KY3: ***SURVEY USA POLL*** YARMUTH 48, NORTHUP 47 ***

A source has just told me that WHAS-11 TV (Louisville) will report today that the latest Survey USA poll shows that John Yarmuth (D) has taken a 48% to 47% lead over Rep. Anne Northup (R)!

UPDATE: Given that John Yarmuth (D) is the only congressional candidate in Kentucky who is currently ahead in public polls. And given that President Clinton is coming to Louisville on Tuesday to help bail-out the KDP from its financial mismanagement (hence no public rally with Clinton and Yarmuth), does anyone think that KDP Chairman Jerry Lundergan's IQ is high enough to ensure that the Yarmuth is pushed front-and-center for the event, even if the money raised gets spread around to multiple candidates???

I can't think of another candidate in Kentucky who could benefit more from a Bill Clinton appearance than Yarmuth. So, will Lundergan will recognize this and help push Yarmuth over the top, or will he try to make the event about himself and his friends?

Just curious what you think?

Comments

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

Nov 6, Yarmuth by 6 to 8%.
Unless there is some disaster for Yarmuth between now and election day.

Good job campaign buddies, Bravo to you!

No longer will report, it has been reported. Yarmuth up 48-47!

[matt248]

I think Yarmuth is going to need a 10-15% lead going into the last week - his climb has been steady and consistent though.

I did finally watch some network TV last night and couldn't believe how many political ads Northup is running - they just keep piling up and piling up

[Daniel]

This is awesome news.

Apparently the more Anne's ads go up, the higher John's numbers go. At least that is the correlation thus far.

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

Always a factor but virtually impossible to identify, is the undecided. If the polls show a lead of 1% at this time you can expect the actual voting results on election day to to be greater if you consider the undecided.

The percent has no way to calculate but would you agree that at least 60% undecided will go to Yarmuth. I have not seen numbers on the undecided but would like to if anyone has them.

Some people just don't talk about it, they just go vote.

[Scooby]

Fine check track record of Survey USA. Follow up to BGR Headline-More Fletcher Administration Criminality- FORMER ATTORNEY GENERAL BEN CHANDLER'S DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC CORRUPTION UNIT CHARGED WITH FELONY FRAUD. And yes I did have to yell. This is getting to be disgraceful!

[Kenneth Stepp]

That's a great poll result. Kenneth Stepp.

Thank you Mr. Stepp. Hopefully the corrupt practices of the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld/Fletcher/Williams/Seum/Seum-Stephenson/Brockenborough/Tori/Forgy-Kerr etc, etc, and so on [yeah, I threw them all in] will manifest itself in the 5th District as well.

Scooby, apepars that Chandler was able to keep control over his house when he AG and the criminality occurred when the Fletcher crime family took over and didn't give a rat's ass about lawbreaking among its underlings. They lead by example. Sorry Scoob that your boys are so crooked and stupid. It must really suck for you.

Scooby, you seem as smart as your cartoon alter-ego. Rut ro.

Thanks for playing, though.

[Scooby]

Nice try- THE MOB HAS MORE HONOR than this site!

A little of subject, but . . . . do you ever say anything of any substance, Daniel??

NAWWW... Daniel opines, reclined and supine.

Action, where is Daniel?

Tell us Daniel, whassup with you on the campaign trail? What actions have you taken lately,advancing the cause, other than opining to us?

[Scooby]

Come on Mark at least the Paxtons have "covered" the Great Affair. How about your turn- YOU INTIMATED CRIMINALITY of the Fletcher administration. Clarify or apologize. PS If you have such a problem with the KDP do something more than bitch here every day- your track record in Ky ain't so great either.

Mark:

The Clinton event is Tuesday, not Monday.

Here's the info straight from KDP.

Kentucky Democratic Party presents Special Guest President William Jefferson Clinton
at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner Tuesday, October 24, 2006 Doors Open at 3:30 p.m. Cash Bar available 4:30 p.m. Seating for Dinner Kentucky International Convention Center Cascade Ballroom 221 South Fourth Street Louisville, Kentucky 40202

JB

[mark nickolas]

JB-Thanks.

[RDemocrat]

Great news, but I have absolutely zero faith in Lundergren to do the right thing.

It could happen in Louisville. Jerry is a complete idiot.

[KYGuy]

I was called on this WHAS survey just the other evening. It will also be interesting to see the results on the questions about Bush.

