Physicians $81,750
Pro-Israel $64,900
Life insurance $61,083

U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers (R-KY5)

[organizations]
ATTORNEY $18,000
ADDINGTON ENTERPRISES $17,800
RETIRED $17,450
BEECHFORK PROCESSING $16,000
CONSULTANT $13,850
FIRST NATIONAL BANK $12,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
GEO GROUP $10,000
GENERAL ELECTRIC $10,000
LOCKHEED MARTIN $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $40,700
Engineers - type unknown $28,900
Lobbyists & public relations $25,400
Business services $25,050
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $21,000
Defense areospace contractors $21,000
Civil servant/public employee $20,750
Mining $20,000
Vegetables, fruits & tree nuts $18,900
Retired $17,450

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R-KY4)

[organizations]
RETIRED $191,705
SELF-EMPLOYED $22,882
ATTORNEY $18,900
EMERALD COAL $16,500
INVESTOR $15,050
AMERICAN BANKERS ASSN $15,000
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $14,100
CNG FINANCIAL $12,700
CINTAS CORP $11,600
DRS TECHNOLOGIES $11,200

[interests]
Retired $191,705
Commercial banks & bank holding companies $91,727
Attorneys & law firms $85,900
Insurance agencies, brokers & agents $70,550
Credit agencies & finance companies $53,550
Lobbyists & public relations $52,603
Security brokers & investment companies $49,432
Residential construction $41,800
Coal mining $39,050
Mortgage bankers & brokers $37,550

U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R-KY2)

[organizations]
SELF-EMPLOYED $52,607
RETIRED $38,010
PHYSICIAN $24,060
KINDRED HEALTHCARE $21,350
ATTORNEY $14,800
BROWN-FORMAN CORP $14,499
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE $10,250
AMERICAN PHYSICAL THERAPY ASSN $10,000
AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSN $10,000
PINKERTON TOBACCO $10,000

[interests]
General commerce $57,707
Tobacco & tobacco products $46,850
Physicians $41,060
Retired $38,010
Hospitals $36,600
Other physician specialists $33,450
Attorneys & law firms $31,150
Wine & distilled spirits manufacturing $28,077
Lobbyists & public relations $27,494
Accident & health insurance $21,500

U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield (R-KY1)

[organizations]
RETIRED $33,350
PAIN MANAGEMENT CENTER OF PADUCAH $21,250
PHYSICIAN $21,200
AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP $12,250
NATIONAL CABLE & TELECOMMUNICATIONS ASSN $11,000
AT&T INC $10,000
UNION PACIFIC CORP $10,000
PFIZER INC $10,000
WINE & SPIRITS WHOLESALERS OF AMERICA $10,000
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,000

[interests]
Other physician specialists $76,785
Pharmaceutical manufacturing $38,752
Telephone utilities $35,000
Retired $33,350
Physicians $33,200
Attorneys & law firms $32,100
Railroads $25,600
Tobacco & tobacco products $23,500
Pharmaceutical wholesale $21,250
Liquor wholesalers $20,500

U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (R-KY6)

[organizations]
RETIRED $37,600
ATTORNEY $19,300
BELLSOUTH CORP $10,500
INTL BROTHERHOOD OF ELECTRICAL WORKERS $10,000
NATIONAL ASSN OF REALTORS $10,000
NATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ASSN $10,000
NATIONAL AUTO DEALERS ASSN $10,000
IRONWORKERS UNION $10,000
TEAMSTERS UNION $10,000
FARM CREDIT COUNCIL $10,000

[interests]
Attorneys & law firms $69,924
Construction unions $49,000
Retired $37,600
Manufacturing unions $30,000
Air transport unions $18,700
Farmers, in general $18,550
Express delivery services $15,499
Restaurants & drinking establishments $15,450
Liquor wholesalers $15,000
Banks & lending institutions $14,900

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-KY3)
No data yet

U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R) Tops All 535 Members of Congess In Payday Industry Contributions

Here's another reason why Republicans are going to have an impossible time using gubernatorial nominee Steve Beshear's (D) lobbying for the payday lending industry in the 1990s against him: U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R) leads all members of the U.S. House and Senate in the last election cycle in taking contributions from the industry.

In a comprehensive report recently done by MAPLight.org, Davis is listed in first-place among 435 House members and 100 Senators when it came to money from payday lenders (see page 9). In return for that support, you'll recall Davis' secret effort last year to fight a cap on payday loans to military personnel, at least until journalist John Cheves exposed Davis' effort in a front-page Herald-Leader story. While we knew then that Davis had received a good deal of payday contributions, little did we realize that he was 1st of 535.

