3rd Congressional District Update

Just got off the phone with LEO founder and former publisher John Yarmuth (D) and he decided that he's in and filing his candidacy papers tomorrow to take on Rep. Anne Northup (R)! Folks, we got ourselves another race.

Just remember that Kentucky Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Lundergan publicly wrote off both the 3rd and 4th congressional district races a few months ago. As much as I like state Rep. Mike Weaver (D) and want him to beat Rep. Ron Lewis (R), and will do what I can to help, the truth is that we are much more likely to defeat Northup and Rep. Geoff Davis (R), despite Lundergan's hopes.

Comments

[WKDEM]

John looked and sounded very much like a candidate on Friday night's Comment show !! Looks like a good year for us after all !! Let the games begin !!! Go Dems !!!

[Daniel]

We can win KY-2, 3, 4, and keep 6. Let's hope our candidates in 1 and 5 do a great job too.

[Brent Parrish]

I like John as a person, but there is no way he can win. All he is doing is hurting the party.

Primaries can always strengthen the party too...and boost Lt. Col Horne's name recognition for the general election.

Horne is dead.

Wow! Mark- you are on fire today! You were right about Lucas and Yarmuth all along!

I for one am very excited about Yarmuth's campaign and will be working hard to make sure he wins.

[Judy Munro-Leighton]

The only person who gains from a Yarmuth candidacy on the last filing day is Anne Northup. Hopefully, John will prevent a costly divisive primary and work with Andrew Horne to defeat Northup. Horne already has a campaign in gear and he has national media attention.

[Judy Munro-Leighton]

The only person who gains from a Yarmuth candidacy on the last filing day is Anne Northup. Hopefully, John will prevent a costly divisive primary and work with Andrew Horne to defeat Northup. Horne already has a campaign in gear and he has national media attention.

[Jeff Noble]

I had very early on encouraged Dan Borsch to run for Congress. He has decided to wait for a better opportunity, which I am sure will follow.

I'm now very happy to hear of Yarmuth's entry into the race. I look forward to working with him and in his campaign. His views on a wide variety of subjects are already out there, clearly stated in black and white, for most anyone to see or read.

His candidacy is good news for the 3rd CD and Kentucky as well. Hopefully, we do a hattrick here in the Commonwealth with our three challengers in 2, 3, and 4.

John has more class than any Democrat I've ever talked with. Fortunatly for Anne he's a liberal Democrat. She is a shoe in and rightly so. Wonder why John didn't take on Jerry Abramson?

[Kirk]

The DCCC has just written Louisville off the map. There is no way this new guy can beat Northup. The only hope for Louisville at this point is a candidate like Horne. Further, there is no way for any candidate to raise sufficient funds if they have to go through a primary first. Whoever talked this new guy into the race this late should be ashamed of themselves.

The Horne trolls are back.

Yarmuth can level the financial playing field with one check if he wishes. This is a great move for him and a bright day for Democrats everywhere!

[Kirk]

If new guy had a big check to write, he would have been in by now and would have some sort of political advisers. P.S. Just off the phone with the DNC to get their reaction, Dr. Dean just canceled his appearance at the Louisville Jefferson/Jackson Dinner in March...ouch!

Captain "Kirk"

How can you even seriously talk about louisville politics if you don't even know who John Yarmuth is. You are almost as clueless as Horne. Yet somehow you know what the DCCC is. Hmmm. Very, very interesting.

This is a disaster for democrats in Louisivlle. Yarmuth might be a good guy, but a primary means that there's no way to beat Anne. Horne has to spend every nickel he raises on beating anne -- and now he's not only raising less nickels, he has to waste them on yarmuth! Disaster.

What, exactly, is the Jefferson / Jackson Dinner in Jefferson County in March?

We have a Wendell Ford dinner? Is that the dinner you are speaking of?

I wouldn't jump so fast ont he idea that the primary is such a bad idea..it will generate hundreds of thousands of dollars of free press for both Democratic candidates. This will immensely help Horne's name recognition even if he has to spend significant funds in the primary. For Yarmuth, he can spend personal funds in the general election as well.

