How Will Merit Probe Affect Supreme Court Race Next Year?

One of the more interesting side stories of the present Merit System probe plaguing Governor Fletcher is how upcoming events will affect next year's race for Supreme Court for the seat now occupied by John Roach, Fletcher's former general counsel and campaign aide.

It appears, based on the progression of the case, that Attorney General Greg Stumbo has done a solid job of constructing a "pyramid" of indictments, starting with the smaller fish and building his way up. One must wonder whether there are two more levels to go, the next being Chief of Staff Stan Cave, former Chief of Staff Daniel Groves, and John Roach, and the final level being Governor Fletcher and Lt. Governor Pence themselves.

The ongoing speculation and rumors -- fueled in large part by Fletcher's own comments -- that he is considering pardons of those indicted and even not yet indicted, and his own overheated and over-the-top rhetoric, may suggest concern about whether Cave, Groves and Roach are Stumbo's next targets, and whether this whole investigation leads to biggest fish of them all: Governor Fletcher.

While Fletcher has been adamant that he knew nothing of the allegedly illegal conduct of his underlings, documents released by the court this week look like the probe is getting closer and closer to him. For instance, despite attempts to distance Dan Druen from the governor and claim that he acted on his own, we now know, based on Druen's own personal calendar, that he was involved in at least 13 meetings in the governor's office between September 2004 and March 2005, as well as meeting regularly with the Republican big boys: Dave Disponett and J. Marshall Hughes.

Ultimately, how this investigation affects now Supreme Court Justice John Roach should be a fascinating piece of political drama. If the Governor doles out pardons, many will question whether a member of the Kentucky Supreme Court -- the top judicial body of the state -- should accept it.  If he is not pardoned, one would assume that he will eventually be called to testify before the Grand Jury. Would he testify fully, or would we face the specter of a sitting Supreme Court justice invoking the Fifth Amendment? If he did, how inappropriate would that be considered? What happens if he is indicted? Should he continue to sit on the highest court and deliberate over cases? What happens if he is convicted of a misdemeanor crime, or a felony?

This leads us to the question, how will this probe affect Roach's chances at keeping his seat next year when he runs as an "incumbent"? So far, Circuit Court Judge Mary Noble has declared her intentions to challenge Roach. Noble (as well as Roach) was one of the three finalists selected by the Supreme Court's nominating commission to fill the seat of the retiring Justice James Keller. Several prominent Fletcher-supporters such as Don Ball and Luther Deaton, as well as Keller himself, are supporting Noble.

Complicating the mix is that former Chief Judge of the Court of Appeals Anthony Wilhoit is being aggressively drafted by Democratic activists and lawyers throughout the district to enter the race. Wilhoit presently sits as the Executive Director of the state's Legislative Ethics Commission and has been chosen to chair the newly-created Judicial Campaign Conduct Commission, which will set guidelines for the 200+ judicial races on tap for next year, including 5 Supreme Court seats.

Wilhoit was unavailable for comment for this story, but the addition of Wilhoit would certainly shake-up that race. While both Noble and Wilhoit are registered Democrats, many Democratic activists believe that Wilhoit's bona fides are much stronger, as before his judicial career he twice ran for Attorney General, losing in 1975 by just 2,000 votes to Robert Stephens. He was also the Sixth District chairman of several of Wendell Ford's statewide races, and he's certainly the most experienced jurist of the three candidates.

At least one prominent Democratic figure told me this week that while they had planned to back Mary Noble's candidacy, the talk of a possible entry by Wilhoit would make them rethink their support.

Also, Governor Fletcher has certainly not done his own party any favors by appointing Roach and forcing him to defend this seat one year later, since 2006 is an election year without a presidential or senate race, and in the Sixth Congressional District (where most of Roach's district lies), Congressman Ben Chandler is not expected to face stiff opposition.