Congrats to Geoff Davis for being the payday loan industry's BFF (best friends forever).

Rasmussen Poll: Beshear Leads Fletcher By 16 Points, 51% to 35%

We have a second independent poll now showing Democratic gubernatorial nominee Steve Beshear (D) with a huge lead over Governor Fletcher (R). Today, Rasmussen Reports released its findings which show the race:

Beshear (D) 51%
Fletcher (R) 35%
Other 8%
Not Sure 6%

Last week, Survey USA showed Beshear with a 62% to 34% lead. If you assume the eight percent in the Rasmussen poll that selected "Other" are likely Beshear voters, then the two polls aren't particularly far apart. The fact that Fletcher's support seems stuck, so far, at 34/35 percent is catastrophic for him. While you never say "never" in politics (I remind myself that Rudy Giuliani was a very unpopular mayor on September 10th), it's hard to imagine Fletcher will ever make this race competitive.

Like we saw last year with former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), the voters made-up their minds very early in that contest, and while there were mild fluctuations during the campaign, the outcome was never in doubt. Santorum lost by a 59% to 41% margin. I suspect Fletcher's outcome will be much the same.

The voters have already decided to oust Fletcher and give the Governor's Mansion back to the Democrats, just as they did in 2003 after Governor Patton's (D) poisoned the political environment and the voters thought that Republicans were ready for another chance after 32 years...They were wrong.

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) Not On Karl Rove's Top 20 Target List For 2008

TPMmuckraker has the skinny on a presentation that Karl Rove's deputy (Kentucky's own Scott Jennings) gave to personnel of the General Services Administration (GSA) staff earlier this year and was produced in conjunction with congressional testimony today by its top official. The presentation reveals a number of particularly relevant Kentucky-specific items.

First, one page of Rove's power point was entitled "2008 House Targets: Top 20" and not included on that list was U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D). That's right, John is not considered by Rove as one of their Top 20 targets in 2008. All three of the Indiana seats that Democrats flipped last year are listed, but not Yarmuth.

Here's that page (click image for larger version):

However, U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R) is named on another Rove chart entitled "2008 House GOP Defense" under the column "Secondary Defense". No other Kentucky House seats are mentioned in the presentation.

Additionally, in discussing where the ground game worked and didn't work in 2006 House races, it reveals interesting information concerning KY3 (Northup) and KY4 (Davis).

Apparently, the final polls taken in the 2006 races showed that Anne Northup (R) had a 13-point lead over John Yarmuth (D) (50% to 37%), but lost that race by two points. Meanwhile, Geoff Davis (R) was leading Ken Lucas (D) by just 1-point (44% to 43%) but won his race by seven points.

By the way, the underlying testimony regarding Jennings' efforts with GSA officials is pretty sketchy as well as I suspect we haven't heard the last of it. Seems that Mr. Jennings is finding himself in the national news a little more than he'd like. Recall this recent development.

Here's what TPMmuckraker wrote:

After the presentation, Doan reportedly asked other employees how the agency could help "our candidates." The GSA, remember, is the government's procurement agency, in charge of almost $60 billion each year. All of this seems like a clear violation of the Hatch Act, which prohibits using federal resources to aid political parties.

Click here for Rove's entire 13-page presentation.

Think Progress has great coverage as well.

Lessons From Alaska (LEO)

My political column in this week's LEO reminds us of the lessons from the recent Republican gubernatorial primary in Alaska where the incumbent governor (Frank Murkowski) finished third.

History has a funny way of repeating itself...

Bluegrass Politics: Lessons From Alaska
By Mark Nickolas (LEO)

A year ago in Alaska, the unthinkable happened: unpopular first-term Gov. Frank Murkowski (R) finished third in a three-way Republican primary, ending his re-election hopes. Throughout the campaign, the main argument of Murkowski’s opponents was that he could not win a fall race against the Democratic nominee. (In fact, the Republican nominee, Sarah Palin, won the fall election.)

Here in Kentucky, the same arguments are being used against Gov. Fletcher by his primary Republican opponents, former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup and Paducah businessman Billy Harper.

Earlier this month, the Northup campaign released the findings of an internal poll that shows Fletcher and Northup tied with 39 percent of the primary vote. Harper is at 10 percent.

The results appeared devastating for Fletcher.