What really needs to happen is for the KDP to use this big loan money and give it directly to the Louisville-Jefferson County Party. They need a HUGE GOTV effort, and if the planning is done correctly, big $$ can go very far when pulling voters to polls. Look at what the DCCC did with their influx of $$ to the Chandler special election. Brought paid walkers, etc. GOTV can be won with a great plan + manual labor.

Keep in mind that the Jefferson Co. Party has some great grassroots minds in there, including some of the Horne team who took him from a nobody to a decent challenger using old-fashioned grassroots. If you throw serious $$ in there, you can possibly counter the Republican GOTV machine.

GOTV for Yarmuth is absolutely the most critical thing right now.

[matt248]

I'm debating whether to attend the Clinton thing or if my money is best served spread through several democratic candidates.

The KDP president did promise that Yarmuth would have their support. Would certainly like to see the DCCC get involved as well.

Moveon has moved the race onto their hot races targets which is great

[matt248]

I also agree that getting Yarmuth front and center at the Clinton fundraiser would be tremendous

[Matt Housh]

Over one year ago several Ky Democrats reached out to President Clinton to come to KY where he one twice. It good that the Democratic Congressional Candidate is doing well in the polls. Conway did go in the polls to. THe key is the west end of Louisville where Anne has given out cash to som many people. Money talks and loyality walks. It would be better to get President Clinton and the Congressional Candidate to walk side by side out in the West end for a photo op. That picture would be priceless and win the seat for us blue folks. Oh yea I was one of the folks who ask the President to come over a year ago!

[Matt Housh]

Here is a copy of the letter i sent over one year ago to President Clinton,

February 11, 2005

Honorable Bill Clinton
President of the United States (former)
55 West 125th Street
New York City, NY 10027

Re: Kentucky Politics

Dear Bill Clinton,

This is my first attempt to contact you. However I have been a constituent of yours since your campaign of 1992. Your leadership is sorely missed. With our nation being at war and our economy in shambles new leadership must rise in the Party. Our current President is hell bent on a policy of depriving the nation’s weakest and most vulnerable right into despair. I reach out to you from your Commonwealth of Kentucky seeking your assistance. Here in Kentucky like many parts of the south we are experiencing red fever. The republicans have taken control and we the faithful democrats of your party have been forgotten, but we the faithful are resolved in our efforts and are moving under the radar to recapture the hearts and minds of the citizens through hard persistent efforts.
For me being like you having vision and fortitude have hope that the day will soon come when blue reigns again and our nation is moving progressively forward on the path that you laded down for us. However we need you now we need your spirit we need you voice to lift us up and give us the necessary encouragement to proceed with the mission at hand. Please come to Kentucky prior to the mid term elections in 2006. Louisville would be the place to visit. There you could assist us in taking back Congress. Please Come!

Very Truly Yours,

William Matthew Housh

[Scooby]

Nice ending to that letter Matt. Didn't that cause the Oxford hillbilly some problems a few years back?

[Matt Housh]

Funny and accurate! The result is he will be here next Tuesday. Thanks Scooby PS get yourself a Scooby snack!!

[Daniel]

2:19 and 2:37, my class schedule is one that doesn't quite work very well with volunteering for the campaigns this fall and I'll be the first to admit that. Secondly, my weekend availability for the rest of the campaign season as of now "booked" but it all depends on how the sports teams here do as it's playoff season and I have to work those games. Theoretically, I could be free in two Sundays from now, and then again, I might not. It's all pending the results of this Sunday's game.
Believe me, I want to be out there actively volunteering but by schedule isn't allowing me to do tht this fall.
That said, even though it's on campus, I may or may not be at the Lucas-Davis debate due to having to study for an exam tomorrow.

[Rich Miles]

Daniel, I haven't had much to say about you and your posts because a) it wasn't that important to me what you do or don't do, and b) others were wailing on you a lot better than I could - but let me ask you a question:

Does your constant excuse-making work for you in other areas of your life? Do you get a lot of "oh poor babies" when you tell people things like what you said in your 4:49 post, and in other posts on this thread and elsewhere?

I mean, has no one ever shown you the wisdom of simply keeping your excuses to yourself? Really, dude, no one cares - everyone has stuff going on in their lives, and most people don't need to make such a big deal about their activities and how busy they are, and how they are unavailable to do things for campaigns etc. etc ad nauseam. They either do them, or they shut up about them. I recommend you give it a try.