I agree a primary will be good. It will be interesting to see how badly Yarmuth beats a "progressive" Democrat that didn't even realize he was a Democrat until two weeks before his filing. Maybe Horne should run as what he truly believes in, as an independent, and not try to piggy back on the blood, sweat, and tears of years of hard work that DEMOCRATS have put into trying to build the party.

[Kirk]

Uh...I know who Yarmuth is since I am from Louisville originally...I know he's never come close to winning a race as a Republican or Democrat...I know who the DCCC is...and I called a good friend with the DNC- not the DCCC.

Kirk, baby,

You are losing credibility. Lay back for a week or so.

[Kirk]

You can call the DNC yourself. Dean is not coming. If I'm wrong, all you can eat at Ed Debevik's!

Kirk,

Come on seriously!! You called the DNC and found out that Dr. Dean has already decided to cancel a March visit based on a decision John Yarmuth made this morning??!!! Read that to yourself a couple times and maybe you will realize how silly you sound.

Spock

Kirk, you clearly don't know much about the dynamics of this race.

[beammeupscotty]

Kirk, get a clue and stop wasting valuable space on this site. Yarmuth will wipe the floor with Horne, who should never have entered in the first place.

[Kirk]

Just called again and confirmed that Dean is not coming in. The local party was notified about noon. The DNC was notified about Yarmuth an hour before they notified the local party. Read into this what you will. But the local party apparently had been told Dean would not come if Yarmuth got into the race...probably because they don't waste there time or money if there is no clear winner.

A relative is a member of the local party. That will be my next call. I'm at home with the flu, so I got more time to kill than the rest of y'all.

I know the DNC has sponsored a national press call with Lt. Col. Horne in response to a prior Bush speech. Are you now suggesting they won't be putting funds into the district until after the primary?

Kirk, baby,

Did you have anything to do with scheduling the possible Alito filibuster vote today, thereby causing Senator Kennedy to cancel his engagement with Senator McConnell?

[Kirk]

Beam, Horne ain't the objective,baby, its Northup. And she don't play nice. By the time she's done with Yarmuth, he'll be known throughout the land as a draft dodging, turn-coat republican turned porn peddler. And that's just what I picked off google in the last hour. Personally, he's a nice guy who is in over his head. Nice hasn't won since Lloyd Doggett.

[Daniel]

Isn't the party neutral in primaries?

I'm going to do everything I can for John in the primaries.

Kirk-

The only one in over his head is Horne. Actually, his ship set sail and in only a month he has managed to sink it along with any credibility he might have had. Get a clue as to what every insider in town already knows, Horne was oversold and has under delivered. He has hired a bunch of sleazy good ol boy insiders to run his campaign and managed to turn what should have been a decent sounding bio into a running joke. He can't even tell people where he went to high school without reading it off a prepared text. Need I go on about his inability to speak on ANY issue with substance. How about his answer to Iraq, and I am paraphrasing his stumbling 3 minute version "Lets talk about it". And this from someone who claims to be so passionate about our involvement in Iraq that he changed party affiliation to Democratic. What about the shock many former aquatances have shown about Horne claiming to be a "progressive". HE DIDN'T EVEN KNOW THE NAME OF THE CLEAN AIR PROGRAM IN LOUISVILLE!!!!!!!! STAR...Strategic Targeted Air Reduction program. And we should ask Lou Dobbs how many more problems he has had out of the earpiece Horne used on his show! And boy can your boy work a room. And his charisma, that is through the roof. Yeah, I'm sure Northup was shaking in her boots. I just can't wait to see what the rumors of skeletons in Horne's background are all about once a little research is done on him.

Now, now children lets settle down and try to play nice. Can we try to have a civilized discussion about the race???

[Kirk]

It would seem that Horne has gotten more press than any other challenger out there:

http://horneforcongress.com

[Kirk]

Dear Anonymous,

Your syntax sounds remarkably similar to an article posted on this site by one of those persons mentioned as getting into the 3rd district race. Rex, is that you?

[Unite vs. Northup]

WHAT is with all the nastiness on this message board? Andrew Horne is a decent honorable man and Iraq vet who announced he would run in mid-December when Northup was unchallenged. He has mobilized a great deal of support and his race will benefit from the anti-war vets across the country who are running for Congress. Yarmuth's plans give Northup an advantage. That is the truth. Wouldn't it be great to see Louisville Dems unite behind Horne and defeat Northup?