Not only was Northup, who had been in the race for all of a week when the poll was taken, one-third less-known by Republicans than Fletcher, but among respondents who were familiar with all three candidates, Northup led Fletcher by nine points.

And to emphasize the point that Fletcher could not defeat a Democratic nominee, the poll also showed that Northup strongly outperformed Fletcher by as many as 15 points against potential Democratic challengers in the fall.

For those closely tracking Fletcher’s political death spiral for the past few years, this was hardly a shock. Fletcher, Kentucky’s first Republican governor in 32 years, long ago lost the confidence of the state’s Republican congressional delegation following his inept handing of the Merit hiring investigation of his administration. Last year, Lt. Gov. Steve Pence (R) refused to run for re-election with him, and a large chunk of the GOP hierarchy has been hoping for a viable alternative ever since, believing he could not defeat even a second-tier Democratic challenger.

But it wasn’t until Northup lost her congressional seat to John Yarmuth (D) that Kentucky Republicans had a top-shelf challenger who might oust an incumbent governor in a primary.

(click here to continue reading column)

Already One Month Late, KDP Has Not Repaid $500,000 Loan

Remember the $500,000 loan that the Kentucky Democratic Party had to take out in September to cover its budget in advance of President Clinton's October fundraiser?

Well, that note was due on January 20, 2007, and guess what? It hasn't been paid-off yet.

In fact, at this weekend's state central committee meeting, KDP Treasurer David Tandy confirmed that the party didn't even have enough cash on hand to cover the loan. According to Pol Watchers, Tandy stated KDP had cash balance of $495,629.06. So, the Finance Committee approved that $250,000 of the $502,989.75 be repaid, for now.

Is anyone really surprised?

The disaster that is KDP continues into 2007...

John Yarmuth (D) and "The Way Down South"

Bob Moser just published a very interesting assessment of whether Democrats can reclaim the South in the latest edition of The Nation.

In it, Moser highlights how U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) became the lone Southern congressional candidate the national Democrats didn't want to support (because his strategy and positions didn't fit their mold of the type of Democrat that could win in the South) but who went on to win his race.

The whole piece is a terrific read, but here's the portion concerning John's victory:

But Dean's approach--both in his campaign and with his new "fifty-state strategy" for the DNC--was hardly a hit with white national party leaders, who complained bitterly about the expense of hiring Democratic organizers, in the words of ex-Clinton adviser Paul Begala, to "wander around Utah and Mississippi and pick their nose." In the 2006 midterms, national Democratic campaign committees shunned the fifty-state approach and backed only a handful of Democrats in the South. The chosen Southerners fit the "Republican Lite" mold to a T: social conservatives who emphasized "fiscal responsibility" and steered clear of calling for troop withdrawals in Iraq. The ideal Southern campaign, agreed Begala and his ilk, was Harold Ford Jr.'s lavishly financed Senate bid in Tennessee. Aiming to "out-Republican" his opponent, Ford spent the campaign bashing "illegals," waving the flag, ridiculing the very notion of gay marriage and calling up a quote from the Bible to address every issue.

Ford's loss was widely chalked up to race-baiting attack ads run by the Republican National Committee. But his defeat--like those of all but one of the Democrats' chosen candidates in the South last year--can also be viewed as a lesson in the limitations of Clintonian compromise. So can the results from the border South state of Kentucky, where self-described "liberal" John Yarmuth--whose pleas for national funds fell on deaf ears--pulled off a startling upset in the state's 3rd Congressional District by running a campaign that was the antithesis of Ford's. "The mistake Democrats have made here over the years is that they never provided a sharp contrast," says Yarmuth, who bested five-term Republican incumbent Anne Northup. "I said from day one, 'Anne and I are 180 degrees apart. If she believes something, I don't.' I was that clear. I wanted the voters to have a real choice and see where they'd go." They went with the frank-talking, antiwar, labor-loving candidate his own party considered too "liberal" to win. Meanwhile, the two party-funded challengers in Kentucky, both staunch social conservatives aiming to join the Blue Dog Coalition in Congress, got their clocks cleaned. "There's a Beltway mentality that succumbs too much to conventional punditry," says Yarmuth. "The voters are way ahead of the Democrats and way ahead of Washington."

Say what you will about John's politics, but his refusal to smooth-over differences with Northup so as to not alienate some more conservative Democrats was an exceptionally smart, and ballsy, move. John offered the voters a very clear contrast and didn't try to sugar-coat his positions or embrace some aspects of the war in Iraq out of some fear that he would be perceived as anti-military.