You're a young man, so let me offer a bit of unsolicited advice from the perspective of someone old enough at least to be your father: I can pretty much promise you that this habit of self-absorbed self-justification for your failings is not going to serve you well in later life. If you try this in, for instance, a job situation or the like, you'd be very likely to be told thanks but no thanks. Or worse.

IMHO. Take the advice or not, no skin off my nose.

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

I picked up these numbers from the internet.
Close as we know, but by comparing other surveys might provide a little more incite.

jas

Kentucky 3

Anne Northup-R
Pollster/Source
N Pop
MoE
Dates
John Yarmuth (D)
Anne Northup (R)*

Cooper & Secrest (D)
564 LV
4.12
10/11-15/06
44
45

RT Strategies/
Constituent Dynamics
996 LV
3.09
10/8-10/06
48
48

SurveyUSA
529 LV
4.3
9/26-28/06
44
50

Cooper & Secrest (D)
563 LV
4.1
6/20-22/06
46
47

Kentucky 4

Geoff Davis-R

Pollster/Source
N Pop
MoE
Dates
Ken Lucas (D)
Geoff Davis (R)*

RT Strategies/
Constituent Dynamics
1000 LV
3.09
10/8-10/06
46
49

SurveyUSA
459 LV
4.7
10/7-9/06
44
47

Zogby
500 LV
4.5
9/25-10/2/06
36
42

SurveyUSA
427 LV
4.8
9/16-18/06
48
44

RT Strategies/
Constituent Dynamics
963 LV
3.1
8/27-29/06
46
49

SurveyUSA
656 LV
3.9
8/7-9/06
44
46

SurveyUSA
447 LV
4.7
7/22-24/06
50
41

[Daniel]

Thanks, Rich. I had been debating myself whether or not to reply to those two posters...who, unlike me, choose to remain anonymous. Now back to studying...

[Mark's an Idiot]

Hope you kids saw Northup's latest ad pointing out Yarmuth's hypocrisy. He calls $5.15 minimum wage "immoral and unconscienceable" yet many of his families restaurants where he gets his millions pay exactly that. Either he is an incredible hypocrite or you want to send someone to DC who can't even convince his family to vote his way. What a joke! How do you people want a millionaire who never has had to work for a living represent you and the "middle class and underprivileged? Disgusting.

[L'viller]

DING DONG YOUR WITCH IS DEAD!

This is the end for Anne - the way she's acting, she's likely to blow her lid and ruin all her chances for any future office.

$10 says she goes to lobby for the Realtor's PAC in just a few months...

Is that minimum wage plus tips? If so, it's far greater than most restaurants pay.

Addendum to 6:21 post,
It would also be much greater than that which is paid by the KY Parks Dept. at our state parks.

Most waiters make less than $5.15 as there is a serving wage that is normally about half that, because of the addition of tips. His restaurants are paying the cooks and dishwashers the minimum.

7:10,
And you know that how?

Daniel, 90% of the people who comment here have busier lives than you do. Most of us also share responsibilty for supporting our families and taking care of our homes. Grown-up stuff.

You will never again in your life have as much free time as you do now.

Whether or not you go to the Lucas-Davis debate has zero impact on that election. Attending a debate is a privilege, not volunteer work.

Most of us are spending far more time helping candidates than we are sharing our opinions online. Even though we paid our dues in volunteer work many years ago, we know it's still our obligation if we really care who wins November 7th.

[Holler Boy]

What's with all the nasty notes thrown Daniel's way? So what if he shares information re his personal life choices. If you don't care to read his comments, skip them. Blogs are all about expression, so let him express. And most of all, stop patronizing him. He can take it. HB.

[Steve Magruder (I, not D or R)]

Actually, participating in forums is helpful, as it can tend to inform and shape opinion. A lot of people read this blog without contributing, and they talk to others. Don't sell discussion short -- it's a significant element of democracy. And this popular blog is a tool we didn't have in previous congressional elections here in Kentucky.

No one has defended Yarmuth for his hypocrisy yet. I don't care if his restaurants pay more than most. If Repubs get beat up here for acting moral and then being immoral, Yarmuth should get the same treatment. Where is your intellectual honesty and integrity? He made the statement and he can't live by it. Please explain why you let him get away with it.