Anon at 5:55,

Ummm... apparently, you don't know the name of Louisville's clean air program, either...

In any case, I have to admit I'm looking forward to this primary. I trust that all (4!) candidates will maintain a more civilized tone than the majority of posts on this blog.

By the way, I kind of know who Burrel is... anyone know anything about this James Walter Moore?

...I meant the 4 Democratic candidates, if that wasn't clear...

Even though Dan Borsch has decided not to run for Congress... He has a great future and is one of the most intelligent young people in Louisville politics.

I know he is supporting Yarmuth, as many will.

I would like to think Horne has the ability to beat Northup, but I haven't been impressed, thus far.

Maybe he will be motivated by a tough primary opponent, and start to convey his message effectively.

But as of now... Yarmuth is the favorite and could unseat Northup if everything goes his way...it appears the Republican incumbents will be vulnerable come November.

I will wait to see who gets the nomination, and support that candidate... It should be an interesting few months.

I'm not sure John can win, but at least we know who he is, what he stands for. Who is Horne? I looked at his site, it's his bio, nothing else. The only thing I know about him is that he's a "good ol' boy" who went into the Marines and never intended to be a politician. Does he have a stance on anything else?

Not saying he's always right, but at least we can easily figure out what John stands for, he's got a stack of columns for us to peruse. Of course that's probably the negative about him.

Would someone please tell Dan Borsch and his "macro aura" to pipe down and stop posting things about himself!

[Learn about Horne]

Over the next nine months, we will learn more about Andrew Horne. For now you should know: He will meet with Gen. Wesley Clark in DC next week at an event on the Capitol steps with all the Iraq Vets running for Congress. Gen. Clark has set up a PAC to help them get elected. Horne is pro-choice and solid on social issues. Of course, we all know and admire John Yarmuth, but our goal is to Can Anne. Who do you think Northup wants to run against? Tonight she is thanking her lucky stars for an upcoming Democratic primary.

[Brent]

If we elect John we deserve to lose. I mean who do you really think can beat Northup a uber liberal multi millioner who has decades of material that will be used against him or a war hero. Seems pretty clear to me.

[Brent]

If we elect John we deserve to lose. I mean who do you really think can beat Northup a uber liberal multi millioner who has decades of material that will be used against him or a war hero. Seems pretty clear to me.

[Campaign Expert.]

Disagree! State Rep. Mike Weaver (D-Radcliff) can beat ratty Ron Lewis in the 2nd District and it is now the second most winnable race. You're right, the Ken Lucas race is the most competitive due to Lucas' widespread name recognition in the 4th district. Of the three races, the 3rd District is the least winnable. Northup has too much money and the big Democrats in 3rd District have little idea about how to campaign against and beat Republicans and losing records to prove it!

Yarmuth has been a dedicated democrat who has stood up for the progressive values he believes in. He has been fighting for years here in Louisville to make it a better place. He is the only person with the credibility to take Anne Northup to task on her horrible record.

[Kirk]

Col. Weaver's chances would have been a lot better if Col. Horne was not opposed by these last minute entrants. Do you think Weaver wants Yarmuth in his media market? Do you think Baron Hill wants Yarmuth in his media market? This guy is liable to personally roll back the tide in the region all by himself...in favor of Northup, Lewis and Sodrel!

[Sam Wise]

Campaign Expert:

I agree with you that Colonel Weaver has a great chance. But I want to try to phrase it in a positive way for all three district races.

So, Mark, a friendly bet: While all three races will have great candidates, and all three will have a great chance of pulling down more votes than their opponents, I'll bet you a subway sandwich that Weaver has a higher percentage of the vote in his race than the percentage of vote garnered by the Democratic nominee in the Third District.

I think it's at least more likely than not that we will go from one Democratic congressman out of six to three Democratic congressman out of six next year. That means we will take out two incumbents, which will be a pretty good day's work.

[Sam Wise]

by the way, I challenge both candidates:

Promise that if you lose, you will give your full and unqualified support to your primary opponent.