Contrast that to the campaign of former U.S. Rep. Ken Lucas (D) who said the war was a mistake but refused to offer any meaningful difference on how to proceed with his opponent U.S. Rep. Geoff Davis (R). Lucas lost to Davis by eight points.

While I admit it's not fair to compare the voters of Yarmuth's swing district to those in Lucas' conservative district, I do think Lucas hurt himself by not offering a clear contrast on the war. I can't help but conclude that the 5% that the libertarian candidate (Brian Houillion) got in the 4th Congressional District was largely the result of the anti-war voters feeling like they had no real option. In contrast, the two third-party candidates in the 3rd Congressional District received a total of 1.2%, less than one-fourth of Houillion's support, in race where voters had a clear anti-war option among the major party candidates.

Anyway, I encourage you to read the whole piece.

49% View Speaker Pelosi Favorably; McConnell At 21%

The Hill has this note on Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's (D) strong favorable rating so far in this Congress, compared to her counterparts, including Senate Minority Leader McConnell (R).

Doesn't appear that the public was moved by the Republican effort to demonize Pelosi just a few months ago:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is by far the most favorably viewed congressional leader, according to a poll released Monday.

Forty-nine percent of voters have a positive view of Pelosi, up six percent from a month ago, according to the Rasmussen poll. Taking into account her 40 percent unfavorable mark, Pelosi is the only member of the congressional leadership of either party with a higher favorable rating than unfavorable.

Pelosi's popularity stands in stark contrast with Republican campaign efforts last year that tried to raise concerns among voters that a Speaker Pelosi would imprint her "San Francisco liberal" values on the House. Asked about that strategy in an interview with The Hill last month, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) laughed and said, "Sure worked, didn't it?"

A month into the new Congress, voters are seeing Pelosi in a much more favorable light than her counterpart, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), who is viewed favorably by 14 percent of voters and unfavorably by 34 percent. House Minority Whip Roy Blunt's (R-Mo.) numbers are similar.

Pelosi is also more popular than Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who has a 29 percent favorability rating, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who has a 21 percent favorability rating.

A Little More Hypocrisy From Marcus Carey

Former 4th District Republican Party chairman and Supreme Court candidate Marcus Carey penned an op-ed in yesterday's Kentucky Enquirer where he effectively blames the media for his lopsided loss to Kentucky Supreme Court Justice Wil Schroder in November:

It is a Christian principle that we should love one another. Pat Crowley's excitement is a symptom of our society's decline in respect for those who are true believers... The glitz, the glamour and the gaffes capture the headlines. Accusations and criticism feed a sadistic craving for the sensational...We crane our necks to see if the one being attacked will survive, recover and inflict even greater harm in return. In the end we delight when someone gets devoured.

Nevermind that Republican Chairman Carey happily ripped into congressional candidate Nick Clooney (D) in 2004 forcing his son, George Clooney, to write his own op-ed responding to Carey's attacks. Not satisfied with leaving it there, Carey responded to Clooney's response with another round of attacks.

Fortunately, the voters in November, by a 64% to 36% margin, weren't buying what Carey was selling and now he's left to complain, hypocritically, that we shouldn't be so hard on candidates...just like he was in 2004.

What It Means To Be A Bruce Lunsford Democrat

Amazing. This just popped up in the latest campaign finance report. I had missed it before.

Is this what Bruce Lunsford (D) meant when he said today that he's lived his life as a Democrat since his 2003 endorsement of Ernie Fletcher (R)?

This was a month before the 2006 election.

What a joke.

State Of The Nation On The Eve Of The State Of The Union

Tomorrow night, President Bush will deliver the State of the Union address and, according to the latest Newsweek poll, he'll be speaking to an audience that no longer trusts him or the Republican Party on handling the affairs of the country.

Here are some excerpts from the poll:

• Bush’s approval rating at its lowest point in the history of the poll (31 percent);
                    
• Bush’s call for a “surge” in troops is opposed by 68 percent of Americans and supported by only 26 percent while 46 percent want to see American troops pulled out “as soon as possible.” Bush received his lowest ratings so far for his handling of the war (24 percent) and terrorism (41 percent);
                       
• On U.S. policy in Iraq, 55 percent trust the Democratic-controlled Congress versus just 32 percent who trust Bush;
                       
• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) is viewed favorably (36 percent to 23 percent), and by a nearly two-to-one margin (43 percent to 24 percent) that believes that Democrats are keeping promises they made during the 2006 campaign;
                       
• In the 2008 presidential race, a generic Democratic presidential candidate has a 21-point lead over an unnamed GOP challenger. The race becomes much closer, however, when voters are asked to choose among actual names;
                          
• For the first time, more than half of the respondents (53 percent) disapprove of Bush's approach to deterring terrorism. More than half of the public thinks he is not “honest and ethical” (54 percent) and lacks “strong leadership qualities” (57 percent). Just before the last election, 55 percent said Bush was honest and 63 percent saw him as a strong leader.