If information comes out that the restaurants pay far more than $5.15 an hour, would Northup be liable? Sonny's is a privately held company and not in the public domain like candidate Yarmuth. Does anyone know what the minimum wage in Florida? Aren't they one of those higher wage states?

to the idiot at 6:04:

How do you people want a millionaire to represent you and the "middle class and underprivileged? Disgusting. We already have one. And she doesn't. What's the minimum wage in Florida?

954...not the point. Yarmuth made the comment about it being "immoral" That means he gets held to a higher standard. What his families restaurants are doing is legal. But, he said it was "immoral". Respond to that piece of hypocrisy or shut the hell up.

What's with all the beating up on Daniel? Oh wait, I guess it's because there are some people in college who go to school full time, have jobs, and still manage to get off their rear ends and make phone calls, walk precincts, stuff envelopes, and all those find and wonderful things to get people elected. Sure the internet has political power, but action has more.

[Sam Wise]

Folks, first, thank you to every cotton-picking one of you for doing the grunt work that is going to pay off. Second, as that work gets done, let's do it with more class than the neocons, with a truly welcoming spirit even toward those we think possibly could do more. Let's not just win the elctoral battles to advance our ideals, but let's also show them a new way to do things that rises above the past's approaches, including how we deal with the many and varied components of our party.

"Great grassroots minds"

Are you kidding me? Brooke Pardue hasn't walked a day in her life. She is the person Horne hired as his assistant campaign manager and then had to fire because she was a huge risk he moved her to writing checks and talking on the phone if I remember correctly

The guy in there did nothing for Horne but walk around. Lisa sure didn't anything. We were walking for John while she was going to parties and drinking. I don't not know about there others in there

Anyone who thinks giving to the Louisville party after their IRS scandal is crazy.

Okay, I'm pretty sure I know who 11:26 is, and I have two words for you: grow up. Lisa works long hard hours every day for the party, bringing in countless volunteers, while at the same time volunteers are getting turned away at Yarmuth headquarters. Horne got over 30% of the vote with zero name id going in and little money, because of the ground campaign. I saw, and still have yet to see any evidence of an active ground campaign from John's people, which could unfortunately be costly come election day.

[Steve Magruder (I, not D or R)]

Yarmuth explains how he pays his restaurant workers in Florida here.

[Rich Miles]

It amazes me how, now that we're getting down to the wire, the wingnuts here are just willing to believe and propagate any damn thing any of their candidates say. Unquestioning loyalty is not a good thing, kids. You have to look at reality once in a while - for instance, the link embedded in the 12:11 post from Magruder. Makes things a bit clearer, and best of all it's CHECKABLE - unlike little Annie's "fling-it-out-there-and-see-if-it-sticks-to-anything" stuff.

I'm pretty sure I know who 11:26 is too - one of the great political wannabes of this campaign season, who has been dropping names since about mid-July and telling people he has a lot more influence than he ever even might have had on a good day.

I echo the 11:34 comment - grow up, sonny boy. And stop trying to trash your betters just on your say-so. If you ever had any credibility, it's completely lost when you make posts like that one anonymously.

[Mark's an Idiot]

Sam Wise: you are a complete hypocrite. Does this sound familiar. You are just as whiny and close minded as the rest of your hate spewing brethren.

Off-beat solution for Northup--

How about if Yarmuth supporters started throwing small cups of water on her at public meetings?

There are two possible outcomes: Either she looks ridiculous, and the point is made about what a witch she is, OR if she really is a genuine witch, she just melts! Either way, problem solved...

Damn, if I was Dale Emmons, I'd get $15,000 for great idears like that.

Posted by :Sam Wise

[Nick Stump]

Well, here's hoping if we do win in November that we work toward pulling this country together instead of widening the divide been the two parties. I would echo Sam's thought about showing more class than the neocons. Our country deperately needs responsible leadership.

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

Did anyone happen to notice 71 American soldiers were killed in the last few weeks.

I believe I said, the violence would pick up and the number of killed would increase.
Thousands have been wounded by IED's and sniper fire and those numbers are not mentioned very often on the news.

So far over 400 US soldiers have died in Iraq (during and after the "end" of the war). This by itself is having a big impact on US public opinion. However, the number of injured US soldiers is less known. There has been a concerted effort on the part of the US authorities to play down this side of the war. Now however the truth is beginning to leak out. Recently Time magazine in the US and The Independent in Britain published figures on what is happening. Over 1500 US soldiers have been injured in armed conflicts, and a staggering 9,341 have been flown out for various other health reasons, most importantly for mental stress.