There is a stench of corruption around Northup, and we have a great opportunity to restore representative and good leadership to the constituents of the Third District.

To paraphrase Bill Clinton, it's the earmarking, stupid.

As Dan Borsch so very nicely detailed in his writing, Northup is up to her eyeballs in Abramhoff type transactions that involve huge campaign money going to Northup, in exchange for even bigger earmarks of taxpayer money going the other way. THAT's what I hope we focus on in the fall: Restoring honest and moral leadership to the House.

[jessica]

kirk,
trying to look at this race with an open mind, I clicked on horne's site from one of your posts. first of all, i have to say the site looks like doodee. i've seen sites for city council members that are more professional. second of all, who uses words like "hubristic" when talking to average voters? Third, what the hey does "ram-rod straight" mean??? by looking at this website, i'd like he was letting highschool students run the show.

Lets try and keep this positive for now...Horne appears to be the only candidate with a site, so that is a definite plus for him. Here's to hoping Yarmuth does not actually make the mistake of announcing tomorrow without launching a website...which could cost him tons in potential contributions and volunteer sign-ups...

Part of what voters look at is whether candidates and their supporters offer anything new, or just the same old negative crap. That is true in primaries too.

[Steve Magruder]

I like that Democrats are having a primary. This will be great for keeping the Democratic contenders positively in the news (as long as they stay positive), while Bush continues to flounder, and his lock-step rep, Anne Northup, can drag behind King George's "popularity".

I'll be happy to finally defeat the Lock-step Rep (I coined it first!) this November.

The only reason she has won before is because her previous opponents didn't really fight for the job. I sense something different this time. Cheers!

Jessica,

I just looked at the Col. Horne site. The quotes that you discussed were from an article in the London Times about Col Horne. The term "ram rod straight" was a description of Col. Horne by the Times reporter. The story is linked on the site, horneforcongress.com, along with a bunch of other links from CNN, ABC WorldNews Tonight, etc.

Horne's site looks like a temporary, stop-gap measure to me - a place to collect volunteers, donations, and (gobs of) media mentions while the real thing is still being developed. In any case, it seems at least as professional to me as Yarmuth's Center for KY Progress site (and I'm still not sure what they do - anyone?).

Nor does the lack of content surprise me, given that Horne's not one of these people who's been dreaming, plotting and planning about a career in politics since high school (mostly a plus in my book). I suspect that as the campaign develops a message and Horne bones up on the issues (I suspect some will quote both those phrases derisively, but I'm all for regular people entering the political realm), we'll learn a lot more about what he stands for and who he is.

I'm not giving up on Yarmuth, and I wouldn't ask anyone else to, either, at this point. We'll have plenty of time to find out who and what these people are, how they campaign, and what kind of support they bring to bear. Then we'll pick the best one (who knows, maybe it'll be Farnsley or Moore!), and, likely, move on to victory in November.

Cheers!

I am disappointed by the nasty tone of some of the posters on this site. I am certain that the attendees at our DFA meeting tomorrow night, where we will vote on an endorsement for this race, will be able to stay civil and sensible as we discuss this race and make our decision.

Mike Bailey
DFA Change for Louisville

[matt]

Here is some more info on James Moore and his website. http://www.voteforjimmy.org/

Quite a few ideas there!

Mike, I wholeheartedly agree. That nastiness doesn't tell us anything about the candidates. It's just proxies or supporters being childish, and it needs to stop.

[Jimmy]

A couple of people have asked who this Moore guy is - well, it's me. I'm James Walter Moore, and yes, I'm running for Congress. I was foolish enough to trudge up the steps of the Kentucky State Capital on Monday, plunk down my 500 bucks, and become a candidate in the 3rd District Democratic Congressional Primary. The fact that an ordinary citizen like me can do such an audacious thing is one reason why we live in a great country. But beyond that, we also live in a country with a terribly flawed campaign system. Big money is ruining – no, it has ruined – the political process. Only millionaires, or those who become beholden to them, can ever afford to enter politics. The rest of us are left disenfranchised, and because of that too many talented people will never run for office, much less be elected.