Shades of Blue (LEO)

My LEO column this week takes a look at how the political pendulum is beginning to swing back here in Kentucky and that Kentucky isn't looking nearly as red as it did two years ago...

Bluegrass Politics: Shades of Blue
By Mark Nickolas (LEO)

If November’s election of John Yarmuth (D) to the U.S. Congress wasn’t a clear enough sign that Kentucky’s political pendulum had finally begun swinging back to the Democratic column, then last week’s legislative leadership and committee elections in Frankfort should leave little doubt.

Last Tuesday, House Democrats shunned more conservative members and elected two moderates to leadership: Rep. Rob Wilkey (D-Scottsville) as whip and Rep. Charlie Hoffman (D-Georgetown) as caucus chairman. Days later, that newly reconstituted House leadership sent a clear signal that change was upon us when it elevated three women and one African American to the ranks of committee chairs, even naming one of its most liberal members, Rep. Kathy Stein (D-Lexington), to chair the powerful House Judiciary Committee.

It was impossible to miss how dramatically, and improbably, Kentucky’s political landscape has changed in just two years, considering how methodically the Republican Party amassed power for more than a decade.

To pinpoint the genesis of the 12-year Republican bull run, many observers cite the upset victory of political neophyte Ron Lewis (R) in a 1994 congressional special election after the death of U.S. Rep. William Natcher (D). Later that year, former State Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) joined Lewis in Congress by defeating U.S. Rep. Tom Barlow (D), and Republicans unseated three incumbent Democratic state senators. And by most accounts, 1994 was the first clear muscle-flexing of Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R) emerging political machine.

For the next 10 years, Kentucky Republicans methodically gained ground on Democrats and began dismantling their political fortresses: holding both U.S. Senate seats by 1998; taking the State Senate in 1999; and finally taking back the governor’s mansion in 2003, ending a 32-year drought. By the end of 2004, Kentucky was a barren wasteland for Democrats.

That year, incumbent U.S. Rep. Anne Northup defeated Democrat Tony Miller by 22 points in Louisville, while President Bush won Kentucky by 20 points. The Democrats’ majority in the State House shrunk to 57-43 following the loss of seven seats, and after the defection of another member to the GOP in 2005, Republicans had their most House seats since 1944.

It seemed little could stop the Republicanization of Kentucky, now certifiably a “red state.”

But if Kentucky Republicans flourished following the personal failings of President Bill Clinton (D) and Gov. Paul Patton (D), the party’s unraveling came about because of the public failings of President George W. Bush (R) and Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R).

(click here to keep reading column)

What A Surprise: More Kentucky Republican Whining

Seems that Kentucky Republicans still can't get over the fact that voters kicked former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R) out of office and continue to whine about it nationally, demonstrating that they are still in denial for the punishment they received for taking the country in the wrong direction.

Here's their latest whine in today's The Hill:

The chairman of the Jefferson County GOP, Jack Richardson IV, said Louisville continues to be a conservative city, and that Yarmuth’s election was less about the two candidates than a poisoned national environment.

Richardson said voters in the district are reeling from “a case of buyer’s remorse” despite the brevity of Yarmuth’s six-day-old tenure.

“Voters wanted to throw a tantrum to send a message,” Richardson said. “[But] it’s kind of like when you sober up the next day and you get a hangover and you say, ‘What in the world did I do?’”

Richardson said Yarmuth, a wealthy alternative-newspaper publisher, will be “just another rich kid on the block” in Washington who will come to find the congressional workload interferes with his golf game.

“Jack Richardson has about as much credibility as President Bush,” Yarmuth said. “I’ll have at least a year and a half to demonstrate my commitment to the job and the district and the country, and I have no doubt that I’ll do that.”

[...]

A longtime political reporter for The (Louisville) Courier-Journal, Al Cross, said the 3rd District is trending Democratic, with a large number of “traditional blue-collar, grey-collar heritage Democrats,” who want to vote the party line if presented with a viable option.

Northup's Nonsense and Bitterness

Stumbled upon this transcript of a January 4, 2007 episode of PBS' NewsHour where former Rep. Anne Northup (R) was part of a roundtable discussion about the Democratic takeover of Congress.