The first place injured US soldiers are taken is the US Regional Medical Centre in Landstuhl in Germany. So far 7714 ill and injured troops from Iraq have been treated at this centre. Many are then moved on to the Reed Medical Centre in Washington. This centre has 250 beds. Practically all of them are occupied by soldiers injured in Iraq. The same facility has 600 rooms for visiting relatives to stay in. There are so many relatives arriving that many now have to share a room, and hundreds more are being put up in local hotels.

When these soldiers left for Iraq they were sent of as "heroes", but now as Time magazine points out, "When the wounded come home, they are rarely greeted with waving flags and parades." In fact the authorities try and minimise their presence. The Pentagon only announces those injured when they are involved in an attack which leads to the death of an American soldier. If no one is killed, then the injured are discreetly taken away out of the limelight.

[Jim Anderson Stivers]

George W. Bush words to Congress on the Iraq conflict and the WMD. Lets not forget this one . . .please. jas

"We're determined to confront those threats at the source. We will stop these weapons from being acquired or built. We'll block them from being transferred. We'll prevent them from ever being used. One source of these weapons is dangerous and secretive regimes that build weapons of mass destruction to intimidate their neighbors and force their influence upon the world. These nations pose different challenges; they require different strategies.

The former dictator of Iraq possessed and used weapons of mass destruction against his own people. For 12 years, he defied the will of the international community. He refused to disarm or account for his illegal weapons and programs. He doubted our resolve to enforce our word -- and now he sits in a prison cell, while his country moves toward a democratic future.

When John wins, the people at Barrett Avenue will have a hard time going any further since they seem to think they are still running a Horne campaign. That is evident from several entries above. They forgot that Col. Horne told them the race was over and he is supporting the winner who got 54% of the vote. At least Horne read the election results from May and has been a good soldier for Yarmuth. Have any of the other Horne worker - oh wait, I mean Democratic Party workers - done anything at Yarmuth HQ? Do they even know where it is? Same goes for Abramson who seems to think he is the top of the ticket. The county clerk has the ballot online. Has Abramson seen a ballot? Has that Riddle dude seen a ballot? The top of the Democratic ticket is a little jewish guy named Yarmuth. The rest of youall need to see the light.

[mtn236]

Thanks to election law, it is not legal for persons currently employed by the Louisville Jefferson County Democratic Party or the KDP to do ANYTHING official for the Yarmuth campaign. They can even be fined simply for being seen talking. So to all who keep bitching, grow up.

[mtn236]

If Yarmuth wants to claim top of the ticket status,then he needs to start acting like it. Neither he or anyone on his staff is demonstrating any poltitical skill or instinct. All the good things they have stumbled into doing, like the website, should have been done in June.

Yarmuth will get my vote, since Anne is terrible and out of party loyalty. But if he wants my respect, he's going to have to earn it.

What are Yarmuth people mad Horne's people about? This is pretty snippy stuff. Horne's certainly worked for Yarmuth and if people weren't working directly at Yarmuth Headquarters they were working for the party. We're all in the same party, right?

Looks like somebody's still carrying a grudge from the primary. That's the last thing we need now. Also, I might remind everyone, this race is not over. I wouldn't start gloating yet.

[Jacob Payne]

The comments made at 11:26 P.M. yesterday are absurd. I urge anyone who doesn't know Brooke, Lisa or Randy to stop by Democratic Headquarters sometime. They are three of the hardest working individuals in all of Louisville and are all responsible for Andrew Horne's great performance.

I worked with all three of them and personally spent the better part of six months working right beside Brooke. She is an upstanding mother, wife and leader. She functioned in many roles so there's no way to list them all. For the record, and to discredit the idiotic commentary, Brooke was the Deputy Campaign Manager for the entire time Andrew Horne was in the race while also serving as Director of Finance. She has devoted her time and energy to making this world a better place and she has done so under circumstances that further exemplify her remarkable character.

If it weren't for Brooke there wouldn't be much getting done in this city. So get a fucking grip, idiots. This feckless attempt at an attack only serves to make you look ignorant.

This is ridiculous and I urge Mark to move toward a required log-in system.

[Jacob Payne]

Further, Mark, I feel you should remove the disgusting comments from last evening. Since these upstanding individuals aren't elected officials there is no reason they should have to face nameless attacks on a blog.