Many believe (as do I) that Roach on the ballot will serve as a referendum on Governor Fletcher's performance in office which will motivate Democrats to turn out to vote in an otherwise unexciting election year. How might such a turnout affect close legislative races, especially where incumbent Republicans are in peril. For example, there is ample talk that Nancy Jo Kemper, Executive Director of the Kentucky Council of Churches, or former Supreme Court Justice James Keller might challenge Senator Alice Forgy Kerr. John Roach on the general election ballot might have an enormous role in whether Forgy Kerr, and other Republican legislators, keeps their seats.

This probe gets more and more interesting by the day.

Comments

[Ed]

I'd love to see Wilhoit enter that race. Maybe we'd get lucky and Roach wouldn't make the runoff.

[Eric]

Wouldn't Chandler not facing much of a challenge perhaps help Roach. My guess would be the more low key the races the better for incumbents across the board.

[Michael]

In light of the issues pertaining to our current sitting Chief Justice, the upcoming election of Justice Roach, the fact that nearly every judgeship in the state will be on a very crowded ballot in 2006, and the concern over judges and freedom of speech, should we not be looking at another issue whose time might have come? Eg., the independence of our judiciary.

Most voters know little about judicial races and the candidates as it is, and then raise the spectre of partisan politics, it might be worth considering a new method. Take a look at Jefferson County with over 60 judges on the ballot!! Just some thoughts about an alternative plan or method to keep the robes from even appearing soiled.

[PBG]

There is a rumor that the fringe groups like Focus on the Family and other re-packaged Christian Coalition types plan to help many of the judicial challengers in 2006 by viciously attacking the incumbents regarding sensational cases. Noble should be wary of any case in which she may appear lenient as to the criminal who committed a subsequent sensational crime. Remember, Scorsone in '98 (rape ad) against Fletcher. That may seem like kids play.

[Ky blog watch]

Hey Mark and Mark's readers:

I'm a BluegrassReport junkie and a independent Ky moderate (a rare breed these days)...

I've started a blog that covers the Ky politics blogs like a spectator sport. I'm critical of the Report this morning, but check out my slam of Conservative Friends...

http://kyblogwatch.blogspot.com/

[Steve]

Sounds like a lot of wishful thinking to me by Democrats living in a fool's paradise! Just come up with some ideas and a real positive program to make KY better and maybe the party will regain its prominence.

Judge Wilhoit would be the strongest candiate against Roach. He certainly has more experience and will uphold the law to the fullest.

Judge Wilhoit would be a great candidate. He's got the experience to be a Supreme Court Justice. That would be an interesting race.

[Steve]

Judge Wilhoit is a man of great intellect and integrity.

[Mark Nickolas]

Hmmm. Do I dare conclude from these comments that both sides of the political spectrum think Wilhoit is a good candidate? That's a rarity.

[Scottie]

I agree that Judge Wilhoit would be an excellent choice for the Kentucky Supreme Court. Judge Noble would not be a bad choice either.

While the Central Kentucky Supreme Court race will be interesting, I think there will be several interesting Supreme Court matchups. This is especially true out in far-Western Kentucky for Justice Graves' seat.

Although, I don't see Keller running for the Kentucky State Senate. While he would defeat an extremely ineffective senator rather soundly, I simply can't see why Keller would run for it.

[Jules]

Amen to the comments about non-partisanship in judicial races! If our so-called leaders could just get over themselves and their childish jockeying for power and get on with the business of the PEOPLE, we'd all be a lot better off. If Roach is the Rep's golden boy and Wilhoit ends up being the Dem's golden boy, our best candidate would be the moderate, Judge Noble. Golden Gal?

[JD]

It appears this blog has thrown its support to Anthony Wilhoit, an honorable but long-retired judge who hasn't wielded a gavel in years. Mark I hope you don't turn this web site into a mouthpiece for your favorite political cronies and campaigns.

Truth of the matter is Judge Mary Noble has the best mix of academic achievement and judicial experience to join the high court. She isn't looking for a post-retirement opportunity to pad her pension while joining the legion of Democratic double-dippers in Frankfort. More important, Kentucky women need a strong voice within our judiciary. She's clearly the best choice.