Check out how bitter she sounds:

I do worry that the last two years there was a lot of feeling among the Republican majority that everything the other side did was set to set a stage in order to put the Republicans on the defensive, and so there's a lot of bitterness, underlying bitterness about the last two years that are left that could come and haunt that effort

[...]

Again, I think the sort of residual bitterness -- in all honesty, you know, I arrived in 1996, and I can tell you, until I left several days ago, I mean, the Democrats complained bitterly about the Republicans and how they took control of Congress. They felt like they had been so partisan and created rancor for political reasons.

I think there's a lot of that feeling that's left over in the Republicans now with the outcome of the elections.

[...]

[on Pelosi] But I think that she has come into being the speaker much like Newt Gingrich does, by being -- much like Newt Gingrich did, by being very aggressive against the majority party when they were in the minority. And that does leave scars, as we saw with Newt Gingrich.

I also find it amusing that she whines "everything the other side did was set to set a stage in order to put the Republicans on the defensive."

That would a remarkable if true because the House is majority-rule and the minority party had no say in anything while her party ran the show for the last 12 years.

She sounds like a very bitter woman. Imagine what she'll sound like in November after losing two races in 12 months to Democrats...

Northup Campaign Manager Named Director Of KEEP

This is really interesting on a couple of levels:

The Kentucky Equine Education Project, which favors legalizing casino gambling in the state, has named Patrick Neely as its executive director.

Neely was a campaign manager and congressional staff member for former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup.

KEEP’s chairman, former Gov. Brereton Jones, confirmed Neely’s appointment in an interview Wednesday afternoon.

The move places a Republican in a key position for the statewide equine group, which was accused last year of favoring Democratic candidates. Jones is a Democrat.

First, it puts a Republican at the top slot at KEEP, which continues to have most of its problems with Republican legislators, at least with respect to its position on expanded gaming. Secondly, this makes me think that Anne Northup (R) isn't running for governor since it's hard to believe she wouldn't want Neely at the helm given their relationship.

Beyond that, I think this is a solid move for KEEP. Neely is a pro and talented. He did a solid job managing Northup's congressional campaign last year, losing only by three in a year that she could have lost by a whole lot more. I'm certain he'll do a great job.

Congrats, Patrick.

Another Leadership Question

I've never thought for a moment that State Rep. Bob Damron (D) would have any problems getting re-elected House Majority Caucus Chairman given the successful election cycle that his caucus just had.

Could I be wrong?

A Troubling Trend For Kentucky GOP

One of the more revealing signs of the political temperature of Kentucky voters is to look at how the political parties are doing among new voter registration, a statistic that the Secretary of State releases each month.

While Republicans have eaten considerably into the large Democratic Party lead over the past couple of decades, I noticed a fascinating recent trend among the percentage of new voters registering as Republicans during the 2006 election cycle -- from November 2004 through October 2006 (new voters had until October 11 to register for November election, but statistics don't break down by day):

Source: Kentucky Secretary of State, Motor Voter Statistics

Republican registration among new voters for the 2006 calendar year (through November) was 40%, the lowest annual number since 1999 when it was 39%. Democratic Party registration rose to 50% in 2006, their highest since 2002.

In the final two months of this election cycle, Republicans' share of new voters dropped from 41% (August), to 39% (September), to 35% (October). Meanwhile, Democrats saw their shares rise from 48% to 50% to 53%, respectively. Independent voters remained relatively consistent during those months (11%, 11% and 12%).

There was an uptick among Republican registration in November 2006 (to 41%) and December numbers aren't yet available.

GOP Second Guessing Continues

They're still smarting from the ass-kicking the voters gave them:

Narrowly defeated in his bid for a fourth term, Montana Sen. Conrad Burns turned his anger on the National Republican Senatorial Committee and commercials it had run months before the election.

"The ads hurt me more than they helped. I wouldn't have spent the money," he said, his comments characteristic of the season of second-guessing now unfolding among Republicans.

A Petty Parting Shot Or Good Government?

Thoughts on whether this was a parting shot by outgoing Lexington Mayor Teresa Isaac to incoming Mayor Jim Newberry following a tough election loss, or whether it's good government on Isaac's part?

McConnell: "I was surprised"

Senator McConnell (R) when asked about Rep.-elect John Yarmuth's (D) victory over Rep. Anne Northup (R) last month:

"I was surprised. I thought somehow, some way, she would pull that out again, but it was a tough day."