I seem to remember a recent quote from Barack Obama – about how a politician needs to focus on one great issue of importance in order to be successful. I have a lot on my mind like all of you do, but I’m going to try and follow Barack’s advice. My one great issue is going to be political reform. I want us to give the process back to the people. If nothing else, I hope that this campaign of mine will help to make that happen.

Regards,
James W Moore
http://voteforjimmy.org

Read Jimmy's site. It is great!

Mike Bailey
DFA Change for Louisville

DFA Change for Louisville overwhelmingly endorses Lt. Col. Andrew Horne for Congress:

Folks, if you missed the meeting last night, you missed a big one. All three serious candidates running for US Congress in the 3rd District, hoping to win a primary and face Anne Northup, turned out to ask for the endorsement of our group, DFA Change for Louisville.

After we heard from Melvin Ratchford, Tony Lindauer, and Aaron Tasman, who are running for PVA, the congressional candidates spoke to the group. Since all three candidates are very progressive on the issues, with few substantive differences in policy, I asked them to focus on convincing DFA why they feel they should be the one to challenge Northup, without focusing on issues.

James Walter Moore (http://voteforjimmy.org/) set the bar incredibly high, winning over the DFA crowd almost immediately with his frank honesty and his sense of humor. His innovative ideas excited many, and his energy and passion greatly impressed the group. Most of us had no idea what to expect from Moore, an engineer and business owner. In fact, I had only discovered his web site that morning, and he had been invited to the event with less than eight hours notice. Even so, he was prepared and energized. Moore’s main reason for running is to restore integrity to the political process and after his amazing debut on the political stage, DFA members feel that Moore’s participation will make a positive difference.

Andrew Horne (http://horneforcongress.com/), a Marine Lt. Col., spoke to the crowd next. Horne was confident and passionate, directly fielding questions about how he would handle the seemingly inevitable Republican swift-boating should he win the primary, and explaining how he would deal with Republican wedge-issue tactics. It was when he related a dramatic personal story about a turning point in the mismanaged war in Iraq that the DFA crowd seemed to lean back toward Horne. DFA members highly value Horne’s service to our country, and feel that his strength and courage to step into the political ring as a total outsider is refreshing. Horne’s impressive media coverage is also an advantage, and it seems that of the three candidates, he is far more likely to draw nationwide donations. Finally, his employment of professionals to help run the traditional portion of his campaign, in combination with his aggressive courting of grassroots support, show his forethought and commitment to winning the race.

Local celebrity columnist and publisher John Yarmuth wrapped up the congressional interviews. Expectations were high, and DFA members were anticipating a progressive fighter. Some were wondering if the mood in the crowd would shift for a third time - in Yarmuth's favor. Many of us have followed Yarmuth’s columns over the years, and his intelligence and positions have impressed us. Unfortunately Yarmuth did not exhibit the kind of passion that either of the other two candidates expressed. He seemed almost tired and disinterested at times, as if he was not excited about the race. When Yarmuth was asked strategic questions about how he would handle Republican attacks exploiting his columns, his association with LEO (specifically the back pages), and his liberal reputation, Yarmuth seemed to feel like he was being attacked by the group. Instead of effectively showing us how he would rebut the inevitable Republican attacks, he seemed to take offense to the questions, and did not answer them to the group’s satisfaction. The group was disappointed by the lackluster showing of a person who many of us have respected for a long time. In the end, the DFA members, while grateful to Yarmuth for his past service, decided that Yarmuth can best continue to serve the community through his writing and activism, and that his candidacy is not viable.

At the final vote, Lt. Col. Andrew Horne won an overwhelming majority, but the DFA members insisted upon an ovation for the amazing showing of political unknown James Walter Moore. We feel certain that with the name recognition that Moore will build in this race, he will be a force to be reckoned with in any future election in which he chooses to participate. And we hope that in that future race, we will be announcing an endorsement for Moore. For now, we intend to focus our energies on insuring that Andrew Horne is victorious in the primary.

I’ll send another note later about the PVA candidates, and the initial impressions from the group.

As of this time, DFA Change for Louisville has endorsed Russ Salsman for Circuit Clerk, and Lt. Col. Andrew Horne for Congress.

Mike Bailey
DFA Change for Louisville